Comments
Transcript
-
MCMichael, Srinivas, very interesting interview, as always between you both. Big but: the part on Japan, cash, interest rates... puzzles me. If Japan wanted inflation, they just would need to raise interest rates. On one side, if that would steepen the yield curve, that would save the local private financial system (mainly local banks, insurers). You are saying it would create more revenu since Japan population is cash rich in deposits. But it's not the young generation, who has living standards and consumption capacity much below their parents/grand-parents. It's the elder generation (the grand parents) that are cash rich. No way will they increase their consumption, and create inflation. And this would be a cash transfer from highly endebted government to elder generation. How would the government finance this, knowing the Japanese government is already running massive fiscal stimulus. It would either deteriorate even more it's fiscal situation, or the government would need to raise taxes even more, reducing consumption. So please point where I am totally wrong, and why your solution actually make sense. I would be glad to be convinced your solution is good and i misunderstand the situation and dynamics. PS: I am a long term resident in Japan, and think have some grasp about the local dynamics
-
kkTo Mike's point at 29:19: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Filter_bubble
-
APMike - waaaayyy too many Mike Greens on twitter. I want to you follow you but it would help if you shared your handle. Great interview - love your work man.
-
JHGenerally enjoy listening to Mike and Sri, but found elements of this conversation and tongue-in-cheek humour about a devastating and unusual virus distasteful. Some of these comments won’t age well at all. And already in the US we are seeing devastating impacts - human and economic- from this novel virus. Some of my Italian friends not far from where I live, would be furious listening to this. And, now we know that this is NOT a virus that just impacts the elderly. I’d humbly suggest you take this more seriously, and prepare for it coming to a community near you, if not your own.
-
CGWith regard to expectations about what government can do, we expect government to function. We expect the response to this crisis to be similar to the response to the swine flu when tests for the disease were widely available within two months of the outbreak and a vaccine was available within eight months - that is clearly not happening. Why? Because this administration is incompetent. Trump did away with the structure to deal with pandemics; the people he has appointed to deal with this problem, as with other appointments, are incompetent. Our government's terrible response has implications for our country and for others because the US cannot play its typical role of leading.
-
DSA rational discussion for March 11th, but a thousand miles away by March 22nd. DLS
-
BKLove all of the Real Vision content but Mike Green...C'MON MAN!?? Referring to COVID as a "localized threat" is foolish and insulting to those around the globe who are battling for their lives currently. Very weak and even more arrogant. Otherwise, good discussion.
-
BSDiscussing a high mortality rate for an older population and its knock-on-effects to the pension system and base dynamics is a fine conservation to have behind closed doors. Discussing that openly, along with projecting it to be a common cold variant in 5 years, comes across as dismissive. I agree with other comments that this will not age well.
-
DLAt 14:52, what was the Theory he cited where investment is the "profit source?" Had trouble understanding it because it was said quickly and I'm unable to google something close...
-
SSI have an incredible amount of respect for Mike Green. I think he's incredibly smart. Good, informative discussion. Minor point: I think both Mike and Srinivas do the audience a disservice by speculating on the future of SARS-CoV-2. We have no idea if it will become a seasonal infectious disease. I try not to venture too far into finance, and it may be a good idea for finance-trained folks not to wander too far down the domain of virologists, population health care researchers and immunologists.
-
NP"I'm really excited to infect a new guest." hahaha, he said that. Mike Green.
-
BPHmmm, "perception of a boom" sounds like a bear market rally. This downturn has been so forceful, it doesn't feel like it'll die that quickly. Maybe bounce to the 50 fib or something. So what I got, was short term, don't rule out a strong reversal, but at the same time, keep an eye on the corona virus events to see if things are getting better or worse. At the same time I'd be watching the debt markets which are currently cracking under pressure, but being super glued back together by the Fed... Very interesting times we live in. All that new liquidity will eventually find a home in equities... as always the question is of "when."
-
MMDisappointing. This reminds me of Nassim Nicholas Taleb's comment on the naive empiricism of comparing a fat-tailed process in the sub exponential class to a thin-tailed process with Chernoff bounds. Measles vs. a novel virus which has a Case Fatality Rate that is ten times more lethal and as yet has no vaccine, or treatment. We won't all get measles at the same time and bring down a health care system.
-
GFGrant Williams exits and Mike Green enters: superb interviewer
-
CDExcellent - great minds at work. Love listening to that!!!!!
-
SSGeneral comment for RV: perhaps it might be a good idea to interview a virologist/public health expert. I'm a medical genetics professor at a major US research university, and I'm not qualified to give an audience intelligent information regarding the COVID-19 pandemic. I think a bona fide virologist/public health expert would substantially aid the RV viewers in understanding the current situation ...a biological, healthcare situation.
-
MWI thought it was great. I plan to rewatch this. A lot of information on this website is beyond me and I have a lot of learning to do.
-
RWI wish they had filmed this today rather than 12 days ago.
-
BMWow...almost two weeks old! I don't understand why they wouldn't put this out two days after it was filmed?
-
MHSit down and infect a new guest... and I thought my humor was black!
-
NDA great macro conversation, covered a lot of topics - financial, social and political.
-
HJGreat conversation. Would have been nice to see in a more timely fashion.
-
RM“I’m really excited to sit down and infect a new guest today” lol!!!
-
PBThanks a lot for another great conversation Mike & Srinivas!
-
TSThank you for bringing up the morbid aspects of COVID-19. That is one of the first things that went through my mind when pondering the knock-on effects. As I get closer to that age group I embrace a more concise view of mortality. Good discussion.
-
VKMeasles don't seem to have same mortality with 0.2% (CDC estimate) compared to Coronavirus estimate of 1.4% (Wiki).
-
STInteresting discussion, thank you ... could debate further about all of these points, perhaps soon ?
-
NRBuilding the framework to position for what comes next. These types of considered discussions provide tremendous value by preparing the mind to think ahead. Yes, we must trade the current markets but spotting dislocations to come is invaluable. Outdated? It’s called Real Vision for a reason. Many thanks
-
VKWearing no masks?
-
NCWhen do we get to hear what Grant Williams is leaving to go do?
-
jsoutdated
-
SBThe piece about supply and demand was very interesting.
-
DSIf 30% of Fidelity’s investors over 70 were 100% invested in equities, that one point alone seems like over exuberance. DLS
-
DHVanguard 2035 is down 26% from peak. S&P down 32% from peak. Not much difference though...hmmm.