Comments
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LCInteresting you conclude half the admin may go to prison, in the context of explaining how Madison avenue works. Your're behavioral bias seems to be a presumption of guilt based on that dottering old buzzard Mueller, except your source of knowledge is who or what? What neurotransmitters are being manipulated in your brain, because they are being manipulated. Maybe if I play the Sandals commercial often enough I can get you to buy a vaca. Don't you want the time of your life? Well dontcha?
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LCThe experiment with Mary in a gray room has been run https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sJQYBWUqdIE
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zyOne of the tips of Austrian Theory professors explains here the mistakes with GDP and the over focus on consumption as a driver of growth, Raoul you should interview professor Huerta de Soto, is a brilliant mind, friend of Daniel Lacalle https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OzvzL8BnMXQ
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BMGreat thought provoking conversation - more, please! Raoul's potential big surprise of it muddling along for more than a decade more feels intuitively wrong when we have actually been muddling along for at least a decade at the cost of even worse underlying conditions (more debt, more mal-investment, greater leverage, greater friction/fragmentation). It may be right, but it would suggest an even greater worsening of these conditions and I don't dare to imagine what the world would be like under those worsened conditions
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SBAnyone willing to offer me even odds that half (or more) of the present administration don't end up in prison? (joke) Lots of great thoughts. Enjoyed this. I'd question how much fire there is to the smoke that Russian bots successfully manipulate us (on major votes) through the internet (eg that this is the main reason that the British voted to become independent of the EU). Clearly there may be some valid examples of Russian bots, however I've looked and can't find any. It feels mostly like a conspiracy theory itself. I searched for Russian bots on Twitter and couldn't find anything obvious. I went to the BBC who gave me the Twitter handles of two supposedly Russian bots. I followed them however their content seemed no more partisan or compelling than most other Twitter users! People would have probably been much more motivated to change their mind when President Obama came to the UK and urged the British people to vote to remain under EU rule. Rightly or wrongly, our leaders will always try to use the most persuasive techniques to get the outcomes they want. Hope to see more discussions like this, even if not everyone agrees.
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CCa wide ranging tour de force, worth watching again and maybe again. two great thinkers riffing off each other. this is one of the all time best pieces on RV.
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BFHave to wonder? Is there something that slows the multiplying ,multiplexing effect of technology down?
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GVGreat video. Especially the ending where Raoul pontificates on whether the Trump administration goes to prison. I remember working at the largest tech hedge fund in the world in 2000 and my boss telling me that internet stocks never go down. I remember when Bernanke said there was no subprime housing problem. I remember when CNN and the mainstream media said Hillary would win by a landslide. All I hear is smart people saying Trump is going to prison. So I'm going to take the other side and ask: What happens if it is the PREVIOUS administration that actually goes to prison......from a behavioral perspective, it will be very interesting to see how these "intelligent" people react when everything they thought they knew was wrong. It will be interesting to see who will admit fault. They never thought she would lose....
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JSMinute 34. Roughly. This is the key to the next 20+ years. We've only seen the beginning.
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CHClever shit
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WMI think Raoul's end comments about the administration are really interesting. Irrespective of personal opinions about right or wrong, left or right, criminality or not...... I fully believe the schism in society is clearly heading to a crisis point not only in the USA but in the EU and across the world. We simply have not seen the worst yet and it is going to get a lot worse. I do believe that if Mueller tries to press for a prosecution of Trump on NON-Russia related crimes, the basis for his investigation, the Nov elections may shock everyone in a way they didn't expect. The impact on the financial world of this, and Italy and Brexit and Turkey and Argentina and ...and...and... all feels like a prelude to chaos. I am watching the RVT / Macro insiders and Armstrong Economics in a perhaps desperate attempt to get just a bit ahead of it all from a wealth perspective. Great discussion leading to a few sharp comments from folks here below. Lets keep an open mind.
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DDVery thought provoking topics. Two comments. First, why do we (I mean society) start with did the Russians do this or that. Let's assume they did. Who cares? Are we worried that people voted exclusively based on what they read on twitter or facebook? I think that's a bit naive. If true, prove that it was statistically meaningful to change the outcome. My own bias tells me most of them don't even vote. Also, do we really believe that we here in the good ole USA don't do/haven't done similar things throughout history. That all the nefarious activities are reserved for the Russians and Chinese. Second, I refute most of the worries as to the implications of AI which I believe are extremely overdone both good and bad. Great for data analysis, can self learn quantitatively but is greatly exaggerated as to the capabilities to predict our behavior other than analyzing purchase behavior (that's not so difficult). To get to another level that most worry about, computers/software will need traits such as inference, consciousness, experience, perception, emotion and yes maybe even a soul. The only way they get those is through programming/writing of code which is done by a human ( I know we are going to teach a computer to write code but who will teach it-a human) and comes with the lifetime experiences, perceptions, inferences, etc. that the programmer has had in their lifetime whether they are conscious of it or not. I think we start running down roads of yes or no, agree or disagree too many times without asking how, why or who cares.
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FDEven though Raoul is great at bringing forward many burning questions of this time, I'm disappointed that nothing has been said about what the scientific world is pointing at as one of the biggest threat to all the systems: climate change and it's repercussions
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VPIt is amazing how othervise intelligent and brilliang people believe in the BS propaganda of the mainstream media about Russian influencing of US elections and all the other crazy accusations against them. RT don't look like CNN on those subjects.
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JMThis is brilliant on so many levels. One of my favorites, by far.
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CJRaoul for president
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MS"Robert Mueller has not put a foot wrong" + "Neither of us are coming with any particular bias in it" = Okaaaaaay! Robert Mueller, Time magazine person of the year runner-up 2017. Time magazine... Time Warner... owners of CNN... OK! No bias at all. The fact that during this entire discussion (((they))) were never mentioned once, is testament to (((their))) cunning and deception. If you want to understand what's going on behind the scenes, what will answer ALL of the points discussed.... you only have to look into (((them))) and their place in history. I'll say no more, other than Dee comes across much better in conversation than he did in his horrendous World on the Brink series. Peace.
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TSTerrific program. Implicit is that an economic and social reset is inevitable. On YouTube millennial's are debating these issues and slowly building a consensus of solution. Nestled on top of this phenomena is the development of the “Intellectual Dark Web” consisting of a group of intellectuals representing a cross section of political, social, philosophical and scientific thought with Jordan Peterson seemingly at the center.......Something is happening. For example, Jordan Peterson and Sam Harris can hold a series of debates across Europe and No. America on the role religion should play in giving society an ethical grounding and they get audiences of 2000-8000 young people paying $50+ per. Plus there are hundreds of thousand views online........Eric Weinstein is at the center of all this and would be a good RV interview on the idea of a reset and it many ramifications. ......Eric Ross Weinstein is an American economist, writer, and managing director of Thiel Capital, Peter Thiel's investment firm. Harvard PhD in mathematical physics.[1] He writes on investments, capitalism, science, and mathematics.
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TRAbsolutely Fantastic, It really helps put the present, past and future into context.
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PDYou guys at real vision should look into spiral dynamics and integral theory, it will offer you an awesome framework through which you can gain a deeper insight into why things are happening the way they are. It will help explain the way people and societies evolve and the possible next steps of the journey. Ken Wilber’s book the “theory of everything” or “trump in a post truth world” are good intro’s into the subject. The second title is a practical application of part of the first title.
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NJIs Dee Collins drinking a pint of Boddingtons in this video?
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FRaoul and Dee,your dialogue was truly fascinating,enlightening and thought provoking! Having two people engaged intellectually discussing important ideas,concepts and outcomes, in a wide range of topics, without being rude,yelling and political was truly enjoyable.
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DWWonderful example of the algorithm checking hotel booking sites in real time. With big data taking over shale oil as well as satellites tracking tanker movements, I’m sure same accuracy in real time is transforming futures trading.
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FAGreat video but I disagree with with the political conclusion. I think as most know where the political criminal behavior was nesting....
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WMExcellent dialogue. Thank you very much Dee and Raoul.
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TR50/50 chance the entire Administration goes to prison. In one statement Raoul loses years of built up credibility. Stop watching the MSM.
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GSThese videos put me to sleep every night. Boom, roasted!
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PNIf Pal is really worried about the fragmentation of society he should be desperately hoping that the Mueller probe comes up with nothing. After the completely corrupt governments of Obama, Bush, Clinton and Bush got a pass for their various... misdeeds... if they impeach Trump the current fragmentation is gonna be nothing. Jail Trump and/or his family and as BTO famously sang "You aint seen nothin yet."
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ACThe future is here now just not widely disseminated. “China is implementing it’s ill conceived system social credits/demerits. “ Did you see that Uber Australia is banning / suspending clients who have a low ranking? Black Mirror, anyone?
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SNThe section on behavioural economics was excellent! Also nice to see Raoul show some doubt towards his natural biases at the end. Truth is we really don’t know how even the most obvious trends and imbalances will play out.
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KSPeople are going to be slaughtered and it is sad, but hopefully they will learn some lessons. I have a fifteen year old son and when he was given $400 for his birthday - it was his to do with what he wanted. I was very proud of him when he came to me and asked if I would take it and buy some silver eagles that he could save.
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usGreat chaining of ideas and presenting past and present to project the future. Starting to wonder if Raoul is also student of Austrian school of economics. Great material and summary of facts. True macro in scope.
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PGFantastic!
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GRHow about a bank of good deeds?
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TSTwo points.....1. Raul ends an excellent interview professing a love of change. Of course he does, it drives his advisory business! :)..... I'm old and lived through the changes he mentions. Like a damn fool, I guzzled the Kool-aid (as did most Americans) and embraced an incredible array of changes. Looking back, as Raul does in this interview, I'm now considerably more skeptical. How can we not given the incredible wreckage brought about by unintended consequences of the well-intentioned as well as financial fraudsters. Since none of this is slowing down, we are spending an increasing amount of time having to identify changes, assess their concomitant wealth redistribution implications and their impact on our personal wealth. None of this is particularly productive and it's sure irritating...... History shows Americans are pretty good at embracing and adapting to a changing landscape. But, they are now less willing to tolerate an incompetent and dishonest ruling elite (i.e. Taleb's IYI = Intellectual Yet Idiot) that are better at spawning unintended consequences than they are in problem solving (or accepting responsibility for their actions). Also, there is backlash against increasing corruption in our political and financial institutions and our endless wars..... 2. Trump crashes on the scene and we are scrambling to make sense of it. Everybody has an opinion and given his personality, it's almost impossible to make an unbiased judgment about how the election fits into Raul's anti-change backlash narrative. An objective review of post-election sociological studies is attempted by a Columbia University sociologist in the following YouTube interview: “Why Trump won and could win again | Robert Wright & Musa al-Gharbi [The Wright Show]”. It's a surprise.
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PCI'm far from convinced of the virtue of having an ID system for everyone just so people cannot do bad things anonymously on the internet. Seems like the cure is worse than the disease. The system would have to be global which would most likely mean a centrally controlled operation: who would you trust? The ID numbers have to be bound to an individual in some physical way: neither fingerprints, photos or even DNA can do this without error. Security services, intelligence services and law enforcement services would all want access to the system for surveillance and other purposes. Governments would want to be able to create fake IDs for their own purposes. The adminstrators of the system could be bribed or coerced into disclosing or altering information. People who are considered undesirables by the central authority could have their IDs cancelled and become non-persons. And no amount of clever people can create software without bugs: exploits would be potentially highly valuable.
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SUThis was 10/10 Thanks so much.
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ydAnother great presentation, thank you Raoul Pal. I think that Real Vision should publish a new weekly episode featuring just Raoul! Who's in?
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WSI gave the interview a "thumbs up" because it was so thought-provocative. That said, I not only disagreed with a great many of the perspectives expressed, but in my considered opinion, the conversation regarding the internet advanced many ideas that I believe to be *extremely* troubling; ideas which, if implemented by government as policy, compliance to which is to be *enforced* by government, cannot but lead to a dystopian Orwellian despotism in which "social credits" and "social demerits" are applied with the brutal indifferent bias of whichever underlying ideological predispositions inform the construction of the controlling algorithms. No matter how you slice it, it is tantamount to the imposition of a social gospel (and accompanying behavioral regimen) designed to reshape -- in a very homogenizing fashion -- the perspectives and thought processes of the entire global body politic. This is not only ultimately a fool's errand (for the simple reason that thousands of generations of human nature and cultural conditioning will defy radical reshaping), but the very aim and process itself would necessarily become an exercise in misguided tyranny. Whether or not there is an inherent rational supremacy in a social gospel that venerates cosmopolitanism, globalism, anti-nationalism, anti-traditionalism, etc., it will be perceived by a substantial portion of humankind as being hostile -- even existentially threatening -- to: culture, religion, and freedom of thought, speech, and action. Indeed, I am personally convinced that any attempt to remedy what Raoul refers as the "splintering effect" of the internet as it has developed over its first quarter-century will not only fail to achieve its objectives, but is likely to provoke even more "splintering" and foster more extreme expressions of rebellion, and ultimately insurrection. I am also persuaded that China, in implementing its ill-conceived system of "social credits/demerits" is very likely sowing the seeds of intense social resentment and ultimately revolution. I believe the radical democracy unleashed by the internet is a genie that will resist to the death any attempts to put it back into the bottle. At any rate, although I have many more thoughts regarding these things, I think I'll stop now and leave my critique limited to what I have already said.
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JGInteresting and informative discussion. Rattled my cage in several areas. I will think on this for some time and probably watch at least one more time. I would prefer governments be limited to protecting our liberty and nothing else but also don't see that happening again in my lifetime.
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RWA very cynical view of human nature. Man is incapable of virtue and only driven by impulse that needs to be directed by someone else who knows best. The question is who? They are describing a very sterile world devoid the good, the true and the beautiful.
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tcGlobalism is the human equivalent to the attempt by agri business to destroy bio diversity. It destroys human diversity. Just reduce humanity to a common denominator. Economies of scale become governments of scale and the whole planet is easily and efficiently managed. Is that how the beautiful mosaic of people and life on earth will end up? At the deeper core of all the change in the world is a change from the increasingly object referral world, no question there are more and more objects to refer to than our ancestors ever dreamed of. The change is to a self referral world, where we are defined by our inner being and not the objects and relationships we interact with all day. Without getting into the past work of psychologists, mankind is not doomed to the life of Pavlov's dogs. Look back in history and beyond western civilization. It wasn't always like that and won't be for much longer. This is the century of change. Science and technology have literally driven us out of ourselves Human consciousness will come back to it's inherent nature or we'll all be living in the matrix
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CTDee Smith = poor mans Jordan B Peterson
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FCRaoul, the man! Great shirt too, Raoul!
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DRIt’s great having the chapters! Not so great watching from my iPhone and having the clock count down to zero, and no timeline
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DSThanks for the heads up on the Goldsmith interview. He reduced all the complications to wage arbitrage. The rebuttal economist was also smart, but always came back with I have a study that shows without a doubt. Of course, Goldsmith knew the mind of a CEO and predicted the outcome. The US corporate tax cut used a simpler misdirection. Many economists said the tax cut would be used for wage growth, where the CEOs and boards used much of the tax cuts for stock buybacks. I agree with the corporate tax cut over time- a thee to five year period. The corporate profit effects are in 2018 while the debt from lower tax revenues is forever. DLS
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KNDo you guys know any retail broker who offer exotic FX pair such as USD/ARS to trade?
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NFTim Berners-Lee invented the World Wide Web (hypertext transfer protocol).
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SCI find it shocking that it has taken this long for me to hear someone else bring up the fact that robots can't buy products!
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CBPertaining to AI - There’s a big impact difference between automating muscle and automating intellect. As a retired computer geek, I’m concerned.
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BLThe first chapter of Eric Hofer's book Ordeal of Change very explicitly describes much of what is happening in the world today and is very congruent with the ideas expressed in your conversation. Enjoyed very much.
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SCAlso, does anyone have any experience with licensing ALGO-developers? I'm a firm believer in human PM's an AM's doing the research, speaking to people, making the investment decisions, but having part of your capital working in ALGO program is the new diversification, IMO.
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JMI enjoyed this conversation. This is an important area of study and I would like to see further discussions on "Behavioural Economics" themes. There were many lightning rods that provoked engaging discussion as evidenced by the excellent (and respectful) comments below. Thanks to all. More please.
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SSWhat are the names of the companies that ping hotel websites as mentioned in the interviews?
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NFJames Goldsmith interview from 1994 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YW6KkF6aa_A
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ALI greatly appreciate Raoul Pal's world view. I have to amplify the critique of short-term-ism by way of an idea I bat around alot and this is what I call the macro-narrative. Not in the macro-economics sense but in the stages of civilization sense. The macro-narrative is about our ultimate hopes and dreams, fears and threats, the mundane and the magical, the simple and the complex, the heroes and the villains, the spiritual and the physical, they are all understood in the context of the macro-narrative, they are all story arcs and characters written in the pages of the macro-narrative. We all are conditioned to take this macro-narrative for granted, it is the air we breathe, it is everything and yet never noticed or discussed, never questions, it just is. All about our ultimate animal, cultural, spiritual, societal urges are expressed in the macro-narrative. Our current macro-narrative is being written in the language of progress embodied by technology. It was not always this way. Go back a thousand or so years and it would have been all about our relationship with God. That is a macro-narrative founded on the idea of the eternal. Your world view is going to be very much about the long term, about the eternal. Contrast that with the basis of our current macro-narrative, technological progress. It fundamentally means orients toward the next big thing coming down the pipe, it orients toward the notion of the past being forever outmoded by the present. Nothing persists, it gets replaced. Multi-generational households or tribes and Inter-generational wealth transfer used to be the norm. Now the norm is every generation goes into debt deeper than the last to to get a car, to leave home, to get educated, to get a job, to get a mortgage. The wealth transfer still happens but rather than to the next generation it goes to the bank. How many times over has the full value of a single property bee paid for in interest alone by all of its various "owners" Compare that with the result of not having a mortgage for many generations. This is a fundamental aspect of our current paradigm, the macro-narrative implies it and and we all dance to that tune. I am all for equality but in a labor market, do you not think that doubling the supply over a couple decades has no impact on the value of the worker? As women went into the workforce they diluted the labor market and halved the value of work. If this were not true we would see a windfall of wealth from the old single earner households to the dual income households. But amazingly it seems we have simply been working twice as much just to keep up. These are all parts of the macro-narrative because the technological progress story is one of discounting the old values for the shiny new technological goods. Ill stop now but had to share that.
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DSDee Smith has been one of my favorites since his first interview. I learned even more in the dialog with Raoul. If I watch myself when a new topic comes up, my current beliefs and rational arguments in support of my belief arises immediately. To try to see a situation from another point of view, I need to clear the decks of my current arguments first. By being comfortable with cognitive dissonance, Dee may short circuit this process. New insights are not gained by maintaining and entrenching current beliefs without testing. I may retain my current belief, but at least I have looked at a different point of view with a more opened mind. DLS
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PBThis was awesome! Thanks a lot Dee & Raoul!
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SPThis was one of the best discussions on RV. I loved learning that AI companies can ping hotel websites to know their financial results before they do. That changes the investing game completely! This video just reiterated to me how important it is to start a company and have a business and a trademark that generates cash flow and that could be sold in future. Ironically after being interested in the stock market from such a young age, RV content has actually made me realise how I should NOT be focusing on stocks but on building a company instead.
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PDTwo takeaways that reinforce speculation of an implosion in GDP: 1. A possible collapse in the birthrate, due to rising pressures and egocentricity and 2. "Robots don't consume" which raises the question as to two will buy future output. The boys however get lost when discussing the implications of Internet security and defence. The Russians, Chinese and Iranians are boy scouts compared to the NSA when it comes to data theft, cyber attacks, IP theft and online surveillance. Not only do the Americans have back doors into all of the the major online tech companies, including the cyber currencies (through the on-ramps) they almost certainly launched/cooperated in the Stuxnet virus which took down an Iranian nuclear reactor. Furthermore the idea that the Chinese built their latest carrier, using US technology is laughable. That carrier's structure is modeled on its twin, the the old Soviet Varyag and is in turn about three decades behind the capabilities of modern US carriers. That said, great interview, good fun and out-of-the box thinking.
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SW"government has not yet used it (behavioral economics) for the good" Can it? Can government really use any "controlling mechanism" for "the good"? Where are the greatest price distortions in the US economy, i.e. sectors where prices have increased greater than inflation: 1. education, college in particular 2. healthcare 3. financial assets Each of these sectors is (arguably) inflated because of government controls and interventions for "the good". The interview and discussion is interesting and thought provoking, but also entirely too glib about government "nudges". China's recent foray into social incentive/punishment is not "interesting" - it's horrifying. In the US, nudges have caused tremendous price distortion. In other countries, nudges have lead to poverty, abject misery, pain, suffering and genocide. Yes social media enables a greater degree of tribalism. On the one hand. On the other hand, anybody I know with half a brain long since stopped using facebook as a platform for political expression. In my circles, only the least reasonable and least intelligent continue to do so. I would argue there's at least the chance that all of this fury and flurry over social media exacerbating bias by exploiting inherent irrational fast thinking is somewhat overblown.
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DRI’ve been a member since RV started, and I’ve seen hundreds of good videos. This one ranks near the top. Excellent.
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DSExcellent. The combining of Raoul and Dee's different backgrounds allows for a great dialogue while posing the macro questions of the day. DLS
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KTExcellent discussion. Each of you contributed to the others thoughts in a value added way.
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Svinteresting. People largely do not vote on issues, they vote based on feelings concerning the candidate. They like one and/or hate the other.
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DSOne driving force in the universal minimum wage is business. If consumers cannot earn disposable income by working, how will they buy our products and services? They certainly cannot borrow more to buy if they do not have a job. Maybe the government can go into massively more debt to sustain consumer spending? Not a good idea for many reasons. DLS
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dwOne of my favorite lines in this interview: "I try to have cognitive dissonance, because if I don't have it, I think I'm convincing myself that I understand something that I maybe don't understand...if you're going to use it as a tool, you have get used to being disturbed." - Dee Smith I must say, I see Dee Smith in a much more positive new light under this original one on one interview format.
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JMGood video, however they only briefly skimmed over the effects of systemic corporate criminality and the destructive ramifications of it via environmental, social, and political outcomes.
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TEI had no idea the current tech giants had such a meeting with Kahneman ..like a modern day Jekyll island scene
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MCDeeply insightful and philosophical content. When it comes to AI, the colour red story nails it for me. I wonder if an AI dominated system would be more fragile and hence more prone to sudden collapse and failure.
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NFRaoul has such an engaging speaking style and he's so good at articulating his framework - I wish he did courses
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DSLoved the Goldsmith comments. Interview is on YouTube. I will watch later today. Thanks. DLS
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JDGreat Conversation...
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rRDee is awesome! His voice sounds just like Zach Galifianakis too. Great video guys...Much better than listening to CNBC!
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CYthis is just brilliant. so many original ideas.
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V!Excellent thoughts guys. Always good to hear from Dee, he has a knack for asking the questions we all should be thinking about. I’d like to see an interview with AI. For instance what it’s thoughts are about it’s intelligence being called artificial.
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mysubtitles are important for asian viewers like me
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mysubs = subtitles.. thanks
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mythanks for the subs