Comments
Transcript
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PBI think the whole World ends up like Japan...All Government Central Banks will be forced to buy the whole Debt Market. There is no limit to how much Money you can create....There is a limit to how much you can borrow. I see Currency Wars between Country's...and the Yellow Jacket movement will be seen as a precursor to what is coming
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EMbitcoin fixes this
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MLBitcoin will clean the system :)
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JCCould you please provide more details regarding the book THE HISTORY OF DEBT, because I couldn’t find it.
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DSSurprised Christopher does not think gold standard is the proper anchor
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DPI enjoyed the interview, but "China is hanging in there?"....Umm. Might have to disagree with that one. Granted China will lie about their growth, but tough imagine Q1 GDP in China will be robust.
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RSOne persons debt is another persons asset... Any reduction in debt is also a reduction in money.
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KCWho would lend money if the amortization gets within a few years of his debt jubilee???? How would an economy deal with lenders no longer providing that credit - housing, corporate debt, small business loans completely disappearing. The economy would shrivel, massive unemployment, bankruptcies, for a feel good solution.
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FGI would like to take the services of Longview Economics and then declare a debt jubilee. Effectively, I would be sharing responsibility on the unpaid invoice with Mr. Watling.
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RIAs much as I hope he’s wrong, he makes a good case for further upside in The Market (ie US equities).
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LCExcellent, thank you!
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PVCentral bank liquidity has been driving prices? Really? Disappointing, shallow, nothingburger. No real insights or unique pov. Pls RV curate speaker selection better.
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RMVery well spoken, but had to give this one a thumbs down. Had a hard time correlating the debt super cycle problems to the market being up 20% based on bank liquidity. Granted, liquidity is driving this market as it is going up on PE expansion and not earnings growth. Might have been helpful to get more detail on Christopher's thoughts around this market prediction.
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JHEnjoyed this one - somewhat of a rehash of other points of view & other interviews, but nonetheless some important thoughts to reflect on here. Largely agree that we are not in capitalist system and haven’t been for many years, and debt is main albatross around our necks in terms of hampering productivity & prosperity. Do not agree debt jubilee is workable or even plausible, especially because the debt is not evenly distributed and some countries and private actors would suffer far more than others. There are some very powerful actors who would suffer asset price declines and see declines in their wealth. This will end one of two ways in my view: the relief valve of nature via climate change (or disease), or the relief valve of social disruption and possibly revolution & increasing civil unrest. Both may occur at once, as we seem to be seeing now.
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JHSorry but one thing he says has to be addressed: we know that the Philips curve is not accurate as a model. Mainstream economics as a profession has ironically greatly hampered our understanding of how economies actually work. Please question what you read. Thanks.
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JSGreat interview! Chris describes much of Richard Duncan’s view that capitalism has fallen by the wayside and the credit growth drives economic growth... Duncan continues with that with credit growth low the fed has to supplement with asset price inflation to keep the party going. Chris’s endgame is different then what I have heard so far, so thanks for adding a different viewpoint!
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JLwhere is that US acceleration going to come from? Seriously, what drives that? Stock chasing is not evidence of housing or consumer or GDP. Unless I misunderstood some things, this interview is heavy on hope and light on facts
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JBChris succinctly puts the case for the reflation trade juxtaposed with the debt-super cycle. Whilst I'm a perma-bear and would love to see the indexes collapse, I have a nagging suspicion that there is new meaning to "don't fight the fed"
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DSGood call on the American consumers. The coronavirus is certainly going to cause a lowering of Chinese consumer spending in China and abroad. Thanks. DLS
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BTYet another speaker who feels that inflation is coming (seems logical with repo QE)-- so, equities, gld, and leveraged real estate should all continue to do well in the long run- right? But then there's that dollar shortage whispering in the background to keep the dollar strong and inflation in check in Raol world view?? I suspect that a debt jubilee is a dream for indebted 'masses' that would relate to houses and credit card debts? Interesting perspectives overall- the concept of a pegged currency, perhaps global in nature, that would completely disrupt the current 'borrow and print into oblivion capitalism' that has created great, though fake, wealth (and inequality) in our country-and world.
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DSMr. Watling is certainly correct that capitalism needs a reasonable investment hurdle rate to allocate capital. We created this rabbit hole when we went off the gold standard. (The gold standard was not perfect, but did provided some restraint.) Wall Street ended the game in 2008. No one wanted consequences, so CBs printed tons of money vastly increased the difference in wealth distribution. This generates populism on the far left and far right. We did this to ourselves. From a society point of view, we are now in a wealth oligarchy/republic in the US. The wealthy use polarized media to elect the politicians who will vote their way. A republic divided by populism on the left and right cannot stand. Like any bankruptcy this will star off slowly, then all at once. Sorry, I would like to be more optimistic, but I am not smart enough to see a way out of this rabbit hole. DLS
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MHSo what happens to lending when you know a Jubilee is on its way? When done unexpectedly surely it rewards reckless borrowers? Is that what we really want to do?
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JQFed is the market. Got it
Chapters
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What are the drivers of the debt supercycle?
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Can the debt supercycle be fixed?
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How do we apply solutions in a multipolar world?
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Have central banks distorted capitalism?
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What's your outlook for asset prices?
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Do central banks drive cycles?
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Where are we now in the current cycle?
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What's your short-term outlook for US equities?
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What's your view on fixed income & inflation?
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What's your outlook for the rest of the world?
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What's your base case — and what are the risks?