Unmasking SuperMugatu — How the Pros Find Edge

Published on
February 25th, 2020
Duration
48 minutes

Agricultural Commodities and the Impending Solar Cycle Shock


Unmasking SuperMugatu — How the Pros Find Edge

The Expert View ·
Featuring Daniel McMurtrie

Published on: February 25th, 2020 • Duration: 48 minutes

Dan McMurtrie, founder of Tyro Capital Management (also known as SuperMugatu on Twitter), joins Real Vision to discuss his analytical research into the off-the-beaten path sub-sectors of the global economy that he believes will provide asymmetric returns. He talks about the evolution of financial markets and how he takes advantage of inefficiencies in financial markets and social trends to find edge in a world sparse with alpha generating opportunities. He reveals his philosophy on asset allocation – balancing potential non-linear risks with opportunity capitalization. McMurtrie also shares a few of his favorite value plays and explains the reasoning behind his theses. Filmed on February 20, 2020 in New York.

Comments

Transcript

  • JC
    Jack C.
    2 May 2020 @ 12:02
    Really enjoyed this video. Dan is definitely an impressive rising talent worth paying attention to. He has a well rounded investment process, tracks relevant data, pays attention to prevailing thesis and looks for variant perception. Pls have him back in future.
  • MH
    Michael H.
    17 March 2020 @ 15:00
    Please bring Dan back. I really enjoyed this interview. Focused, and you can tell he has down his homework. well done!
  • DR
    Daniel R.
    25 February 2020 @ 20:05
    Thanks Dan. RV, I would enjoy seeing a focused series on healthcare and it’s affects in America (personal and corporate) and what potential solutions offer the American people. It’s still the economy stupid, but we have passed the point where it’s more “it’s healthcare stupid”.
    • MW
      Mark W.
      5 March 2020 @ 17:50
      Actually, Healthcare is easy. After spending 3 decades in many different areas of responsibility it became clear that everything is upside down and backwards simultaneously. Think in these terms: there are four players, government, insurance companies, doctors/providers and patients. At each juncture you will notice that the players are out of position, upside down and backwards. The pieces of the legal puzzle are all there. Market forces are providing more than enough capital, but because of misalignment the whole system is burning, as it should. My history shows that the more we focus upon Healthcare the more complicated we make parts of it. Primarily, because there is so much money at stake players get greedy. That is exactly why I loved this video. Dan has a full grasp on the picture as a whole and understands all of the players role within the picture, This makes it so simple for him to forecasting change for investment. The same is true for Healthcare. The answer will lie in simplicity (so not single payer but individual buyer). All the Best to RV! MW
  • SP
    Steve P.
    2 March 2020 @ 03:18
    True about the health issues. That cavity gets you fired for asking and guess what everything’s due the day after payday. It’s a harsh reality I’ve experienced for years. There’s rampant fraud too. Things are getting bad.
    • SP
      Steve P.
      2 March 2020 @ 07:31
      Also, wage theft is a huge issue. I am at the point I am publically dropping hints for my own public safety. Criminals are legit owning businesses and in CA they will threaten to Kill you. Literally no one cares not even the police. The “threat” is “civil” and hard to prove..yada yada that’s the point. States using public policy and language to hurt people. They won’t prosecute wage theft or enforce laws against it. I have the data tons of it. I don’t give a f anymore about my public safety. They want smoke they can get it. They want to say I am “acting crazy, have a personality disorder”, we can alllll be subpoenaed equally down to 20 years web history I don’t give a F not hiding, mask off. It’s not right. I calculated wage theft at $6k / year. We’re working 90-110 fucking hours. 17 hours for $200 and threats of being fired. Listen, if anyone’s reading this I’ll f work for free hunting predatory business owner cuz I worked for the kings and I want to legally decapitate them. However, out here they’re smart AF. This post for example could get me sued and bankrupted and they’ll just laugh. It’s not just health. A majority of people are predators - or consent to protecting predators. It’s a f reality. For example, ms13 decapitated and dismembered people. They were arrested 1.3 miles from my home. It is what it is. I am really ducking drunk but please pay attention, we need to be vigilant about who tf we pay for services because it’s not just the BOD it’s the entire f chain perpetuating economic violence against employees. Including customers.
  • AP
    Anthony P.
    2 March 2020 @ 04:05
    Dan has a great read on social aspect of investing. Enjoyed this one a lot.
  • JE
    James E.
    25 February 2020 @ 21:23
    I'm very lucky to live in New Zealand, the health care here is very, very good. I just cannot understand why the US with all it's wealth has such a broken health care system.
    • AR
      Anthony R.
      25 February 2020 @ 21:39
      because too many people making huge $$ off the status quo and paying the pols to not change it too much.... AND because there are too many folks here that are totally entitled and think they should get something for nothing - and they're allowed to vote.
    • NC
      N C.
      26 February 2020 @ 00:05
      That is in itself much of the problem. The wealth (ie. power) lies in the hands of the insurance and pharmaceutical companies.
    • JT
      Jay T.
      28 February 2020 @ 02:31
      Because we have a government-controlled healthcare system. The ignorant and Marxists think it's a market-based system, but it is not...except for elective areas like cosmetic surgery, hair transplants, Lasik and some concierge/ private pay places like Surgery Center of Oklahoma. Guess what happens in those sectors? Prices are either going down or are significantly beneath the costs of providers that are chained to the govt-controlled system. A true market-based system, with good subsidies (NOT govt healthcare, but payments for private insurance & HC providers) for the poor & indigent would be much better in all ways. Even a system like Australia with gov't paying basic & preventative care, with a private insurance market for catastrophic situations might be better. Until we drive a stake through the heart for Marxist politicians' wet dreams of controlling everyone's lives to the minutest degree, we'll have a challenge. I'm optimistic, but we need some politicians with insight and balls to rip the face off the lies of our current system (which also means severe anti-trust enforcement that is almost non-existent).
    • JH
      Jim H.
      29 February 2020 @ 22:07
      Lots of overseas folks don't realize that our insanely high drug prices subsidize your development costs. Typically drugs go for approval straight to the FDA then overseas filings/distribution. The drug cos then basically sell overseas for additional revenue, nowhere near the prices they get in the USA. Pharma is a huge in lobbying here.
  • JW
    J W.
    29 February 2020 @ 21:00
    Clear eyed view on te current mood in society, politics and retail dynamics. Excellent presentation. Middle classes are being hollow-out everywhere. Less opportunity, stagnant wages (or worse) for a decade, higher taxes etc. It leads into the narrative about whether capitalism is failing us right now (f.e the "Fourth Turning" narrative). Politicians who over-promise and under-deliver will only make this worse. Something has to give though, as the status quo is unsustainable imo.
  • FG
    Francisco G.
    29 February 2020 @ 15:06
    Very articulate young man. The insight provided from this video as to 21 century methodologies of social media was just fabulous to this boomer. As somebody new to Twitter it is fascinating the reach and scope provided on this platform. For somebody who had been reading Albert Edwards work in Barrons back in the day to more recently on Zero Hedge, RV and Twitter. It was really cool, when I responded to a tweet if his, he responded back. Listening to this video made the light go off I am starting to get it. Super Magutu I am going follow you. Thank you RV.
  • NJ
    Nesko J.
    25 February 2020 @ 21:06
    Top 3 interview this quarter. Thank you @SuperMugatu
    • MS
      Marie-Laurencine S.
      28 February 2020 @ 03:04
      New to RV. Would you mind sharing the other 2 or your all time favorites? It baffles me that there is not way to rank videos by most viewed, most likes, most commented etc!
  • JT
    Jay T.
    28 February 2020 @ 02:59
    ESG is such a scam to skim from the paranoid virtue signalers. I hope he ignores it and leaves the ridiculous ESGers in the dust. He's correct that there is a huge advantage in being able to just focus on the best thing for the book, and that advantage will grow until ESG is exposed as the scam it is.
  • MO
    Mathias O.
    27 February 2020 @ 20:13
    super stuff mugatu!!
  • RB
    Rachit B.
    27 February 2020 @ 09:46
    Finance newbie here - can someone please explain the SAAS as a proxy for interest rate bet? Is it that incremental growth is valued much higher when rates are lower? Thanks!
    • TR
      Travis R.
      27 February 2020 @ 12:37
      Bonds yielding zilch "investors" are forced elsewhere. Market is seeking out "bond-like" returns in the equity market in companies with perceived bulletproof streams of income. Major reason for lofty valuations of stalwarts like PG or the utilities.
  • GP
    Graham P.
    27 February 2020 @ 02:34
    Great Interview! One of the best RV interviews I have watched recently
  • RM
    Richard M.
    25 February 2020 @ 22:06
    When I’m gods name are you going to add chromecast support?
    • NC
      N C.
      25 February 2020 @ 23:56
      I have no problem casting the RV website from my Chrome browser to my LG C9 (with Chromecast). Are you not using the Chrome browser?
    • MA
      Martin A.
      26 February 2020 @ 12:29
      Agree! But in the meantime I’m using MomoCast on my iPhone.
  • IH
    Iain H.
    26 February 2020 @ 08:09
    That man is brilliant, great at articulating his thoughts.
  • BT
    Brian T.
    25 February 2020 @ 12:45
    Sometimes I read the comments JUST to see what DLS and Raoul post!! - Any way to get a panel of 3-5 insightful persons to post the top informed perspectives (located FIRST in this list) that avoid any personal/style reviews and just comment on the ideas presented? Good perspectives, thanks for all you are doing at RV!! BT
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      25 February 2020 @ 12:47
      DLS is THE best. He is the core of our community, the voice of reason and is hyper engaged in everything we do. We are so lucky to have him with us on our journey!
    • DS
      David S.
      25 February 2020 @ 14:10
      Thanks to both of you. I really look forward to the interviews and comment sections. RVTV helps me focus on world events and to make some sense of them. RVTV is much more than investing. I can easily be off the mark, but I am sincere. Hopefully it is helping to keep the little grey cells active also. Thanks again. DLS
    • MC
      Mario C.
      26 February 2020 @ 07:05
      who is DLS?
  • DS
    David S.
    25 February 2020 @ 08:35
    I gave a thumbs up to the interview after 15 minutes. Mr. McMurtrie is certainly bright and articulate. I am very happy that RVTV is working hard to present to us all the market information from many vantage points. I wish Mr. McMurtrie the best of luck. It is simply beyond my understanding as an old person. To reiterate this is exactly what RVTV should be doing. It is I who is at fault for not trying to understand the whole program. The wheel turn. DLS
    • tc
      thomas c.
      25 February 2020 @ 15:37
      I'm probably older than you but it's the younger generation that really keeps me connected to what's happening in the world. That and the old geezers Jim Grant brings on makes RV a complete service. A dozen hat tips to Raoul and the crew.
    • DS
      David S.
      25 February 2020 @ 17:55
      t c. - I agree with you about younger generations keeping us connected. I invest an hour a day at my local microbrewery learning from the younger generations. Life is short at any age. We must figure out our priorities. DLS
    • MH
      Martin H.
      26 February 2020 @ 02:23
      Sampling?
  • PG
    Philippe G.
    25 February 2020 @ 19:17
    Excellent!!
  • RM
    Robert M.
    25 February 2020 @ 17:18
    Great video. Really like Dan's view on the market and investing. Asking the questions that run through my mind when looking at my portfolio.
  • JD
    John D.
    25 February 2020 @ 16:04
    Please have this guy back. One of the best RV videos I've seen as of late.
  • NR
    Nathan R.
    25 February 2020 @ 15:45
    Tribunes of the Plebs v Patricians. Amplitude of dissatisfaction increases until a Right/Left saviour emerges to scour the system. Coronavirus catalyst for universal healthcare? Julius Caesar Sanders or Octavian Trump, take your pick.
  • SW
    Scott W.
    25 February 2020 @ 13:54
    Pure brilliant gold.
  • JB
    Jon B.
    25 February 2020 @ 13:10
    fantastic insight. This is the kind of fundamental analysis that is needed for long term value investing. Know your company, know your trade.
  • GC
    George C.
    25 February 2020 @ 12:53
    Very, very good.
  • SC
    Sam C.
    25 February 2020 @ 12:52
    Good luck on countering the narrative for BBBY.
  • js
    john s.
    25 February 2020 @ 11:34
    boring
  • RP
    Raoul P. | Founder
    25 February 2020 @ 11:20
    Really really good interview. Dan is very impressive.