Comments
Transcript
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SERoubini can really rant, now he's a professional epidemiologist? Can't say walls don't stop a virus, and then in the same breath argue for lock-downs (which are less than a wall). Which is it mate?
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CBSadly, I am just getting to this interview. Incredible density of information such that I am going to have to watch at least one more time. Excellent interview by Ash.
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DZ37:30 Good intervention there. Kudos to the interviewer being on top of things.
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TSIt's surprising how wrong this guy looks just 2 weeks after the interview. I can understand his nickname. Glad I waited before watching this one.
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MLThank you Nouriel, for your in-depth explanations. Kudos to Ash as well, for his patient and well-paced questions. Overall, an excellent interview for those seeking guidance and information in these unprecedented times.
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LSThe "news" on the virus is totally overstated, it is a fantastic overreaction. I can show this already mathematically, as have many others who are not looking at this from an emotional or media driven point of view. Now, the fact remains that the Fed has used up its last bullets is certainly the case, and it seems that inflation as a result can easily result finally, as all have been waiting for. The economic situation is certainly poor, but it is artificial at this point since it was caused by an artificial/over reaction. Roubini shows he doesn't understand what is going on here health-wise, like most non health people (and sadly many in the health fields are emotional too), because cases mean nothing in themselves, especially if the lethality is not high (pro tip: it's not). It's just another story to add to a phenomenal news cycle, of which the economic situation IS truly a real story, but brought on by many false narratives.
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RSGreat interview and I take all of his points except one. The US is not not susceptible to oil shocks like all those other instances in the past where presidents were voted out of office after a single term in office. There is shale oil now.
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VSGreat interview and interviewer. Would love to know his view on Gold and especially for non-US scenario
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GTHe and others talk about mitigation/suppression measures as "stopping the virus". The only thing that will stop it is a vaccine in 12-18 months. Those measures are solely for managing the flow into the health care system i.e. flatten the curve. We are likely all going to be exposed to the virus before a vaccine. It would seem the fastest road to recovery would be a hospitalization rate just below what the health care system can handle. No one dare talk about an optimal death rate, but that is the tragic reality.
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CTI always like to listen to him, but you would have lost a lot money if you had listened (and acted accordingly) the last couple of years.
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JSProf. Roubini explains concepts and macro inter-related effects so well, his teaching background shines through. Very much enjoyed this video. I’m sure we’re all hoping the 30% weighting he gives to a Greater Depression scenario doesn’t materialize!
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IMAmazing, excellent. Top. Worth paying for it. Thank you Both!!!!
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TMHoly f***! I have a bearish disposition, but Nouriel makes me look like a raging bull in comparison!
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PSAsh, Nouriel thank you so much. What an efficient transfer of knowledge in one hour! Amazing
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TSSomething about the way this guy talks is unsettling, as if he's angrily yelling at the viewer the entire time.
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MFsuch a great interview! Really enjoyed it
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FKSpeaking of MMT, could you invite Nathan Tankus for an interview? Also Mosler or Prof. Werner.
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FBNR loves to hear himself talk. He avoided the MOST important question that was asked ,that is actually what most successful deep thinkers ask themselves...how or where could I be wrong?
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AKThis homie needs some chill. Good interviewer. In short, prolonged recession due to corona impact into next year, localization of production such as pharma leading to price of goods inflation, MMT, stagflation (recession + inflation). war with Iran after Iranian regime provokes conflict in ME to deflect from internal troubles, oil price spikes +$100, USD is safe haven, bottom is not in. rally is a ded cat bounce - corona contagion and economic news is not priced in, more fiscal policies (3+) could happen to feed starving households.
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JSExcellent interview.
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DPAsh did a great job in this interview.
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PSI just watched for second time and took key points from Nuriel´s case: AGREGGATE DEMAND - income of households going to zero - fiscal stimulus not reaching households fast enough and targeted enough - riots in the streets likely - Gig economy means people get laid off fast and without compensation and 0 cash - Virus not contained = economy does not open = households will struggle for a long time - this will not get better until the health crisis is solved (and that´s been an utter fail so far) Overall, in the short run we are facing the demand shock above. You can deal with it via fiscal stimulus. However, over time there comes a supply shock too. SUPPLY SHOCK - over time the shut down of economy reduces output - lower output = higher prices of goods and services - deglobalization, reshoring, tarrifs, local protectionalism, inward policies, shattering of supply chains all contribute to the massive supply shock = prices will go up as we produce in the west with higher costs - you fiscalise it and monetise it and eventually come up with STAGFLATION (=recession because output can´t grow due to virus & inflation of goods and services due to unlimited MMT QE) COMPARISON to 1970s and 2008 and 2020 - in 2008 credit shock led to collapse in Aggregate demand, wages going down, prices going down === DEFLATION. As a result we were able to get out of it via stimulus - 1970s crisis was similar we had fiscal and monetary stimulus and ended up with double digit inflation - 2020 covid-19 crisis has a massive negative supply shock so we will end up with stagflation if we do monetary and fiscal stimulus on it (more dollars chase less goods) - overall Nuriel believes we will face a greater recession, worse than in 2008 because we inherited the fragile economy and have both supply shock, demand shock as well as trade wars and oil shocks. This is base case with 60% DEPRESSION RISKS (30% case by Nuriel) - until winter 2020 the virus could mutate and come back worse - risk of wars in Middle East (US vs Iran) - prolonging geopolitical shocks, supply chains shattered, local protectionism getting deeper OTHER REMARKS - share buybacks made CEOs rich, privatising gains, socialising losses, corporations became fragile due to high leverage and thinner capitalisation - there is a lot of distress in credit markets amplifying the risk of scramble on cash and flight for liquidity - USD swaps solve the USD strength for big 7 economies, but not for EMs who will need dollars - systemic risk is coming from the excessive debt in the credit markets MY TAKEAWAYS: - you want to have gold and bitcoin in the stagflation environment - bet on strong USD makes more sense against the EMs so for example long USD-BRL (real of Brasil) has more potential as they have no central bank swaps, whilst the long UUP bet is probably less potential (I will still keep it because I believe US is in better shape than EU etc)
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DSFantastic interview. Consistent with Dr. Roubini's analyses in the past. Mr. Bennington did a fantastic job. DLS
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JEI'm sorry but saying millions are going to die is silly, this virus peaks in months, not years. The amount of immunity in the community is unknown because of not enough testing. Totally over the top estimates. It's the economy that matters when the virus runs it's course, please concentrate on that.
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BMEven though this implies worst cast scenarios ...I choose to look at the bright side...and even though I am a boomer...I can totally dig this millennial generation anthem...stay positive https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DL7-CKirWZE
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HHI heard term Thucydides trap being mentioned. Another great RV classic that people should watch if not already is the interview of Graham Allison by Kyle Bass.
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MTI disagree with the Doctor about Iran.
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BOExcellent and informative interview. Thank you so much for providing such great content. Stay safe out there.
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BPDr. Nouriel is Legit! He definitely knows what he is talking about.
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mbThis guy never misses a chance to be pessimistic and wanting the world to end. Buy another weird shaped mirror
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MHNo shutdown was required. Test and isolate on a large scale. We've seen it work. We should be banging out heaps of tests and not so many vents. . This shut down will kill more people than the damn disease over time.
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RGGlad to see that he has it all mapped out. Many snags in his thesis. I found myself laughing for some reason at times.
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KDI absolutely loves this content..noted that he did not stop to breath till 44 minutes to go! Great job
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RMThere is a potential Covid 19 treatment game changer that preliminary results indicate reverses the lung inflammation and eliminates the need for ventilators. This could allow the end of quarantine everywhere and allow the economy to start to restart. See https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/CYDY/news?id=258232. Disclosure I am long CYDY.
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AmGreat interview. I wonder what his view is on gold, especially in a scenario were we get stagflation.
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DFLovely to have a clear well-reasoned understanding of the problem and possible outcomes. Fantastic.
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RYAwesome ....
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CHActually glad he was able to speak in an uninterrupted manner. Mainstream media only gives him 15 min. tops.
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shNO MORE DOCTOR DOOM......ECONOMISTS....GROSS...please shut UUUUUUP!!!
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RWThat’s all fine,,,,why cant all of these genius commentators at the very least come up with a policy response of their own
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VP"I don't know what they are smoking, something strange quite frankly" LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
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MLNouriel is brilliant. He also has the shiniest fridge (and a piano) I've seen.
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EAWhat about a series of sovereign defaults? Lebanon already first, South Africa, Turkey, Argentina and many others may follow. This would be the perfect time for that. I agree IMF applications are temporary, but the problems, the supply chain problems, the health situation, concurrent demand and supply shocks are resident for a few years. Why not consider a lot of defaults at the same time?
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LAThank u Dr. Roubini, u are thoughtful & passionate. Glad to hear that he does not support corporate bailouts. I would support my tax dollars going towards social programs i.e elderly, disabled etc. & vs.bailing out selfish corps that spend billions to buy back their stock then drive their co's to the brinkk of bankruptcy. Ash- great job on interviewing - great ques & rapport!
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JGHis analysis is unfortunately realistic in my humble opinion. I wish he was wrong. The underlying problem in the whole western world is that we have been delusional about so many things. 1. Believing that we can let debt outgrow GDP forever without any consequences. 2.Letting a mercantilist state,China, into a free trade organisation, WHO 3. Letting the financial sector and top management of public companies plunder the real capital of our corporations, under the excuse 'we are worth our pay'. 4.Letting down society's middle class and expecting them to just take it on the chin. Privatise the gains, socialise the losses. 5.Letting big corporations create de facto monopolies. The father of capitalism Adam Smith would have turned away in disgust! We need to be realistic; it is a long haul to fix this....
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AAChina is lying! How could anyone believe data out of the ccp?!?!
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YBExtremely well-reasoned. I had never heard Roubini speak before. Wish I had started listening to him sooner!
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DSWarm weather may slow down Coronavirus spread, but Southern Hemisphere countries are reporting more cases in the hot part of their summer. DLS
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AMCompelling message... although its over the top one has to consider he could be spot on. Even if Dr. Roubini is in the general ballpark it's going to hammer the populous that's already on life support from the last GFC. Bet he is a hit at dinner parties after a few vinos.
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WMI really wish I could say Dr. Roubini is wrong and everything will bounce back soon, but he seems very on target and the stock market still seems way too complacent about the potential for $250 trillion in global debt to implode. MMT and debt forgiveness have only started...we are embarking on a great big experiment. Let's hope some genius comes up with a vaccine soon!
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TSRealism = Pessimism^2 However I agree with Dr. Roubini but I believe in the following: "We must free ourselves of the hope that the sea will ever rest. We must learn to sail in high winds", said by Aristotle Onassis. So lets hope humanity learns..and sails in high winds
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WAI agree with Dr. Roubini that the markets currently are not pricing risk appropriately. I am anticipating the following regime shifts: 1.De-globalization and supply chain disruptions. After the the way China has handled the covid-19 pandemic it is most likely that manufacturing that is deemed essential to national security will return to USA. Anything else will be shifted to friendly countries like Mexico, Canada, India etc. 2. US China cold war. This will intensify the supply chain disruptions and will create three trading blocks. The first one is the American block, the second one is the EU block, and the third one is the China block. So countries will have to choose which block they want to be in for trading. 3. Consumers and companies will deleverage at the same time Governments will expand their balance sheets to pay retirees, bailouts of all kinds, combat deflation and create inflation at whatever cost to inflate the debt in real terms. So expect debt monetization outright, and the FED capping rates across the curve. This will be true also in EU and China who have the same problem as the US. 4. New regulatory framework, increases in taxation, and more social spending to alleviate wealth inequality. 5. Technological race between China and the US. Who will win? 6. The fiscal spending that is proposed by all world governments will be wasteful. Also Lacy Hunt shows that for each marginal spending of a unit of debt you are getting diminished returns. Right now USA, EU, Japan, and China are not generating enough cash flows to repay the debts through their fiscal spending. So I am expecting low growth and more debt on the balance sheet, and then the nuclear option will be exercised for a full outright helicopter money and possibly a default on the Sovereign debt! I am over wieght Gold, Gold Miners, and BTC. Please feel free to disagree and push back on my comment.
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eaThe insights on how this impacts EMs in the last 10-15 minutes are very valuable. As with most RV content, it's orth watching to the end!
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MSDr. Roubini is fantastic, his perspective and his reasoning. But please, you have to be able to formulate questions on-the-fly that allow for flow and discussion! The questions keep stopping him in his tracks. For a guest of this caliber, you cannot rely on pre-defined questions. Thank you for bringing us this unbelievable guest, but the interviewing was truly not up to standard.
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dwRoubini gives me agita.
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CTNouriel is wrong all the time. This matches the Paul Krugman interview perfectly. An absolute waste of time from a Status Quo parasite.
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PJOverall I thought it was a good interview, but jeez can that man talk. He only came up for air once every twenty minutes.
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BMHe is very well versed in the subject at hand!...he also looks like Gene Simmons of KISS...really! (That's not a bad thing...just a comment.)
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JDGreat interview! So glad you could get mr Roubini on; one of the brightest people in economics.
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BCooh - I need a break. No doubt gloom is on the horizon, or at least he has me convinced. The doc sure can talk.
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AASimply brilliant!
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JMI appreciate the benefits of globalization but I am here in Canada with no mask to be found anywhere because they all come from China and China is not exporting them. In response the Chief Medical Officer of Canada is trying to convince people that masks are unhelpful!
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DDYears ago I attended a small lunch with Nouriel presenting and Rosie (David Rosenberg) also in attendance. Not a very appetizing experience.
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jaWhen was this filmed? Thank
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JOThis guy is a bigger buzz kill than Yusko.
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MMThe prepars were right.
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jaWhere sorry
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GKi wish i could click the thump up 100 times...!
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DGWow excellent interview Ash. Lots of info there. Great guest.
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GKCan someone provide a link to this boom/bust signal Nouriel referenced several times in the first 15 minutes?
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BSDr. Roubini is incredibly well spoken and intelligent. Thanks again for providing the best content out there (RV team)!
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JHExcellent - thank you, Nouriel and Ash. Very interesting stuff. There are some important counterpoints to Nouriel’s points, but all data and thoughtful views of the future to me suggest his core thesis of upcoming stagflation is bang on the money. Thoroughly enjoyed this analysis, even if it is not hopeful for the time being. That’s ok. We do need realism.
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TZEverybody calling him Dr. Doom but the interview what he gave to Yahoo Finance I believe was pretty realistic.
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RYWhat a fantastic 'interview' ... Thank you Dr Roubini and Team RV ... Great ...
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PBPretty hard to argue with that.
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JSExcellent in a disturbing sort of way!
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ASDr Doom no doubt.
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wbWe are going to need a bigger boat!
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AIWhen even Dr. Doom runs out of breath listing all the different markets that the Fed is trying to bail out... Btw: the complete lock down and colored stamps were limited to a small part of China, most places were free to go around (except nowhere to go really).