An International Perspective on COVID-19

Published on
April 20th, 2020
Duration
53 minutes


An International Perspective on COVID-19

The Interview ·
Featuring Dr. Adam Posen and Pedro da Costa

Published on: April 20th, 2020 • Duration: 53 minutes

With every day of lockdown and every dollar of stimulus, policy and markets are becoming more and more intertwined. That is why Pedro da Costa has been conducting a series of interviews with central bankers, policymakers, and the economists who inform their views. Pedro continues this series with Dr. Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Together they examine the efficacy of the current fiscal and monetary policy response and how this crisis is affecting globalization, emerging markets, and the state of the European Union. Filmed on April 16, 2020.

Comments

Transcript

  • SM
    Stephane M.
    20 April 2020 @ 10:12
    How can he say that European banks are in better shape now than in the past?!?!? Balance sheet study anyone?!?? Hey Pedro, are all your friends leftist?!?!? I won't say what I think about this video (hey we have the filmed date!!!) cause my comment will be erase ;-) Can we have the views of someone who believe that this lock-down is total BS now?!!?
    • DH
      Dan H.
      20 April 2020 @ 19:09
      Britain's Peter Hitchens
    • PD
      Pedro D. | Contributor
      22 April 2020 @ 19:59
      Find me one credible doctor who thinks the lockdown is BS. This is not a question for economists or financiers.
    • SW
      Stephen W.
      25 April 2020 @ 20:00
      Are the people heading up Swedens COVID response not credible?
    • SM
      Stephane M.
      28 April 2020 @ 10:23
      There's plenty of doctor Pedro that don't spread fears Pedro: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/california-er-doctors-speak-out/ And guess what will happen if we don't think like YOU: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/canada/canada-proposing-to-imprison-anyone-who-argues-against-the-government-bill-gates/ Come on Pedro, don't listen to your friends and do your own DD. Where I live 88% of people who died from Covid are over 70 years old. Let the people live their own life... At been too worry of dying, you forget to LIVE!!!
    • SM
      Stephane M.
      28 April 2020 @ 11:32
      Sorry for the first link, it was deleted from youtube (they can't stand opposing views!)... Let's try with this one: https://fromthetrenchesworldreport.com/dr-erickson-covid-19-briefing-pt-2/266824
  • SB
    Stewart B.
    21 April 2020 @ 15:51
    When you have Krugman and Posen as guests, there is little difference between RealVision and BubbleVision (Bloomberg etc). IMHO both of them are completely detached from markets and reality.
    • IH
      Iain H.
      22 April 2020 @ 09:09
      I applaud RV for posting all views. Keep it up.
    • PD
      Pedro D. | Contributor
      22 April 2020 @ 19:49
      Thanks for your feedback Stewart. The idea is to help Real Vision viewers navigate the policy landscape as it is likely to unfold rather as you might wish it would. And Posen/Krugman are thoughtful and influential, even if you disagree with them. Best regards, Pedro
    • PD
      Pedro D. | Contributor
      22 April 2020 @ 20:00
      But they represent the views driving economic policy is the G7.
    • SM
      Stephane M.
      28 April 2020 @ 10:32
      And what are your views Pedro??? You seems to really agree with them since you don't challenge them in your interviews!!
  • DP
    Duane P.
    20 April 2020 @ 18:32
    Am I just suffering from Dunning Kruger effect or does this guy not know what he's talking about? Seriously. As much as I can't stand watching this, I'm glad RV has these people on so that I'm reminded that they actually and still do exist and that there are people on the other end of the economic perspectives. You need people going against your thesis to make money.
    • PD
      Pedro D. | Contributor
      22 April 2020 @ 19:54
      Hi Duane, people 'like' Adam, if by 'like' you mean holding his general views on the economy, not only exist but are actually the dominant force in economic policy today. So it's worth listening even if you disagree completely.
    • SW
      Stephen W.
      26 April 2020 @ 08:48
      Pedro, does it not concern you that there seems to be such a gap between the dominant forces in economic policy and so many in the world of finance (perhaps you could call them the dominant forces in economic reality)? It seems to me that the globalist policies are baked in, and to hell with anyone who doesn't want to come along for the ride. Even if you take the premise that the end point is inevitable, the speed of travel is still negotiable, yet a pause or slowdown is dismissed with claims of racism or isolationism. Is it any wonder there has been a brewing disconnect between the population and the institutions, which I fear will not end well. The military has long had a mantra of "no man left behind", something our governemnts and policy makers could do well to consider...
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    20 April 2020 @ 23:53
    I've seriously got the warm and fuzzies knowing how many RV subs love Free Markets!!! What an awesome community! Off to have a nice cleansing shower after watching this interview (anti-globalist shower gel in hand).
    • PD
      Pedro D. | Contributor
      22 April 2020 @ 23:41
      Please read this. https://www.cnsnews.com/blog/michael-w-chapman/adl-calls-sen-hawley-apologize-using-words-cosmopolitan-globalist
  • AM
    Alexander M.
    20 April 2020 @ 20:13
    Quoting the Guardian closed it for me. Total Globalist viewpoint. To think he travels so much and spouts this agenda is sickening.
    • PD
      Pedro D. | Contributor
      22 April 2020 @ 23:40
      FYI that term has been appropriate by white supremacist anti-Semites. Please think twice before using it. https://www.cnsnews.com/blog/michael-w-chapman/adl-calls-sen-hawley-apologize-using-words-cosmopolitan-globalist
  • WG
    Wade G.
    20 April 2020 @ 16:13
    With all due respect to RV,... wtf?!? At about the 12 min time stamp when discussing the US policy response, fawning all over it, guest states vast majority of bailout goes to individuals and thru the SBA to small businesses. This is a ludicrous misrepresentation. The $450B earmarked for the Corps will be levered by the Fed at 10 to 1. That's pushing $5T... and the authorities haven't the foggiest idea whether the first loss that Treasury (tax payers) are supposed to eat will be exceeded, and so they'll either have to bailout the bailout, or the Fed will have to eat/paper over losses, making the mockery of their SPV word salad rationalization underpinning the "legality" of this structure explicitly fraudulent, rather than simply implicitly so. Hey Globalist central planners everywhere, you wanna know why people are fed up with you? Because your plans routinely fail, you misrepresent both your intentions and track record routinely, and you're never accountable, ever, for your colossal mistakes. Three quarter of the way thru this video and they're talking blithely about the status of the world and its response to this crisis without acknowledging that central bankers and planners are responsible for our precarious, everything bubble. status going into it. This pseudo professional/scientific schtick from planners and their apologists is hard to stomach.
    • CD
      Claudio D.
      20 April 2020 @ 20:03
      my thoughts exactly
    • JM
      John M.
      20 April 2020 @ 20:35
      Thank you, couldn't have said it better!
    • GO
      Ginette O.
      22 April 2020 @ 07:43
      Amen. the content here is great if you watch it for two weeks and are new, but after 2-3 weeks, you'll realize its: 1. the same topics recycled over and over again 2. hypocritical - and I don't mean good debate, giving the audience every angle of a story, I mean certain people literally saying the opposite of what they said earlier, and denying/intentionally obvlivious to the fact they even said it, and 3. about the same depth and quality/value as FREE content elsewhere Online... if they want to democratize finance, then why do they need my $280 for an entire year up front? Disclosure: I dont think they're actually billing me so ....
    • PD
      Pedro D. | Contributor
      22 April 2020 @ 19:56
      I imagine Adam would be highly critical of the way the PPP has been doled out. That does not change what is truly a consensus view in economics that the crisis required swift and aggressive central bank action.
    • PD
      Pedro D. | Contributor
      22 April 2020 @ 23:40
      Did you know 'globalist' has become used as an anti-Semitic term? FYI. https://www.cnsnews.com/blog/michael-w-chapman/adl-calls-sen-hawley-apologize-using-words-cosmopolitan-globalist
  • WM
    Will M.
    20 April 2020 @ 19:23
    A bit surprised to see such a high negative viewer response. I thought it was ok, not 100% in agreement with Dr Posen's views, but felt it was much better then the Dr Hoenig segment.
    • CD
      Claudio D.
      20 April 2020 @ 20:00
      I voted it down too, the guy is a globalist, the timing of this is just to odd to me; the globalist have been storming up the media these passed couple of days. This is proof that I ain’t cra-cra. 😂
    • PD
      Pedro D. | Contributor
      22 April 2020 @ 23:39
      Cheers.
  • CW
    Charles W.
    20 April 2020 @ 23:31
    concur with Saner K. do NOT waste your time on this drivel. After listening to Posen pontificate, I can only say that my take away is about him vs the subject matter. He is pompus, arrogant, self important and what he discussed is completely lacking in fact.
    • ST
      Simon T.
      21 April 2020 @ 07:35
      Sounds like one of those typical arrogant New Yorkers or DC folk - seriously put him together with Larry Summers, Robert Rubin, Janet Yellen and you add Jim Cramer and Paul Krugman and you have a bunch of kleptocrats together that are nonstop on all tv channels if not on time’s front page ... luckily we don’t have to many of these on RV
    • PD
      Pedro D. | Contributor
      22 April 2020 @ 19:51
      That seems harsh Charles. Did you watch the whole interview? He showed a great deal of humility and humanity--which I know is very real because I spent two years at the Peterson Institute--when asked personal questions about challenges and failures.
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      22 April 2020 @ 22:43
      LOL, it's even better if Simon didn't intentionally put those names together ... thrown in a Posen and you're a perfect 6 for 6!
  • BD
    Ben D.
    22 April 2020 @ 09:30
    What's wierd is that most of the points stated by Adam Posen in capital leaving where they are and heading up the credit quality ladder leaving those at the bottom of the credit quality screwed and the role of globalisation. I get that china puts out economic data that is incorrect and interfered with but china has been opening back up very quickly. However, who is going to be buying he products that have been created by china?
    • PD
      Pedro D. | Contributor
      22 April 2020 @ 20:00
      Totally agree. I feel the Peterson Institute (my ex-employer) is overly sanguine about China's prospects.
  • GH
    Gregory H.
    20 April 2020 @ 12:13
    Still can't give it up on Brexit... the vote was June 2016... let it go...
    • DF
      Dominic F.
      20 April 2020 @ 12:57
      "Let it go" - Rambo First Blood.
    • PD
      Pedro D. | Contributor
      22 April 2020 @ 19:58
      It still hasn't happened though. And won't any time soon.
  • ar
    andrew r.
    20 April 2020 @ 15:51
    Like it or not, government has inserted itself so much into markets, that it is now a topic we all have to take into our analyses. Therefore, RV has a right to have politico-economic speakers on the channel. And, not everyone is going to be Kyle Bass or Jim Bianco. Let's at least be courteous to opposing viewpoints. I disagree with Posen fundamentally also, but clearly the guy was not dogmatic or condescending. Everyone chill out.
    • PD
      Pedro D. | Contributor
      22 April 2020 @ 19:56
      Thank you! You get what I'm trying to do here.
  • HC
    Hahns C.
    20 April 2020 @ 18:09
    Love Dr. Adam Posen and especially Pedro da Costa he is great on knowledge of banking and FED. I think the subject matter is a bit on the high level and fits in the big picture. I believe we are in crisis and we are in urgent need of information to model foretasted impacts to changes to the current situation. Raoul - Thank you for putting all this together.
    • PD
      Pedro D. | Contributor
      22 April 2020 @ 19:55
      Thank you kindly.
  • TZ
    Tibor Z.
    20 April 2020 @ 19:32
    Jesus Christ! Crude oil is in negative territory and there is no breaking news on RV! On what instrument would you trade it? No storing fee and no time limit on sell is the most important criteria! Like ETF's? For long term hold. I heard about the contango. Even crude is negative you can still lose money! It's crazy! Anyone with more experience? Thanks! PS: As you see I never traded oil , therefore I am newbie in this! Take it in consideration. I am interested in EUR because my broker can only buy EUR or GBP instruments in oil. Thanks.
    • DP
      David P.
      20 April 2020 @ 19:49
      RV called oil plays a few weeks ago. I bought EURN on Raoul's suggestion.
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      21 April 2020 @ 01:52
      Harris Kupperman from around 3 weeks ago covered the Tanker (storage) trade in depth.
    • TZ
      Tibor Z.
      21 April 2020 @ 08:03
      David, was it on Essential or RV Plus? Maybe Pro? I have only Essential. I signed up before these mods. Thanks.
    • TZ
      Tibor Z.
      21 April 2020 @ 08:05
      Thank you guys, now I see it. I found it! How did I missed it? :(
    • PD
      Pedro D. | Contributor
      22 April 2020 @ 19:53
      That gives me a great idea for an oil market guest. Thanks!
  • MT
    Mark T.
    20 April 2020 @ 21:05
    I thought it was a perfectly fine interview. I enjoy hearing all viewpoints so really appreciate RV presenting well-rounded people expounding their beliefs and experience.
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      20 April 2020 @ 23:54
      Agreed. The interview was fine. The opinions are important to understand, but sickening to hear never the less.
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      21 April 2020 @ 00:06
      Also Dr Posen seems genuinely like a nice guy. Glad to hear his neck injury hasn't held him back too much in life.
    • PD
      Pedro D. | Contributor
      22 April 2020 @ 19:52
      Much appreciated. I'm new to the platform and welcome the feedback.
  • AD
    Alexander D.
    21 April 2020 @ 12:07
    To round out the discussion, RV should interview the Classicist from the Hoover Institute or the author of Disunited Nations.
    • PD
      Pedro D. | Contributor
      22 April 2020 @ 19:50
      I'm not exactly sure who that is but I'd love to have someone from Hoover. I did a one-week fellowship there where I spent time talking to faculty, and have covered several conferences in Palo Alto. How about Kevin Warsh or John Taylor? Or John Cochrane?
  • wj
    wiktor j.
    22 April 2020 @ 19:21
    Just call a supplier of medical supplies in the EU. This guy cant be more wrong! EU is crumbling apart because of bans of exports. Globalization was/is the sickness. China got too much money to invest different types of weapons. Wuhan flu is one of them.
  • SM
    S M.
    22 April 2020 @ 02:41
    His institution cares So much about Chinese Centered Globalization, global collaboration, International trade, trust and transparency. But not dare to question the country’s sincerity, honesty, credibility of abiding global law and order in globalization effort. Instead of Asking What the hell is went so wrong, who the hell in the chain of globalization didn’t hold its global responsibility in this global pandemic So that the virus brought the world to brink of collapse, his saying that East is trying their utmost best to keep globalization open while US and west is trying to do the opposite. Eww
  • JB
    Jerker B.
    20 April 2020 @ 13:04
    Major RV platform scope creep.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      20 April 2020 @ 14:44
      In what way is this scope creep? Genuinely interested...
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      20 April 2020 @ 15:18
      If you want to know how current policy makers think, even if you just want to anticipate them, you need to watch interviews like this one. Doesn't mean you have to agree with the interviewee.
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      20 April 2020 @ 23:43
      Totally agree The First James M. It’s genuine torture to get through these nauseating interviews, but important to know what we’re all up against.
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      20 April 2020 @ 23:44
      BTW, that’s not a personal slur! Both guys seem like nice people... with somewhat nasty views IMO.
    • DN
      D N.
      21 April 2020 @ 04:44
      Agree with many of the comments above. Necessary to hear this view, if only to know how to anticipate and get ahead of what is likely to happen vs what we would like to happen.
  • DS
    David S.
    20 April 2020 @ 20:22
    Sorry, for the diatribe. You do not have to read it. Black swans always happen. Just because they are unknown, does not mean we should not expect them. It is just common sense to plan for disasters of all types. Individual governments like corporations, small businesses, and families are responsible to plan for black swan events. If they fail, people suffer. There are as many phases as you wish, but four are essential: prior planning, facing the problem, actions toward recovery and preparing for the next black swan. If one reviews most mythologies and religions, I am sure that examples like the pharaoh’s dream of seven good harvests followed by seven poor harvest would be in most of them. Since the entire world did not plan for this pandemic, all of us will suffer and all of us are at fault. In addition to not planning, we created a very fragile economic system dominated by immediate greed – no savings, maximum leverage, just in time everything without regard to any dislocations, sovereign currency created at the whim of the sovereign – some even without a sovereign. The list of hubris go on forever. This is water under the bridge, and probably will be repeated as long as humans inhabit the earth. The first part of facing the problem is just to admit that we all failed. Is that really too hard to admit with all the evidence? Now we are in the middle of facing the problem. The worst part of this phase is the constant blame game which disrupts attempts to solve the problem. It feels good to yell and scream while blaming anyone but ourselves. It is also common sense that this is not productive. If you were smart enough to save money try your best to protect your family and friend’s health until it is over. There is a long way to go. Be safe and try to be part of the solution and do not add to the problem. It is also common sense that strength always comes from balance whether in a portfolio or martial arts. Total globalism is Stupid. Total isolation is Stupid. Total savings is Stupid. Total spending is Stupid. Total government control is Stupid. Total anarchy is Stupid. One viewpoint is Stupid. A knee-jerk reaction to a statement we do not agree with is Stupid. Let’s try to recover without being Stupid. DLS
    • MS
      Matthew S.
      21 April 2020 @ 02:02
      It is pretty telling that Nassim Taleb who is the author of The Black Swan and (from what I understand) the creator of the concept explicitly said that coronavirus was a "white swan" aka something everyone should have been prepared for. He mentioned pandemics in the book as known risks that should be taken into account. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-03-31/nassim-taleb-says-white-swan-coronavirus-pandemic-was-preventable-video?sref=GORibqyI
    • DS
      David S.
      21 April 2020 @ 03:55
      Matthew S. - Thanks for the information. I like the idea of the White Swan. There are certainly more of them. Thanks again. DLS
  • JS
    John S.
    20 April 2020 @ 09:32
    Globalisation is finished.
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      20 April 2020 @ 23:46
      Phase 1 at least.
  • sk
    saner k.
    20 April 2020 @ 23:28
    i just checked the thumbs up and downs before watching , it is 50/84 now.. i think no need to watch and waste time..
  • co
    carlos o.
    20 April 2020 @ 22:10
    China grew in the last 3 months... really? what a waste of 1hr
  • Ev
    Emiel v.
    20 April 2020 @ 16:37
    No just No! This is not about if southern Europe got hit by the virus. It is about the unwillingness of soutern europe to solve the problems in their banks in 2008. We bleeded and took a hit. They went on with life as usual. South europe has less productivity. Less working hours. more government workers and very early retirements. The northern Europe countries are fed up with being on the hook for the extreme euro religion.
    • RS
      Rafael S.
      20 April 2020 @ 18:12
      OECD data, average yearly working hours Greece (2,035), Germany (1,363). Average retirement age Greece (67), Germany (65.6), noted on productivity. I am Spanish and granted we have an army of corrupt incompetents at the helm, but it is very simple, either you believe in the European project or you don't. No half commitments when it suits your boozy budget holidays in the Costa del Sol. I have grown tired of your square headed pseudo-superiority and entitlement, and suspect am not alone. Besides, who will you sell your shitty tulips to? Enjoy your breakfast herrings lad.
    • AB
      Andy B.
      20 April 2020 @ 18:38
      Just a pathetic liar. Northern banks have been bailed out during the previous crisis and never held accountable for their investments by forcing Greek and Irish taxpayers to pay for it. Northern countries are not more productive. They are taking advantage of the cheap euro. The moment the Deutsche mark comes back Germany is done as it will trade way above the dollar. The game in town has always been the same. Give just enough to Southern European to stay in the eurozone but prevent them from leaving. You know what? This time Italians are leaving and let's see where the unemployment rate is in Germany when the deutsche mark skyrockets.
  • mf
    massimo f.
    20 April 2020 @ 18:13
    The world’s largest exporter isn’t dependant on exports?What??
  • JE
    J E.
    20 April 2020 @ 15:17
    I'm not nearly as smart as these guys, but I couldn't disagree more with the proposed solutions for this crisis e.g. with more IMF and Fed interventions. These "solutions" are the the reason we're all here - AGAIN.
    • TR
      Travis R.
      20 April 2020 @ 16:20
      The second half of your response infers that you actually are much smarter then these elitist clowns.
    • TR
      Travis R.
      20 April 2020 @ 16:21
      The second half of your response infers that you actually are much smarter than these elitist clowns.
  • JD
    John D.
    20 April 2020 @ 12:55
    We should not trade with governments that do not support freedom of speech, of religion, sexuality and share our values of liberty, egalitarianism and democracy. Re-distribution of supply chains and jobs globally is the answer to a better, more equal world.
    • ar
      andrew r.
      20 April 2020 @ 15:17
      Liberty and egalitarianism are not compatible. You have to pick one.
    • BG
      Bryce G.
      20 April 2020 @ 15:40
      Yeah this is my major beef with globalization prior to this crisis. They claim to be egalitarian but do so by being willingly deceived by the CCP and its denial of concentration camps, forced organ harvesting, black jails etc. I don't consider myself anti-globalist on principle, but time and time again this contradiction of "a better world" is handwaved.
  • LS
    Lemony S.
    20 April 2020 @ 15:26
    With these guys, who needs "conspiracy theorists." We entered the age of "conspiracy" facts several years ago.
  • PU
    Peter U.
    20 April 2020 @ 13:27
    Couldn't finish it . . . please do not have Dr. Posen back on.
    • as
      amrinderjit s.
      20 April 2020 @ 14:59
      Second that! Total rubbish.
  • DG
    Dave G.
    20 April 2020 @ 14:44
    Another extend and pretend promoter on behalf of the FED. LOL "China not dependent on exports"
  • RA
    Rob A.
    20 April 2020 @ 14:27
    What is this rubbish?
  • PJ
    Peter J.
    20 April 2020 @ 13:29
    If Adam doesn't think that supply chains need to be at least revisited in the light of what has happened with Covid-19, then I think his forecasts for the future are going to be extremely flawed.
  • LB
    LUIS B.
    20 April 2020 @ 12:59
    Doing charity with someone else's money is very easy. Very cheap. Doesn't cost a whole lot... to the person doing the charity that is. I get the compassion argument and also wish that there would be no misery in the world. However, a lot of this economic aid is creating the wrong incentives and breeding more dependency. If you keep giving money to poor people just for being poor then they will stay poor. It is like giving money to beggars, if you keep doing it then you will find more and more beggars around you. Before consuming anything people first need to produce.
  • SC
    Sebastian C.
    20 April 2020 @ 12:15
    What is with all vitriol here?
  • PC
    Paul C.
    20 April 2020 @ 11:12
    Dr Adam Posen gets his news on the UK from the Guardian... Say no more