Cycling into Recession? Understanding the Growth Rate Cycle

Published on
December 12th, 2019
49 minutes

Cycling into Recession? Understanding the Growth Rate Cycle

The Interview ·
Featuring Lakshman Achuthan

Published on: December 12th, 2019 • Duration: 49 minutes

Lakshman Achuthan, COO and co-founder of ECRI, sits down with Real Vision’s Ed Harrison to examine what his firm’s indicators are signaling in both the business and growth rate cycles. Using data from ECRI, Achuthan argues that the recent jobs report is misleading and explains why that could forecast a slowdown for both employment and the U.S. economy in general. Finally, Achuthan compares the current monetary policy regime to those of the past to provide a glimpse into what 2020 could have in store for financial markets and the economy. Filmed on December 9, 2019 in New York.



  • SK
    Sergejs K.
    12 February 2020 @ 16:38
    It would be great to have ECRI back on the show after coronavirus breakout.
  • EJ
    Eric J.
    1 January 2020 @ 02:56
    Please Realvision the more ECRI the better! I've been watching their calls for almost 20 years and their track record is nothing short of astounding.
  • EC
    Earl C.
    19 December 2019 @ 03:08
    Hate myself for waiting so long to watch this one. Having lived through the era referred too I learned a lot from this one.
  • WB
    William B.
    18 December 2019 @ 05:37
    Does he think we will have a recession? I couldn't tell.
    • EC
      Earl C.
      19 December 2019 @ 03:01
      My take is that he sees a decent probability of it going either way for the US.
  • TC
    Thomas C.
    17 December 2019 @ 20:56
    Good interview and information although could have been more concise.
  • MC
    Moses C.
    12 December 2019 @ 07:50
    This could have been more coherent and shorter!
    • M.
      Milton .. | Founder
      12 December 2019 @ 13:58
      It's a long form piece. Lakshman has always been appreciated in all his past interviews so it would be a pity to have in for a shorter interview.
    • CJ
      Charles J.
      12 December 2019 @ 21:06
      Honestly, I feel the opposite way. The more Lakshman the better.
    • TJ
      Terry J.
      16 December 2019 @ 14:51
      Sorry Moses, I have to agree with Charles and Milton. I could listen to Lakshman's insights and observations for hours. When you consider how many hours most of us spend poring over the doublespeak pronouncements and minutes of Fed and FOMC meetings etc. to usually learn little new, Lakshman is concise and plain speaking. More importantly he is more often right than wrong.
  • OD
    Orin D.
    16 December 2019 @ 07:32
    I like hearing what he has to say but first 30min of video is a waste of time. He repeats the same stuff every interview. That could of been 10min
  • BA
    Bob A.
    16 December 2019 @ 03:38
    Lakshman is always a must see and the timing here is perfect. I greatly respect both his process and his patience. Please have him back on in mid-2020.
  • DW
    Dean W.
    15 December 2019 @ 22:00
    Sooo, buy the SP500 big dip in 2020? That’s my plan. Long term bullish on US big cap.
  • PU
    Peter U.
    12 December 2019 @ 15:24
    wow, Milton is screening and deleting member comments that don't suit his narrative.
    • M.
      Milton .. | Founder
      12 December 2019 @ 15:53
      No Peter, I'm deleting comments that have already been answered. You asked in a rather aggressive way when the transcript is coming after I just answered an earlier question about it :D
    • PU
      Peter U.
      12 December 2019 @ 23:32
      Milton, I posted the question again because you provided a response to the original (an often recurring request) to post the transcript (IN A TIMELY FASHION) at 13.56. My request was a full 90 minutes later. Your post was "will be up shortly" . . . it wasn't. Operationally, transcripts should be posted contemporaneously with the video. Perhaps this is a stretch for you operationally. Furthermore, "get your act together" clearly triggered your soft underbelly.
    • M.
      Milton .. | Founder
      13 December 2019 @ 06:57
      No harm done Peter, your initial message might have been with a tongue in cheek. Transcript is now up. Videos always go live early morning .eu time while transcripts and audios are uploaded by our lovely .us team.
    • PU
      Peter U.
      13 December 2019 @ 15:28
      No harm either way. Love you Milton!
  • wj
    wiktor j.
    13 December 2019 @ 13:07
    I think the world is more connected then he explains. If the selloff starts in US it will spread. If the selloff starts in Japan it will spread. (Due mostly to clo selloff then coorp debt will be hit in US. And fed is alseep at the wheel). His model and indicators sound interesting though.
  • WS
    William S.
    13 December 2019 @ 05:41
    Nice timing on shows - Sri Kumar on Treasuries/bonds/10 yr...Achuthan on cycles/Fed and not RV, but Hedgeye, pounding the table the cycle is going south through 1st half 2020 min and the icing, Fed yesterday on Hold. Was beginning to wonder where true north really is...putting these sources all together and others, has helped confirm current positions in Treasury bonds, short/interm are on track. A ride to follow but it is not apparent the Fed or China can pull a rabbit out as in 2015/16. Fed will have to pull further cuts like it or not.
  • YC
    Yu C.
    12 December 2019 @ 12:26
    no transcript for this one?
    • M.
      Milton .. | Founder
      12 December 2019 @ 13:56
      Will be up shortly.
    • YC
      Yu C.
      13 December 2019 @ 05:07
      is it possible to include those graphs in the video?
  • WM
    William M.
    13 December 2019 @ 03:51
    Perfect interview and really helpful in assessing where the US and global economies might be heading in 2020. That's frightening that debt growth is 10X economic growth.....and what's not sustainable in the long run....won't keep happening....i.e. eventually it'll all blow up
  • MG
    Mandeep G.
    13 December 2019 @ 03:23
    Is it possible to get the Charts that Lakshman shared in the video, added to the transcript?
  • MG
    Miguel G.
    12 December 2019 @ 18:58
    Achuthan never disappoints absolutely love when hes on real vision and would love for him to be a consistent contributor to real vision access or real vision tv. If you noticed throughout his whole video he didnt spend one second talking about trade wars. His process is 100% data based that doesn't allow for noise like Trump trade tweets to interfere or weigh on his signals. Achuthan, I thank you for your time and the amazing job you do for the small investor in American that knows there's a better way than listening to Jim Cramer blow on horns and whistles like a damn clown.
  • JS
    J S.
    12 December 2019 @ 17:42
    You think the uptick in Europe stands despite Sweden numbers and today EC IP y/y%? Thank you.
  • FA
    Frank A.
    12 December 2019 @ 16:06
    Great interview...........always enjoy what Lakshman has to say....!
  • TB
    Troy B.
    12 December 2019 @ 07:44
    This guy looks like Jeff Goldblum, And great interview.
    • og
      onur g.
      12 December 2019 @ 08:34
      No he just sounds like jeff. The host looks like scottie pippen
    • CB
      Clifford B.
      12 December 2019 @ 15:32
      Ed Interviews as well as Pippen plays!
  • DF
    Diamantino F.
    12 December 2019 @ 11:37
    30m would have been perfect!! good valuable info no doubt, thanks