Cecchini: “It’s a Mad World”

Published on
August 18th, 2020
Duration
44 minutes

Gold and Silver: The Least Burnt Trees in a Wildfire


Cecchini: “It’s a Mad World”

The Interview ·
Featuring Peter Cecchini

Published on: August 18th, 2020 • Duration: 44 minutes

Peter Cecchini, founder of AlphaOmega Advisors, LLC, joins Real Vision managing editor, Ed Harrison, to examine the state of global macro that leads into a discussion of the recent precious metals bull market. Cecchini and Harrion break down the lack of efficacy low-interest rates have in stimulating the economy and the knock-on effect that environment is having on gold and silver. Looking at the relationship between small-cap and large-cap equities, interest rates, and the political environment, Cecchini presents his view that these factors all combine to drive precious metals markets. He also explains why his constructive view on gold is not based on the belief that the U.S. Dollar will collapse, but rather that gold serves as a substitute for US Treasurys – especially as rates approach the zero bound. Cecchini also shares his thoughts on gold and silver alternatives like platinum, palladium, and bitcoin. Filmed on August 13, 2020.

Comments

Transcript

  • SG
    Sashi G.
    25 August 2020 @ 07:52
    I do not buy his thesis of why gold is desired in a deflationary environment. He says fear of interest rates rising and avoiding bond duration risk and convexivity drives investment to gold. This is basically the same as fearing inflation that he talked about the link between inflation and gold (avoiding treasuries for the same reason). I did not get a clear view of his investment thesis/ideas from this. The demand for gold as an alternative to holding treasuries is not really new and is well known. He makes an elaborate case about it, but this is known.
  • BC
    Burton C.
    19 August 2020 @ 02:09
    Come on guys Real Vision needs to be more professional than this. Allowing the guest speaker to use an area mike vs a lapel mike degrades the professionalism.
    • SW
      Scott W.
      21 August 2020 @ 19:02
      Extraordinary nitpick
  • WM
    William M.
    19 August 2020 @ 21:46
    In that classic comedy, It's a mad mad mad world, the treasure they seek is below a big W! So maybe this was just Peter's way of giving us the secret code to the economic recovery!
  • JN
    Jack N.
    19 August 2020 @ 18:59
    Another great interview with Ed Harrison. Gold is clearly beginning to be thought of as a way to store and transact between local currencies...just like it always has been prior to USD standard. Hold Gold.
  • JK
    John K.
    19 August 2020 @ 18:44
    Just wanna say just be side someone’s framework isn’t super technical doesn’t mean it’s wrong lol. It’s worked for him his entire career or he wouldn’t be here
  • SD
    Steve D.
    19 August 2020 @ 17:49
    I think I've figured out that when a guest doesn't bow at the altar of crypto they receive an unwarranted proportion of thumbs down.
  • JJ
    John J.
    18 August 2020 @ 16:05
    Very superficial and repetitive discussion with little about gold.
    • PJ
      Paul J.
      19 August 2020 @ 11:17
      Agreed.
  • DB
    Daniel B.
    19 August 2020 @ 06:03
    What would be the likely short term impact on gold prices if there is an increase in taxes after the election?
  • VK
    Vipin K.
    18 August 2020 @ 08:35
    Please 1) Make your interviews shorter as there are a lot of repetitions and too long 2) Have transcripts so one can go through faster 3) Its a Feedback
    • EW
      Edmond W.
      18 August 2020 @ 12:48
      good shit
    • MD
      Mike D.
      18 August 2020 @ 15:41
      hella good shit
    • OS
      Owen S.
      18 August 2020 @ 16:43
      agree that RV should make shorter and more succinct interviews
    • VM
      Veliko M.
      19 August 2020 @ 04:32
      Disagree. Compressing the material will mean people just dump the "executive summary" version of their work without the underlying causes. MSM finance coverage provides enough soundbites already. Real analysis and understanding takes time and requires effort.
  • BC
    Burton C.
    19 August 2020 @ 02:39
    I want to be polite, but I don't know how to deliver a message any other way than to just say it. I found this 44 min a waste of my time. Why? Because it was so shallow. Specifically the commentary on gold and silver. It was obvious to me that Peter is a latecomer to the gold story. Contrast his initial statement of "I've never been a gold bug" which attempts to put distance between him and those who have studied it for years against Kiril Sokoloff's deep understanding of what gold is and what gold does. If Peter's understanding of gold is that it is just an "alternative to US Treasuries which allows us to stay within the existing framework" his knowledge is quite superficial. I suggest that he has not studied gold and silver with the "rigor" he claims.
  • JS
    Jon S.
    18 August 2020 @ 22:34
    This is what I come RV for! Love it!
  • ER
    Ernesto R.
    18 August 2020 @ 21:08
    Excellent informative and market analysis thanks to both
  • AC
    Andrew C.
    18 August 2020 @ 20:38
    Great interview, thoughtful insights
  • DG
    Dave G.
    18 August 2020 @ 19:48
    Excellent very informative video. I think the down votes are from the gold bugs that didn't like his gold comments but definitely a must watch video.
  • WG
    Wade G.
    18 August 2020 @ 17:19
    I'm really glad I ignored the up/down votes and listened to this. I thought it was excellent--very information-dense discussion of (especially) treasury market and gold. It may be terribly useful to think of gold as a substitute for treasuries--I think about them both all the time but not explicitly as suggested. The nuance of low rates used to discount cash flows and impact on valuations and the "all things equal" or not at all equal discussion represents a profound insight. THIS. is why I'll sit out equities at these valuations. That explicit history of treasuries bumping up in yields and impact on risk assets also helpful. I'd like to thank the guest and ask that RV bring him back, hopefully often.
  • TJ
    Terry J.
    18 August 2020 @ 16:04
    Excellent insights and market analysis gentlemen. I both enjoyed your debate, and learnt so much. Thank you.
  • RW
    Richard W.
    18 August 2020 @ 10:33
    This was a great interview with a very knowledgeable guy. Thanks.
  • FL
    Fabrizio L.
    18 August 2020 @ 07:55
    this is a good one, thanks!
  • RO
    Robert O.
    18 August 2020 @ 06:19
    Do you believe that yield curve control will be formally announced in the September Fed meeting? It seems that functionally they have already been practicing this without stating it publicly. If the Fed then is successful in creating at least 2% inflation, then gold and silver should have continued support as an alternative to treasuries; and since the gold and silver markets are much smaller than the bond market, a small shift in investments should generate an outside move in the precious metal market. This was pointed out quite nicely in Grant Williams' presentations: Nobody Cares. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qnZHMmCjpQ8