The Inflation Inflection Point

Published on
October 10th, 2019
Duration
29 minutes

Up Next

Related Videos

Listen to the Bond Market: Major Risks Remain
The Expert View ·

Listen to the Bond Market: Major Risks Remain

Finding Opportunity in Junior Miners
The Expert View ·

Finding Opportunity in Junior Miners

What’s Next for the Dollar?
The Expert View ·

What’s Next for the Dollar?

Oil and Energy: Updating a Sector in Flux
The Expert View ·

Oil and Energy: Updating a Sector in Flux

“Macro is Back, Baby”
The Expert View ·

“Macro is Back, Baby”

The Great Reset
The Expert View ·

The Great Reset

The New Normal for Global Industry
The Expert View ·

The New Normal for Global Industry

Global Recession: What’s Next?
The Expert View ·

Global Recession: What’s Next?

Trading Through Turbulence: Portfolio Management in Uncertain Times
The Expert View ·

Trading Through Turbulence: Portfolio Management in Uncertain Times

Leveling the Playing Field with Decentralized Finance
The Expert View ·

Leveling the Playing Field with Decentralized Finance

The Future of Real Estate Post-Coronavirus
The Expert View ·

The Future of Real Estate Post-Coronavirus

Discipline and Dry Powder: It Pays to Be Prepared
The Expert View ·

Discipline and Dry Powder: It Pays to Be Prepared

Modeling the Macro Trades That Matter
The Expert View ·

Modeling the Macro Trades That Matter

Gold and Oil in a Post-Coronavirus World
The Expert View ·

Gold and Oil in a Post-Coronavirus World

Investing in the “Age of Fiscal Dominance”
The Expert View ·

Investing in the “Age of Fiscal Dominance”

Sowing the Seeds of Inflation and Intergenerational Conflict
The Expert View ·

Sowing the Seeds of Inflation and Intergenerational Conflict

“You Can’t Jawbone a Physical Oversupplied Market”
The Expert View ·

“You Can’t Jawbone a Physical Oversupplied Market”

The Uranium Catalyst Nobody Expected
The Expert View ·

The Uranium Catalyst Nobody Expected

The Unfolding
The Expert View ·

The Unfolding

The Straw That Broke the Camel’s Peg
The Expert View ·

The Straw That Broke the Camel’s Peg
16

The Inflation Inflection Point

The Expert View ·
Featuring Kit Juckes

Published on: October 10th, 2019 • Duration: 29 minutes

What happens to the economy if inflation expectations dramatically change? Kit Juckes, chief foreign exchange strategist at Societe Generale, reveals the implication of an aging economic cycle and a global trade recession that are pushing inflationary forces toward an inflection point. He says that those central banks with room to cut interest rates further will do so, and those that cannot will struggle significantly. Juckes argues that a change in the market’s acceptance of tight fiscal policy alongside extremely accommodative monetary policy could be the trigger for a new inflation regime. Filmed on September 19, 2019 in London.

Comments

Transcript

  • DF
    Dominic F.
    12 October 2019 @ 09:10
    7 0
    Great Interview. I love straight talkers :-)
  • RS
    Rob S.
    11 October 2019 @ 00:53
    1 0
    Would someone be able to explain his comment about the Japanese having to recycle the worlds biggest net international financial position every day? Thanks.
    • RK
      Roger K.
      11 October 2019 @ 20:53
      3 0
      Not 100% sure, but I think the Japanese are the net biggest creditor in the world. So they keep on eye on the risk-off situation to bring back their cash into the country. Hence in a major risk-off situation, JPY tend to go up as a safe heaven trade. In another discussion , sure fire trade in a coming months is an appreciation of JPY as JCB has run out of ammunition , While FED cuts the rates.
  • MT
    Michael T.
    10 October 2019 @ 21:35
    2 0
    Great Interview, Thanks!
  • CB
    Christopher B.
    10 October 2019 @ 11:23
    2 0
    Shouldn’t easy fiscal policy weaken domestic currency?
    • RK
      Roger K.
      10 October 2019 @ 19:42
      0 0
      I think that's the first step, but with fiscal policy ( increasing Monetary base vs Money supply ) it creates more actions , transactions and thus increasing velocity of money creates much needed inflation hence CB has to increase the IR hence the value of money ( FX rates). So the market will position 2 steps ahead to reap the benefit.
  • MS
    Malcolm S.
    10 October 2019 @ 15:40
    5 0
    I would think the probability of a Plaza Accord equivalent deal is low due to the trade wars America is waging against the rest of the world. Why would countries who are negatively affected by the US trade wars be willing to work with the US to make the US more globally competitive by helping devalue the USD?
  • DH
    Dale H.
    10 October 2019 @ 15:35
    4 1
    I'm very doubtful that gold will be able to continue to be bottled up once inflation really hits hard in the ROW. India has jacked up import taxes on gold AGAIN to 12.5%, which Indians will pay anyway once they realize how the rupee will be bushwhacked.
  • BA
    Bruce A.
    10 October 2019 @ 13:01
    14 0
    This guy is a hoot. Love his down to earth, easy manner. Great overview and forecast info also.
  • DS
    David S.
    10 October 2019 @ 07:06
    3 1
    Great overview; odds are in Mr.Juckes' predictions favor. DLS

Chapters

  1. 00:01:47
    What's Been Driving Bond Yields in 2019?
  2. 00:02:36
    Where do Bond Yields go From Here and Why?
  3. 00:04:07
    Are Central Banks in Control of Yields or Are Yields Driving Monetary Policy?
  4. 00:05:07
    Compare U.S. and European Bond Yields over the past 30 years
  5. 00:08:02
    What does this mean for the U.S.?
  6. 00:09:02
    What is the outlook for Risk Assets?
  7. 00:12:30
    How will Fiscal Policy impact Inflation?
  8. 00:14:54
    What comes next - Recession or Stable Low Growth?
  9. 00:16:36
    What are the Risks of a US Dollar surge?
  10. 00:18:00
    Is the US coming back to QE?
  11. 00:19:44
    What is your outlook on Japan?
  12. 00:21:25
    Can anything change US Dollar hegemony?
  13. 00:24:55
    How do you play the current environment?
  14. 00:26:41
    How would you summarize your views?