Comments
Transcript
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JPGreat interview! Question: as an individual investor, what is the safest way to buy bitcoin or cryptocurrency. Any thoughts on the index fund NYXBT ?
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MSBtc is a bigger bubble than SPY
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JPWhen more crypto shows?..it's been a long time since some new Crypto content.
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RRDan Tapiero mentioned - DASH. To correct- DASH has Chainlocks - and is actually more secure than Bitcoin.
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SHInteresting interview thanks guys, also you need to get Charles Hoskinson on from IOHK he is insanely knowledgeable guy who is creating a next generation platform called Cardano.
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JHPeople have to stop using the word currency & money in the same context. They are different.
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DPGreat interview. To me the macroeconomic of BTC and other alt-coins will be crucial to adoption and use. Dan mentioned, really just in passing, that he felt BTC was deflationary. Wish there was a bit more discussion on that topic. I don't have a firm view - though lean towards BTC wide adoption as leading to pockets of really strong inflation. I think evolution of BTC in the long run will be dependent upon whether it is inflationary or deflationary and, importantly, against what currencies / other assets. I've had this discussion with many friends and there isn't agreement. Given it's finite and velocity should increase exponentially, I understand the long run "deflationary" argument. But need more convincing...
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memeanwhile, in the crypto sphere: "cricket, cricket"
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VUBased on our research, BTC correlation is between -0.4 and +0.4 depending on the asset class you're comparing. But, none of them are zero as per the interview. Some are close to zero. Bottom line a very good hedge and store of value for a global macro trade.
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MOMasterful interview...impeccable segways, spot-on questions, unbiased inquiry. DTap is top 3 interviewer on RV. Please do more macro x crypto work :)
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HHCan we get the professors on who said price surge was driven by market manipulation? University of Texas Professor John Griffin and Ohio State University’s Amin Shams. Griffin and Shams, who have updated a paper they first published in 2018, say the transactions rely on Tether, a widely used digital token that is meant to hold its value at $1.
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GE"Did you put a tie on for that?"
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JLDan Morehead never ceases to entertain, impress, and inform. He is the best evangelist out there due to his ability to articulate in a direct way, all of the many nuances of crypto. I can never get enough. I still have my doubts about Bitcoin vs. the field. Good thoughts on Libra.
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SVSo storage costs are zero, yes. It's the transactional costs to miners in One that you need to worry about. Be prepared to stand in line, with high fractional miner fees, when there are large movements, liquidity events. It's like Hotel California.
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SSBulgaria has bought $BTC as part of their country financial reserve."Back in May 2017, the Southeast European Law Enforcement Centre (SELEC) issued a press release that the country has over 200,000 BTC (around $2.1 billion) as opposed to just 40 tons in gold (around $1.8 billion)." https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bulgaria-has-more-bitcoin-holdings-than-gold-reserves-201907250249
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SVThe elephant in the room, interoperability. With the rise of supra national digital currencies the world doesn't have to use Bitcoin. People can use whatever they wants so long as the unit of account has liquidity. the future for investors is The Internet of Value using the open source Interledger Protocol. Market makers can act as connectors in a currency agnostic, path finding algorithm for transmitting value. It supersedes any national CBDCs, Bitcoin, ETH, XRP, etc. because it connects them all without counterparty risk. It enables micro payments and liquidity pooling. It's as revolutionary as TCP/IP as a protocol for bridging walled gardens.
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SVWhat investors should be worried about with any consensus protocol (like Bitcoin) is a collapse in consensus. If China decided to nationalize ASIC mining and performed a 51% attack, even if a chain reorganization was unsuccessful, there would be mass exodus in relative value. Until these ecosystems are self sustaining in the entirety of their cradle to grave supply chain they will be vulnerable. when wafer manufacturers, utilities, and workers, get paid in digital assets, and those resources are sufficiently global redundant, there is significant vulnerability. It could even be the world's largest honey pot. How's that for FUD.
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SVA reserve currency is as anachronistic as centralization. Hegemony only occurs with leverage (force), not utility so Libra will likely not be reserve either. If you have an interoperable standard, why do you need a reserve if there are market makers? Obsolete thinking. The true network for reserve status is ILP not a single ledger, especially of the entrant costs continue to rise (no longer 1 CPU = 1 vote). Fungibility between networks (a network of networks) is the true secret.
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SVIn suspect Mr. Morehead knows allot more about blockchain business opportunities than this video suggests. Bitcoin was the first, largest network effect, but it's not the last. Real returns will occur for those that solve real problems, like cross border transfers, micro payments, digital asset collateralized equities (stable sticks with oracles). The future is blazingly bright but it's not all Bitcoin, it's all about utility.
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MGMaker and Compound and most of 'defi' is built on top of Ethereum. It's a shame that was not made clear.
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AKGreat show, a lot of breakdown points in just 50 minutes. I think people who are skeptical of the Bitcoin space really should see this video. Both Dan Tapeiro and Dan Morehead are very calm, collected and rational. The lending space and DeFI are very interesting, but they are also based on third party custody in many instances. I think and important ethos of Bitcoin is not your keys not your coins, people should not forget this when entering the DeFi space.
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IOJust mentioned proof of stake at the end but failed to expand on it. And implications for bitcoin. I am not going to say that bitcoin is just a proof of concept before I get bunch of thumbsdown.
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CTGave up on Dan. Pumping losers like XRP and Ethereum at this time shows he's totally out of the loop or just wanting to dump his bags. ETH and XRP? Yeah. I'd rather hold fiat... and definitely would rather 100x hold gold vs those premined centralized scams. BTC was used as a bait for this show, so thumbs down. This is not about Bitcoin.
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KREven computer science professors in American universities confidently teach their students that Bitcoin is fraud. I mean its one thing to have a bias/reservations but they are literally discouraging people from buying. Some people are just so full of themselves
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dwI remember listening to Raoul say that with the creation of Quantum computing all digital currencies could potentially be hacked. Would love to hear the new argument against this. And I love it when bitcoiners call it digital gold. You guys do need a marketing team if that's what you're calling it now.
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DHI find it amusing to hear that millennials "get it" and boomers don't. Most of the IT we use daily was created by boomers. And they know blockchain is just another database.
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OKFor me there has been lately a quite a pro bitcoin tendency among realvision guests. I think it would help to ballance it with views e.g. from Jim Rickards, Nouriel Roubini and Erik Townsend.
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CBStop it with all this Bitcoin nonsense. It's a fascinating time in the traditional markets.
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ATYou should ask yourself why Xi is so excited about blockchain. Because a transparent ledger with zero privacy features allows for complete surveillance of all financial transactions. Bitcoin lacks fungibility and privacy by default. It's a surveillance coin.
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PGVery interesting topic and conversation! I'm still struggling to see the day-to-day use cases for the general public for now (beyond transferring money in emerging markets as mentioned)...In the end, if Facebook and other companies/associations are all working on their own crypto/digital currency and related network in their own silos, then it's only a minor improvement over the current fiat system I'm optimistic for the future, so looking forward to see Dan Morehead more often!!
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EBI about spit my lunch out when he mentioned XRP.
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NSThere is no “blockchain” or “crypto”. The word is... “BITCOIN”!
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THA hour full of inaccuracies. For example, digital identity is bitcoin-inspired, but it is not require bitcoin-the-currency. Cross-border payments can utilize bitcoin-inspired distributed ledgers, but don't really require bitcoin. Etc. etc. Furthermore, Dan mentioned bitcoin, ethereum and XRP as the top-three cryptos. Two of them are essentially frauds. Ethereum has failed its promise to scale up and needs a rewrite, which essentially renders the currency worthless. XRP on the other hand is a classic pump-and-dump fraud. Good luck Investing on either. Bitcoin is not much different. It's just an uber-cool demo of a mathematically created digital collectible, but not much else. The real value is in the follow-on inventions of bitcoin. Anyone who wants to invest in Crypto, should have a good look at those inventions.
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CBDid he just compare owning Bitcoin to owning Apple shares? Would love to see the cash flow comparison behind owning a speculative asset/BTC and an actual business Wow, shill much. Again, bigger fool theory on steroids. Blockchain Technology again is being confused with Bitcoin and value held. How do you quantify the value of BTC which is different to the value of the tech. A friend of mine sold his car for BTC at the all time high, and held on thinking it would go higher. store of value? I think not. In 2 years the BTC value depreciated faster than his car would have. BTC for crossborder transactions? You could use USDT or any other stable coin for that without the value change risk. Most people are holding/hodling their BTC (reference to Pizza purchase for 10K BTC) so that this does not happen to them. Everyone's hoping it will climb higher. BTC as global reserve? Nope. there has to be some sort of regulation and ability to reverse transactions if lets say an elderly person sends it to the wrong address (basic example). The above said. I have bought, hodled and traded BTC and other coins and made ridiculous gains but was done as pure speculation which is why there are so many people trying to load the bus with people buying it. ie: shilling. Kitco and many others are doing the same for Gold/silver daily but at the very least you can sell gold/silver to a tech company to use on a circuit board. BTC, think not.
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OBafter this interview i really want to short the f* out of bitcoin.
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scOut of many good points, four key points stuck out to me about the future of money: 1) The U.S. dollar has devalued by 45X in less than 80 years. That is, you now need $45 to purchase what it used to take $1. This makes sense since average price of house in 1930 used to be around $6,000 and now is $320,000, or 53X: In 1930, ounce of gold was $19.50/ounce. $100 of gold now costs $7,500 for the same amount, 75X. 2) Number of hedge funds buying and holding a small amount of bitcoin as a hedge is increasing and will only increase over the coming years, further limiting the available BTC in the market as years proceed. 3) Number of outlying nations buying and holding a small amount of bitcoin as a hedge is increasing and will only increase over the coming years, adding further to "hodled" bitcoin as years proceed. 4) The disharmony and discontent among the populace of the world, as witnessed in the riots of Venezuela, Chile, Argentina, Bolivia, Hong Kong, parts of Africa, Eastern Europe, Middle East, and even in the U.S., is only increasing, not decreasing. The dislike and drive to get away from the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency is also only increasing. All this uncertainty will only drive people to hedge further into owning more gold and bitcoin. I am quickly turning from skeptic to believer.
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JWNot sure why this interview suddenly brought out the 'never bitcoiners' :-) Everyone entitled to their own opinion of course. I liked the interview - it went over the multiple use cases for bitcoin as well as touched upon most aspects of why the ecosystem plays such an important role in the acceptance and continuous development of the network (BTC is really only a by-product of this). I am also of the opinion that bitcoin is here to stay. Interesting that Dan supports XRP and Ethereum as well. Would be good to her him expand on that in a follow-up perhaps.
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MFToo much bitcoin hype here lately for my taste, would prefer more sector deep-dives instead. Bring back Paul Hodges et al.
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SR"So why do smart guys still not get it?" - probably because they understand no major Government is going to give up control of their country's currency. Its the one big question no one ever seems to address, why?
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ddanother sh*tcoin video... thanks RV for your obsession with this ponzi scheme
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ZHDan - super interesting. Thanks for taking the time. Did you say you owned 250,000 BTC???? Is that about 1.5% of all BTC outstanding? Curious as to how much market power you feel you have. Are there folks who own a lot more than you?
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BNEpic, The Dan “squared” interview! Both great and, Fantastic interview! Thank You to the Dans & RV for the interview, info and up to date insight! Great interview. B
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PGLoved it! More from Dan please :)
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KSThe bulgarian gov has the largest known gov amount of bitcoin. But I would assume other governments are buying.
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MTThis was pretty good content. I, personally, want even more Bitcoin content but appreciate those that have had enough already. Please continue to include the word BITCOIN in the title on all future articles/videos to ensure the possibility of steadfast avoidance! And keep them coming! We won't be able to tell which were good and which were silly for several years. It is tough to keep the content comprehensible for the uninitiated, while maintaining technical accuracy. Many comments allude to this as though it invalidates all the other content value. Pretty snobby.
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RMThe haters and the lovers waxing philsophical (refering to the comments). Sigh. Any traders out there? Anyone ever hear of position sizing? A very small position of gbtc is tradeable for indivual traders not trying to jam colossal amounts of money into it. A position size a 30th of my normal sizing produces enough beta per trade.
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SLHow about having Alex Saunders over for a deep dive into defi and the broader space of cryptocurrencies? Would be interesting, informative and educative in moving beyond just bitcoin and open the mind to possibilities this space has to offer. (and, why not, well argumentatively break some btc myths)
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TJWow! Brilliant discussion from the two Dan's and so insightful! One of the very best videos of recent times on RV and there has been plenty of competition in my opinion. With the primary institutional investor obstacles now resolved, it is hard to see why most investors will not in due course insist upon exposure to BTC purely for diversification reasons, let alone the asymmetric risk reward argument. Thank you RV for airing this priceless video.
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PLIt is important to point out, Bitcoin is the real innovation, this is where the useful engineering takes place. On the other hand, Ethereum at this stage is equivalent to a classical database with a few spares, and Ethereum can't be anything else, this is just an incentive issue.
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GEWould be interested in hearing opinions on fintech conference
DAN MOREHEAD: Yeah, so I think the reason I'm excited about Bitcoin is when you have a disruptive technology, they call it a category killer. Bitcoin's a serial killer. It's going to go through 40 or 50 different industries, well storage, cross border money movement, property titles, voting rights, identity. Those are all the biggest use cases on earth.
DAN TAPIERO: Good afternoon, everybody. I'm Dan Tapiero of DTAP Capital, GBI, Gold Bullion International. Today, I'm happy to be here with an old friend, one of the few guys with a strong macro background who is in the Bitcoin world, Dan Morehead, and I have to say we've known each other probably 20 years, so this might be a little lighthearted chat as well. Now, Dan was the first traditional macro fund manager to identify the Bitcoin opportunity.
Just so the audience understands, what that means is that the macro world that we're in is filled with some of the greatest investors of all time, George Soros, Julian Robertson, who we both worked for and Dan was the sole manager in this space to identify it and execute on it in that world. Of course, others followed. Some of our contemporaries as well. I think generally, as a macro guy and looking out at the Bitcoin world, Dan is one of the guys on the Mount Olympus. I know I said that the other day and you chuckled a little bit, but from our perspective, the guys who saw the opportunity but didn't execute and transact on it, Dan really lead the way. With great pleasure, I introduced Dan Morehead. Dan.
DAN MOREHEAD: It's great to be here. Thanks.
DAN TAPIERO: Yeah. Why don't we just talk about that initial moment? There's a lot of-- you've done a few interviews and I've watched them and I don't want to go over the same stuff like, what was your Bitcoin moment, but in a way, having your macro background, what in that allowed you to see that Bitcoin was a great opportunity?
DAN MOREHEAD: Yeah. In macro, we're always traveling around the world looking for asymmetric opportunities. You put $1 in, you might be able to make five or 10, but you can only risk one. There are a few those that come along. Every three, four years there's something like Russian privatization or Argentine farmland or Tesla Motors. There's a trade like that that comes up. That's been a fun experiences. Tiger and my career before that, looking around for those things, and then in 2011, my brother introduced me to Bitcoin. It took a while to get my head around it.
There was only a few things on the white paper and Wikipedia was like a half a page. I thought, oh, yeah, that's really great idea. I hope it happens, but didn't really do much about it. The funny bit is that was back when they were giving away free Bitcoins. Gavin Andreessen, who was the chief scientist of Bitcoin had a thing called the Bitcoin Faucet and all you had to do is log in and get free bitcoins, that's how fuzzy that thing was.
Then in 2013, Pete Berger of Fortress and Mike Novogratz, who I'd worked with and gone to school with, called and said, hey, we're starting to think about Bitcoin, you want to have a coffee and talk about it? After about an hour, my head was starting to spin. I basically just focused on it for the next three or four months, didn't do anything else other than read about Bitcoin and I can't believe it's the biggest trade of our generation, so I'm all in.
DAN TAPIERO: Yeah, but how did you-- I understand you did the digging, but there are a lot of macro guys just as smart, they didn't quite make that adjustment, they couldn't quite see it. Bitcoin to me is different than those other macro opportunities because you could still use a traditional macro framework for understanding it. Yes, a symmetric risk reward etc., but what was it that pushed you over?
DAN MOREHEAD: Yeah, so I think the reason I'm excited about Bitcoin is when you have a disruptive technology, they call it a category killer. Bitcoin's a serial killer. It's going to go through 40 or 50 different industries, well storage, cross border money movement, property titles, voting rights, identity, and those are all the biggest use cases on earth. If you think about somebody who invents like a new medical device, and there's only 100,000 people on earth that have that condition, it's pretty kept on with that medical device's worth.
This is going after the biggest things, 300 billion of electronic payments, remittance. Well storage, gold is your well where $7 trillion market cap, and even currency, currency is 100 trillion market cap. All of the cryptocurrencies combined are a quarter of a trillion. That's the leverage I'm talking about, you're starting with such a small base against an enormous opportunity. Even if blockchain fails that 10 of those use cases, there's still 40 other use cases it's really good at and that's why I think it's the trade of a generation.
DAN TAPIERO: Why do so many smart guys still resist it? I can go through various examples, while one of my old mentors even went on TV a month or two ago and said, I just don't-- a guy in his late 60s, very well known, I just don't get it. I want no part of it.
DAN MOREHEAD: Yeah. One of the rationales is we already have a currency, the US dollar. Why do we need to currency? My argument to that would be yes, you and I live in the United States, we have solid financial system, we have a currency that only depreciates 90% over the last 80 years, so it's not as bad as some of the other currencies out there. But keep in mind there's 200 currencies on earth and bitcoin's just to a one. There's a lot of people that are--
DAN TAPIERO: But a global macro guy should get that. What's stopping them? You know the crowd? Our old crowd.
DAN MOREHEAD: 6 billion people live in countries with really crappy currencies. They vastly benefited by using Bitcoin or another cryptocurrency. Sometimes, I think people just resent something that's an asymmetric trade that they missed and maybe this is a bit of a West Coast, East Coast thing. Like every Lyft driver in California is talking crypto and Wall Street people are probably more negative than people on the West Coast.
DAN TAPIERO: Right, and that's where traditionally the financial macro guys have been and are so. That's interesting. Is that also an age divide thing?
DAN MOREHEAD: Yeah. I think there's a big age divide, obviously, millennials have grown up, VenMo and everything and totally living on their phone and mobile money makes sense to them. Then the older generation might be a bit more reactionary. A good example of the negative opinion from very famous investors, Warren Buffett has been a fantastic investor but on Bitcoin, he's been super negative. He likes to call it rat poison.
DAN TAPIERO: He's still rat poisoning.
DAN MOREHEAD: I think he caught up, but at least a year ago, he's still doing it. My point would be when he first said that, Bitcoin was trading at 200 bucks, it's now at 10,000. I don't think it's 100% certainty that Bitcoin was going to go up at $200. Even here, I don't think it's 100% certain it's going to go up, but on a risk adjusted basis, it's a fantastic trade. Because if you say it's a bad trade at 200, and it actually goes to 10,000, you needed to be 99% sure it was going to go to zero when it was at 200 to have it not be a rational trade.
That's my view, is it's speculative, it could certainly go down. It's had some periods where it goes down 80% in six months, but it could go up 10x, 50x, numbers you just don't see in any other asset. That's the asymmetry that I think makes it a great trade.
DAN TAPIERO: Yeah. People in the space talk a lot about adoption. That's why I was asking you about when can we get some of these smarter guys imagine -- Xi, President Xi of China comes on TV and he says, well, we're going to be the leaders in blockchain technology then goes up 30%. I don't like attributing news to movement in Bitcoin. I think that's the trade. That was a very supportive comment, when-- we talked about adoption a lot in the space, what's going to be that Netscape moment where guys go, aha?
DAN MOREHEAD: Yeah. A common thing for the negative people on Bitcoin is like, hey, there's no killer app of Bitcoin. There's really two answers to that. The first half ironic answer is well, bitcoin's the killer app of Bitcoin. It's already storing 200 billion of wealth. It's been doing a