Comments
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WACould we have Niels back and see what are his current views.
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HOWould recommend his book “The End of Indexing”. There are a couple of chapters that lay out the argument for why passive flows will start to dry up. Yes, there are some pretty consensus views about demographics, etc, but that shouldn’t overshadow the implications for market structure when/if ETF aum starts to shrink.
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PDHis most interesting observation is that if the entire market is crowded into short trades, there must be opportunities in the long end (eg. 5+ year outlooks). But (other than buying gold as an inflation hedge) it's hard to identify any good risk-adjusted long-term bets.
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KCOld guy who has seen a debt and demographics chart cries the end of the world is coming. Seen this a hundred times on this platform. New content please.
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RMTime to change the segment music.
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CM"We could relatively easily fix these problems...if we let in more immigrants." Sure, go ahead and blow up one's culture and societal cohesion to satisfy an academic model where the prognosticator has no skin in the game. This chap is hopeless...
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SFI wonder whether the linear logic of his assumptions, which are built substantially on historical outcomes and consensus predictions, are such a reliable road map for that greatest of all oxymorons, the foreseeable future? He is right that we have crap demographics and have dragged generations of consumption from the future, but, I think reflexivity and technology will play a substantial part in our attempts to change the course we are on. The whole arc of history would suggest innovation is the reliable mother of invention.
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NHexcellent video. I have been reading Niels writings for many years and they are always thought provoking.
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RKVery good interview. Also left me pretty depressed ;) Shorting growth against value is something I thought about (and luckily not implemented yet). Maybe we are getting there.
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NOReally intelligent and thought-provoking analysis. Great framework, but executing would be very tricky while maintaining some degree of diversification (though I accept this is a much over-rated concept) and variety of exposures. Would seem to be a natural approach for pension funds, the largest part of his firm's client base, who can readily access the necessary specialist managers. Not sure how smaller pools of assets can benefit from this approach. Any ideas?
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XPLooks like he focuses on institutional investors, but retail can access these same strategies via Blu Family Office. Being able to get income via trade financing and other longer term deals looks very interesting as an alternative not usually available to small investors, as long as you can lock up the capital for a while.
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JAGreat mega long term trends that he identifies and it's hard to disagree with any of the points. As an active investor executing on the ideas is far harder though due to a) timing of trends is so hard to predict and b) access to such investments (I.e. trade finance) is highly specialist and generally only for large pool of capital (family office / pension) and not for those with <$5mn of investable capital .... albeit happy to be proven wrong !
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GLIt seems, re: the rise of the east, that their ability to grow is massively dependent on developed countries purchasing their goods and FDI. A global turndown will seem to have a knock on effect (high five, RV) that would seem to mitigate this effect.
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SMCan retail investors invest in trade finance?
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BMRaoul, just wondered why this was filmed in mid-April but not released until mid-July? Excellent interview...thanks.
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CSWonder if he had any love for commodities? Perhaps Uranium, if electric was the go.
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CBThank you for sharing your views. I feel like I am hearing a long dollar argument embedded into these views.
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jSReally liked his common sense approach and his thoughts on how this might all play out. I’m glad someone is finally talking about the end of the debt cycle as no one else seems to be. Most so called experts all play down the debt but this gentleman nails it. Hasn’t heard of him before but loved this one. Thanks RV. By the way what’s happened to Grant???
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SSJust Fantastic! Excellent work as macro future and actionable info. Thank you!