Wholistic?

The U.S. is reportedly talking to Brazil to pay them so they will not sign up with china on 5G. It is all on the internet.

Except for RusselI Clark which is a rare exception (and I congratulate RV for that interview), I keep seeing China from the lenses of Western geo-political/economic watchers. Why not bring in someone like Dr Kai Fu Lee? And ask him hard questions "no holds barred". Kai-Fu Lee is a Taiwanese-born American computer scientist, businessman, and writer. He is currently based in Beijing, China. Lee developed the world's first speaker-independent, continuous speech recognition system as his Ph.D. thesis at Carnegie Mellon. As a global investor, if we are wrong on China, being right on everything else may still not yield a great outcome. Most observers seem to be sure of some kind of economic and political demise of China. I don't think so. China is lot more complex and I really cannot figure them out easily even being an overseas person of Chinese ancestry; and I speak and write the language at a basic level. I think the majority of Western narrarives oversimplify. This is a civilisation nation that is more than 10 times older than the time between the writing of the US Constitution and today. However convinced America is of a 300 year old doctrine, they have at least 5000 years of unbroken historical evolution without a reset to draw on. Thanks and amazing work with diverse opnions on everything else.

I am surprised that you guys did not know that the UK and EU already signed 5G contracts with china.

I am surprised that you guys did not know that the UK and EU already signed 5G contracts with china.

I am surprised that you guys did not know that the UK and EU already signed 5G contracts with china.

I am surprised that you guys did not know that the UK and EU already signed 5G contracts with china.

Really useful and clear interview - well done Ed, great questions. Some great ideas and I like Bill's broad knowledge and global outlook. One that I would re-watch again.

In section 6 did the interviewer really call Canada an emerging economy? 🤣🤣🤣🤣 ya man G7 country emerging

Really interesting discussion, thank you both.

Insightful and valuable

Please, we have to have this gentleman back in another couple of months, if possible. Great intetview!

Definitely enjoyed the interview. Bring him back. Emerging market debt has me worried right now. But really excited to start investing once we get closer to Q3. I would enjoy learning about emerging market Corp bonds. Anyone know of a newsletter analyst with recommendations? Fee subscription?

This IMOwas one of the best expert you interviewed. Very useful and valuable information. Worth the subscription

This really was the sleeper of the Recession Watch series! Incredible interview! He definitely needs to come back.

Ed, excellent job with an excellent participant. You both rocked it.

I really loved this, thank you. I notice that Ed Harrison never says Macron, he always pronounces Macròn , what class!

I think Bill saying only 2-3% of GDP in dollar denominated debt is due this year is correct IF the Fed is able to keep asset prices high. Thinking of Richard Koo's Balance Sheet Recession, if asset prices drop again, foreign corporations will be forced to pay down dollar denominated debt in order to restructure their balance sheets, thus creating a high demand for dollars again. Thoughts? All around, great interview!

i have a direct question: does RV get paid any money by, or pays any money to, the inverviewed (or related company) for any of the interviews? Also, it would be helpful to publish the track record of fund managers when interviewing them.

Chinese 'soft power' is not so soft. Meng Wanzhou (Huawei executive) was arrested in Canada and is awaiting extradition to USA. China quickly responded with tariffs & also arrested several Canadians - two remain in jail (no charges yet). China 'soft power' seems hamfisted, counterproductive & raises specter of 'China Global Bully'.

The quality of the questions was really really lacking. Pity. Could have been a great interview...

Yep nice work Ed, great interview. Thanks. Extensive and Bill seems very knowledgeable. Easy to listen to and understand. Interesting point about the % GDP in the anticipated recovery v previous downturns.

Great talk Ed. Would be interested to see if you can get some quick feedback on Yuan devaluation in last 2 days since this was not what Bill was expecting. Perhaps trying to talk about EM debt ex-China is a bit like trying to talk about inflation ex-food and energy? Many Thanks.

Treating Australia and NZ as emerging markets??? 🤣 what you smoking Ed?

Good interview but the argument with CE countries is not holding up. Poland has horrible demographics with a rapid decline factor, in the next 20 years, it will have the absolute worst in the whole eurozone. If it weren't for immigrants (from Ukraine mostly) our social safety net structure would start collapsing sooner. Labour is not that cheap anymore (as a senior engineer from one of those countries I would argue my salary is not a lot smaller than in Berlin) and most of the work that is outsourced here that has a GDP impact is services, and the differences there are not that big as in production and getting smaller every year (mainly due to competition for intellectual capital - US is also heavily outsourcing into those countries which are causing wages to inflate). Political risks are extremely high - mainly due to the aging population voting for a social-conservative party which has absolute dominance on the political scene. The private-sector leverage factor is quite big as for an emerging country and there is a lot of off-balance-sheet government debt. Leveraging of population stimulated past years' growth but I do not see it growing any further in the coming years. Actually I am quite bearish on Poland since I see a lot of underlying problems with demographics, regulatory environment linked with political risks and leverage. So this part of the conversation I do not agree with, which by the way, makes me question a few other arguments. As somebody mentioned below in the comments section - where are the charts in this discussion? A lot of claims and very little numbers. It was good to hear the arguments but I have a hard time believing them on the premise of being a macro manager only. The bigger the domain - the better the need for charts in the discussion. Please, don't get me wrong - there were some excellent points, however, I guess that some of the speakers got us used to some verifiable numbers. At the same time I understand the time constraints so I know the reason why it is not always possible. Anyway - well done Ed, it was a great interview, thank you and your guest. It was a pleasure to listen.

Ed Harrison please prepare better before you say something "you know roundhouse conversation" and these "a, uh, hmm" all the time. I've started to skip interviews with him because of the superficialness

The reason real vision lasts longer than Facebook is because it’s great content and Facebook is full of boomers who have trump and Biden level brains, so their attention spans are as long as a Hannity or Tucker Carlson segment

Fascinating discussion. In particular, I liked the discussion on the mechanics of any potential debt jubilee, and also the prospects for the UK post-Brexit. Just wish we had another 30 minutes to cover emerging markets in more depth, especially since Bill seems a little more constructive on risks in the region compared to Raoul, who has mentioned the EM debt overhang on many occasions. RV should bring Bill back so that he can discuss EM in more depth with Raoul.

Great interview. Thanks Ed. I respect the folks over at Double Line quite a bit. I like Jeffrey Sherman's podcast and he has had Bill Campbell on as a guest a few times.

great chat Restrictions on FDI on national security basis reminded me of smimlar limtations imposed on SWFs investments in key infra back in 2007.

Campbell's view on the bifurcation between the US-allied nations and China-allied nations reminds me of Marin Katusa's discussion on how Fed swap lines impact gold mining. Invest in US-allied nations, or those countries that may become US-allied

So many US experts on EU politics.

Opened my mind about my own country - South Africa. Still not sure if we will have a weaker or stronger RAND. So Im keeping only Dollars, but in Crypto. In my opinion I don't need to follow any of this advice, or am I wrong?

Great Interview. Mr. Campbell is well prepared on so many topics and straightforward in his answers. No wonder he is responsible for the Global Bond Strategy Fund at Double Line. This is also in Mr. Harrison's wheelhouse in the world credit markets. Thanks to Mr. Campbell and Mr. Harrison. DLS

Fantastic interview. I found Bill Campbell extremely lucid and well informed. Hope he comes back soon.

RV An in depth discussion about stagflation would be really interesting right now.

Really enjoyed the UK/Brexit color!

All around a solid interview. I'm just a bit surprised that in the discussion of Australia, NZ and Canada there was no mention of the fact that all three are coming into this with absolutely enormous housing bubbles. Surely that has implications for those currencies? What happens to Australia & NZ if the Chinese currency does depreciate markedly? There is also an element of complexity to Aus/China that was glossed over. The federal (right wing) government is standing up to China but at the same time the Victorian state (left wing) government is heavily onboard with Belt & Road which prompted Pompeo to come out saying the status of Aus as part of Five Eyes may be at risk. So Australia is very much in a tug of war there.

It would be great if you could show some charts based on data and fact to underpin your arguments next time.