The Unfolding

Published on
April 8th, 2020
Duration
43 minutes


The Unfolding

The Expert View ·
Featuring Raoul Pal

Published on: April 8th, 2020 • Duration: 43 minutes

Raoul Pal returns in his role as founder of Global Macro Investor to update Real Vision members on his ever-evolving macro framework. He lays out his case that COVID-19 may be the catalyst for a multiphase unfolding of the entire global economic system and argues that we are still in the first phase of panic and liquidity. The second and third phases of correction and insolvency are possibly still to come and would take years to complete. Although Raoul describes a truly catastrophic potential scenario, he closes on the hopeful note that this unfolding would be a much-needed reset, and that there is plenty of room to hide in asset classes like U.S. treasuries, dollars, gold, and bitcoin.

Comments

Transcript

  • eK
    erik K.
    28 April 2020 @ 22:17
    Great video. One question: the unfolding assumes no government reaction on the possible emerge of bitcoin. Will governments accept the rise of bitcoin and other crypto of simply just declare it as illegal (forbid the exchange of fiat for crypto and vice versa) like Russia as it posses a serious stress to monetary policy, imposing capital controls etc.? I just don't see governments accept the emerge of a parralel monetary system?
  • WM
    Will M.
    9 April 2020 @ 22:53
    Very good and serious explanation, not yet 100% convinced on the Bitcoin Raoul, but everything else makes sense to me. My main question is "what about the gold miners"....
    • bb
      ben b.
      14 April 2020 @ 21:27
      Will, I recommend 'The Bitcoin Standard' as the best reading material to add to your knowledge/conviction. Looks at the history of money and the macro view, puts forward a good argument.
    • MN
      MATEUSZ N.
      25 April 2020 @ 12:13
      Where can I find it? On RV?
  • BA
    Bradley A.
    11 April 2020 @ 13:34
    Thanks Raoul and RealVision, really appreciate this kind of research/knowledge being made so easily available to retail investors. A couple of thoughts/comments: - Black Swan Events - It has been frequently referenced as one, but a pandemic isn't a black swan event, just like the mortgage crisis in 08/09 wasn't a black swan event. There is a long history of these events; they aren't events/scenarios that sit completely outside our knowledge base. They are just low frequency (arguable) high consequence events that one might argue are exacerbated by a centralised monetary system built on debt rather than equity. - Short JPN Yen (aka the widow maker) - Japan has been trying to devalue the Yen for a long time now with limited success. Like trying to fight gravity it would seem. They may succeed but if they also forgive the debt that the gov. owes they'll reduce the stock of JPY which will lead to a drastic appreciation of the currency. Suspect it would be a very volatile play and very difficult to time. If markets get a whiff of such a plan then it seems like one could make a case for being long or short the JPY/USD (depending on chosen duration and depth of pockets) which potentially leaves one about where they started.
    • MR
      Michael R.
      21 April 2020 @ 12:25
      I came away with COVID as a Black Swan event in the context of the 4th Turning. That is, a catalyst event that leads to an eventual collapse and remaking of the system, society and culture. We already see the elements of a generational turning in today's culture, economically - rich vs. poor, culturally - neoliberalism, nationalism vs. globalism, immigration debate in Europe and the Americas, etc.
  • SO
    Sercan O.
    11 April 2020 @ 14:11
    Raoul, great investment pitch but it's only for your main thesis which you think has 60% chance of playing out. But I would also love to hear what you need to see to change your opinion, which seems still a pretty high 40% probability in your opinion. Can you please share a few things on the alternative scenario(s) so that we can understand the risks and when we have to change course?
    • MR
      Michael R.
      21 April 2020 @ 12:18
      Regarding Raoul's scenario, the only alternative outcome I see is not having a Debt Jubilee - ie. Governments and CB's do not write down corporate and sovereign debts. That would probably result in a much faster but much more disorderly economic collapse.
  • DK
    Dennis K.
    13 April 2020 @ 17:17
    Hi Raoul, what about Jim Rogers point: there will be a crypto future. But it will be a goverment cryptogutire and they have the guns. So as soon if they outlaw BTC , as they don’t like competition, BTC will go south. Hope to see Jim on RealVision and have these different opinions discussed
    • CP
      Curt P.
      16 April 2020 @ 20:06
      i agree with Jim Rogers. The guys with the guns makes the currency, and they will make a digital currency and they will be able to control any transfers from their currency into any other cryptos.
    • MR
      Michael R.
      21 April 2020 @ 12:08
      To outlaw BTC is more difficult than it seems. You can shutdown exchanges but decentralization will replace P2P exchanges to work around that. Plus, even with CBDC's, a global, trusted, peg is needed. BTC, being the only truly decentralized crypto is the logical choice. In sum, it is very difficult to prevent people from accessing BTC and once the critical mass of a population is reached, government bans won't matter.
  • SS
    Scott S.
    17 April 2020 @ 05:00
    FDIC insurance is 250k per account per holder. See https://www.fdic.gov/deposit/covered/categories.html
  • Ms
    Martyn s.
    10 April 2020 @ 07:15
    I dont know how to play bonds as i dont understand what bonds i need would need to buy. I have pms and bitcoin though. Any suggestions tlt still good?
    • FH
      Franklin H.
      10 April 2020 @ 14:02
      TLT is what I use, and is probably the most convenient way to buy long-term US bonds.
    • SB
      Stephen B.
      10 April 2020 @ 15:03
      I use TLT as well.
    • MC
      Matt C.
      10 April 2020 @ 16:05
      ZM is a good bond
    • GS
      Gerald S.
      11 April 2020 @ 13:54
      TLT, UUP, GLD
    • KP
      Kyle P.
      11 April 2020 @ 17:29
      Thank you for asking the question I have been too afraid to. Do i understand correctly that TLT holds long term bonds, so if the interest rate falls, those holdings are more attractive, therefore the TLT will increase in value? What then is the impact of currency devaluation? how does that factor in? And perhaps more importantly, what roadsigns should i be looking for to enter and exit such a positon?
    • SS
      Scott S.
      17 April 2020 @ 04:59
      For this, I like SCHR or competitors because they hold 3 to 10 year treasuries. TLT is 20+ years. Not good if the long end of the curve steepens. Yes, the ETFs will move very closely to holding a group of treasuries dated the same. If you want to hit an exact maturity with no turnover, there is nothing wrong with buying individual treasuries (watch the bid/ask spread). Worst case, you can hold them to maturity and they pay out $1k. The YTM yield to maturity quoted at time of purchase is the effective rate you’ll lock in if you don’t sell and hold them to maturity.
  • BJ
    Brandon J.
    9 April 2020 @ 08:45
    What happens to real estate? Also, as others have asked, are we not in the optimism phase right now? Seems like a lot of furious bears out there.
    • CP
      Curt P.
      17 April 2020 @ 01:35
      All Real Estate is a function of cash flows with a discount factor applied. The discount factor is composed of a risk free rate and a risk premium. Reduced economic activity, means less cash flows broadly speaking. Some regions which have COVID superspreader infrastructure, will be impossible to get even back to 50% economic activity.
  • RM
    Russell M.
    9 April 2020 @ 14:06
    Government is trying to avoid the BBB doom loop. $2.3 trillion Fed facility to by newly downgraded junk bonds. Can they be successful?
    • CP
      Curt P.
      17 April 2020 @ 01:30
      Not exactly. Fed is buying fallen angels which are strategic companies, like Ford. This is a gvmt that is picking winners, protecting national champions. It is not supporting everyone. And it is not even supporting the cashflows of the national champions, it's just making sure that they don't get broken up or taken over by vultures.
  • JO
    Jeffrey O.
    10 April 2020 @ 04:54
    Hi Raoul, I think you're right about the huge brain trust developing new technologies to further digital currency usage. But I think the new technologies will be used in conjunction with FEDCoin (aka US government crypto-currency), not Bitcoin. I think we are already headed in that direction with the acceleration of the expansion of the 5G network within the US. The US federal government will likely make all transactions utilizing non-governmental crypto-currencies illegal within the US. That spells the end for BTC, XRP, etc. I'd rather own gold/silver then BTC, but in the end I think all US citizens will be forced to use US FEDCoins. Welcome to the Brave New World.
    • CP
      Curt P.
      16 April 2020 @ 21:45
      Raul's point isn't about crypto inside a country, but rather for international commerce. There has to be something that can function as the USD has since 1945. Gold is just too physical. Paper gold cannot be trusted by all player. A crypto would be the solution.
  • MA
    Mark A.
    12 April 2020 @ 16:36
    Does anybody know more about the point Raoul makes re dollars not being fungible? Would love to understand that better
    • bb
      ben b.
      14 April 2020 @ 21:07
      Yep went over my head that too. Why is a dollar in New York not equal to a dollar in London?
    • CP
      Curt P.
      16 April 2020 @ 20:16
      Eurodollars are dollars which are outside the US banking system. Petrostates accumulate dollars, they put on deposit in London, those banks lend it out at 10:1. It's that fractional banking in London of USDs which is the problem- those banks are not inside the Federal Reserve System, so the Fed will not backstop them, will not provide them liquidity.
  • CT
    Crispim T.
    9 April 2020 @ 21:09
    Bitcoin (BTC) will fix all this. It won't be fast or smooth, but it's inevitable.
    • DB
      Doug B.
      10 April 2020 @ 02:42
      The problem is a shortage of reserve currency, dollars, which can be conjured out of thin air. How could XBT, which has fixed supply, solve that problem?
    • PW
      PETER W.
      10 April 2020 @ 17:17
      Exactly Doug. If you fix supply then you allow price to fluctuate - this is a fundamental feature of bitcoin and one of which investors need to be aware. You will (by definition) have greater price volatility in bitcoin so it will be difficult to actually use it as a store of value or as a unit of account. It is simply a collectable. Like baseball cards were back in the day until everyone started making them and the price tanked...
    • bb
      ben b.
      14 April 2020 @ 21:30
      @Peter, is gold just a baseball card too...?
    • PW
      PETER W.
      16 April 2020 @ 05:04
      @ben - gold has uses (and therefore value) outside of its monetary story (electronics, jewellery, etc.). I guess you can use the ASIC miner as a paperweight or doorstop, but those seem like collectable uses to me. I have owned/traded/mined bitcoin for a few years now but I'm over the honeymoon and trying to see past the "story" and right now am (a) unconvinced by the libertarian argument and (b) unsure how bitcoin reconciles with MMT (the actual economic theory rather than what is popularly considered as MMT which is turning on the printing press). Would love to hear your views around (b).
  • TM
    Tony M.
    14 April 2020 @ 23:08
    You make it clear that you are US$ bullish, including against AUD. Today on Twitter, Julian B states MI2 last week advised clients to go long AUD - which one is it?
  • JA
    Johnny A.
    12 April 2020 @ 20:16
    Does anyone know when this video was made? I see the release date as April 8th but this feels like it was made before three week rally?
    • SO
      Shaun O.
      13 April 2020 @ 04:31
      6:39 has the S&P 500 shows some rally and pull back
    • GG
      Garrett G.
      14 April 2020 @ 05:09
      I was thinking the same thing. Are we not already at the top of the bounce up? We already hit the .5 fib retracement level and it appears as though it's all downhill from here.
    • WG
      Warren G.
      14 April 2020 @ 11:54
      Same thoughts.
  • WG
    Warren G.
    14 April 2020 @ 11:53
    Hey Raoul,why do you speak of the bounce as if it did not happen or is not in the process of happening? Also,what do you think of the dollar relative to the South Korea Won,an economy that dealt with the crisis quite well.?
  • jn
    jordan n.
    8 April 2020 @ 15:36
    Fantastic Raoul, thank you. Is there a video covering the best approaches to buying bitcoin? Or a comparison of the various types? If there is not, viewers new to crypto would really appreciate it.
    • SS
      Steve S.
      8 April 2020 @ 15:40
      Buy through an exchange like Coinbase, Kraken. Buy a Ledger https://www.ledger.com/ and then transfer your crypto to the ledger. There's detailed videos on Youtube explaining it.
    • DT
      David T.
      8 April 2020 @ 16:09
      Be careful its very volatile. you can buy any way you want. Problem is holding it not buying. It can vanish.
    • JR
      John R.
      8 April 2020 @ 20:17
      I have used Coinbase since 2017 and then I transfer it to a ledger nano X. Crypto Dad on youtube has very good explanations for many aspects of crypto including how to set up a ledger nano with Ledger Live, how to transfer from Coinbase to a ledger etc.
    • PG
      Petter G.
      9 April 2020 @ 19:12
      @Jordan: There is only one Bitcoin and that's the one with the ticker BTC. Do *not* buy any of the others.
    • GG
      Garrett G.
      14 April 2020 @ 05:49
      The quickest easiest way to buy bitcoin is through the Cash App offered by Square.
    • GG
      Garrett G.
      14 April 2020 @ 05:55
      Forgot to re-emphasize Petter G's point that there is only one Bitcoin, and that is BTC. Bitcoin Cash: BCH Bitcoin SV: BSV Bitcoin Gold: BTG and every other Bitcoin knockoff are all just that...knockoffs. BTC is the only one that is truly scarce and decentralized.
  • FR
    Frank R.
    11 April 2020 @ 05:09
    Raoul, you pay -.5% in bonds and of course, the markets are down big, so why don't you use The Celsius Network and get up to 9.9% return on your stable coins that are pegged to the dollar?
    • JP
      Jason P.
      13 April 2020 @ 21:00
      Theres a risk to those DeFi returns, also there is not enough stablecoin liquidity to support such high returns over time.
  • MR
    Milton R. | Founder
    8 April 2020 @ 18:17
    Hello lovely people All you questions will be answered by Raoul during the marathon Ask me Anything for Pro member on Friday at 12pm EST (5pm GMT). M
    • JM
      James M.
      9 April 2020 @ 16:20
      So no answers to any of these questions unless you pay more money!
    • MR
      Milton R. | Founder
      10 April 2020 @ 13:30
      James, joke aside if my rough calculations are right over the last year answered over 200 questions and that's just video comments. He'd probably be in the top commenters list along with DLS and others.
    • JM
      James M.
      13 April 2020 @ 06:32
      Yeah fair enough mate, I hear ya. I like the guy and think he is valuable and has taught me a lot as I have been listening to him over 7 years now. I get it your running a biz and he has limited time but maybe one of the team could answer some questions here. Maybe I,m just in the huff cos I was on the MI before it was changed to Pro and decided to leave as felt it was pricey for the average punter, I know relatively it wasn't compared to similar products but thought if MI had pursed the volume game with minimal margins could have really made a real difference to the average punter here at RV subs. I asked MI to do this but I guess they declined .... Cheers.
    • MR
      Milton R. | Founder
      13 April 2020 @ 07:52
      James, we'll very soon close the 3 months for $875 for Pro but it's still available as I write this message. MI has changed over the last years. For example, Harry Melandri writes a lot of answers to questions coming on reports and he's brilliant at it. There will always be questions that are too hard to answer because no one has a definitive answer but with the ones we can help we try and get to them.
  • SO
    Shaun O.
    13 April 2020 @ 04:28
    Where can I find the GMI Global Volatility Index? I looked on trading view but couldn't find it
  • mc
    michael c.
    12 April 2020 @ 21:10
    The elite class that controls the money will get one more bubble. They need that bubble to move over to a new asset class. I expect the greatest market rally to occur over the next 2 years ( maybe less) . Then when you least expect it run for the hills or should I say the mines
  • TD
    T D.
    12 April 2020 @ 06:16
    I know this video said we are in the first phase (liquidity), however, given that we have recovered about half of the drop at this point, are we then in the correction phase? I know this video was released on April the 8th when a lot of that recovery had already been made, but I am not sure if this video was perhaps produced before the move up (this upward move did happen quite quickly). I would assume that we are in the second phase now, but just wanted to confirm my understanding. Thanks to anyone who could share their point of view.
    • PW
      PETER W.
      12 April 2020 @ 14:37
      My $0.02: we have not yet seen the numbers for Q2 for a lot of the business that have been (and will continue to be) affected by COVID-19 lockdowns. Once these numbers work themselves through the system (including repercussive defaults) and everyone feels like they no longer want to hold/own/buy ANY equities, we will be at the bottom of the bear market. Long way to go in my opinion. To borrow on Raoul's description, this recent rally may simply be one of the "zigs" in the lightning bolt pattern unfolding.
    • JA
      Johnny A.
      12 April 2020 @ 20:15
      I too have this question. This feels like it was made before April 8th.
  • bk
    brian k.
    12 April 2020 @ 01:07
    Top class
  • CK
    Cristina K.
    11 April 2020 @ 23:46
    This is one of the best ones. I used to put music on when cleaning my house. Today, I play RealVision, and I love it. Thanks!!
  • CH
    Chris H.
    10 April 2020 @ 04:51
    Bitcoin can only do 4.6 transactions per second, that's hardly enough for a medium sized town. Also governments will never allow a situation where all the tools they have used to "help" (manipulate) the economy go away. The future may be digital but it's not bitcoin.
    • FH
      Franklin H.
      10 April 2020 @ 14:07
      Chris, the value in bitcoin isn't its use as a transactional currency, just as the value of gold isn't in its use as a transactional currency. While it has many money-like characteristics, Bitcoin's fundamental values are its sovereignty (it's global, and can't be stopped) and its provable scarcity (there will never be more than 21 millions BTC.)
    • PW
      PETER W.
      10 April 2020 @ 17:03
      @ Franklin, the scarcity of bitcoin is irrelevant if you adopt MMT as an explanatory theory for state economics. My question is whether there is a way to reconcile the two and to date have not found a compelling explanation where the two can co-exist.
    • RG
      Ryan G.
      11 April 2020 @ 05:19
      NANO is a promising transactional currency and Kyber Network is developing a kind of FX market with guaranteed liquidity from independent market makers. A couple of great projects.
    • GS
      Gerald S.
      11 April 2020 @ 13:59
      Will BTC futures create the more supply (i.e. paper BTC) the same way the gold market has been diluted by COMEX?
  • CY
    Chris Y.
    11 April 2020 @ 07:38
    He's good.
  • RL
    Robert L.
    11 April 2020 @ 04:59
    Amazing content Raoul ! I'd love to see a technical analysis piece from Dave Floyd or the like on this to gauge whether or not we're already in the relief/optimism stage or if there is one more leg to come before that which is what it looks like to me.
  • WW
    Wade W.
    10 April 2020 @ 02:41
    Raoul, right or wrong thank you for putting it on the line... not many people have those balls. One question, Russia stopping buying gold ... any thoughts?
    • DK
      D K.
      10 April 2020 @ 06:26
      Oil ⬇️ blows a hole in the budget. Oil ⬆️ and thy should resume.
    • PW
      PETER W.
      10 April 2020 @ 17:07
      Russia has not stopped buying gold, it has simply allowed its domestic producers to sell gold on international markets. My humble theory is that Russia does not have enough USD reserves to keep everyone (internally) afloat as velocity of money/cashflow is very low. If they sell USTs and use USD to offer loans their reserves fall drastically and this leads to very large speculative shorts. So they are allowing their domestic gold producers to sell internationally for dollars as a pressure release. Otherwise the Ruble will tank.
  • RM
    Rosa M.
    10 April 2020 @ 15:44
    What about Sprott,com do you know about any other Bullion dealer in US and Canada Also Sprott funds .. what about Bull.ca? Your knowledge sharing will be great
  • MC
    Matt C.
    10 April 2020 @ 14:24
    Shine on you crazy diamond
  • MR
    Matthew R.
    10 April 2020 @ 02:48
    A lot of people like the idea of BTC (and I do too), but I don't think people are seriously looking at the technology. There is no scalability, It's very inefficient too. If you were building something from the ground up it wouldn't look like BTC. And for me that is reason enough to not go near BTC until perhaps one of the alt coins becomes more viable.
    • MR
      Matthew R.
      10 April 2020 @ 02:49
      BTC is also completely traceable. So in some ways fiat currency is still better for privacy.
    • DB
      David B.
      10 April 2020 @ 14:12
      The value in BTC is not as a currency, but as a store of value like gold. Which should spike when the dollar ultimately collapses. Afterward, you exchange your BTC wealth for the new Fed digital dollar/currency.
  • JJ
    Jesse J.
    10 April 2020 @ 10:27
    This has got to be the best macro video I've ever seen, you broke it down so well it was easy to understand and there is so much information in here for me to research. I have two pages of notes to go through and I can't wait! Also, the best pound I've spent in my life (nuggets news), for someone with a small trading account like myself I'm in awe with Realvisons content and I hope to come out of this with a much stronger account and better understanding. I will definitely be back for the full package WHEN I make it. Thank you
  • CP
    Christopher P.
    9 April 2020 @ 21:17
    Can someone explain the theory/how it works out that even though each country debases its currency it is actually hyper deflationary?
    • JJ
      Jacob J.
      9 April 2020 @ 23:09
      Aging demographics and new technology are extremely deflationary forces. Also the velocity of money needs to pick up to get the actual inflation. That's the behavioral part. The supply of money is mostly meaningless without the ability or willingness to spend. It's hard to spend when you've lost your job and have debt. And since new money enters the system by creating new debt it's like the cure is also adding to the problem.
    • NC
      Nick C.
      10 April 2020 @ 07:31
      Not too sure about the full explanation but Jeff Booth did a real good interview re: deflation by way of technology on RV.
  • CM
    C M.
    10 April 2020 @ 03:41
    Love the graphs not zero-based at their arbitrary starting point; COVID-19 confirmed cases do not equal ICU utilization and deaths. The impact on the economy is real, but the historical comparisons to the 1920s and COVID-19 graphs are hogwash. (Watch all the thumbs down from the uber Bears...). Default and markets moving lower in nominal or real terms given the massive money printing?
  • MC
    Michael C.
    9 April 2020 @ 00:24
    Raoul, Do you think the PBoC is using FIMA to maintain the peg in the short term? France is using swap lines to help Air France. Many foreign CB's will bypass banks to give USD credit lines to large corporates...delaying the default cycle. Political backlash to the Fed using US tax payers to bailout China and other foreign borrowers that are competiting against US national interests?
    • nk
      nevena k.
      9 April 2020 @ 01:55
      These are not US tax payers money. It is created from thin air.
    • MC
      Michael C.
      9 April 2020 @ 02:14
      Yes Nevena I know the Fed is printing USD from thin air ... the point is that the Fed is bailing out foreign entities through its swap/repo lines and transfering these risks onto its own balance sheet and therefore onto the US people (ie the US tax payer). It is not risk free! Under a debt default there is the real risk that these swaps/reverse repos fail to settle when it comes time to unwind.
    • SB
      Sukhmeet B.
      9 April 2020 @ 02:46
      Read the debt cycle by Dalio- if a country (private company) has USD denominated debt their only solution is to devalue the local currency Argentina - jsut like that private corps won’t have the USD and their got can’t print ISD and they can’t find them dollar and US will have to print and give them USD but that is not allowed. So USD goes up
    • DB
      Doug B.
      10 April 2020 @ 03:06
      Michael, say the Fed prints some money, swaps it with a foreign CB. Then said CB defaults on the repayment, so the Fed deletes that from their balance sheet. How has that harmed the US taxpayer?
  • LT
    Louis T.
    9 April 2020 @ 09:57
    Can someone explain me why the FED would let the USD increase so much? Wouldn't they just inject more? Can't they tighten the gap between demand and supply?
    • SB
      Stephen B.
      9 April 2020 @ 17:18
      I think the argument goes that you cannot fill the hole more quickly than it is draining
    • MR
      Matthew R.
      9 April 2020 @ 20:47
      The can inject more, but it just gets hoarded and doesn't go into circulation. Inflation only shows in prices when the velocity of money increases.
    • DB
      Doug B.
      10 April 2020 @ 03:00
      To save the system, surely the Fed will go for infinite swap lines with whomever wants it? Who cares about getting paid back when they just freely print the stuff anyway?
  • BE
    Bilal E.
    9 April 2020 @ 15:31
    Would it be wise to transfer my aud cash to usd cash and just sit for 2 years?
    • SB
      Stephen B.
      9 April 2020 @ 17:16
      I transferred all my GBP cash to a mix of gold and US$'s and the argument for doing so is even stronger for the AUD.
    • CO
      Conal O.
      9 April 2020 @ 22:28
      What about €€?
    • DB
      Doug B.
      10 April 2020 @ 02:57
      If you'd done that 2 weeks ago you'd be down 15% already. Long USD is fighting the Fed, and a big global infrastructure spend will support the Aussie. I have very high cash allocations right now, and this aspect of just trying to tread water in my global portfolio drives me nuts. It's just so hard.
  • MG
    Mac G.
    9 April 2020 @ 19:25
    I don’t understand. If the dollar is going to remain strong and shoot up strongly toward the end of the system malfunction years from now at end of the insolvency phase, then why buy gold or bitcoin until then? Couldn’t gold and bitcoin get sucked down in the commodity abyss before they see any significant rise in dollar terms?
    • MR
      Matthew R.
      9 April 2020 @ 20:40
      Why not just hold the dollar, and some gold. BTC is a joke imo if you have a look into the actual technology behind it. Not that I'm against crypto currencies in general. I don't understand why it wouldn't be better to just hold a lot of dollars seeing as it's going to be rocketing with all the international demand.
    • JJ
      Jacob J.
      9 April 2020 @ 23:23
      You make a great point. Having lots of dollars ready to deploy at better prices is a good idea, but it would still be hard for me to watch all the new trillions of dollars being created without owning any gold. And while the deflation arguement makes more sense than the very inflationary scenario right now, things can always change. Raoul is smart as hell but even he said he could be wrong. Uncertain times call for an insurance policy anyway. That's the idea of diversification.
    • DB
      Doug B.
      10 April 2020 @ 02:47
      USD may climb when compared to other fiats, but are you confident it will climb compared to hard assets? A whole lot of printing going on right now, and the velocity argument notwithstanding, it is not hard to imagine gold going higher along with USD.
  • DS
    David S.
    8 April 2020 @ 15:28
    I am still sticking with $US cash. I feel the major selloff in the market is still ahead. Investors will sell what is liquid. As the world's smallest family office in a high-risk market, I will hope for better gold and stock prices. DLS
    • Hv
      Hannah v.
      9 April 2020 @ 06:26
      I’m getting the sense that stocks and the stock market are nearing the end of its life expectancy.. the old structure is rotten and crumbling. The last couple of years of corporate buybacks has been a sham. Stripped down, stocks seems to embody: male, white, privileged, rigged to the younger gens. I can’t see them embracing and supporting it as they’re more egalitarian and SJWish. To say you’re a capitalist in the lunchroom is a quick way to offend the majority of my colleagues; at least that’s my experience. I blame it on the dissolution of hierarchy and overarching equality of outcome at all costs. Question? Do you think the old Wall and the markets will dust themselves off and rise again? I wonder how Blockchain and Hashgraph will change the financial investment landscape? And what of fiat money? I wonder what form it’ll take and how that’ll change?
    • DS
      David S.
      9 April 2020 @ 19:32
      Hannah v. - Good comments. The problem for me is that people react to a word and not an idea. When I was young many were leftward leaning; now most of them are conservatives. I think this is a natural progression. We, however, did not have this total tribalism that exist in America today. Now the whole room will split on a one-word issue. The knee-jerk reaction can be known as a lie, but one must support the tribe. This is not good for any republic. As for the markets, I believe there will be a much better mix running Wall Street in the future. The problem is Wall Street functions on greed and fear. Even with better community representation, I do not think the fundamental personalities will change. However, I have seen some major community commitments on individual basis. There is always hope. DLS
    • WM
      Will M.
      9 April 2020 @ 22:31
      Good comments. Hannah what we have today is NOT true capitalism, it is a crony capitalism augmented by excessive financialism where too many make money playing with money or credit. My fear is that the younger now going to switch the clock back to socialism, which almost destroyed my old country of the UK in the 50s-60s and 70s. I believe it true capitalism and the invisible hand of Adam Smith which has "largely" given the world advancement marred only by the excessive turn to non-productive debt and credit in recent decades.
    • Hv
      Hannah v.
      10 April 2020 @ 01:10
      David and Will, Good points! I work in cancer care in “socialist” Canada and to my way of thinking, it’s unsustainable. We are booked beyond full-capacity as the demographic curve marches forever forward within our “free, top-notch health-care for everyone” economy. To help mitigate waitlists, patients are scheduled in 7.5 to 10 minute timeslots. It’s a brutal schedule without active Covid (at this point). At some point the choice comes down to equality of opportunity or equality of outcome. I wish Socialist could see truth of that difference. It’s funny you’ve signed off with “hope,” David. Hope lies at the actual germination kernel of a good life; at least that’s what I witness on a daily basis. As long as there is hope, life is worth the price of admission.
  • BL
    Benoit L.
    9 April 2020 @ 03:09
    Thank you @Raoul for this very insightful video. My question relates to the likely shortage of $US and whether we should pay attention for investing to where in the world $US will be relatively more readily available via swap lines (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200319b.htm)?
    • JJ
      Jacob J.
      9 April 2020 @ 23:48
      He says in the video that the dollars likely won't be stimulating to the economy so be very cautious about that. Why not just invest in the bull markets in the dollar, treasuries and gold?
  • DY
    Donald Y.
    9 April 2020 @ 23:38
    Very informative Raoul. I wonder what floating mortgage rates would be like in a negative rate environment. Surely the elite are not going to pay the common person to have a mortgate. That would go against all of what the elite stand for.
  • EK
    Edward K.
    9 April 2020 @ 14:16
    Fed buying junk bonds. How does this affect your thesis?
    • SJ
      Sean J.
      9 April 2020 @ 15:00
      Huge implication for this thesis, IMHO.
    • DB
      David B.
      9 April 2020 @ 17:48
      Going to guess that Raoul is on the phone today with other high-level thinkers to determine if the increasingly shocking actions of the Fed+Treasury will affect his thesis. I'm sure we'll be getting an update from Raoul on this and it will calm some nerves. My guess is even if Trump forces the F&T to push the S&P to 4000 before the election, the thesis remains valid but the timing may change. Raoul...?
    • MR
      Matthew R.
      9 April 2020 @ 20:46
      Isn't it obvious to everyone that the Fed is going to go into full Japan mode and buy up everything before we reach the final conclusion? Or is that just me?
    • JJ
      Jacob J.
      9 April 2020 @ 23:31
      Japan couldn't prevent economic gravity so why can we? Their stock market hasn't made a new high in decades. Hold gold for protection against extreme inflation and extreme deflation.
  • RA
    Ron A.
    9 April 2020 @ 23:27
    Raoul, to my mind, this is the most compelling video you've ever done. It's simply a work of art. I implore you to consider releasing this video to the general public on You Tube. There are so many people who are not Real Vision subscribers (yet!) to whom I want to send a link to this video along with a shout out to them to get subscribed ASAP. P.S.: The Daily Briefing is brilliant. I wait for it every evening with the same anticipation I used to have sixty years ago while waiting for The Amazing Adventures of Superman to air! Ed Harrison, Roger Hirst and Ash Bennington are simply smashing.
  • ar
    andrew r.
    8 April 2020 @ 20:11
    Raoul, thanks for this. Are you long $GLD? You were advising against it in March because too many people owned it. If we have another leg down market shock in front of us, will GLD get hammered too (before, obviously, the other phases where it goes up 3-5x)?
    • AR
      Alexander R.
      8 April 2020 @ 21:10
      Andrew, from multiple interviews, He is long gold but on different time frame, not next few months, but rather years, once deflationary bust plays out good will go up 3-5 times, stated even today I beilive his view is physical gold, Gld is specialation on price of gold and not real gold
    • SB
      Stephen B.
      8 April 2020 @ 21:17
      I own physical gold for my long term position and GLD + GDX for my tactical positioning.
    • MK
      Michael K.
      8 April 2020 @ 22:23
      Try subscribing to Bill fleckenstein he’s been managing gold positions literally for decades and his newsletter is dirt cheap. He actively talks about specific miners and their balance sheets, and you can try to avoid the ridiculous rebalancing volatility of GDX and GDXJ. I flipped my ETF’s to a basket of single names. Took 6-12 months of research. Can’t tell if it’s the right decision but that’s my deal
    • WM
      Will M.
      9 April 2020 @ 22:44
      Michael K. I think I am were you were. Currently almost all in GDX and GDXJ as "rough tools", now looking to rebalance into specific miners per Fred Hickey and some other analysts..... I do not use GLD, I think its probably ok if you can hold the physical, but I dont believe its truly the same as having the physical......
  • JB
    John B.
    8 April 2020 @ 19:49
    Pandemics are not Black Swans, see NNT.
    • DR
      Derrick R.
      9 April 2020 @ 01:36
      Better yet, let’s have him on!
    • WM
      Will M.
      9 April 2020 @ 22:40
      Sorry, I understand your comment, but effectively, no one really saw this coming as a shut the f world down activity. Thats makes it a black swan, SARs was totally forgotten......
  • RD
    Ryan D.
    8 April 2020 @ 14:27
    I’d love to hear what people think esp Raoul about Gold Royalty, large Gold miners like Barrick. We all know gold will do well deflation or inflation. Doesn’t it make sense to use royalties to leverage this? Miners do sell off in a liquidity event. But they did really really well after 1929...Also thoughts on Uranium? You wrote commodities are gonna implode. Though honestly Uranium looks like a different animal. Any insights appreciated. Thanks Real Vision Mastermind group!
    • CM
      Chris M.
      8 April 2020 @ 16:21
      If you want a good overview of gold with specific stock recommendations, recommend Fred Hickey's newsletter. You can connect with him in Twitter.
    • WM
      Will M.
      9 April 2020 @ 22:22
      Chris I subscribe and thoroughly endorse your comments. I dont have the time to dig deep on the miners, Hickey does and he comments of debt ratios and cash reserves in addition to general mining reports.
  • lD
    lance D.
    8 April 2020 @ 13:55
    i follow you on twitter, be helpful if you followed me back ..chop chop fella
    • WM
      Will M.
      9 April 2020 @ 22:20
      Lance your comment is obviously lost of viewers, I presume you either know Raoul or have a weird sense of humor...
  • JP
    Jonathan P.
    8 April 2020 @ 13:01
    Great video Raoul. What proportion of Cash, Gold and Bitcoin do you recommend in a portfolio going forward? And is now the time to buy Gold? Or do you envisage the price lowering in the next few weeks/months?
    • SS
      Steve S.
      8 April 2020 @ 13:08
      25% cash (Dollars), 25% Gold, 25% Bitcoin, 25% for opportunistic trading
    • EF
      Eric F.
      8 April 2020 @ 14:56
      25% equally allocated to all assets irrespective of risk is just plain stupid. Smacks of lack of any thought whatsoever and I’d recommend anyone reading that take it at that. Bitcoin is high potential payoff but could also possibly go to zero. If it can up 10 - 100x then (1) you only need a small allocation (2) risking 25% of your net worth going to zero is just reckless.
    • SS
      Steve S.
      8 April 2020 @ 15:04
      Hi Eric, That is Raoul's allocation not mine and I don't think he is stupid.
    • DB
      David B.
      8 April 2020 @ 15:29
      Steve S, if you listen to that interview, Raoul said he was "evolving" his portfolio to 25/25/25/25 over time. That could mean a lot of things. Timing is everything.
    • FW
      Felix W.
      8 April 2020 @ 15:37
      Interesting! How do you get dollars in the Eurozone?
    • EO
      Eric O.
      8 April 2020 @ 17:18
      on portfolio construction... check out the Chris Cole video with Danielle DiMartinoBooth. Check out Artemis website and read his paper: The Allegory of the Hawk and the Serpent. https://www.artemiscm.com/
    • DS
      David S.
      8 April 2020 @ 18:08
      Hey Steve, can you explain how you know/where Raoul said this is is own allocation? Thanks so much.
    • DP
      Duane P.
      8 April 2020 @ 22:37
      25% cash (Dollars), 25% Gold, 25% Bitcoin, 25% for opportunistic trading being his goal is exactly what Raoul said the other day in a podcast. Eric, I don't see how that is "equally allocated to all assets" at all. Where are equities, bonds, corporate credit, real estate and commodities?
    • DP
      Duane P.
      8 April 2020 @ 22:38
      Here's the podcast where he said it btw. http://lindzanity.libsyn.com/panic-with-friends-37-with-raoul-pal-of-real-vision-group
    • WM
      Will M.
      9 April 2020 @ 22:18
      Yes Eric O commented on Chris Cole of Artemis : his is 20% gold, 20% Commodities, 20% Equities, 20% long vol and 20% Fixed income.... ...and Eric F Chris Cole is CERTAINLY not stupid either. For folks interest Michael Lewit "The Credit Strategist" recommends 15- 20% gold, 15-20% Cash, 20% Dividend Equities, 20% absolute return and 20% income generating securities. Finally, the Safe Wealth Group in Switzerland recommend for long term wealth protection (excluding routine income / pension requirements) 50% gold, 25% Silver and 25% cash notes (US$s or Swiss Francs typically). They are as if not more bearish than Raoul.
  • SS
    Steve S.
    8 April 2020 @ 12:50
    Hi Raoul, I would be greatly interested in knowing about where you recommend buying Physical Gold and storing it as mentioned in your video. As a fellow Brit, what do you think about buying Gold and storing it at The Royal Mint? They do claim to be independent of the banking system and clearing housing but not entirely sure.
    • MR
      Michael R.
      8 April 2020 @ 15:49
      As for me, I buy physical Gold and store it in a Safety Deposit box at a Bank. Even if the Bank closes, they have to allow access to deposit boxes.
    • SS
      Steve S.
      8 April 2020 @ 16:00
      @Michael. Never, ever store Physical Gold in the bank. Numerous RV interviews explaining why. In a systemic crisis, the bank will not let you access your Gold.
    • SB
      Stephen B.
      8 April 2020 @ 18:47
      A bank deposit box is part of the banking system. You want to be in a secure storage location like Brinks or Loomis.
    • NL
      Nicholas L.
      8 April 2020 @ 22:42
      Can any of you guy link the video he referenced explaining where/how to buy and store physical gold
    • WM
      Will M.
      9 April 2020 @ 22:06
      Michael R, not so sure they have to allow access under all circumstances. Governments COULD if gold soars exact a heavy taxing price. I am more worried in the US than maybe the UK but couldn't the boxes get held up in bankruptcy proceedings and deprive you access, at least without an official minder present to log your stash? This is not a rebuke just a potential issues query? My gold is in two vaults, one vault operated by a bank but not owned by the bank (with a guaranteed access clause that i have seen), the other vault is in Cayman down the road (well access the straits) from Raoul......
  • PW
    Patrick W.
    8 April 2020 @ 12:22
    According to the FDIC web site, the deposit insurance is $250k/depositor/bank/account ownership category.
    • WM
      Will M.
      9 April 2020 @ 22:01
      Yes Raoul misspoke and used the pre- GFC figure.
  • RM
    Richard M.
    8 April 2020 @ 10:14
    Thanks Raoul , you were spot on with the Covid situation so far. And you could be right with your dire prognosis here. But,, I think you should explore, in much more detail, the likely response of Governments and CBs to these potential outcomes, quantify what is required from them, and analyse the probability of success. You touch on it but not in enough detail. I used to work in a family office that subscribed to GMI and you were drawing similar conclusions back in 2009/2010 but in hindsight (always easy!) you failed to consider the potential for successful Gov/CB intervention . They pulled it off then, but can they pull it off again ? Thanks again, really enjoy the analysis.
    • WM
      Will M.
      9 April 2020 @ 21:59
      I think its the order of magnitude difference in credit support / bailouts needed between 2008/09 and today. Secondly the baby boomers are in full fledged retirements and turning risk adverse. Thirdly the national debts cannot accommodate any significant interest rate rises. Fourthly the State / National pensions are now having to pay out and projected returns of 7% to maintain the illusion of solvency are close to being realized as a joke. Fifthly, the voters are about to get very very restless, and they are reaching for their pitchforks and looking for fuel for their torches... Finally, the EU is edging towards collapse IMHO.
  • DC
    Dan C.
    8 April 2020 @ 06:44
    Thanks Raoul for such a very insightful video. It doesn’t paint a rosy picture going forward but at least your framework helps people navigate the looming unfolding. The only concern for me is the action of government. Like a wounded animal they will react savagely when their power and money diminishes. I can see gold ownership and maybe crypto assets being banned and requisitioned by failing power structures. Regardless, we are all in for very tough times ahead. The world and life we knew pre-crisis has gone. Let’s hope the new world brings exciting opportunities.
    • DH
      David H.
      8 April 2020 @ 15:35
      Too few people own too little gold in the USA for the federal government to prohibit ownership. If, as some say, Fort Knox is an illusion (meaning the gold was sold), then there is no chance of the USA being able to rely on gold. China, maybe, but they would have to peg gold at something over $30,000 oz.
    • CF
      Christopher F.
      8 April 2020 @ 19:20
      Would love to hear Raoul's thought process on gov risk for BTC
    • WM
      Will M.
      9 April 2020 @ 21:40
      Christopher that is my main question as many others (smart folks) have said BTC is exposed to government threat.
  • EN
    Elizabeth N.
    8 April 2020 @ 06:16
    Great video, Raoul. Very eye opening stuff. In the final breakdown where you suggest bonds, gold and bitcoin do you think something like UUP would be a good/relatively safe way to play the dollar swallowing every other currency? I’m sure people smarter than me would say “why not futures, options, forex, etc” but I try to K.I.S.S. Thanks for all the info you bring to the little guys.
    • MK
      Michael K.
      8 April 2020 @ 22:15
      I think by dollar, certainly trying to play Fx is a reasonable thing, but simple actions a normal investor can take is have more cash (raise jt earn it keep it in reserve) and don’t own foreign assets, and if you’re non US based hold your savings in USD.
    • WM
      Will M.
      9 April 2020 @ 21:38
      I have the same question, in the past Raoul has said UUP works if you dont have FX capability. I own UUP, a big chunk, but some reasonable safe leverage would be entertained. I did take out a small piece of UUP calls but have read elsewhere that liquidity is not great (& hence spreads could be big?)
  • CP
    Christopher P.
    9 April 2020 @ 21:29
    It sounds like the FED will be buying $1 trillion worth of junk bonds in about 1-2 months.
  • tm
    tim m.
    9 April 2020 @ 02:29
    Raul, why can't large sums be held in "cash" or bank deposits? (23-24minute mark) Why do they have to be invested in treasuries/notes? Is it because of mandates within the institutions that have these large sums? If so, what about non-institutional large sums of money?
    • tm
      tim m.
      9 April 2020 @ 02:40
      Answering my own question, counter-party risk I suppose. FDIC insurance is only 100-250k, like you mentioned; other than that, I supposed the risk is all on the depository institution?
    • BB
      Bullionaire B.
      9 April 2020 @ 20:57
      FDIC only covers $250k per depositing entity per bank. There are over $5 trillion in deposits sitting in the US banking system which do not have any FDIC coverage. https://youtu.be/cnBPnLJzdYk?t=309
  • MR
    Matthew R.
    9 April 2020 @ 20:44
    Feedback for RV: can we keep the daily updates for essential members going forward, as I want to keep subscribing, but it isn't worth it without the daily updates, and I can't afford higher tier membership at the moment. Thanks Also the previews of expert view like this are really good, and make me want to subscribe to the higher tiers when I have a bit more cash to spare.
  • MT
    Mark T.
    8 April 2020 @ 19:35
    Crypto has counter-party risk, right? I see it as speculative, but in no way at all an alternative to holding physical gold and silver. If you don't hold it, you don't own it.
    • AM
      Abigail M.
      8 April 2020 @ 20:28
      It does not. The secure ledger is distributed through all network participants. Cannot be altered unilaterally. No counterparty.
    • CO
      Court O.
      9 April 2020 @ 00:21
      Bitcoin is decentralized as Abigail said. Two biggest (and as I see it, only) existential risks are 1) a coalition of Chinese miners obtains 50%+ of computing power enabling them to manipulate the ledger, steal bitcoin and thus destroy the integrity and trust in the asset, or 2) US and/or other countries ban banks from allowing citizens to buy bitcoin (i.e. block the "on-ramps"). In both cases, there are many countries and only one of them has an interest in preserving dollar hegemony. As far as the "51% attack," I like to think that those with the power to do it don't have the incentive. (i.e. what does China get out of destroying bitcoin? The US might get something out of it, but would destroying bitcoin really save dollar reserve status? It might preserve local capital control...) You can look at the 51% attack as a sort of counterparty risk, the miners collectively being the custodians of ownership. Most other cryptocurrencies are centralized and have obvious counterparty risk. Even though many have decentralized mining like bitcoin, they have centralized control. The founders can change the fundamental rules governing their tokens. I look at altcoins as levered bitcoin plays, maybe levered ETFs is a good comp. If bitcoin has a big run up, in the short term the alts will run way higher. Their long term prospects are much less reliable.
    • JA
      Jernej A.
      9 April 2020 @ 13:22
      @Court O. Small remark. If we witness 51% attack (this would be noticed immediately) bitcoin is instantly dead. Therefore whoever stole the BTC spent a ridiculous amount of energy to snatch a few BTC that are now worthless (note that, realistically they can double spend only the very last block of transactions)
    • BL
      Brett L.
      9 April 2020 @ 16:17
      Crypto is not anyone's liability so there is no counter-party risk. You can hold it directly, but it takes the form of a compact piece of information rather than coins or bars that you must secure. You can choose to store that information redundantly for security, or split it into pieces that must be re-joined to be used. And there are simple products that let you use pieces of steel to hold that information in a form that is discrete, portable, and durable. The closet thing to counter-party risk is the custody risk if you use a broker, such as Gemini or Coinbase. The biggest unique risks to crypto are: 1. political risk (see also: history of private gold holdings, and Mike Green's take on the dominant powers not ceding control over the monetary system) 2. handling risk (i.e., it is not familiar to many people how to safely handle abstract information and avoid fraud, hacking, accidental loss from hardware failures, and transaction mistakes) 3. uncertain future role in the economy (is crypto money, collateral, or property?)
    • AW
      Adam W.
      9 April 2020 @ 20:00
      As said in this thread, if you buy Bitcoin and take it from the exchange and into your own digital wallet then it is yours. Period. No counter-party risk at all. The power of this invention is surely underestimated.
  • DK
    Daniel K.
    8 April 2020 @ 21:12
    Raoul are you saying the bitcoin spike to 100,000(est) in going to be in 3 years? I've been trying to save up but I don't make a lot of money so it's been hard. I really hope it's not this year or I'm screwed.
    • RG
      Richard G.
      8 April 2020 @ 22:17
      The log curve of BTC suggest it is much longer then this year. 3 years is probably a bit hard too. But it could be tested or broken (the current pattern) and maybe it is turned up to 11 because of all this. I think a BTC play here is very wise. I personally have 10% of my portfolio in BTC and ETH. I don't care what it does in the short term. The upside could dwarf all of my portfolio, and the downside is 10% of my portfolio.
    • JA
      Jernej A.
      9 April 2020 @ 13:18
      If we take into account the S2F model (which I don't necessarily endorse) it should happen within 2 years or so https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25 Note that the author of this article had a video appearance on RV.
    • AW
      Adam W.
      9 April 2020 @ 19:57
      Think of Bitcoin in 10 year cycles. you have time. There is one halving every four years.
  • BM
    Bryan M.
    9 April 2020 @ 04:07
    Q for Raoul
    • BM
      Bryan M.
      9 April 2020 @ 04:11
      Sorry Raoul, I clicked when I should have clacked. So here's the Q: You say gold will be one the the primo places to go when "The End" comes and I would agree. However, you didn't mention the stocks. I have a position in gold stocks and am curious as to your views on them - if you have any, that is. Thanks a lot.
    • MK
      Michael K.
      9 April 2020 @ 19:49
      See the video with Kiril and read what bill Fleckenstein has to say
  • IM
    Ilias M.
    9 April 2020 @ 08:08
    Raul and RV team there are several questions below in the comments where it is unclear where are we on the timing with regard to the liquidity and optimism phase. Can someone clarify where are we accoriding to Raul's timeline?
    • PF
      Pierre F.
      9 April 2020 @ 08:24
      Agreed. I thought we’d have another drop early April to finish liquidation, but with this rally. It’s seems we have moved into optimism already.
    • PF
      Pierre F.
      9 April 2020 @ 08:27
      Also relates to peak cases. Which NYC are saying has occurred but did not cause any more panic selling.
    • RJ
      Richard J.
      9 April 2020 @ 19:20
      Agreed. When was this recorded? Surely we're in optimism phase now?
  • AT
    Andrea T.
    9 April 2020 @ 19:20
    I guess the Fed won't let stocks go down 80%. Trump and politician will put all the shame on them if they don't print infinite amount of money. Not a small chance that we see new ATHs in stocks. Of course, this doesn't change anything about the awful fundamentals we are in and that you explain so well. But equity markets have not been following fundamentals for a long time. Stocks up is still compatible with low velocity of money and insolvency.
  • DJ
    David J.
    9 April 2020 @ 19:18
    Raoul, do you think there is a measurable correlation between membership in extremist political groups (right or left) and the price of gold? Based on your comparison of today's world to the 1930s both might share a proximate cause?Thanks
  • PG
    Petter G.
    9 April 2020 @ 19:18
    A true freethinker. Thank you Raoul.
  • SB
    Stephen B.
    8 April 2020 @ 21:23
    You are correct to quote Mark Carney but you are not doing so accurately. He said No to RMB; No to Gold and No to Bitcoin. They want a global digital currency they alone issue and control. For Bitcoin to succeed in the way you envision requires that the BIS + Western Central Banks become irrelevant. That might happen but it requires us dislodging the world's most powerful monopoly.
    • DS
      David S.
      9 April 2020 @ 00:41
      Stephen, what you say is similar to what Mike Green more or less said on today's live interview with Raoul when voicing his skepticism about BTC. He put it like this, "Sovereign credit has value b/c they have a monopoly on violence. Bitcoin isn't backed by fighter jets and aircraft carriers." Jim Rogers says the same thing - that sovereign nations will never give up control over currency. There are a lot of smart investors behind BTC, and the future of digital currency is undeniable, but this point, as it pertains to BTC specifically, needs to be addressed here by our RealVision hosts.
    • PG
      Petter G.
      9 April 2020 @ 18:57
      Anyone who thinks that Bitcoin won't succeed because sovereigns will use their armies to squash it must be thinking that there's something to attack. What would that be specifically? How would that monopoly of violence be used?
  • DB
    David B.
    9 April 2020 @ 17:24
    Raoul, Great stuff and you've been very consistent in your long-term macro view. I have a question about your short-term road map. You refer to three stages of the current environment being Panic, Relief and then Insolvency. Your timeframes for these stages suggested the "relief" rally could extend into late spring / early summer (if I am understanding correctly). Is it possible that the timeframes are much more compressed? For example, is it possible that what we've seen in just the last week constitutes the "relief" rally as investors cheer all of the government and CB stimuli? Or maybe there will be multiple panic and relief periods that run until we get to insolvencies? I am just wanting to be sure I am understanding your framework and that "time" could be relative in this fast moving environment. Thanks!!
    • DB
      David B.
      9 April 2020 @ 17:35
      Oh, another David B!
    • jR
      jacco R.
      9 April 2020 @ 17:52
      this seems to be the questions everyone wants answered by Raoul, especially after today's additional FED bazooka's. Waiting for thoughts and insights. Thanks!!
    • NB
      Nicola B.
      9 April 2020 @ 18:31
      That is a good question, I ain't Raoul but I would like to say I can see the sense behind what you are saying.
  • MS
    Matthew S.
    9 April 2020 @ 18:29
    Feel very fortunate to have you share your thesis. I really don't know a single other platform where the average person has access to such amazing information at such an affordable price. Seems clear that Real Vision is fulfilling its mission of democratizing access to financial market news.
  • TE
    Thomas E.
    9 April 2020 @ 18:12
    Wondering if the relief rally is what is happening right now? That would mean the next leg down would be in 4-6 weeks? Longer?
  • CN
    Charles N.
    8 April 2020 @ 22:35
    What happens to cryptocurrencies when and if large swathes of the US and rest of world degrade to a situation where electrical infrastructure is knocked out? I'm trying to understand a worst possible case and would like to find out how dependent cryptos are on networks which are in turn dependent on power sources to keep the networks operating? Good Luck To Us All.
    • JR
      John R.
      9 April 2020 @ 04:59
      Cryptos would go down too which is why you also need to own physical gold and silver.
    • JA
      Jernej A.
      9 April 2020 @ 13:16
      There are two aspects to your question about networks in the Bitcoin system. 1. In order to process BTC transactions you need miners to work on them. So long as there is electricity in some part of the world, this would go on. 2. If internet & electricity is shut in some part of the world (say in the US) you can still you can still access (send & get) BTC transaction via satellite. So long as there is some electricity and internet available in some part of the world you're fine.
    • SB
      Stephen B.
      9 April 2020 @ 18:12
      As a former power company executive I would advise: (i) most conceivable black/brown outs might last one week max. We have experienced these before and while disruptive they are speedily recoverable from. Note, however, that most standby generators, such as in airports, hospitals or data center's, only have the capacity to store 2 to 3 days of diesel supply, so the pain gets progressively worse after that point; (ii) the truly scary proposition is a multi month or multi year failure. That has never happened before but is perfectly possible with a (natural) CMP event or a (man made) EMP event, which might require key parts of the power grid (supergrid transformers) to be re manufactured, shipped (probably from China or Europe) and installed. In such an eventuality you probably have bigger problems to worry about than not being able to access your Bitcoin but for these reasons I favor physical gold.
  • CS
    Charles S.
    9 April 2020 @ 18:04
    yeah, head & shoulders my foot ! ;)
  • PB
    Paul B.
    9 April 2020 @ 02:12
    I think you are spot on...I don't hold Bitcoin yet...I think it will go down with the Stock Market and forced selling...I'm with you on Bitcoin going forward and I'm waiting to get in yet
    • KL
      Kyle L.
      9 April 2020 @ 04:49
      My view exactly!
    • CG
      Chris G.
      9 April 2020 @ 06:05
      Start getting in now. Dollar cost average.
    • DB
      David B.
      9 April 2020 @ 17:39
      The next 4-year halving is a month away. That's always resulted in a huge Bitcoin boom. I'd get in now.
  • JM
    James M.
    8 April 2020 @ 10:30
    Hi Thanks for all your work. May I ask 3 questions. 1. What would be the outcome if the Chinese state managed to take control of all the miners based in China and that resulted in 51% hash rate? 2. What prevents any central bank printing the total market cap of BTC and buying all available ? With the current QE infinity it would be a 3 day printing exercise for them to offer well over market value of all btc/crypto in liquidity and take over the majority if not all the BTC available and therefore control it? 3. You dont think the Japanification by all CBs ie buying all assets directly or indirectly will give them another chance to run this play one more time?...Many thanks i greatly appreciate your work.
    • PW
      PETER W.
      8 April 2020 @ 11:42
      Hi James - my 2 cents for what they may be worth: 1 - what was learned from the BCH/BSV "hash war" was that obtaining 51% is not sufficient to control a chain, you must sustain that % over time until the minority chain falls into disuse. Furthermore, it isn't just about the miners. Many other participants in the network can act to shut down a fork even if 51% or more of miners succeed in a sustained 'attack'. For example, were "China" to do as you suggest (or anyone else for that matter), foreign exchanges could refuse to accept (or be compelled by law to reject) newly minted coins from that fork or indeed any coins with an "altered" history. Same goes for foreign wallets, retailers, on and off ramps, financial institutions, funds... it is the sum of all of these parts that makes the network. 2 - to some extent, the response in 1 above covers the issue in question 2 - the difference being that one is caused by a corporate rather than a hostile take-over. However, a key concern in both cases is whether the 51% attack results in any altered transactions. If not, then it really doesn't matter whether at any given point a party obtains 51% of the hash power. 3 - if you take the view espoused by MMT, this is not really a problem so much as what the fiscal stimulus is used for. On the MMT view, the size of the debt in and of itself is of no significance.
    • MR
      Michael R.
      8 April 2020 @ 15:54
      Andreas Antonopoulos has a good answer regarding a 51% attack. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncPyMUfNyVM
    • JM
      James M.
      9 April 2020 @ 16:25
      Thank you for the reply, Pete n Mick.
  • CG
    Chris G.
    9 April 2020 @ 16:14
    That’s why I subscribed
  • PJ
    Peter J.
    9 April 2020 @ 14:28
    Great piece, even if it doesn't pan out (which I hope it doesn't) the logic and process are spot on.
  • NB
    Nicola B.
    9 April 2020 @ 14:19
    Thank you very much Raoul for letting real vision essential members have access to this. This is one of the best videos so far I have watched on real vision as it has put together all the videos, information from people like Nicholas Merten, Alex Saunders, yourself and everyone else on the real vision platform to help not just big investors but the everyday people get in the know and start to do things not doable when information along these lines weren't available to the average Jo. Thank you very much
  • SY
    Shuo Y.
    8 April 2020 @ 20:17
    Raoul, thanks for sharing! For those who still owning some June 30th SPY put position, do you think better to close it or holding?
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      8 April 2020 @ 20:34
      Hold, what's your strike, they are taking this up to 2800ish and it can't last, the next downturn is coming very soon, I believe within 6 weeks.
    • SY
      Shuo Y.
      9 April 2020 @ 01:18
      Strike price is $200 SPY, I am quit nervous in the recent rally.
    • ab
      alfred b.
      9 April 2020 @ 13:52
      2800 important resistance probably today. If it goes a bit thru 2800, I will close and revisit as it could melt up. 2060 my target for short.