Unmasking SuperMugatu — How the Pros Find Edge

Published on
February 25th, 2020
Duration
48 minutes

Agricultural Commodities and the Impending Solar Cycle Shock


Unmasking SuperMugatu — How the Pros Find Edge

The Expert View ·
Featuring Daniel McMurtrie

Published on: February 25th, 2020 • Duration: 48 minutes

Dan McMurtrie, founder of Tyro Capital Management (also known as SuperMugatu on Twitter), joins Real Vision to discuss his analytical research into the off-the-beaten path sub-sectors of the global economy that he believes will provide asymmetric returns. He talks about the evolution of financial markets and how he takes advantage of inefficiencies in financial markets and social trends to find edge in a world sparse with alpha generating opportunities. He reveals his philosophy on asset allocation – balancing potential non-linear risks with opportunity capitalization. McMurtrie also shares a few of his favorite value plays and explains the reasoning behind his theses. Filmed on February 20, 2020 in New York.

Comments

Transcript

  • JC
    Jack C.
    2 May 2020 @ 12:02
    Really enjoyed this video. Dan is definitely an impressive rising talent worth paying attention to. He has a well rounded investment process, tracks relevant data, pays attention to prevailing thesis and looks for variant perception. Pls have him back in future.
  • MH
    Michael H.
    17 March 2020 @ 15:00
    Please bring Dan back. I really enjoyed this interview. Focused, and you can tell he has down his homework. well done!
  • DR
    Daniel R.
    25 February 2020 @ 20:05
    Thanks Dan. RV, I would enjoy seeing a focused series on healthcare and it’s affects in America (personal and corporate) and what potential solutions offer the American people. It’s still the economy stupid, but we have passed the point where it’s more “it’s healthcare stupid”.
    • MW
      Mark W.
      5 March 2020 @ 17:50
      Actually, Healthcare is easy. After spending 3 decades in many different areas of responsibility it became clear that everything is upside down and backwards simultaneously. Think in these terms: there are four players, government, insurance companies, doctors/providers and patients. At each juncture you will notice that the players are out of position, upside down and backwards. The pieces of the legal puzzle are all there. Market forces are providing more than enough capital, but because of misalignment the whole system is burning, as it should. My history shows that the more we focus upon Healthcare the more complicated we make parts of it. Primarily, because there is so much money at stake players get greedy. That is exactly why I loved this video. Dan has a full grasp on the picture as a whole and understands all of the players role within the picture, This makes it so simple for him to forecasting change for investment. The same is true for Healthcare. The answer will lie in simplicity (so not single payer but individual buyer). All the Best to RV! MW
  • SP
    Steve P.
    2 March 2020 @ 03:18
    True about the health issues. That cavity gets you fired for asking and guess what everything’s due the day after payday. It’s a harsh reality I’ve experienced for years. There’s rampant fraud too. Things are getting bad.
    • SP
      Steve P.
      2 March 2020 @ 07:31
      Also, wage theft is a huge issue. I am at the point I am publically dropping hints for my own public safety. Criminals are legit owning businesses and in CA they will threaten to Kill you. Literally no one cares not even the police. The “threat” is “civil” and hard to prove..yada yada that’s the point. States using public policy and language to hurt people. They won’t prosecute wage theft or enforce laws against it. I have the data tons of it. I don’t give a f anymore about my public safety. They want smoke they can get it. They want to say I am “acting crazy, have a personality disorder”, we can alllll be subpoenaed equally down to 20 years web history I don’t give a F not hiding, mask off. It’s not right. I calculated wage theft at $6k / year. We’re working 90-110 fucking hours. 17 hours for $200 and threats of being fired. Listen, if anyone’s reading this I’ll f work for free hunting predatory business owner cuz I worked for the kings and I want to legally decapitate them. However, out here they’re smart AF. This post for example could get me sued and bankrupted and they’ll just laugh. It’s not just health. A majority of people are predators - or consent to protecting predators. It’s a f reality. For example, ms13 decapitated and dismembered people. They were arrested 1.3 miles from my home. It is what it is. I am really ducking drunk but please pay attention, we need to be vigilant about who tf we pay for services because it’s not just the BOD it’s the entire f chain perpetuating economic violence against employees. Including customers.
  • AP
    Anthony P.
    2 March 2020 @ 04:05
    Dan has a great read on social aspect of investing. Enjoyed this one a lot.
  • JE
    James E.
    25 February 2020 @ 21:23
    I'm very lucky to live in New Zealand, the health care here is very, very good. I just cannot understand why the US with all it's wealth has such a broken health care system.
    • AR
      Anthony R.
      25 February 2020 @ 21:39
      because too many people making huge $$ off the status quo and paying the pols to not change it too much.... AND because there are too many folks here that are totally entitled and think they should get something for nothing - and they're allowed to vote.
    • NC
      N C.
      26 February 2020 @ 00:05
      That is in itself much of the problem. The wealth (ie. power) lies in the hands of the insurance and pharmaceutical companies.
    • JT
      Jay T.
      28 February 2020 @ 02:31
      Because we have a government-controlled healthcare system. The ignorant and Marxists think it's a market-based system, but it is not...except for elective areas like cosmetic surgery, hair transplants, Lasik and some concierge/ private pay places like Surgery Center of Oklahoma. Guess what happens in those sectors? Prices are either going down or are significantly beneath the costs of providers that are chained to the govt-controlled system. A true market-based system, with good subsidies (NOT govt healthcare, but payments for private insurance & HC providers) for the poor & indigent would be much better in all ways. Even a system like Australia with gov't paying basic & preventative care, with a private insurance market for catastrophic situations might be better. Until we drive a stake through the heart for Marxist politicians' wet dreams of controlling everyone's lives to the minutest degree, we'll have a challenge. I'm optimistic, but we need some politicians with insight and balls to rip the face off the lies of our current system (which also means severe anti-trust enforcement that is almost non-existent).
    • JH
      Jim H.
      29 February 2020 @ 22:07
      Lots of overseas folks don't realize that our insanely high drug prices subsidize your development costs. Typically drugs go for approval straight to the FDA then overseas filings/distribution. The drug cos then basically sell overseas for additional revenue, nowhere near the prices they get in the USA. Pharma is a huge in lobbying here.
  • JW
    J W.
    29 February 2020 @ 21:00
    Clear eyed view on te current mood in society, politics and retail dynamics. Excellent presentation. Middle classes are being hollow-out everywhere. Less opportunity, stagnant wages (or worse) for a decade, higher taxes etc. It leads into the narrative about whether capitalism is failing us right now (f.e the "Fourth Turning" narrative). Politicians who over-promise and under-deliver will only make this worse. Something has to give though, as the status quo is unsustainable imo.
  • FG
    Francisco G.
    29 February 2020 @ 15:06
    Very articulate young man. The insight provided from this video as to 21 century methodologies of social media was just fabulous to this boomer. As somebody new to Twitter it is fascinating the reach and scope provided on this platform. For somebody who had been reading Albert Edwards work in Barrons back in the day to more recently on Zero Hedge, RV and Twitter. It was really cool, when I responded to a tweet if his, he responded back. Listening to this video made the light go off I am starting to get it. Super Magutu I am going follow you. Thank you RV.
  • NJ
    Nesko J.
    25 February 2020 @ 21:06
    Top 3 interview this quarter. Thank you @SuperMugatu
    • MS
      Marie-Laurencine S.
      28 February 2020 @ 03:04
      New to RV. Would you mind sharing the other 2 or your all time favorites? It baffles me that there is not way to rank videos by most viewed, most likes, most commented etc!
  • JT
    Jay T.
    28 February 2020 @ 02:59
    ESG is such a scam to skim from the paranoid virtue signalers. I hope he ignores it and leaves the ridiculous ESGers in the dust. He's correct that there is a huge advantage in being able to just focus on the best thing for the book, and that advantage will grow until ESG is exposed as the scam it is.
  • MO
    Mathias O.
    27 February 2020 @ 20:13
    super stuff mugatu!!
  • RB
    Rachit B.
    27 February 2020 @ 09:46
    Finance newbie here - can someone please explain the SAAS as a proxy for interest rate bet? Is it that incremental growth is valued much higher when rates are lower? Thanks!
    • TR
      Travis R.
      27 February 2020 @ 12:37
      Bonds yielding zilch "investors" are forced elsewhere. Market is seeking out "bond-like" returns in the equity market in companies with perceived bulletproof streams of income. Major reason for lofty valuations of stalwarts like PG or the utilities.
  • GP
    Graham P.
    27 February 2020 @ 02:34
    Great Interview! One of the best RV interviews I have watched recently
  • RM
    Richard M.
    25 February 2020 @ 22:06
    When I’m gods name are you going to add chromecast support?
    • NC
      N C.
      25 February 2020 @ 23:56
      I have no problem casting the RV website from my Chrome browser to my LG C9 (with Chromecast). Are you not using the Chrome browser?
    • MA
      Martin A.
      26 February 2020 @ 12:29
      Agree! But in the meantime I’m using MomoCast on my iPhone.
  • IH
    Iain H.
    26 February 2020 @ 08:09
    That man is brilliant, great at articulating his thoughts.
  • BT
    Brian T.
    25 February 2020 @ 12:45
    Sometimes I read the comments JUST to see what DLS and Raoul post!! - Any way to get a panel of 3-5 insightful persons to post the top informed perspectives (located FIRST in this list) that avoid any personal/style reviews and just comment on the ideas presented? Good perspectives, thanks for all you are doing at RV!! BT
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      25 February 2020 @ 12:47
      DLS is THE best. He is the core of our community, the voice of reason and is hyper engaged in everything we do. We are so lucky to have him with us on our journey!
    • DS
      David S.
      25 February 2020 @ 14:10
      Thanks to both of you. I really look forward to the interviews and comment sections. RVTV helps me focus on world events and to make some sense of them. RVTV is much more than investing. I can easily be off the mark, but I am sincere. Hopefully it is helping to keep the little grey cells active also. Thanks again. DLS
    • MC
      Mario C.
      26 February 2020 @ 07:05
      who is DLS?
  • DS
    David S.
    25 February 2020 @ 08:35
    I gave a thumbs up to the interview after 15 minutes. Mr. McMurtrie is certainly bright and articulate. I am very happy that RVTV is working hard to present to us all the market information from many vantage points. I wish Mr. McMurtrie the best of luck. It is simply beyond my understanding as an old person. To reiterate this is exactly what RVTV should be doing. It is I who is at fault for not trying to understand the whole program. The wheel turn. DLS
    • tc
      thomas c.
      25 February 2020 @ 15:37
      I'm probably older than you but it's the younger generation that really keeps me connected to what's happening in the world. That and the old geezers Jim Grant brings on makes RV a complete service. A dozen hat tips to Raoul and the crew.
    • DS
      David S.
      25 February 2020 @ 17:55
      t c. - I agree with you about younger generations keeping us connected. I invest an hour a day at my local microbrewery learning from the younger generations. Life is short at any age. We must figure out our priorities. DLS
    • MH
      Martin H.
      26 February 2020 @ 02:23
      Sampling?
  • PG
    Philippe G.
    25 February 2020 @ 19:17
    Excellent!!
  • RM
    Robert M.
    25 February 2020 @ 17:18
    Great video. Really like Dan's view on the market and investing. Asking the questions that run through my mind when looking at my portfolio.
  • JD
    John D.
    25 February 2020 @ 16:04
    Please have this guy back. One of the best RV videos I've seen as of late.
  • NR
    Nathan R.
    25 February 2020 @ 15:45
    Tribunes of the Plebs v Patricians. Amplitude of dissatisfaction increases until a Right/Left saviour emerges to scour the system. Coronavirus catalyst for universal healthcare? Julius Caesar Sanders or Octavian Trump, take your pick.
  • SW
    Scott W.
    25 February 2020 @ 13:54
    Pure brilliant gold.
  • JB
    Jon B.
    25 February 2020 @ 13:10
    fantastic insight. This is the kind of fundamental analysis that is needed for long term value investing. Know your company, know your trade.
  • GC
    George C.
    25 February 2020 @ 12:53
    Very, very good.
  • SC
    Sam C.
    25 February 2020 @ 12:52
    Good luck on countering the narrative for BBBY.
  • js
    john s.
    25 February 2020 @ 11:34
    boring
  • RP
    Raoul P. | Founder
    25 February 2020 @ 11:20
    Really really good interview. Dan is very impressive.

Mark Yusko

Morgan Creek Capital Management, Co- Founder, CEO, & CIO

Mark Yuskois the Founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management. He is also the Managing Partner of Morgan Creek Digital Assets. Morgan Creek Capital Management was founded in 2004 and currently manages close to $2 billion in discretionary and non-discretionary assets. Prior to founding Morgan Creek, Mr. Yusko was CIO and Founder of UNC Management Company (UNCMC), the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Before that, he was Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office.Mr. Yusko has been at the forefront of institutional investing throughout his career. An early investor in alternative asset classes at Notre Dame, he brought the Endowment Model of investing to UNC, which contributed to significant performance gains for the Endowment. The Endowment Model is the cornerstone philosophy of Morgan Creek, as is the mandate to Invest in Innovation. Mr. Yusko is again at the forefront of investing through Morgan Creek Digital Assets, which was formed in 2018. Morgan Creek Digital is an early stage investor in blockchain technology, digital currency and digital assets through the firm’s Venture Capital and Digital Asset Index Fund.Mr. Yusko received a BA with Honors from the University of Notre Dame and an MBA in Accounting and Finance from the University of Chicago.

Anthony Scaramucci

SkyBridge Capital, Founder & Co-Managing Partner

Prior to founding SkyBridge in 2005, Scaramucci co-founded investment partnership Oscar Capital Management, which was sold to Neuberger Berman, LLC in 2001. Earlier, he was a vice president in Private Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs & Co. In 2016, Scaramucci was ranked #85 in Worth Magazine’sPower 100: The 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. In 2011, he received Ernst & Young’s “Entrepreneur of the Year –New York” Award in the Financial Services category. Anthony is amember of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), vice chair of the Kennedy Center Corporate Fund Board, a board member of both The Brain Tumor Foundation and Business Executives for National Security (BENS), and a Trustee of the United States Olympic & Paralympic Foundation. He was a member of the New York City Financial Services Advisory Committee from 2007 to 2012. In November 2016, he was named to President-Elect Trump’s 16-person Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee. In June 2017, he wasnamed the Chief Strategy Officer of the EXIM Bank. He served as the White House Communications Director for a period in July 2017. Scaramucci, a native of Long Island, New York, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Tufts University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School.

Michael Saylor

MicroStrategy, Co-Founder

Mr. Saylor is a technologist, entrepreneur, business executive, philanthropist, and best-selling author. He currently serves as Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Office of MicroStrategy, Inc. (MSTR). Since co-founding the company at the age of 24, Mr. Saylor has built MicroStrategy into a global leader in business intelligence, mobile software, and cloud-based services. In 2012, he authoredThe Mobile Wave: How Mobile Intelligence Will Change Everything, which earned a spot onThe NewYork TimesBest Sellers list. Mr. Saylor attended the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, receiving an S.B. in Aeronautics and Astronautics and an S.B. in Science, Technology, and Society.

Alex Saunders

Nugget's News, Founder & CEO

Alex Saunders is the founder and CEO of Nugget’s News, a digital media company focused on all things crypto. Alex has been captivated by cryptocurrency since 2012 and in 2017 he began educating globally on the benefits of cryptocurrency and how to safely acquireit. Nugget’s News has been listed as a top-20 podcast by Business Insider, ShapeShift and Lifehacker and has over 120k YouTube subscribers with 9 million total views.Alex is also heavily focused on his cryptocurrency education platform Collective Shift which currently serves over 4,500 members. provides his unique perspectives by utilising his expertise in fundamental analysis, technical analysis and market sentiment. He is working towards his mission of making it easier for everyone to understand the financial world.

James Putra

TradeStation Crypto, Inc., Sr. Director of Product Strategy

James helped launch TradeStation Crypto’s offeringwhichutilizesa true online brokerage model that self-directed investors and traders have come to expect for equities, futures,and foreign currency markets. He is a reputed crypto asset specialist and blockchain thought leader focused on helping people find innovativeways to participate in this space. He is active in the blockchain community with speaking engagements, TV appearances and mentoring.James has over 15 years of experience in the Fintech industry.

Raoul Pal

Real Vision, Co-Founder & CEO

Raoul Pal is the Co-Founder and CEO of Real Vision, the world’s pre-eminent financial media platform, which helps members understand the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy. Real Vision members also have access to Real Vision Crypto, a cryptocurrency and digital assets video channelwatched by over 80,000 people.In addition, Raoul has been publishing Global Macro Investor since January 2005 to provide original, high quality, quantifiable and easily readable research for the global macro investment community hedge funds, family offices, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. It draws on his considerable 31 years of experience in advising hedge funds and managing a global macro hedge fund. Global Macro Investor has one of the very best, proven track records of any newsletter in the industry, producing extremely positive returns in eight out of the last twelve years. He retired from managing client money at the age of 36 in 2004 and now lives in the tiny Caribbean island of Little Cayman in the Cayman Islands. Previously he co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul moved to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe. In this role, Raoul established strong relationships with many of the world’s pre-eminent hedge funds, learning from their styles and experiences. Other stop-off points on the way were NatWest Markets and HSBC, although hebegan his career by training traders in technical analysis.

Peter McCormack

What Bitcoin Did, Journalist

Peter McCormack is a full timejournalist/podcaster covering topics such as Freedom, Human Rights, Censorship and Bitcoin. Peter created and hosts the What Bitcoin Did Podcast, a twice-weekly Bitcoin podcast where he interviews experts in the world of Bitcoin development, privacy, investment and adoption. Launched in November of 2017, the podcast has grown to over 100 episodes with a guest list that is a testament to the diversity of knowledge and opinions that represent the broader Bitcoin community. Expanding his growing list of humaninterest recordings, documentaries and films Peter has recently launched theDefiancepodcast andDefianceTV.

Caitlin Long

Avanti Financial Group, Founder & CEO

22-year Wall Street veteran who has been active in bitcoin and blockchain since 2012. In 2018-20 she led the charge to make her native state of Wyoming an oasis for blockchain companies in the US, where she helped Wyoming enact 20 blockchain-enabling laws. From 2016-18 she jointly spearheaded a blockchain project for delivering market index data to Vanguard as chairman and president of Symbiont, an enterprise blockchain start-up. Caitlin ran Morgan Stanley’s pension solutions business (2007-2016), heldsenior roles at Credit Suisse (1997-2007) and began her career at Salomon Brothers (1994-1997). She is a graduate of Harvard Law School (JD, 1994), the Kennedy School of Government (MPP, 1994) and the University of Wyoming (BA, 1990).

Hunter Horsley

Bitwise Asset Management, CEO

Hunter Horsley is Chief Executive Officer of Bitwise Asset Management. Prior to Bitwise, he was a product manager at Facebook, working on advertiser products including the multibillion-dollar sponsored content ecosystem and ad breaks in videos. Before Facebook, Horlsey was a product manager at Instagram, responsible for multiple advertising products generating several hundred million dollars of revenue. He is a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, with a B.S. in economics. Recently, Horsley was named a member of Forbes’ 2019 “30 Under 30” list.

Luke Gromen

Forest For The Trees, Founder & President

Luke Gromen has 25 years of experience in equity research, equity research sales, and as a macro/thematic analyst.He is the founder and president of macro/thematic research firm FFTT, LLC, which he founded in early 2014 to address and leverage the opportunity he saw created by applying what clientsand former colleagues consistently described as a “unique ability to connect the dots” during a time when he saw an increasing “silo-ing” of perspectives occurring on Wall Street and in corporate America.FFTT caters to institutions and sophisticated individuals by aggregating a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks for his clients.Prior to founding FFTT, Luke was a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company, where he worked from 2006-14.At CRC, Luke worked in sales and edited CRC’s flagship weekly thematic research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”)for the firm’s clients.Prior to that,Luke was a partner at Midwest Research, where he worked in equity research and sales from 1996-2006.While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly thematic summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients, in whichhe aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.Luke Gromen holds a BBA in Finance and Accounting from the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University.He earned the CFA designation in 2003.

Meltem Demirors

CoinShares, Chief Strategy Officer

Meltem Demirors is Chief Strategy Officer of CoinShares, an investment firm that manages billions in assets on behalf of a global investor base, and is a trusted partner to investors and entrepreneurs navigating the digital asset ecosystem. Meltemoversees the firm’s managed strategies group and its New York office and leads corporate development. Previously, she was part of the founding team of Digital Currency Group. As a veteran investor in the digital currency space, she has invested in over 250 companies in the ecosystem. Meltem is passionate about education and advocacy, and teaches the Oxford Blockchain Strategy Programme and co-chairs the WEF Cryptocurrency Council.