It's good to see a more detailed discussion of the velocity of money. I think that's a topic that has been neglected over the past several years in discussions of inflation.

Overall a good video but I would like to quickly correct something Victor said, where I believe he misspoke. At the start of the video Victor references a book by William Gordon. He claims that in his book William Gordon demonstrated via regression analysis that buying and selling market indicies on some simple rules around penetration of the 200 day moving average resulted in an 18.5% compounded return for the 60 or so years leading up to the book’s publication. When I heard this number I was astounded (as was the interviewer, by his reaction). It sounded too good to be true. 
Turns out it is. What William Gordon actually demonstrated was an 18.5% simple return over the years that one would have been invested should one have followed those rules. The regression period was base on the Dow Jones Industrial Average over 70 years from 1897 to 1967 and one would have been invested for 42.7 years of those 70 years. If one were to look at the entire 70 year span the return would have dropped to only 11.3% simple return. The return would only have amounted to 6.42% compounded return over those 70 years. Not the 18.5% suggested by Vic. Just for comparisons sake, had one been fully invested for the entire 70 years, instead of trying to time the market using the 200 day moving average, your compounded return would have been 11.3%. Almost double.

A must watch. I have great respect for Victor’s perspective given he has seen cycles since 1968. Also quite enjoy how he compared every market/economic indicator for the last 50-150 years.

does anyone have any links or sources to the comment of the center left loosing 94% of elections in 2017?

Tried to filter me some bullets... just sharing. Tks Vic, tks Adam, tks RV. - We're in a bear market. It's 100%. ... as far as I'm concerned, unless something changes. - ... Now, when you have the Fed raising rates, as Jerome Powell did ... that is a fundamental event. Everybody knows, that's why everybody follows the Fed, that if they're raising rates, markets don't like this, and you're taking away the punchbowl, was the old expression. And basically, you go into recession every time the Fed does this. - ... if you change the fundamentals, you change the outcomes. So if they back off from right now selling QT, and the rise -- the two more increases in interest rates-- you have to consider that. - ... So what the markets are saying now, all things being equal, in July you're going to be in a recession in the United States. - ... inflation will decline because oil has declined. - ... The European Union cannot survive. Now predicting when a sort of a nation ends is a very bad thing for traders to do, because you look at the Soviet Union, they lasted 72 years. So you can't-- they always have tricks that they put forth. So I don't know when the European Union will break up, but it will. ... - (on equities) ... The short side is a difficult thing to play at this level, because there's an incentive for Trump and Xi Jinping to do a deal. They do a deal on trade, the markets are going to rally. I mean, there's going to be a psychological big move up. That would be the time to short. But, you know, not the first day or the first week or even maybe after three weeks. But the key is that's coming. ... - ... The Fed is never going to be able to complete what it said it was going to do. That's not going to help. The key is, what does it do with its balance sheet? Because that is where the rubber meets the road. If they continue to sell, then we're going to see something in the order of a 37, or a 29, 30. - ... So I'm an investor in gold. I'm an investor in silver, in the physical. - ... So mining stocks are actually better than the physical, unless the world has real problems. And then the physical is better than the mining stocks. - ... It's a real Rothschild arbitrage. The banks have put themselves in a position to purely arbitrage the interest. Nothing can happen to them. - ... you buy extreme weakness, because you know the Fed's going to come in. At this point they have. They don't want, really, the markets to continue to go down. They've stabilized them. - You have to be a manipulator. You have to do it when it's quiet. Then you buy it up, and that's the way that the game works.

Great interview! I am a bit puzzled by Victor's criticism of the FED rate increases because I don't think that the FED has any options at this late cycle stage. Am I missing something here?

Someone else can fact check, but I think Milton Friedman’s monetary model variables were the money supply and the velocity of money - not just the money supply. The velocity of money fell to almost nothing during QE ad nauseam. Dr. Friedman may have also said the inflation that did exist was in fixed assets and the stock market with markedly increased P/Es. With QT one would expect reductions in P/Es and fixed assets. DLS

You lost me when arguing that there is unlimited demand for treasuries when we have been seeing some treasury auctions recently with the lowest bid-to-cover in a decade... https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/treasury-bond-auction-draws-weakest-demand-in-nearly-a-decade-1541629316

I became a fan of Trader Vic when he was interviewed year(s) back regarding Lehman & the Option Houses. If I have this right, $198 billion to save Lehman, which represented like 8% equity money for the CDS, CDO's, with the rest leveraged, which could have been ordered cancelled, i.e., no financial crisis or at least a LOT less. Goldman S, J. Paulson, Bernake and the Clinton's played us for fools in 2008. We've all become pawns in a continual dysfunctional government who can't manage themselves, god-forbid run our great nation. I believe raising interest rates saves the financials and especially PENSION funds modeled on 6-8% compounded year over year return. Thanks Victor & Adam for a fine interview.

Excellent.

Totally enjoyed this video -- Victor Sperandeo is a great source of information and thumbs up to Adam as an interviewer. The take away I have from this video is the "New Rules" that started back in 2014 in regard to US treasury auctions -- this yet again demonstrates the insanity and the complete fraudulent banking system that underlies our world economy. Fake auctions, fake money, fake economy. The fact that the FED purposely makes it so difficult to find out, just shows how criminal this organization really is and how much this country and the world desperately needs a transparent honest monetary system. You can literally trace the majority of the world's major problems and unrest back to the Central Banks and their fiat money Recently, I discovered that it was in 1983 when the FED broke from its targeting quantity of credit (M1) to targeting the price of credit (Fed Funds Rate). This bit of information was never formally announced by Chairman Volcker, but could be found in a reading of the Fed minutes. I love how Volcker today, has the nerve to preach about the hell of a mess we are in - when it was him and his cronies at the FED which by simply changing their targets from credit supply to credit cost that allowed our debt fueled Ponzi scheme economy to come into existence in the first place. The hypocrisy of the Central Bankers and their banking accomplices on Wall Street and in the City of London is deplorable and has no bounds. I just bought a magnetic sticker for the back of my car that reads: End the FED.

Only an American could push through their own cognitive dissonance to argue that tax cuts for the rich are going to help the "serfs". Ironically, Victor seems to think that it's others have have the ideological problem, but it was his own commentary that was saturated with ideology. I couldn't sit through any more.

I appreciate Victor's comments about rate hikes and the business cycle, but interest rates are already at extreme historical lows. That should be plenty of stimulus. Insurance companies, pensions, et al need to be considered. Rates can't stay this low for decade after decade or these entities will be bankrupt. Low rates are also crushing retirees trying to live on meager savings (earning nothing) and social security. Powell is doing the right thing in my mind regardless of whether or not stocks and real estate take a hit. We simply must check out of monetary Hotel California. The longer we wait, the worse it gets.

Like watching Lou Dobbs for a full hour

I have interviewed Victor Sperandeo once before. Great insights. I am in really impressed that he has read over 3,000 books.

Best interview I’ve seen on RV

I’ve known about Victor for 20-30 years, but learned tons in this interview. Possibly the best so far on RV or RVT if you have been an original subscriber like me.

The interviewer did a great job at clarifying and guiding the discussion!

Appreciated his candor about missing out on the zirp-inflated fake bull run in US stocks because he couldn't believe policymakers would be as irresponsible & reckless as they've been. No doubt there have been many years of US policy-driven markets in which passive "investing", BTFD and the so-called dumb money has thrived, but 2018 might have been a watershed moment (if not, then perhaps before long). As eventually one day the wizard's wand won't work anymore and everyone will see it was all just a sham.

Victor, after ten plus years don't you think the screwing given to the pensioners, retirees, producers/makers with ZIRP is enough? Greatest transfer of wealth in history, all of the presidents bankers have put us on Pluto and now have no way to get back without being exposed.

Very good interview, what a knowledge of data! As for why there’s no inflation and what happens with printed money by the cb’s (both were a little bit „wobbly” on that point), in my view Jeffrey Snider has it right, it doesn’t matter what cb’s print, it’s all a “man behind the curtain” show, psychology, mass illusion/delusion phenomena. The Eurodollar system cracked in 2008, it’s broken ever since, the addict is on cold turkey, going into the terminal state of convulsions, at that level an injection will not give you a new high, you’ll be lucky not to flatline.

The talk is sincere and honest from a great trader. I like the his thought process: data based bold guess.

This has to be one of the worst Real Vision interviews that I have seen in the past 3 years. To sum up this video: everything is political, and the answer to everything is politics.

Found this interesting and good to get Victor’s perspective. Disappointed in interviewer’s style amd several off-putting comments. Grant or someone more seasoned needs to train him before he does anlr

Hi Real visionaries, ( Victor has correctly mentioned that on the day FED started raising rates in 2015 , 10Y yield at 3.00 and it was 2.95 last night). Can someone care to explain why has the 10 year yield hasn't increased while FED FUNDS has been raised for 9 times from 0.25 to 2.25 ?

It's a most interesting and educational interview. There's one bit I do not get though. I understand that banks do not have to set aside capital reserves when they purchase sovereign bonds. But they would still have to pay upfront for the bonds upfront, don't they? In the US this would take the form of debiting a banks' balance at the federal reserve account and crediting the Treasury's account. If it does not have sufficient reserves at its Fed account, it will not be able to pay for the bond, so its capacity to buy are limited. Of course it can repo the bond out to pay but someone else's bank balance (or the Fed reserve account balance if it's another bank lending out the money) will still have to be debited. As I missing something important here?

Didn't the Fed respond to several temper tantrums when they tried to raise rates earlier. DLS

Great interview by both Victor and Adam. I liked Victor's trading strategies and tactics very much and will try to employ them, I think the Fed is just trying to have some ammunition by raising rates - not just being political. The Fed does try to be sensitive to the stock market, but the stock market is not the economy. Mr. Druckenmiller is looking to the Fed to continue to raise rates, but slide them in when no one is looking. There should not be a forever Fed put to keep the market from normal business and credit cycles. Essentially the Fed has an impossible job. DLS

Victor, please make your books available via audiobook, I would love to listen to them.

It's always awesome to listen to Trader Vic.

The ratings are enlight

Thank you RV very very helpful been a long holder of Physical for a long time!!!! This is why I'm a founding member of RV !!!! WELL DONE!!!

Great discussion. Very helpful

Terrific interview. And where did Adam get those boots?

Brilliant man. Even if he belongs to the 1% club who couldn't love him for his honesty & down- to-earthness.

Good interview. However, Vic is a trader - it would have been great to focus this discussion on his trading rather than macro fundamentals!

Very good interview. Both are Superb!

Sorry if I missed this, but has Victor "revealed" what the reserve requirements are for banks buying treasury securities as hope to maturity? Or in balance sheet terms: when a bank records the treasury on the asset side, what is it recording on the liability side?

This interview is enough to convince me to renew my subscription! Just wow!

Wow awesome interview! Just made my top 10 on RV

Great to see Trader Vic sit for an in depth interview! I love to read his comments and thank him for staying so engaged with we fellow RV’ers.

Trader Vic is a powerhouse, so glad he was brought to us. However, I was disappointed that they put a light weight up to interview him. This is almost a Druckenmiller type player, a more seasoned interviewer could have brought more to us. Someone who actually knew something about TA

The best Tvm!

Wow! The praise from my fellow subscribers for this man is totally merited. He is one smart fellow whose trading record speaks for itself. What impressed me just as much was his equally impressive understanding of economics, politics, human psychology and the danger the greedy global elites are running with their smug serf strategy. Right up there with the Stan Druckenmiller video. I could have listened to him for hours!

This guy has no understanding of how detrimental the overall and continued debt load on the economy is. Thats why we raised interest rates, as a futile attempt to slow it down and soften the inevitable global debt induced recession.

Victor (AKA Trader Vic) is an absolute legend. His books were the first bought, when I stepped into the world of trading - highly recommended. What an absolute pleasure to listen to him once more.

Victor says buy Government Bonds and buy Gold Miners and Silver. He's right.

I have watched this interview with great enthusiasm; 1. Victor has been right to the point in his investment ideas along with brief details! 2. He explained politics in a way that this has been strict game changer anytime in history 3. Where we are and what we should do So what else to expect from such an impressive investor! Thanks Victor & Adam!

Brilliant interview and narrative... young vs old, politics vs market, open questions vs bold statements.

Adam did an amazing job. He should do more of these.

Good to hear Vic again. There is a lot that can be learned by listening to him. Listen to the process of his thinking. That’s the real gem, not necessarily his conclusions.

Such a gift to listen to Trader Vic, speaking his mind! I love how RV has created a forum to discuss our thoughts on these interviews, and I find the dispersion in mind sets between the older baby boomers, and the new millennials in the audience......absolutely enjoyable! No matter what your opinion is....if you can’t find something tangible to learn from his discussion, you are missing the whole point!!! Yes, he may be quirky in his delivery, and yes he may make political comments ( which are TRUE), he understands how the big con job is run, and who controls the power in the game, which is critical to “staying solvent”, as Jimmy Rogers said. Please learn to leave your ego at the door, and open your mind to the intellectual challenge of understanding the monetary world we live in, and try to create a framework for what is coming next, which isn’t pretty....time to get focused, and stay solvent. Very long Gold, silver and mining equities....Bring it on, I’m ready.

off putting comments??? Really??? perhaps one man's cogent is another's off putting?

Really

I agree with the corporate tax reduction to have a level playing field worldwide. The problem is the huge increase in the government deficits which generations will have to repay. DLS

As others, I think we are heading for a recession in earnings - maybe not an GDP recession as prices keep coming down with increased competition. Buyers are using the internet to compare and buy at the lowest price along with rising wages will keep margins under pressure. The main reason, however, for the decline in worldwide earnings is the dislocations and constantly changing tactics in the trade war. DLS

Thanks Adam and Vic, two guys I always enjoy listening to.

...thoughts on the current market environment. (Noticing there is no way to edit comments once max character limit is reached, when typing on phone). Thanks guys.

...before he does another long-form interview. On that note, please have Mike Green back as an interviewer (and interviewee) - he is great on all counts and scary smart. Would be great to get his thoi

Excellent interview. One of the best to date imho.

Trader Vic. Yes!

Great trader, and market historian, he should stick to moving averages. His anti-globalist political views remind one of the 1930s.

Another legend returns to RV. You guys are on a roll.

Victor has been my inspiration as a trader for years. Even as I was a BMX rider buying gold. Read his books! I was just sitting here wondering what this man thinks about the current markets. Thanks Real Vision.

A nice macro view of financial history in simple language. And how things will eventually play out from here. Like his view on Trump that I did not hear anywhere else, but is in fact true.

Victor's back! I like that he often shares his views with us in the comment section so this video is a must see.