The Grand Supercycle Correction

Published on
July 20th, 2020
Duration
36 minutes


The Grand Supercycle Correction

The Expert View ·
Featuring Robin Griffiths

Published on: July 20th, 2020 • Duration: 36 minutes

"Be cautious. Be prudent. Own gold." This is the advice that Robin Griffiths, Head of Multi-Asset Research at T3 Report, RW Advisory, has for investors at this unique juncture of the market cycle. Griffiths warns that the equity market is significantly mispriced and advises that safe haven can be found in government bonds and gold, which he thinks could go to $3,000. Griffiths interprets the narrowness of the current market rally as a sign of its weakness, not its strengths, and explores whether the 1929 crash could serve as a good corollary to today’s market, as it is quite common for markets to rebound after an extreme sell-off. Filmed on July 16, 2020. Griffith's report with Ron William, "Own Gold, Sell Equities," can be accessed here: https://rvtv.io/2OAyqJl

Comments

Transcript

  • JS
    Johannes S.
    21 July 2020 @ 20:54
    I’m confused about his comments about millennials. What does he mean they’re too young and don’t drive the economy? Most of them are now between 30-40 years old, at the prime of their careers, starting businesses and driving innovation. A 45-year old is usually already past this prime and is just riding out on experience for the remainder of his/her career, but not driving new things anymore (of course there are exceptions). So I would disagree with him on that point.
    • JB
      Justin B.
      22 July 2020 @ 02:45
      Folks in their 40s, 50s, and 60s have had time to accumulate wealth and represent the largest piece of the pie.
    • RV
      Ryan V.
      27 August 2020 @ 16:38
      I was confused about this statement as well. I am a millenial and near the end of the generation and turning 30 this year. My career I am 10 years in and in a senior position. I am nowhere near at the start of things. If anything I am mid cycle. He is likely referring to Zoomers
  • IH
    Ian H.
    23 August 2020 @ 18:30
    A few mistakes in the subtitles could cause some confusion for the hard at hearing. At one point Robin says 'Covid virus', this was subbed as 'coup and virus'. Also where he clearly says 'punters' it was subbed with a question mark. Perhaps it's an American subtitler struggling with the posh English accent here. But despite that, it's one of my favourite interviews so far on Real Vision. I'm not being picky, merely some suggestions for improvement from a linguist.
  • JT
    Jayne T.
    24 July 2020 @ 00:00
    Sorry, I believe I missed the high quality ETF (non US, non UK) name that he referred to? Can someone help me out? Thanks!
    • SB
      Stephen B.
      29 July 2020 @ 19:30
      i have been trying to figure that out too
    • SG
      Stuart G.
      17 August 2020 @ 15:53
      See my post above about "Quality Factor", I think that's what he means.
  • SG
    Stuart G.
    17 August 2020 @ 05:46
    Hey guys I think I answered the ETF question. He's referring not to a specific ETF but to Quality Factor which is a term. There are a couple dozen ETFs to choose from https://etfdb.com/themes/quality-factor-etfs
  • DM
    DAVID M.
    2 August 2020 @ 20:08
    he never actually mentioned the etf? can someone find out please ?
  • DB
    Daniel B.
    20 July 2020 @ 23:05
    Does anybody know what Equity ETF he is referring to? I assume it is some sort of an international dividend aristocrat. Anyone have any suggestions?
    • SB
      Stephen B.
      29 July 2020 @ 19:28
      I would dearly love to know the answer to that question, too. I have been digging around but nothing obvious emerges.
  • HV
    Henrik V.
    21 July 2020 @ 16:01
    Huh, negative yield as insurance? How is negative yielding treasuries better than putting the money in a bank owned by government A 0%? Say a swiss Kantonalbank Mind you I’d just buy gold, but I don’t think that was the point
    • JM
      James M.
      27 July 2020 @ 19:50
      There is risk the bank declines to give you your money back. And there are upper limits to how much of your funds is insured by government if/when the bank goes bust. But more importantly if you have more, or way more, money you need to store somewhere, Treasuries are an option that scales (i.e., can absorb very high amounts of investor inflows.)
  • GE
    Glenn E.
    21 July 2020 @ 01:29
    Both my grand fathers lived through the depression. Nobody had money. My mother got 50 dollars to marry my father. Nobody had that money. My father had to have his grand father give the money. My mothers father was a school teacher. My dad's father was a black smith and had a dairy herd. They did not have 50 dollars between them. Things are going to suck until at least the first turning 20 years from now.
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      23 July 2020 @ 00:15
      I love thinking about this (scary as it might be) even though we are staring into at least a mini dystopia --- how do you see the rest of THIS decade going, Glenn?
    • MS
      Michael S.
      26 July 2020 @ 15:05
      And yet everyone lived through that and eventually prospered.
  • JD
    James D.
    21 July 2020 @ 02:54
    I enjoyed the interview, but I feel like the "long gold (and crypto), be scared of equities" view has been pretty solidly established on RV. I'd be excited to see more equity bulls, or an equity bull vs. bear debate a la Brent and Lyn, or trying get someone like, say, Cathie Wood or Beth Kindig to talk about equities opportunities in the tech and innovation space. Also I'd be really excited to have some experts on talking about what commodities - agricultural, uranium, non-gold metals like silver, copper, and rare earths, etc - might look like for the rest of the year.
    • VG
      Viktor G.
      21 July 2020 @ 09:18
      Agree. Including the mass media everyone is bullish on gold which cannot be a good thing for more upside in that commodity.
    • RD
      Rick D.
      21 July 2020 @ 14:20
      Yes, totally agree
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      21 July 2020 @ 22:15
      I disagree that everyone including the mass media is bullish on gold. Who owns it? It's a tiny space compared to equities and bonds. Gold is about $10T plus the gold equities. There's something like $270T in bonds. it's just gettin started. Follow the charts of real rates (real rates going down) and enjoy the ride up. I think a factor in the seemingly overcrowded trade is self-selection bias, where we are searching for information and trying to understand the mess we are in. This leads us to sites like RV, where the 0.5% (or whatever it is) of investing individuals land. That said, it is interesting to look robintrack.net to query around for GDX, GLD, etc. RV has done a pretty good job of laying the framework for how to invest for a future that includes inflation. This said, it would be nice to see additional content for positioning for inflation...which is pretty much a 2H 2021 story.
    • JK
      John K.
      23 July 2020 @ 06:59
      You have to remember a lot of the people on here are macro guys. They’re talking about the next 2 to 3 years of return. Which if we’re being honest isn’t looking pretty in this economy. Recessions and recoveries take years even if it is a self induced one. I think a short term trader may be more of what you’re looking for. Quite frankly I’m not sure how anyone can be bullish long term with unemployment being where it is currently
    • MS
      Michael S.
      26 July 2020 @ 15:01
      What Phillip B. says. Per Tavi Costa's recent slides, the entire gold industry has a market cap of just over $500 billion, which is 1/3 of ONE STOCK like Apple. Paul Brodsky once made the point, which probably still holds true, that because only 0.4% of world pension funds, mutual funds, private accounts, etc. own gold, rounded that's zero percent own gold. NO ONE OWNS GOLD. Except for the biggest gold bugs of all, sovereign treasuries and central banks, which, even being the biggest gold bugs in the world, still only hold a modest portion of their holdings in gold. Gold will not be a "crowded trade" until it's at something like $10,000, and even then it will just be reaching fair value, and ready for a bubbly overshoot of thousands of dollars. Buying and holding all the royalty companies (FNV, WPM, MMX, EMX, MTA, etc.) and sprinkling in selections of the weird second-rate miners who have difficult mines, are poorly run, and have silver leverage.
  • JB
    James B.
    26 July 2020 @ 06:49
    'Mug punters' has to be the best description for the Robinhood crowd I've heard yet!
  • RM
    Ron M.
    25 July 2020 @ 16:09
    needs to be a regular! Great stuff.
    • IN
      I N.
      26 July 2020 @ 00:55
      Second!
  • WB
    William B.
    25 July 2020 @ 23:43
    Very consistent with the other really smart people interviewed on RV. You can also watch the recent RV interview of Tavi Costa of Crescat Capital. Also, I would recommend Hedgeye. I believe it and am so invested. Very articulate. The British accent adds gravitas.
  • CR
    Cory R.
    20 July 2020 @ 21:38
    "Don't do anything stupid.. and own gold." Thanks Grandpa!
    • mn
      man n.
      20 July 2020 @ 22:07
      Sounds like pretty good advice to keep giving seeing how hard it is to invest in gold and play the long game hodl'ing 😅
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      21 July 2020 @ 14:05
      Investing in Gold is easy. Holding it just requires patience and an understanding of why you hold it.
    • AB
      Alastair B.
      21 July 2020 @ 20:04
      You hold it because one day you will be able to swim in it like Scrooge McDuck. Or is that just me?
    • CR
      Cory R.
      22 July 2020 @ 15:09
      No, I agree and my comment was good natured. I actually never knew my grandfathers so I got a bit of the "old man advice" here, well appreciated.
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      23 July 2020 @ 01:14
      Yes, Cory. Funny stuff. Atta boy Keith! Let's get that "lucky dime."
    • SW
      Stephen W.
      25 July 2020 @ 22:08
      I agree with his thesis and have done for 20 years but it always makes me nervous when they roll out the mature Etonian gold bugs. I get all '2011 wants its investment strategy back' and start watching Kitco. I know of course that this time it will be different!
  • AC
    Andrew C.
    23 July 2020 @ 02:36
    not much new here. Seems to spout the same lines that most others spout. I recommend listening to Grant’s interview with Mike Green. A better explanation on why bankrupt company stocks are rising.
    • AT
      Aananthan T.
      25 July 2020 @ 17:24
      Thanks - I was thinking this is quite superficial analysis and maybe it is that simple, but will check out grants interview.
  • TZ
    Tibor Z.
    23 July 2020 @ 22:56
    Finally a bear! These bulls drove me nuts!
  • RC
    Radigan C.
    23 July 2020 @ 22:11
    I love this guy. Sincerely hope I don't mince words and have great hair like him when I'm older.
  • BP
    Bradley P.
    23 July 2020 @ 02:08
    This has to be my favorite all-time interview on RV. "Don't be stupid". Please invite Robin back soonest!
  • AD
    Antonio D.
    20 July 2020 @ 14:49
    Good to listen to Robert thematically as his views generally align with the macro perspective - slow or stagnant recovery, possible re-closing of economy, government printing leads to need for defensive position - then from there make your portfolio based on a more modern perspective. For example, Robert points to gold which aligns with Raoul Pal / Luke Gromen / Brent Johnson / Lyn Alden but he doesn't expand into the pairings like silver / miners / junior miners In addition, his view on TSLA is parochial considering it only as a car manufacturer. Overall, good confirmation of an existing view we've heard on RV many times over.
    • SB
      Stephen B.
      21 July 2020 @ 19:01
      I find i agree with Raoul, Luke, Brent Johnson, Lyn and now Robin. I hope that is not confirmation bias :)
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      23 July 2020 @ 01:16
      Yes I wonder what he thinks of miners and royalty AU players
  • DS
    David S.
    20 July 2020 @ 19:21
    Enjoyable interview. Three caveats. Firstly, the decline in equity markets will be much faster because of ETF passive buying. Secondly, A basket of currencies plus gold will not replace the $US as the reserve currency soon. The $US will start to be replaced when international settlements can be made with blockchain technology. I do not believe this will be done with any digital currency, but by international banks. Thirdly, it will take a longer than expected as many people will still prefer to hold excess cash in $US. If the US economy tanks, then it will be faster. DLS
    • RD
      Rick D.
      21 July 2020 @ 14:31
      Why do you think international banks would use blockchain for settlements? Couldn't they just keep doing things the way they are at that rate?
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      23 July 2020 @ 01:15
      Really sharp predictions, David.
  • CH
    Chuck H.
    21 July 2020 @ 22:20
    I so appreciated the breadth and depth of Robin's perspective, and the credibility afforded by his history of navigating fifty years of markets and surviving with reputation intact. I also assign value to his mix of both technical and fundamental thinking. The fact that there is demand for his newsletter signifies that his is a reputation so valuable it's worth attention. I confess he "talks my book" therefore I'm at terrible risk of being blindsided by "confirmation bias." But investors, contrasted with traders, must act according to bias; it's inescapable. His demeanor is so down to earth; wish I could meet and get to know him. My portfolio has for some time reflected his views "to a 'T'" so I'll be in Robin's good company if my holdings turn to burnt toast. There's comfort in that. Thank you, RV.
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      23 July 2020 @ 00:08
      I agree my man, his timing fits my pretty much to a T. I foresee this plan as the greatest way to preserve value and earn real profits over the next few years. I was unsure at first but then he really put things together. Great stuff by Mr. Griffiths.
  • PE
    Paul E.
    21 July 2020 @ 21:15
    Very interesting! It was fascinating listening to his recall of history and how he put that in perspective with today and the near future. Great session!
    • PE
      Paul E.
      21 July 2020 @ 21:36
      Also, thanks for sharing the link to Mr. Griffiths, T3 – Trends, Tactics & Timing Monthly Report. It was well worth reading!
    • AG
      Audrey G.
      22 July 2020 @ 05:15
      Do u how to access the report from the link? Does one need a slack account to see it?
    • PE
      Paul E.
      22 July 2020 @ 22:58
      I just clicked on the link above and the report opened.
  • BT
    Billy T.
    22 July 2020 @ 15:12
    He mentions gold possibly to $5K or $10K but doesnt say what those "scenarios" are. What are they?
  • TR
    Thomas R.
    22 July 2020 @ 14:47
    It would seem that whatever the outcome of interest rates is will determine the depth of any bear market. Will we even have inflation that is measured as hot by governments at some point? and if we do, will the central banks attempt to counteract it at the detriment of the bond markets and ultimately equities as the risk bar/threshold gets raised or will central banks let it run hot and people pile into equities and other assets further, grasping for preservation of purchasing power?
  • PB
    PHILLIP B.
    21 July 2020 @ 23:36
    Wisdom. As usual from Mr. Griffiths.
  • DB
    Daniel B.
    20 July 2020 @ 23:46
    If the market is going to crash, where will the money go? The market will only buy so much gold and bonds. It seams more likely that the government will print enough money to keep assets prices above current levels as markets seek returns above zero.
    • SB
      Stephen B.
      21 July 2020 @ 19:10
      I agree. My belief is that we have a new normal, where the FED is going to go all out for inflation. Stability is yesterdays story. It will keep asset prices high in paper terms but erode confidence in the US$. That is how we get to deal with the sovereign/corporate debt levels. I suspect the basket thing only happens once confidence in the US$ has been seriously eroded so some years away. Either way, gold does well short and long term - and possibly spectacularly well.
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      21 July 2020 @ 22:19
      I agree that stability is yesterday's story and keeping asset prices high enough and eroding confidence in the USD is the new game. This said, if there is a downdraft this autumn, I will be vacillating between "is this 1929, or damn good time to deploy capital?"
  • DS
    David S.
    21 July 2020 @ 17:12
    Fascinating interview with a man who understands and has seen many market tops in his career. This one is no different...just a helluva lot bigger.
  • AS
    Ash S.
    21 July 2020 @ 07:53
    Great interview!
  • AR
    Anthony R.
    21 July 2020 @ 05:05
    Some are asking about Gold Equities. Yes, Ross Beatty is a great source of wisdom on this. But think about it from a purely logical standpoint: the value of what you produce is going way up. Your costs of production is set. All incremental dollars go to the bottom line unless your jurisdiction reassesses your taxes/fees. Thats the 'weighing machine' view. The 'voting machine' rule says there will be volatility along the way, of course.
  • JM
    John M.
    20 July 2020 @ 14:46
    I wonder what Robin thinks of silver or gold equities. He made no mention of it. Good interview. I enjoy hearing from the veterans who have been through many past bear markets and lived to fight another day! (Victor Sperandeo is another that comes to mind)
    • PP
      Patrick P.
      21 July 2020 @ 03:31
      John... do yourself a favor and watch all of the Ross Beasty videos on RV ... here is the link... https://www.realvision.com/tv/search/?parameters_query=ross+beaty Especially watch the video of him being interviewed by Grant Williams. Ross Beaty is the Babe Ruth of mining ...and if you follow him you will make a shit load of dough. I have and it's paid off in spades. Here's a little of his BIO ..he is a billionaire. https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/gold-billionaire-ross-beatys-unfinished-business
  • RO
    Robert O.
    20 July 2020 @ 06:24
    With such a strong conviction in a rising gold market he didn't comment on the gold equity space. Over the last two years the gold/silver miners have been leading the S&P and even the NASDAQ. What is the reason for choosing government bonds over large profitable gold/silver mining equities that pay a dividend?
    • UJ
      Ulf J.
      20 July 2020 @ 06:37
      I agree Robert Gold stocks did well in the 1930s
    • DO
      DIOGO O.
      20 July 2020 @ 11:59
      Maybe he is worried that in the coming bear market in equities, even the miners may fluctuate... but I don't know the answer for sure
    • PP
      Patrick P.
      21 July 2020 @ 03:30
      Robert/Diogo .... do yourselves a favor and watch all of the Ross Beasty videos on RV ... here is the link... https://www.realvision.com/tv/search/?parameters_query=ross+beaty Especially watch the video of him being interviewed by Grant Williams. Ross Beaty is the Babe Ruth of mining ...and if you follow him you will make a shit load of dough. I have and it's paid off in spades. Here's a little of his BIO ..he is a billionaire. https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/gold-billionaire-ross-beatys-unfinished-business
  • GE
    Glenn E.
    21 July 2020 @ 01:22
    Kyle Bass pointed out that the chineese currency has two types. Internal and external currencies. The external currency is in short supply. There is no way the chineese currency can be any reserve currency. The book the vampire economy written about prewar German describes the problems which are plaguing the chineese economy. Available on amazon kindle for less than 3 dollars
  • PB
    Paul B.
    21 July 2020 @ 00:58
    Well said Bro!
  • LF
    Liam F.
    21 July 2020 @ 00:36
    "Barking mad!!" No shit! Loved this interview. Not only because he totally reminds me of my British grandfather, but he's been at the game a long time thru many cycles. A well seasoned and reasoned player, IMO.
  • DF
    Diamantino F.
    20 July 2020 @ 17:12
    Basically a remix of the 2017 interview sprinkled with the word " Disease", still thank you for the wise information.
    • DG
      Dave G.
      20 July 2020 @ 23:50
      What he was saying this in 2017? OMG what was I thinking?
  • AR
    Alexander R.
    20 July 2020 @ 12:32
    Just to put some perspective into younger generation getting money from parents grandparents to psy off student loans. Many of this students never had to take loan, as family was saving for years in 529 etc It other word income inequality will persist and compound
    • DS
      David S.
      20 July 2020 @ 19:52
      For many reasons. DLS
  • BR
    Brian R.
    20 July 2020 @ 19:46
    great to get another perspective but could Robin please answer a couple of questions if not done already and if I missed it, sorry: 1. did the Fed increase M2 by 20% in the 1929 decline because what I have found is that they tightened conditions and when they tried to increase M2 it was too late. Further, is the pending solvency crisis likely to eat up how much of the current increase in M2? many thanks
  • JV
    Jan V.
    20 July 2020 @ 11:16
    On average stocks fell more than 80% during the great depression. I can't imagine all sectors doing so badly. Apart from gold miners any other sectors that outperformed in the 1930's? Not all money will flow to cash, gold and bonds imo.
    • JG
      Joshua G.
      20 July 2020 @ 18:33
      Bitcoin too
  • AB
    Alastair B.
    20 July 2020 @ 07:43
    A gentleman and a scholar. Thank you for filming this video.
    • AB
      Alastair B.
      20 July 2020 @ 07:52
      My major takeaway is the dust bowl may be to the agricultural sector in 1929 what the COVID lockdown is to the service sector today. Hmm.
    • JG
      Johan G.
      20 July 2020 @ 12:22
      What is the future of mega cities; they are pure service hubs?
  • JS
    Jon S.
    20 July 2020 @ 11:22
    Splendid! He is full of wisdom. Great choice. I will study this interview to the detail and note all authors he refers to. Thank you RV for bringing him.