Late to the party here, and while I agree the ED monetary system has serious problems, he seems to utterly ignore the possibility of another Plaza Accords. Trump won't be President forever and a conclave of G10 to depreciate the USD would be in the cards if the pain were to get that bad. I hear the cry, "but the EU and Japan will implode." Possibly, but might that also cause them to invest domestically and regionally and make the economic engines of the world a bit more stable and interconnected?

God damn this was a hell of a call...

I keep coming back to this clip because Brent’s dollar milkshake theory is the only view that explains why the dollar, US equities, and US fixed income markets are all simultaneously at or close to highs. He correctly predicted that US equities will trade higher, but at the same time is pessimistic longer term. Love that term global credit super cycle.

did u give schiff his gold coin?

Despite all this easy money easy money, and yet my (and probably yours too) credit card is charging 20%+ APR and my deposits at the large banks are paying shit

Can someone tell Brent Johnson to stop parroting word for word what Martin Armstrong is saying. Its pathetic.

Do not bet on a world recession while MMT is waiting in the wings. All sovereigns and the EUROcrats will print currency until no one will take it. This will be a long time. Gold will work eventually, and Bitcoin if it lasts. Do not bet on any world monetary agreement. It can be broken in a heartbeat by the smarter FX market. Defined pensions plans held by non-fiat printing sovereigns are the canaries in the coal mine. People are retiring daily and there is not enough money to payout the defined pension now much less in the future. Employees get the shaft. The above is just common sense. Of course, “common sense can pass for genius” when everyone believes that printing money will save the world. DLS

Can someone please explain how to put on the Canadian Bankers' Acceptance Notes options trade? I am already long Eurodollars Dec2020, 99 Strike.

Debt can be rolled.. Doesn't need to be paid back, if financial conditions are normal.

U.S: I DRINK YOUR MILKSHAKE! I drink it up.

if the USD goes higher,substantially, relative to CAD , then the Banque of Canada , ultimately would not be able to cut dramatically: They would have to defend the currency, no ? Otherwise given the place of US imports, in Canada for everyday products, we would see inflation go higher very quickly ... then when you factor the debt level of Canadians; they can't really swallow higher rates without crashing the housing market. Canada is in a terrible place, if Brent is right.

As a CDN investor who doesn’t trade future or options. Tried to think of a way to capitalize on the inevitable lowering of rates. Looking in to Bank Acceptances but I’m sure I won’t be able to play like a pro. I have been buying high grade fixed perp prefs that are non convertible and trade at a discount to par. Any peer feedback for me? Cheers, Todd

My research says the dollar is topping. Massive dollar buying has lead to a very slow strengthening. Not a good sign.

This is also roughly Martin Armstrong's thesis - it would be great to have him back on, last time was 2015 I believe.

Thx Brent for the update on the Milkshake ! is recent noise about "getting back to the organic growth of FED b/s" changing your view at all? - as purring some fresh milk into the glass could be enough to stop the Dollar run?

Phenomenal segment. This guy is a very linear and clear speaker. Please have him back more often.

i like milkshakes :D

i like his honesty - he's right, its all uncertain and its all about playing the probabilities .. gd segment

Loved the Tom Brad/Patriots analogy at the end. Beaut

Not sure about the strong USD will lead to higher US equities or asset prices? I think its rather complex and not as direct. 1) correlation coefficient between USD and US equities is sub 0.4 (20y period til 2011 and yes slightly outdated). Though its positive, its not that strong and if we take the past 20 years from 2019, I don't think it will be high. 2) You need USD to buy US based assets/equities etc - we currently have a significant USD shortage in the global market, and yes Brent correctly pointed out that the corporate bond market has issued $75-100bn its no way enough. The reason why I say its complicated is because you would need to take in account of corporate profits, US overseas operations, imports and exports, US and overseas M&A, geopolitical issues, etc etc. I wouldn't bet on US equities to break higher.. not because of valuations but I struggle to see what will drive US domestic growth? I don't think US consumers can bare the burden of carrying US economy for the next 12-18 months.

23:54 - Looking forward to the "Supernova" before this whole thing comes crashing down

Brent doesn't mention CAD FX risk. CAD = 75 cents USD currently. Canadian elections this month Oct 21st. Could be a minority Liberal or Conservative government - that will be chaotic....impact on FX??? Trudeau (Liberal 'leader') is very weak & rocked by various scandals.

Really, really good presentation! How / where do you buy Canadian bankers acceptance notes? Would appreciate it if you an answer about details of this trade. It seems to make a lot of sense to me.

With everyone so dollar bullish it doesn’t make sense that our yields are so much higher. Everyone in the world should be piling into treasuries.

Brent sounds like Marty Armstrong Jr - which I mean as a compliment not an insult

Most of the CBs gold purchases are China and Russia because of the weaponization of the dollar. What other CBs are really increasing their gold reserves? DLS

Brent talks sense

The currency in which a company issues debt will (should) mostly depend on its currency mix of revenues. Corporations do this to create a natural hedge and to mitigate FX risk. If there is less of a need for a corporation to create the natural hedge, it will not reissue as much of its debt in USD.

I thought that was Brest best realvision interview. Brings up a bunch of interesting points but I don't get why people play the eurodollar trade or Brent's Canada trade if they think rates are going lower, why not just go with the gold trade? Is it because you can lever those up more? Also, I get how realvision isn't bubble vision and is a bit irreverent but I spent a good portion of the interview wondering where Brent was the night before. Was it a Dierks Bentley concert, Sugarland or some other modern country band? The unshaven look works so much better with an accent, when we Americans do it I don't think we come across as well...

This analysis seems largely dependent on predicting the Fed - i.e. that they won't start to catch up in terms of the depth of interest rate cuts in other countries, and that they won't print so much money that they guarantee an inflationary US environment. I understand you could argue that even if you get the fed call wrong, other countries will still need dollars to service their debt, but that alone would seem a far less compelling case for the kind of global deflationary pressure described here.

Brent is always interesting.

Great analysis! Thanks for the trade ideas!

Break the monetary system? CB’s will just watch the show? Nice theory and follow up from past episode, but nothing has happened yet for bulls or bears. Time will tell!