The Uranium Catalyst Nobody Expected

Published on
April 15th, 2020
Duration
48 minutes


The Uranium Catalyst Nobody Expected

The Expert View ·
Featuring Arthur Hyde

Published on: April 15th, 2020 • Duration: 48 minutes

COVID-19 has been a massive disruptor of global supply chains and has already had a huge effect on energy commodity prices. Demand shocks like those seen in the oil market have caused prices to plummet while prices for other commodities are rising as supply chains break down. Arthur Hyde, partner and co-portfolio manager at Segra Capital Management, joins Real Vision to explain why he believes uranium falls squarely in the second camp. Hyde argues that higher uranium prices have been a long time coming and that this crisis could be the spark that finally puts the power back in the hands of producers. He drills down on the unique dynamics of the uranium market, the supply and demand backdrop coming into the crisis, and the way he sees this setup playing out over the next few years and beyond. Filmed on April 13, 2020.

Comments

Transcript

  • DR
    David R.
    31 July 2020 @ 21:25
    The HURA ticker symbol (in CAD on Toronto Stock Exchange) is a good ETF that includes all names said in the video.
  • DH
    Don H.
    3 May 2020 @ 17:58
    Please pardon me if this question is a bit naive, but at about 7:45 left in the interview Arthur makes a comment about receiving a 10% coupon while waiting. These uranium companies don’t seem to pay a dividend anything close to that so I am wondering what that means? Any insights would be appreciated. Thanks!
    • OI
      Omar I.
      8 May 2020 @ 18:26
      Did you ever figure your question out?
  • SS
    S S.
    15 April 2020 @ 12:19
    Investors have been burned on Uranium prices for years. How can Uranium prices go up over the next 12 months when global demand is falling?
    • SS
      S S.
      15 April 2020 @ 12:24
      On another note, how can you recommend Penny stocks to any serious investor? Denison Mines trades at 0.40CAD and Nexgen at 1.40CAD
    • DP
      D P.
      15 April 2020 @ 16:34
      Have you checked uranium price recently?
    • NN
      Nathan N.
      15 April 2020 @ 18:02
      TBF, he does mention in the video they look at demand 5-6 years out, and are primarily focused on the supply side for purposes of investing.
    • PC
      Paul C.
      15 April 2020 @ 20:11
      It's a good question... as someone interested in the sector during the Covid-19 madness it's one that concerns me. Although Arthur's point about the base-load power is a good one.
    • JT
      Jay T.
      16 April 2020 @ 01:09
      Because, unless countries want a lot of lights to go out, the utilities have to lock in supply soon as many contracts begin expiring next year and beyond and it takes at least ~2 years from order to receiving the fuel rods. On the supply side, unless those longer-term (and higher priced...probably at least $50/ lb) contracts start happening even more supply destruction will happen. The Kazaks and Cameco cannot supply the upcoming demand. New mine supply is needed, but to induce that supply prices are needed that cover the cost of capital and a profit. BTW, China just announced today that the covid/ Wuhan virus will not delay the opening of the reactors they have under construction.
    • DJ
      D J.
      16 April 2020 @ 17:13
      There is a more serious question at play here. The Gates foundation is investing in a reactor that is supposed to depleted uranium. Online in 2-4 years
    • KP
      Kasper P.
      17 April 2020 @ 20:35
      D J. 2-4 years ? Not gonna happen!
    • lm
      luke m.
      23 April 2020 @ 21:10
      what the hell is Bill Gates doing investing in a nuclear reactor .... that's seriously concerning if true considering his background in eugenicists and his sudden obsession with compulsory vaccines for something that's less deadly than the flu.
  • PT
    Pascal T.
    15 April 2020 @ 21:59
    Great interview! Uranium went up above $30 since the video was shot. I decided to open a WhatsApp group to exchange ideas how to play this, feel free to join @all: https://chat.whatsapp.com/LREYaCGhGUR09Tk5kBGnqm
    • XF
      Xavier F.
      16 April 2020 @ 01:35
      great idea
    • JC
      John C.
      23 April 2020 @ 05:08
      Thanks....should just put this on Telegram easier no?
  • GB
    Gold B.
    21 April 2020 @ 06:58
    RV - thanks for putting up the filmed date!
  • GS
    Georgi S.
    20 April 2020 @ 22:00
    We should not forget that the short end of this market will indeed see a reaction since multiple Nuclear power station are already starting to postpone their spring maintenances into the latter part of the year and even next year. Well since we are speaking of a heavily regulated market, EDF already announced an increase of the summer temporary mothballing/shut downs in order to save running hours / fuel( you are limited in the amount of hour you can safely run-up to your next maintenance ) . And there will be marginal power plant switching, just check the rest of the power plants marginal costs..
  • BG
    Bart G.
    17 April 2020 @ 10:33
    Good presentation! I bought URA back in 2017 and -30% so far lol, starting to get a bit frustrated with this thing. Also Uranium Royalty Corp might be interesting play here long term.
    • PC
      Paul C.
      18 April 2020 @ 04:29
      I was in URA back in 2018 until I realised it wasn't a pure uranium play. Uranium Participation Corp or Yellowcake are a play on the metal which should do well with this catalyst that Arthur presents here. I've got positions in CCJ, DNN, BSK (up 220% from the low), EU, UUUU, LAM, GLO & FMC. All very good & experienced management teams & UUUU has a processing mill & now branching into rare earths. As mentioned below, if you go to Crux Investor you can watch detailed interviews with these CEOs. Uranium Insider.com also does some quality research on the companies.
    • bp
      bart p.
      18 April 2020 @ 22:07
      URA sucks and so does URC imo... best to just stick with cameco for u probably
  • BT
    B T.
    16 April 2020 @ 20:52
    Hi guys, how can you invest in Uranium? Are there ETFs you would recommend?
    • JS
      John S.
      16 April 2020 @ 23:15
      Horizons Global Uranium Index ETF
    • rc
      raj c.
      18 April 2020 @ 01:39
      Most of the stocks he recommends can be invested through North Shore Global Uranium Mining ETF - URNM. The size of this ETF is tiny.
  • TB
    Tony B.
    17 April 2020 @ 23:18
    Thank you, Arthur....very complete overview on uranium market. Best I've seen in a long time.....
  • JF
    Jim F.
    17 April 2020 @ 22:45
    great View, super thx
  • JP
    John P.
    17 April 2020 @ 19:25
    I love uranium thesis long term, but rather than dig into the miners I just treat Cameco as a quasi savings vessel. Minimal downside. Very minimal dilution risk. Proven track record and management. Stock will still triple at some point in the next 10 years.
  • SC
    Sam C.
    17 April 2020 @ 03:02
    Boss resources (BOE) ..... asx listed, approved to mine and export , built plant gathering cobwebs currently, $100 mill AUD mkt cap.... in uranium friendly state ( south Australia - same state as Olympic dam) . I’d be surprised if these guys don’t own this one if they have uranium exposure in Australia. Sachem cove owns 1.87%
  • ml
    m l.
    17 April 2020 @ 01:33
    Good video finally directionally heading towards my cup of tea
  • RM
    Richard M.
    15 April 2020 @ 12:58
    Sorry RV, but Max's comment about events on the ground overtaking comments made in the video only emphasizes the point of YOUR CUSTOMER'S constant requests to put "filmed on dates" BACK in the video description section. I really do not understand your obstinance regarding this very valid request. [and I'm sorry, but Ed's retort that RV is "striving" to publish within 3 days of filming is really quite inadequate (and I really like Ed too, so this is no put down on Ed)]. Just my 2 cents! :-)
    • JC
      Jason C.
      15 April 2020 @ 18:09
      So true. If RV cannot deliver on this simple request it will be a very telling signal.
    • PW
      Phil W.
      15 April 2020 @ 20:18
      I also requested this Richard many years ago! Glad you raised the issue
    • GR
      Grant R.
      17 April 2020 @ 01:00
      Real vision has a poor website, impossible to search, can't follow an interviewer, bad all around. At least they got rid of the horrible rock music. Good content though.
    • GR
      Grant R.
      17 April 2020 @ 01:06
      More on the bad website, they do a series on gold, but can't subscribe/follow that series, the word gold is not even in the name of the video (only on the video snapshot picture). Or what that the "crypto" series or both. No playlists for the series. Maybe they can't afford technical help? Audio downloads are slow, 22k to the US, and often fail these days.
  • bp
    bart p.
    16 April 2020 @ 23:24
    Cameco, Uranium Participation Corp, NexGen etc are great buys here! little more volatile but also great buys are stocks like enCore energy, global atomic, goviex, ur-energy for those with a bigger risk appetite
  • JO
    Johnny O.
    16 April 2020 @ 12:00
    If only I'd invested in uranium plays each time some RV presenter has told us it's the next big thing over the years, I'd have halved my money. On the other hand, I'm hugely in favour of Gen IV nuclear power. Will wait to see some more positive price action.
    • JS
      John S.
      16 April 2020 @ 23:16
      Time stamped!
  • AS
    Aki S.
    16 April 2020 @ 14:20
    Loved the summary and conclusion ending! I don't always have time for the whole interview, so it really help to have a brief version of it. Please add this section to every interview!
  • AP
    Ash P.
    16 April 2020 @ 01:31
    Cameco shut down in 2017 for 10 months and turned that into an indefinite suspension. Even today if they wanted to get back to work they could - Agnico Eagle went back to work in Quebec today. Uranium spot is $31 and Cameco's price to produce is $30and it only just got there - so that's your answer right there. In fact they've been supplying long term contracts off that spot market for some time. The real story may be that these frequent supply management shutdowns are having an impact on stockpiled inventory which the WNA expects to start tapering in 2020.
  • RA
    Robert A.
    15 April 2020 @ 20:33
    Just as an aside, it’s my understanding that Canada has deemed Mining as an “essential business” so perhaps CCJ start up will be easier when the decision to restart is made should the Covid Virus still be in effect.
  • DM
    Dominic M.
    15 April 2020 @ 19:15
    Great interview - thanks guys.
  • js
    john s.
    15 April 2020 @ 19:13
    Justin Huhn @uraniuminsider and Matt Gordon @CruxInvestor are great resources on this sector.
  • dw
    douglas w.
    15 April 2020 @ 19:11
    To paraphrase one of Raoul's quotes - Make sure your time/trade horizon and investment horizon align cannot be more appropriate when trading Uranium companies. When the entire sector has been completely annihilated, stick to the large producers in safe jurisdictions. Doubles and Triples will play out in names like Cameco and NexGen so to invest too heavily in junior miners that have no production and just speak of "ounces in the ground" is purely speculative. Although this administration drones on about MERICA first! Its vital uranium energy contract purchases do not reflect this. A similar dynamic is present in the Uranium energy space as it is in oil, in that the U.S. has been beholden to the Saudis even though they continually suffocate U.S. based oil&shale producers with oversupply. To have any meaningful positive restructuring of supply-demand, the U.S. needs to make it a priority to purchase Uranium from U.S. based miners instead of fulfilling cheaper legacy contracts with Russian/Kazakh companies that have firmly placed the sole of their boot on global mine production. The current state of the world will push some to begin retooling capitalism to incorporate the long-term importance of domestic supply. With the continued electrification of our world, investigating the opaque Uranium energy market will become even more crucial to domestic economic security. I don't believe it will be a demand shock, rather a currency shock, broad based commodities rally that will spark a Uranium rally.
  • RK
    Roger K.
    15 April 2020 @ 16:47
    cameco, Kazatoprom, UPC, yellow cake, NexGen, Denison mines.
    • AC
      Andrew C.
      15 April 2020 @ 16:59
      ‘Straya, mate! PDN, PEN, BMN
  • JV
    James V.
    15 April 2020 @ 16:39
    Arthur, thank you for an articulate and thorough presentation. Excellent job! It looks like UPC was acquired by Energy Fuels. Is that correct and if so, would you include EFR on your list?
  • rc
    raj c.
    15 April 2020 @ 12:29
    Most of the stocks he recommends can be invested through North Shore Global Uranium Mining ETF - URNM
    • JV
      James V.
      15 April 2020 @ 16:31
      Caveat emptor: tiny ETF with a market cap of only $3.7 million
  • PJ
    Peter J.
    15 April 2020 @ 12:03
    First class presentation , look forward to the next piece on the nuclear industry
  • BP
    Bryce P.
    15 April 2020 @ 08:01
    Get Michael Alkin & Amir Adnani on to discuss Uranium too.
    • PC
      Paul C.
      15 April 2020 @ 11:34
      Thanks for this piece Arthur & RV - quality insights. Alkin is also a Big Dog... great podcast available. Although if anyone's after some quality & concise research into the companies within the space go to uraniuminsider.com... Some great detail, especially on small caps that have astronomical upside potential.
  • JB
    Jack B.
    15 April 2020 @ 11:28
    Excellent
  • KD
    Kaj D.
    15 April 2020 @ 11:20
    Very informative & well explained, thx
  • JV
    Jan V.
    15 April 2020 @ 10:31
    Props to RVTV for publishing this video at the dawn of a new uranium bull market!