Financial History Key to Understanding Political Future

Published on
November 10th, 2016
Duration
48 minutes


Financial History Key to Understanding Political Future

The Interview ·
Featuring Russell Napier

Published on: November 10th, 2016 • Duration: 48 minutes

Financial historian and independent research strategist Russell Napier thinks investors and financial professionals need a greater understanding of financial history, so much so that he built a ‘Library of Mistakes’ in Edinburgh, dedicated to the subject. Without understanding financial history, it’s impossible to forecast government intentions, which he says, with political paralysis in Europe, could result in financial repression, including capital controls, as central banking just isn’t working.

Comments

  • KZ
    Konrad Z.
    18 December 2020 @ 09:12
    32:42 in EU capital controls are impossible under the EU treaties: they expressly establish the freedom of movement of capital within the EU. Politicians will have a it hard to change that since the European Court of Justice prevails over national courts, including the constitutional ones. PS: other than than I think the EU is doomed for other reasons
  • DD
    Dmitry D.
    4 August 2020 @ 13:33
    Incredible interview. As relevant and insightful now as it was at filming
  • MW
    Matthew W.
    25 June 2020 @ 05:34
    It is playing out as he predicted... brilliant
  • AV
    Alexander V.
    11 February 2017 @ 04:19
    I must have watched this interview over a dozen times now. This one will go down in Real Vision TV history.
    • JL
      J L.
      26 June 2017 @ 18:17
      So true, I find myself rewatching some of these like that good old movie that always stuck to your heart
  • FB
    Floyd B.
    4 January 2017 @ 01:46
    Excellent...so many have little understanding or appreciation of financial history in this 142 character world!
  • JL
    Jordan L.
    2 January 2017 @ 18:28
    This video spurred me to read Anatomy of a Bear which has been sitting on my bookshelf for some time. Napier is a pleasure to hear and read. Great wide-ranging interview. The conclusions are spot-on .
  • MH
    Mark H.
    26 November 2016 @ 10:45
    16 dislikes. WTF. LOL invite THEM on.
  • GG
    Giacomo G.
    24 November 2016 @ 16:57
    Thanks you Grant for this! Hope mr. Napier can come back soon.
  • GE
    GABI E.
    22 November 2016 @ 10:16
    Very interesting interview , th'x!!
  • VB
    Vincent B.
    21 November 2016 @ 19:55
    Viva la napier
  • MS
    Max S.
    20 November 2016 @ 14:13
    Simply outstanding interview, among the best! Thank you.
  • JD
    Jonathan D.
    19 November 2016 @ 20:16
    I didn't get the inflation bit. If that arises - likely - why wouldn' rates rise and kill property?
  • jg
    james g.
    19 November 2016 @ 10:13
    10 bonus points for managing to include the Morris Marina in a dialogue on financial history!
  • SB
    Stephen B.
    18 November 2016 @ 20:10
    Great interview
  • RA
    Robert A.
    18 November 2016 @ 17:43
    Oh, so all my reading and watching every RV interview may NOT be in vain. Great stuff here Grant and Raoul! Who would have thought there is anything to fear from that silky smooth financial repression? Wouldn't you love to sit in an Edinburgh Pub with James Grant and Russell opining on Financial history.
  • IV
    Ian V.
    17 November 2016 @ 00:23
    "Capitalism with Chinese characteristics"!! Love it. Sort of thought we had that already. Great interview, thanks for the continued stellar content.
  • SS
    Stephen S.
    16 November 2016 @ 01:36
    Great! Thank you. Have you tried to interview Liaquat Ahamed?
  • KE
    Kenan E.
    15 November 2016 @ 19:30
    Russel is Great. I read bis book "Anatomy of the bear" I think everyone should read it from cover to cover!
  • AV
    Alexander V.
    15 November 2016 @ 14:34
    KILLER interview. I found a new financial mind to follow. Thanks Real Vision TV!
  • BH
    Brian H.
    15 November 2016 @ 00:55
    One of the best interviews I've watched yet on Real Vision
  • VS
    Victor S. | Contributor
    14 November 2016 @ 19:22
    Mr Napier knows what he is talking about.
  • SR
    Sean R.
    14 November 2016 @ 04:35
    Fantastic. Love Napier. Pretty sure Grant has the best job in the world!
  • SS
    Sam S.
    13 November 2016 @ 13:38
    Faith keeps building with my people. My children graduated from university with nothing but false perceptions they still argue today but will soon admit aren't working. It will cause lots of confusion. Fortunately they don't have any educational debt as their grandparents saw the future, enjoyed tax advantages on educational funds and so they could side step the debt madness. This conversation is so huge so macro in nature and it's all coming to the forefront----Master Class for me.
  • NG
    Nicolas G.
    12 November 2016 @ 17:49
    Thank you very much for offering a very interesting interview and for helping some of us to get known such a intelligent and well structured mind. Please bring him back soon. It felt like if you turn off the player 10 min before the film ends.
  • WM
    Will M.
    12 November 2016 @ 03:34
    Great interview. Not sure his President Clinton comment was heavily seriously thought out and doesn't change my view of his well thought reasoned arguments. Now I agree with another comment below; Robert Prechter has been around for a long while and predicted 2001/2 far too early, then predicted 2008 too early and is now calling a top to the super cycle. Yes yes he has hardly proved an accurate predictor of financial timing. However he is an expert in Elliott Wave analysis and social economics theory. Well worth an interview and challenge to his views. Lets get the EW argument along with all the other great diverse comments on RVT.
  • BD
    Bruce D.
    12 November 2016 @ 01:48
    The rabbit hole is very deep...and quite dark too. A fabulous discussion of our limited options for the eventual destruction of our worlds monetary system. If massive inflation is the ONLY answer long term, then gold and real assets must be used as a store of buying power. I'm quite sure the derivatives on the banks balance sheets won't do the trick. Thank you Milton!
  • JM
    Jason M.
    12 November 2016 @ 01:18
    Great interview. Really enjoy Russell's work. Given how little so many people have in savings I agree that helicopter money is likely politically palatable. I would be interested in him fleshing out more where he seems investors having patience is the most fruitful.
  • TN
    Thomas N.
    11 November 2016 @ 15:08
    Not sure how you reconcile the statement that you can predict political events but then forecast Clinton will be President! I would have thought Russell might have had more in common with his old colleague Chris Wood in taking Trump more seriously....
  • MC
    Michael C.
    11 November 2016 @ 08:44
    Great interview and I suggest you go across to his website ERI-C for an article on the post Trump world. One of the deeper thinkers of finance and well done for getting him on RV.
  • TM
    Thomas M.
    11 November 2016 @ 05:01
    I believe this was the best interview on real vision and sober explanations of the world crisis to come. Deflation 1st followed by massive inflation if the most probable outcome. How to prepare for this is the key to ones savings and survival of the next world crisis IMHO. Having a degree in the pseudoscience of economics I once thought was valuable, I loved this interview with the clear thought process and honesty to where we are now and how thing may unfold. Excellent Job and thank you for this interview. I would love to here grant interview Mr. Napier on how his thoughts are to prepare for these event as they unfolds. EXCELLENT, EXCELLENT INTERVIEW Grant and RV Team!
  • sp
    shashwat p.
    11 November 2016 @ 04:38
    His style of speaking is as dense as his writing style. Brilliant interview. What was left unsaid was the role of gold locked away in a vault
  • CA
    Craig A.
    11 November 2016 @ 03:51
    Probably the best interviews on real vision
  • SR
    Steve R.
    11 November 2016 @ 02:11
    Definitely agree with his view that they will never ban cash - there quite literally would be riots in the street, just aint gonna happen.
  • DC
    David C.
    11 November 2016 @ 01:45
    I echo the comments asking for another interview. People would be well advised to read the Helicopter money article that Grant mentioned - found on Zerohedge. I also suggest this 4 minute interview with Russell from June of this year - covers some of his investment ideas - http://citywire.co.uk/wealth-manager/news/russell-napier-the-dangers-of-a-yen-devaluation/a921754
  • SK
    Stefan K.
    11 November 2016 @ 00:31
    At the End Napier said "First Deflation as a Shock, then Inflation". That is exactly the thesis of Robert Prechter, first published in "At the Crest of the Tidal Wave" in 1995. Any chance you guys could get him on the programme? He also just called the final market top earlier today, by the way. I know that Prechter has been wrong or too early for a decade depending on how you look at it, but I think his arguments are intelectually sound and an Interview with him would be quite interesting.
  • HS
    Hubert S.
    10 November 2016 @ 21:35
    to Trevor, unauthorized book recommendation (but most will probably agree): "Devil take the hindmost", Edward Chancellor - another guy Grant should interview …..
  • RB
    Rob B.
    10 November 2016 @ 20:41
    Great interview as usual. Gives good perspective on what Gov could do and what likely they will do when they are running out of fiscal tricks
  • MM
    Michael M.
    10 November 2016 @ 20:37
    Great interview. A fellow norn irishman! Also, President Clinton -LOL!
  • ag
    anthony g.
    10 November 2016 @ 18:07
    Rather good - hope another one can be done.
  • DM
    Daniel M.
    10 November 2016 @ 17:06
    Why does Grant look like a blue light bulb?
  • MS
    Matt S.
    10 November 2016 @ 17:01
    A very good interview. @Trevor - this is a good one that all have read/must read: http://tinyurl.com/gopoznp
  • de
    dale e.
    10 November 2016 @ 16:17
    Excelent interview! He definatly needs to come back.
  • eh
    erik h.
    10 November 2016 @ 16:12
    I've made the same conclusion in regards to universities teaching economists to ignore history. My theory it is deliberate policy to enable broad sweeping poor policy based on poor theory. It has worked. The debate among economists, even on the most fundamentally basic level. How does money/credit originate? What is the role of gold in todays financial system? For financial history, The Gods of Money by William Engdahl is an excellent 100 year tour up to the 2008 crisis explaining the powers and motivations for events that people seem to think are completely unrelated, even though they are all deliberate policy of its time. Absolutely excellent interview. Could not be more content with this weeks interviews. Fantastic work.
  • RM
    Richard M.
    10 November 2016 @ 16:10
    Russell Napier - so, so brilliant! Great interview Grant, please do a follow-up with him now that the U.S. elections are over and a new direction may be coming from this part of the world. Again, great interview!
  • GW
    Grant W. | Founder
    10 November 2016 @ 16:01
    @Trevor Lords of Finance by Liaquat Ahamed. An amazing, important book
  • tW
    tgwtom W.
    10 November 2016 @ 15:47
    So smart, it hurts.
  • TP
    Trevor P.
    10 November 2016 @ 15:09
    Great interview! Grant - who is the author of "The Laws of Finance" book you mentioned? What books would the Professor suggest that would be a good start in learning about financial history?

Mark Yusko

Morgan Creek Capital Management, Co- Founder, CEO, & CIO

Mark Yuskois the Founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management. He is also the Managing Partner of Morgan Creek Digital Assets. Morgan Creek Capital Management was founded in 2004 and currently manages close to $2 billion in discretionary and non-discretionary assets. Prior to founding Morgan Creek, Mr. Yusko was CIO and Founder of UNC Management Company (UNCMC), the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Before that, he was Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office.Mr. Yusko has been at the forefront of institutional investing throughout his career. An early investor in alternative asset classes at Notre Dame, he brought the Endowment Model of investing to UNC, which contributed to significant performance gains for the Endowment. The Endowment Model is the cornerstone philosophy of Morgan Creek, as is the mandate to Invest in Innovation. Mr. Yusko is again at the forefront of investing through Morgan Creek Digital Assets, which was formed in 2018. Morgan Creek Digital is an early stage investor in blockchain technology, digital currency and digital assets through the firm’s Venture Capital and Digital Asset Index Fund.Mr. Yusko received a BA with Honors from the University of Notre Dame and an MBA in Accounting and Finance from the University of Chicago.

Anthony Scaramucci

SkyBridge Capital, Founder & Co-Managing Partner

Prior to founding SkyBridge in 2005, Scaramucci co-founded investment partnership Oscar Capital Management, which was sold to Neuberger Berman, LLC in 2001. Earlier, he was a vice president in Private Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs & Co. In 2016, Scaramucci was ranked #85 in Worth Magazine’sPower 100: The 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. In 2011, he received Ernst & Young’s “Entrepreneur of the Year –New York” Award in the Financial Services category. Anthony is amember of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), vice chair of the Kennedy Center Corporate Fund Board, a board member of both The Brain Tumor Foundation and Business Executives for National Security (BENS), and a Trustee of the United States Olympic & Paralympic Foundation. He was a member of the New York City Financial Services Advisory Committee from 2007 to 2012. In November 2016, he was named to President-Elect Trump’s 16-person Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee. In June 2017, he wasnamed the Chief Strategy Officer of the EXIM Bank. He served as the White House Communications Director for a period in July 2017. Scaramucci, a native of Long Island, New York, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Tufts University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School.

Michael Saylor

MicroStrategy, Co-Founder

Mr. Saylor is a technologist, entrepreneur, business executive, philanthropist, and best-selling author. He currently serves as Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Office of MicroStrategy, Inc. (MSTR). Since co-founding the company at the age of 24, Mr. Saylor has built MicroStrategy into a global leader in business intelligence, mobile software, and cloud-based services. In 2012, he authoredThe Mobile Wave: How Mobile Intelligence Will Change Everything, which earned a spot onThe NewYork TimesBest Sellers list. Mr. Saylor attended the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, receiving an S.B. in Aeronautics and Astronautics and an S.B. in Science, Technology, and Society.

Alex Saunders

Nugget's News, Founder & CEO

Alex Saunders is the founder and CEO of Nugget’s News, a digital media company focused on all things crypto. Alex has been captivated by cryptocurrency since 2012 and in 2017 he began educating globally on the benefits of cryptocurrency and how to safely acquireit. Nugget’s News has been listed as a top-20 podcast by Business Insider, ShapeShift and Lifehacker and has over 120k YouTube subscribers with 9 million total views.Alex is also heavily focused on his cryptocurrency education platform Collective Shift which currently serves over 4,500 members. provides his unique perspectives by utilising his expertise in fundamental analysis, technical analysis and market sentiment. He is working towards his mission of making it easier for everyone to understand the financial world.

James Putra

TradeStation Crypto, Inc., Sr. Director of Product Strategy

James helped launch TradeStation Crypto’s offeringwhichutilizesa true online brokerage model that self-directed investors and traders have come to expect for equities, futures,and foreign currency markets. He is a reputed crypto asset specialist and blockchain thought leader focused on helping people find innovativeways to participate in this space. He is active in the blockchain community with speaking engagements, TV appearances and mentoring.James has over 15 years of experience in the Fintech industry.

Raoul Pal

Real Vision, Co-Founder & CEO

Raoul Pal is the Co-Founder and CEO of Real Vision, the world’s pre-eminent financial media platform, which helps members understand the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy. Real Vision members also have access to Real Vision Crypto, a cryptocurrency and digital assets video channelwatched by over 80,000 people.In addition, Raoul has been publishing Global Macro Investor since January 2005 to provide original, high quality, quantifiable and easily readable research for the global macro investment community hedge funds, family offices, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. It draws on his considerable 31 years of experience in advising hedge funds and managing a global macro hedge fund. Global Macro Investor has one of the very best, proven track records of any newsletter in the industry, producing extremely positive returns in eight out of the last twelve years. He retired from managing client money at the age of 36 in 2004 and now lives in the tiny Caribbean island of Little Cayman in the Cayman Islands. Previously he co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul moved to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe. In this role, Raoul established strong relationships with many of the world’s pre-eminent hedge funds, learning from their styles and experiences. Other stop-off points on the way were NatWest Markets and HSBC, although hebegan his career by training traders in technical analysis.

Peter McCormack

What Bitcoin Did, Journalist

Peter McCormack is a full timejournalist/podcaster covering topics such as Freedom, Human Rights, Censorship and Bitcoin. Peter created and hosts the What Bitcoin Did Podcast, a twice-weekly Bitcoin podcast where he interviews experts in the world of Bitcoin development, privacy, investment and adoption. Launched in November of 2017, the podcast has grown to over 100 episodes with a guest list that is a testament to the diversity of knowledge and opinions that represent the broader Bitcoin community. Expanding his growing list of humaninterest recordings, documentaries and films Peter has recently launched theDefiancepodcast andDefianceTV.

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Hunter Horsley

Bitwise Asset Management, CEO

Hunter Horsley is Chief Executive Officer of Bitwise Asset Management. Prior to Bitwise, he was a product manager at Facebook, working on advertiser products including the multibillion-dollar sponsored content ecosystem and ad breaks in videos. Before Facebook, Horlsey was a product manager at Instagram, responsible for multiple advertising products generating several hundred million dollars of revenue. He is a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, with a B.S. in economics. Recently, Horsley was named a member of Forbes’ 2019 “30 Under 30” list.

Luke Gromen

Forest For The Trees, Founder & President

Luke Gromen has 25 years of experience in equity research, equity research sales, and as a macro/thematic analyst.He is the founder and president of macro/thematic research firm FFTT, LLC, which he founded in early 2014 to address and leverage the opportunity he saw created by applying what clientsand former colleagues consistently described as a “unique ability to connect the dots” during a time when he saw an increasing “silo-ing” of perspectives occurring on Wall Street and in corporate America.FFTT caters to institutions and sophisticated individuals by aggregating a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks for his clients.Prior to founding FFTT, Luke was a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company, where he worked from 2006-14.At CRC, Luke worked in sales and edited CRC’s flagship weekly thematic research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”)for the firm’s clients.Prior to that,Luke was a partner at Midwest Research, where he worked in equity research and sales from 1996-2006.While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly thematic summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients, in whichhe aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.Luke Gromen holds a BBA in Finance and Accounting from the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University.He earned the CFA designation in 2003.

Meltem Demirors

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