Comments
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bmLong term I agree that Australia will be reasonably good (Good demographics and good resources). But in the short term they will suffer from problems in China and their household debt.
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LCNot likely China will be able to reach a trade deal with the US because they can't afford to open their markets AND maintain the RMB peg. Given they can't float their currency either, they're stuck. I think they'll try to wait out Trump's presidency.
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DPThe Fed's rate decisions at this point are nearly 100% based on level of 10 year and S&P 500. The employment data and wage data are utterly unimportant to them at this point. They are asset targeting and, obviously, in the equity markets daily. Within 5 years we will be full Japan, with Fed actively and openly buying the S&P...
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RBHe must be living in a parallel universe! The Chinese economy is falling off a cliff and they're simply short on USD reserves. There's a reason why the Chinese government keeps announcing fiscal measures every other month as well looses its monetary policy (be it benchmark interest rates as well as changing the banking reserve ratios). Moreover, capital flow restriction on all citizens (i.e., $150 a day withdrawal for all citizens - as far as I know) exist because of China'S USD shortfalls!! What George Soros describes as reflexivity (i.e., where the divergence between the objective reality and fictions we create become so great) is best demonstrated by Joe's views. I mean this with the utmost respect - eventually, the constructed myths (i.e., the recurring mentions of how the Trade war is about to end) reflects what we wish would occur is wishful thinking - the only question is how many more people / market participant truly subscribes to this story?
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KDCouldn't disagree more on the trade deal being good for Australia. I suppose you could argue that in the long run it's critical for Australia that the US and China have open trade, but in the short to medium term look at the content of the trade deal...China to increase purchases of US goods including: - Natural gas - Beef - Wine - Other resources and agricultural products .... these will displace, in large part, Australian goods. All this alongside China blocking some Australian coal imports and the bursting of the Australian property bubble. If the market is stupid enough to buy Australian dollars following a US-China trade deal, I'll be happy to trade some more of mine.
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GFI would not be so sanguine about a trade deal between the US and China. There are certainly advisers close to Trump who want to drive a harder bargain than China can tolerate. And I think the failure to sign a deal with NK in Hanoi a few days ago was a clear warning to China that the US means business. Can you imagine the loss of face for Xi if he flew into Mar-a-Lago to meet with Trump and sign the trade deal, only to have some last-minute conditions added on the US side, and he turns around and flies home without a deal? I don't say that this is a likely outcome, but it's a lot more likely than it would have been before the Hanoi debacle. As for Brexit, time is running short and tempers are rising.
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LSThe Australian view is wrong in my view, its about to have its first recession in many years and I agree with Kyle Bass on China so little joy for Aust.
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mlA trade deal is not the end all and be all. Short-term pick-up may occur, but the issues are bigger than the trade dispute.
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PBI disagree with this idea. This is not 2016 again. A trade deal isn't going to solve the global slow down, nor is credit stimulus.
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JHAgree with Steve H. here, who put it very well — lots of beliefs and a good amount of dogma, but unfortunately scant concrete data or reasoning provided for his bullish stance.
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RSI have never heared so many alternative facts at a time. I wonder why I can find such a clueless guy on realviaiontv
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ggLove Joes unpretentious commentary. The likelihood of better growth in the 2nd half is non trivial. Keep bringing him back pls
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PUgarbage
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CBThe bulls are emboldened by several decades of money printing. As long as the bulls have their monetary methadone, nothing can get them down.
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SHOne can always be confident that Mr. Trevisani's arguments won't be overburdened with data.
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KWwhat the hell did i just read??
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JAWhew! That was a quick recession. Glad that’s over! And, wow! Look at how cheap the market is now, after that correction...