The only way to restart the economy is to go to a complete shutdown for at least 2,5-3 months. Each and every nation has to be isolated. Military on the streets to force people for quarantine. If you broke the rule you pay or forced service in the military fighting against the virus or can go to jail. An online portal where you have to report your travel. Let's say you go to the pharmacy or to the doctor. IF they catch you outside without a logged period you will get fined etc...After 3 months lets say the EU can open up it's borders within the member states. We need a border control that the world has never seen before because if only one illegally smuggled person gets through who is infected within 3 months the quarantine starts all over again! No external flights and only the most essential imports/export. Cargo coming into the EU need a 3 week storing (virus survives up to 17 days) and disinfect everything afterwards. Infrastructure has to rapidly evolve to this and recreate alternative supply chains. This have to go on as long as vaccination is ready, manufactured , distributed and injected into billions of people around the globe. Or an antibody, alternative medication discovered for this what makes it a harmless infection. I am wondering how long it takes for the so called world leaders to figure this out. These are my personal opinion about this issue. You can agree or disagree but I think without measurements like this we are going to in and out of quarantine for up till 18 months which makes no sense. The economy and the people will suffer longer by not doing the above mentioned.

Grice's twitter headline: "People with a different worldview are not necessarily assholes. People who think that people with a different worldview are assholes are." Uhhhh, not necessarily. But I do remember my 20s!

"The difference between a fully hedged index, and just a naked index is 90 basis points" Can someone at RV pls confirm what exact DB indices Dylan used to confirm this? Struggling to find it. Thanks a lot

Very insightful but Raoul please ditch the blasphemy

Interesting and had a lot of fun watching it. Many thanks

Please stop this war comparison. Hitler killed 6M Jews. Stalin 100M people. And those are just two dictators. Covid has killed so far 57000 people worldwide. 98.8% of Italian victims had pre-existing condition. Governments are so incompetent they cannot even agree on how to count deaths and infections. I wouldn't be surprised if there were millions of asymptomatic cases, which would mean the virus is not that lethal and that quarantines are meaningless. Early to come to a conclusion, but to me the cure is much, much worse than the problem. And I cannot help but thinking that governments know that, and that they *want* the cure to lead to a disaster.

Does anyone have any information on the etf that includes the put “insurance” at 98 basis points? I have not been able to find this...

Really didn’t add much

I agree with the Russian Bank....Don't agree with Uranium..."Thorium Salt Water Breeder Reactors" are the future. There is a very good reason why Uranium is cheap. It becomes a byproduct of a Thorium Reactor. The other reason is the Real Climate change has everything to do with magnetism. Good luck taming that Beast, it has a cycle and we are in it.

I love 'The Intersection'...I have to work at it not to fast forward.

Interesting conversation. Thank you!

Excellent interview!! Several ideas to explore, and a book to read. Thank you, RealVision!

Raoul has been talking about HYG in several of his videos over the last month. Would it be possible to publish an interview dedicated to HYG and related issues (credit risk, Fed response)? Thanks!

Fantastic! this is what RV is all about...top thinkers with lots of humor :)

Raoul, Great interview and well timed.

Raoul, when things were melting down a few weeks ago, you warned to get out of $GLD because too many people own it, and it doesn't work in a crisis (though, of course, you think on the other side gold will be a great asset). Do you think that is still the case -- that is, it seems not much has changed, and one can't find a gold bear anywhere? Thank you!

Damn, that was a great interview ! Will go and have a contrarian Scotch (from India, just to annoy the Scots :-), think about it some more and re-listen later. Would love to have been part of this interview myself ! :-) Excellent. Thanks.

So I've only heard bad news around the covid-19. But even the experts admit they can't understand it completely,--we can't do good science without good data, and no one has good data! (Source from one of the experts: https://twitter.com/gro_tsen/status/1241745979663155203?s=20 ) Therefore, one must discuss the negative and positive outcomes and try to be prepared for both. In addition to questions proposed in this interview, I'd like to propose others: --The virus might stop reaking havoc within weeks, not months, what then? --What if the "mental scaring" is overwhelmed by a feeling of winning a war against an invisible enemy or a feeling of togetherness, a connection to others who you've weathered a storm with? After crisis communities and nations come together, not apart!--See 9/11, Hurricane Katrina, etc. --What if the Fed and Fiscal stimulus ends up being too much, not too little? I ask these questions not in any form of malice, but in effort to get us all mentally prepared for continuation of a bull market. Right now everyone is rightfully stuck in panic mode. But as disciplined investors and traders, we must prepare our mental models of the world to fit both bullish and bearish outcomes, as no one is perfect at predicting the future. Please don't get trapped in panic, I've done that a thousand times. It's not pleasant, and it certainly isn't profitable. <3

Great interview loved it. My Brexit percentages were the same numbers but reversed.

fantastic

Awesome interview. Thanks RV

Time for more uranium. uuuu? ura? cameco? all of them? Can a cheap stock defy this likely market gravity? thx!

I'll have whatever he's having.....

Absolutely brilliant!!

"If you created a portfolio that works, it would make you want to puke." hahaha! This is so great.

Do the hard work to attain what is hard. eh? Totally true.

Did this guy really just suggest to invest in CLOs at the beginning of a credit crisis? I feel like I am the only person in the world who thinks that the entire credit market works as an investment only if you can sell back to the Fed before it defaults in your face.

Didn’t John Hussman essentially hedge his fund by buying put options? If that strategy didn’t cost much why did his fund fall so far for so long?

Wow...incredible stuff.

Amazing interview, absolutely brilliant.

Dylan should be a comedian in his next profession. He is hilarious. Great interview.

this interview did not convinced me

You really didnt know what was in HYG? Wow, now I feel like I'm actually doing my homework! Centene was one of the biggest holdings, but I dont know how LQD downgrades to junk would affect HYG... any ideas on that?

Filmed on?

Excellent presentation. It has been a long time since Mr. Grice’s first short interview in 2014 with Mr. Williams. This seven-minute interview has always been one of my favorites. His discussion of capital vis-à-vis money/credit is excellent. He improved his prop desk story now by understanding the others could not forecast accurately either - two Socratic moments. Since then he has become an active trader by realizing no one knows, but one can make informed trades. I especially loved the story about how the people he hired have informed him. In addition, he realized that he had something to offer as well. The best of luck to Mr. Grice. Enjoy Switzerland. A favorite place for both stunning beauty and wonderful people. DLS

given the Scottish accent... makes me think Hugh Hendry would be a very interesting guest to get on given his macro and china views

Wow. I reckon Dylan would be an awesome bloke to share a pint with! Amazing insight and some laugh out loud moments. :) From one leave voter to another, I know exactly what he means, re. Remainer vitriol and the feelimg of needing to just keep your head down in certain company.

Fantastic, years in the making and looking forward to the next one already. Recommend googling "cred and credulity" for those new to his work.

Could someone please provide the link to the Singapore PM’s comments that Raoul mentions? Thanks

Interesting, i was also a 55-45% supporter of Brexit in 2016 and went through a similar experience. Shifted to 100%, with subsequent events with much less push back.

Hang on. I had to pause this and go get a Guinness. Thankful for the caption option.

Beautiful

Love it!

Fantastically engaging .... Thank you .

What is the film date please?!

have heard same thing in past re uranium, 2x went into URA and CCJ and got stopped out both times. but at least Dylan says he thinks its real long term play so maybe no stops this time i go in....a 5 or 10x would be nice, even if it takes years

Superb stuff from Dylan and lovely guy. Thoroughly enjoyed this one. He really made me think differently and more deeply than before.

Fantastic interview.

Excellent content and delivery.

Superficial, but these things matter: Raoul should do something (anything!) to improve his lighting situation a bit. ;)

People were asking if you could publish you video faster... RV respond to ALL theses comments, you Deleted the filmed date ? I dont understand, im not the only one, why aren't you putting back the filmed dates ? AH yes i remember, you dont want to deal with comments about publishing faster...

Dylan is a genius who explains politely what with hindsight we all as investors realise we should have recognised using common sense, but sadly unlike him most of us allow emotion to cloud those decisions. Based on performance data, it would appear only a small percentage of professional managers observe the disciplines Dylan espouses, which is probably why sadly so many retail investors have gone from the frying pan into the fire and opted for passive strategies. Fantastically insightful and educational. Thank you RV.

Thank you for the speed up button. 1.5x on this one.

It just gets better and better. Thanks.

Interview Nassim Nicholas Taleb next?? ;-)

Brilliant interview, and Dylan comes accross as a likable and humble guy as well.

Interesting.... Struck by the fact that Dylan's assessments related to value seem tide to a matrix that he acknowledges is broken, but he is still utilising past reference points.... Junk bonds were a case in point for me... Reference to max historic default rates has no baring in this circumstance so his prospective returns of 4% look err... optimistic... but to be fair, he did say he would only nibble...! What is so helpful though is to be provoked into thinking harder.... and thats what his perspectives made me do .... so hence the Thanks!

Not sure if I missed it or if there's another comment, but can you post when this interviews were conducted for perspective in the fast moving times?

What an absolute pleasure this guy is! Thoroughly enjoyed this

Great conversation . Dylan is a great guest and understanding his thought process through the current world is eye opening. Interesting his views are more positive than other people on Real Vision at the moment. Well explained with his position behind his motivations and views on the market, where he will find opportunity and the fact it comes down to doing the work.

Missing the closed captions.

Could you please add a caption for the video. Thank you

Raoul, Lets have a round of pool someday?

I've followed Dylan since his times at Société Générale. Total contrarian. Really enjoyed his diverging POV, a tad too dogmatic then IMO. I see him today as a more pragmatic individual and today, I appreciate even more his ideas. Great interview guys. Thanks!

I have thoroughly enjoyed this! Sober, clear and hilarious.

Brilliant!

Dylan...very candid and thoughtful responses to good questions. Great perspective from a professional strategist in a large EU family office who has to be invested in markets (and doesn't need to sell me anything). My b/s warning system didn't activate once! Thanks gents.

Very dynamic interview Love it. Taleb is also one of my favorite, The incerto books are great. #skininthegame