The New Normal for Global Industry

Published on
May 26th, 2020
Duration
45 minutes


The New Normal for Global Industry

The Expert View ·
Featuring Paul Hodges

Published on: May 26th, 2020 • Duration: 45 minutes

The global chemical industry is the third largest sector in the world behind agriculture and energy, and its outputs find their way into everything we consume. Paul Hodges, chairman of the pH Report, analyzes the chemical industry to give a unique perspective on the global economy to investors and corporations. In this timely discussion, he uses this lens to analyze the industrial fallout from COVID-19. Hodges argues that the chemical industry has been signaling a global growth downturn for years and that COVID-19 has only accelerated this trend as well as other trends like de-globalization. He also touches on the oil market, knock-on effects for industries like autos and technology, and lays out his case for a world entering a new normal of muted growth but massive opportunity in the reorganization of society. Filmed on May 20, 2020.

Comments

Transcript

  • IP
    IDA P.
    17 June 2020 @ 09:50
    this is excellent, should be watched twice at least
  • MC
    Melson C.
    2 June 2020 @ 12:10
    Very good. Common sense always prevails
  • MM
    MAX M.
    1 June 2020 @ 03:37
    Vogon poetry.
  • TR
    Thomas R.
    31 May 2020 @ 08:24
    Wow. Just saw this... and will watch it again. Besides his overview based on a lifetime of observations and experience, I really also liked his basic piece of advice to the retail investors: trust your instincts and what you see in your everyday life - facts that will arrive with delay to Wall Street and only be communicated to you by them, when it is to their advantage. I will remind myself of that... and all of it is presented with great humor and optimism. A very enjoyable and valuable interview (only thing that makes me sad is that it reminds me as a Dane, why I feel terrible about the UK leaving EU)
  • AS
    A S.
    31 May 2020 @ 07:19
    the wisdom of the prophet
  • AP
    A P.
    30 May 2020 @ 15:19
    Really interesting perspective, great interview.
  • WS
    Will S.
    29 May 2020 @ 02:14
    What a great guy, awesome interview
  • TZ
    Tibor Z.
    29 May 2020 @ 00:06
    He is hilarious! 😅
  • BH
    Bernard H.
    28 May 2020 @ 04:35
    Top drawer as always
  • JO
    John O.
    28 May 2020 @ 00:08
    Really appreciate the construct of the 'interview'. Queing up his comments without the listener having to experience the queing up. Appreciate that some interviews are better when conversations. This format was very effective and efficient as was Paul in his remarks. Props to the production team.
    • AP
      ANTHONY P.
      28 May 2020 @ 00:36
      Well said!
  • AP
    ANTHONY P.
    28 May 2020 @ 00:29
    This guy would be a stand out intellect even if the world weren't filled with idiots. Two big thumbs way up!
  • WS
    William S.
    27 May 2020 @ 20:53
    "Will Hertz go bankrupt...? For example" Well that aged well in the span of a few days.
  • yc
    yu c.
    27 May 2020 @ 20:33
    I can watch Paul go on and on. Pls come back soon and more often!
  • PH
    Paul H. | Contributor
    27 May 2020 @ 15:54
    Thank you very much for your kind words! Paul PS There is more information on our website, if this would be helpful. https://www.new-normal.com/
  • MM
    Melissa M.
    27 May 2020 @ 13:14
    Before watching this interview, I completed a questionnaire from RV yesterday asking "What is one thing RV can do to increase its value to you?" I would like to amend my answer: More Paul Hodges! A masterful presentation of complex systems without the highbrow vernacular. Even a beginner like me can understand. Bravo, Mr. Hodges. One of the best storytellers I've ever had the pleasure of listening to.
  • JE
    J E.
    27 May 2020 @ 11:40
    I can say anecdotally from TX, we’ve essentially driven 1 car as needed and not very much. My truck battery died just as covid started, and it’s been collecting dust In the garage to this day since it’s been completely unnecessary to have fixed.
    • JE
      J E.
      27 May 2020 @ 11:41
      PS Howdy :)
  • SP
    Saxon P.
    27 May 2020 @ 10:55
    Fantastic insights. Greatly appreciated!
  • FD
    Frank D.
    27 May 2020 @ 09:37
    Great interview, thank you, Paul.
  • CD
    Chris D.
    27 May 2020 @ 09:25
    As always, PH is wonderful. Insightful, data drive, a great person to listen to and get captivated by his enthusiasm
  • JZ
    Jan Z.
    27 May 2020 @ 09:06
    Moc nečum dědku
  • MD
    Matt D.
    27 May 2020 @ 05:30
    Great interview - I must admit didn't expect it to be so good. Exceptional. Full of great practical advice - like his final sentence. Hard work too to just talk solo like that. Interesting can see a few similarities with his sentiments and Raoul's macro view. Thanks RV and Mr H.
    • PH
      Paul H. | Contributor
      27 May 2020 @ 08:37
      Many thanks. There's more background on our website at https://www.new-normal.com/
  • FS
    Florian S.
    27 May 2020 @ 08:08
    As someone working in the chemical industry myself, I think he has done a great job of laying out the situation. Chemicals are generally a great source to get a pulse of the overall real economy- and there is lots of data on it. I have had the conviction for a long time that in the future real economy "making more with less" matters very much. In particular in the context of more local supply chains. This is the 1st RV interview I have seen where I am hearing this as a key theme coming out of the crisis. Would be great to have a deep dive on this - e.g., how to invest in recycling / recovery technologies that will be key in creating more regional/local supply chains. Think of e.g. reusing plastic waste to generate new feedstock instead of consuming oil. These types of activities will be the path to fossil-free industries down the road. Companies that will lead this development will see massive growth opportunities. Thanks for this great interview!
    • PH
      Paul H. | Contributor
      27 May 2020 @ 08:35
      Many thanks. There's more on this topic and related areas on the website at https://www.new-normal.com/
  • SS
    Simeon S.
    26 May 2020 @ 11:04
    Shame that no time was spent on the opportunities in the chemical sector
    • PH
      Paul H. | Contributor
      27 May 2020 @ 08:34
      We do have a lot of views on this issue - both challenges and opportunities - which we cover in our pH Report and on the website. https://www.new-normal.com/
  • CC
    Cornelius C.
    27 May 2020 @ 07:37
    so invest in services like Ebay....
  • PM
    Pascal M.
    27 May 2020 @ 05:26
    Nice that i didnt have to watch an interviewer asking convoluted long questions but instead got a nice flow of real good thoughts and insights! Also like the charts! Lovely interview.
  • SM
    Stephen M.
    27 May 2020 @ 03:43
    Exceptional interview.
  • ck
    chuck k.
    27 May 2020 @ 02:27
    As always, Paul Hodges makes you feel like you've had a discussion with you favorite professor. Really nice chap.
  • FA
    Frank A.
    27 May 2020 @ 00:52
    As usual Paul does an excellent job. Always enjoy his interviews and learn something every time
  • DS
    David S.
    26 May 2020 @ 23:57
    Great interview. What a logical flow of thoughts and deductions
  • MA
    Michael A.
    26 May 2020 @ 22:49
    This is an incredibly solid interview. Very clear and to the point. Makes complex things relatively easy to understand...I'll definitely be exploring that Second-Hand market concept more a bit as well.
  • PB
    PHILLIP B.
    26 May 2020 @ 22:17
    mic drop
  • JS
    JEVGENI S.
    26 May 2020 @ 22:03
    Epic..
  • CR
    Chiel R.
    26 May 2020 @ 21:53
    Excellent perspective from the real (industrial) world...Thank you Paul & RV!
  • JC
    Julian C.
    26 May 2020 @ 20:55
    This was great-- really like the 'industrial expert' angle
    • JC
      Julian C.
      26 May 2020 @ 20:55
      Would be happy to see more like this
  • BS
    Bevyn S.
    26 May 2020 @ 20:46
    Feel like I just got done with a fireside chat with an elder or took a knee for coach's speech before a baseball game. Thanks for the wisdom Paul.
  • DS
    David S.
    26 May 2020 @ 20:25
    As an aside: I just watched Princes of the Yen: Central Bank Truth Documentary on YouTube about Professor Werner's time in Japan. It is excellent and certainly relevant to the central banks of today. I am looking forward to his timely appearances on RVTV. As a professor, he is well able to present cogent discussions on his own. I hope this will be the format. A big thanks to Mr. Hendry for making this all possible. DLS
  • DS
    David S.
    26 May 2020 @ 20:15
    Excellent analysis of the facts on the ground with some interpretations of possibilities. Thanks. DLS
  • CM
    Chris M.
    26 May 2020 @ 20:11
    Never seen Mr Hodges before, really enjoyed this interview. Seems like a really nice man, and really enjoyed his clear and simple way of explaining what he sees.
  • AM
    Alexander M.
    26 May 2020 @ 19:29
    So much straight forward wisdom in what Paul says. a huge thanks to him and to Real Vision. Common sense indeed.
  • SC
    Sejong C.
    26 May 2020 @ 19:20
    I like Mr. Hodges. Third EV on real vision. Everyone should watch the first one, where he introduces his approach to the chemical industry and the economy.
  • SD
    Scott D.
    26 May 2020 @ 17:54
    first time ive seen Paul, great interview. very clear!
  • NR
    Nathan R.
    26 May 2020 @ 12:07
    Grounded, reasoned, empirical, visibility, opportunity, humility. Theory into practice. Inductive reasoning is refreshing...
    • JD
      James D.
      26 May 2020 @ 17:22
      could not agree more...
  • RM
    Richard M.
    26 May 2020 @ 16:33
    Great interview - I always love hearing from Mr Hodges! The chemical industry is a fantastic leading indicator to watch for signs of future economic activity, and I think it's telling us the downturn will be steep and the "economic" bounce back will be slow and anemic (as opposed to the stock market telling us everything will just be fine and dandy).
  • SB
    Stewart B.
    26 May 2020 @ 15:54
    I love this type of approach - using secondary datasets such from the chemical industry to augment the mainstream views.
  • CD
    Christopher D.
    26 May 2020 @ 11:20
    Hearing what has been available to read for months, or is plain common sense...not sure where the expertise lies.
  • NP
    Nick P.
    26 May 2020 @ 11:07
    Brilliant, love the humor too.
  • RC
    Robert C.
    26 May 2020 @ 09:35
    Love Paul's commentary. He's been pretty accurate with his views over the past 3 years of interviews on RV.