Agreed, are you the target demographic RV has in mind though? (as opposed to actual)

just listen to Luke gromens constant appearances on macro voices

I hear dollar shortage (that’s hard to grasp anyway).... but i hope i understand the reasoning behind it. How can others (luke gromen f.i. ) think the dollar will fall ......

Actually Luke Groman be correct, but he has the worst case of confirmation bias I've ever seen

LOLOL!!!

He is interviewed regularly on the MacroVoices podcast with Erik Townsend. At least once or twice a month.

Thanks for your comment. Mr. Snider should interview someone from the banking system who believes he knows what is going on. We could all learn knowing more of the story. Mr. Snider is doing a great deal of good discussing it and bringing it to our attention. He may still be correct. DLS

You are right, this is scaring the sh*t out of me. Should we sell all our investments, and do like China, Poland, and Russian Central Banks, who accumulate Gold like Hell ?

And by the way, Gold shoot up dramatically after this date Jeff keep on mentioning, of 2019 May 29th.....so there is REALLY something going on.

David, yeahbut the someone we need from the banking system would be a lead trader, not the suits or managers or PR who they send out to talk instead (because the trader might "say something" lol). Stephane, yes load up on gold on the dips (real gold not the ETF's) just as the CB's are. Because per this video's title, the monetary system is broken, and the banking system in all major regions are fubar'd and it only takes one to collapse 'em all like dominoes via contagion. If you hold a financial investment, hold it only in certificate or direct registration form. But real assets might be the better class over the next decade as Ray Dalio has explained at length lately.

where do we go to get the reports on offshore baking activities that would answer the question of "we don't know" ? do these shadow bankers have to report their shadow banking activities? That wouldn't be very shadow like. But for our $100 RV subscription Snider is supposed to tell us all?

@Stephane P.: No. 1st, it was May 29, 2018 (not 2019), where Gold was around 1300 and actually decreased to a low at around 1000. 2nd, if you were referring to March 20, 2019 - well, Gold was around 1300 at the time as well, and remained around that level until early June, when the hike begun which lasted until early September. So, on the contrary, Gold was not reacting at all, and even if, not to a recognizable extent

Really? His main message is “Something’s going on, but we don’t know what it is. Repo was just a symptom of a much deeper issue, but we don’t know what the deeper issue is”. How is that insightful by any measure?

Asking the right questions or seeing the problem correctly is infinitely more valuable to me than all these answers you can get anywhere from anyone, which in the end are just a bunch of opinions. What Jeff says is measurable, falsifiable, because he starts at the beginning, and doesn't continue until he has that right. You want an opinion on what to buy or sell? Go on construction and do the opposite of what the workers tell you. Cheers.

Anything by Zoltan, although he can be quite heavy going: GMN 1 - https://research-doc.credit-suisse.com/docView?language=ENG&format=PDF&document_id=1048167391&source_id=emrna&serialid=ePoMbkNQvD3cFmVQrLOs4uunEOqBY8SRTC%2bV613VP5c%3d GMN 23 - REVENGE OF THE PLUMBING https://www.finanzaonline.com/forum/attachments/obbligazioni-titoli-di-stato/2622433d1566390308-btp-thread-dedicato-operativita-trading-e-cassetto-vol-108-verso-la-soluzione-finale-revenge-ofthe-plumbing.pdf There is a good breakdown of recent events here: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/single-post/2019/09/28/Eisenbeis-Repos-And-Reverse-Repos St Louis Fed have also done some good work: https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2019/march/why-fed-create-standing-repo-facility There's not really many books, plus the last few years would have thrown a lot of those conventional theories on their head anyway.

And the argument is probably 180 degrees to what I wrote ... I haven't looked at whether bonds or futures were cheap v expensive. But the dates suggest one or more bond desks bringing the 2 markets back in line at settlement.

If the rates were circa 8-10 pct then it was bonds that were expensive to borrow to cover short physical by a trading desk - not that there is a shortage of USD etc ... I think they have the wrong end of the stick. I always thought of the repo market as the marginal demand/supply of bonds from trading desks. it is not right to think of this as a surplus or shortage of USD cash ... this market is driven by the physical ... and ultimately it is arbitraged away at settlement dates of futures contracts.

if it was expensive to borrow $ and lend bonds ... too many bonds to lend ... so bonds are cheap v futures ... so desks are buying bonds and selling futures... and then they want to lend bonds and borrow cash explains what has happened. back to my glass of Barossa Shiraz.

in my first post I meant September not October 😋

maybe we can pick a 3 or 10 year futures contract a day before maturity and the yields of the bonds and we can price up if bonds or futures were cheap and needed to be brought in line. maybe RV has been too successful and subscribers are selling Eurodollar futures beyond their fair value... fits the narrative.

They also had an update with the three of them back on again last month. The US cannot finance its unprecedented profligate spending and the worst-ever government finances/deficits in human history. This is the core of the problem in the US treasury and repo. The Fed is "financing" the US gov't now as it was forced to, Weimar style. Bad for the dollar.

Too little reserves!

Just taking a stab in the dark here but it was 6 months after POTUS signed the 2017 TCJA into law that something again broke. Is it possible that the bean counters discovered that the $US tax would not reach on a level unlike ever before?

Banks will have taken a view that the economy is turning down and will now be demanding better collateral or be compensated for taking the additional risk on their balance sheet. The repo counterparty has probably been using non-govt collateral for funding up until now without much problem but find themselves stuck for funding options (obviously not having committed USD funding lines - which tells you something). Its the unintended consequences of post-GFC banking regulation. BIS bank capital, funding & liquidity regulations have made banks more robust but in so doing have made capital, funding & liquidity markets less stable by constraining the main player (the market maker) in those markets. Bank balance sheets used to be Grand Central - everything passed through there. Now it's like gaining access to a top secret military facility. Additionally, other regulators (CBs) are setting negative interest rates or engaging in QE (taking collateral out of the market) to encourage risk taking in markets. In the chase for (positive) yield (especially if you have to cover currency hedging costs), securities are being purchased that do not make for attractive repo collateral which banks will give a big haircut to for liquidity purposes then charge a punitive capital risk weighting on the face value for the pleasure of taking space on their balance sheet. The Fed can take whatever collateral they want but will probably apply BIS-like rules. As an example, Repo Counterparty needs $100m but only has security that is of marginal credit quality. The Bank says 'for me to hold that I'll give it a 50% haircut for LIQUIDITY requirements', which means they will actually to receive face value of $200m of the security. Then for CAPITAL requirements they may say 'I want to disincentivise you using my balance sheet for short-term funding so I will charge you a 300% risk-weighting on this asset' so that's $200m (yes, the face value) x 8% regulatory capital x 300% risk-weighting x 15% return on capital = $7.2m, which is 7.2% O/N funding cost on the original $100m funding requirement of Repo Counterparty. This is how the repo rate can get to 10% when Fed Funds is 2%. Additionally, banks were coming up to quarter end so they will charge even more to ensure their window dressing is just right for regulatory & reporting purposes.

Being serious here Jeff reminds so much of the tv character Radar O'Rielly in how they both have a better grasp of the innard workings of the system than the folks in charge. Wished he lived in my neighborhood!

I see gold hit it's low for 2018 on that date & begin's it's upward march/

Haha yeah I am screaming at the monitor here. Why is nobody asking the dealers what the problem is? How come we are just sitting here for weeks and we can't get a simple answer?

These articles might be a good start. Maybe they don't want to do it is because they've been burned thrice in 12 years while at the same time central banks have been saying everything is fine. https://www.alhambrapartners.com/2019/04/02/the-real-legacy-of-bear-global-means-global/ https://www.alhambrapartners.com/2019/06/19/powell-surrenders-i-told-you-last-year-it-was-a-lie-or-heres-almost-the-whole-of-it/

If Jeff is correct, it seems highly unlikely that a PD would admit to something so systemically negative. So, perhaps let Jeff interview a PD. That would be spectacular!

I don't believe you'll find trade ideas / discussions in 99% of Jeff's writing. So, perhaps the interviewer did ask but it's just not what Jeff writes or speaks to (in public at least, as far as I can tell).

Possibly, but he extensively covers ED/Libor issues on his Alhambra blog.

If I was to hazard a guess I would say that JPS would say the weakest points in the plumbing of the international banking system are the central banks. Many of them believe that they are the most-educated, most-qualified and best-connected technocrats to manage the system. To believe that they are not central would be to destroy the comforting illusion of control. Thus it is always extenuating circumstances, transitory factors or trade wars. That's plausible for a few years, but it has been over a decade. By refusing to look too closely - so as to protect themselves from what they would find - we are forced to continue on with a malfunctioning monetary order. At least, that's what I think.