This was a lot of fun, informative too.

Im pretty sure its an amazing interview!! i just have to watch it again for the 3rd time to understand it a lill bit more :-( . But over all , thank god for RV, Raoul Pal and Grant Williams, this is true education.

I greatly enjoyed this interview, but wanted to re-visit the GDP call....Maybe it was the shutdown, and I know GDP is perhaps the most revised number of all....but Q4 GDP just printed 2.6% (which is where Atlanta GDP Now was when the interview posted) vs a 1.56% that Hedgeye was forecasting.....and the Q4 PCE was 0.1% from expectations and printed 1.8% (now if inflation is really running 1% higher than Hedgeye is spot on & GDP is lower) - any thoughts or feedback would be welcome, and again loved the interview

OK, I can buy it. Rate of change is important. Great. Now show me the performance figures. Even if pro forma. Everything else is a marketing love in. Funnily enough on Hedgeye website I can find not a single number. Am I mistaken? And if not: why?

Im pretty sure its an amazing interview!! i just have to watch it again for the 3rd time to understand it a lill bit more :-( . But over all , thank god for RV, Raoul Pal and Grant Williams, this is true education.

Excellent!!!

"You don't need recession to lose half your money" -- well said!

I have no first hand experience of Hedgeye, but what concerns me about it is the same thing that concerns me about the popularity of Ray Dalio. Everyone is always trying to copy the previous huge success, and the more that becomes known and copied the less it will offer an edge. I'm not saying everyone in the entire investment world is following Hedgeye or Dalio type analysis, but on the Hedgeye website it mentions in bold writing that the institutional subscribers using the service manage around $10 trillion dollars. So my point is, if you have an edge, surely you erode it significantly by encouraging mass adoption? I imagine Felix Zulauf was right in his interview, which is one of my favourites on Real Vision. A lot of money is chasing the same sort of modeling, the same big data analytics, trying to become the next Dalio or Bridgewater, but the really big edge is probably going to move on somewhere else. Maybe back to maverick traders as Felix suggested, or something/someone none of us have heard of yet.

Just an excellent interview and I won’t even continue to detail further praise as there are so many great comments posted by my fellow RV’ers! Ok...here’s my Agora story; 35 years ago I put some money with a Newsletter writer that I had read for five years. He made me 5%/year (net 3% to me after his 2% annual fee) for 5 1/2 years while the S & P went up approx 15%/year during that time—I would probably have continued with him for another few years hoping that his record improved (did I say I really liked his writing style?) except for....wait for it.....I got an unsolicited advertisement recommending his investment services touting the fact that he had made 30% annual returns over the past several years....knowing that I had received his quarterly statements and tax reporting information for my 5%-2%=3% returns I met with him and fired him. I learned that he had sold out to Agora and that Agora had sent the mailings exaggerating his returns unknowingly to me, an existing client of his. Never wanted to go to Baltimore anymore.

I would love a series of interviews where you just dig into this guy's mind about all the relationships among assets lurking in there. Just really dig into his process. This interview was two guys shooting the shit, with interesting things hinted at.

Superb.

One of your best interviews Raoul. Well done. I'm also a Hedgeye subscriber and I think they have a great product. I would recommend Keith's work to anyone. You didn't touch on it in the interview, but it has been very helpful to me to start each day at 7 am with coach Keith on the macro show and get my head in the game. All great players need a coach and Keith is superb in that regard. I hope Keith is there with me on the macro show for decades to come.

Keith is excellent, top drawer research at hedgeye

FYI - there is an error within the slide outlining the quads. In quad 3 the slide states inflation decelerates but should be accelerates... had me scratching my head for a minute...

I've been a Hedgeye subscriber for nearly three years, for an individual investor/trader I'm of the view there is no better place or service to spend money with. However a small word of caution for those unable to afford institutional level sub. (like me) an 'All Access' pass at $2k per year doesn't provide a personal service therefore to really appreciate Keith's work it took me 6 months of daily listening to his Macro Show, note taking and personal study of his entire content output to 'get it'.

This might just be my favourite interview on RV to date..Really fucking brilliant! I LOL'd hard at about 7mins to go when Keith took a shot at Josh Brown!!

This is absolutely amazing - thanks for the great Interview!

It is interesting. Could be a good idea to let ppl send qs prior to some talks. Two things were missing for me: value in the mkt as defined by fcf yield/growth at different points ( real money buys valuations in the contact of macro) and fwd look, for instance trade deal will mean growth momentum starts improving and comps easy at the end of 2019. Historically mkt can look fwd 6 months

Excellent choice of guest. Good interview as well. I look forward to a day when "new wall" media is the norm.

Great work Keith. I have always appreciated your process and transparency

Not to be a pain, but it is 'bottom-up' not 'bottoms-up' when referring to fundamental investing. Please reserve 'bottoms-up' for drinks after work.

"I just thought, the smaller probability outcome is going to be the one that happens, which is dumb thing to do, betting on the smaller probability. But that is what I did and screwed it up." -- Raoul Pal <----- That statement hit me like freight train. It is pregnant with so much meaning. What is not said is how twisted the system has become, and that even a cursory glance at market history specifically, and human history in general will tell you what is not only inevitable, but what the scope of that inevitability will be. i.e. Raoul's "The End Game." What has happened to me time and time again is the breath taking scope of that "small probability" so impacts me psychologically and even emotionally, that the scope of the outcomes bleeds over into my perceived probability of the outcome and puts it thumb on the scale of my decision making. Inevitable exist to infinity. Imminent but for one brief moment in time.

That was a treat to watch!

I watched and enjoyed the interview twice. Models and humans are fallible however, and the future is unknown. Both Keith and Raoul explained this during the interview. The follow statement by Keith, therefore, was a little disturbing: “We've got that down now. That, I have a roadmap. The process is repeatable. It's literally impossible for me to have style /drift relative to that component of the model.” The first derivative of growth and inflation can be miscalculated. DLS

Great interview, could have listened for another hour.

Excellent! Attention RV: Would love to see/read in-depth content on the intersection of data science and investing. Keith just briefly skimmed the surface on this

Does Real Vision have a dress code?

I always find it helpful when the video has breaks that show the various topics covered in the video. It helps with being able to go back and re-listen to things without having to navigate the entire video. Perhaps you could add that to this video? Great content. Thank you.

At last, a meeting between the best in global macro.

Not subscribed to macro insiders on RV, but this is what I'd imagine it to be. Thanks a lot for giving RVTV subs like myself access to it, it was very interesting!

Brilliant interview! As a long time subscriber of both RV and Hedgeye I admit the biggest recent error I've made was being pigheaded about Kieth's quad 1 bullish call in November 2016. I found his abrupt change of mind offensive but have since been able (for the most part) to eradicate personal bias and follow the data wherever it leads. Thanks primarily to Hedgeye, my clients are far more likely to achieve their objectives and I may actually survive my 4th decade in the business. Sunday 1/27/2019 10:00AM Hedgeye 565 Old Wall 19

Thanks both, great interview! I listened to Keith on Macrovoices in 2017 and 2018 and he absolutely nailed it both times.

Firstly, I would like to say I've really enjoyed the interview - its humbling to hear when people talk about how they f'd up along the way and what they learnt from it. Imo, over the last couple of years RV has added value to my process, philosophy and style. I am in my 9th month in my PM career (lucky to be given the opportunity) in the UK small cap space and would like to say thank you to RV, and not because of the, 'new ideas', 'what will happen in the macro world', or 'how can RV help inflate my wallet', but to listen and read about opinions that continue to question my process, philosophy and style especially after the last 10 years of the bull run... My key takeaway to my PM career (which is what I always wanted to do since I graduated in 2008) is survive.. haha

Excellent interview ! So much value here in this discussion

Who is the amoral “Billion dollar behemoth” that pumps out BS newsletters Raoul referred to?

If we get only one interview like this a month (or even quarter) I feel it is worth a subscription to RV. It is where both persons are at par although they might have a different area of strength or expertise.

Best interview ever!!! Two Rebels improving the world. Love you guys & Thank you a ton!!! Best Regards Andreas

This interview is embarrassing. I am embarrassed I thought of not renewing my subscription to RealVision. I'm embarrassed I didn't know Raoul and his partners started RealVision as a bonefide public service to investors & traders (and little fish like me) so we could have a better chance at keeping our hard earned money. What. An. Excellent. Interview. Sorry Raoul.

absolutely brilliant chat. Thanks for putting this together.

Great interview between two mavericks who genuinely care about the little guy. I feel very lucky to have found Hedgeye and Real Vision at this time in the cycle. Highly recommend both.

Great to see Keith on RV. I'm a charter RV member and have been following Kieth for quite a number of years. Always found Kieth to be transparent and continually refining his system with positive results. Both, in my opinion, constructively provide an honest service to the average guy. Glad to see you continue to keep your stick on the ice Kieth .. bravo! Yup, I'm an Ontario boy :-)

Love the call-out of the RWM folks. Definitely to be avoided.

@Milton: I think there's a mistake in the Four Quadrant model, 39:31. Bottom right is surely meant to be inflation ACCELERATING???

This was brilliant- In top 5 RV segments; Keith and Raoul 2 of the best in the game, changing the game,

certainly wouldn't get that coverage on cnbc! very good

Although it is a brilliant interview, the main message except Quads’ analysis has been really short. Having understood that this interview is really macro based, I heard just few narratives on everything but not a clear cut trading view. I would expect more to see if the RV keeps him interviewed in other episodes.

Gained a lot of insight and respect for Keith here, good discussion here.

Thank you Keith and Raoul, first time can really feel that someone really cares enough about the average Joe, that and your segment on retirement crisis

Great! Thanks guys!

Superb stuff. One to watch again to ensure all the insight sinks in. Looking dapper Raoul. Nice jumper (lose the socks mind ;)).

Probably gonna have to watch this one twice

Brilliant

Keith can be ... mmmm ... canadian? What a positive surprise!

Hedge funds have never used more data than today, and their returns have never been worse.

To Raoul and Keith, genuine question. You talk about rebellion, building a process and education. RV has unlocked the best minds of finance to give their views using their own process and distill them to a wider audience (today people interested in finance, potentially much wider tomorrow). This is Market Wizards in real time and beyond, so kudos. HedgeEye is apparently on top of the game with data analytics and their process. Great. (Long) Question: When is it that both of your companies will help people refine THEIR OWN process (hopefully data-driven and repeatable, maybe with some models)? Is it a specific series you are working on that will only focus on that and more in the format of courses? Watching videos to try to glean insights is all good, but for me the real goal of RV - which puts both PROCESS and EDUCATION high on its list of core values - should be to get the viewers to build their own process with much more step-by-step educational videos, and see how to incorporate new insights from guests to refine the process (an example here would be to say 1/ You can build your own quadrant doing ABC and 2/ To start with basic data analytics do ABC). Some viewers will think this is spoon-feeding, others would say “dream-on, this is proprietary”, others that doing data analytics for retail is not possible. But I suspect that getting down to the bottom and using first principles each time would be something so useful for the most of us (and this is why I would suggest to get the process-oriented insights somewhere). Maybe other viewers will respond to this comment by saying that their process is now so robust thanks to RV (others that it's not RV's role, in which case talking about "a platform that gives you tidbits of other people's process" would be more accurate) and in which case I would be interested in knowing how they did it.

Very good.......does Keith publish his Profit Factor quarterly?

quad3 and quad4 with same parameters? quad3 probably inflation accelerating

Great conversation !!! We could literally see you guys exploring each others minds on camera. That is why I like the visual video interview as opposed to an audio podcast. Brilliant exchange. BTW, my least favourite comment by 'Business News Channels' is when the in the business section of the nightly news the reporter says "Stocks were down today on profit taking" Hahahahahaha Wah?!?!?! Thanks RV for what Raoul was describing as Integrity and Responsibility in this space. Those two words need to be resuscitated :-)

RVTV is fast becoming the CNBC.

I am a founding subscriber to Real Vision and a long-time subscriber to Hedgeye All Access. Because of that fact, I did not learn a lot from this conversation that I did not already know about Keith. That said, I really liked the honesty from both Keith and Raoul when describing their bad calls in the past. I also like that Keith, Raoul and their respective firms are on the same page of helping to educate investors to a better way of investing their savings so that they don't lose half of it in the next bear market, which I think has started. With the help of both firms, I have been able to improve my investment process to take advantage of the "Old Wall" way of thinking, (which I was part of as a RIA for many years).

Absolutely fantastic!!!

Hey, what's Keith's record like?

Holy cowbell, Matt Damon is smart!

great interview

Made lots of $$$ thanks to both RV and Hedgeye in the last 3 years. Great to see these two in a conversation.

This is another one of those videos from RV that is just totally absorbing. I feel privileged to be able to watch for a whole hour, two of the brightest macro analysts in the world discuss and debate how the markets interact, the key economic data factors to follow, and potentially what to expect from the major asset classes in different global scenarios. Awesome. I especially loved Keith's anecdote about the Fed economist, who did not recognise his own data! As I think Keith said, "You could not make it up!" Thank you RV.

Really, really good!

This is brilliant RV just like his journey published in his Diary. Please keep bringing him in future.

I had been waiting for Keith on RV. Thx!!

Finally RV got around to bringing on Keith. I've done very well with his services. I think he's got it nailed.

Superb