Macro Mayhem: Filtering the Signal from the Noise

Published on
October 23rd, 2020
Duration
49 minutes


Macro Mayhem: Filtering the Signal from the Noise

The Interview ·
Featuring Keith McCullough

Published on: October 23rd, 2020 • Duration: 49 minutes

Raoul Pal, CEO and co-founder of Real Vision, welcomes back Keith McCullough, founder and CEO of Hedgeye Risk Management, to analyze how divergent indicators in inflation and growth are revealing trading signals for bonds, commodities, and equities going forward. McCullough breaks down his "Quad"-based investment process, going in greater depth on how "risk ranges" affect his trading across various asset classes such as corn, Chinese and Spanish equities, and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). Pal and McCullough explore how investors should think about liquidity risks, position sizing, and risk allocation, and the two discuss the role of these factors during a time with such confounding economic data. Filmed on October 21, 2020. Key Learnings: The interplay of volatility, volume and price offers asymmetric opportunities across all asset classes. The rate of change of inflation and growth can be an effective way to determine when to bet on high-conviction trades.

Comments

Transcript

  • JT
    Joe T.
    23 October 2020 @ 07:35
    As both long term Hedgeye + RV users I love it when Raoul and Keith hook up. I implement and grow with the Hedgeye process daily, but listening and watching Raoul poke around in Keiths brain is really useful. Great work and many thanks gents for all you do.
    • PK
      Peter K.
      23 October 2020 @ 23:23
      Raoul is a great guy. Legendary investor. Keith, not so much. 👎
    • wh
      william h.
      22 November 2020 @ 16:48
      I WATCH KM EVERY DAY. 75% OF HIS AIR TIME IS SPENT TALKING TRASH AND SPOUTING STRAINED SPORTS ANALOGIES. EVIDENTLY HE IS TOO SELF ABSORBED TO INVEST IN TEACHING THIS DOLT. I'M EXHAUSTED TRYING TO EXTRACT SOME USABLE KNOWLEDGE FROM HIS RAT-A-TAT DELIVERY. THANKS RAUL FOR YOUR EFFORT TO BRING SOME ORDER TO THE HE CHAOS.
  • LS
    L S.
    15 November 2020 @ 02:01
    Two media shysters at it again. McCullough doesn't like that Pal is more advanced. Oh yeah, Keith: you're Canadian. Sorry, we don't think about you guys. Deal with it.
  • bc
    bo c.
    2 November 2020 @ 16:25
    it's so interesting to read about everyone's experiences with hedgeye and how they use it. i've had some similar experiences - the quad macro framework, with the intermarket relationships and which sectors do well in which quads, is a helpful tool and i think if you listen to the macro show for a few weeks it starts to click. KM's short-term trading didn't fit my investing style at all - I tried to follow along the real-time alerts for a few weeks during the march panic and just ended up losing a lot of money i like that the sector analysts have mostly been with the team a long time, and neil howe's work is brilliant and lends a lot of credibility. the stock research produces some good long ideas (especialy in tech, e.g. ZM/TWLO/NET), i'm not a huge fan of the short ideas (doesn't really fit my investing style as much). it seems like their team does some interesting work collecting and analyzing alt data but as a retail subscriber you only get glimpses of it. overall i think it is useful if you think of it more as an input into your own process and it's less helpful as an all-in-one solution. i think if they published a real model etf or stock portfolio with performance rather than just the add/remove signals it would build credibility. i probably won't resubscribe but will dip into their public content now and then to see how they're tracking the markets.
  • LC
    Liliana C.
    2 November 2020 @ 00:10
    Wow no comments? As someone who has trialed HedgeEye, I can say that their models are A+. However, you have to invest the time to understand their process and how best to utilize it given your personal style and constraints. It’s worth the time to learn their process, if you can put the time. I utilize their Quads for the longer trend positioning. I utilize risk ranges to enter or exit positions. I cannot use their RTAs as I have to preclear every trade and must hold a position for at least 14 days.
  • WB
    William B.
    1 November 2020 @ 23:31
    I recommend reading the transcript. You can go over the process parts of the narrative. Full disclosure: I am part of Hedgeye Nation.
  • GG
    Guilherme G.
    1 November 2020 @ 14:41
    I subscribe to RV Plus, and Hedgeye Pro. I see how some of you found Keith's process complicated. The truth is it works. But you're not going to pick it up watching one interview. It isn't a narrative, it's a process... After spending some time following it, I think this interview summarised many points quite effectively. On average, I derive more value from Keith's 'Macro Show', than RV's 'Daily Briefing'. Having said that, some 'Daily Briefings' are awesome. Anything with Raoul Pal or Roger Hirst is always excellent. Tony Greer and Dave Floyd segments are also good, providing a trader's perspective instead of covering news. Hedgeye is more for the trader. Maybe why I like it. Very educational. Takes more effort though.
  • GG
    Gary G.
    29 October 2020 @ 00:57
    Waste of time!
  • LS
    L S.
    27 October 2020 @ 20:27
    25% cash, 25% commodities, 50% bitcoin. There, I just saved you a whole lot of time and some money. I like Pal more of these two, of course, but the funny thing is that I got irked by the RV bait and switch at the beginning of the year, so I won't be re-upping. Just do some basic homework and find out the long, strong positions you need to be in and just wait 5-10 years. That's really what this is all about. The rest is just a show, eyeball contest, as others have stated.
    • JL
      Jinny L.
      28 October 2020 @ 10:35
      it seems to me RV is trying to monetize everything nowadays. i liked it much better back in the old days when they werent marketing as much.
    • DG
      David G.
      28 October 2020 @ 14:23
      You have to let guys sell their product sometimes to get them to come on to talk. Regardless of how effective his product is. I found his VIX insight to be a valuable gem to put in my back pocket. Little by little I'm picking up the breadcrumbs to find my way to glory.
    • LS
      L S.
      28 October 2020 @ 20:27
      I understand, and I know it is a business, but my suspicion is the methods or plan moving forward is what made Grant Williams jump ship. Can anyone verify? I know the production is good and it takes time and money, but solid stuff before wasn't all about the rat race of growth or investor payout at all costs. And most of the big guys here are already lifetime millionaires into the double digits plus.
  • Dv
    Daniel v.
    27 October 2020 @ 15:43
    Was a Hedgeye sub for around 6years. Long story short, I never made any serious money. Keith keeps jumping up and down. Then he is short, 2 weeks later he is long again. Very tiring.
    • LS
      L S.
      27 October 2020 @ 20:22
      I have a friend that follows him and likes him/stumps for him, but I've already noticed it's too much jumping. I also don't like the bluster - he was not right about the drop early this year (claimed it would have happened apart from covid - obviously not). He said the market would tank again (wrong) - same idea. I like guys with strong opinions but he is protected also by all of his minions, why would they go against the master? I'm sad to say he sorta fits the canadian profile of being smart, but trying way too hard.
  • DG
    David G.
    27 October 2020 @ 04:23
    So basically we should pay attention today(oct 26)!!!! Price drop, volume above avg. Volatility spiked. We are going to the 100 day on the spy to wait and see what happens at the polls. Fade tomorrows rally attempt if there is one.
  • TS
    Theodoros S.
    26 October 2020 @ 21:25
    The difference between trading and investing.
  • Sv
    Sid v.
    26 October 2020 @ 16:47
    I checked out HE after an RV interview. I really like the fact that they are selling their analysis and you can measure if they are right or wrong. No one behind the green curtain. If the process doesn't work in the medium term, they will cease to exist. Their only product is recommendations, and explanations on the math of their recs. If the Recommendations fail, they do to. Watching KM and the guys is like being in a locker room of an athletic team, and I am sure that turns some sour. Also, one constantly feels like they are not privy to all the conversation, just snippets. It is useful, and my guess is there is some "gold in them thar hills" but I have not been around enough to judge.
  • TE
    Thomas E.
    26 October 2020 @ 15:40
    Hedgeye in the house!! Love these guys. Totally changed the way I look at markets. They don't teach you this stuff in college finance classes!
  • KI
    Kevin I.
    26 October 2020 @ 11:53
    Can someone name the books that Keith mentioned in this video please?
    • FE
      Frank E.
      26 October 2020 @ 12:27
      The Misbehavior of Markets
  • JL
    Jonathan L.
    26 October 2020 @ 02:56
    Keith just made $269/yr ;)
  • DB
    Donna B.
    25 October 2020 @ 19:23
    I subscribe to Hedgeye's The Call, which is an hour analyst call every weekday and is very good. I discovered RV through Keith, so I value both platforms. Good questions Raoul. Thanks Keith.
    • LH
      Leigh H.
      25 October 2020 @ 19:38
      I also subscribe to the call-- it is very good-- daily info on their research.
    • JK
      Jason K.
      26 October 2020 @ 00:09
      Both have been completely wrong this year.
    • KB
      Kurt B.
      26 October 2020 @ 00:34
      Jason K - who is the “both” to which you refer? Keith and Raoul?
    • GP
      Gorki P.
      26 October 2020 @ 02:04
      I subscribe to Hedgeye. just think that the way Hedgeye works is more like providing with a bunch of info and then you have to think and make your own decisions, paying attention on the internals of the market and etc... Some of the investing ideas are like 2x-3x-4x up. Also, as an example, his risk range turned bullish on TSLA when it was $700, so it was a easy place to make money also. Yes, Keith was bearish on the initial phase of the recovery, but since around July (I think) he started to be commodities, I think he mentioned trend for Copper was around $2.40, so it was very easy just to go there and buy long calls on SCCO and FCX etc...Financials pro top AI picks outperformed the S&P by a lot, since when it was released. I just think that the way Hedgeye works is more like providing you the info and then you have to think and make your own decisions, paying attention on the internals of the market, managing risk and etc...
  • DD
    Donovan D.
    26 October 2020 @ 00:31
    Keith McCullough; sharp!
  • LH
    Leigh H.
    25 October 2020 @ 19:02
    I subscribe to Hedgeye and have learned a lot in six months. I work full time and thus can only only use it to a certain degree. Am a novice investor since '08 managing my own $ and will always think of myself as a novice. Macro Show, Risk Ranges and the Early Look I find very much worth the $$. Real Time Alerts, ETF Pro and Investing Ideas I am not sold on-- time will tell more. The Quads are very useful and KM and the Macro Show and Early Look are my insurance to help me get out and limit damage in a crash. His use of volatility is the "insurance" element.
  • RH
    Ron H.
    24 October 2020 @ 01:47
    Models and frameworks are useful, and I presume this a good system for a lot of the time. However, it appears to be "reductionist". For me, reductionism is a philosophical error to be resisted in any domain, and even more so across domains. Theories are useful, but only so much, and until they aren't. Then they are supplanted by a new theory.
    • KK
      Kevin K.
      25 October 2020 @ 17:23
      Thanks for sharing. Interested to hear how you reconstructed the RR's if you are willing to share more on this?
  • JC
    John C.
    25 October 2020 @ 16:10
    I subscribe to KM’s macro show... Before I subscribed to technical analysis services (RSOTC / Northman) but i found the insights skewed towards day trading... I find that the HE model better fits swing trading because quads are mapped to a calendar quarter. However moves within the quad are dictated by daily risk ranges... That said, KM’s moves can often feel chaotic: he sold all his BTC and bought it back four days later, silver and copper also recently flipped from long, to short and now back to long... sometimes he will switch from long to short during the trading day. Another comment references KM like a college professor. I disagree: I think his primary driver is to use the hedgeye machine to power his own trading, his next priority would be the sale of services to institutional clients, and the riff-raff individual investors get the least information. KM will never show you the whole picture. F/x: He only publishes the daily risk ranges for 20 tickers… If you pay a few hundred a month for their top package you would have the most complete view. But that level would require at least 3 hours a day to consume. For me, net-net, i think the hedgeye process is a better fit than TA, but I haven’t worked out what services i need to subscribe to within the suite of offerings and how to apply a filter to make the process fit swing trading rather than constantly touching the portfolio with daily small trades...
  • SS
    Sunny S.
    24 October 2020 @ 02:52
    This was an insightful interview and I have been wanting to cross reference how KM's process of identifying stagflation and deflation differed to RP's net deflation. Now I understand the time frames and granularity are different as well as KM is not measuring GDP or inflation as much as the rate of change of these in his economic quadrants. Makes sense to me now that you can't rely on government stats but its only the rate of change on these metrics that matters to markets. I took RP's advice on taking notes and it made more sense the second time around. For what its worth here is my summary... ****** Substance versus Style It’s very hard to understand KM's process from watching his Hedgeye shows because KM assumes you understood a lot from his previous videos. KM could do with an explanatory framework. He can also be quite cliquey with his audience which is distracting at times so I agree with a lot of the sentiments expressed here. KM's seems more like a university professor interested in his own research rather than a teacher focused on how best to explain information. A lot of people end up really impressed and a lot of people just want to go to the pub later. Though Raoul's questioning really helped flesh out Keith's "PROCESS" to me finally. Great job! This is like a summary breakdown of KM's methods for the benefit of others. KM's (the Mucker's) process is super complicated to me (requires an army of resources) and is detailed on data so hold your breath, here’s my summary... ****** Summary KM tries to sift the trending changes from the day to day noise by looking at market signals that front run the economic data to explain where the market thinks the economy is in any particular country, i.e in terms of growing economy (IE. ^delta GDP) and increasing or decreasing inflation. *** Identifying the "QUAD" Economic Macro State by country and Quarter using Economic Quadrants This KM maps with his 4 economic quadrants. The "Quads" as he calls them are only looking at the rate of change of firstly GDP (y-axis) and secondly inflation (x-axis) not the actual printed numbers. This now makes sense to me... because he can’t rely on the accuracy of government data but the rate of change is the more important factor for market sentiment. Quad 1 - Growth Growth: Accelerating Inflation: Decelerating Quad 2 - Inflationary Growth: Accelerating Inflation: Accelerating Quad 3 - Stagflationary Growth: Decelerating Inflation: Decelerating Quad 4 - Deflationary Growth: Decelerating Inflation: Accelerating *** Identifying the strategies available Each of the four quadrant generates a long or short strategy signal for different asset classes upon which he can use as a basis to decide his trade strategies. The nature of inflation and GDP sentiment decides these strategies signals so e.g. Quad 4 deflation is bad for financials (bank stocks) and long for bonds. *** Identifying the upcoming quad market sentiment Rather than wait for published economic data to identify the next Quad he has a series of say 30 front running market indicators like for example, the difference between the US ten year notes versus German 10-year or movements in DXY, etc. The USD going up he might consider negative for GDP for XYZ country. These mix of signals allow him to make a call on where the economy is perceived to be going by the market at any one time and get in front of the next trade. *** Identifying the appropriate trading tactic and timing For a particular trade (e.g German bunds) he uses a trade signal table of three factors such as volatility, volume, price of the asset to decide on what the market is signaling for that asset class, say the S&P500. For example if Volatility doesn't change Volume is decelerating (dropping) and price is falling that's a buy the dip signal for KM. *** Figuring out medium term trends Lastly he tries to identify upcoming undercurrent trend turning points to the economic quadrants on a daily basis by looking at the volatility of volatility in say S&P500 as opposed to random "episodic" market noise. This gives him his front running signal on where the economic quadrants is trending to for his trades over the medium term. This seems somewhat like a conviction signal to me. These KM sees as a more underlying medium term signal as opposed to the above short term indicators. The time frames are say for example quarterly say next 3 months or longer underlying trend changes (i.e. swing trades). When the vol of vol spikes he looks for a decrease in price, increasing volume, increasing clusters of volatility in say the S&P500 to confirm a trend change, I'm guessing here. The two interesting nuggets of forecast information I got from this was that 1) KM believes quarter 2 of next year will be a Quad 2 because the inflation and GDP will be comparing to this years very poor pandemic figures in March. That’s a bullish scenario for financials (bank stocks), Energy and bad for gold and bonds. 2) Additionally KM sold out of all his Bitcoin and he thinks it trades in terms of volatility like a commodity say copper. Now how does that gel with BTC following gold if gold vol is more like currency vol is my next question and what do those vol characterisations mean? The fact that he has sold out of BTC while many traders are currently bullish would indicate to me he thinks it will crash in maybe the short term and if my conviction is that it would only happen if the stocks crash then that's very bearish to me. KM's method I would class as a day trading & swing trading type that relies heavily on macro indicators to readjust his strategy daily. Very much in the weeds, he is focused on looking for price asymmetry upside and mitigating downside trade risk on a daily basis. He doesn't care about liquidity as an indicator and I'm guessing his indicators and investment style would keep him ahead of a credit crunch type event. Love to hear any one else's elaborations or clarifications on this.
    • MO
      Mary O.
      24 October 2020 @ 08:24
      nice summary, reverse the inflation trend between q4 and q3
    • JC
      John C.
      24 October 2020 @ 16:00
      Your btc part is wrong. He sold his bitcoin when he thought we were going into quad4, when that didn’t happen, he bought back in like four days later…He is currently long bitcoin
    • AB
      Ashley B.
      24 October 2020 @ 22:51
      Quad 3 is Stagflation, but you have the wrong two elements. The correct Quad 3 elements are provided in your Quad 4. Correct Quad 4 is both Growth and Inflation are decelerating as this is deflation, e,g. Q4 2018 and Q2 2020.
    • SK
      Stephen K.
      25 October 2020 @ 13:15
      Thank you for this. He lost me with his quad talk.
  • LR
    Leon R.
    25 October 2020 @ 02:08
    There seems to be a LOT of Hedgeeye subscriber/customer comments here. Maybe it would be useful to see which level of membership each commenter has, so we can weed out any biased commenters who have found their way here via the $1 subscription. PS. Did anyone else feel like they were watching a sales pitch?
  • AI
    Andras I.
    24 October 2020 @ 01:59
    I find Hedgeye and RV equally useful and complimentary for what I do: a lot of hard work, a lot of listening/reading and not copying anyone but calling my own shots! Better make the mistake myself and learn from it. Because of this, it didn't bother me when Keith missed the QQQ long for a couple of months or Russell short or whatever. I had plenty of other things going on. You don't have to get everything right, there is just as much value in signaling controversy. Just like it doesn't really bother me when Raoul gets things his trade ideas wrong - which he does, everyone does! --- Here is how I fit it all together: I was a Hedgeye subscriber for a while but no way I'm Hedgeye nation or whatever trademarked herd mentality is out there. I've joined Hedgeye to broaden my developing macro models and understanding, to get new ideas for potentially useful data sources and both looking at interpreting those models in a less obvious, potentially more sophisticated way. Process: 1, BROAD RV MACRO OPINIONS: As part of a top down oriented investor, nowadays it mostly starts with RV as a very broad based filter of what opinions are out there. This provides a somewhat subjective, often opinionated, definitely branching (sometimes obviously bifurcated) view of either the broad economy or the markets. I DO NOT pick sides. Most RV guests and people like Jeff Snider, Goncalves, Daniel Lacalle...etc fit into this step of the process. 2, MORE MACRO: This is supported but other, free research of similar scope (some of which are awesome quality, like MacroVoices, Grant's ttmyg, Option radio or what it's called), a bit of FinTwit monitoring (mostly for some specialists in various fields like PM)...etc 3, HEDGEYE/DATA MODELING STEP: I narrow my view using both Hedgeye's and my own macro data/models (mostly Macro Show, quarterly outlook are useful, the rest, not so much for me), looking for confirmation but more importantly question marks! To be honest, I Ignore the entertainment show (and the early morning rumblings about Ye Ol' Wall), I look at the raw data - and so far it has proven more cost effective for me to just use their publications than to continue developing my own model for now (mostly because of the costs of broad data access on some place like TradingView or Quandl). 4, WEEKLIES: I maintain a growing weekly chart/theme collection (2-300 pages) of the most important trends, mostly looking for turns..etc This includes anything from global economy to various areas (US, Europe, China, EM) economies, markets, central banks, employment, inflation, commodities and some crypto. Less data driven, more subjective but this helps keeping a finger on the pulse of the markets and coming up with new ideas or confirmation/rejection. 5, IMPLEMENTATION: Then it comes to implementing...and this is the step most people get bitter about Hedgeye, so my view is simple: I DO NOT follow trade recommendations of anyone! It's impossible to fit 5 different trade recommendation portfolios in a meaningful way, they have different risk tolerance, timeframes...etc in mind that completely contradicts each-other (and my goals). So from this point of view, even mixing RVPro Raoul and Julian views can be hard. Anyone (including RVPro and Hedgeye) can go just plain wrong - and you don't want to be bitter about it.
    • AI
      Andras I.
      24 October 2020 @ 02:08
      One more thing about the Quad3/Quad4 debate: It's a probability distribution CONTINUUM! There might be a communication mistake required by the retail audience who are craving certainty and an easy to interpret signal...BUT if you were looking at the data, they never implied a clear cut outcome (other than verbally): It was always X% probability of Quad3 and Y% probability of Quad4 and there were a few percentage of shifts (+ there is the chart with the "depth" of the quad too, which was sitting near the origin for quite a while, slowly drifting down along the vertical center). But in reality that's already a simplification - you could say 2% chance of X amount of growth and inflation and 2.3% chance of this and that and then you end up with an average of 2 of these outcomes - which you an further simplify into 1 probability - removing detail in the process.
    • JL
      Jason L.
      24 October 2020 @ 15:12
      You're spot on with the Quad3/4 continuum. That's what's most confusing for people. And Hedgeye's marketing further the confusion (#QUAD4inQ4). Keith isn't all that clear in explaining this. It took me 6 months to understand all this as a retail subscriber after a lot of research and studying. Once it clicked, everything else about the process made a lot more sense. Every view from Hedgeye is lightly held and can/will change with new data in one hour, tomorrow, next week, or a few months. If you understand that you have a hammer and not a saw, then you know the tool is supposed work.
    • JC
      John C.
      24 October 2020 @ 16:35
      What do you use for a charting platform? I recently tried Tradingview but for $30 a month i can only save 10 charts...
    • AI
      Andras I.
      25 October 2020 @ 00:07
      First a clarification: when I mentioned data access (APIs), I meant TradingEconomics, not TradingView. Sorry. For charting I use Interactive Brokers - a charting platform that everyone and their dogs seems to hate. It's not as flexible as TradingView (which I use occasionally when on the road or just quick check), BUT I have a very rigid, well defined PROCESS set up in IB that forces me through a thinking process. I often find something like TradingView will encourage too much playing around and end up zoomed in to some minuscule level that has absolutely no significance on my target timeframe (3-6 months) but it's great at inducing fear or FOMO. I go through these in order (preset as tabs) and almost never touch/manipulate the chart itself: 1, Intraday (only quick check) 2, Long term view (daily and weekly candles) 3, Momentum (with related indicators) 4, Support/resistance (with drawings and indicators) - I don't draw much at all 5, Probability ranges 6, Volume and flow indicators 7, Volatility and rolling correlations with major assets/asset classes 9, Options view - mostly IV vs. realized, open interest, volume distribution, skew, ATM term structure...etc 10, (for futures) Term structure - I also use it for example trading GLD or XAU, I would look at /GC futures 11, RiskNavigator - last step before buying something, I check position sizing, beta, delta...etc against my current or target portfolio IB also allows me to run a comprehensive watchlist of a lot of indicator assets/ratios/virtual assets (like dollar against weighted list reconstructed of 26 currencies that Raoul mentioned before), organised in what they represent (vs. just a list like Tradingview) and to review every day. -- I also have an evolving Python process that spits out charts that I cannot (well...tedious to) do elsewhere, mostly portfolio construction related things but also returns distributions (bell curve) with skew...etc metrics. I've also reconstructed Keith's risk ranges to a fairly decent level. -- Another one I use for documentation and macro is (the free and wip) Koyfin: * access to most of the free sources like FRED and on Quandl * a great charting platform if you need many different graphs on the same chart * for outputting to include in a document * decent dashboard for most macro overview needs (world economies/markets, FX, rates...etc) * great charting/data for company valuation (charting various ratios like EPS, quick ratio...etc) * ETF holdings breakdown and return contribution * some other charting like rolling correlations/beta...etc. * Not for daytrading (they don't really have a proper intraday chart), not really a replacement for TradingView. -- Last one I use sometimes: Portfolio Visualizer - not really charting but it does spit out some charts: * backtesting asset class/asset allocations * factor analysis (various regressions, risk factors...etc) * Monte Carlo simulations * various optimisation techniques (Black-Litterman, Markowitz efficient frontier...etc) * asset class and asset correlations * it supports various dynamic portfolio construction approaches (moving averages, momentum...etc) -- More importantly(!), when analyzing a company or preparing a trade, I record most of these charts and decision steps (Evernote) that I can look back later (also run trading log in Excel and montlhy/quarterly look at PortfolioAnalytics on IB). And I try to be methodical about it.
  • YA
    Yaz A.
    24 October 2020 @ 22:03
    Meteorologist KM is always great at predicting the weather.
  • DM
    David M.
    24 October 2020 @ 21:48
    Great conversation and thanks Raoul for asking the right questions. I like Keith’s process more and more every time I hear him talk about it. I don’t trade in and out as frequently as he does, but his process makes me think more objectively about my own asset allocations and positioning. Love it. Thank you RV.
  • SL
    Steven L.
    24 October 2020 @ 21:37
    First, Raoul is an awesome interviewer, understands nuances, intuitive and savvy. I am a longterm Hedgeye subscriber. KM was thorough and explained the process very well, but for those unaccquianted with his process it's like drinking from a fire hydrant so review the transcript. Personally, I like the Quad analysis as a back drop framework as its catogorizing what the economic data is telling you and suggest optimal or high probability trade opportunities. Interestingly, you can watch how the market is actually trading; some time the market trades the Quad view other times it's not. So the market can or will interpretation of the economic data differently; it may highlight certain data differently or be trading along different time frames. These mismatches create opportunities. The volatility characteristics of the market or a particular asset class is a foundational core tenant of KM's process, underlies the risk ranges and opportunities. Fundamentally a mathmatically revealing process so you need to be a grinder to follow KM's process. KM's a grinder... I like that! Thanks to Raoul and KM for helping those of us who are usually the last to know.
  • IM
    Indranath M.
    24 October 2020 @ 21:32
    Need a Steven van Meter explainer on this one
  • LT
    Lisa T.
    24 October 2020 @ 19:53
    Awesome conversation. His process takes a bit of understanding, but definitely worth it. I like how he trades in multiple time frames. This seems to trip up and frustrate some people. But then no one should try trading a system without digging deep to understand it first.
  • DS
    David S.
    24 October 2020 @ 18:17
    It is apparent to me some of the personal comments about Mr. McCullough resulted from discussions outside of this presentation. When there is a chance to vent people take the opportunity to voice their opinions which is fine. It would be better to make the same comment in a more respectful way. We need quality guests on RV. It is in our best interest not to drive them away. DLS
  • WS
    William S.
    23 October 2020 @ 15:36
    KM/Hedgeye is not Macro no matter what they promote - its a trader momentum risk range (that only KM has - except institutions) process. KM continually references his PA that moves all over the place - its chaotic at best - like Mandelbrots fractal theory he ref's. You never really have enough info to take a longer term vs day trader approach as KM does. The process referenced has you in/out, in/out to the point its a very time consuming process. KM constantly blows his horn which also gets old.. Unless you are a very dedicated day trader stay away from Hedgeye.
    • MK
      Michael K.
      23 October 2020 @ 20:54
      This. Whenever anyone asks for how to use the process to manage their money without day trading 24/7 he gets angry and says you don’t understand the process. I enjoy when they speak about turning points in probabilistic terms and he’s good at describing risk management. But next year I am probably saving the subscription fees and just putting that money into a betterment account, gold, and bitcoin and let balanced inflation tilted allocation sit there.
    • JL
      Jason L.
      24 October 2020 @ 15:39
      I've been a retail subscriber for two years. One I understood the probabilistic nature of the process, I stopped making so many mistakes. I agree that he uses a lot of day trading to make his positions work. That's why I use the process to time entries into bigger moves like bonds and hold. I also use their RTAs to get leads on investing ideas, but do my own research because I'm likely to be in the position for a hot minute. I ignore most of their alerts and ideas. And I totally ignore him on Bitcoin. Even when he's stretching too far in his trolling, I appreciate that this pushes me to clarify my own positions. My main criticism: No one at Hedgeye can concisely explain their process for retail folks. It would go a long way in setting expectations.
  • AR
    Anthony R.
    23 October 2020 @ 19:14
    Been a Hedgeye subscriber (since 2019) and have had mixed results with KM's process. The Good : He pivoted out of equities into bonds in 2018 perfectly and caught the start of the gold rally. The Bad : His long energy call in late 2019 early 2020 lost money. Was too bearish in April-June because the Quads got confused by the Fed front running the data. Told subs to short the Russell2000 into the rally. Keith made money (being the skilled trader) but many novice subs got steam rolled. The Ugly : freely dishes out criticism but cannot take it. Honest critique about the process gets ignored/blocked . For the CEO of a company he spends an inordinate amount of time on twitter feeding the trolls and retweeting his fanboys. He front runs his subscribers by sending out trading alerts shortly after he has placed the trade. This ensures him at least 0.5-1% of upside which is often the amount of gain he books.
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      24 October 2020 @ 01:13
      It's called Real Time Alerts for a reason. I think you credit Keith with too much power if you think Hedgeye subscribers can meaningfully move the price of many of the indices and liquid blue chips that Keith trades.
    • JL
      Jason L.
      24 October 2020 @ 15:25
      A lot of good points. Totally agree that he is thin-skinned, despite his claims otherwise. He spent a whole week venting on Bitcoin hodlers after his Michael Saylor interview. It gets old sometimes. I don't think he's front running us on the alerts. The number of subscribers exploded. I think there are more people entering the trades now than before. When a given stock or ETF has low volume, the number of subscribers can move the price significantly -- but not on big stocks or ETFs (e.g. GLD). I've been a subscriber for two years and it's only been in the last few months that these spikes became noticeable to me. (I wouldn't be surprised if a few technical subscribers constantly pull in the site data and automate the trades.)
  • AR
    Al R.
    24 October 2020 @ 15:04
    Keiths top talents are talking smack about other people, making fun and ridiculing
  • TE
    Tom E.
    24 October 2020 @ 12:29
    Struggled to follow this one. Way outside my toolkit.
  • GG
    Gary G.
    24 October 2020 @ 07:03
    Stop guessing and just build a simple rules based trend following system. Backtest it and start trading/investing (based on your time horizon). Price is the only truth in the end!
  • SD
    Sudipta D.
    24 October 2020 @ 06:26
    Too much complicated discussion for me. Lost interest after few minutes.
  • JL
    J L.
    23 October 2020 @ 13:13
    As someone who has tried to make use of Hedgeye research (subscriber to both RV and Hedgeye), the biggest problem I have with their approach is the gap between the asset allocation approach and the discretionary trading and investing approach. To simplify it, asset allocators don't make big bets. They pick a generalized area, like small caps or emerging market equities, and then allocate to that. In keeping with this, allocators are not going for big returns. They want relatively smooth, high-single-digit or low-double-digit returns over time. Discretionary traders and investors, on the other hand, DO make big bets. The way to make money as a discretionary market participant, whether trading or investing, is through risk management overall coupled with home runs via concentrated bets. Studies show that the profit distribution of world-class traders and investors tends to be 90/10 or even 95/5, meaning 90% of profits comes from 10% of positions, or even 95% of profits coming from 5% of positions. It's a game of fat tails where you focus on getting your bearings and managing risk, most of the time, and then when the ducks all line up you bet big, and every once in a while really, REALLY big. Gundlach talked about this too by the way in his recent RVI interview -- how every once in a while, an opportunity is so huge you go all in. What HedgeEye seems to do, as best I can tell, is like this weird no man's land between asset allocation and discretionary trading and investing. It's not really oriented to big bets because they are so focused on data flows in an asset allocation-y type way. But traders and investors who make money from big bets, at the end of the day, don't really make money from that. They make money from finding places to concentrate, and bet big. I dunno. The quad stuff just feels like it's not really asset allocation, but not really conviction-based either. I've tried to incorporate their data flows into my process to add edge, but haven't really made much use of it. It's just so much data that doesn't really crystallize the big bets or clarify the key factors -- again, this weird no man's land thing where it's more asset allocation but kind of not really.
    • JL
      James L.
      23 October 2020 @ 13:33
      I definitely agree with a lot of this. They seem to sit somewhere between swing traders and asset allocators. I've been trying to integrate it too with varying degrees of success. I appreciate that you don't have to decide a view for the next 6 months, year or 2 years like Raoul maybe with the USD or with insolvencies, but that because it's mapping that each month/quarter you can still be positioned ahead of big moves, particularly Quad 4s where most standard asset allocators would suffer a draw down. In other circumstances where we weren't at 0% interest rates, no yield, everything bubble, majority in passive investing, it might be easier just to be a value investor, or dividend yield investor or anything else that one is driven too, but we live at the end of the current debt supercycle/fourth turning/monetary rest and I'm finding risk management and trying to generate alpha in more sophisticated ways takes precedent.
    • WS
      William S.
      23 October 2020 @ 15:26
      Totally, totally agree - I tried Hedgeye and it was chaotic at best - I'm not a day trader and most if not all of the products (which highly overlap and never seem to provide sufficient info as you have to rely on the KM feed via Macro Show which is also chaotic ) are oriented towards a momentum style or focus using the so called process KM promotes. KM seems to flip daily due to his Davie day trader style - short on the upper end and buy on the low end based on the daily risk range - which only KM has and the institutions who can afford to buy it. There is good info but you have to spend an inordinate amount of time gleaning the pearls....gave up on it eventually. And just got tired of the KM ego at every turn - maybe that works for some but listening to it daily got tedious.
    • WS
      William S.
      23 October 2020 @ 15:39
      I have found KM's process to be well behind the big moves in most assets by the time he promotes - although it appears his PA has taken an earlier position.
    • DL
      Desmond L.
      23 October 2020 @ 17:32
      I was a subscriber during the worst pandemic months (couple weeks before the worst market bottom onto the huge bull move soon thereafter), followed their trade rec and listened every morning to their briefing, then lost so much money because Hegdeye kept calling bearish turns that wouldn't materialize and doubling down or tripling down on their shorts. I ended up losing a lot of money on my PA. I felt very discouraged and upset about what went on and had to unsubscribe to dig myself out of the deep hole. Just a horrible episode of my personal trading experience I had to stomach that I thought i should share with y'all. It certainly wasn't a good fit for me personally, yet it could work for many other people.
    • JA
      Jordan A.
      24 October 2020 @ 01:24
      @Desmond L. I had the exact same experience.
    • JL
      James L.
      24 October 2020 @ 06:02
      @Desmond L I've been a subscriber for a year or two before the COVID. Their allocations worked very well before then. Covid definitely distorted the model, the shut down wasn't a normal recession, and the mortgage/rent forbearance had a different effect than the normal monetary response, and I learned a lot trying to navigate between what that market did in COVID vs what the model was predicting.
  • PB
    Paolo B.
    23 October 2020 @ 20:41
    I read at times of comparisons between RV and HE. There is absolutely an abyss between the two, not even sure why they invite him for interviews.
    • DS
      David S.
      23 October 2020 @ 22:21
      Maybe to get a different point of view for us. DLS
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      24 October 2020 @ 01:10
      Don't knock HE until you've tried it. If it doesn't work for you then, go right ahead.
    • AL
      An L.
      24 October 2020 @ 05:43
      It's totally two different style. One is broad, and one is specific. They both compliment each other for me. Hedgeye provides more data, while RV provides visions, and broader knowelege.
  • WB
    William B.
    24 October 2020 @ 03:26
    Hedgeye is completely transparent. Each call is time-stamped on real time alerts. I dare you to beat him. Did you? I would be amazed if you could show me real data indicating that you personally beat Hedgeye within margin of error.
    • LC
      Liliana C.
      24 October 2020 @ 04:47
      No one cares yawn 🥱
  • PO
    Paul O.
    23 October 2020 @ 13:18
    Raoul congratulations on the best piece of investing education that I have received in a month of Sundays. Keith was brilliant - sharp asa tack, lucid, cheeky and mentally lithe; and his Hedgeye team are a role call of superstars: Neil Howe is a hero of mine, Darius Dale is brilliant, Christian Drake writes beautifully (rare in finance), Jonesy Buds and his research analysts are terrific (disclosure I am a Hedgeye National... and a bit of a fan). I feel that I have just received an O' Level. So, when you are finalising Real Vision Uni, can you make sure their is a Hedgeye Module please? With all that said, you asked a lot of smart and penetrating second and third order questions to dig deeper, which were genuine in their curiosity; and were framed in rapport. "It takes two to tango" and only the transparent Keith McCullough would, candidly and articulately, describe his methodology: if he didn't actually give away his secret sauce, he hinted to the sources from which one might reverse engineer it! Very well done mate 👍
    • MW
      Mike W.
      24 October 2020 @ 02:57
      I’m here ,too. Keith dated my cousin and he was a hockey player and my cousins were pro and he wasn’t so it was fun. My fam went to Yale I went to Belmont University (last nights presidential debate was at my al ma mater) butI was a pro surfer so they never gave respect and KM was always a dick but cool at the same time. Been a customer during his writing of his Diary of a hedge fund manager. Overall you need to print their entire HE University to get the proper lens to understand their regime versions called Quads. Vol price and rate of change is their MO. It’s a quant model that blows away historical volatility non-trending, means it allows you to scale buys and sells w/o a Bloomberg PhD.
  • ar
    andrew r.
    23 October 2020 @ 16:39
    I think some of the critiques of KM and Hedgeye are pretty fair, actually. It depends what you're looking for. But I will say, as a sub since 2011, they are pretty good at calling turns. They don't get everything right, but I can think of only 2 or maybe 3 meaningful mistakes in 36 quarters, which is pretty darn good.
    • AR
      Anthony R.
      23 October 2020 @ 18:06
      I've been subscriber to HE since 2019. Caught the tail end of their TLT trade and made descent money in GLD, but I've been disappointed in 2020 : The Quads are designed to front run the FED, but during Covid, the FED front ran the data and Keith kept me out of rally and shorting the Russell2000. I'm interested in learning more from your wealth of experience with the process. Please get in touch : anthony@rexsolom.co.za
    • RR
      Randall R.
      24 October 2020 @ 02:44
      I've been a subscriber since 2010. I love that he teaches retailers how to run money like a hedge fund. They offer great intro products like the Macro Show which is very useful for teaching subs how to enter/exit and to size/adjust positions. This is one of the most important things to know when running money; especially when it's your own. Hedgeye has some incredibly talented analysts like Howard Penny, Todd Jordon, Brian M., etc. The SectorPro products aren't cheap but they are indispensable once you try them. Finally, if you don't subscribe to The Call then you're just missing out on great insight from their team of analysts each morning. Although, I wish it was published sooner. There are things they can do better but considering how far they've come I can't complain.
  • BH
    Bin H.
    23 October 2020 @ 18:51
    This is a commercial ad for business reason. Don't be serious. Watch other interviews for insights
    • JK
      John K.
      24 October 2020 @ 01:30
      Yea i kinda got that vibe while watching it. I wasn’t sure why but I’m glad I’m not alone
  • MR
    Michael R.
    23 October 2020 @ 10:56
    I too am part of Hedgeye nation. All these signals are mathematics (fractal geometry). Many investors spend the majority of time measuring and mapping the structure of companies, this process also weighs the direction of the market, (price, volume & volatility). His stock picks are TIME-STAMPED since 2008, try and find that with another investing service.
    • AR
      Anthony R.
      23 October 2020 @ 18:44
      Plenty HE subscribers here are not as enamored. Keith's Quads failed in 2020 when the Fed front ran the data....he kept his subs our of the rally and had them short it. No doubt he still made money day-trading. The jock-culture within the firm makes them super defensive to criticism. Try asking a question that critiques the process on the Macro Show and notice how it gets held up "in review" and published late so it never receives any up-votes.
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      24 October 2020 @ 01:20
      I'm a Hedgeye sub who didn't short that rally. I stayed long Gold and Treasuries (and BTC) and made money. I still rate Keith for calling big turns, and although he got market direcrion wrong in late May/early June, he pivoted quickly. He certainly called the March crash before it happened (along with Raoul and Julian).
  • DW
    Denton W.
    23 October 2020 @ 18:52
    I highly value RealVision but I don't get the hype around McCullough and Hedge Eye. To me, McCullough is just a glorified sports betting tout. If he was as smart as he thinks he is he would be running money.
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      24 October 2020 @ 01:14
      Keith runs his own Family money. Good enough for me.
  • LK
    Lyle K.
    23 October 2020 @ 21:03
    Both these guys are talented and great at what they do, but I believe they are trying to find a answer that is impossible to predict. When Mr. McCullough is talking about machine learning algorithms trying to predict what kind of environment we are in it is really funny. Machine learning in my opinion works great for things like tesla's autonomous driving algorithms not for predicting the future. And Raoul trying to find a high conviction trade seems pointless because of the government intervention trading markets seems like a guessing game right now maybe after election markets will normalize but if the market falls 50 % or rallies to 100% from the lows on March. I really don't believe anyone has the answer.
    • SS
      Sunny S.
      24 October 2020 @ 00:39
      I think this is where position sizing with different entry points over time allows you to stay on the upside while managing risk for the uncertainty of the downside. Investing I'm learning is multi dimensional.
  • HS
    Henry S.
    23 October 2020 @ 16:18
    I've had a few issues regarding Hedgeye and these are just a few of my thoughts on it. 1) Their messaging needs to be significantly improved. On October 10th Darius hosted the show and it was titled "IT'S OFFICIAL QUAD 4 IN Q4"....... except they've now said it's Quad 3 (For now) When this gets pointed out on TMS questions and Twitter they become very patronising, defensive and even get into name calling. It's their job to convey their analysis to the subscribers and use the correct language. It's unprofessional, I'd never speak to one of my clients in that manner. It's just bad business. 2) Unless you have the entire catalog of products you'll get caught out. That makes the price considerably more expensive. Risk Range up dates come through on RTA even if it's shortly after you've received the RR e-mail, if you're paying for risk ranges you should get the updated range for the ranges that come through each morning. You're knowingly allowing people to potentially lose money. This just doesn't sit right with me. 3) TMS can be an absolute masterclass especially in regards to volatility, this is where I think Keith really shines but too often it turns into a mud slinging show by poking fun at CNBC. I don't care what they said on CNBC I'm hear to listen to what you guys have to say. Stick to your bread and butter it's so much more interesting and insightful. 4) ETF Pro barely gets updates and even Keith has admitted it's not a great product. So just incorporate it into something else or get rid of it. 5) Investing Ideas has some great content and recommendations. I think the product could be developed further. Perhaps even a show once a month with the analyst. People like myself don't put on many trades each year and I don't day trade. It's unlikely I'll ever go back to Hedgeye as I don't think it suits my approach to the markets and in all honesty I just don't like Keith and DD's presenting style but that's just my opinion. Best of luck to them though.
    • AR
      Anthony R.
      23 October 2020 @ 17:57
      I agree with these points. Also a HE subscriber and in 2020 the FED front ran the data which rendered the Quads useless. Keith's process completely missed the stimulus-lead rally in S&P.
    • HS
      Henry S.
      23 October 2020 @ 18:21
      Darius actually showed an e-mail where it was showing a Quad 2 bias on Twitter but because Keith is ultimately the PM he went with his Quad 4. Not an easy choice at all under the circumstances, I'll grant him that. I give them credit where credit is due, they got people out of equities to avoid that March drawdown but being short that rally and fighting it all the way up would be equally brutal. A drawdown is a drawdown. I could be completely wrong but this interview feels a bit like damage limitation after the Saylor interview. I didn't think Keith came off badly at all for the record, it was just a tad painful to watch at times.
    • JM
      Justin M.
      24 October 2020 @ 00:31
      The cost of time and energy it requires to deploy and execute “the process” (which I still find extremely interesting) was not worth it for me. Picking off .5% gains here and there with that much overhead did not fit my world. I agree with others here... this interview came off as if he’s reeling from that Saylor interview. Which brings me to this... From a brand perspective, KM’s persona is passive aggressive and defensive. At first that was entertaining and engaging, but as daily subscriber, became pretty off-putting in the long run. Especially when accompanied with minor returns. I no longer subscribe to HE, but will keep my eye on that team.
  • sh
    steve h.
    23 October 2020 @ 22:57
    Thanks for bringing on Keith. Both Real Vision and Hedgeye has saved me from HUGE drawdowns. I learned I can make alot of money in treasuries, gold, energy.int. markets. I was mainly a SPY investor. Thanks for the great interview.
  • DW
    David W.
    23 October 2020 @ 20:40
    I've followed and reviewed (that k goodness no trades) Keith's calls and the nicest thing I can say is the man has strong (often wrong) calls, which are the worst. No need inviting him on RV again
    • sh
      steve h.
      23 October 2020 @ 22:52
      Sorry Dude but I made so much money with hedge eye. First by not loosing back in feb/march but making a ton of $$$$$... Didint know I can mack so much in TLT, GLD, even GBTC....Go Hedgeye...
  • SS
    S S.
    23 October 2020 @ 22:01
    I lost all respect for Keith when I saw him personally attacking people on twitter for taking PPP and then Hedgeye got exposed for taking $2-3million PPP themselves despite him bragging about how good business was. Unforgivable.
    • sh
      steve h.
      23 October 2020 @ 22:49
      He was only playing the game. I think social security is a rip off... But they tax me for it.Im gonna take it.. He was helping to keep his employees. Not like those co. that were taking advantage after they bought there own stock instead of raising cash.. Your facts are wrong
  • JF
    JOHN F.
    23 October 2020 @ 12:01
    What were the books he said were invaluable, something about mandelbrot's?
    • KB
      Kevin B.
      23 October 2020 @ 13:44
      Benoit Mandelbrot - The (Mis)Behavior of Markets is one KM refers to frequently
    • JL
      James L.
      23 October 2020 @ 14:03
      Misbehavior of Markets
    • HS
      Henry S.
      23 October 2020 @ 16:32
      To his credit Keith has some truly exceptional book recommendations.
    • AR
      Anthony R.
      23 October 2020 @ 18:28
      Book : Misbehavior of Markets. Written by a French math guru who applied fractal math to many thing including the markets. (Not the easiest read). The big take-away is volatility is mostly episodic and non-trending until its not and begins to cluster usher in a change.
    • DW
      David W.
      23 October 2020 @ 19:49
      The (Mis)Behavior of Markets by Mandelbrot
  • AC
    Anthony C.
    23 October 2020 @ 19:08
    I joined Hedgeye after the last RV interview with Keith. Pretty much all the criticism of Hedgeye in the comments here is fair and deserved. They do provide some valuable insight, but it took me a few months to figure out what was good about it and what to ignore. Risk Ranges and some of the Macro Show materials (implied vol tables, etc) I find quite useful. Real Time Alerts is lighting money on fire and driving yourself insane in the process. You can also count on Keith claiming to have caught every single move, even if he just said to do the opposite on the Macro Show that morning, and then saying "pay attention" and telling you that if you paid for more products you would have gotten the info. They can be very rude. Check Twitter for Darius viciously attacking Puru Saxena for absolutely no reason that I can tell. Overall I won't be a resub next year but the service is good enough that I still use it daily while I have it.
  • CM
    Christopher M.
    23 October 2020 @ 08:32
    Been a Hedgeye subscriber for 4years I am a self anointed #hedgeyejedi as you can see from my posts on the exchange. I think this was the best well rounded description of what it is Hedgeye does I have seen even on their own content channel. A cheeky side note is you can use the quads to sweepstake real vision or podcast interviews “ooh this guy is gunna get run over by the next 2 quads and then look like a rock star next year”. It is hard for many people because we are so inclined follow story telling, a great story can give us comfort. Storytelling was a way to pass information to children fables to warn against snakes in caves, we are designed to follow stories. Machines are not and if 90% of daily trading is algorithmic and if Mike Green is correct that passive is taking over then we need to be short stories long data.
    • AR
      Anthony R.
      23 October 2020 @ 18:49
      The jock-culture within the firm makes them super defensive to criticism. Try asking a question that critiques the process on the Macro Show and notice how it gets held up "in review" and published late so it never receives any up-votes.
  • DS
    David S.
    23 October 2020 @ 18:35
    Excellent interview. Thank you Mr. Pal and Mr. McCullough. I understand the Hedgeye Risk Management market approach much better now. In my opinion all market bets are guesses based on, hopefully, some sort of analysis. Mr. McCullough developed a system that helps him to see the market from many points of view. His system gives context to the chaos that is human decision making in real time. Value investing is a different structure where the trader believes the market will recognize the value over time. There are a thousand systems to trade market. One of the best parts of Mr. McCullough's structure is he can see when the market is discontinuous from trend as a black swan appears. He needs to be ready as his trades and advice can affect the markets. Lucky for me my trades are not even noticed on a completely still pond. DLS
  • EL
    Erik L.
    23 October 2020 @ 14:33
    If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough. Albert Einstein
    • DS
      David S.
      23 October 2020 @ 18:19
      Erik L. - You are right to a point. Dr. Einstein was speaking about physics, which looks chaotic, but experimentally reproducible within a range of probabilities. The financial markets are psychological chaos. Mr. McCullough developed a system that he trusts to help him wade through the markets. I find it refreshing that he waits to see how his structure analyzes the data in real time. He is certainly smart enough to know that no one and/or system can predict the future of human decision making. We can only make educated guesses. DLS
  • DA
    David A.
    23 October 2020 @ 17:48
    Gosh, where to begin? Keith McKullough may be a decent trader but there seems to be a lot of obfuscation and bluster here. And maybe I need to re-read Mandelbrot. as I don't really recognise what I heard.
  • WS
    William S.
    23 October 2020 @ 15:57
    Just listening to KM explanations are chaotic and not always on point. To be fair there is a ton of "internal treasure trove info/expertise @Hedgeye" but gleaning it at the retail level near impossible - if an institution you get what you pay for (and u pay a lot).
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    23 October 2020 @ 14:15
    Great stuff from Keith and Raoul. Thanks.
  • JW
    J W.
    23 October 2020 @ 13:12
    Whether you agree with it or not, one has to admire the deep thought KM his put into his framework. I really appreciate the fact that he appears on RV (and vv) to explain his thoughts. Always makes for a very interesting narrative.
  • MM
    Matthew M.
    23 October 2020 @ 12:42
    Reading the reviews of Hedgeye online is pretty entertaining hahah
  • AL
    Aaron L.
    23 October 2020 @ 08:27
    These guys feel like they are best of frenemies. Haha
    • PW
      Patrick W.
      23 October 2020 @ 12:26
      It does have a little of that feel to it. I suppose it's not entirely surprising because RV and Hedgeye promote each other but yet compete for the same set of eyeballs. As for the process, the way Raoul asked the questions is exactly what I have been meaning to ask after watching the Hedgeye U. videos and reading Early Call and their weekly and quarterly products for the past 6 months. In every report, as soon as we get close to how they made the determination between the quads, fractals and Mandelbrot get brought out. That's great, but if you're running a classification and probability model, it would be great to at least hint at the feature set. I'm not asking for the Colonel's secret recipe, but I'd like to know at least if it involves pepper and salt. I still think a white paper with some toy examples would greatly increase my trust in the process.
  • NF
    Neal F.
    23 October 2020 @ 11:57
    Quads? Please. Linear thinking applied to a nonlinear problem. Does this guy sell whole life or just term?
  • RP
    Ron P.
    23 October 2020 @ 11:06
    Thank you Raoul for cleaning this up after the Sayler / Mcullough Interview. They came across as disagreeing because no one understood the Hedgeye process. Keith could have done a better job by being less defensive. In the end it does seem that Bitcoin has reached an inflection point and will break away from back tested correlations. Keith’s model will pick up on this but only after the big move has been made. As a Real Vision AND Hedgeye sub. I can say it’s all good Now the next thing to do is to explain why Bitcoin is “elegant” and the math behind it. It would be nice to explain why there are only 21 million bitcoin available and how prime numbers are unique. The public needs a KISS, Keep it stupid simple explanation of the math behind bitcoin.
  • DO
    DIOGO O.
    23 October 2020 @ 11:03
    SUPERB INTERVIEW!! ONE OF A KIND! CHEERS!!!
  • sc
    steve c.
    23 October 2020 @ 09:53
    Really interesting interview... thanks RV