Objectively Macro has failed to predict the path of markets since march....i have 0 faith any of this will pan out

Is it just me or is the market doing the exact opposite of what Raoul suggested?

Is silver an option?

Is silver an option?

Awsome screensaver, where did you get that?

How do you see this narrative change now we have a vaccine? :)

Raoul, do you think the current move in the dollar and equities etc is still the initial false move on the election? Thanks

Thanks! Your analysis is always very helpful.

Virus is overplayed - over trumped - pun intended - there is an interplay between the advance of the virus but science and healthcare system to handle it is also advancing. so testing - yes and more of it - take the chinese lesson to heart. From there its a balance of keeping the economy open and minimizing the virus until the vaccines and other treatments become mainstream.

Covid is not spreading, Covid tests are spreading. Most of the increase in cases can be explained with the false positive rates of these tests. Remember, if you have a car accident, go into hospital and then test positive for Covid, you still are a Covid hospitalisation. It is nonsense to say that no lockdown is the same as lockdowns. The hospitality industry is well alive in Sweden, and they didn't take as much of a hit as the others. I agree we are in trouble. They also don't live in a vacuum. Governments are factually going nuts. But we are in trouble with or without Covid, although the Covid mass hysteria is putting everything into a new gear.

You have to choose a side, either people who are part of the larger (boomer) generation don't spend and look inward, as you have said in prior videos, or they do. So which is it? Our parents staying at home should be relatively irrelevant as to the "cratering" of the economy by unnecessary lockdown measures. The real issue is that businesses, restaurants, and other retail - which would be supported and just fine if not intentionally locked out - are supported more largely by younger generations, as per your thesis. I do agree with the banking analysis though. What's more is that the really big waves or crises or crashes ... they don't come until late 2021-22.

Raoul, is your view on gold the same as on the gold miners? Shouldn't we wait for turmoil and a sell-off?

What about QBTC? How does it compare with GBTC?

What is that beautiful chart besides Raoul`s left eye? I'd buy it.

Thanks Raoul, a thought provoking video. On Bitcoin: if it's not successful as a currency, it eventually goes to ~zero. If it is successful as a currency, the governments outlaw it and it goes to ~zero - e.g. accept bitcoin for a pizza and you go to jail. What am I missing?

All of this ignores a fiscal response prior to the end of the yr - a crapshoot for sure - this will play once Trump concedes (which for him is to place blame - take it move on - no more reality tv in 3 mos) and it will become clear whether he and McConnell wants scorched earth. The Republican party now in a rock and a hard place - if they (the Republican elite and Biden's emissaries) push a deal will get done before year end.

OBE at this point - US on an exponential curve at the point of this note - so whatever Biden does(he won) is delayed for 3 mos at best...and Trump is playing golf while the xtry unravels until he gives in....

Sorry left out the key xtry - China - they are "growing" again

What about the "narrative" - GDP coming back - ok - as an export xtry who are they selling to?

Thanks Raoul for this clear analysis ! With all that information around, i sometimes losse direction...

I've still to hear a convincing argument why governments are going to allow themselves to lose control of their currencies by letting bitcoin essentially replace them. First I have to think their will be heightened regulation, possibly outlawing it, possibly only higher taxes... and eventually they'll come out with their own digital currency. Why would the U.S., for example, allow bitcoin to begin replacing the U.S. dollar? And before anyone says they can't stop it, that's BS. Of course they can stop it. They can revert it to a fringe use which then takes away all the growth.

USD weakening again, by a lot, even with full "gridlock" scenario baked in (Biden White House vs McConnell Senate). EURUSD and GBPUSD strengthening against odds rather than weakening. Post-election US equity rally also one of the best in over a century. Food for thought.

Raoul mentioned it's a good time to enter gold because a lot of the speculative trades on gold have been flushed out. Is there any metric that can measure speculation on gold to support this?

https://www.ft.com/content/08c4eb8c-442c-11e9-a965-23d669740bfb Martin Wolf in 2019: "Suppose, then, that our economies were to fall into a deep recession, yet still have near zero real interest rates and very low nominal rates, too. Suppose, too, that, inflation were somewhere between zero and two per cent. Then the response to a recession would require strongly negative short-term nominal interest rates, possibly as low as minus 5 per cent. That would, to put it mildly, create a wasps’ nest of technical, financial and political problems."

This proves the world is run by secret societies. Do the math, even if you take there numbers. Divide the cases by 7 billion people. This is a big fat nothing burger promoted by the media and highly placed people in government to push for social change eroding freedom and civil liberties. The only thing that puts a smile on my face is knowing liberals are swallowing their tongue and buying guns. MOLAN LABE

Very lucid analysis. It resonates a lot to me. I am not sure about his view on the US$, but living in Brazil I can confirm that the weakness of the Real (and the ruble and turkish lira) has been astounding and may signal problems in other currencies. I know I sould not pay attention to short-term market moves but I am baffled by US futures soaring today, bitcoin falling (contrary to gold) and the euro relative stable... What is going on?

So, the 30y "large speculator" is the shortest on record https://www.barchart.com/futures/commitment-of-traders/technical-charts/ZB*0 ... but the same on the 10ys is flat or net long (to a smaller extent than the 30y in # contracts and given duration mismatch) https://www.barchart.com/futures/commitment-of-traders/technical-charts/ZN*0 https://www.barchart.com/futures/commitment-of-traders/technical-charts/TN*0 thus the 30y short is a mix of steepener and outright short. https://www.barchart.com/futures/commitment-of-traders/technical-charts/ZB*0 Recall PTJ in May 2020: The Yield Curve [is] historically a great defense against stagflation or a central bank intent on inflating. For our purposes we use long 2-year notes and short 30-year bonds Let's see how much juice in TLT, which is longer than 10y... Raoul has a rather good record with these trades!

With the world in so much debt to itself, the CBs will do everything to prevent interest rates rising which is starting to occur at the long end. That means any wholesale liquidation of Treasuries will be monetised by the Fed. But the USD is a massively crowded trade due to its reserve status and should the emergence of a truly international means of exchange emerge out of the crypto space (thereby removing the US's exorbitant privilege) it will leave current holders of US debt in offshore jurisdictions with potentially devastating FX losses. A perfect storm could be coming for the bond bears of the world.

Great talk Raoul. Do you have any thoughts on what a potential Brexit deal do to the EUR and GBP vis a vis USD?

Why is this not on the first page of the front page???

Raoul if you express the bond trade via futures options, what levels would you use? Any chance you could update Pro members on this as an additional way to play?

Soooooooo, are all 17,000 or so of the open interest contracts in the March 2021 170 TLT calls yours?

Btw, is Ethereum the future Bitcoin? Which one has a better relation of price to value?

I agree with most of what you said here. I think you have under estimated the speed that stimulus will come in a divided government. I think the politicians will do stimulus because of the pain on Main Street and the impact on markets. I think the surprise will be that the dollar goes no where. Yes bitcoin and gold higher

Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but can’t help but think what a tough audience the few who disliked this video are. Thanks for the clarity Raoul.

RAUL WHAT IS THE BEST WAY TO BUY BITCOIN?

Great insight Raoul, thanks!

Great stuff, Raul. How do you buy Bitcoin? Via GBTC? What are the other (better?) options? Cheers

If March is anything to go by Bitcoin hates a dollar screaming higher

Why does dollar have this smile?

Here is a counter to the anti-reflation argument — and also to the negative rates argument. Food for thought. In terms of reflation trades, one could argue the market is discounting a period of years rather than months. Yes, there may be a fiscal desert between now and Jan 20. But why can't the market look four months forward, or even four years forward? Imagine the market discounting a Biden sweep across a four YEAR time horizon, rather than a four MONTH time horizon. Imagine the market attempting to DCF $10 trillion worth of fiscal between now and 2024. Now imagine the short-term pain of Q42020 increasing the size of the fiscal on the back-end. One could argue that everything you are saying about the virus is right, and yet, one could say the increased pain of Q42020 will cause permanent real economy damage which increases the net size of the fiscal response running multiple years out, which in turn means the fiscal impulse reverberates even more. Then, too, remember this: All of the big corporate players are going to survive. Why? Because the Fed has their back. The big banks will all survive too. Why? Because the Fed has their back. In the Q42020 Covid disaster scenario, it is the little guy — the mom and pop retailers — who get destroyed. But what does that do for the big corporate players, who are sheltered by credit lines from the Fed? It increases their long range profits by killing off the competition from small and medium-size enterprises! If Covid comes in and crushes everyone small in Q4, the wasteland left behind will be something for McDonalds and Target and Amazon to colonize. Wall Street will love that. Next up, on the U.S. and negative rates. Why would the U.S. need to embrace negative rates if the government can just spend trillions instead? Negative rates in Europe are a function of straitjacketed fiscal response reined in by the Bundesbank. But in a Biden admnistration backed by a Dem senate, you have no straitjacket. You have the ability to spend like there is no tomorrow, because the U.S. has the balance sheet strength to support it, and the "exorbitant privilege" of a world reserve currency that can absorb massive spending besides. Also: With all this fear of the dollar getting too strong, why wouldn't the Biden administration open the fiscal floodgates, deliberately trash the dollar, and usher in an American manufacturing renaissance through a lowered cost of exports? If the US dollar has such an impulse toward strength, why not use that to fiscalize the heck out of everything, and make the farmers and manufacturers happy by making US goods dirt cheap around the world? Given the above, negative rates (which don't work anyway) could be avoided by the U.S. via simply spending so much freaking money they create inflation almost at will, which the U.S. is uniquely positioned to do with the right political regime (in part because there ain't no currency like the world's reserve currency). My final counter to your argument: Price action. Look at what the bank ETFs (KBE and KRE) are doing today. They are surging again. And look how gold and silver miners have been holding up in a relatively decent way. If we were heading for dollargeddon again, GDX and SIL and gold and silver and copper would all be tanking. They aren't. Maybe you are right and all kinds of prices are wrong. But maybe, just maybe, the market is looking at discounting four YEARS of U.S. fiscal ahead, rather than just four months, and also discounting the fact that no matter how bad Covid gets, the big equity players and the big banks survive, and that means both will be around to roll around in profits provided by government largesse as Biden adopts a pro-US export campaign by selling the snot out of the dollar organically vai fiscal bonanza plus backdoor blue chip jubilee (maybe Vice President Harris gets her wish of $2,000 per month per family, which in turn goes to Amazon and Disney and WalMart and Chipotle and…). The anti-reflation narrative as presented is quite plausible. The trouble is, a longer duration narrative is equally plausible, and the longer-dated one isn't at odds with price across a bunch of instruments! Added note: I have some bullish dollar positions on, but also some reflation positions too, and a very large Bitcoin position. So I'm not a hardcore believer in any camp, just playing devil's advocate here… and sticking with the guardrails of price action in terms of where to place my chips...

“Don’t bring your biases to the party, bring your analysis”. And any sane analysis right now says play the probabilities as there are no certainties - except uncertainty!

I think Raul said by mistake that the Turkish Lira hit all-time highs. I think he meant that it hit all time lows!

I'd really like to see an analysis of the underlying economic data on the deflation versus inflation narrative. Having the data backup the narrative would be extremely reassuring. There's a lot of varying factors pushing in both directions and it doesn't seem clear yet which one wins out.

Raoul or anyone else than may be able to help, I just bought some bitcoing and ethereum in my tradestation account. What is the safest place app/website people are using to store their coins so they dont have to worry about being hacked?

Ok

$GLD a reasonable choice for gold accumulation?

Raoul is always the Boss! thanks for this

The problem is Raoul and Julian's views are opposite each other

You finally called it R-Naught! : ) I don't know why, but that makes me happy. Previous videos' had comments mentioning that, and I thought you did not care to update your knowledge. That was a bit worrisome, as I am an avid follower of your outlook on the economy. I want my visionaries to be open to new things, which I am sure you are.

One curious situation with 401Ks. They have limited choices and one glaring choice, most if not all lack is cash and precious metals. They essentially force participants into stock or bond funds. So the millennial can move their money around (or reduce contributions), but they can't take it out of the market.

Thanks Raoul, Good stuff.

Provocative and exactly what we look to Raoul for. Thank you! Nevertheless, there are some BIG assumptions --and I would love to have Raoul [and other members, too!] comment on these: 1. WHAT IF life just goes on?... and USA states do NOT do lockdowns? [Most people are fed up with the covid restrictions to the point that policing them would be virtually impossible.] 2. WHAT IF, for the most part, hospitals can handle the increased number of covid cases? ...Life and economy just go on? 3. WHAT IF: Republicans panic from a Blue Wave, and decide perhaps they should pass a stimulus bill, within a couple weeks of the election?... Life and the economy go on? I can see how gold could benefit. Do equities soar again? 4. WHAT IF boomers actually are not removing as much money from equities as has been predicted? Similarly, what if millennials keep investing? Thanking you in advance.

1. Don't bring your biases (note to Austrians) to the party. Invest based on the realities, as they exist today. 2. Governments are all in on COVID panic. So further repression/lockdown moves are coming However even if that did not happen, people, particularly boomers are locking themselves down. Result: significant economic weakness coming. 3. Even if Biden wins, there is no major stimulus (we are in a lame duck situation) until early 2021. 4. USD (due to short squeeze caused by foreign private sector USD denominated debt) looks good. 5. US long rates heading negative. So bonds look good. 6. Europe in deep trouble, banks could get nationalized. Massive monetization coming. 7. Gold and BTC look good. But Raoul remains a bit short/underweight, in part because there could be buying opportunities in ST deflationary events.

Thanks Raoul. Great piece. Just to clarify with the antibodies, its not necessarily a bad thing when we loose anti bodies. The body still remembers the virus and the chance of severe reinfection drops significantly. The antibodies are the highest at the time of infection and immediately after.

Wow ... fantastic analysis. Feel very lucky indeed to have discovered Real Vision in the last month !

Great insight - thanks Raoul

Brilliant analysis.

Another issue that Raoul could comment one of these days. I do not know if I am seing too much but while oil is tanking, oil stocks like Exxon, Shell, Chevron, etc etc are not behaving that badly... Are they possibly bottoming finally?

There's alot of similaralities between Bitcoin and the Tulip bubble.

Again Strong Dollar case...

Thanks real vision, my portfolio increase due to the bitcoin, gold and gold miner positions. I recently sold half and moved to the TLT call option, really like this bet.

Simple, Clear , Excellent

This video is the real digital gold

Very insightful Raoul :)

Brilliant update thanks!

Thanks for giving us your Sunday night. It is very much appreciated.

Companies will have to liquidate their assets to survive. That is why I am also buying LQDT, KAR, and other auction and liquidity services.

Fantastic!

"Russian mining company Polyus has claimed that its undeveloped Sukhoi Log gold deposit in Siberia is the biggest in the world, with proven reserves of 40 million ounces." I will keep buying BTC!!!

Clear, erudite, and timely, per usual. Thanks Raoul and team.

Why is contested election = dollar positive? Doesn’t political instability = dollar lower? Bush v Gore in 2000 USD fell when it was contested. Thx for the video!

Typically brilliant. Thank you.

Thanks Raoul. very sobering observations. For a glimpse of sunshine (?), look at asia (Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, Korea, Australia, even China - read locally there were 600M+ travellers during October Golden Week). Here in HK, we're pretty much back to pre-covid re: movement, shops/restaurants open (max 6 seatings), bars, basketball courts, etc. Life is pretty good/normal, but even at that lots of empty retail shops in causeway bay, tsim sha tsui, wan chai as people consumption behaviour changed. We're hitting insolvency phase re: large corps with Cathay Pacific 1st to announce mass layoffs, worse than SARS and we expect it will get worse till Feb 2021/Chinese New Year where year end bonuses may be given out with pink slips next year. And this is with covid under control in the city.

Great macro overview, Raoul. I would add one aspect. The stock mkt just had a stealth 3 Sigma drop last week. That is most unusual and never happens unless something serious is at play 'under the hood'. It is my firm understanding given all the evidence that the global/US economy is experiencing an existential crisis and is on life support. If this is correct, in order to survive for a while longer, it requires moooore stimulus, which is not to be forthcoming without a major crisis that forces it. It appears to me that the 3 Sigma event is a warning of what that crisis will be. A stock mkt crash would do the trick faster than much else, and is enough of a systemic threat to provide the required result. I expect that to occur this week. Such a perfect set up. A cluster f**k election followed immediately by an FOMC meeting. The election as cover to really focus the minds at the FOMC. Any move below SPX 3100 (200 MA) this week and there be dragons. Alastair McLeod of Goldmoney says hyper inflation has begun with the definition that CB's have lost control of printing. I believe that this election will trigger a shift to a much faster crisis pace. Not long to find out. Great work.

Thanks Raoul, really appreciate you and the team getting this out on a sunday.

Why no comments

As an engineer, I will give three cheers to "analyzing the data". The data doesn't care what you think, and emotions are not tools of cognition. Well done Raoul. Thank you for the rational views.

Fantastic summary. Really appreciate the big picture view.

Simply the best thinker we have. Thank you for doing this on a Sunday evening.

Thanks Raoul. Here in Australia we have the RBA and Melbourne Cup tomorrow on top of the US elections - triple whammy. One involves alcohol, so you can guess where the fun is at for most "traders". This time everything is real I guess. Thanks for the heads up on how you are seeing things. Cheers.

Probably right in the short run. For the longer run, I think Louis-Vincent Gave will be right about the USD. Regardless, all roads lead to gold.

Thank you Raoul,.

Incredible video. THANK YOU!

Will deflation not push the real rates higher as nominals are pinned down? How will that be good for gold?

Very considerate of you to prepare this on a Sunday. Extremely useful. News from Europe and particularly Spain are really worrying: food banks are collapsing, riots in major cities this weekend... Let's see how everything plays out in the coming weeks.

I find the clear non political logical thinking very refreshing. These updates are really helpful as I was just outlining my thoughts for the week. Thanks for the insight.

Thank you Raoul!

I love Raoul's commentary and deep thinking. Seriously one of the great minds in macro analysis.

It would be helpful if the link for slides was clickable on iOS. Now I have to go to the website... thanks for reading the feedback/ feature request to improve the user flow.

I think stating that Sweden's economy crashing despite not locking down is a bit misleading as it relates to policy choices and potential outcomes. The entire world locked down - a globally connected world - which one would imagine has an impact on Sweden's economy (it doesn't exist/trade in a vacuum). My point here is that, yes, people were scared and were self-preserving. But maybe this happened because the reaction function from governments and media around the world impacted this behavior. Perhaps if policy around the world had largely been more like Sweden's, we would have realized different behavior in Sweden (and the rest of the world for that matter). I'm not necessarily saying one way is wrong/right. Simply pointing out that Sweden's economy and society don't exist in a vacuum :)