Gold a crowded trade? See Grant Williams presentation - Nobody Cares - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qnZHMmCjpQ8

Younger generations have had to put their lives on hold and at risk for generations fighting in wars. Don't buy into this generation unfairness. The banking industry is the abuser of young and old, let it be told. This guys narrative only muddies the waters.

bonds yields are low because states and companies owe a lot of debt, so they will never let yields go up dont you think?

We don't need inflation. Bonds need to be issued with an ability for the younger generation now to void them later or adjust the rates. If we did that they would be priced accordingly. Of course we can not do this, but something needs to reign in the borrowing of current generations to the detriment of the people now too young to know. Furthermore, inflation worked great in a 20th century economy. Everyone got a 3% COLA (makes the working class feel richer - even if costs are increasing), everyone works long term for a company that can gradually raise prices and give those regular pay raises, and the whole system works in sync. Planned inflation is a 20th C idea and will not work in the 21st century where having a quality of life and balance, is the goal for many. This usually means more self employed (no auto 3% COLA for them), freelancers, contract workers, work from home, etc so that they can have that balanced life. Higher rates benefit everyone except large asset owners. So yes higher rates would hurt the "voter"class, ie people over 55 with lots of home equity and larger 401k balances (and risk takers). Higher rates benefit savers, people who want to buy assets and people who can not handle high coat of living increases (younger and lower income people). This is a huge concept that needs more than a few paragraphs to discuss. But it is a serious problem to be stuck with 20th C thinking in government, government spending, policy makers, tax policy etc. PS point - We need to find out a way to reduce the cost to EXIST for everyone and find other ways to get tax revenue (and reduce some gov't) That means property tax system goes away etc. This would go far to alleviate poverty. Far too high a cost to simply exist. I welcome thoughts on this...

Well, I listened to this 5 times. Lots to think about in terms of wealth transfer. Thank you RV again for the top-notch platform.

“Bonds are not an economic signal anymore?” Really? Why did the Fed push rates down so forcefully? Because of what they were seeing in the economy. Why did they roll out a surfeit of three and four letter programs to prop up agency, municipal, corporate bonds? Because of the credit and solvency risks appearing in the {recession, depression} economy. The signals are there but with a band pass filter applied by the Fed for investment grade and ‘fallen angels’.

Gold may / will become a crowded trade, but I don’t think at this point in the cycle you can make that argument, unless of course you are bearish.

Very good information and observations, but very difficult to understand his voice or accent; at least for me.

I understand the point about how inflation would benefit younger generations due to the higher debt loads they carry but how much of that positive gets negated by the reduction in their purchasing power that could also occur? (Wages not keeping up with price increases)

I do worry about millennials who come from lower income families. As for the millennials that come from the middle to upper class families, they have led much better lives than their baby boomer parents lived while young. Think of the trillions of dollars their baby boomer parents spent on them. In addition, thousands will receive trillions of dollars as their parents pass. Coronavirus is only the tip of the iceberg of financial problems. We will defeat ourselves by the blaming any group. Yes Dorothy, we can destroy our economy. Watch. DLS

I'm investing in pitchforks.

Inflation is coming!

I really love Real Vision but this time the intergenerational conflict issue is being pushed farther than the facts allow. 1st Deluard says that the death rate for the younger generation is essentially zero then he says they are putting their life at risk working service type jobs. So, if they can't die from it how are they putting their lives at risk working those jobs? This of course is nonsense. From Johns Hopkins at: https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-and-covid-19-younger-adults-are-at-risk-too "Data in a March 16, 2020, report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) are showing that younger adults are also getting COVID-19, and some are requiring hospitalization, even intensive care. For example, the CDC report shows that as of March 16, 2020, 508 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 in the U.S. Of these, 38% were between 20 and 54 years old. Half of those ending up in intensive care were younger than 65. Officials in Europe are noting the same trend, with reports that half of serious cases in France and the Netherlands are in people under age 50." 38% is hardly zero. In reality this argument can be abstracted to a simple idea - the rich are doing much better than the poor or middle class and they, meaning the rich, are rigging the rules for their own interest and that the "underlings" are getting restless. Sadly this is all true so no new news here. The conflict here is between the rich and the remainder of the population - age has little to do with it.

A lot of people seem to have missed his point. He wasn't whining, as some have said, or being a proponent of anything or against anything, he was describing what he thinks will happen when generations look out for their own interests, which people are known to do sometimes. This all made a lot of sense to me. And it's not just millennials who need inflation -- the entire world needs a reset, via a de facto debt jubilee.

I'm a Boomer. I have said from the beginning of the crisis that everyone under 60 or with high risk factors should go to back to normal. The economic pain cure on families and long term harm to the economy is worse than the disease.

Would have been nice to actually lay out the trades he thinks are best...

This video is millennial propaganda. The victimization is nauseating.

If it’s cheap to own inflation wouldn’t the easiest trade be buying TIPS? I know TIPS are indexed to the CPI, and there are a whole host people arguing about manipulation of the CPI’s set of inputs. Anyone have thoughts on this?

This man demonstrates incredible awareness (inter- and intra-) and shrewdness.

I will listen to this video tomorrow. I enjoyed Mr. Deluard’s presentation before. I do not want, however, to ruin a good bottle of red wine tonight with a narrative structured on the fourth turning. I know this concept is very popular and sounds erudite. The following is an edited quote from Wikipedia giving both sides: “Academic response to the theory has been mixed—some applauding Strauss and Howe for their "bold and imaginative thesis" and others criticizing the theory as being overly-deterministic, unfalsifiable, and unsupported by rigorous evidence.” (More information is given in Wikipedia.) I will enjoy listening to the presentation for information purposes only. If you are using the fourth turning as a narrative structure and it helps you to invest, then I am happy for you and wish you good luck in your investments. DLS

His thesis seem to be that we (the young) are sacrificing our situation to benefit the old. I kinda disagree with this perspective. As far as I am concerned I am staying in lockdown so that we don't overwhelm our health care system.

Let me get my tiny tiny violin out for this guy and his generation! "It's not fair . . . . . " typical of that generation.

With the crises that we are passing through, I suspect that the elections this fall are going to bring about some big changes. The focus right now is mostly on the presidential election, but I would not be surprised to see the biggest turnover in the congress and senate in a generation or more. And with all the leadership in the hands of people in their 70s and 80s, it is probably time for a change. They certainly have not shown themselves to be especially competent or adept. This campaign season could be more interesting than we have seen in recent years. And who knows what a younger generation in congress might undertake. I don't expect a lot of improvements, to tell the truth, but changes, yes.

United Airlines is offering to sell 39 million shares of stock when the stock price is nearly 70% lower, hoping to get a billion dollars back on the company's balance sheet. United Airlines used over 80% of its free cash flow, or 1.6 billion dollars, to buy back stock in 2019 alone. If this information is correct, it is an excellent example of buying high and selling low. Bailing out extremely good executive performance like this will certainly save the economy. DLS

If I were advising public or private pension plans with pension funds, I would tell them to exit them or remove the defined covenants. Do what everyone else did in the 70s and set up retirement funds. Most people realized that defined pension plans cannot be funded. As we move into the depression caused by a thousand things, defined pension plan will identify the dinosaurs both private and public. DLS

Gold is not your bet choice for protection against inflation. Look into Bitcoin (BTC). Soon we'll see it surpass Gold in stock/flow.

Excellent analysis! each bear market adds more excesses and distortions and unintended consequences. the cure has become worse than the problem but we can't seem to reverse course...ever. a lot of inflation and/or generational debt jubilee etc. all seem inevitable over the next few years

Very interesting. Raoul (among many others in the space) has stated that the bond market is the real market and that it generally knows what's going on. And from my personal journey in public markets that certainly seems to be the case. Mr. Deluard is saying however that does not hold up using evidence gathered over a longer time horizon. Some fascinating implications and exemplary of the diversity of opinion one can find here.

I don't understand how it's possible to stimulate the "real" economy without stimulating the "financial" economy. Given that governments don't produce anything, they must make use of taxes and especially debt to finance their spending, and, in the end, are completely dependent on central banks. Which means that any government must be intertwined with the most powerful financial institutions of the world. I have a very simple stimulus policy proposal: no more stimulus, get governments and central banks out of the way, just leave the people alone so that they can figure out how to come up with solutions to the crisis which will surely be more effective than any centrally planned and stimulated economy.

The gold trade is overcrowded? Really? How can that be true when almost no institutional investors hold gold and where we have not even recovered to 2012 price levels?

Have heard the inter-generational conflict thesis before but it has increasing resonance in my opinion. This is likely to play out over the course of the decade as evolution not revolution. Like it or not the generations after the boomers will have to rebuild institutions but healthcare insurance model in particular is a poster child for debauching of the social contract. Lived through the miasma of the 70's but a lot of things happened in that era (good and bad) with inflation or stagflation returning seeming like a reasonable scenario.

A little more than a few seconds on the trade thesis would have been nice. Felt cut off at the end there.

Another proponent of MMT!