Great Recession or Greater Depression?

Published on
April 1st, 2020
Duration
76 minutes


Great Recession or Greater Depression?

The Interview ·
Featuring Nouriel Roubini

Published on: April 1st, 2020 • Duration: 76 minutes

Dr. Nouriel Roubini returns for an in-depth analysis of the coronavirus crisis. Roubini explores coronavirus-related destruction in the real economy, the impact and shortcomings of the containment effort, and his view of the risks caused by an underlying debt bubble. He also explains to Real Vision's Ash Bennington the individual elements of the policy response with a special focus on monetary policy and the US dollar.

Comments

Transcript

  • SE
    Simon E.
    13 July 2020 @ 01:12
    Roubini can really rant, now he's a professional epidemiologist? Can't say walls don't stop a virus, and then in the same breath argue for lock-downs (which are less than a wall). Which is it mate?
  • CB
    Chris B.
    9 May 2020 @ 22:46
    Sadly, I am just getting to this interview. Incredible density of information such that I am going to have to watch at least one more time. Excellent interview by Ash.
  • DZ
    Dongbin Z.
    18 April 2020 @ 22:58
    37:30 Good intervention there. Kudos to the interviewer being on top of things.
  • TS
    Thomas S.
    16 April 2020 @ 23:01
    It's surprising how wrong this guy looks just 2 weeks after the interview. I can understand his nickname. Glad I waited before watching this one.
    • DZ
      Dongbin Z.
      18 April 2020 @ 22:18
      How is he wrong? His analysis was for the two months ahead. Logic no?
  • ML
    Michael L.
    5 April 2020 @ 19:27
    Thank you Nouriel, for your in-depth explanations. Kudos to Ash as well, for his patient and well-paced questions. Overall, an excellent interview for those seeking guidance and information in these unprecedented times.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      13 April 2020 @ 01:15
      Thanks, Michael.
  • LS
    Lemony S.
    1 April 2020 @ 15:19
    The "news" on the virus is totally overstated, it is a fantastic overreaction. I can show this already mathematically, as have many others who are not looking at this from an emotional or media driven point of view. Now, the fact remains that the Fed has used up its last bullets is certainly the case, and it seems that inflation as a result can easily result finally, as all have been waiting for. The economic situation is certainly poor, but it is artificial at this point since it was caused by an artificial/over reaction. Roubini shows he doesn't understand what is going on here health-wise, like most non health people (and sadly many in the health fields are emotional too), because cases mean nothing in themselves, especially if the lethality is not high (pro tip: it's not). It's just another story to add to a phenomenal news cycle, of which the economic situation IS truly a real story, but brought on by many false narratives.
    • JP
      Jim P.
      1 April 2020 @ 17:32
      https://peterattiamd.us15.list-manage.com/track/click?u=21bc5f75235505c27ce465f90&id=2125f1d4a7&e=f81ec39819
    • DS
      David S.
      1 April 2020 @ 20:40
      I guess you are in the "It is just the flu camp." You have many friends. DLS
    • RM
      Robert M.
      2 April 2020 @ 01:18
      Sound just like a far right politically oriented friend. Huge overreaction driven by the media - he moved from "just a cold" in early March to now saying "overreaction" . The thing that gets me is that there a lot of people canceling events in the music and sports worlds where those events make up a majority of their annual budget. These people, who are generally smart managers, are killing their annual income due to this overreaction. I don't think so. Just wonder how many people that see this as just a cold would be willing to volunteer themselves and family to get the virus so we can build herd immunity and be a source of antibodies for doctors to use on sick patients. Doubt we would see a lot of volunteers from this group.
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      2 April 2020 @ 19:03
      I'm not right/left or anything, we're talking pure epidemiology here. There is no excess mortality here. The numbers cannot, and won't, catch up even to the bad flu seasons of 2017 in the USA and Italy, for example. The virus has likely been around for months already, and there are localities far more affected (NYC, for example, like the smaller Italian cities that had max capacity and far more deaths in 2017 --- look it up) given the local culture and demographics. I watch and respect Attia, and if you notice he has been scaling back since previous days, just like all the embarrassingly incorrect models originally touted about a month ago (biggest flop being the Imperial Academy hoax of 500k down projected to 20k, whoops) --- but think of the bigger picture, he is a public figure and posts all these on instagram with a big following. Is he going to put his balls on the line and risk saying it's a nothing burger? Of course not. Advertisers might even pull the rug out on him. These are the times we are living in. Chris, your "volunteering" point isn't the plan and is sensational as well as irrelevant. Sweden has done the open up model, use some precaution for the at risk, and is perfectly fine. But go ahead and shut down the economy and act like it's no biggie. Give me a break, CFR is going to eventually 0.5% max for this [relative/media] hoax. Your lack of understanding of corporate structure, legalism and conformity is showing. I'm not that surprised.
    • CP
      Curt P.
      12 April 2020 @ 03:00
      COVID is a MacGuffin.
  • RS
    Ryan S.
    9 April 2020 @ 00:18
    Great interview and I take all of his points except one. The US is not not susceptible to oil shocks like all those other instances in the past where presidents were voted out of office after a single term in office. There is shale oil now.
    • MO
      Miguel O.
      11 April 2020 @ 05:50
      Shale is currently profitable at $35-$40...
  • VS
    Vafa S.
    9 April 2020 @ 13:56
    Great interview and interviewer. Would love to know his view on Gold and especially for non-US scenario
  • GT
    Gerald T.
    5 April 2020 @ 15:42
    He and others talk about mitigation/suppression measures as "stopping the virus". The only thing that will stop it is a vaccine in 12-18 months. Those measures are solely for managing the flow into the health care system i.e. flatten the curve. We are likely all going to be exposed to the virus before a vaccine. It would seem the fastest road to recovery would be a hospitalization rate just below what the health care system can handle. No one dare talk about an optimal death rate, but that is the tragic reality.
    • RS
      Ryan S.
      7 April 2020 @ 16:55
      Vaccine may be the only thing that stops the virus but there is a good chance we may have some drugs that server as antivirals and make the virus significantly less lethal in the near term. The whole technological focus of the world is on it and there are a number of promising drugs out there in the pipeline.
  • CT
    Chris T.
    6 April 2020 @ 08:03
    I always like to listen to him, but you would have lost a lot money if you had listened (and acted accordingly) the last couple of years.
  • JS
    Julia S.
    6 April 2020 @ 01:01
    Prof. Roubini explains concepts and macro inter-related effects so well, his teaching background shines through. Very much enjoyed this video. I’m sure we’re all hoping the 30% weighting he gives to a Greater Depression scenario doesn’t materialize!
  • IM
    Ilias M.
    5 April 2020 @ 21:01
    Amazing, excellent. Top. Worth paying for it. Thank you Both!!!!
  • TM
    The-First-James M.
    1 April 2020 @ 18:25
    Holy f***! I have a bearish disposition, but Nouriel makes me look like a raging bull in comparison!
    • BD
      Brian D.
      1 April 2020 @ 19:26
      I know, right?
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      1 April 2020 @ 20:32
      I feel like an optimist now. :D
    • DS
      David S.
      1 April 2020 @ 20:36
      He is just being realistic. Forget this optimistic/pessimistic duality. DLS
    • PC
      Paul C.
      5 April 2020 @ 20:05
      Lol..i know what you mean. I’m typing this from the window leeeeeeedge.
  • PS
    Pavel S.
    1 April 2020 @ 21:14
    Ash, Nouriel thank you so much. What an efficient transfer of knowledge in one hour! Amazing
    • PC
      Paul C.
      5 April 2020 @ 20:02
      Well said. I learnt so much. Took me two hours to watch, with all the notes i was making. Such passion in someone is a pleasure to witness. And Ash..great job in giving him enough time to not just get his view across, but also in letting him embellish and dig deeper. To a macro philistine like me, that is incredibly useful. Thank you. The pair of you.
  • TS
    Tamim S.
    2 April 2020 @ 19:31
    Something about the way this guy talks is unsettling, as if he's angrily yelling at the viewer the entire time.
    • KA
      Koka A.
      4 April 2020 @ 07:21
      And Ash looks kind of frightened))))
    • RK
      Roger K.
      5 April 2020 @ 19:53
      Please can we give him a break as it's not his first language.
  • MF
    Marc F.
    5 April 2020 @ 19:29
    such a great interview! Really enjoyed it
  • FK
    Faraj K.
    5 April 2020 @ 18:32
    Speaking of MMT, could you invite Nathan Tankus for an interview? Also Mosler or Prof. Werner.
    • JW
      Jon W.
      5 April 2020 @ 19:24
      There's https://www.realvision.com/shows/the-interview/videos/theory-vs-practice-the-father-of-mmt-on-policy-profits-and-politics
  • FB
    Floyd B.
    5 April 2020 @ 17:05
    NR loves to hear himself talk. He avoided the MOST important question that was asked ,that is actually what most successful deep thinkers ask themselves...how or where could I be wrong?
  • AK
    Arnold K.
    5 April 2020 @ 17:02
    This homie needs some chill. Good interviewer. In short, prolonged recession due to corona impact into next year, localization of production such as pharma leading to price of goods inflation, MMT, stagflation (recession + inflation). war with Iran after Iranian regime provokes conflict in ME to deflect from internal troubles, oil price spikes +$100, USD is safe haven, bottom is not in. rally is a ded cat bounce - corona contagion and economic news is not priced in, more fiscal policies (3+) could happen to feed starving households.
  • JS
    Jürgen S.
    5 April 2020 @ 14:44
    Excellent interview.
  • DP
    D P.
    4 April 2020 @ 19:27
    Ash did a great job in this interview.
  • PS
    Pavel S.
    2 April 2020 @ 18:39
    I just watched for second time and took key points from Nuriel´s case: AGREGGATE DEMAND - income of households going to zero - fiscal stimulus not reaching households fast enough and targeted enough - riots in the streets likely - Gig economy means people get laid off fast and without compensation and 0 cash - Virus not contained = economy does not open = households will struggle for a long time - this will not get better until the health crisis is solved (and that´s been an utter fail so far) Overall, in the short run we are facing the demand shock above. You can deal with it via fiscal stimulus. However, over time there comes a supply shock too. SUPPLY SHOCK - over time the shut down of economy reduces output - lower output = higher prices of goods and services - deglobalization, reshoring, tarrifs, local protectionalism, inward policies, shattering of supply chains all contribute to the massive supply shock = prices will go up as we produce in the west with higher costs - you fiscalise it and monetise it and eventually come up with STAGFLATION (=recession because output can´t grow due to virus & inflation of goods and services due to unlimited MMT QE) COMPARISON to 1970s and 2008 and 2020 - in 2008 credit shock led to collapse in Aggregate demand, wages going down, prices going down === DEFLATION. As a result we were able to get out of it via stimulus - 1970s crisis was similar we had fiscal and monetary stimulus and ended up with double digit inflation - 2020 covid-19 crisis has a massive negative supply shock so we will end up with stagflation if we do monetary and fiscal stimulus on it (more dollars chase less goods) - overall Nuriel believes we will face a greater recession, worse than in 2008 because we inherited the fragile economy and have both supply shock, demand shock as well as trade wars and oil shocks. This is base case with 60% DEPRESSION RISKS (30% case by Nuriel) - until winter 2020 the virus could mutate and come back worse - risk of wars in Middle East (US vs Iran) - prolonging geopolitical shocks, supply chains shattered, local protectionism getting deeper OTHER REMARKS - share buybacks made CEOs rich, privatising gains, socialising losses, corporations became fragile due to high leverage and thinner capitalisation - there is a lot of distress in credit markets amplifying the risk of scramble on cash and flight for liquidity - USD swaps solve the USD strength for big 7 economies, but not for EMs who will need dollars - systemic risk is coming from the excessive debt in the credit markets MY TAKEAWAYS: - you want to have gold and bitcoin in the stagflation environment - bet on strong USD makes more sense against the EMs so for example long USD-BRL (real of Brasil) has more potential as they have no central bank swaps, whilst the long UUP bet is probably less potential (I will still keep it because I believe US is in better shape than EU etc)
    • JM
      Jeff M.
      2 April 2020 @ 18:43
      Thanks for the synopsis. Short on time so I just read your takeaways rather than watching. Very helpful!
    • PS
      Pavel S.
      2 April 2020 @ 19:45
      You should still watch, Jeff. From all videos I watched in last 3 weeks Nouriel's case and reasoning feels most logical and well articulated. He is also in line with Raoul btw.
    • BM
      Beth M.
      3 April 2020 @ 01:38
      Well done Pavel...my prayer is a different outcome...but we just never learn...even so come Lord Jesus!
    • VS
      Vytautas S.
      3 April 2020 @ 20:39
      He has been quite harsh talking about Bitcoin though. I know him quite well from crypto and bitcoin conferences were he gets invited to represent the opposite view. He says that Bitcoin is the mother of all baubles and it's much worse than tulipmania. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V2lwyuSrCg4
    • PS
      Pavel S.
      4 April 2020 @ 10:49
      I know. I am a crypto guy, too. We all know Nouriel is wrong about bitcoin as he did not do his proper homework on it yet. It does not stop me from respecting him big time on macro.
  • DS
    David S.
    1 April 2020 @ 21:36
    Fantastic interview. Consistent with Dr. Roubini's analyses in the past. Mr. Bennington did a fantastic job. DLS
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      1 April 2020 @ 22:39
      Thanks, David.
    • DS
      David S.
      4 April 2020 @ 07:16
      Ash B. - You earned it. DLS
  • JE
    James E.
    1 April 2020 @ 20:38
    I'm sorry but saying millions are going to die is silly, this virus peaks in months, not years. The amount of immunity in the community is unknown because of not enough testing. Totally over the top estimates. It's the economy that matters when the virus runs it's course, please concentrate on that.
    • JG
      Judith G.
      2 April 2020 @ 14:15
      I think he is globally oriented, and if we don't get effective therapeutics soon, one or two million certainly could die globally.
    • Av
      Arthur v.
      3 April 2020 @ 22:54
      I live in a small country Andorra. We do more testing per million of population as Germany and South Korea. We have just ordered 150K antibody test kits to test the whole population of 75K to find out herd immunity rates. Plus we have also expanded hospital ICU and ventilators to deal with more volume. The idea of this test is how far can the economy be opened whilst still providing care. This would be interesting to watch for other countries.
  • BM
    Beth M.
    3 April 2020 @ 01:00
    Even though this implies worst cast scenarios ...I choose to look at the bright side...and even though I am a boomer...I can totally dig this millennial generation anthem...stay positive https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DL7-CKirWZE
  • HH
    Henry H.
    2 April 2020 @ 22:14
    I heard term Thucydides trap being mentioned. Another great RV classic that people should watch if not already is the interview of Graham Allison by Kyle Bass.
  • MT
    Mark T.
    1 April 2020 @ 22:22
    I disagree with the Doctor about Iran.
    • RM
      Robert M.
      2 April 2020 @ 00:59
      That was certainly an interesting prediction. With his ties to that part of the world, will be interesting to see if it happens.
    • ZT
      Zach T.
      2 April 2020 @ 03:22
      Did you see Trump's tweet today about Iran?
    • RM
      Robert M.
      2 April 2020 @ 22:02
      In today's WSJ, April 2, article titled "Iran or Allies Are Plotting Against U.S. Forces in Iraq, U.S. Intelligence Suggests."
  • BO
    Barry O.
    2 April 2020 @ 18:02
    Excellent and informative interview. Thank you so much for providing such great content. Stay safe out there.
  • BP
    Brian P.
    2 April 2020 @ 17:40
    Dr. Nouriel is Legit! He definitely knows what he is talking about.
  • mb
    mike b.
    1 April 2020 @ 23:48
    This guy never misses a chance to be pessimistic and wanting the world to end. Buy another weird shaped mirror
    • PS
      Peter S.
      2 April 2020 @ 16:02
      That's funny.
  • MH
    Martin H.
    2 April 2020 @ 03:42
    No shutdown was required. Test and isolate on a large scale. We've seen it work. We should be banging out heaps of tests and not so many vents. . This shut down will kill more people than the damn disease over time.
    • JM
      John M.
      2 April 2020 @ 15:59
      Seems obvious, test everyone (not easy to do but not impossible). Isolate infected. Others can go back to work.
  • RG
    Razmig G.
    2 April 2020 @ 07:57
    Glad to see that he has it all mapped out. Many snags in his thesis. I found myself laughing for some reason at times.
    • AH
      Alexander H.
      2 April 2020 @ 14:02
      what snags?
  • KD
    Kelley D.
    2 April 2020 @ 12:57
    I absolutely loves this content..noted that he did not stop to breath till 44 minutes to go! Great job
  • RM
    Russell M.
    2 April 2020 @ 12:17
    There is a potential Covid 19 treatment game changer that preliminary results indicate reverses the lung inflammation and eliminates the need for ventilators. This could allow the end of quarantine everywhere and allow the economy to start to restart. See https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/CYDY/news?id=258232. Disclosure I am long CYDY.
  • Am
    Abdul m.
    1 April 2020 @ 06:43
    Great interview. I wonder what his view is on gold, especially in a scenario were we get stagflation.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      1 April 2020 @ 07:56
      Very interesting question. I'll ask him next time.
    • RM
      Richard M.
      1 April 2020 @ 12:51
      Ash, it is a good question! Maybe you could just email him and ask and then post the response here on the message board. (Just a thought <smile>)!
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      1 April 2020 @ 14:07
      I should add: It's interesting especially because Nouriel hasn't been constructive on gold in past crises, esp GFC — but, as he points out in this interview, he now sees the rising specter of inflation risk in the longer term, which is a certainly a shift.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      1 April 2020 @ 14:08
      RICHARD M: We hope to have him back again soon!
    • RM
      Richard M.
      1 April 2020 @ 14:17
      Ash, thank you for your quick response! After finally finishing the interview, with him repeatedly suggesting a return to the 1970's style stagflation I think the gold question is moot <smile>. Gold positive in other words!
    • DS
      David S.
      1 April 2020 @ 21:31
      For me cash is king for now. I will add to gold as soon as the cash crunch is abating. Of course, I can change my mind at a moments notice. My buy/sell orders do not move markets. DLS
    • AF
      Anoop F.
      2 April 2020 @ 11:31
      And bitcoin as well. Would be great to know how he views the crypto space against the backdrop of his macro views. Fantastic interview.
  • DF
    David F.
    2 April 2020 @ 11:17
    Lovely to have a clear well-reasoned understanding of the problem and possible outcomes. Fantastic.
  • RY
    Roy Y.
    2 April 2020 @ 10:13
    Awesome ....
  • CH
    Corey H.
    2 April 2020 @ 08:52
    Actually glad he was able to speak in an uninterrupted manner. Mainstream media only gives him 15 min. tops.
  • sh
    steve h.
    1 April 2020 @ 21:06
    NO MORE DOCTOR DOOM......ECONOMISTS....GROSS...please shut UUUUUUP!!!
    • RV
      Ryan V.
      1 April 2020 @ 21:35
      Found the guy who is levered long
    • sh
      steve h.
      1 April 2020 @ 23:40
      SORRY IN CASH FOR OVER A MONTH TRADING AROUND TLT. MADE SO MUCH LAST YEAR THANKS HEDGEYE... JUST DONT LIKE STUPID ECONOMISTS
    • CH
      Christoph H.
      2 April 2020 @ 06:07
      Steve h, which subscription to hedgeye do you have? Thanks
  • RW
    Robert W.
    1 April 2020 @ 20:07
    That’s all fine,,,,why cant all of these genius commentators at the very least come up with a policy response of their own
    • DS
      David S.
      1 April 2020 @ 20:33
      We are so far down the rabbit hole, no one can implement policies that will save us without a great deal of pain. We kicked the can down a dead-end alley. There is only a warehouse wall in front of us. We chose to listen to people we knew were lying to be part of the in crowd. It is shocking how many major talking heads said that last week was the bottom of the market. Each were just talking their book. Dr. Roubini and many others on RVTV told us this story for years. Only the few listened. You cannot ask Sir Isaac Newton to save you after you leaped off the cliff. DLS
    • JL
      Jack L.
      2 April 2020 @ 05:37
      But you can buy SPY / VOO PUTs. Hep-hep! Chin up, ladies and gentlemen!
  • VP
    Vincent P.
    2 April 2020 @ 05:33
    "I don't know what they are smoking, something strange quite frankly" LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
  • ML
    Mike L.
    2 April 2020 @ 04:44
    Nouriel is brilliant. He also has the shiniest fridge (and a piano) I've seen.
  • EA
    EMRAH A.
    2 April 2020 @ 04:12
    What about a series of sovereign defaults? Lebanon already first, South Africa, Turkey, Argentina and many others may follow. This would be the perfect time for that. I agree IMF applications are temporary, but the problems, the supply chain problems, the health situation, concurrent demand and supply shocks are resident for a few years. Why not consider a lot of defaults at the same time?
  • LA
    Linda A.
    2 April 2020 @ 03:41
    Thank u Dr. Roubini, u are thoughtful & passionate. Glad to hear that he does not support corporate bailouts. I would support my tax dollars going towards social programs i.e elderly, disabled etc. & vs.bailing out selfish corps that spend billions to buy back their stock then drive their co's to the brinkk of bankruptcy. Ash- great job on interviewing - great ques & rapport!
  • JG
    Johan G.
    1 April 2020 @ 12:15
    His analysis is unfortunately realistic in my humble opinion. I wish he was wrong. The underlying problem in the whole western world is that we have been delusional about so many things. 1. Believing that we can let debt outgrow GDP forever without any consequences. 2.Letting a mercantilist state,China, into a free trade organisation, WHO 3. Letting the financial sector and top management of public companies plunder the real capital of our corporations, under the excuse 'we are worth our pay'. 4.Letting down society's middle class and expecting them to just take it on the chin. Privatise the gains, socialise the losses. 5.Letting big corporations create de facto monopolies. The father of capitalism Adam Smith would have turned away in disgust! We need to be realistic; it is a long haul to fix this....
    • MK
      Mike K.
      2 April 2020 @ 01:56
      So much here to unpack. But frankly there is a lot of backward looking observations (mostly known), with forward looking opinion, that's not based on any quantitative measures. Unfortunately very little actionable edge.
    • GB
      Gold B.
      2 April 2020 @ 03:26
      to Mike K: the trading implications of this dire perspective (if you believe it) are of course not immediately clear.... But they are enormous if you think it through.
  • AA
    Aaron A.
    2 April 2020 @ 00:39
    China is lying! How could anyone believe data out of the ccp?!?!
    • sz
      shuai z.
      2 April 2020 @ 03:06
      But which level.
  • YB
    Yuriy B.
    1 April 2020 @ 23:25
    Extremely well-reasoned. I had never heard Roubini speak before. Wish I had started listening to him sooner!
    • RM
      Robert M.
      2 April 2020 @ 00:58
      He is definitely passionate about his world view. Thought it was a good interview.
  • DS
    David S.
    1 April 2020 @ 22:43
    Warm weather may slow down Coronavirus spread, but Southern Hemisphere countries are reporting more cases in the hot part of their summer. DLS
  • AM
    Alvaro M.
    1 April 2020 @ 21:51
    Compelling message... although its over the top one has to consider he could be spot on. Even if Dr. Roubini is in the general ballpark it's going to hammer the populous that's already on life support from the last GFC. Bet he is a hit at dinner parties after a few vinos.
  • WM
    William M.
    1 April 2020 @ 09:41
    I really wish I could say Dr. Roubini is wrong and everything will bounce back soon, but he seems very on target and the stock market still seems way too complacent about the potential for $250 trillion in global debt to implode. MMT and debt forgiveness have only started...we are embarking on a great big experiment. Let's hope some genius comes up with a vaccine soon!
    • DS
      David S.
      1 April 2020 @ 21:23
      William M. - I hope we come up with a vaccine ASAP also. As far as the markets, the debt/pension genie is out of the bottle. DLS
  • TS
    Theodoros S.
    1 April 2020 @ 21:22
    Realism = Pessimism^2 However I agree with Dr. Roubini but I believe in the following: "We must free ourselves of the hope that the sea will ever rest. We must learn to sail in high winds", said by Aristotle Onassis. So lets hope humanity learns..and sails in high winds
  • WA
    Wissam A.
    1 April 2020 @ 11:03
    I agree with Dr. Roubini that the markets currently are not pricing risk appropriately. I am anticipating the following regime shifts: 1.De-globalization and supply chain disruptions. After the the way China has handled the covid-19 pandemic it is most likely that manufacturing that is deemed essential to national security will return to USA. Anything else will be shifted to friendly countries like Mexico, Canada, India etc. 2. US China cold war. This will intensify the supply chain disruptions and will create three trading blocks. The first one is the American block, the second one is the EU block, and the third one is the China block. So countries will have to choose which block they want to be in for trading. 3. Consumers and companies will deleverage at the same time Governments will expand their balance sheets to pay retirees, bailouts of all kinds, combat deflation and create inflation at whatever cost to inflate the debt in real terms. So expect debt monetization outright, and the FED capping rates across the curve. This will be true also in EU and China who have the same problem as the US. 4. New regulatory framework, increases in taxation, and more social spending to alleviate wealth inequality. 5. Technological race between China and the US. Who will win? 6. The fiscal spending that is proposed by all world governments will be wasteful. Also Lacy Hunt shows that for each marginal spending of a unit of debt you are getting diminished returns. Right now USA, EU, Japan, and China are not generating enough cash flows to repay the debts through their fiscal spending. So I am expecting low growth and more debt on the balance sheet, and then the nuclear option will be exercised for a full outright helicopter money and possibly a default on the Sovereign debt! I am over wieght Gold, Gold Miners, and BTC. Please feel free to disagree and push back on my comment.
    • PD
      Peter D.
      1 April 2020 @ 11:13
      Interesting assessment. Maybe Raoul should interview you.
    • BB
      Byte B.
      1 April 2020 @ 15:22
      "De-Globalization" occurs when trade is reduced, if we're switching to a competing countries willing to be our ally instead of adversary, that's probably a good thing and is "Re-Globalization," if anything. The U.S. producing more of it's own things has it pros and cons, but in my eyes there are more pros than cons: --It is more expensive, but the money goes back into the hands of americans...recirculating in the economy-something that is always ignored by economists because it's very difficult to predict and calculate accurately. --We can't/shouldn't rely on anyone else for mission critical supplies. --We can better protect the environment when we can oversee production. U.S. china cold war has been going on for a while. The U.S. won WWI, WWII, Cold War I, and will probably win Cold War II. We are not a perfect nation, nor have we ever been even remotely close to perfect!! We've always been barely functional! (read "Economic History of the United States" by Douglas North) Other nations grow faster than us, but end up imploding due to the centralization of power--wiping away all gains. It turns out in order to win, you only need to foster slow, steady, compounding growth without imploding/centralizing power. Debt Jubilees and deleveraging aren't that bad if handled correctly. The Fed will probably go the way of Japan and buy up most of the debt, only to wipe away the obligations in due time. As long as we get a few key regulations passed to keep debt in check, we'll be fine. Technological race between Russia and US, who won? Russia stole lots of fundamental science coming out of the US and other nations. U.S. has many more irreverent scientists willing and able to take risks and be independent. You need this in order to maximize scientific output. Does an authoritarian regime who punishes the scientist who publicized COVID-19 sound like pleasant place to do great science? If you take money from the CCP(willingly or by force), will you be able to explore and take scientific risks, knowing that if you fail there will be harsh consequences? "Fiscal spending in the U.S. will be wasteful."--OK? but maybe all you need is for spending to increase to get recover from the current headwinds. Not to mention, we can afford more inflation than ever, due to an aging population and automation, both occurring at an unprecedented scale. We **should** be printing money and giving to businesses and people. I'd prefer most of it go directly to people, but hey, gotta start somewhere. The Fed sees the pension crisis and the debt crisis, and they know we could go into a depression, so they're going to use every ounce of power invested in them to pump our way out of both the pension and debt crisis. The point is, there's risk of a melt up, not just a melt down. Other counties that have stock piled gold might have to sell, keeping price flat or down for a couple years before any meaningful price movements. In the mean time, stocks could keep climbing, backed by an infinite Fed balance sheet and slowly growing economy. I say these things not in spite, but is pleasant discourse. I wish you and your portfolio the very best. May we all ride the next wave of money printing to the moon, and may the printer always go brrrrrr! <3
    • DS
      David S.
      1 April 2020 @ 21:19
      Wissam A. and Byte B. – Great constructive commentaries! DLS
  • ea
    edwin a.
    1 April 2020 @ 21:18
    The insights on how this impacts EMs in the last 10-15 minutes are very valuable. As with most RV content, it's orth watching to the end!
  • MS
    Marius S.
    1 April 2020 @ 11:58
    Dr. Roubini is fantastic, his perspective and his reasoning. But please, you have to be able to formulate questions on-the-fly that allow for flow and discussion! The questions keep stopping him in his tracks. For a guest of this caliber, you cannot rely on pre-defined questions. Thank you for bringing us this unbelievable guest, but the interviewing was truly not up to standard.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      1 April 2020 @ 14:42
      Marius, Two points: (1) One of the small challenges of doing remote interviews via Skype is that it's a bit more challenging to break in during conversation because of connection lag and latency. That's something we're working on and expect to see improve. (2) I stay pretty well-read into Nouriel's work. (Disclosure: I used to run Nouriel's macro econ blog.) In this case, my goal was to make sure to get in Nouriel's expansive views on the current crisis. With Nouriel, all of his views tend to be connected in to a broader framework in a way that benefits from unfolding their full scope. —Ash
    • JH
      Jon H.
      1 April 2020 @ 19:05
      Marius, Ash, I'm so satisfied with the reporter. It was a great pleasure to hear him connect the dots, knock-on effects etc. uninterrupted
    • DS
      David S.
      1 April 2020 @ 21:10
      Mr. Bennington – You did a fantastic job. Dr. Roubini is a whirlwind of economic knowledge, experience and understanding. I feel privileged to listen to Dr. Roubini on RVTV being interviewed by you. I respect and understand Marius S.'s position, but I feel that no other interviewer could have done a better job. Thanks. DLS
  • dw
    douglas w.
    1 April 2020 @ 20:50
    Roubini gives me agita.
  • CT
    Crispim T.
    1 April 2020 @ 13:49
    Nouriel is wrong all the time. This matches the Paul Krugman interview perfectly. An absolute waste of time from a Status Quo parasite.
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      1 April 2020 @ 14:56
      I've noticed this over the last 5 interviews and articles written by him in MSM. He is also a rabid anti-Trumper, TDS victim. "Climate Change" even made it into his last op-ed analysis on whichever MSM financial site. Of course he is going to accurately portray some things, but he is ultimately a politically motivated guy, just look at his personal history and comments over the years. We tend to lionize the guys who "made a prediction" that was correct (like Roubini was warning up to 2008) and then expect them to repeat something of that value, not understanding likely that most of it, while suggested, wasn't as much a prediction as it was storytelling. Luckier than good. Schiff is a good example of this as well, I like the guy, but after a while it's like me telling people "One day I'm gonna die" over and over again; not that valuable information when we are aware of reality, cycles, etc --- timing IS everything, ultimately.
    • CK
      Cameron K.
      1 April 2020 @ 19:35
      Good thing you’re not politically motivated Lemony S.
    • DS
      David S.
      1 April 2020 @ 20:46
      I am following the wisdom of Mark Twain. DLS
  • PJ
    Peter J.
    1 April 2020 @ 15:10
    Overall I thought it was a good interview, but jeez can that man talk. He only came up for air once every twenty minutes.
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      1 April 2020 @ 15:20
      I thought the same thing --- I'm setting the over/under for Nouriel at 5 turkish coffees before that interview.
    • DS
      David S.
      1 April 2020 @ 20:43
      Dr. Roubini has a lot to say. He understands the problem on many levels. He tried his best to help investors and politicians the problems for years. He is trying to tie all the loose ends together so people will listen. DLS
  • BM
    Beth M.
    1 April 2020 @ 20:21
    He is very well versed in the subject at hand!...he also looks like Gene Simmons of KISS...really! (That's not a bad thing...just a comment.)
  • JD
    Jan D.
    1 April 2020 @ 20:16
    Great interview! So glad you could get mr Roubini on; one of the brightest people in economics.
  • BC
    Ben C.
    1 April 2020 @ 20:01
    ooh - I need a break. No doubt gloom is on the horizon, or at least he has me convinced. The doc sure can talk.
  • AA
    Aymman A.
    1 April 2020 @ 19:48
    Simply brilliant!
  • JM
    John M.
    1 April 2020 @ 15:58
    I appreciate the benefits of globalization but I am here in Canada with no mask to be found anywhere because they all come from China and China is not exporting them. In response the Chief Medical Officer of Canada is trying to convince people that masks are unhelpful!
    • PC
      Petros C.
      1 April 2020 @ 19:45
      China has PPE supplies available for export, but someone has to buy them. I read on the news earlier today that a chartered Antonov plane landed in my domicile country (Europe) with 80 tons of medical supplies. Converted passenger planes have been arriving with medical cargo from China every other day.
  • DD
    Dylan D.
    1 April 2020 @ 19:31
    Years ago I attended a small lunch with Nouriel presenting and Rosie (David Rosenberg) also in attendance. Not a very appetizing experience.
  • ja
    juan a.
    1 April 2020 @ 18:15
    When was this filmed? Thank
    • DG
      Dave G.
      1 April 2020 @ 19:29
      From what was said I would say 2 daysago. Like March 30th
  • JO
    J O.
    1 April 2020 @ 18:57
    This guy is a bigger buzz kill than Yusko.
  • MM
    M. M.
    1 April 2020 @ 18:51
    The prepars were right.
  • ja
    juan a.
    1 April 2020 @ 18:15
    Where sorry
  • GK
    GRIGORIOS K.
    1 April 2020 @ 18:00
    i wish i could click the thump up 100 times...!
  • DG
    Dave G.
    1 April 2020 @ 17:27
    Wow excellent interview Ash. Lots of info there. Great guest.
  • GK
    Grayson K.
    1 April 2020 @ 15:36
    Can someone provide a link to this boom/bust signal Nouriel referenced several times in the first 15 minutes?
    • JA
      JAVIER A.
      1 April 2020 @ 16:38
      https://www.theboombust.com/
  • BS
    Bevyn S.
    1 April 2020 @ 16:29
    Dr. Roubini is incredibly well spoken and intelligent. Thanks again for providing the best content out there (RV team)!
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    1 April 2020 @ 14:40
    Excellent - thank you, Nouriel and Ash. Very interesting stuff. There are some important counterpoints to Nouriel’s points, but all data and thoughtful views of the future to me suggest his core thesis of upcoming stagflation is bang on the money. Thoroughly enjoyed this analysis, even if it is not hopeful for the time being. That’s ok. We do need realism.
  • TZ
    Tibor Z.
    1 April 2020 @ 13:22
    Everybody calling him Dr. Doom but the interview what he gave to Yahoo Finance I believe was pretty realistic.
  • RY
    Roy Y.
    1 April 2020 @ 13:19
    What a fantastic 'interview' ... Thank you Dr Roubini and Team RV ... Great ...
  • PB
    Paul B.
    1 April 2020 @ 10:21
    Pretty hard to argue with that.
  • JS
    John S.
    1 April 2020 @ 09:12
    Excellent in a disturbing sort of way!
  • AS
    Adrian S.
    1 April 2020 @ 07:46
    Dr Doom no doubt.
    • DS
      David S.
      1 April 2020 @ 08:45
      Adrian S. - Dr. Roubini is correct from both a common sense and a theoretical point of view. The pandemic just reveals the flawed economy we created. There is no free lunch. Why do we have to keep proving it? DLS
  • wb
    willem b.
    1 April 2020 @ 08:29
    We are going to need a bigger boat!
  • AI
    Andras I.
    1 April 2020 @ 07:59
    When even Dr. Doom runs out of breath listing all the different markets that the Fed is trying to bail out... Btw: the complete lock down and colored stamps were limited to a small part of China, most places were free to go around (except nowhere to go really).