The Winter of Discontent

Published on
November 1st, 2020
Duration
29 minutes

Julian Brigden — Markets, Monetary Policy, and Society: A Major Inflection Point


The Winter of Discontent

The Expert View ·
Featuring Raoul Pal

Published on: November 1st, 2020 • Duration: 29 minutes

Speaking as the founder of Global Macro Investor, Raoul Pal gives Real Vision members a timely update on how the increased spread of COVID-19 and the upcoming U.S. elections impact his outlook for the dollar, banks, bonds, gold, and bitcoin. Disagreeing with the dominant reflation narrative, Pal thinks that central banks will scramble to paper over the cracks left by governments. Pal therefore favors asymmetric bets on central bank balance sheet expansion, such as TLT, gold, and bitcoin, the most asymmetric bet of all. Filmed on Sunday, November 1, 2020. For more of Raoul's charts, click here: https://rvtv.io/380FJVD. Key learnings: Pal shows Real Vision members how to navigate the upcoming political and economic risks of both the U.S. elections and the renewed rise of COVID-19.

Comments

Transcript

  • GS
    GEORGE S.
    25 November 2020 @ 01:09
    Objectively Macro has failed to predict the path of markets since march....i have 0 faith any of this will pan out
  • RC
    Rich C.
    17 November 2020 @ 03:44
    Is it just me or is the market doing the exact opposite of what Raoul suggested?
  • DK
    Daniel K.
    16 November 2020 @ 20:25
    Is silver an option?
  • DK
    Daniel K.
    16 November 2020 @ 20:25
    Is silver an option?
  • DJ
    D J.
    8 November 2020 @ 17:32
    Awsome screensaver, where did you get that?
    • ML
      Mark L.
      13 November 2020 @ 00:28
      It is one of the screen saver options under system preferences on the Mac. Called Drift.
  • MH
    Mathias H.
    10 November 2020 @ 08:21
    How do you see this narrative change now we have a vaccine? :)
  • RM
    Rohin M.
    9 November 2020 @ 11:22
    Raoul, do you think the current move in the dollar and equities etc is still the initial false move on the election? Thanks
  • RK
    Robert K.
    8 November 2020 @ 19:53
    Thanks! Your analysis is always very helpful.
  • WS
    William S.
    7 November 2020 @ 22:00
    Virus is overplayed - over trumped - pun intended - there is an interplay between the advance of the virus but science and healthcare system to handle it is also advancing. so testing - yes and more of it - take the chinese lesson to heart. From there its a balance of keeping the economy open and minimizing the virus until the vaccines and other treatments become mainstream.
    • LS
      L S.
      8 November 2020 @ 15:28
      "The rise of Covid". No, the rise in cases. Again, it's not about the disease, it's about the propaganda and central control.
    • LS
      L S.
      8 November 2020 @ 16:18
      The last comment of the video shows how silly the social aspect of covid and the propaganda can even affect smart guys like RP. It's sorta like the earlier comments on "antibodies vanish" = more propaganda. We KNOW what coronaviruses are and what they do. We KNOW what the human body does with B cells and T cells. Yet all of a sudden COVID-19 fear porn changes this? It's ridiculous. You've received, if in the western world, countless vaccines and their boosters (usually at 10-20 year boosting intervals). Seriously, use your brain people, I'm a doctor but it has nothing to do with it - you'll need countless vaccines and boosters moving ahead just for this special deadly (read: it's not) virus? It is amazing how ridiculous the disinformation and expert political commentary has totally neutralized a normal person's ability to think due to fear.
  • NM
    Nico M.
    2 November 2020 @ 23:32
    Covid is not spreading, Covid tests are spreading. Most of the increase in cases can be explained with the false positive rates of these tests. Remember, if you have a car accident, go into hospital and then test positive for Covid, you still are a Covid hospitalisation. It is nonsense to say that no lockdown is the same as lockdowns. The hospitality industry is well alive in Sweden, and they didn't take as much of a hit as the others. I agree we are in trouble. They also don't live in a vacuum. Governments are factually going nuts. But we are in trouble with or without Covid, although the Covid mass hysteria is putting everything into a new gear.
    • DW
      Dean W.
      3 November 2020 @ 00:11
      Covid is definitely spreading. That's what it was engineered to do - spread. The infectivity of this virus (which is different than its lethality, if you can grok that) is hundreds of times greater than any similar natural virus. Virtually everyone on the planet is likely destined to have a personal encounter with this virus at some point in their life going forward. Thankfully there are therapeutics that are being developed which may be as good or better than having a vaccine and there are things you can take (zinc, Vit D, quercetin, etc) that can help when you have your own personal encounter with it.
    • NM
      Nico M.
      3 November 2020 @ 00:26
      @Dean This corona virus seems to be very similar to the other seasonal conrona viruses, in terms of how it spreads, what symptoms it creates and how many people die on it. That is why we need to test for it, because it would not be possible to recognise it any other way. That is also why so many people do not get symptoms. They are already immune because they had infections with the other corona viruses, similar enough for the immune system to recognise this new one.
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      5 November 2020 @ 05:49
      We don't care what you think about this topic.
    • LS
      L S.
      8 November 2020 @ 15:36
      Nico is right. Phillip doesn't care about reality, because he loves the doom and gloom.
  • LS
    L S.
    8 November 2020 @ 15:33
    You have to choose a side, either people who are part of the larger (boomer) generation don't spend and look inward, as you have said in prior videos, or they do. So which is it? Our parents staying at home should be relatively irrelevant as to the "cratering" of the economy by unnecessary lockdown measures. The real issue is that businesses, restaurants, and other retail - which would be supported and just fine if not intentionally locked out - are supported more largely by younger generations, as per your thesis. I do agree with the banking analysis though. What's more is that the really big waves or crises or crashes ... they don't come until late 2021-22.
  • TZ
    Tibor Z.
    3 November 2020 @ 18:42
    Raoul, is your view on gold the same as on the gold miners? Shouldn't we wait for turmoil and a sell-off?
    • SM
      Sascha M.
      7 November 2020 @ 20:28
      Hi Tibor, got the same question on my mind...
    • rm
      ryan m.
      8 November 2020 @ 03:57
      It just did sell off, you might have missed it
  • MB
    MATTHEW B.
    6 November 2020 @ 14:17
    What about QBTC? How does it compare with GBTC?
    • rm
      ryan m.
      8 November 2020 @ 03:55
      who cares ;-) ......easy to say, I'm up 100% with QBTC
  • CT
    Cherry T.
    8 November 2020 @ 00:19
    What is that beautiful chart besides Raoul`s left eye? I'd buy it.
  • KW
    Ken W.
    2 November 2020 @ 04:53
    Thanks Raoul, a thought provoking video. On Bitcoin: if it's not successful as a currency, it eventually goes to ~zero. If it is successful as a currency, the governments outlaw it and it goes to ~zero - e.g. accept bitcoin for a pizza and you go to jail. What am I missing?
    • sc
      sung c.
      2 November 2020 @ 05:06
      BTC doesn't have to be a currency, just as gold is not traded as a currency. BTC simply replaces gold going forward into the digital world.
    • RB
      Romain B.
      2 November 2020 @ 05:54
      Big blind call, me thinks!!! It's the store of value, stupid (no nastiness intended, just paraphrasing a famous pun)! Time will tell, I'd say the last 8 years have already spoken out quite loudly? How can anyone miss this? 20X in last 4 years, SEC a big fan, regulation everywhere, anyone paying attention knows it's not outlawable...It's illegal in China remember, yet they're by far the most active and biggest miners...
    • DS
      David S.
      2 November 2020 @ 06:46
      Hi Ken. Strongly suggest you read “The Bitcoin Standard”. It is a store of value and will never replace Visa or Mastercard. Why do governments need to ban it? All your bills will continue to be in your local currency and you will continue to get paid in your local currency. Bitcoin doesn’t change that. Bitcoin has nobody in charge of it and it is impossible to now kill.
    • KW
      Ken W.
      3 November 2020 @ 02:58
      Impossible to kill? Hardly. If you own 51% of the mining network, you own bitcoin. 65% of the mining network is in China, so the CCP can own it at any time (one tank would do it). Or the US fed prints up a measly few billion and buys enough compute power to take it over.
    • JC
      Jason C.
      8 November 2020 @ 00:08
      @Ken W. - I brought up this point in a previous video (I think the on with Mike Green talking to his guest about CYA?) and someone pointed out that the community would fork Bitcoin at that point. There are other ways to secure transactions that are more robust to 51% attacks. Also by the time a government decides to perform a 51% attack, this could be considered an act of war by some countries. Iran, for example, would not appreciate this, considering their CB has been buying Bitcoin already.
  • WS
    William S.
    7 November 2020 @ 22:05
    All of this ignores a fiscal response prior to the end of the yr - a crapshoot for sure - this will play once Trump concedes (which for him is to place blame - take it move on - no more reality tv in 3 mos) and it will become clear whether he and McConnell wants scorched earth. The Republican party now in a rock and a hard place - if they (the Republican elite and Biden's emissaries) push a deal will get done before year end.
  • WS
    William S.
    7 November 2020 @ 21:56
    OBE at this point - US on an exponential curve at the point of this note - so whatever Biden does(he won) is delayed for 3 mos at best...and Trump is playing golf while the xtry unravels until he gives in....
  • WS
    William S.
    7 November 2020 @ 21:54
    Sorry left out the key xtry - China - they are "growing" again
  • WS
    William S.
    7 November 2020 @ 21:53
    What about the "narrative" - GDP coming back - ok - as an export xtry who are they selling to?
  • SM
    Sascha M.
    7 November 2020 @ 20:26
    Thanks Raoul for this clear analysis ! With all that information around, i sometimes losse direction...
  • DM
    Don M.
    2 November 2020 @ 22:08
    I've still to hear a convincing argument why governments are going to allow themselves to lose control of their currencies by letting bitcoin essentially replace them. First I have to think their will be heightened regulation, possibly outlawing it, possibly only higher taxes... and eventually they'll come out with their own digital currency. Why would the U.S., for example, allow bitcoin to begin replacing the U.S. dollar? And before anyone says they can't stop it, that's BS. Of course they can stop it. They can revert it to a fringe use which then takes away all the growth.
    • GA
      Gerald A.
      2 November 2020 @ 22:37
      As the world moves to neofeudal oligarchy as it political and economic governance model, governments and nation states will be mostly theatre, if they aren't already. Bread and circuses, distractions for the debt serfs. Bitcoin will be the core of financial system for the neofeudal oligarchy along with gold. Central bank digital coins will be at the base of the financial system the oligarchy constructs for the debt serfs...most of the rest of us. Some animals are more equal than others. There will be one system for the neofeudal oligarchs and their collaborators, and another for everybody else.
    • DS
      David S.
      2 November 2020 @ 23:43
      Bitcoin won’t replace the USD. They have already lost control of their currency, people will still use it And get paid in it though. Why do they need to kill it off? Makes no sense. If people move to saving in BTC, they will just have to pay capital gains tax. The government wins. Individual governments can stop it. But once you own it, you own it. It can’t be taken off you. If your government bans it, buy it in a jurisdiction that allows it. Suggest you read the Bitcoin Standard.
    • EB
      Erik B.
      3 November 2020 @ 00:37
      I am trying to keep an open mind, but to me, Bitcoin is a call option on an improbable future. Government could smash it easily if it wants to and why wouldn't they if it was seen to undermine their ability to print money to finance government expenditure or indeed control the world's financial system - there's a lot on the line. It seems to me Bitcoin is a cumberson platform to build anything on, with it's ridiculous hash calculations and slow transaction speed. All the potentially great applications of distributed ledgers are probably better served by some other crypto currency. The more expensive it is, the greater the incentive to make a new crypto currency for any given project or to use as 'digital gold' and the greater the incentive for people to adopt that alternative cryptocurrency.
    • AP
      Alexander P.
      3 November 2020 @ 16:01
      @Erik I have similar reservations on the call optionality of Bitcoin. It really is cumbersome and expensive and therefore unlikely to be the platform for future DeFi growth. However, given its inefficincies, I have been surprised at its market dominance time and again. For now, it is the crypto to hodl and wrap into other instruments as needed. So for me it's more of a crypto-gold, and the only call optionality I see here is wider general adoption of crypto (which Raoul also mentions) but not BTC as a centerpiece for new technologies. Re banning Bitcoin, I have my doubts. Russia tried and failed to ban Telegram, for example, and that is surely way easier. Driving it to the fringe in a given country is centainly possible and not great for the ecosystem, but to really extinguish it would require a concerted action from regulators across the globe, which is unlikely to happen.
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      5 November 2020 @ 05:53
      There's been some content on the platform about the points you bring up. An important one is that BTC is not going to replace the US Dollar. BTC will be more like a reserve asset within the crypto space. The US central bank and the central bank of other countries will likely issue their own digital currencies. These they will control. Bitcoin is its own thing. Sure, maybe some smaller countries might adopt it, but not the OECD, China, Russia, or other larger economies. They will want to control their digital currencies.
    • LA
      Lawrence A.
      6 November 2020 @ 01:27
      Don, Governments won't "lost control" of their currency - they will adapt. By this logic, we would all be buying things with gold bars right now. If the dollar is translated to digital (already implemented by a multitude of unofficial stablecoins) it will work within the existing crypto framework. And I wouldn't fear government regulation. We all know how efficient they are at trying to stop technologies they don't understand. They've been trying to stop the tor protocol for decades now, how well is that going?
  • JL
    J L.
    5 November 2020 @ 14:30
    USD weakening again, by a lot, even with full "gridlock" scenario baked in (Biden White House vs McConnell Senate). EURUSD and GBPUSD strengthening against odds rather than weakening. Post-election US equity rally also one of the best in over a century. Food for thought.
  • JM
    Jake M.
    2 November 2020 @ 19:38
    Raoul mentioned it's a good time to enter gold because a lot of the speculative trades on gold have been flushed out. Is there any metric that can measure speculation on gold to support this?
    • GA
      Gerald A.
      2 November 2020 @ 21:58
      Commitment of Traders report issued weekly on Tuesday by the COMEX. It requires a bit of learning to learn to decipher the data.
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      5 November 2020 @ 06:01
      There are also some regulars in the blogosphere who blog about, or are interviewed about, the gold market and the CoT. They always discuss the CoT. It might only be like 20 seconds in a 12 minute interview if nothing special to discuss. Easy to miss. But, once you hear about it the first time, it'll click, and then you'll recognize the discussion and charts when referenced in other blogosphere posts/interviews.
  • CD
    Christopher D.
    2 November 2020 @ 22:04
    https://www.ft.com/content/08c4eb8c-442c-11e9-a965-23d669740bfb Martin Wolf in 2019: "Suppose, then, that our economies were to fall into a deep recession, yet still have near zero real interest rates and very low nominal rates, too. Suppose, too, that, inflation were somewhere between zero and two per cent. Then the response to a recession would require strongly negative short-term nominal interest rates, possibly as low as minus 5 per cent. That would, to put it mildly, create a wasps’ nest of technical, financial and political problems."
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      5 November 2020 @ 05:55
      Yes. I suspect that if there was a digital USD, the Fed could credit specific accounts, getting dollars out into the economy. MMT is here. Maybe some paper checks until they have the digital currency ready. Once they do, they'll credit people who spend it and not credit rich people who don't need it. We are going to be where Martin Wolf was talking about. Terrible, terrible position. An economic catastrophe.
  • LB
    Laura B.
    3 November 2020 @ 02:27
    This proves the world is run by secret societies. Do the math, even if you take there numbers. Divide the cases by 7 billion people. This is a big fat nothing burger promoted by the media and highly placed people in government to push for social change eroding freedom and civil liberties. The only thing that puts a smile on my face is knowing liberals are swallowing their tongue and buying guns. MOLAN LABE
    • LB
      Laura B.
      3 November 2020 @ 02:28
      Their. My fault on that one.
    • CY
      Chin Y.
      3 November 2020 @ 05:37
      I assume you mean Covid-19 being a nothing burger. Not sure about that. There are over 46 million cases in 7 ish months, and that's with most of the world socially distancing and trying to keep the virus from transmitting too quickly. If governments had done nothing and everyone carried on as usual, we would likely be in the hundreds of millions of cases by now globally. Or more likely, as Raoul said, at some point most people would choose self preservation and the economy has to slow down anyway.
    • NE
      Nathan E.
      3 November 2020 @ 10:14
      Please keep the Q'Anon crap off of this platform. This is a place for sober, reasoned analysis - not crackpot conspiracy theories from your Facebook friend circle.
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      5 November 2020 @ 05:47
      You are wasting our time and attention with this post here on RV. If you want to post a message like this, go to ZH.
  • AP
    Antonio P.
    2 November 2020 @ 12:30
    Very lucid analysis. It resonates a lot to me. I am not sure about his view on the US$, but living in Brazil I can confirm that the weakness of the Real (and the ruble and turkish lira) has been astounding and may signal problems in other currencies. I know I sould not pay attention to short-term market moves but I am baffled by US futures soaring today, bitcoin falling (contrary to gold) and the euro relative stable... What is going on?
    • MT
      Mike T.
      2 November 2020 @ 12:54
      suggest be careful in thinking US futures are soaring at the time of this post front month /es is at 3808 which equates to approx a move equivalent to 1.2 standard deviation. Also keep in mind those trading /es are predominantly either very short term (often only a few minutes) Scalpers or over night hedging of portfolio directional risk
    • AP
      Antonio P.
      2 November 2020 @ 13:55
      FT: Futures contracts that wager on the direction of the S&P 500 gained 1.5 per cent ahead of US stock market opening, while those betting on the largest stocks in the tech-focused Nasdaq rose 1.2 per cent.
    • BM
      Brook M.
      5 November 2020 @ 03:00
      Bitcoin can't go up every day. Just 22 out of the last 30. That's good enough for me.
  • CD
    Christopher D.
    4 November 2020 @ 12:27
    So, the 30y "large speculator" is the shortest on record https://www.barchart.com/futures/commitment-of-traders/technical-charts/ZB*0 ... but the same on the 10ys is flat or net long (to a smaller extent than the 30y in # contracts and given duration mismatch) https://www.barchart.com/futures/commitment-of-traders/technical-charts/ZN*0 https://www.barchart.com/futures/commitment-of-traders/technical-charts/TN*0 thus the 30y short is a mix of steepener and outright short. https://www.barchart.com/futures/commitment-of-traders/technical-charts/ZB*0 Recall PTJ in May 2020: The Yield Curve [is] historically a great defense against stagflation or a central bank intent on inflating. For our purposes we use long 2-year notes and short 30-year bonds Let's see how much juice in TLT, which is longer than 10y... Raoul has a rather good record with these trades!
  • JB
    James B.
    3 November 2020 @ 06:19
    With the world in so much debt to itself, the CBs will do everything to prevent interest rates rising which is starting to occur at the long end. That means any wholesale liquidation of Treasuries will be monetised by the Fed. But the USD is a massively crowded trade due to its reserve status and should the emergence of a truly international means of exchange emerge out of the crypto space (thereby removing the US's exorbitant privilege) it will leave current holders of US debt in offshore jurisdictions with potentially devastating FX losses. A perfect storm could be coming for the bond bears of the world.
    • JV
      Jerry V.
      3 November 2020 @ 11:44
      James, great question and I see the same potential - however rate of change is key here - have you assigned a time frame to your thesis??
    • JB
      James B.
      3 November 2020 @ 23:59
      Thanks for the reply Jerry. I think it is happening now, though we may have reached a short term correction area. The eye if the storm will be sometime in the NH Spring 2021, I reckon. But there are many years of adjustment ahead. The US bond market is extraordinarily large and will not necessarily fall imminently, but if we are on the cusp of a new financial domain, its role in the future is arguably diminished. The larger they are...
  • sd
    sabyasachi d.
    3 November 2020 @ 15:23
    Great talk Raoul. Do you have any thoughts on what a potential Brexit deal do to the EUR and GBP vis a vis USD?
  • DW
    David W.
    3 November 2020 @ 14:47
    Why is this not on the first page of the front page???
  • IB
    Ivan B.
    2 November 2020 @ 06:00
    Raoul if you express the bond trade via futures options, what levels would you use? Any chance you could update Pro members on this as an additional way to play?
    • CW
      Corey W.
      2 November 2020 @ 07:20
      Check out Raoul's last Flash Update (about a week ago) under Reports.
    • IB
      Ivan B.
      2 November 2020 @ 12:05
      Yup, for bonds he recommended TLT but I'm thinking about Bonds futures... it's a bit tricky there with pricing
    • JM
      John M.
      2 November 2020 @ 17:21
      If you have a yield in mind, you can use that to back out a target futures price using the cheapest-to-deliver bond for that contract and the conversion factor. https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/calculating-us-treasury-futures-conversion-factors.html for an intro
    • IB
      Ivan B.
      3 November 2020 @ 01:38
      Thanks John, but not quite. I just need to know what's 0 rate in 10Y bonds term... e.g. it's currently trading at 138-9.50 and this is 0.85% ish this sort of pricing is easily accessible via Bloomberg terminal.
    • jc
      jonathan c.
      3 November 2020 @ 11:32
      I'd like to know that too. I don't have access to a Bloomberg terminal.
  • DG
    David G.
    3 November 2020 @ 08:55
    Soooooooo, are all 17,000 or so of the open interest contracts in the March 2021 170 TLT calls yours?
  • MB
    MATTHEW B.
    2 November 2020 @ 20:34
    Btw, is Ethereum the future Bitcoin? Which one has a better relation of price to value?
    • JC
      Justin C.
      2 November 2020 @ 21:43
      Given that no one can tell you how many ETH have been created, I'm going to say Ethereum is not the future Bitcoin. But that doesn't mean it doesn't have its own future.
    • MP
      Marcela P.
      2 November 2020 @ 21:43
      Completely different
    • Sp
      Scott p.
      3 November 2020 @ 04:56
      Bitcoin and Etherum are very different things. There's a lot to explain here, and a strong idealogical divide between the two communities. Watch the video below featuring Raoul and Vijay Boyapati to understand the Bitcoin vs Ethereum thesis and what Raoul is talking about here. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Id8KIJIzXCs&t=2492s Crypto people tend to fall into two categories. Bitcoiners and Altcoiners. Bitcoiner's predominantly hold only Bitcoin, but Altcoiners also generally hold Bitcoin. Ethereum creator Vitalik Buterin holds over 300 Bitcoin. TLDR; Start with Bitcoin, Read The Bitcoin Standard, Have a look at https://bitcoin-resources.com/ . Buy it, Learn to secure it. Once you think you have a handle on what Bitcoin is then start exploring Altcoins like Ethereum. Altcoins are far riskier than bitcoin, and can outperform Bitcoin in bull markets, but historically do so by taking outsized risks, and produce inferior risk-adjusted returns. I'd also recommend this video where the IMO the best analyst in the space discusses investing in ETH vs BTC. https://unchainedpodcast.com/willy-woo-on-why-its-an-extremely-great-time-to-buy-bitcoin/
  • RP
    Ron P.
    3 November 2020 @ 03:27
    I agree with most of what you said here. I think you have under estimated the speed that stimulus will come in a divided government. I think the politicians will do stimulus because of the pain on Main Street and the impact on markets. I think the surprise will be that the dollar goes no where. Yes bitcoin and gold higher
  • DS
    David S.
    2 November 2020 @ 23:50
    Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but can’t help but think what a tough audience the few who disliked this video are. Thanks for the clarity Raoul.
    • TW
      Todd W.
      3 November 2020 @ 01:39
      People are so political about this virus theres nothing that can stop them once someone uses logic
  • RC
    Robert C.
    3 November 2020 @ 01:20
    RAUL WHAT IS THE BEST WAY TO BUY BITCOIN?
  • CP
    Carlos P.
    2 November 2020 @ 23:39
    Great insight Raoul, thanks!
  • MB
    MATTHEW B.
    2 November 2020 @ 20:25
    Great stuff, Raul. How do you buy Bitcoin? Via GBTC? What are the other (better?) options? Cheers
    • SP
      Simon P.
      2 November 2020 @ 21:15
      best option is to own them yourself. buy a hardware wallet, ledger or trezor ( buy from a vendor that has sold many/has reputation). Set this up when it arrives. Then go to a large reputable exchange in your country and buy $50 dollars worth and practice sending it to your hardware wallet and back to the exchange. once you can do this then buy your desired allocation and send it to your hardware wallet.
    • CD
      Christopher D.
      2 November 2020 @ 21:16
      try coinbase, kraken, gemini, ledger, uphold, bitstamp. for the more reputable exchanges.
    • MD
      Michael D.
      2 November 2020 @ 22:23
      Kraken works really, really well for me. Coinbase has an easy interface, but the fee structure is a bit much for me.
  • CS
    Christopher S.
    2 November 2020 @ 18:00
    If March is anything to go by Bitcoin hates a dollar screaming higher
    • JL
      J L.
      2 November 2020 @ 18:12
      If March is the benchmark, every risk asset in the world hates a dollar screaming higher
    • GA
      Gerald A.
      2 November 2020 @ 22:12
      Until it doesn't. Correlation does not necessarily mean causation. Correlations can end. New correlations can form. The US dollar hegenomy still exists, but we know it is ending. Will it end with a whimper, or with a bang? Or with a steady drip, drip, drip, drip, drip, drip...or with chaotic flucutations. It is hard to call the nature of the phase transition from a US dollar centric world to a peer-to-peer currency world where gold and bitcoin assert their dominance as units of value. If one knows the likely destination, don't complicate/compromise the trade by betting on the path to the destination. Just bet on the destination.
  • JI
    Janne I.
    2 November 2020 @ 21:28
    Why does dollar have this smile?
  • JL
    J L.
    2 November 2020 @ 17:56
    Here is a counter to the anti-reflation argument — and also to the negative rates argument. Food for thought. In terms of reflation trades, one could argue the market is discounting a period of years rather than months. Yes, there may be a fiscal desert between now and Jan 20. But why can't the market look four months forward, or even four years forward? Imagine the market discounting a Biden sweep across a four YEAR time horizon, rather than a four MONTH time horizon. Imagine the market attempting to DCF $10 trillion worth of fiscal between now and 2024. Now imagine the short-term pain of Q42020 increasing the size of the fiscal on the back-end. One could argue that everything you are saying about the virus is right, and yet, one could say the increased pain of Q42020 will cause permanent real economy damage which increases the net size of the fiscal response running multiple years out, which in turn means the fiscal impulse reverberates even more. Then, too, remember this: All of the big corporate players are going to survive. Why? Because the Fed has their back. The big banks will all survive too. Why? Because the Fed has their back. In the Q42020 Covid disaster scenario, it is the little guy — the mom and pop retailers — who get destroyed. But what does that do for the big corporate players, who are sheltered by credit lines from the Fed? It increases their long range profits by killing off the competition from small and medium-size enterprises! If Covid comes in and crushes everyone small in Q4, the wasteland left behind will be something for McDonalds and Target and Amazon to colonize. Wall Street will love that. Next up, on the U.S. and negative rates. Why would the U.S. need to embrace negative rates if the government can just spend trillions instead? Negative rates in Europe are a function of straitjacketed fiscal response reined in by the Bundesbank. But in a Biden admnistration backed by a Dem senate, you have no straitjacket. You have the ability to spend like there is no tomorrow, because the U.S. has the balance sheet strength to support it, and the "exorbitant privilege" of a world reserve currency that can absorb massive spending besides. Also: With all this fear of the dollar getting too strong, why wouldn't the Biden administration open the fiscal floodgates, deliberately trash the dollar, and usher in an American manufacturing renaissance through a lowered cost of exports? If the US dollar has such an impulse toward strength, why not use that to fiscalize the heck out of everything, and make the farmers and manufacturers happy by making US goods dirt cheap around the world? Given the above, negative rates (which don't work anyway) could be avoided by the U.S. via simply spending so much freaking money they create inflation almost at will, which the U.S. is uniquely positioned to do with the right political regime (in part because there ain't no currency like the world's reserve currency). My final counter to your argument: Price action. Look at what the bank ETFs (KBE and KRE) are doing today. They are surging again. And look how gold and silver miners have been holding up in a relatively decent way. If we were heading for dollargeddon again, GDX and SIL and gold and silver and copper would all be tanking. They aren't. Maybe you are right and all kinds of prices are wrong. But maybe, just maybe, the market is looking at discounting four YEARS of U.S. fiscal ahead, rather than just four months, and also discounting the fact that no matter how bad Covid gets, the big equity players and the big banks survive, and that means both will be around to roll around in profits provided by government largesse as Biden adopts a pro-US export campaign by selling the snot out of the dollar organically vai fiscal bonanza plus backdoor blue chip jubilee (maybe Vice President Harris gets her wish of $2,000 per month per family, which in turn goes to Amazon and Disney and WalMart and Chipotle and…). The anti-reflation narrative as presented is quite plausible. The trouble is, a longer duration narrative is equally plausible, and the longer-dated one isn't at odds with price across a bunch of instruments! Added note: I have some bullish dollar positions on, but also some reflation positions too, and a very large Bitcoin position. So I'm not a hardcore believer in any camp, just playing devil's advocate here… and sticking with the guardrails of price action in terms of where to place my chips...
    • FL
      Fabrizio L.
      2 November 2020 @ 20:23
      JL why not look 50 years forward? I have a great asset to sell you: just 5 years down the line, just 35 times earnings, oh... sorry it has no earnings but it will, I promise, its audited by the same guys that audited wirecard, one of the big ones!
    • JL
      J L.
      2 November 2020 @ 21:13
      @Fabrizio -- because 50 years would be silly, but multiple years is obviously not. Equity valuations are based on a discounted stream of future cash flows that stretch for many years into the future. This in fact seems so obvious, the odd thing would be to assume the market is only looking months out rather than years. Especially when one considers that, on a five-year time horizon, a sovereign wealth fund would almost certainly rather be sitting on, say, a warehouse full of base metals than a portfolio of dollar-denominated treasury bonds.
  • RC
    Ron C.
    2 November 2020 @ 21:12
    “Don’t bring your biases to the party, bring your analysis”. And any sane analysis right now says play the probabilities as there are no certainties - except uncertainty!
  • TS
    Theodoros S.
    2 November 2020 @ 20:51
    I think Raul said by mistake that the Turkish Lira hit all-time highs. I think he meant that it hit all time lows!
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      2 November 2020 @ 21:05
      $/TRY hit all time highs...
  • DP
    Duane P.
    2 November 2020 @ 19:40
    I'd really like to see an analysis of the underlying economic data on the deflation versus inflation narrative. Having the data backup the narrative would be extremely reassuring. There's a lot of varying factors pushing in both directions and it doesn't seem clear yet which one wins out.
  • MG
    Miguel G.
    2 November 2020 @ 17:39
    Raoul or anyone else than may be able to help, I just bought some bitcoing and ethereum in my tradestation account. What is the safest place app/website people are using to store their coins so they dont have to worry about being hacked?
    • JM
      John M.
      2 November 2020 @ 18:17
      Best practice is generally to hold your own private keys in a hardware wallet offline (aka cold storage). Can even do multi-signature between multiple devices (ie, you need both devices to sign a transaction) for even more security. Popular examples: Ledger, ColdCard, Trezor, Cobo Vault
    • MG
      Miguel G.
      2 November 2020 @ 19:34
      Thanks for the help John.
  • DK
    Dennis K.
    2 November 2020 @ 18:48
    Ok
  • EB
    Eric B.
    2 November 2020 @ 02:12
    $GLD a reasonable choice for gold accumulation?
    • GA
      Gerald A.
      2 November 2020 @ 02:18
      In terms of exchange listed gold product, I prefer PHYS, Sprott Physical Gold. Allocated gold with the Royal Canadian Mint as custodian. It is a pseudo (they try to manage the premium/discount) closed end fund, rather than an ETF. The best option is always physical gold in a private non-bank vault.
    • MK
      Michael K.
      2 November 2020 @ 02:30
      Yes, very very very reasonable. It's a great product. I'm all into prepping, bitcoin, libertarian stuff, austrian economics, etc. I love physical gold, I love gold mining stocks, I love getting paranoid about financial system insolvency. So if you want, stick a 20 pack of american eagles in a safe place (lock box, baby crib, bottom of a lake), but put the rest in GLD or IAU. CEF is a favorite bc its got some silver too. Keep it simple.
    • MB
      Michael B.
      2 November 2020 @ 12:12
      Remember that the Sprott products PHYS and CEF qualify for LTCG when sold if you handle your reporting correctly. That is very huge and underappreciated
    • EB
      Eric B.
      2 November 2020 @ 17:59
      Thank you to all that responded. I am watching all of the mentioned funds. I went with PHYS for the meantime. This is a long term hold in an IRA. Does anyone even have American Eagles in stock for purchase?
  • cv
    carlo v.
    2 November 2020 @ 17:39
    Raoul is always the Boss! thanks for this
  • OT
    Omar T.
    2 November 2020 @ 13:39
    The problem is Raoul and Julian's views are opposite each other
    • OT
      Omar T.
      2 November 2020 @ 13:43
      Example dollar and tlt
    • SM
      Sergio M.
      2 November 2020 @ 15:03
      Whatever do we do then!? Their timing and timeframe may be different.
    • nw
      nicholas w.
      2 November 2020 @ 15:30
      ~They have different areas of expertise/experience though, so they will see the World trough different lenses.
    • GF
      Gordon F.
      2 November 2020 @ 16:35
      As my father-in-law told me before I married his best daughter (and numerous times after), "IF TWO PEOPLE ALWAYS AGREE ON EVERYTHING, ONE OF THEM IS NOT NECESSARY!"
    • SC
      Sejong C.
      2 November 2020 @ 17:34
      Is that not a good thing? A repetition of the same thesis seems of little help.
  • SC
    Sejong C.
    2 November 2020 @ 17:23
    You finally called it R-Naught! : ) I don't know why, but that makes me happy. Previous videos' had comments mentioning that, and I thought you did not care to update your knowledge. That was a bit worrisome, as I am an avid follower of your outlook on the economy. I want my visionaries to be open to new things, which I am sure you are.
  • TC
    Timothy C.
    2 November 2020 @ 16:27
    One curious situation with 401Ks. They have limited choices and one glaring choice, most if not all lack is cash and precious metals. They essentially force participants into stock or bond funds. So the millennial can move their money around (or reduce contributions), but they can't take it out of the market.
    • JM
      John M.
      2 November 2020 @ 17:13
      Strictly cash maybe not, but most 401k plans have one or more money market fund options (typically treasury and prime). You can absolutely go to complete cash equivalents.
  • SS
    Stephen S.
    2 November 2020 @ 16:13
    Thanks Raoul, Good stuff.
  • KA
    Kelly A.
    2 November 2020 @ 16:04
    Provocative and exactly what we look to Raoul for. Thank you! Nevertheless, there are some BIG assumptions --and I would love to have Raoul [and other members, too!] comment on these: 1. WHAT IF life just goes on?... and USA states do NOT do lockdowns? [Most people are fed up with the covid restrictions to the point that policing them would be virtually impossible.] 2. WHAT IF, for the most part, hospitals can handle the increased number of covid cases? ...Life and economy just go on? 3. WHAT IF: Republicans panic from a Blue Wave, and decide perhaps they should pass a stimulus bill, within a couple weeks of the election?... Life and the economy go on? I can see how gold could benefit. Do equities soar again? 4. WHAT IF boomers actually are not removing as much money from equities as has been predicted? Similarly, what if millennials keep investing? Thanking you in advance.
  • PD
    Peter D.
    2 November 2020 @ 09:32
    1. Don't bring your biases (note to Austrians) to the party. Invest based on the realities, as they exist today. 2. Governments are all in on COVID panic. So further repression/lockdown moves are coming However even if that did not happen, people, particularly boomers are locking themselves down. Result: significant economic weakness coming. 3. Even if Biden wins, there is no major stimulus (we are in a lame duck situation) until early 2021. 4. USD (due to short squeeze caused by foreign private sector USD denominated debt) looks good. 5. US long rates heading negative. So bonds look good. 6. Europe in deep trouble, banks could get nationalized. Massive monetization coming. 7. Gold and BTC look good. But Raoul remains a bit short/underweight, in part because there could be buying opportunities in ST deflationary events.
    • MB
      Michael B.
      2 November 2020 @ 11:57
      What leads you to believe that Raoul is underweight gold and BTC?
    • JS
      Justin S.
      2 November 2020 @ 14:31
      "Nobody is long enough Bitcoin, even me" - 11 minutes from the end, not sure he says it as directly about Gold.
  • YD
    Yusuf D.
    2 November 2020 @ 06:48
    Thanks Raoul. Great piece. Just to clarify with the antibodies, its not necessarily a bad thing when we loose anti bodies. The body still remembers the virus and the chance of severe reinfection drops significantly. The antibodies are the highest at the time of infection and immediately after.
    • AR
      Alexander R.
      2 November 2020 @ 13:59
      Just for historical anecdote read about Elie Metchnikoff Nobel prize And Louis Paster Nobel prize Both turned to be right and both strongly disagree and discarded each other view The antinbodes going away might not mean much, as response can be mostly cellular and is not measured by antibodies
  • MW
    Mike W.
    2 November 2020 @ 13:56
    Wow ... fantastic analysis. Feel very lucky indeed to have discovered Real Vision in the last month !
  • OS
    Omar S.
    2 November 2020 @ 13:28
    Great insight - thanks Raoul
  • RY
    Roy Y.
    2 November 2020 @ 12:42
    Brilliant analysis.
  • AP
    Antonio P.
    2 November 2020 @ 12:41
    Another issue that Raoul could comment one of these days. I do not know if I am seing too much but while oil is tanking, oil stocks like Exxon, Shell, Chevron, etc etc are not behaving that badly... Are they possibly bottoming finally?
  • SU
    Shakeel U.
    2 November 2020 @ 09:02
    There's alot of similaralities between Bitcoin and the Tulip bubble.
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      2 November 2020 @ 12:34
      Yeah yeah, people said that throughout 2018, post 2017 bubble burst (not to mention throughout 2017 from Q2 onwards). Look at both where and how it's trading now...
  • SK
    Sergejs K.
    2 November 2020 @ 12:12
    Again Strong Dollar case...
  • Qz
    Qiongfei z.
    2 November 2020 @ 10:57
    Thanks real vision, my portfolio increase due to the bitcoin, gold and gold miner positions. I recently sold half and moved to the TLT call option, really like this bet.
  • PJ
    Peter J.
    2 November 2020 @ 10:34
    Simple, Clear , Excellent
  • sm
    sergio m.
    2 November 2020 @ 10:02
    This video is the real digital gold
  • JH
    Jason H.
    2 November 2020 @ 09:27
    Very insightful Raoul :)
  • KS
    Kim S.
    2 November 2020 @ 08:40
    Brilliant update thanks!
  • BA
    Bob A.
    2 November 2020 @ 08:33
    Thanks for giving us your Sunday night. It is very much appreciated.
  • VK
    Vaclav K.
    2 November 2020 @ 07:48
    Companies will have to liquidate their assets to survive. That is why I am also buying LQDT, KAR, and other auction and liquidity services.
  • RR
    Raj R.
    2 November 2020 @ 07:25
    Fantastic!
  • AV
    Alex V.
    2 November 2020 @ 06:55
    "Russian mining company Polyus has claimed that its undeveloped Sukhoi Log gold deposit in Siberia is the biggest in the world, with proven reserves of 40 million ounces." I will keep buying BTC!!!
  • KG
    Kei G.
    2 November 2020 @ 06:40
    Clear, erudite, and timely, per usual. Thanks Raoul and team.
  • BT
    Billy T.
    2 November 2020 @ 06:36
    Why is contested election = dollar positive? Doesn’t political instability = dollar lower? Bush v Gore in 2000 USD fell when it was contested. Thx for the video!
  • AM
    Alexander M.
    2 November 2020 @ 06:01
    Typically brilliant. Thank you.
  • WC
    Wilson C.
    2 November 2020 @ 05:50
    Thanks Raoul. very sobering observations. For a glimpse of sunshine (?), look at asia (Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, Korea, Australia, even China - read locally there were 600M+ travellers during October Golden Week). Here in HK, we're pretty much back to pre-covid re: movement, shops/restaurants open (max 6 seatings), bars, basketball courts, etc. Life is pretty good/normal, but even at that lots of empty retail shops in causeway bay, tsim sha tsui, wan chai as people consumption behaviour changed. We're hitting insolvency phase re: large corps with Cathay Pacific 1st to announce mass layoffs, worse than SARS and we expect it will get worse till Feb 2021/Chinese New Year where year end bonuses may be given out with pink slips next year. And this is with covid under control in the city.
  • dl
    donald l.
    2 November 2020 @ 05:45
    Great macro overview, Raoul. I would add one aspect. The stock mkt just had a stealth 3 Sigma drop last week. That is most unusual and never happens unless something serious is at play 'under the hood'. It is my firm understanding given all the evidence that the global/US economy is experiencing an existential crisis and is on life support. If this is correct, in order to survive for a while longer, it requires moooore stimulus, which is not to be forthcoming without a major crisis that forces it. It appears to me that the 3 Sigma event is a warning of what that crisis will be. A stock mkt crash would do the trick faster than much else, and is enough of a systemic threat to provide the required result. I expect that to occur this week. Such a perfect set up. A cluster f**k election followed immediately by an FOMC meeting. The election as cover to really focus the minds at the FOMC. Any move below SPX 3100 (200 MA) this week and there be dragons. Alastair McLeod of Goldmoney says hyper inflation has begun with the definition that CB's have lost control of printing. I believe that this election will trigger a shift to a much faster crisis pace. Not long to find out. Great work.
  • EC
    Edward C.
    2 November 2020 @ 04:56
    Thanks Raoul, really appreciate you and the team getting this out on a sunday.
  • MH
    Muddshir H.
    2 November 2020 @ 04:49
    Why no comments
  • DD
    Darrell D.
    2 November 2020 @ 03:47
    As an engineer, I will give three cheers to "analyzing the data". The data doesn't care what you think, and emotions are not tools of cognition. Well done Raoul. Thank you for the rational views.
    • MS
      Maxwell S.
      2 November 2020 @ 03:55
      It’s very refreshing.
    • MD
      Matt D.
      2 November 2020 @ 04:03
      Of course, you would know better than most that data can say anything you need it to. Not disagreeing with you, yet there are still endless debates about which data and what means what, and comparing like with like. I think there is data that compares it to the flu, that says 99% survival rate, that questions the absence of the conventional flu etc etc. All the models are wrong for a start. Well the models that have been used. Surely this time we can use the data to create accurate models, as we should have a good idea about the virus now... That aside, I agree with Raoul that people will react according to their fears. My state just had an election, and it was won due to that - fear campaign. Not a hope or new start or re-growth story. A fear of what is now the known. Implying, to me, people are still acting irrationally.
    • DD
      Darrell D.
      2 November 2020 @ 04:31
      Matt D., well said and good observation. Models are not data, they are projections based on 1.) data and 2.) assumptions. A flaw in either (or both) can give horrible results. There is a famous saying about models, "all models are wrong, some are useful." As you point out, fear is what many of people are dealing in right now, both on the buy and sell side. Fear (and anger) are the soil that grows irrationally. We should stop falling for them... For anti-virus software for your mind, google "logical fallacies". As I tell all of my clients and coworkers, I trust God, everyone else needs to bring data.
  • JM
    John M.
    2 November 2020 @ 04:20
    Fantastic summary. Really appreciate the big picture view.
  • JA
    Junaid A.
    2 November 2020 @ 04:05
    Simply the best thinker we have. Thank you for doing this on a Sunday evening.
  • MD
    Matt D.
    2 November 2020 @ 03:58
    Thanks Raoul. Here in Australia we have the RBA and Melbourne Cup tomorrow on top of the US elections - triple whammy. One involves alcohol, so you can guess where the fun is at for most "traders". This time everything is real I guess. Thanks for the heads up on how you are seeing things. Cheers.
  • NI
    Nate I.
    2 November 2020 @ 03:07
    Probably right in the short run. For the longer run, I think Louis-Vincent Gave will be right about the USD. Regardless, all roads lead to gold.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      2 November 2020 @ 03:22
      I think there is 12 to 24 months left of the dollar bull market.
  • AT
    ALAN T.
    2 November 2020 @ 03:17
    Thank you Raoul,.
  • JC
    John C.
    2 November 2020 @ 03:10
    Incredible video. THANK YOU!
  • GG
    Gary G.
    2 November 2020 @ 02:28
    Will deflation not push the real rates higher as nominals are pinned down? How will that be good for gold?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      2 November 2020 @ 03:06
      Because they have to do more printing..
  • RC
    Rafael C.
    2 November 2020 @ 03:01
    Very considerate of you to prepare this on a Sunday. Extremely useful. News from Europe and particularly Spain are really worrying: food banks are collapsing, riots in major cities this weekend... Let's see how everything plays out in the coming weeks.
  • LT
    Lisa T.
    2 November 2020 @ 02:39
    I find the clear non political logical thinking very refreshing. These updates are really helpful as I was just outlining my thoughts for the week. Thanks for the insight.
  • MR
    Michael R.
    2 November 2020 @ 02:27
    Thank you Raoul!
  • TC
    Timothy C.
    2 November 2020 @ 02:10
    I love Raoul's commentary and deep thinking. Seriously one of the great minds in macro analysis.
  • JN
    Jared N.
    2 November 2020 @ 02:01
    It would be helpful if the link for slides was clickable on iOS. Now I have to go to the website... thanks for reading the feedback/ feature request to improve the user flow.
  • CC
    Connor C.
    2 November 2020 @ 01:39
    I think stating that Sweden's economy crashing despite not locking down is a bit misleading as it relates to policy choices and potential outcomes. The entire world locked down - a globally connected world - which one would imagine has an impact on Sweden's economy (it doesn't exist/trade in a vacuum). My point here is that, yes, people were scared and were self-preserving. But maybe this happened because the reaction function from governments and media around the world impacted this behavior. Perhaps if policy around the world had largely been more like Sweden's, we would have realized different behavior in Sweden (and the rest of the world for that matter). I'm not necessarily saying one way is wrong/right. Simply pointing out that Sweden's economy and society don't exist in a vacuum :)
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      2 November 2020 @ 01:46
      Yes, nothing exists in a vacuum....its all interconnected.