Lakshman Achuthan: Smooth Reflation Sailing (For Now…)

Published on
January 21st, 2021
Duration
55 minutes

How Frothy Markets Have Created a Bull Market in Short Selling


Lakshman Achuthan: Smooth Reflation Sailing (For Now…)

The Interview ·
Featuring Lakshman Achuthan and Ed Harrison

Published on: January 21st, 2021 • Duration: 55 minutes

Lakshman Achuthan, COO and co-founder of ECRI, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to share his outlook on economic growth, inflation, and markets. Achuthan charts his way through the next 12 months, pointing out how the bulk of ECRI indicators suggest that reflation is indeed, just as many foresee, here. Achuthan disaggregates “the reflation trade” into the U.S. business cycle upturn, the spike in future inflation gauges, and a pick-up in global industrial growth, predicting that these three forces will for the near-term persist, albeit with the potential for some “storm clouds on the horizon.” Harrison asks Achuthan about the dangers and timescales of these storm clouds, and then the two interpret economic data ranging from jobless claims to shipping numbers to industrial production. Lastly, Achuthan shares his view on interest rates and volatility in the equity and credit markets. Filmed on January 15, 2021. Key learnings: Reflation is here and will continue. In most of the economic data he tracks, Achuthan sees an expected pick-up in growth and inflation. Nonetheless, looking at longer-leading indicators, there are “storm clouds on the horizon” for these variables.

Comments

Transcript

  • RI
    R I.
    23 January 2021 @ 23:58
    Only Jeff Goldblum can say the same thing over again in so many different words.
    • aD
      amol D.
      27 January 2021 @ 02:27
      I knew he reminded me of an actor but could not recall his name. Would have bothered me all night! Thx.
  • J
    Johan .
    25 January 2021 @ 20:36
    Finally back! :D
  • sd
    simon d.
    25 January 2021 @ 11:33
    Recording date please?
  • SV
    Steven V.
    21 January 2021 @ 21:14
    12 years on, still talking Globally Synchronized Growth. This isn't Macro Reality, it's Macro Narrative powered exclusively by Fed liquidity and Treasury gifting. Interesting to see how markets, investors, and analysts respond to stagflation. Exited the interview at the K-Shaped recovery IS the recovery thesis.
    • SL
      Shawn L.
      25 January 2021 @ 04:13
      Agreed there is no current Global Synchronized Growth. The reflation trade is simply a dollar weakness trade hoping for growth. Rates are negative everywhere and possibly coming to the US. Half the market lives in Fed induced euphoria land, another in the hope phase of the reflation trade praying to the post covid vaccine gods. We are headed for a continued multi year phase of fed induced confusion and dysinflation. It would be deflation, but the fed won't even allow that truth, so enjoy more QE and bond buying. I can hear the Fed saying enjoy your retirement boomers, cause once your gone your taking the economy with you. How the Fed serves only half of America is pitiful, they should serve the integrity of the economy by never having started this MMT mess.
  • JB
    Jack B.
    23 January 2021 @ 00:45
    What date is the interview? Published date doesn't mean much
    • SL
      Shawn L.
      25 January 2021 @ 04:05
      Yes this information seems like it would have been from a much earlier time period.
  • GG
    Gary G.
    24 January 2021 @ 22:59
    Brilliant. Staying short 10y,BTP, Budns and selling rips on dxy! That's all.
  • JH
    Jon H.
    23 January 2021 @ 06:11
    Brilliant. Brilliant!! Recording date?
  • MN
    MYLENE N.
    23 January 2021 @ 04:02
    More information on the cycles please! And further discussion regarding the UK and US gap in 10 year bond yields
  • CM
    Cory M.
    22 January 2021 @ 18:04
    I usually like Lakhsman, but here he said very little in a long interviews. Best when he sticks to his knitting - describing the broad historical cycles.... WITH CHARTS please.
  • MG
    Miguel G.
    22 January 2021 @ 11:27
    Love Lakshman cycle work hes always so balanced and pure math based allowing the data take him where it may. WIsh ECRI would develop a retail service I would certainly subscribe to it. Nice job as always
  • RM
    Russell M.
    21 January 2021 @ 16:23
    Lakshman brings unique and important perspective to Macro. Very much appreciate the interview!
    • B
      Bob .
      22 January 2021 @ 07:45
      Lots of great guests and for me he is in the top five without a doubt.
  • MS
    Marty S.
    21 January 2021 @ 18:21
    I really appreciated the interview, nice and candid and confident in his material. Does anyone else think he sounds just like Jeff Goldblum? ....even his expressions, incredible.
    • JF
      Jonathan F.
      22 January 2021 @ 03:59
      Watching now, was just thinking that
  • JD
    John D.
    21 January 2021 @ 19:17
    Always enjoy when you guys have Jeff Golblum on RV. Very informative.
  • JG
    Jose G.
    21 January 2021 @ 18:25
    Everyone on fintwit is now very cautious saying faangs , utilities , bonds and gold start to perk up and that is trouble for the future. No marginal buyers they say... Lets see whos right
  • HR
    Humberto R.
    21 January 2021 @ 17:09
    Buy the dips for the next 2-3 months and as you get further out increase your caution accordingly.
  • SB
    Stewart B.
    21 January 2021 @ 12:11
    Fantastic. I love that Lakshman uses a very different toolbox to most economists. I've followed his work for many years and he's usually on the money.
    • AH
      Andreas H.
      21 January 2021 @ 14:42
      agree, and he is saying, right now all green, so get or stay long :-)