Milton Berg: The Return of the Turning Point Master

Published on
August 10th, 2020
Duration
45 minutes


Milton Berg: The Return of the Turning Point Master

The Interview ·
Featuring Milton Berg

Published on: August 10th, 2020 • Duration: 45 minutes

Milton Berg, Founder and CIO of Milton Berg Advisors, joins managing editor Ed Harrison to analyze the technical patterns and market internals on his radar. From his repository of over 10,000 indicators, Berg selects and discusses the ones he thinks are most compelling, such as 5-day breadth thrust, consecutive volume-up days, and the put/call ratio. Berg then observes that the equity markets are behaving like commodities, in that they are trending upward as volume spikes. Lastly, Berg and Harrison try and reconcile some oddly bullish indicators with the macro backdrop with Berg casting doubt on the long-term sustainability of central bank’s ability to ballast asset prices. Filmed on August 6, 2020. For additional charts of Milton Berg’ Advisors, click here: https://rvtv.io/2PIkD49

Comments

Transcript

  • MW
    Marcus W.
    4 September 2020 @ 00:20
    Please have Milton back. I also suggest he try twitter out.
  • jt
    john t.
    30 August 2020 @ 14:02
    ed is def single with that background :D
  • MW
    Marcus W.
    30 August 2020 @ 10:09
    Watching again
  • VG
    Viktor G.
    15 August 2020 @ 11:05
    Brilliant! Possibly, equities now show similar pattern as commodities because with the March low we begun a new era of a long lasting downtrend. The pattern that we used to see at the low in equities now will be at the highs on the way further down.
  • NR
    Nelson R.
    15 August 2020 @ 04:36
    Milton is pure gold, a treat to watch.
  • SL
    Sean L.
    14 August 2020 @ 12:46
    Can we please get another 3 hr ep with Howard, ASAP
    • SL
      Sean L.
      14 August 2020 @ 12:47
      Milton* [face palm emoji]
  • RB
    Robert B.
    14 August 2020 @ 00:34
    This was a fantastic interview! Really enjoyed his nuanced views, his ability to weigh data points that support both the bull and the bear case, and his reasoning to get to his cautious view given his extensive experience in the markets over decades. Please bring him back in the future!
  • PB
    PHILLIP B.
    12 August 2020 @ 23:46
    Great interview. Great perspective. Even the very best are trying to get their heads around it. Amazing. Very helpful. fyi...gives the synopsis of his outlook and a summary starting at about minute 40:00.
  • JS
    Jon S.
    10 August 2020 @ 20:43
    Ok I call the top here and now 3363 😅
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      12 August 2020 @ 22:55
      Two days later, 3380. Amazing. Confusing.
  • PJ
    Patrick J.
    10 August 2020 @ 10:40
    Reading tea leaves
    • TE
      Tito E.
      12 August 2020 @ 20:00
      What do you do Patrick?
  • NR
    Nathan R.
    10 August 2020 @ 11:31
    Anybody else think Ed found Harvey Keitel’s long lost brother? This should be titled The Wolf and the Market. Great interview and thanks to both gentlemen.
    • MJ
      Marc J.
      10 August 2020 @ 12:53
      I kept thinking he was going to pop a cap in me!
    • JL
      John L.
      10 August 2020 @ 18:20
      Oh, you sendin the Wolf?!.....That’s all you had to say.
    • TE
      Tito E.
      12 August 2020 @ 19:59
      Bad lieutenant more like
  • DB
    Daniel B.
    12 August 2020 @ 03:14
    That was great! Please bring him back. I would like to know how he is positioning his portfolio for a potential bear market.
  • BG
    Brady G.
    12 August 2020 @ 02:44
    Excellent. Milton and Kiril S. are my favorite guests.
  • WM
    Will M.
    11 August 2020 @ 18:56
    His views on the covid impact and mishandling were just great. What a common sense perspective compared to what is happening today. The shutting down of the economy will destroy the economy. We have become numb to the impact of enormous debt. Political correctness is rife and division increasing. Its a mess of historical proportions.....and come the US election run up "you can take it to the bank", that this will get much worse.
    • jc
      james c.
      11 August 2020 @ 22:25
      Ditto
  • DS
    David S.
    11 August 2020 @ 14:47
    Fantastic interview and insights. Please have him back often
  • BA
    Bruce A.
    11 August 2020 @ 09:49
    Another great interview by Ed. Amazing how so many great minds are confounded by the current situation.
  • CT
    Chris T.
    10 August 2020 @ 14:59
    the equity index peaks vs USD terms is somewhat meaningless given moves in USD.. the world doesnt revolve around the USD
    • DB
      Douglas B.
      11 August 2020 @ 02:39
      Yes it does
    • HS
      Hamish S.
      11 August 2020 @ 09:11
      Yes, it does, or it did until it doesn't.
  • MD
    Matt D.
    11 August 2020 @ 05:20
    Excellent interview, thanks Ed and Milton. One of the more original pieces of analysis I've seen. Hard to ignore.
  • NI
    Nate I.
    11 August 2020 @ 04:33
    I wish Ed would have asked about the switch to commission free trading at the big brokers. That must have impacted volumes. I also wonder if Milton's indicators have altered meanings in the passive world where buy or sell decisions have no relationship to prices (investor gives me cash, I buy. investor wants cash, I sell. hit any bid, or any ask).
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    11 August 2020 @ 03:57
    One of my absolute all time favourite RV guests.
  • PP
    Patrick P.
    11 August 2020 @ 03:34
    What has happened to the market structure? One word "ROBINHOOD"
  • TB
    Tobin B.
    11 August 2020 @ 03:13
    Big pump and dump short squeeze at 6/8. If you follow the repo activity it peaked on 6/5/20 at 105b that day. Distortions as the "markets" become the "pension fund" for the boomers and the "government" foots the bill. Translation: buy gold. Milton you are a genius and I continue to be fascinated by your indicators since the interview I saw with you months ago when you mentioned eclipses. Too bad you didnt mention the Jupiter Saturn Earth Conjunction that peaked the last half of July; I would have liked to see your take on that event.
  • BH
    Benji H.
    11 August 2020 @ 02:51
    Best interview since March about what’s going on
  • SY
    Steve Y.
    10 August 2020 @ 23:53
    Great interview. Needs to be on more often. And if im not mistaken, he called the Dec 2018 bottom based on his proprietary indicators.
  • BB
    Ben B.
    10 August 2020 @ 23:52
    Great to see someone else who sees that supply and demand has nothing to do with commodity markets. Try a correlation between the copper price history and LME stockpiles. I worked at a mine once that was supplying over 5% of the worlds silver it basically had to shut down for 3-6 months to rehab underground workings. What happened to the silver price...............FA. I always say that all gold mining could shut down and nothing would happen to the price. Hey it is what it is and as long as we can read whats going on then it can be played to advantage. Great insights into whats going on and could happen, thanks Milton and Ed.
  • CM
    Cory M.
    10 August 2020 @ 22:25
    Can someone cite reference to Ben Graham turning technical? I’ve heard it somewhere else, but it’s still shocking to me.
    • PM
      Parth M.
      10 August 2020 @ 23:45
      In Milton`s previous interview in RV itself he mentioned the same thing. i think this one https://www.realvision.com/shows/how-i-got-my-start-in-finance/videos/learning-how-to-spot-turning-points
  • PM
    Parth M.
    10 August 2020 @ 23:42
    Thanks Guys, for getting Milton Berg on RV. it would be nice to have him back once more before the elections, To see what his indicators are baking. He is truly a turning point wizard!!
  • RM
    Robert M.
    10 August 2020 @ 23:08
    Excellent interview, it shows how difficult it is to read the markets right now, even though the economic picture is dire with few signs of improvement.
  • PG
    P G.
    10 August 2020 @ 23:07
    The books in the shelf behind Milton do not look like regular books. What type of books can this possibly be?
  • VB
    Vincent B.
    10 August 2020 @ 22:46
    Not quite following on Milton's claims that indices haven't made new highs since mid-June. Most of them have since end of July - this was filmed on the 6th of August.
    • RM
      Robert M.
      10 August 2020 @ 23:01
      I think he is excluding the FANG stocks.
  • DR
    David R.
    10 August 2020 @ 09:23
    Thank you Mr Berg for your interview and providing the additional charts. Greatly appreciated. Bravo RV for having a rare guest who brings a technical perspective. Like Louise Yamana, Sven Henrich, Mish Schneider. Need more of that please as IMO we need both technical and fundamental views. Definitely some sentiment analysis too. A strategic triad.
    • CM
      Cory M.
      10 August 2020 @ 22:22
      Milton is head and shoulders better than those short termers.
  • KG
    Kos G.
    10 August 2020 @ 21:35
    Dear Mr Berg (if you happen to read the comment section), Long time ago I read your "Boundaries of Technical Analysis" paper. Are there any other books/papers you wrote? Anything you made public recently?
  • RA
    Robert A.
    10 August 2020 @ 21:13
    Excellent interview and it is noteworthy that the facts as Milton lays them out do not lend themselves to a “call” one way or the other—accordingly, Milton does not try to assign probabilities one way or the other. I’ve been with Jim Stack for 30 years and he likewise uses these “upward thrust” indicators which are very rare and have one sided upward market bias subsequent to their being triggered—I don’t want to put words upon Jim Stack, but my impression from his recent writings is that he too is somewhat bewildered by what they are indicating THIS time. Great curation Milton, this was a fantastic interview (although maybe my praise is misplace on your little wooden head and you just picked a guy with a name you liked).
  • ND
    Nitul D.
    10 August 2020 @ 20:11
    There is also an argument made - that a lot of institutional money sitting on the sidelines when they get FOMO, might chase the leaders (tech stocks) much higher, pulling the broad index (S&P 500) with it. And a broader FOMO might happen if the Feb 2020 highs are taken out decisively and S&P500 start trading let's say a good 100-200 handles above. This could be scary on the upside.
    • DS
      David S.
      10 August 2020 @ 20:53
      Since institutional money can hedge portfolios well, they may just be waiting in cash - for better or worse. DLS
  • TS
    Thomas S.
    10 August 2020 @ 19:49
    Great interview. Every once in a while, it's good to hear someone articulate why this "rally" could be a head fake. That remains my view, but it's increasingly difficult to sustain. Nice to hear some of the data that may back up that view. Thanks guys!
  • PE
    Paul E.
    10 August 2020 @ 18:55
    Mr Berg is like a doctor using all his indicators to come up with a diagnosis of the markets. This was very interesting!
  • AP
    Adam P.
    10 August 2020 @ 18:42
    Milton has such excellent insights. I was so happy to see him back; it has been WAY too long! TA is so much more than chart patterns and moving averages. Unfortunately, that’s usually the extent of what gets shown to the masses. The work he does illustrates the depth and breadth of the discipline.
  • TM
    The-First-James M.
    10 August 2020 @ 18:38
    I think I can recall Dan Tapiero highlighting the same breadth indicator in early June, discussed at length in this interview. He took it as strongly bullish, and did not question it.
  • DS
    David S.
    10 August 2020 @ 17:12
    Very enjoyable interview. Thumbs up. The stock market is acting more like a commodities market. I agree with Mr. Harrison about the passive effect of the stock market. Mr. Berg interpreted the question as the 401-K effect during tax season. I think Mr. Harrison's comment had more to do with wealthy "Silicon Valley" types playing in the market creating vast passive flows. Regardless, many good practical points were made to help me understand the markets. Thanks. DLS
  • SM
    Stephane M.
    10 August 2020 @ 11:02
    Nice job once again Ed! Can you change your dying orchid plant by one of your kid's drawing?!?!? Loved the snowman but you must have others too ;-)
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      10 August 2020 @ 16:45
      Thank you, Stephane. The orchid isn't dying; it's blooming! My wife pointed out the blooms to me yesterday. Take a look on the RVDB today if you get a chance. Cheers, Ed
  • LB
    Lorenzo B.
    10 August 2020 @ 16:01
    Pls, consider giving Mr Berg a fix spot on the show like once or twice a month
  • ml
    m l.
    10 August 2020 @ 15:06
    Yeee more technicals
  • LB
    Lorenzo B.
    10 August 2020 @ 14:58
    what is the impact of the dispersion in the index (most of companies getting hammered while FAANGS being overbought) in distorting the June8 breadth thrust?
  • ER
    Eric R.
    10 August 2020 @ 12:05
    Ed brings out the best in people. To do that you must be prepared. Ed apparently always is. In addition he lets people talk and does not interrupt all the time. Well done, as always, Mr. Harrison!
    • MS
      Martin S.
      10 August 2020 @ 14:43
      Couldn’t agree more
  • so
    steven o.
    10 August 2020 @ 14:03
    RE: the fed "I think there's still some rational space on these guys' brains" <--- love it. Great interview.
  • DL
    David L.
    10 August 2020 @ 13:57
    Anyone have a reference for the Montgomery cycle? I've not heard of it before. (A quick search just gave bicycle shops.)
  • RM
    Richard M.
    10 August 2020 @ 13:46
    Great discussion by Milt and Ed (Ed really is the best at bringing out the best in interviewing people - that is now that Grant is no longer with us!). I really appreciate Milt's skepticism regarding all his bullish indicators even though he professes to be a "data guy". Years of experience can sometimes give you that "spidey" sense that something is wrong even though everything "looks" right.
  • JM
    Jason M.
    10 August 2020 @ 11:27
    Great interview: Does't Passive reduce volume. hence a different conclusion
    • DR
      Derrick R.
      10 August 2020 @ 12:42
      Do you expect flows to increase, decrease or stay the same? Did you hear that XOM has cancelled 401k match?
  • BS
    Boris S.
    10 August 2020 @ 11:49
    Nice interview, could have kept it goin. I would not mind another 30 minutes of Mr. Berg ! :)
  • PU
    Peter U.
    10 August 2020 @ 11:45
    excellent
  • PB
    Pieter B.
    10 August 2020 @ 09:43
    Thanks a lot Milton & Ed!
  • CC
    Cornelius C.
    10 August 2020 @ 09:42
    What about the indicators for bonds and commodities or other asset classes?
  • JE
    Jonathan E.
    10 August 2020 @ 08:56
    Some great points made and I agree with the deflationary outlook and his explanantion of equity moves which I believe is due to bond proxy behaviour.
  • RK
    Roger K.
    10 August 2020 @ 08:32
    Very good analysis!