Gold and Silver: The Least Burnt Trees in a Wildfire

Published on
August 17th, 2020
61 minutes

Bill Erbey: The “Renaissance Man” of Entrepreneurship

Gold and Silver: The Least Burnt Trees in a Wildfire

The Interview ·
Featuring Lyn Alden and Ron William

Published on: August 17th, 2020 • Duration: 61 minutes

Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy is joined by Ron William of RW Advisory to kick off Real Vision’s weeklong coverage of precious metals. Alden conducts a macro analysis of gold and silver by comparing historically their prices relative to money supply, interest rates, and equity valuations, while William conducts his analysis using technical indicators and chart patterns. William thinks this rally in precious metals is nowhere close to over while Alden expresses a more moderate bullish case: she wants to own gold and silver, but not at any price. Alden and William also discuss the state of economic recovery worldwide, mining stocks, Bitcoin, as well as potential catalysts for more price action. Filmed on August 13, 2020.



  • MA
    MarketStudent A.
    30 August 2020 @ 21:47
    It would be useful to get more credentials / background of speakers for context -- "Ron William of RW Advisory" does not convey much. Thanks
    • MS
      Michael S.
      10 September 2020 @ 04:08
  • FL
    Fabrizio L.
    17 August 2020 @ 12:20
    how about hearing a real gold bear, as a check and balance process to validate our thesis? too much groupthink?
    • CB
      Clifford B.
      17 August 2020 @ 15:23
    • HN
      Hoang N.
      17 August 2020 @ 16:11
      Yes. I also think RV needs to bring a gold bear to the platform
    • AB
      Alastair B.
      17 August 2020 @ 16:14
      This is a great idea. We need a contrary opinion
    • TP
      Timothy P.
      17 August 2020 @ 16:45
      How about this - Gold is a ring-fenced asset that poses no risk to sovereign govts, ie., "Stick it to the man" isn't going to work, at all. 1. Storage/Rehypothecation - A vault/warehouse says it has your gold. You must believe that they aren't cheating you. They can issue you certificates, maybe even give you spot-check ability to see the vaults, but there are ways to fool people that the physical is there. 2. Market Ring-Fence - LIBOR was compromised because it was a limited number of market makers who saw the opportunity to manipulate prices. Gold itself is a limited market when you consider the physical. Low number of suppliers and primary dealers, it lends itself to a "gaming" scenario, especially when considering point one above. 3. Verification Only Known If You Are Present - Meaning, the only way you can assay your gold is to physically be there and do it yourself, or have a trusted party in your supervision doing so. The moment that vault door closes, you lose any ability to know -- which opens you to risks outlined in point 1. (Unlike Bitcoin, where you can instantly verify at any point on the globe at any time that a private key has access to the BTC someone tells you it has.) 4. KingGold/China - In reference to point one, look at the antics of China where it comes to gold. Scams, rehypothecation -- and that is just because KingGold got caught. They still deny it, naturally. Also google for the recent scams put over on the Jewelry district of New York, tungsten core cladded bars are not fiction, they well and truly exist. Now multiply that risk across many vaults and storage schemes where access restrictions may not be as tight as you think they are. 5. Physical is... PHYSICAL - Given its density and onerous requirements for shipping and insurance, this encourages schemes where clients "holding" gold are depending on outside parties to maintain the chain of custody and hope their bars don't get substituted or altered. Some laud these properties, yet you don't find many that are willing to carry any substantial amount on their person. It isn't practical to do so, and there are sovereign-state limitations on how much monetary value you can have crossing a border. Gold proponents espouse the physical as a desired quality, yet don't explain how that will help when a SHTF scenario happens and you're trying to leave via the only functioning airport, or worse yet, loading down your car to get out of somewhere in crisis. I've never seen someone set up a card table after a disaster with a scale and an assay kit with a sign "Food and Water here for Gold". It just doesn't happen -- because the most valuable things then are water and food, gold takes a backseat until barter makes sense again. That is just a few I thought of...
    • BE
      Benjamin E.
      17 August 2020 @ 16:50
      Uh. I don't disagree with the notion. But Buffet just bought the shiny pet rock. The best you can find is short term bears given parabolic price movements. A macro investor who isn't favoring currency devaluation hedges of some sort... aren't macro investors. I think I've seen a few investors who acknowledge the gold trade but who think they can get better returns from other hard assets. But that's about it in terms of bears. It's a difficult proposition you're posing.
    • BE
      Benjamin E.
      17 August 2020 @ 16:53
      Timothy poses great counterpoints to physical gold itself. But not the price of gold.
    • TP
      Timothy P.
      17 August 2020 @ 17:07
      @Benjamin -- I don't take issue with the price of gold, because as we all know - the whole structure is a confidence game. You believe gold is valuable, so do others, so they make a market for it. It also helps that fiat currencies are being devalued on a global basis, which of course inflates the price as that side of the equation changes. The true crisis is when you can't trust fiat, and by extension on my points above - you can't trust you have the value you think you have in gold either. Confidence works both ways for any perceived currency. If you went out on the street right now, with a gold coin - no one would recognize what it was and wouldn't trust you to give you money for it. So that limits you to dealers and their numbers aren't great outside of urban areas.
    • AD
      Antonio D.
      17 August 2020 @ 20:19
      @Benjamin E - To clarify, Buffet bought Barrick (Ticker: $GOLD) which as a miner is a leverage play and dividend play on the Gold spot price. Indeed, they are related but he did not directly buy the pet rock.
    • AF
      Andre F.
      18 August 2020 @ 01:06
      Antonio, Benjamin was using an obvious colloquialism. You're being pedantic.
    • ab
      alfred b.
      18 August 2020 @ 11:21
      Timothy P All currencies are based on trust. Gold/Silver have no counterparty risk. Your argument as to Physical bullion hold fraud risk/Comex manipulations etc are a separate discussion and valid, but ultimately are actually tailwinds to PM if unravelled as most of the action is in shorting the metals (comex manipulations) and making them perceived as more available than they actually are. It becomes more expensive to mine as easier deposits are extracted. The price of the PM assets in the market look to go higher, but with some corrections along the way, and with more volatility relating to Silver. The requirement to have a bear comment is semantic. The PM market is tiny comparatively to other investments, largely because most investors are gold bears. Look for them under most rocks, but I dont need to waste time listening to their obvious arguments as to why they ignore a class that has been fantastic for me. Fundamental drivers, Low real interest rates for the near future (supported by central bank printing), long term inflationary headwinds, risk increase are all bullish for PM. If one is a trader there are plenty of risks. As an investor I am quite comfortable that the views presented are relatively realistic (altho I favour Lynne's slightly more cautious approach to short term risk, and openness to Crypto ultimately as a shared store of value.)
    • WM
      Will M.
      29 August 2020 @ 14:42
      Sorry I just don’t think most of Timothy P’s point are particularly significant. Points 1,3 and 4 are all about security of storage and trust / verification. I am with a little advertised but long standing Swiss company that has stood the test of time wrt openness and integrity (they are twice the price of the average gold storer and do not advertise their services, you have to “find them). They also source the gold kilo bars directly from a refiner). I am also with the SWP in the Cayman Islands and buy the standard manufacturer Kilo bars. Both services offer short notice inspection and 3rd party regular audit. You can also buy the standard currency coins with them. I therefore have zero concern about theft, tungsten fakes or leasing out games. They are not GLD. Point 2 is therefore also not really relevant especially for the Swiss outfit. Clearly SWP are close to refiners and therefore margins can get elevated as Cayman is clearly a storage hub and not a primary bar manufacturing area. Finally the London Gold Pool also managed to manipulate prices for many years but eventually the free market blew that out. Point 5 has some validity but I don’t hold gold to hand over to folks for food and will never own it in the country of my tax domicile. Silver would be a best choice in the form of coin, however, having said that having spare cash bills in mixed denominations are better plus a store of food and necessities for emergencies. “Gold takes a back seat until barter makes sense again” is a somewhat silly statement. Gold IS money, currency notes are paper promises. All the anti gold folks just don’t seem to understand that gold is a store of value with no counter party risk and if it wasn’t why would the banks hold tons of it? Humans will do as they have always done when it comes to store of value...... the smart ones will own some precious metals when appropriate. The only new kid on the block apart from precious metals ( and property of course) is Bitcoin et al. I am about to get into that this month as it could be a parallel speculation to my silver holdings.
  • SG
    Sashi G.
    28 August 2020 @ 07:56
    Interesting exchange between them. I thought they complemented each other well. Though I did not find anything new from either Lyn or Ron. In a sense there is now too much content on RV and themes and presenters are repeating a lot. of similar themes. True financial knowledge democracy I guess. Caveat emptor
  • JA
    Joseph A.
    17 August 2020 @ 16:23
    Lyn you navigated and directed this interview very well. Please do more! Your articulation throughout and summary at the end was spot on. Not only informative but clarity of thought was evident and that makes this the best way to start precious metals week.
    • AJ
      Akshay J.
      19 August 2020 @ 21:46
      Hi Joseph - quite new to the channel and definitely learning as i go on - I must say i did get a bit lost in the last segment when Lyn is talking about the relationships between real yields and nominal yields and its effect on gold , would you or another kind member be able to summarize?
    • KK
      Ken K.
      22 August 2020 @ 21:39
      Hi Akshay, Real Yield = Nominal Yield - Inflation When real yields go negative. (i.e., when interest rate is low and inflation spikes up), gold tends to shoot up. On the otherside when real yields return back to positive territory, gold will pull back.
  • TZ
    Tibor Z.
    20 August 2020 @ 23:05
    Mid - late stage in gold? Are you kidding me?
  • RK
    Robert K.
    19 August 2020 @ 01:16
    If the Twain estate is collecting royalties on the “history doesn’t repeat, but it does rhyme” cliche, his heirs should buy a Rao a proper billiards table (pocketless). And upgrade Ash’s a/c unit.
  • DS
    David S.
    18 August 2020 @ 22:35
    Excellent and thoughtful discussion. I watched it twice. Thanks. DLS
  • JH
    Joseph H.
    17 August 2020 @ 11:57
    Nice Job! Lyn: "it's split somewhat between precious metals and cryptocurrencies....older investors, retail investors are trending towards the precious metals, whereas some of the younger investors tend to be more comfortable with the cryptocurrency space". And this is precisely why Ripple (XRP) bridges the gap between the two spaces. XRP is in the cryptocurrency space but is working through the regulatory hurdles and directly with banks to solve the rapid settlement problem. There is no doubt that Bitcoin will be used as a store of value in the short term. Bitcoin is 70% correlated with Gold. Ethereum, with Vitalek leading the way, will change the world. Vitalek is like Steve Jobs and will make breakthrough changes that will take longer. Ethereum is still in the innovation and development phase. Ripple (XRP) has one of the strongest use cases for the next 5 year time horizon and will soften the political environment for widespread adoption and policy changes that allow for a whole new Fintech revolution. Ripple (XRP) has a DC office and is lobbying Congress to expedite the change in the Fintech space. There are a lot of ideological views in this space but as Ed Harris says "trade the markets for what they are not for what you think they should be". They will all co-exist and peak at different times in long term.
    • WH
      William H.
      17 August 2020 @ 12:42
      I agree with you. There is a lot of hate for XRP, which I think stems from BTC maximalists who don’t like that Ripple wants to work directly with banks and Fintech. Ripple is working on solving real world problems. We have heard guests and even RP talk about the problems with swift and correspondent banking. Why XRP and get no mention is beyond me. I get that XRP has little value without Ripple the company so that can be risky, but Ripple has made real progress in the space.
    • AD
      Alexander D.
      17 August 2020 @ 14:42
      As a person who invests in both gold and BTC, I'm very against Ripple as an investment. It seems Ripple based their model of issuing coins on the Fed's, while BTCs is more similar to gold. Hats off to the people who captured the 50%+ movement recently on Ripple, but as long as management continues to Pump and Dump I don't think i'll hold any.
    • TP
      Timothy P.
      17 August 2020 @ 16:58
      The term "Bitcoin Maximalist" as coined by Vitalik Buterin after he was rejected from speed-grafting on his "smart" contract experiment in Bitcoin. (The Bitcon dev process is deliberate and cautious for a reason.) After that rejection, he launched his own coin - which is inflationary, by the way - and has the sole achievement of rolling back a blockchain under his watch. The "smart" contract language he was using allowed someone to craft a contract that gave them funds. They called this a "hack" even though the language explicitly permitted it, and then the approx. 13 developers and Vitalik decided to do the "DAO Rollback" with no consensus from their users. So much for non-immutability. After sliding down that slippery slope Vitalik is at it again, but now he claims that Proof-of-Stake is the logical path forward, even though that opens up network security to many risks -- as evinced by the DPoS cou-de-tat peformed on the Steem blockchain by a single wealthy party -- not to mention that Proof-of-Stake itself replicates many of the inequities you find in the legacy financial markets (ie., the more coins you stake, the more influence you have in the system). Couple that with the fact that "ETH 2.0" has been rescheduled, punted, and generally delayed many times doesn't engender confidence that the boy wonder can pull this off. Their testnet crashed recently, which is fairly embarrassing. As well as the massive amount of funds that are being lost in "DeFi" -- but that is another topic altogether. As for XRP, there are two parts, one is a token they hawk to the hoi-polloi for pure speculative reasons, the other is a token they restrict to "known partners" and they claim they have traction - but no one is advertising it yet, curiously. They also have a centralized server scheme (I kid you not) Ripple Server 1, 2, 3 -- even though they say you CAN run one, nobody bothers because the requirements are onerous and impractical. There is a long tail for failures in the crypto space. That is just a taste of what new people may not be aware of. I'd think twice before piling into a token with near-zero history and a massive pre-mined stake held by the issuers.
    • FB
      Frank B.
      18 August 2020 @ 21:14
      Can you please demonstrate how Bitcoin has a correlation of 0.7 with Gold if that's what you mean with "70%"?
  • BC
    Burton C.
    18 August 2020 @ 04:13
    Any discussion about silver that does not mention the decade long work done by Ted Butler is a very hollow discussion that misses the elephant in the room. There is so much going on behind the curtain that it could blow the roof off of this market in the near future. Just the fact that more silver is moving into the silver ETF than is produced ought to be the center of the discussion particularly since most silver produced is already directed into industrial use.
    • BB
      Brent B.
      18 August 2020 @ 18:02
      Ive been hearing Eric Sprott talk about this production imbalance too and am trying to grasp how it will effect market mechanics. Any insight to help my head bang against this wall with clearer results is appreciated RV.
  • TJ
    Terry J.
    18 August 2020 @ 16:42
    Top class discussion and insights was to why gold and silver could run some way before their bull runs are over. Excellent start to the PMW. Thank you Lyn and Ron and RV
  • DR
    Derrick R.
    18 August 2020 @ 14:22
    Ron says silver is just getting started and a few min later says we are mid stage to late stage, not sure what to make of this.
  • WT
    18 August 2020 @ 09:44
    Timothy P. wrote: "I've never seen someone set up a card table after a disaster with a scale and an assay kit with a sign "Food and Water here for Gold". It just doesn't happen -- because the most valuable things then are water and food, gold takes a backseat until barter makes sense again." I agree. IMO I believe ammunition in the most popular calibers (.22LR, .223/5.56mm and 9mm) would be worth far more for bartering than gold. Arable and/or hunting land and the means to defend yourself are more important than PMs in a genuine SHTF situation. Jew Without a Gun - J I hope it never comes to that but recent events make me wonder.
    • AW
      Andrew W.
      18 August 2020 @ 11:49
      What's discussed in this video has nothing to do with a SHTF situation. You have missed 100% of the point.
  • BT
    Billy T.
    17 August 2020 @ 15:59
    Nothing new...zzzzzz...
    • AD
      Antonio D.
      17 August 2020 @ 20:15
      But isn't that the incredible part - as a global phenomenon, Covid-19, together with the resulting money printing by all CBs, has created the largest macroeconomic event since (and greater than) the Great Depression. - There is no more interest rate reduction to spur the economy. - There is no political will for austerity to work out of debt. - There is only money printing to inflate away debt and prop up zombie companies. Agreed, It's all the same. It's boring. Yet it is only publicly acknowledged on FinTwit and our other echo chambers (like RealVision). It can seem so obvious to us, but most still don't see the end game. We are lucky to be aware of this boring, same, information.
    • BT
      Billy T.
      17 August 2020 @ 21:42
      I think RV new content should build on past interviews/content. Just didn't think this particular interview brought anything new.
    • ab
      alfred b.
      18 August 2020 @ 11:01
      Investing is time driven. If there is nothing new, then no reason to change investing habits. Valuable intel, easily wasted by those that dont get it.. imho.
  • PT
    Peter T.
    18 August 2020 @ 00:04
    Why is RV unable to enlist a contrarian to challenge it's thesis? I'm new here, but imho this style of group think and confirmation bias severely undermines RV's credibility (or perhaps reveals its lack of credibility).
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      18 August 2020 @ 01:13
      Check out today’s Daily Briefing
    • ab
      alfred b.
      18 August 2020 @ 10:56
      These 2 presented powerful arguments. Not every discussion needs an immediate counterpoint to be distilled and digested.
  • GB
    Gary B.
    18 August 2020 @ 01:37
    Great interview, but the interviewer talked almost as much as the guest!!
    • AF
      Andre F.
      18 August 2020 @ 02:57
      That was the intended style of the discussion; Mr. William stated as much in his opening words. And when Lyn tried to move on before he was ready, he stayed with the point he wanted to elaborate or expand on before letting the pace move forward too soon. They pretty much synched up well. It was a good dialogue.
    • ab
      alfred b.
      18 August 2020 @ 10:55
      That is because the interviewer knows as much as the guest. Valuable counterpoints. Lynne is bullish, but a little more conservatively than Ron due to recent increases in Gold and Silver. Her research is impeccable. That is why I watched this, to listen to her... Great discussion
  • RT
    18 August 2020 @ 05:36
    A good Macro-technical cross talk. Thanks Ron and Lyn.
  • DP
    Duane P.
    18 August 2020 @ 04:53
    An important point: The underlying driver of the contraction in 1937 was the Federal Reserve's doubling of the reserve requirement for the banks.
  • JK
    Jake K.
    18 August 2020 @ 01:55
    Top tier Real Vision. High signal per minute ratio.
  • CO
    Craig O.
    18 August 2020 @ 00:09
    Today Lynn published a comprehensive article outlining her macro framework for precious metals. It seems like solid analysis. Check it out if you're intersted in a deeper dive. Has all the charts from the video plus a number of others that bear out her thesis. She's a solid follow on Twitter.
  • ER
    Ernesto R.
    17 August 2020 @ 23:12
    excellent interview thanks to both really appriciated
  • ED
    Eric D.
    17 August 2020 @ 06:40
    I was confused his comment on Gold being in its mid-late stage of the current cycle (-40.50). Isn't this thing just getting going?
    • RC
      Robert C.
      17 August 2020 @ 10:33
      My assumption in what was meant was that gold was mid-late stage of the first of 3 up cycles. It was the only way I could contextualize that comment.
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      17 August 2020 @ 21:58
      I too would like that comment contextually clarified.
  • ml
    m l.
    17 August 2020 @ 13:20
    New real vision video called “its a scam, don’t fall for it”. Wonder if they’re talking about subbing to real vision
    • AF
      Andre F.
      17 August 2020 @ 17:22
      In what way do you believe you are being short changed by RV?
    • CD
      Carl D.
      17 August 2020 @ 17:35
      joe weisenthal... is that you?
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      17 August 2020 @ 21:54
      Carl D. LOL ;)
  • SS
    Steven S.
    17 August 2020 @ 21:18
    Great, informative discussion
  • ES
    Edward S.
    17 August 2020 @ 17:54
    Can we get Lyn and Ron's charts? Great interview by Lyn.
    • RS
      Roger S.
      17 August 2020 @ 20:43
      Charts are all in the transcript.
  • TB
    Tad B.
    17 August 2020 @ 20:22
    These guys are great together..... and they talk about the things I’m very interested in. Hope they make this a regular slot 👍
  • AD
    Antonio D.
    17 August 2020 @ 20:21
    The sheer number of comments generated by this video, in any direction (thumbs up or down), show the quality of thought provoking discussion in this video. Bravo, Lyn and Ron.
  • JM
    John M.
    17 August 2020 @ 18:19
    Lyn is excellent.
  • AM
    Anthony M.
    17 August 2020 @ 17:59
    Well done!
  • JS
    Jon S.
    17 August 2020 @ 16:58
    Ooh lyn should be interviewee do not waste her time! She is much more valuable than simply as hoster!
    • JS
      Jon S.
      17 August 2020 @ 17:37
      I want to delete this comment I comment before watching it. She is a great hoster. Please ignore my last.
    • DG
      Dr G.
      17 August 2020 @ 17:47
      Lyn is great in both seats. More of her please
  • GL
    Gareth L.
    17 August 2020 @ 13:30
    Question: The M2 money supply per capita, is this the USA only or global? As gold is an intrinsically global commodity would it not be better to model on global money supply vs global population? (I appreciate that data may not be available)
    • CD
      Carl D.
      17 August 2020 @ 17:32
      that would be an interesting chart
  • JS
    Jon S.
    17 August 2020 @ 16:56
    I need to watch this lyn alden again
    • AB
      Alastair B.
      17 August 2020 @ 17:14
      She’s a regular on Realvision, look back through the archives
  • TP
    Timothy P.
    17 August 2020 @ 17:01
    I appreciated this interview - I'd like both Ron and Lyn to come back in the future. Its also refreshing to see Lyn taking an interest in the emergent crypto asset class. I believe personally as a technical trader that it trades like nothing else on the planet. Its seems to be more "classic" in the sense of charting patterns and volatility cycles.
  • JG
    Jordan G.
    17 August 2020 @ 16:31
    Lyn, awesome to see you hosting.
  • JK
    John K.
    17 August 2020 @ 16:30
    Also want to say their was a massive recession in the early 1900’s/late 1800’s that was initially called the Great Depression until the 1930 Great Depression became known as the Great Depression. Railroads were all going bankrupt
  • JK
    John K.
    17 August 2020 @ 16:27
    I think the biggest reason why the GFC isn’t similar to the Great Depression is because the GFC didn’t deleverage nearly as much as the Great Depression did. In fact we barely deleveraged at all
  • MB
    Maxime B.
    17 August 2020 @ 16:24
    The interviewer has more value in her questions ... than the interviewed .... kind of poor apple pie this " Ron williams"
  • AT
    ALAN T.
    17 August 2020 @ 15:48
  • HR
    Humberto R.
    17 August 2020 @ 15:44
    Anyone catch what Mr. Williams says around minute 38 about the mastrich cycle? The transcript has it recorded as master cycle, but I don't think that is what he said. Is there a term for a big super cycle that he may be referring to? Thanks
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    17 August 2020 @ 14:44
    Superb. Please fix RV app for iOS, thank you - cannot post comments reliably beyond a few words.
  • PQ
    Peter Q.
    17 August 2020 @ 12:53
    3 to 5 years until the end of the rate cycle. To reverse this, I can't imagine higher rates unless it is a substantial inflation sets in (dollar/debt depreciation) with negative real rates.
  • MJ
    Marc J.
    17 August 2020 @ 12:45
    As maybe 40% of gold is used as jewellery, should we not also compare the price of gold to world population increases?
  • bm
    brian m.
    17 August 2020 @ 09:37
    Lyn has a depth of knowledge similar to Lacey Hunt. A real eye opener.
    • PU
      Peter U.
      17 August 2020 @ 12:22
      Lyn is very good, but with all due respect, she is not on the same playing field as Lacy Hunt
  • PU
    Peter U.
    17 August 2020 @ 12:20
    Both participants did and an excellent job! Thank you.
  • SK
    Stephen K.
    17 August 2020 @ 11:03
    Great discussion. Thank you.
  • IC
    Ibrahim C.
    17 August 2020 @ 10:04
    The books behind Ron are really essential ones to trade the markets not only in the right state of mind but also with technicals. I am currently reading the book of Dr. Van Tharp (the one at the left side)
  • DO
    Daryl O.
    17 August 2020 @ 09:54
    Excellent discussion. Great to see two experts deep-diving into such critically important investment themes. Well done to Real Vision too for providing the platform for such talent.
  • PJ
    Paul J.
    17 August 2020 @ 08:41
    Finally, a lady to break the recent throng of sausage fest.
  • RK
    Rusev K.
    17 August 2020 @ 07:26
    Nice content and also nice to see Lyn's beautiful face among all those interviews filled with Gen-Xers and boomers.
  • lf
    liam f.
    17 August 2020 @ 07:21