Comments
Transcript
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KDRead Hari's book "2nd Leg Down" and have implemented some of his long vol techniques. I've referred the book to some smart friends. I loved Jason's interview here and some of the more recent one's he's done on RV w/ Chris Cole, etc. Took lots of notes and am going to experiment with some of these structures. Bravo!
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DGExcellent interview - I'd like to see more on the mechanics of implementing long vol strategies for the retail investor. Mechanics, how to determine best prices, how to best access the various instruments, etc. Thanks
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RMFantastic interview. Thank you gentlemen
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TE@ Jason B - Risk Parity is short vol? Even with long duration treasuries and gold in the asset mix? I agree not "long vol" portfolio but surely better (more diversified) than a 60/40 portfolio. Also have you heard of the "Dragon Portfolio" that Chris Cole has talked about and wrote a report on? Any opinion on it? Basically Risk Parity with heavier weight to gold and a 20% allocation to long vol strategies. Curious for your insight(s).
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KRif you cover your growth stocks with short stocks - don't they cancel each other out, and so your net is zero?
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DDExcellent interview! Thanks to Hari and Jason for making this happen. This (network effect) is what makes Realvision so great!
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CHLoved this interview. Over the years I've been enamored with the VIX space and have been alwasy for ways to utilize the long vol tools effectively. Discovering like minds in Jason, Hari, Chris Cole, etc. mainly on RV really excites me. The last real frontier of active management like Jason mentions in the video.
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TSVery interesting however he doesn't say anything about the fees! of those trades that destroy value and the strategies!
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ADTwo very intelligent minds, loved the talk. Very interesting interview about managing tail risks, seems like making bets on VIX when predicted volatility is on the horizon (aka sept/oct this year perhaps). Seems quite similar to how Taleb would approach things, adding PUT options as an insurance policy. What I would've liked to learn more about, given, a lot of the talk in some advanced hedge-fund language that my retail-investor brain doesn't quite grasp yet, is which instruments are best to look at coming from a retail-investor perspective? I know for example with futures contracts that losses can be potentially infinite, and throw you into debt with the broker, so that is something that I would like to stay away from personally from a risk-perspective. Are there any favoured instruments for going long-vol or adding hedges to portfolios that simple retail investors can do either via ETFs or CFDs ? Preferably with limited downside risk like futures contracts. ++ Would you recommend sticking with simple options and buying PUTS on the VIX and/or calls on the S&P when sensing higher negative sentiment across the equity markets? Would it be as simple as longing the VIX when you feel the time is right with 1-2% of your portfolio?
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MOA good historical view on both Austrian economics, and vol hedging would be the book The Dao of Capital by Mark Spitznagel.
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SGI followed about half of what they were talking about but would definitely recommend this video anyways. Key thing they said for me was that gold and cash is no longer enough to insure your portfolio because of all the derivatives these days...so now you need vol to properly hedge.
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LGSubtitles are wrong. Great interview
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MKThe text does not match the webcast. It’s for Daniel LaCalle...
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TWI may be on the fringe or in the majority that thinks these very intelligent folks are talking to themselves in a language of their own, Interviews by Ed, and now especially Max, bring it back to us lowlifes.
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RANapa proper or Oakville or Rutherford or St Helena....Lunch on me @ your pick, Don G, BJ, Mus, RG or Cook. I’ve been with RV almost since inception and through RV was introduced to Chris Cole’s Artemis Vega fund several years ago which has helped to “balance” my portfolio. Hari was very kind to introduce us to your work and I found the Harry Browne references supplemented by Chris and your refinement to be timeless and noteworthy. Thanks again to both you and Hari for “dumbing down” what shall be, IMO, one of the cornerstones of future portfolio construct. Great curation by RV, nice intro by Ash and fantastic back and forth between you and Hari.
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KMGreat accompaniment to your mutiny podcast which I've had to listen to a few times to get my head around this concept. Thanks Jason and Hari, this was great
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MTSeems like gambling to me. More like sports gambling than say, craps, but gambling none the less.
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WBGreat discussion.. I loved the Camus ref at the end..I read Camus in the 7th grade, required reading in my French class. First intro to philosophy..
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PPMust watch. 2 very sharp guys. Thank you for taking the time. Excellent insight.
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DSIn a RVTV interview of Mr. Steve Diggle there was a lengthy discussion on counterparty risk in the 2008 market meltdown. Firms simply refused to pay for years until legally forced if they were still solvent. In the comment section of another interview, Mr. Diggle said that new covenants make it even more difficult to collect now in a major market meltdown. You understand your risks in cash settlements. I do not. Getting paid in a Minsky Moment, or any other moment, is a red flag for me. Thanks again for a great discussion especially the comments on statistical correlations. Best of luck. DLS
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PSHari, with the Fed back stopping corporate and junk debt, do you have a refined (or jaded) view of credit ETFs like you did last year when you thought there would be a liquidity problem?
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RGHow do we get in touch with Hari regarding his second book and more conversation about current applications of "2nd leg down option strategies. Ron
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PEThis was a great conversation! I have to confess there were several times I couldn't keep up and had to pause and rewind. Good stuff, thanks!
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TRWonderful discussion defining the significance & application of VOL strategies. Enjoyed the entire interview 2X. Thanks RV, HK & JB!
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DTCouple of charts or diagrams would been much better than hand waivings up and down.
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RGGreat interview Jason & Hari. I'm a reasonably experienced options trader and I got a lot out of this chat, particularly being long Vol being a structurally negative correlated asset class, not just a statistical neagtive correlation. Brilliant.
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DRHere is my simple analogy. We live in a world where most of our investments are correlated and mean reversion. ETFs and other products allow us to do short term volatility like buying stuff at HD for a DIY project. The new sexy in investment, long volatility, is so complicated, you can’t do it yourself, you need to hire a team of experts hopefully with different time horizons. That may not be changing any time soon because of the complexity of integrating complex systems is exponential in possibility of outcomes.
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PCThank you Jason & Hari. This was excellent education+ for me. Helps a retail investor better understand my selling of puts and covered calls and buying iVol (long fixed income vol ETF) & the occasional SPY put. I appreciate when Real Vision educates us.
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BEVery interesting. But very difficult to understand here in Retailville;
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MDExcellent - both Hari and Jason. Thanks. Loved the technical nature and philosophical ending (Jason). Despite the jargon and technical aspect (which many would understand), the overall concepts are understandable and explained well. The FX detours and basis risk are interesting to think about. High quality video, thanks again.
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DSI really enjoyed the discussion and anyone who likes Albert Camus. I will watch several more times. From my very limited understanding, I see one overarching problem for all portfolios – counterparty risk during and after the Minsky moment. Mitigating counterparty risk in "perfect" long/short hedges will separate two otherwise equal players. Like Camus, I will leave long volatility hedging, the universe and the meaning of life to others. Off to the pub. DLS
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AMWould love to see Jason have a chat with Mike Green! #underlyingdynamicsgang
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KNFantastic, Jason explains well in understandable terms for a layman such as myself to understand. Hari (the interviewer) also understands the domain well and prompts Jason to simply standard industry terms. One of the best interviews on Real Vision this month.
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RKBless you guys.
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CCFor the life of me I can't understand why this video barely has 100 votes, which usually means fewer views. For my money, this is precisely the content that delivers Real Vision's value. I almost hesitate saying this because it should be the premium content, but I want it to stay at the "Essential" value. Now, I must watch again to achieve > 70% comprehension. Thank you, Hari and Jason!
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JKGreat video - wisdom from Anchorman and Camus
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JGLovin' the new microphone
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JGLovin' the new microphone
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JDGreat information! Both parties were perfect for this discussion which is one reason I love Real Vision. I will definitely be watching this a second time. Thank you!
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JSSimply, My favorite video on RV.
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AC@Jason B Nice to see you on RV bud! Always enjoy your interviews.
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RWAsh, I haven’t heard the interview yet, but your microphone is magnificent!!!
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IJThese two form a fantastic RV duo...looking forward to more.
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JKGreat observation: "You need the creativity of an active manager to imagine what could go wrong in the markets" - something AI and algorithms cannot do.
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GCI find Jason more accessible than most managers who speak on these issues. Yet I'm always left to wonder, what is a retail investor to do? Is Taleb right that we shouldn't be in the market without risk protection? But is it reasonable to think a retail investor can prudently implement an "insurance" regime? And who can be trust to sell us that insurance? Perhaps there are no good answers to these questions.
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MCGood content (HK content always ensures interesting videos) More suited for Buy Side / Asset Managers than Retail. Two points were quite puzzling or unclear (or I completely misunderstood them). 1/ VIX near-far month term structure spread example Jason gave the example of how one can sometimes a long vix front month position by selling the far month (I guess he meant the 2nd future) and be in a carry positive position (if I understood his example). Assuming he meant a 1x1 spread, far from sure the position will be positive carry. And in a normal contango market regime, likely the front month negative carry is larger than the back month positive carry: the rational for the trade is far from obvious 2/ Diversity in long vol: Logica case Jason briefly described Logica as long option straddle, and trying to pay back the premium by scalping gamma. Scalping gamma, really? That sounds more like to what market makers do and vol machine trading systems do. Quiet a tough competitive field, and hard to believe it's easy to get back the option premium that way.
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PGGreat conversation!
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SSDid a little dance when I saw Hari’s name, and will do the same next time I see Jason’s. :) Thank you both so much. And thank you RV for bringing us such incredible content. Where else can a retail trader hear discussions of this depth and utility?
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phOne of the best content I have seen in a while. Please Come back soon
Chapters
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An Overview of the "Long Volatility" Space
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Why Most Common Assets Are Short Volatility
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The VIX As A Hedging Instrument
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Will The "Fed Put" Always Work?
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Diversification Within the Long Vol Space
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Convexity of Options: Is Long Equities + Long Vol Better Than Just Pure Cash?
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Leverage and Liquidity
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Why Is Getting Long Vol Exposure So Difficult?
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Long-Dated Options vs. Short-Dated Options
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Different Styles: Moneyness and Monetization
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The Importance of Time Diversification
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Global Macro Trades: Currency Volatility, Relative Value, and Exotic Options
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A Probabilistic Framework for Equities and Long Vol
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Parting Words: Certainty as "Philosophical Suicide"