Trading Tactically at Turning Points

Published on
May 23rd, 2018
27 minutes

Emerging Markets: From Vulnerability to Opportunity

Trading Tactically at Turning Points

The Expert View ·
Featuring Juliette Declercq

Published on: May 23rd, 2018 • Duration: 27 minutes

Through 2017, Juliette Declercq of JDI Research was a leading advocate of U.S. dollar weakness and the above-consensus European growth. But she has recently spotted clear indications that the global economy has reached a turning point, and has shifted her outlook accordingly. Juliette outlines that change and highlights the tactical trades to employ during this transitional phase for markets. Filmed on May 16, 2018 in London.


  • DW
    Dave W.
    30 May 2018 @ 13:23
    Can anyone point me to a good resource on identifying the phases of the business cycle? She used the exact same terminology as Alex Gurevich, i.e. late cycle, inflation scare regime. It seemed like they were talking about the same cycle but came to different conclusions.
    • DC
      Dan C.
      9 June 2018 @ 22:46
      Check out Pring. He wrote a 2006 book that is excellent called Active Asset Allocation. Also check out the cycle works of Shumpter etc.
    • AF
      Andre F.
      9 September 2018 @ 15:17
      Dan, you said to check out Joseph Schumpeter, etc. When you say "etc", whom are the others that you say should also be looked at? Would this be Mises and Minsky and some others? When I see Schumpeter come up in something I might be reading, he is always mentioned in glowing terms and without peers.
  • JL
    Jinny L.
    23 May 2018 @ 23:05
    Curious to know if most macro investors are in the late cycle band wagon. Is this already a crowded trade?
    • DC
      Dan C.
      9 June 2018 @ 22:52
      Plenty of late cycle indicators. I think we are stage 5 of a 6 stage process. If commodities continue to catch a bid along with the indices being led by a concentrated group of high PE stocks (FANGS) whilst other sectors fall away, then we are late cycle. It doesn’t mean we crash. Some have reasoned that rather than one big systemic event, we might experience a ‘rolling’ recession through industry sectors. We have seen such events in energy and retail already. The simple thing to do is stay Long stocks. You will only be wrong once each time at the top or the market bottom (if shorting a downtrend). Stay long until ISM breaks below 50. Better backtested returns than using a 200 dma!
  • DC
    Dan C.
    9 June 2018 @ 22:42
    Great work as ever Juliette. Loving your work. I like the approach and that you are not nailed down to certainties or wedded to old market maxims or ideas. Finance evolves therefore stay nimble and watch for late cycle signs. Personally, I like ISM below 50 and US Civilian un Employment crossing above its 12m moving average. Give you a 3m plus signal of recession. Let’s also not forget that simplistically, rate hikes by the Fed are price increases in the cost of money. Yield up, price down just like any fixed income instrument. There will be no dollar shortage either like Raoul etc postulate. Under MMT, demand for Dollars is met with instant supply. Hiking and QT are inflationary so as long as central banks keep hiking then expect inflation rates to increase.
  • DV
    Dimitri V.
    25 May 2018 @ 18:36
    Anyone else catch her wry smile she she said "Trump's fiscal package"? Love her brain, one of the best interviews posted yet and it's also really nice to see more female finance professionals on RealVision! highly recommend her JDI Research service, great job all around!
    • JD
      Juliette D. | Contributor
      4 June 2018 @ 20:38
      Thank you for your kind comments. Like that you love my brain ;) and I have been working tirelessly to promote female finance professionals ... hence why I could not refuse a RV interview. Thanks again.
  • FB
    Floyd B.
    29 May 2018 @ 20:48
    Liked her philosophy of combining a fundamental view with the charts to determine a trade,useful and practical.Not sure I agree with the view that the EU is not leveraged and I think she is a bit optimistic on how the Italy situation works out. Being more selective in EM makes a lot of sense and probably selectivity is a good manta for 2018-2019.
  • FH
    Franz-Xaver H.
    28 May 2018 @ 20:03
    I did not understand everything, but think her presentation was very good and clear. Have to read the transcript.
  • AF
    Andrew F.
    28 May 2018 @ 17:07
    Really deep insight, what to look for when things turn and why. Thanks RV and Juliette.
  • SP
    Steve P.
    27 May 2018 @ 22:44
    her call, is that real yields go higher. Isn't this true by definition as fed hikes?
  • SP
    Steve P.
    27 May 2018 @ 22:41
    what are the rates she mentions that affect the real economy?
  • JM
    Jay M.
    27 May 2018 @ 09:12
    Top notch! Thank you RV for bringing Juliette on - massive value added! Thank you Juliette for sharing your views! Will check out your Website - really like your approach, since you trade your views, as well. That makes a huge difference to me, since my opinion is that once you have a real position, you get a real feel for the markets you are in.
  • ah
    ahmed h.
    26 May 2018 @ 14:01
    she s brilliant..def bring her her trade focused appraoch
  • WE
    William E.
    23 May 2018 @ 10:55
    Ignore Juliette at your portfolio's risk. She loves trading and is wicked good. Macro Voices has had her on couple of time in past 6 months or so... most recently last week. Recommend you follow her on Twitter. Thanks Juliette.
    • PU
      Peter U.
      23 May 2018 @ 15:03
      what is her twitter address?
    • tW
      tgwtom W.
      23 May 2018 @ 21:21
      Peter it is @JulietteJDI
    • RS
      Ronan S.
      26 May 2018 @ 09:35
      Hi William, just a quick question regarding opposing views of two recent macro voices and RV guests: Julian Brigden and JD. if you haven't seen Julian's recent appearance on macro voices that no problem but he believes the exact opposite of JD with regards capital flows. he believes that there will be a huge jump on the upside for the dollar as Americans begin to take there unhedged money out of Europe and back to the US causing a potentially big problem in a risk off environment. JD believes the opposite due to the carry trade of the US as explained in the vid above. I'm finding it hard to find what's reality within these two ideas. if yourself or anyone has any white papers or content that could point me into a certain direction I would appreciate it! thanks!
  • TE
    Tito E.
    25 May 2018 @ 09:38
    "Better a good chart than 10 page waffle" - true words everytime. Great presentation Juliette.
  • WS
    William S.
    25 May 2018 @ 01:38
    Stellar..bring her back on AIF.
  • GB
    Grant B.
    24 May 2018 @ 10:11
    High value add. Really appreciate her insights. More like this. Thank you.
  • TT
    Trenton T.
    24 May 2018 @ 03:47
    Magnifique. A visible interviewer would only slow the torrent of data.
  • JW
    James W.
    24 May 2018 @ 02:20
    Exemplary content. Please let us have more like this.
  • SP
    Steve P.
    24 May 2018 @ 01:32
    Thnx Juliette for an excellent presentation. To our mate Milton - the short explanations flashed on screen for viewers not familiar with some of the financial jargon used was superb. Instead of having to stop the vid., chase up an explanation via other sources then come back to the vid (and often losing the thread somewhat), the note keeps the whole narrative evolving. Invaluable !
  • VV
    Vanessa V.
    23 May 2018 @ 23:51
    Absolutely love Juliette's thought process and her ability to link her macro view to tactical trading opportunities. Clear, concise and thoughtful analysis. It has been a privilege to have access to her - please make her a regular guest. Thank you RV and Juliette.
  • DS
    David S.
    23 May 2018 @ 23:39
    Is financial stability a stable economy and monetary aggregate or an ever increasing stock market? Wall Street and Main Street are often at odds. I hope the financial stability refers to Main Street. DLS
  • NI
    Nate I.
    23 May 2018 @ 23:32
    Juliette is awesome, however I don't agree with her US tight labor narrative. US labor participation is at a 40 year low. The average US employee hasn't had a raise in real terms (or maybe at all) in years and most fear more layoffs. If US employers ever stop the buybacks, layoffs, outsourcing and other financial machinations and start investing in people again, there will be no shortage of applicants. Sure, we can continue to proclaim there is a shortage of [slave] labor (well, duh), but that's all it is and the declining US standard of living strongly supports this.
  • RM
    Robert M.
    23 May 2018 @ 23:29
    From the opinions of a range of experts recently, I don't see China growth bottoming soon. And reliance on the OECD CLI for China is impossible given it is revised on every issue. Secondly, I don't see DXY falling on a global growth cycle slowdown given ROW has a higher beta to US growth ie: ROW slows faster than US in downturns (and VV).
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    23 May 2018 @ 22:43
    ...but that could prove a risky proposition.
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    23 May 2018 @ 22:40 effect, what doesn’t show up this month may show up next month or the month after. The only issue I see with her approach is that tactical traders think they can unwind positions in time — but g
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    23 May 2018 @ 22:38
    Excellent presentation and commentary — her approach seems very wise to me. The credit impulse chart was very interesting, but the rates of change when you look at past events were so high that, in ef
  • DS
    David S.
    23 May 2018 @ 21:35
    Excellent presentation. The elephant in the room for me is the total world debt, specially US debt. Like the Nixon era, Congress is doing everything in its power to make the economy as robust as possible for the next election. Most of the benefits of the tax cuts and federal budget spending occur in the 2018. The trillions of dollars of deficit spending added to the already monstrous debt will become important at some point. I would like to hear Ms. Declercq analysis of possible outcomes. At some point the market will dictate interest rates irrespective of CB actions around the world. DLS
  • tW
    tgwtom W.
    23 May 2018 @ 21:24
    Late cycle like Alex Gurevich
  • HO
    H2 O.
    23 May 2018 @ 21:09
    Big fan of her analytical process, and listening to her analysis always stimulates new ideas. Thanks RV.
  • CD
    Cheryl D.
    23 May 2018 @ 21:07
    Big Juliette Declercq fan!!!!!!!
  • DI
    Deoraz I.
    23 May 2018 @ 19:08
    She has gut and convictions backed by real data.
  • KK
    Kevin K.
    23 May 2018 @ 12:28
    I recall that the charts from the video used to be added to the transcripts as well, however, don't seem to see this anymore. Would be good to bring this back as I have found myself having to switch between the transcript and the video every time a chart was shown.
    • RH
      Roger H. | Real Vision
      23 May 2018 @ 15:09
      Thanks Kevin and good point. We've now added the charts to the transcript
    • M.
      Milton .. | Founder
      23 May 2018 @ 15:34
      Thanks Kevin and good point. We've now added the charts to the transcript
    • KK
      Kevin K.
      23 May 2018 @ 18:26
      Great. Thanks for addressing this so quickly.
  • AH
    Andrew H.
    23 May 2018 @ 17:59
    some amazing content. Second person to reference the flow of funds out of the US in the next "year". I think this may be one of the key macro events in the near term, and allow for some of the best (macro) trade set ups in a while.
  • KS
    Karen S.
    23 May 2018 @ 10:54
    • rr
      rlw r.
      23 May 2018 @ 15:48
      my exact sentiment, Juliette rocks - she’s always value add
    • LA
      Linda A.
      23 May 2018 @ 17:46
      Juliette is a Rocktress / Stocktress! Love your charts & narrative. If the ECB stops the printing press wouldn't their rates shoot up & cause havoc to their economy?
  • PB
    Pieter B.
    23 May 2018 @ 17:12
    Thank you very much Juliette!
  • AS
    Alex S.
    23 May 2018 @ 12:16
    really enjoyed listening to her thoughts here
  • SR
    Steve R.
    23 May 2018 @ 11:05
    Have to admit I'm a big JD fan, I very much like her thought process, and is more often right than not. Echo Williams E's points below - follower her on Twitter and from time to time on MacroVoices podcast. I would definitely like to see more from Juliette in the future.