Another Great ‘Mortgage Meltdown’

Published on
April 9th, 2020
Duration
54 minutes


Another Great ‘Mortgage Meltdown’

The Interview ·
Featuring Logan Mohtashami

Published on: April 9th, 2020 • Duration: 54 minutes

Columnist for HousingWire, Logan Mohtashami of AMC Lending Group sits down with Real Vision's Ash Bennington to discuss the "complete meltdown" he sees in the residential mortgage space during the coronavirus crisis. Mohtashami and Bennington discuss housing prices, the dynamics in the mortgage market in a time of crisis, and the overall lending environment. The pair also touch on the economics of US demography, commercial real estate, and the quantum shifts in retail property in commercial real estate.

Comments

Transcript

  • MR
    Maxim R.
    26 April 2020 @ 19:51
    Amazing overview real estate space Logan, thank you Real Vision
  • TD
    T D.
    21 April 2020 @ 01:27
    I've been looking for more info on housing. This was perfect. Logan was great to listen to!
  • GC
    George C.
    19 April 2020 @ 14:16
    Loved this interview. Informative. Insightful.
  • js
    jeffrey s.
    19 April 2020 @ 06:50
    Any thoughts on what happens when lenders sock away their bailout money and begin to require a 620, + 20% down? And stop handing out home equity loans like candy?
  • KB
    Kirk B.
    9 April 2020 @ 18:32
    Thanks, Real Vision for presenting this interview with Logan, who revealed a broad and deep understanding of the U.S. housing market (albeit perhaps without an in depth appreciation of where it currently fits into macro trends--which is okay; Real Vision presents an abundance of that). As I have expressed in past comments, Real Vision has not provided enough expert material about the real estate and housing markets, and when they have, the interviewees have typically had very narrow perspectives and limited scopes. This interview was a refreshing improvement. Please bring Logan back for follow-up interviews as the Unfolding (or perhaps Refolding) plays out. Please also provide interviews with others knowledgeable about real estate and housing markets and assets, which represent significant allocations within the portfolios of many investors. Editing comments: As I have noted with other interviews, the description of the interview does not accurately present the content--the first and last sentences in particular. The title, although provocative, was even worse, stating the antithesis of the interviewee's views. The chapter titles give a good sense of the content, but the title and description miss badly. While this problem is common for much media trying to grab attention, it should not be so with a premium media source such as Real Vision.
    • AH
      A H.
      9 April 2020 @ 18:52
      I would like to request Bruce Norris to be interviewed. Raoul recently did a bit on his radio show.
    • FG
      Flavio G.
      9 April 2020 @ 19:34
      Great interview with Logan. Real estate is huge and deserves more in-depth analyses. I would love to watch in-depth interviews with the likes of Barry Sternlicht, Jon Gray or Jonathan Pollack.
    • DS
      David S.
      15 April 2020 @ 15:33
      I cannot agree more with your take on the chronic mismatch between RV content titles and the content RV provides. Is this a professional platform of expert presentations or is this an over-dramatized Google feed discussing "20 things you would never guess Brad Pitt and Jennifer Anniston do with their investment portfolio"? The content is awesome! Can RV maybe give the titles a bit of a haircut which might bring more congruence? Warm regards to all. DCS
  • Hv
    Hannah v.
    14 April 2020 @ 23:59
    My comments won’t post. “Unable to perform action.” Is this happening to others?
    • Hv
      Hannah v.
      15 April 2020 @ 00:02
      “A problem occurred while attempting to perform the requested action”
  • AT
    Atul T.
    9 April 2020 @ 22:34
    I live in the San Francisco Bay Area. Feels like this part of the country never fits into the “normal” category of Real Estate. Home prices are higher here than they were during the 2008 housing market crash. If large parts of the working population lose jobs (which they are) I don’t understand how the prices hold up. Inventory will most likely first drop as flippers get out of the market and those who are desperate to sell out houses on the market. I agree though for sometime sales volume should drop dramatically.
    • cp
      carl p.
      13 April 2020 @ 22:07
      Those 3.5% cap rates in SF are gonna bleed indefinitely if tech’s office rental demand subsides.
  • DW
    Dean W.
    12 April 2020 @ 23:36
    Good interview, definitely enjoyed it. Seems unlikely to me that 10 year interest rates will go much higher in the next few years. A good piece of residential property in a good location, particularly once it’s paid off, can provide a good diversification to a portfolio, a fairly reliable income stream under most conditions or a place to live. I have a few friends that have made a decent living buying and renting property.
  • HV
    Hayo V.
    12 April 2020 @ 18:37
    I want what this guy is smoking. This sounded like an infomercial to buy real estate.
  • SP
    Sat P.
    12 April 2020 @ 10:00
    "Numbers are the closest thing we have to the handwriting of God", Logan Mohtashami I think that quote will go down in history!
  • BA
    Bruce A.
    12 April 2020 @ 03:44
    Enjoyed the video. Thank you RV, Ash and Logan.
  • IB
    Igor B.
    11 April 2020 @ 00:21
    Drug pusher.
  • BC
    Burton C.
    10 April 2020 @ 22:47
    No books?... Seriously? A lot of numbers and facts in his head, but I kept hearing the old song of "knows the price of everything and the value of nothing"
  • PS
    Peter S.
    10 April 2020 @ 03:11
    Ash Bennington is a killer interviewer for this format. Give this dude tenure.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      10 April 2020 @ 04:12
      Thanks, Peter. I really enjoy doing these interviews.
    • AO
      Alex O.
      10 April 2020 @ 14:33
      Agreed!
    • TT
      Thomas T.
      10 April 2020 @ 19:48
      Agree. Ash is great interviewer.
  • RS
    Ramsey S. | Contributor
    10 April 2020 @ 18:24
    Thought this was a great interview and offered a far more nuanced view of the drivers of housing supply/demand than I have seen anywhere else. I also thought the contextual differences vs GFC were very helpful.
  • RS
    Riccardo S.
    10 April 2020 @ 13:30
    This guy is delusional. The absolute PRIME Commercial Real Estate is technically in the dumpster. Airports, Stadiums, Hotels, Movie Theatres, Malls, Restaurants... their value for generating cashflow is hugely decreased. And he thinks the residential is going to recover?!? Run for your lives
  • sb
    sandeep b.
    10 April 2020 @ 03:29
    really knowledgable guest! too bad, the host kept fishing for "bearish" news and data sets, but just couldn't find them to support the title. The doomsday/bearish view of RV is getting old, quickly.
    • AB
      Andrew B.
      10 April 2020 @ 09:45
      Hmmm. I think bearish describes the housing market perfectly. Who can afford a down payment after months of no income, not being able to pay your mortgage, and what maybe 10 to 15% unemployment? What is the labor force participation rate going to be after this FC? This is gonna get extremely messy.
  • JS
    John S.
    10 April 2020 @ 01:47
    Nice job, guys. Keep it up.
  • RA
    Robert A.
    9 April 2020 @ 17:56
    Excellent curation here Ash and RV! RV has been a little “light” on RE coverage, IMO, and since RE is such a big part of many people’s investments and the social fabric of the country it is great to see this excellent piece posted. Enjoyable and easy to watch along with some nice takeaways. Classic RV curation and production!
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      10 April 2020 @ 01:19
      Thanks, Robert. Logan is a great guest. I tried to curate this one in a way that was especially practical, for exactly the reasons you mentioned. —A
  • hb
    henry b.
    9 April 2020 @ 21:07
    Ash ------- I know you check all your feedback. I have to compiment you on such a great interview with Logan. I've been a member since 2015 & really appreciate your daily hard work & efforts on behalf of Real Vision! Keep it up! Henry Bauld
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      10 April 2020 @ 01:16
      Henry, Absolutely. Thank you for saying so. We appreciate the opportunity to keep creating content remotely during this difficult time. Stay safe. —A
  • DT
    David T.
    9 April 2020 @ 23:03
    The dude has strange microeconomic view. Some charts would been good, too many numbers and dates.
  • SM
    S M.
    9 April 2020 @ 22:42
    15 million people lost their job in last 3 weeks already. 25-30 million job loss is expected. How is that Gonna effect Housing?
  • RP
    Richard P.
    9 April 2020 @ 14:15
    I liked this but definitely feel it was cherry picked data to suit a mortgage lender. Even if they don’t crash or decrease there’s not real possible way they can outperform wages and inflation anymore. I’d rather see data over 50 - 100 years
    • AT
      Atul T.
      9 April 2020 @ 22:37
      Frankly better if presentations were made a little more objectively.
  • TE
    Tito E.
    9 April 2020 @ 06:57
    I cant see any scenario from right here where house prices (everywhere) don't fall considerably. In real and even nominal terms.
    • TE
      Tito E.
      9 April 2020 @ 07:04
      ...not that thats any bad thing
    • AT
      Atul T.
      9 April 2020 @ 22:35
      Agree with you. Unfortunately (or fortunately) prices will fall. Folks that are in the brokerage and mortgage loan industry are the ones that will hurt the most in the short term.
  • jR
    james R.
    9 April 2020 @ 21:56
    Harry Dent disagrees in a big way on where age demographics are wrt home buying.
  • EN
    Elizabeth N.
    9 April 2020 @ 06:55
    Where’s the “meltdown” that’s described in the show notes? Cuz I didn’t get that vibe at all from this interview. Guest said housing market wasn’t overheated going into this and to not expect GFC-like declines of 50%+ in home prices. Then again, asking a lender if real estate is going to be ok is like asking a barber if you need a haircut.
    • MH
      M.F. H.
      9 April 2020 @ 13:27
      Don't quite follow this either. Maybe they forgot to add the question mark.
    • sk
      saner k.
      9 April 2020 @ 21:37
      Totally agree with Elizabeth..
  • TW
    Thomas W.
    9 April 2020 @ 18:56
    We are at the end of an international 40 year bubble created by continuous reduction of interest rates. Once you get to the zero bound there is nowhere to go but up. House prices may remain stable but their real terms value will drop in some cities by up to 80%. London for instance is filled with unoccupied foreign owned property. That is supply that will all be released when the govt monetises the debt (that is what they are keeping their capital away from). I have no doubt that a sizeable new generation of eco home building will be a party of which ever New Deal is created. A mixture of rent controls, inflation and higher interest rates will enable millennials to save, for significantly cheeper property, once wages eventually catch up.
    • PD
      Peter D.
      9 April 2020 @ 21:16
      Real Vision should interview you. The real estate and mortgage industries, and analysts/media that cover them, are filled with cheerleaders. This market is coming down. Big time. Reduced immigration from the closed borders (which will last years); jobs losses and resulting defaults, and the crushing effects of this crisis on seniors (who will be rushing to unload properties) will cripple real estate. We will not see its previous highs in real terms for decades. But finding someone who will say the obvious isn't easy.
  • FA
    Fisseha A.
    9 April 2020 @ 21:14
    Really knowledgeable guy (about the housing market) and I enjoyed the interview but I don’t see how the title was rationalized.
  • JR
    Josh R.
    9 April 2020 @ 19:29
    Any updates on Australian real estate?
  • NR
    Nathan R.
    9 April 2020 @ 13:24
    Great conversation. Can I make a request that RV produce more pieces of this type? Specifically, a subset of tactical pieces that delve into the structure or operation of different market segment or asset classes. The “Here’s how they are structured, how they function and who generally move them.” Pieces that dive bomb specific targets down a level from the 30,000 ft area bombing. Sorry, finishing a book on the Eighth Air Force.... Perhaps that’s a bit too boring or granular but if you don’t know how the house is wired, it will seem like a pretty light show, or you get electrocuted. Love mixed metaphors.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      9 April 2020 @ 14:28
      Nathan, Good point. I like that idea. Thanks for commenting. —A
    • CW
      CC W.
      9 April 2020 @ 18:02
      I like the idea. RE is such a big industry in the US and around the world. So is mortgage lending. Would be great to get more details on this. I think RV has done a good job in certain sectors--GOLD, BiTCOIN, etc. But some more "traditional" sectors should be covered more frequently and in detail.
  • DP
    Duane P.
    9 April 2020 @ 17:37
    This guy is praising the conservatorship of Fannie and Freddie and then says that we might have wanted to look at curtailing credit in the housing market. Can he possibly be this naive of how much Fannie and Freddie have propped up the market? He also needs to talk to a macro guy. He seems completely oblivious to what is unraveling economically right before his eyes. This is the problem many times with being entrenched in your own sector. You start myopically talking up your own sector without a macro understanding of how your industry connects with everything else. He basically sounds like a sales guy trying to pitch a mortgage portfolio.
    • CW
      CC W.
      9 April 2020 @ 17:59
      He gave his opinion on what he thinks and provided data to back it up. Whether he is right or wrong time will tell. I don't see how he is trying to "sell" anything throughout the interview.
  • CW
    CC W.
    9 April 2020 @ 17:57
    Good interview. Would like to get an update from Mr. Mohtashami in a month or so just to understand the inside take on US RE and mortgage lending industry.
  • DL
    Dan L.
    9 April 2020 @ 15:43
    At 16:30-16:40 Logan discussed the strategy that sellers need to "take their home off the market" til this scenario abates. However, what if this goes on for 6 months... i.e.) Where we have sellers essentially "stockpiling" homes in inventory with a hope that putting it back on the market when things are "back to normal" will yield a better sales price? I'm currently renting right now, having sold my home last year to move to a new location. So, I'm liquid and looking to buy. However, I don't see how demand can match the supply that is going to exist later this year. Isn't there essentially going to be a "supply glut?" I understand the intention of the Fed/Govt is to keep rates low, but in real terms I see the overall economy scrambling to find USD as the year continues (in addition to the rest of the world). While the exotic products and leverage may not be as bad as it was in 2006, my smell test tells me it's going to be a year or two before we see real estate begin to rise again.
  • JD
    James D.
    9 April 2020 @ 15:34
    Should have named this video "The Refolding." I watched Raoul's presentation yesterday and it makes this extremely difficult to process. I think it the mortgage/real estate market might need a little more time to unfold.
  • FG
    Flavio G.
    9 April 2020 @ 14:04
    Good interview. Loved the Genghis-Khan-meeting wish. I find Khan a truly fascinating character too.
  • RW
    Richard W.
    9 April 2020 @ 12:49
    As a general principle I’m not sure that inexpert comments about the disease progress (eg summer months will be fine, to paraphrase) should be left in unqualified by the interviewer
  • JE
    Jon E.
    9 April 2020 @ 11:41
    Insane home prices and rent are the direct policy of the federal reserve when they create credit and lower interest rates. Given the current situation, how is this not a bubble? There is an elegant solution... deflation. Lower prices fixes all the problems of affordability... and even addresses the wealth gap for those in the real economy... but it’s clear Fed policy is still in pursuit of high prices at any cost.
  • JC
    John C.
    9 April 2020 @ 09:52
    Excellent video. Really enjoyed this and got a lot out of it. Need to bring him back
  • AT
    Alez T.
    9 April 2020 @ 06:29
    “Send checks” whoa! These NEO cons are the problem.