Gregorius, thanks for your comment. Yes you are right about the similarities in the 4th turning and shifts in the developed world to conservatism. See comment below to Christos on the potential incorporation of S-H's work in our framework.

Dear Christo Many thanks for your comments. Judo, sparring was so long ago, the world was still on its “second turning” :-) I really like the S-H approach. I believe they are completely right about events and their influence generations. I believe there are 4 elements that influence how people develop: 1. Genetic DNA 2. Generation: The stories of our shared history. You and I have lived through a war in 1974 so we are both shaped in similar ways by that experience. 3. Culture: Stories of your family/tribe 4. Personal experience We have been discussing ways to integrate elements of their generational approach with our work. Things we have been debating are what if turns are happening faster and what if they a country is not following the expected archetype sequence (in Cyprus, you and I were nomads by birth who got shaped by a war and the post war generation was prophets). As we are investing capital behind our values framework, we need processes that also tell us if we are wrong, so we correct before it gets expensive. For example, 5 years ago we believed that values shifted in a predictable way around, like a ferry’s wheel. Similar to how the archetypes change in a predictable sequence. But over the past 3 years we found that certain countries, and not necessarily because of a crisis, values were shifting in different direction from what theory was telling us. The process we put in place helped us spot these changes early. We did it by studying multigenerational households (grandparents, parents, children) and speaking to culture observers, people whose careers depend on spotting cultural shifts early, such as film producers or politicians. On politicians, I don't think they shape the discourse. Good politicians are just amazing at reading the cultural shifts and positioning their message for it.

Is it the peloton girl?

How did you even get time to watch it haha? Need to step up my game.

Thanks Raoul. I am grateful for all the time Max had spent to understand the process so we could have an in-depth discussion.

Dear Jason, many thanks for your comments. I have not written a book, but post insights from our consumer research at https://www.trinetra-im.com/insights If you are interested in the process of ethnography a good book is "Think Like an Anthropologist" by Matthew Engelke. This is a quote from Gillian Tett of the FT in the book: “I happen to think that anthropology is a brilliant background for looking at finance. Firstly you are trained to look at how societies and cultures operate holistically, so you look at how all the bits move together. And most people in the City don’t do that… But the other thing is, if you come from an anthropology background, you will try and put finance in a cultural context. Bankers like to imagine that money and the profit motive is as universal as gravity. They think it is basically a given and they think it is completely apersonal. And it’s not. What they do in finance it is all about culture and interaction”. On the Interview I spoke about India and Indonesia. Two books I would recommend for those two markets are “Dreamers: How Young Indians are Changing the World” by Snigdha Poonam and "Indonesia etc.: Exploring the Improbable Nation” by Elizabeth Pisani, which is quite an engaging read. Please feel free to get in touch with me through Linkedin, Twitter or our website if you have further questions.

Many thanks for the comments, G. Two thoughts. First, It is helpful to think of investing in EMs in three distinct phases.: - Resource Phase: You take resources out of the ground to sell to the workshops of the world. This is where most frontier markets are, such as SSA that you mention. - Workshop of the World Phase: You produce and depend on DM demand, like Taiwan and Korea. - Domestic consumption phase: This is the pure growth phase of EMs where success becomes democratised and people invest in education for their kids, their healthcare etc. This is the pure growth phase to try to capture and most of SSA would not fall in this group. Second, relates to the point of statistics and data which Max raised at the beginning of our discussion and their availability and unreliability in EMs. For example, in India over the past decade we are find an increasing number of women homepreneurs, setting up businesses from home. They are not counted in the official statistics as contributing to India’s GDP. Yet, they are part of a silent revolution of women homepreneurs who are still performing may of their old roles in the households but also bringing income and upgrading the family’s lifestyle. If you look at the official female workforce participation rate in high income countries is around 52% to an embarrassingly low 21% in India. A pure top-down approach would be missing the marked increase in women using their education and mobile technology becoming homepreneurs. I have recorded a podcast on this topic last year which you can find here https://www.trinetra-im.com/post/podcast-3-when-statistics-lie

Thanks Frank. That is exactly right. And if you are studying different EMs you will find that 3 years later you are hearing the same myths in India that you heard in China before. This is a short clip which shows part of an ethnographic discussion we had with an Indian 18 year old - I love it when he corrects me that "Apple is not a better phone but a better brand". It is here https://vimeo.com/310633963 . Only when we look at decisions of others through a their value lens can we start understanding '"why" they make those decisions.

His 2018 performance (12/29/2017-12/31/2018) was -13.97%. Compared to $EEM performance of -15.31%, he outperformed by 135 bps. His 2019 performance (12/31/2018-12/31/2019) was +24.00%. Compared to $EEM performance of +18.20%, he outperformed by 580 bps. His 2020 YTD performance is (12/31/2019-6/30/2020) is -5.74%. Compared to $EEM performance of -10.35%, he is outperforming by 462 bps YTD. Lifetime performance of his fund (9/20/2017-6/30/2020) he is up 3.55%. Compared with $EEM performance of -5.94%, he has outperformed by 9.49% Also, his time horizon is 5+ years and the fund is approximately 3-years old so maybe not even time to yet to judge. Preliminary results say that if you are looking to get long exposure to EM, Trinetra is outperforming the benchmark index consistently.

Thanks for your comment, Dan. Imagine a country where a critical mass of poor people are becoming economically viable. Parents willing to sacrifice everything for their children's education, role models for the journey from rags to riches, technology to copy and industrialize, a labor cost advantage, a supply chain of low cost raw material. That started driving demands and dreams beyond subsistence. You might think I am talking about EM today, but I could be talking about the UK in the 1700s or the US in the 1800s or Japan in 1900s. The rise of domestic consumption is not a new story but a story that has been happening for almost 300 years and will continue beyond our lifetime as countries take people from low productivity sectors like agriculture and move them to higher productivity sectors such as industry. COVID-19 should not be a killer of this long term trend but could prove to be a speed bump. But as there are sectors that will suffer sever slowdown, there will also be sectors that are going to see acceleration during their period. For example, eCommerce, Fintech, having remote access to healthcare, Ed-Tech companies. To find the opportunities in the current challenging environment, we need to look beyond the macro and look at the opportunities at each company level.

Thanks Tyler, glad you enjoyed it.

Dear Andras, many thanks for your comment and I am glad to see that it woke up the ethnographer in you!

Back in NY with the rest of my fall/winter clothes. Should be back in the rotation in a few months. Until then, I hope you like my extremely limited road wardrobe.

Just look up their holdings 🤦‍♂️