Comments
Transcript
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ELWell presented analysis
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arGreat analysis AND a Bible reference?! A+
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TDOne of the best videos in a while!
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JLI hope this knowledgeable man will make a comeback to RV in the future ! Very good video
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GKJust watched it again, this guy is amazing
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WMSomething is seriously wrong, yes you are Michael.
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JDInject this interview into my veins. I was buying everything, but especially the commentary on the Fed feeding inequality.
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KRAs a long term investor I agree that buy and hold should be the preferred method of investment. The reality is however, is that it does not work that way. We trust an advisor who has all the credentials to prove he/she knows what they are doing. But then they are forced to sell crap, they are told to push onto their clients by their employers. I waisted 30 years with a professional investment company, who made me less than 3% after promising 10% over the 30 years. The problem is there is no integrity in the industry, and no clear set of rules for people to follow, to invest for the long term. And so we look for investments that will go up over the short term ( I made $15,000 on Tesla with a small investment) So now we have Gold and silver to invest in for the long term and I very happy to finally see a light at the end of the tunnel - that's why it is so disappointing that some so called professionals are now saying it is not going to happen? Is it any wonder that investors are disillusioned and wandering blind in the forest!
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DTAm I the only one who doesn’t get the treasury selloff narrative? Michael, can you please elaborate? The implied expected inflation in tips and nominal treasuries is c.1.5% which is not unprecedented, although it is higher since March and there are reasons for the reflation narrative to continue so I get this part. The dollar is c.10% off its recent peak the same DXY or EURUSD levels were not inflationary two years ago? I get it that the rate of change matters, but still, the current dollar levels are nowhere near to levels where importing inflation would be a reality. Also, the current dynamics of lower treasury yields / flattening curve and increasingly negative tips make perfect sense in the era of unprecedented debt monetization by the fed and artificially suppressed yields and potential YC control. It would be interesting to see the data showing higher treasury yields during periods of QE. I think the higher inflation expectations can also be priced in via stagnating / lower nominal yields and increasingly negative tips when you consider unprecedented fed support, potential YC control, unlimited QE programs, direct monetization, etc. Also, the second part of the narrative being the sudden realization of deflationary pressures and yield drop would imply that the entire reflationary narrative is BS, probably a dollar reversal as well. Is this part entirely coming the ‘87 playbook? Nice ideas though and interesting thought process!
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CXJust watched it again.
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CXThis is a rare great show.
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FHI know you both attempt to keep politics out of the discussion. Yet, Sometimes it's obvious that you view Trump as the issue and the one who is playing politics with Econ. I and many think its the opposite and the dems holding up Econ stimulus in attempt to keep Econ down for election. Politics actually does matter and the economic vision from R and D this year couldn't be further apart. Perhaps and interview that discusses economic policies and consequences of Dem or Republicans victory in 2020. Aloha
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AMHis twitter feed is killer, worth a follow. He also engages which is a nice perk
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DRYes I liked it a lot!
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lf21 min in - super informative so far!
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TRBrillant. And very well articulated .
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FSThis was one of the best market specific videos to date. It's very rare to listen to an asset manager who can clearly articulate the importance of a repeatable math based systematic process. Especially one based on forward indicators of monetary policy (i.e. Growth and Inflation). This is one of the first money managers I have listened to that I feel like I could trust with my money. A manager focussed on the big picture as well as the math to caculate the rate of change of the rate of change in rates and policy. To generate alpha the best managers have figured out how to front run the fed and position accordingly. Whoever found Gayad, nice work! The best managers are usually not the ones highlighted on CNBC. They are the quiet achievers and out of the box solutionists. I also like that Gayad was comfortable enough citing biblical reference. These are the Universal laws that reign supreme over city, state or federal laws. Mean Reversion is riddled throughout the Bible. Thank you RV.
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ABIt’s been a good week for RV content this week.
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FLInteresting points about small cap outperformance. I do think we'll continue to see large companies get larger but I wonder if investors are pricing in higher taxes and antitrust sentiment that could be down the road
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DPVery good
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HRWell done RV!
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NHAbout what's next - Michael Gayed said sounds like as the yield curve goes up, which is starting now. It is Bullish for stocks, then when there is an over-reaction look out below for stocks.
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NHThis guy is off the hook. Definition of Real Vision!
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CDunless his fund's strategy has changed over the years, I'm a bit skeptical of his indicators given his fund's under performance from inception to January 2020. At least give an explanation as to why you think it under performed for so long, it was completely ignored, otherwise I don't buy the strategy and recent performance is an anomaly.
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JMGreat interview. Why increase taxes though if government can keep printing?
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SWOne of the best videos I've seen on RV, just kept saying to myself 'correct, correct, correct' I'm on-board with this strategy + BTC!
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GKPure brilliance, this is guy is amazingly insightful. One of the best RV interviews.
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MKinteresting interview. great job.
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spthe most annoying narrator ever.
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PQCongrats on the great track record Michael - PQ
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jHExcellent thoughtful on how to trade.
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MGThis is Michael Gayed - around the 19 minute mark I mispoke (meant to say save capitalism with socialism). Thank you all for watching.
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SBI thought the idea of relative strength in utes and treasuries preceding risk off was interesting. Great interview. The only thing that was a little annoying was the background skyline was faked in, and often cut out, giving the impression that Gayed only had one ear, and distracting me to wonder what his real background scene was! I'd like to see Gayed again in a future interview.
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NRTrend versus Path. Tres important...
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SKOutstanding Michael, very insightful...thank you.
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ABExcellent. Please bring him back on again.
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JFI was originally skeptical, but if you overly his fund on the performance of Brevan's Macro fund it looks at least in-line.
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NFThe comments on the Fed were pure gold.
Chapters
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Defining Risk-on and Risk-off
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What Factors Do You Monitor to Determine Risk-On vs. Risk-Off?
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The Current Environment
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Are Treasurys Still a Safety Asset at These Levels?
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What's Next From the Fed?
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How Are You Thinking About Equity Allocation at the Moment?
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Indexing vs. Cap-Weighting and the Future of Mega-Caps
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What Will it Take For Emerging Markets?
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The Death of Buy and Hold
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Squaring Long Term Views with a Weekly Tactical Mandate