DoubleLine’s Global Bond Strategy: A Global Rates and FX Masterclass

Published on
May 27th, 2020
Duration
75 minutes


DoubleLine’s Global Bond Strategy: A Global Rates and FX Masterclass

The Interview ·
Featuring Bill Campbell

Published on: May 27th, 2020 • Duration: 75 minutes

Bill Campbell is the portfolio manager responsible for the Global Bond Strategy Fund at bond behemoth DoubleLine Capital. In this interview with Real Vision’s Ed Harrison, Campbell takes viewers on a tour of global rates and FX markets. Together they take a wholistic view of the European continent, examining the state of the European Union’s core and periphery countries, the UK and Brexit, the opportunity outside of the EU within Germany’s sphere of influence, and the important legal proceedings to watch concerning joint Euro bond issuance. As well, Campbell breaks down a host of emerging and developed markets including China, Australia, New Zealand and many more. Filmed on May 21, 2020.

Comments

Transcript

  • SH
    Samuel H.
    4 July 2020 @ 22:21
    Wholistic?
  • CX
    Cindy X.
    15 June 2020 @ 02:28
    The U.S. is reportedly talking to Brazil to pay them so they will not sign up with china on 5G. It is all on the internet.
  • AV
    Alvin V.
    1 June 2020 @ 22:50
    Except for RusselI Clark which is a rare exception (and I congratulate RV for that interview), I keep seeing China from the lenses of Western geo-political/economic watchers. Why not bring in someone like Dr Kai Fu Lee? And ask him hard questions "no holds barred". Kai-Fu Lee is a Taiwanese-born American computer scientist, businessman, and writer. He is currently based in Beijing, China. Lee developed the world's first speaker-independent, continuous speech recognition system as his Ph.D. thesis at Carnegie Mellon. As a global investor, if we are wrong on China, being right on everything else may still not yield a great outcome. Most observers seem to be sure of some kind of economic and political demise of China. I don't think so. China is lot more complex and I really cannot figure them out easily even being an overseas person of Chinese ancestry; and I speak and write the language at a basic level. I think the majority of Western narrarives oversimplify. This is a civilisation nation that is more than 10 times older than the time between the writing of the US Constitution and today. However convinced America is of a 300 year old doctrine, they have at least 5000 years of unbroken historical evolution without a reset to draw on. Thanks and amazing work with diverse opnions on everything else.
    • CX
      Cindy X.
      15 June 2020 @ 02:28
      Agreed. The macro view may be great, but granularity. Is also needed.
  • CX
    Cindy X.
    15 June 2020 @ 02:18
    I am surprised that you guys did not know that the UK and EU already signed 5G contracts with china.
  • CX
    Cindy X.
    15 June 2020 @ 02:18
    I am surprised that you guys did not know that the UK and EU already signed 5G contracts with china.
  • CX
    Cindy X.
    15 June 2020 @ 02:18
    I am surprised that you guys did not know that the UK and EU already signed 5G contracts with china.
  • CX
    Cindy X.
    15 June 2020 @ 02:18
    I am surprised that you guys did not know that the UK and EU already signed 5G contracts with china.
  • TC
    Thomas C.
    1 June 2020 @ 22:25
    Really useful and clear interview - well done Ed, great questions. Some great ideas and I like Bill's broad knowledge and global outlook. One that I would re-watch again.
  • ml
    m l.
    1 June 2020 @ 13:45
    In section 6 did the interviewer really call Canada an emerging economy? 不不不不 ya man G7 country emerging
  • SD
    S D.
    31 May 2020 @ 23:48
    Really interesting discussion, thank you both.
  • wk
    wai k.
    31 May 2020 @ 03:51
    Insightful and valuable
  • AT
    Alun T.
    30 May 2020 @ 17:57
    Please, we have to have this gentleman back in another couple of months, if possible. Great intetview!
  • mB
    marc B.
    28 May 2020 @ 02:52
    Definitely enjoyed the interview. Bring him back. Emerging market debt has me worried right now. But really excited to start investing once we get closer to Q3. I would enjoy learning about emerging market Corp bonds. Anyone know of a newsletter analyst with recommendations? Fee subscription?
    • pa
      paolo a.
      30 May 2020 @ 10:59
      I'd be interested too
  • pa
    paolo a.
    30 May 2020 @ 10:57
    This IMOwas one of the best expert you interviewed. Very useful and valuable information. Worth the subscription
  • DP
    Duane P.
    29 May 2020 @ 17:57
    This really was the sleeper of the Recession Watch series! Incredible interview! He definitely needs to come back.
  • MF
    Michael F.
    29 May 2020 @ 16:40
    Ed, excellent job with an excellent participant. You both rocked it.
  • IP
    IDA P.
    27 May 2020 @ 07:25
    I really loved this, thank you. I notice that Ed Harrison never says Macron, he always pronounces Macr簷n , what class!
    • KB
      Keith B.
      29 May 2020 @ 03:02
      I read that he speaks at least half a dozen languages? From his constant good pronunciation of European nouns I would suggest this is true.
  • PA
    Pierre A.
    28 May 2020 @ 19:22
    I think Bill saying only 2-3% of GDP in dollar denominated debt is due this year is correct IF the Fed is able to keep asset prices high. Thinking of Richard Koo's Balance Sheet Recession, if asset prices drop again, foreign corporations will be forced to pay down dollar denominated debt in order to restructure their balance sheets, thus creating a high demand for dollars again. Thoughts? All around, great interview!
  • RG
    Roberto G.
    28 May 2020 @ 16:42
    i have a direct question: does RV get paid any money by, or pays any money to, the inverviewed (or related company) for any of the interviews? Also, it would be helpful to publish the track record of fund managers when interviewing them.
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      28 May 2020 @ 18:32
      We get paid to make content for third parties but it never appears on the subscription platform. We do not pay anyone for their interviews but in the past have covered incidental expenses like transit costs or housing. In the current Skype only environment that is essentially nonexistent. A good example of content that we get paid to make is The Big Conversation which is made in partnership with Refinitiv. Here is the latest episode on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3iisbBBBQ0k. It is a weekly show featuring Roger Hirst, so if you can't get enough Roger from the RVDB I would highly recommend.
    • RG
      Roberto G.
      28 May 2020 @ 18:59
      Thank you for the response, also I really appreciate the transparency. It would be great if you would consider the suggestion regarding the track record, I think it's a critical aspect.
  • JM
    John M.
    27 May 2020 @ 17:55
    Chinese 'soft power' is not so soft. Meng Wanzhou (Huawei executive) was arrested in Canada and is awaiting extradition to USA. China quickly responded with tariffs & also arrested several Canadians - two remain in jail (no charges yet). China 'soft power' seems hamfisted, counterproductive & raises specter of 'China Global Bully'.
    • MH
      Michael H.
      28 May 2020 @ 01:43
      Takeaway: only the US is allowed to arrest foreign executives. And I guess Japan (Ghosn) but they're so bad at it they can just escape in a wooden box.
    • DR
      David R.
      28 May 2020 @ 14:18
      It was a politically motivated kidnapping. Meanwhile, not a single one of the genuine criminals from the 2008 fraud-induced US financial meltdown has even seen the inside of a courtroom, must less a prison cell. Disgusting!
  • PN
    Pedro N.
    28 May 2020 @ 05:58
    The quality of the questions was really really lacking. Pity. Could have been a great interview...
  • MD
    Matt D.
    28 May 2020 @ 05:57
    Yep nice work Ed, great interview. Thanks. Extensive and Bill seems very knowledgeable. Easy to listen to and understand. Interesting point about the % GDP in the anticipated recovery v previous downturns.
  • MC
    Michael C.
    28 May 2020 @ 04:53
    Great talk Ed. Would be interested to see if you can get some quick feedback on Yuan devaluation in last 2 days since this was not what Bill was expecting. Perhaps trying to talk about EM debt ex-China is a bit like trying to talk about inflation ex-food and energy? Many Thanks.
  • AL
    Aaron L.
    27 May 2020 @ 10:28
    Treating Australia and NZ as emerging markets??? 不 what you smoking Ed?
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      27 May 2020 @ 11:48
      Yeah, that's probably a bad call. I was thinking 'commodity currency markets'. My apologies if you're from there.
    • TR
      Theodore R.
      28 May 2020 @ 04:29
      I think we should all try to move away from these labels. They are so early 90s. What may be emerging for you, may be very developed for me or the other way around. Buckets certainly make life easier in terms of economic analysis, however we may be doing a bit of disservice to ourselves thinking like that. Can think of a few cases that I dont want to be long or short, at the same time, a number of places that some superior mind had the power to stick them in the same bucket. I have made the mistake over and over again to think that I know somebody just by looking at their passport thinking they are from the emerging bucket, whereas i am the proud product of the developed bucket. Needs work to get away from that thinking, however it helps open ones mind.
  • AP
    Agnieszka P.
    27 May 2020 @ 10:35
    Good interview but the argument with CE countries is not holding up. Poland has horrible demographics with a rapid decline factor, in the next 20 years, it will have the absolute worst in the whole eurozone. If it weren't for immigrants (from Ukraine mostly) our social safety net structure would start collapsing sooner. Labour is not that cheap anymore (as a senior engineer from one of those countries I would argue my salary is not a lot smaller than in Berlin) and most of the work that is outsourced here that has a GDP impact is services, and the differences there are not that big as in production and getting smaller every year (mainly due to competition for intellectual capital - US is also heavily outsourcing into those countries which are causing wages to inflate). Political risks are extremely high - mainly due to the aging population voting for a social-conservative party which has absolute dominance on the political scene. The private-sector leverage factor is quite big as for an emerging country and there is a lot of off-balance-sheet government debt. Leveraging of population stimulated past years' growth but I do not see it growing any further in the coming years. Actually I am quite bearish on Poland since I see a lot of underlying problems with demographics, regulatory environment linked with political risks and leverage. So this part of the conversation I do not agree with, which by the way, makes me question a few other arguments. As somebody mentioned below in the comments section - where are the charts in this discussion? A lot of claims and very little numbers. It was good to hear the arguments but I have a hard time believing them on the premise of being a macro manager only. The bigger the domain - the better the need for charts in the discussion. Please, don't get me wrong - there were some excellent points, however, I guess that some of the speakers got us used to some verifiable numbers. At the same time I understand the time constraints so I know the reason why it is not always possible. Anyway - well done Ed, it was a great interview, thank you and your guest. It was a pleasure to listen.
    • KW
      Krzysztof W.
      27 May 2020 @ 15:19
      That is so true. If nothing changes in Poland (in terms of politicians in charge) for the next 4/6 year - it won't be pretty.
    • mB
      marc B.
      28 May 2020 @ 03:08
      I like the idea of more charts.
  • KR
    Karl R.
    27 May 2020 @ 12:33
    Ed Harrison please prepare better before you say something "you know roundhouse conversation" and these "a, uh, hmm" all the time. I've started to skip interviews with him because of the superficialness
    • CC
      Casey C.
      27 May 2020 @ 12:40
      A bad read in my opinion. I think Ed's great. Keep it up Ed!
    • DS
      David S.
      27 May 2020 @ 17:35
      Karl R. - Mr. Harrison delivers to RVTV subscribers because his financial knowledge allows him to formulate the proper question. In my opinion, Mr. Harrison uses different verbal pauses in a question to properly formulate the question in his mind. He also uses verbal pauses to understand the answer so he can formulate the next question. If the content of a "roundhouse conversation" delivers a better understanding of the interviewee's positions, I am all for it. Certainly, different people have different styles. DLS
    • TS
      Thalia S.
      27 May 2020 @ 17:45
      Why are subscribers to Real Vision so rude? I just can't understand it.
    • TS
      Thalia S.
      27 May 2020 @ 17:45
      I meant to say some subscribers.
    • FS
      Fernando S.
      28 May 2020 @ 02:39
      Passing on in-depth conversation and great insights due to someones unconscious mannerisms seems like a poor choice
  • HH
    HODL H.
    28 May 2020 @ 01:34
    The reason real vision lasts longer than Facebook is because its great content and Facebook is full of boomers who have trump and Biden level brains, so their attention spans are as long as a Hannity or Tucker Carlson segment
  • AK
    ANDY K.
    28 May 2020 @ 00:45
    Fascinating discussion. In particular, I liked the discussion on the mechanics of any potential debt jubilee, and also the prospects for the UK post-Brexit. Just wish we had another 30 minutes to cover emerging markets in more depth, especially since Bill seems a little more constructive on risks in the region compared to Raoul, who has mentioned the EM debt overhang on many occasions. RV should bring Bill back so that he can discuss EM in more depth with Raoul.
  • MT
    Mark T.
    27 May 2020 @ 18:29
    Great interview. Thanks Ed. I respect the folks over at Double Line quite a bit. I like Jeffrey Sherman's podcast and he has had Bill Campbell on as a guest a few times.
    • DF
      David F.
      27 May 2020 @ 23:16
      Not to mention Jeff Gundlach.
  • CD
    Christopher D.
    27 May 2020 @ 22:06
    great chat Restrictions on FDI on national security basis reminded me of smimlar limtations imposed on SWFs investments in key infra back in 2007.
  • GV
    Gabriel V.
    27 May 2020 @ 20:28
    Campbell's view on the bifurcation between the US-allied nations and China-allied nations reminds me of Marin Katusa's discussion on how Fed swap lines impact gold mining. Invest in US-allied nations, or those countries that may become US-allied
  • SS
    Simeon S.
    27 May 2020 @ 11:37
    So many US experts on EU politics.
    • DS
      David S.
      27 May 2020 @ 20:13
      Non-European financial corporations are making investments in Europe. They better have an opinion on the economics and the political situation. DLS
  • WK
    Wright K.
    27 May 2020 @ 14:09
    Opened my mind about my own country - South Africa. Still not sure if we will have a weaker or stronger RAND. So Im keeping only Dollars, but in Crypto. In my opinion I don't need to follow any of this advice, or am I wrong?
    • Md
      Matthew d.
      27 May 2020 @ 17:51
      Wouldnt there still be $$$ hyperinflation risk (once the Fed overshoots and were finished with the deflationary period in 2-5 years)?
  • DS
    David S.
    27 May 2020 @ 17:01
    Great Interview. Mr. Campbell is well prepared on so many topics and straightforward in his answers. No wonder he is responsible for the Global Bond Strategy Fund at Double Line. This is also in Mr. Harrison's wheelhouse in the world credit markets. Thanks to Mr. Campbell and Mr. Harrison. DLS
    • DS
      David S.
      27 May 2020 @ 17:43
      Of course, it helps that I agree with Mr. Campbell's positions. He supports his positions much better than I can as he has an in-depth, working knowledge of the markets and is much more articulate. I often found myself saying "I wish I had said that." during the interview. DLS
  • JA
    Jonathan A.
    27 May 2020 @ 17:08
    Fantastic interview. I found Bill Campbell extremely lucid and well informed. Hope he comes back soon.
  • RC
    Rob C.
    27 May 2020 @ 13:30
    RV An in depth discussion about stagflation would be really interesting right now.
  • AR
    Anik R.
    27 May 2020 @ 12:19
    Really enjoyed the UK/Brexit color!
  • TM
    Tom M.
    27 May 2020 @ 11:41
    All around a solid interview. I'm just a bit surprised that in the discussion of Australia, NZ and Canada there was no mention of the fact that all three are coming into this with absolutely enormous housing bubbles. Surely that has implications for those currencies? What happens to Australia & NZ if the Chinese currency does depreciate markedly? There is also an element of complexity to Aus/China that was glossed over. The federal (right wing) government is standing up to China but at the same time the Victorian state (left wing) government is heavily onboard with Belt & Road which prompted Pompeo to come out saying the status of Aus as part of Five Eyes may be at risk. So Australia is very much in a tug of war there.
    • TM
      Tom M.
      27 May 2020 @ 11:48
      In addition to that, yes there may be demand for NZ's food exports, but NZ is also incredibly dependent on tourism, much more so than Australia as a % of GDP. And given the current rhetoric the Chinese don't seem to be worried about cutting off their nose to spite their face - in other words they will happily slap tariffs on NZ if NZ looks at them wrong. Remember NZ is also part of Five Eyes and will likely be forced to 'pick a side.' Not a dig at Ed or Bill, there were many valuable nuggets in the interview, but I'm from NZ and live in Australia and found this part of the analysis to be a bit lacking in nuance.
  • AW
    Abigail W.
    27 May 2020 @ 09:04
    It would be great if you could show some charts based on data and fact to underpin your arguments next time.