Memories of 1987: Felix Zulauf’s Outlook on Equities, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities

Published on
February 18th, 2021
Duration
63 minutes

Tom Steyer on Generational Theft and Economic Justice


Memories of 1987: Felix Zulauf’s Outlook on Equities, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities

The Interview ·
Featuring Felix Zulauf and Raoul Pal

Published on: February 18th, 2021 • Duration: 63 minutes

Raoul Pal, CEO and co-founder of Real Vision, welcomes Felix Zulauf, legendary investor and CEO of Zulauf Consulting, to share his thoughts on the interplay of interest rates, equities, and inflation as well as share his macro outlook as debt and demographics reshape the future of economic growth. Zulauf believes that the current macro setting of rising yields and a falling dollar mirror the conditions prior to the 1987 equity crash, commonly known as Black Monday, which wiped out hundreds of billions of dollars worth of equity valuation overnight. Zulauf sees this correction not as a disaster scenario but merely a detour to another leg higher. Zulauf remains constructive on equities, at least in the long-term, due to his belief that central banks are dedicated to propping up risk assets like never before since a decline in risk assets by 10% would roughly correspond to a loss in 1% of GDP growth. Filmed on February 11, 2021.

Key learnings:
Zulauf sees a possibility of a 10-15% correction in the near-term as rising yields trigger investment models to cut back risk. He thinks rising yields will make for a bleak 2021 for gold although he is constructive on the precious metal in 2022 and beyond.

Comments

Transcript

  • KP
    Kay P.
    27 February 2021 @ 17:14
    Love this interview, his modelling and predictions are masterful. Thank you.
  • AB
    Alan B.
    23 February 2021 @ 02:44
    Felix is the best guest speaker yet! What an awesome interview / learning event.
    • AH
      Andreas H.
      26 February 2021 @ 19:57
      Agree. This interview alone was worth my subscription! Excellent job Raoul.
  • NL
    Nikola L.
    25 February 2021 @ 22:07
    Social media already started acting as per government’s narrative. Great interview btw.
  • CD
    Carlos D.
    25 February 2021 @ 12:41
    One of the most insightful interviews I've ever seen. Thank you very much for the opportunity
  • RQ
    Robot Q.
    24 February 2021 @ 21:31
    One of the most informative videos I’ve watched on RV. Thank you!
  • DG
    David G.
    24 February 2021 @ 07:31
    Awesome!!
  • TT
    Theepan T.
    23 February 2021 @ 07:26
    Anyone able to share some momentum indicators Felix is referring to ?
  • WM
    Will M.
    22 February 2021 @ 19:08
    Great wisdom for those of us who are longer in the tooth and those younger folks who understand that history is important.. This is a time to consider macro and cycles very carefully.
  • BJ
    Bob J.
    19 February 2021 @ 19:28
    Classic boomer. "Darn commies everywhere!"... "Gold is the best." ... "Bitcoin is just a silly thing for kids" ... and then the "Tulipmania" cliche.
    • KC
      Kronos C.
      19 February 2021 @ 20:54
      did you even listen to him? what he implied is that it could get very frothy and that he does not fully understand it
    • GA
      Greg A.
      20 February 2021 @ 00:17
      RIght....didn't listen to the interview obviously
    • WM
      Will M.
      22 February 2021 @ 19:04
      If you can't see the mania in todays markets Bob you have obviously read little economic history. You clearly believe this time is different. Have at it.
  • SZ
    SALEH Z.
    19 February 2021 @ 04:39
    Christ all-mighty so boring. All these traditionalist value guys still living in a different era. The world has moved on..
    • LC
      Liliana C.
      19 February 2021 @ 05:04
      Value? 🤦🏻‍♀️ wtaf
    • BC
      Bill C.
      19 February 2021 @ 05:12
      I assume your comment is a form of sarcasm.
    • IO
      Igor O.
      19 February 2021 @ 13:01
      Bitcoin fix this.
    • WM
      Will M.
      22 February 2021 @ 19:01
      Poor comment showing financial and historical immaturity.
  • PB
    Patrick B.
    18 February 2021 @ 11:37
    A wealth tax of 0.2-0.4% is "murder"? Just $10-20k p.a. on $5mn - barely a month's expenses for someone with that level of wealth Don't get me wrong, I'd prefer not to have one, but it's hardly murder
    • MR
      Marco R.
      18 February 2021 @ 13:48
      multiply by 20years and include an inflation rate. For retirees it is for sure brutal, because their income increase cannot keep up. They are forced to cut or sell assets
    • ss
      steven s.
      18 February 2021 @ 16:36
      in context of negative yields too. double hit on negative yields and wealth tax - about 1% negative. you have to take risk or have income or slowly lose 1% a year.
    • WM
      Will M.
      22 February 2021 @ 18:50
      Its all in the details but in general a wealth tax is not the way to go. Either just get rid of the tax loopholes or replace the progressive tax with a combination of a flat tax (e.g. 15%) that everyone pays over a certain threshold (say $25k in the US) combined with a simplified high net worth wealth tax that kicks in at some high level (say $500k in the US). However, critically the US also needs to extinguish the lifelong political machine through introduction of term limits for Representatives and Senators, ending donations to politicians and finally the earmarking of bills must be ended. The latter currently allows politicians to keep their lobbyists and 'bribers' sweet. Too few people today understand how corrupt the political system is.
  • MH
    Mark H.
    21 February 2021 @ 20:23
    Everything Moves Towards Communism All Of The Time™ lol
  • LW
    LUKAS W.
    21 February 2021 @ 17:28
    From emerging markets I see Poland increased surplus in economic trade from 2019 to 2020. After a drop in equities in mid of 2021 there will be a perfecr moment to go long over there. PS. Even in 2018 it was promoted to a developped market it is still perceived as emerging so it is traded as emerging.
  • JK
    John K.
    19 February 2021 @ 01:17
    I respect what this man has done but wow was it a lot of whining about taxes and more regulation lol. This is the lowest taxes have been in modern history. This is the least amount of regulation we’ve had in half a century. If anything you can say we were in a tax and deregulation bubble and it’s finally coming backs lmaoo you don’t like the game don’t play it. I guarantee you there will be far more social unrest if the governments did nothing. You saw how big BLM was last year. That’s probably the biggest protest in American history. The farmers in India have held the largest protest ever in the world to fight against this deregulation of their sector because it allows big guys to come step on the little farmers. Lol I know mr. Free markets doesn’t like regulation but I think we’ve over done the whole deregulation no taxes thing
    • AB
      Alan B.
      19 February 2021 @ 02:58
      See you in Four years and we will see which one eats his words. This man spent the time to lay out history to you and all you see is short term minded views.
    • MB
      Marc B.
      19 February 2021 @ 13:25
      It sounds like you started thinking a year ago and never looked behind you.
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      21 February 2021 @ 07:09
      Oh dear...
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    21 February 2021 @ 07:05
    Fantastic interview. Thank you both! Felix has the most insightful and coherent outlook of anyone I've heard.
  • RS
    Richard S.
    21 February 2021 @ 00:21
    This was an excellent interview. First rate in all respects. Informative with great clarity. Interesting that Raoul mentioned John Hussman. I read the Hussman Market Comment every month.
  • PK
    Peter K.
    21 February 2021 @ 00:01
    Thank you for this interview. One of the best in the last year. Great questions and insights.
  • TS
    Thomas S.
    20 February 2021 @ 23:40
    Raoul has become a great interviewer. However, would have loved for Raoul to challenge Felix dollar thesis by exploring the the eurodollar debt and the demand for dollars
  • ND
    Nicole D.
    20 February 2021 @ 02:28
    Jam packed full of wisdom, like the videos used to be, thank you Felix and Raoul.
    • RI
      R I.
      20 February 2021 @ 19:50
      Key point: “like RV videos used to be.”
  • RS
    Ricardo S.
    20 February 2021 @ 17:33
    This guy is amazing! Great interview Raoul
  • LG
    Luca G.
    20 February 2021 @ 06:44
    Amazing video! clear, pragmatic and with a lot of tips on what to expect. Some of the investors on videos just talk about macro without saying what they are going to do with their assets / portfolios. Not only we want to learn from these great people but we are also interested in knowing what are they doing with their own money...
  • OS
    Otto S.
    20 February 2021 @ 04:17
    Thoughtful, deep, smart, maybe 100 things I had not heard before. What a great interview! Also I think Felix would be awesome to have around a campfire to shoot the breeze.
  • tc
    thomas c.
    20 February 2021 @ 01:06
    Fabulous. Excellent. I really appreciate hearing a sort of conservative pragmatic European mindset. Raoul asked the great question near the end about Bitcoin - "what about your kids". Their generation will decide what it will be, probably already did.
  • LT
    Lisa T.
    19 February 2021 @ 23:40
    I always learn a lot from Felix. Awesome. Thank you.
  • TN
    Tim N.
    19 February 2021 @ 10:49
    Excellent interview. Does democracy inevitably lead to communism/socialism as unproductive parts of society vote for increasing shares of the productive parts of society through taxation thus making more and more people rely on the state? Perhaps there should be constitutional rules that force governments to balance their budgets over their terms.
    • JT
      John T.
      19 February 2021 @ 22:26
      I think the idea that a private system is always more efficient than public is inaccurate. Monopolies are worse than governments at serving the public good. In electrical grid management for example, they have no incentive to invest and repair and every incentive to pull out cash when possible. For capitalism to work, you need competition and you need understanding at the regulatory level about how the incentives work. Bad regulations cause bad business practices to drive out good companies just like with the mortgage market in 2006. The goal should be to increase the feedback of individual choices rather than an all out push to privatization of government roles.
  • BC
    Bill C.
    19 February 2021 @ 22:21
    This is one of those videos that makes me realize the value of RealVision.
  • DF
    David F.
    19 February 2021 @ 21:55
    Why are the current choices between a Plutocracy or Corporatocracy? How did we get here and why can't anyone in charge seem to locate the middle ground? Since the chances of being stuck in this purgatory are...likely. Where do we chase the money? I'm asking anyone for help here! Tell me where to stand so a bag money lands on my head. Thank you.
  • BK
    Brian K.
    19 February 2021 @ 21:22
    This was excellent. Thank you.
  • mk
    munira k.
    19 February 2021 @ 21:11
    I loved this interview. Felix is brilliant! Please bring him back soon!
  • GJ
    Gareth J.
    19 February 2021 @ 20:01
    Thank you both for this insightful interview
  • LK
    Landon K.
    19 February 2021 @ 18:06
    Very good one.
  • TE
    Thomas E.
    18 February 2021 @ 18:22
    Really good interview. I disagree with the China analysis. That China is going to rule the world or over take the U.S. I would encourage people to read "Dis-United Nations" by Peter Zeihan. China along with many many other countries has benefitted enormously from the world order the U.S. instituted to combat communism during the Cold War. The Cold War ended when the Soviet Union collapsed in the early 90's. The U.S. has just been on cruise control since - until recently. The U.S. no longer needs the order it created. The U.S. is turning inward because being the police of the world is expensive and no longer suits the needs of the U.S. Globalization has had it's peak and is now going to begin it's decline. China is a major exporter who relies on the order the U.S. has created to be able to export it's products. Without the order those exports don't happen. Demographically, China's population is going to half - HALF - in the next 50 years. It faces the worst demographic collapse of any country anywhere. China can't produce enough food to feed it's people. It can't produce it's own energy. It has to import the vast majority of it's energy needs which by the way comes from the Middle East and the Straight of Hormuz. The U.S. in leaving the Middle East and the Straight of Hormuz. Plus that oil has to sail by India who's not a fan of China's not to mention all the other Asian countries China has alienated. Without the order it's hard to import as well. The U.S. in energy independent and produces more food than it needs. China has been on a massive spending binge for the last 30 - 40 years. While the national government doesn't have any debt per se the local governments and government businesses have massive amounts of debt that they just keep rolling over. Building cities no one lives in and bridges to nowhere provided much needed jobs. But that can only go on for so long before that house of cards collapses. Again, China isn't anywhere close to being the threat to the U.S. a lot of people believe it is. When the U.S. steps away from the order which it has already begun to do China will be one of the hardest hit countries. As for Taiwan - the U.S. isn't going to allow China to claim it back. It's too strategically important to the U.S. and to Japan. So needless to say the U.S. will have plenty of help.
    • CB
      Clifford B.
      18 February 2021 @ 19:33
      So on the one hand you say the US is going inward then state the US needs Taiwan, Japan? In case you have not realized China is not a "threat" and never intended to be one. For them it's business as usual with no intention of leading the world. The US on the flip side is busy fighting wars all over the place and sanctioning countries at will so they can stay #1. Will definitely be an interesting next 30 years to say the least.
    • TE
      Thomas E.
      19 February 2021 @ 17:33
      @ Clifford B. The US doesn't need Tiawan or Japan. It's the other way around. Again, when the U.S. ceases to police the world which it is already starting to back away from then what? Global trades doesn't happen. The current order has been around for only 80 years. What has happened has been the exception not the rule. The U.S. will maintain its relationship with Japan and Taiwan to keep China in check. But without the U.S. China doesn't prosper. Yes the U.S. can sanction any country for whatever reason. Now that the U.S. has caught on to China's shenanigans it's going to be a much harder road for them. As stated above - read the book. It's an interesting read if you are interested in geopolitics.
  • SB
    Stephane B.
    19 February 2021 @ 17:06
    What is the best way to invest in Asian currencies ?
  • SB
    Stephane B.
    19 February 2021 @ 16:55
    That was just amazing.
  • MF
    Mike F.
    19 February 2021 @ 14:18
    Fantastic interview. Great content, concise viewpoints.
  • MB
    Marc B.
    19 February 2021 @ 13:22
    This was an amazing interview. More of this please. The interview with Russell Napier and this one give a very accurate vision of what is to come.
  • Nv
    Nick v.
    18 February 2021 @ 12:53
    Disagree on social media regulation. That starts this week with Facebook - Australia Great interview
    • PP
      Patrick P.
      19 February 2021 @ 13:05
      Actually it started a month ago with the governor of Florida ... Ron DeSantis telling the socials you will not be able to ban Floridians without a huge financial cost. https://miami.cbslocal.com/2021/02/02/florida-governor-ron-desantis-social-media/
  • CU
    Christian U.
    19 February 2021 @ 11:31
    Amazing!!!! Please more! Especially loved the chart of the zombies and definition of how stuff works. Would love more charts and data and technical.
  • HM
    Hugh M.
    19 February 2021 @ 10:19
    That absolutely flew by. Great interview.
  • AW
    Angela W.
    19 February 2021 @ 09:50
    Felix’s 1987 comparison is very interesting. He is anticipating a potential crash end of US Summer, early Spring. This dovetails with Hedgeye’s view that current Quad 2 conditions will flip to Quad 4 in Q3 2021. I wonder if some of the elements in Felux’s model are similar to Keith’s.
    • AW
      Angela W.
      19 February 2021 @ 09:52
      Sorry, Spring is September, down under.
  • SR
    Steve R.
    19 February 2021 @ 09:29
    I just love the way Felix explains things - he makes it just so easy to understand what he is saying. Fantastic to learn from a legend like Felix!
  • IR
    Ian R.
    18 February 2021 @ 17:04
    This is NOT ON, the map on the wall behind his head, does not have New Zealand on it! Jes man New Zealand rules the RUGBY WORLD! We sooo important!
    • SR
      Steve R.
      18 February 2021 @ 23:39
      I am an American, but I have an All Blacks shirt. I still cheer for the Eagles (someone needs to), but will NZ be open for the world cup? I already had covid, so can I come in?
    • DC
      David C.
      19 February 2021 @ 00:10
      The events on Oct 26 2019 in Yokohama would suggest otherwise.
    • RI
      Ryan I.
      19 February 2021 @ 09:26
      Springboks!
  • AW
    Abigail W.
    19 February 2021 @ 08:10
    Didn't know, Felix also studies Gann cycle. ;-)
  • MM
    Michael M.
    19 February 2021 @ 08:05
    Brilliant interview. I was busy scribbling notes throughout. Thank you
  • JS
    John S.
    18 February 2021 @ 20:53
    Amazing video! WoW. What about some gold miner picks on a RV Pus video? :)
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      18 February 2021 @ 21:01
      This can be arranged.
    • JS
      John S.
      19 February 2021 @ 07:21
      Yes please! :)
  • OM
    Olya M.
    19 February 2021 @ 06:30
    Amazing interview. Thank you
  • BC
    Bill C.
    19 February 2021 @ 05:39
    Once again, I suggest Raoul and Company do a studied special series about how the world got into this pathetic economic shape.
  • BC
    Bill C.
    19 February 2021 @ 05:33
    At roughly minute 40 what he is describing the the longer term 'doom loop."
    • BC
      Bill C.
      19 February 2021 @ 05:35
      Oops, that was at minute 20 or 21. It was at roughly 40 minutes left.
  • FS
    Filo S.
    19 February 2021 @ 05:25
    Great interview. Zulauf is one of the most respectable market experts in the world. Thank you for this. Excellent content. Will watch it again. PS...I tried to power share this with 10 friends and they all received the email from your site but without a link to the video. Can you please check it out and fix if possible. This is one of my shortlist videos I want to power share with friends. Thank you. Filo
  • LC
    Liliana C.
    19 February 2021 @ 05:06
    Great questions Raoul! 👏👏👏👏👏
  • AP
    Andrew P.
    19 February 2021 @ 04:53
    I love listening to Felix. Nothing outrageous, just a well structured and pragmatic approach. More concerned with the outcomes of current policies rather than their merits.
  • MH
    Michael H.
    19 February 2021 @ 04:41
    Bravo!!!
  • DD
    David D.
    19 February 2021 @ 04:27
    Wow, best ever I think? I was on edge the entire convo.
  • ks
    kenneth s.
    19 February 2021 @ 04:22
    Felix expects a lower dollar. Was not expecting that. Don't think the stock or bond mkt is either.
  • DJ
    Dennis J.
    19 February 2021 @ 03:32
    It struck me after watching this...the central banks are trying to offset decades (past and future) of aging and slowing population dynamics. Japan was first to the party on both accounts. Europe followed with US crossing Rubicon now. China is right there. Centrals are forced to inflate artificially that which is organically leaking out. Covid will only accelerate this. Thus deflation till about 2050? All other factors are fighting this massive tide with occasional headway only to be swept away again. Did I use enough ocean and balloon metaphors?
  • MH
    Matthew H.
    19 February 2021 @ 03:30
    Is there any way a humble retail investor like me can get access to his newsletter? Maybe a Real Vision promotion? ;)
  • GS
    Gerald S.
    19 February 2021 @ 03:00
    Another great interview! RV is one role this week.
  • DD
    Daniel D.
    19 February 2021 @ 01:19
    Felix NEVER disappoints! There's so much to unpack, I'll have to watch again with my note pad.
  • WC
    WJ C.
    19 February 2021 @ 00:53
    Wunderbar!
  • RC
    Robert C.
    19 February 2021 @ 00:53
    Great conversation. Really like Felix and his historic and world outlook. I am a Felix fan, agree on the managed economies outlook. You did well to. Thanks for this one.
  • WG
    Wade G.
    19 February 2021 @ 00:45
    Absolutely outstanding. So clear and plain spoken, yet subtle, sophisticated, and useful. Thank you RV, Raoul, and Mr. Zulauf. So much to think about.
  • BM
    Brendon M.
    18 February 2021 @ 09:05
    Two things were excellent. 1. Raoul gets the most quality talk time for the guest as possible. 2. The guest is top tier from outside the North American context. It is fantastic to hear from these professionals. The opinions from these quality guests come from an historical and global viewpoint that are fantastic to be exposed to.
    • MV
      Matt V.
      19 February 2021 @ 00:08
      I agree. I was critical of the Howard Marks video earlier this week, this video was the exact opposite. Felix flowed well, had ideas and opinions that he wasn't afraid to share. They were able to go Macro and Micro.
  • DJ
    Dennis J.
    19 February 2021 @ 00:04
    Loved the discussion on 87. I was only 17 (so long AquaNet) but the setup is fascinating in context with right now. The time-frames and cycle history was also very informative.
  • MD
    Matt D.
    18 February 2021 @ 23:57
    Great interview Raoul. I hope his outlook doesn't come true (with all respect) - I don't want to line up for state mandated footwear. Yikes. Thanks Felix, thanks Raoul.
  • CS
    Christopher S.
    18 February 2021 @ 23:55
    And this... is why I love RV.
  • LM
    Luke M.
    18 February 2021 @ 23:40
    Outstanding level of wisdom
  • OC
    O C.
    18 February 2021 @ 23:36
    Great, great stuff. Thank you for this.
  • AS
    Alex S.
    18 February 2021 @ 21:23
    I was literally hooked for the full hour, that guy can talk. Love listening to Zulauf
  • NA
    Nicolaie A.
    18 February 2021 @ 21:08
    One of the best videos on RV ever! Thank you!
  • JS
    John S.
    18 February 2021 @ 20:49
    As i said on the exchange Taiwan invaded by China in any way is a very risky event. I agree with all that the interviewee says but I do not agree that Biden is not hawkish on China. He is and regretfully of we have such an event and out of a pandemic I do not want to be apocalyptic but expect a nuclear crisis. Hopefully I am wrong...
  • NR
    Nathan R.
    18 February 2021 @ 13:30
    And just think, you could’ve heard this for free last October with Grant Williams...
    • AR
      Alexander R.
      18 February 2021 @ 20:18
      Nathan, I guess ask for your money back !!!!!! Also, you should at least think how the world works. Conversations like this happen based on personal connections and mutual respect and have nothing to do with money. I bet Mr Zulauf would not talk to you, even if you will give him all your money. A thank you to Real Vision would have been a much better option.
  • EK
    Eduard K.
    18 February 2021 @ 19:31
    Amazing! Felix is one of the greatest!!!
  • dw
    douglas w.
    18 February 2021 @ 19:20
    To quote Felix, and he's forgotten more than I will every know about markets; On gold miners: "At the end of a good bull run, they usually value the gold in the ground." Classic quote! With most of the focus on growth stocks and on crypto, which is awesome I own it, don't forget about gold, own a little, because it too will have its time. Different dynamics for sure, but I'm listening with open ears when Felix shares his wisdom. Thanks RV.
  • bf
    bill f.
    18 February 2021 @ 18:53
    listen to saifedean, some of the greatest violence is under socialist/communist governments
  • bf
    bill f.
    18 February 2021 @ 18:52
    here's an impossibility: a free market in the Australian property market. (property prices and bank share prices)
  • AC
    Andrew C.
    18 February 2021 @ 18:48
    Great convo. Certainly get him back on a regular basis!
  • TP
    Timothy P.
    18 February 2021 @ 18:17
    Felix absolutely nails it. The current political regime crawling towards communism/central planning, all of it. One of the best interviews I've seen on RV in months, barring a few. You can tell Felix is on the mark by the somber expression on Raoul's face - as it flies directly in the face of his stronger dollar bet.
    • TP
      Timothy P.
      18 February 2021 @ 18:31
      As an addendum - naturally as a older guy, he misses the point of crypto. (But he does admit that partially is due to his generational views.) Also, his Tulip Bubble comparison is flawed. The Tulip Bubble wasn't even what people think it is - a lot of the contracts which were like modern-day futures didn't even deliver. It was a paper market that collapsed on itself, and most people walked away and didn't honor them. Reference - https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/there-never-was-real-tulip-fever-180964915/ Anne Goldgar discovered the historical reality when she dug into the archives to research her book, Tulipmania: Money, Honor, and Knowledge in the Dutch Golden Age. Quote: In fact, “There weren’t that many people involved and the economic repercussions were pretty minor,” Goldgar says. “I couldn’t find anybody that went bankrupt. If there had been really a wholesale destruction of the economy as the myth suggests, that would’ve been a much harder thing to face." The tale was amplified by Christain moralists as a warning of excessive wealth. "...those come from propaganda pamphlets published by Dutch Calvinists worried that the tulip-propelled consumerism boom would lead to societal decay. Their insistence that such great wealth was ungodly has even stayed with us to this day." Much like how RV promotes the "Bitcoin Maximalist" slur without acknowledging its petty history being coined by ETH competitor Vitalik Buterin. Say it often enough, and everyone accepts it as fact.
  • JM
    John M.
    18 February 2021 @ 18:25
    Felix obviously made a great call on gold last August! I would have greatly appreciated more insight as to how he made that call. What was he looking at that the rest of us missed???
  • RB
    Roberta B.
    18 February 2021 @ 18:20
    63 FANTASTIC minutes, with super interesting points of view and very useful perspectives: MILLE GRAZIE!!! "Excellence is never an accident: it is the result of high intention, sincere effort, intelligent direction, skillful execution and the vision to see obstacles as opportunities" Anonymous
  • FG
    Ferencne G.
    18 February 2021 @ 17:50
    ZULAUF. People with a name that starts with Z are so rare. They are unique and they are really intelligent it seems.
  • DG
    Duarte G.
    18 February 2021 @ 17:39
    A Masterclass...Thank You
  • ND
    Nivtej D.
    18 February 2021 @ 16:43
    Wow! I couldn’t wait for this and it didn’t disappoint. Great depth and breadth with no fluff. Thanks to RV and Grant Williams for originally highlighting this investor to me.
    • ss
      steven s.
      18 February 2021 @ 17:10
      Felix is an all time favorite. I hope Real Vision tries to interview him on a regular basis. It would be great to hear these great minds on a twice or three times a year cycle.
  • JD
    Joe D.
    18 February 2021 @ 17:10
    Awesome Interview!
  • JR
    Jack R.
    18 February 2021 @ 16:41
    Always engaging to listen to Felix. Have been a fan of his since the Barrons' Roundtable days. And I think he is right 70% of the time. But that is not what is important. He has opinions and is willing to share them. The complete opposite of Howard Marks.
  • MW
    Michael W.
    18 February 2021 @ 16:12
    Nice interview. I was quite disappointed to hear him reference the “Tulip Bubble,” which arguably never happened as we were told.
  • PU
    Peter U.
    18 February 2021 @ 14:07
    World class investor and gentleman!
    • TE
      Tito E.
      18 February 2021 @ 15:21
      Top class act. And as relevant as ever.
  • hb
    hilde b.
    18 February 2021 @ 15:10
    Thanks a lot for the interview, great insights and overview for the year to come. On the subject of communism, sad, very dark times ahead. Nobody understands, nobody cares, so the road to perdition lies open and ahead, for the majority except the politicians, its few crony servant capitalist and the ones who have already 4/500 mio usd in reserves now. No rotten tomatoes on the market and bad shoes for these guys ! I think demographics will decline even more substantially, how many people will survive in such a society, no life quality anymore at all, fewer solidarity and , and and, ... suicide rates exploding, Death has a great future ! Communism !!
  • CB
    Clifford B.
    18 February 2021 @ 15:06
    Excellent discussion. Very clear. Please have Mr. Zulauf back
  • MZ
    MARTIN Z.
    18 February 2021 @ 15:05
    Excellent interview
  • MR
    Marco R.
    18 February 2021 @ 13:45
    Brilliant
  • NF
    Neal F.
    18 February 2021 @ 13:41
    Felix is as good as macro gets. Great interview.
  • LH
    Landon H.
    18 February 2021 @ 13:05
    It’s important to understand the timeline of the cycle. There may be a short near-term correction, but sounds like the end-of-cycle decline is later on after asset prices go higher.
  • df
    diamantino f.
    18 February 2021 @ 12:14
    Raoul face when the decline of the dollar, bonds, priceless, thanks for this great interview
  • Ts
    Thordur s.
    18 February 2021 @ 12:06
    Great interview Rooted in experience and guided forwards by wisdom
  • SG
    Sashi G.
    18 February 2021 @ 11:22
    I like seeing Raoul ask most of his guests in his interviews their view on the USD - as he is a believer of the strong dollar. I think it is one thesis of his that has not been right for over a year now and is not likely to be. Hard to explain it given the strange monetary world we are in, but the signs are really clear on that. The "short dollar" argument with respect to debt is not really right in my view - one can always default on debt.
  • tj
    thomas j.
    18 February 2021 @ 11:01
    great guest, great interview. bravo
  • RG
    Richard G.
    18 February 2021 @ 10:56
    Absolutely top class!! - Get Felix on regularly please!
  • SR
    Sam R.
    18 February 2021 @ 10:44
    Absolutely brilliant! Thank you for this, RV.
  • CL
    Charles L.
    18 February 2021 @ 10:04
    8 minutes into the video ans this is already ridiculously good. What a vision Mr. Zulauf has...
  • IO
    Igor O.
    18 February 2021 @ 09:41
    Cycles don't work for timing. It can be 6 months late or early and still be valid.
  • KS
    K S.
    18 February 2021 @ 08:50
    One of the best guests to have on regularly. Fantastic interview. Thank you!
  • DR
    De R.
    18 February 2021 @ 08:05
    the best vid for this theme!
  • BS
    Benjamin S.
    18 February 2021 @ 07:56
    Excellent, thanks for doing this one. The 1987 setup may be upon us. Really enjoyed this analysis.