Napier and Johnson: The Money Riddle

Published on
November 13th, 2020
Duration
77 minutes


Napier and Johnson: The Money Riddle

The Interview ·
Featuring Russell Napier and Brent Johnson

Published on: November 13th, 2020 • Duration: 77 minutes

For the past decade, Russell Napier has correctly called for disinflation, dissenting with the conventional wisdom that inflation is on horizon. Yet he has changed his mind, and in this conversation with Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, Napier explains why he believes the inflationary tides, so long delayed, may soon arrive on the shores of currencies such as the dollar and the euro. Napier argues that fiscal authorities are, via macroprudential regulation, essentially compelling commercial banks to lend and are also requiring them to hold unattractive assets such as negative yielding debt. This new force, Napier continues, will succeed where quantitative easing (QE) has failed in expanding commercial bank balance sheets. Johnson and Napier analyze how this new potential regime will impact affect pensioners, students, and savers as well as how it will shape the destiny of every asset class ranging from equities to Treasurys, from European bank debt to currencies, and from mortgage-backed securities to fine art. Filmed on November 11, 2020. For more charts, click here: https://rvtv.io/3lsOdZw and https://rvtv.io/36BS7cC. Key learnings: Rapid growth of the money supply coupled with low inventories could push the U.S. into a reflationary whirlwind. Napier has an inflation target of 4% for the OECD because he believes macroprudential regulation will compel large financial institutions to lend and hold dubious assets to an unprecedented degree. This view is not necessarily bearish for the dollar, nor for emerging market (EM) currencies, which might prove more resilient than many anticipate. But, it does spell trouble for the Euro, which is already in a bad way.

Comments

Transcript

  • LO
    Luke O.
    17 November 2020 @ 08:18
    The need for wages to increase is acknowledged by both presenters to be critical for inflation. But how are wages going to increase?
    • JW
      J W.
      21 November 2020 @ 10:57
      That was my thought as well - I guess it depends on timelines. In the short term companies are still shedding jobs IMO (Raoul’s insolvency phase) and they won’t increase wages. Maybe towards the second half of 2021 or 2022 we might see wage increases.
  • JL
    Jorge L.
    21 November 2020 @ 09:56
    Hi RV team! Thanks for such an amazing conversation. You should enable to copy qnd paste the description of the episode in the RV app to make it easy to click on the links posted
  • MB
    Matthias B.
    20 November 2020 @ 19:31
    would be interesting to know how close to the endzone that hail mary pass actually is. that was an educational masterclass by RN!
  • jl
    james l.
    19 November 2020 @ 13:10
    Great video! I watched 3 times to understand thoroughly.
  • SB
    Stewart B.
    19 November 2020 @ 11:46
    For me the key takeaway from this was the concept of a Macro Prudential enforced 'Cap Day'. IMHO this is Monetary Policy 4.0 (to extend on Dalio's 3.0 numbering). I always worried that a highly indebted society faced with rising inflation and hence rising borrowing costs would be catastrophic. Any attempt by our politburos to pin the yield curve would result in more narrow money, hence further exacerbating inflation and rates. However I think Napier has the answer to what our rulers will do - 'Cap Day'. When it comes, government will force the financial repression onto the private sector, rather than merely supporting the fiscal spending of the public sector. Thank you again.
  • TW
    Tom W.
    17 November 2020 @ 08:09
    He seems to think you just increase money supply you magically get inflation. No mention of demographics, psychology of spending, global trade patterns, technology etc. All gonna have a far bigger impact on inflation/deflation than the overly simplistic central banks add to M2 therefore inflation argument.
    • TN
      Tim N.
      18 November 2020 @ 13:33
      Hi Tom, both arguments can be correct - think of the time frames. Demographics , AI etc are long term trends- money printing, bounce back loans work in the short and medium term. ie I expect significant asset price and CPI inflation in the next 5 years but long term we will fall back to the deflationary trends you identified. Also there is a possibility that if the expected post corona boom is too exuberant we could get a massive deflationary bust a la Hary Dent.
  • TW
    Tom W.
    17 November 2020 @ 18:30
    For those who want more of Russell.... as noted below, he, in other interviews (e.g. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dc4Vux8BZ7Y&feature=emb_logo), likes gold at around 33% - making Rickards look like a gold bear- , value stocks and NO bonds. Note: Anyone who is advocating NO bonds maybe could see the big end of Raoul's pool cue
  • HR
    Howard R.
    17 November 2020 @ 11:34
    Full marks. A great guest who was very thoughtfully interviewed by Brent.
  • IH
    Ian H.
    17 November 2020 @ 11:08
    Russell Napier, 10 out of 10 interview. So interesting to hear this point of view.
  • JC
    Jason C.
    15 November 2020 @ 04:06
    Is 4 years of foreign capital accumulation by China under Biden enough for the hail mary to work? Is there any reason to think Biden wouldn't sell out to China if he's inaugurated in January? I hear he would continue Trump's tough policies on China, but I'm skeptical he'd make them any tougher. What about Harris?
    • PS
      Peter S.
      16 November 2020 @ 05:57
      I hear Elizabeth Warren is being considered for treasury secretary. Keep in mind Kyle Bass has said in the past that she would be tougher on China than even Trump. Doubt she gets the role though. My guess is Biden admin will be easy on China as has Clinton, Bush, and most of all Obama.
    • JC
      Jason C.
      17 November 2020 @ 03:26
      I also doubt Warren gets the job. Dems are wanting to root out progressives, even faux-progressives like Warren. And that's interesting what Kyle Bass thinks about her, but, after this election cycle, I have a hard time believing she would stray far enough from the party line to make such an impact. I agree with your conclusion though - Biden will continue the policy on China that his establishment predecessors had, except with less felatiating rhetoric. I've already seen a former TreasSec talk about ending the trade war after extracting "reciprocal and tangible benefit" (politico-speak for saving face) and Kissinger advise Biden that China tensions could lead to a catastrophe comparable to WWI (though I fear he might be right on this).
  • RH
    Ron H.
    16 November 2020 @ 05:11
    Continuing to think this great interview over the past few days, I also came across the following quote by Albert Edwards published in a John Authers' newsletter from two months ago, which is directly relevant to Russell's thesis here: "Personally, I believe this rapid money supply growth will actually worsen the current deflationary bust. Why? The flipside to looking at money supply growth is to look at its counter-parties on the asset side of the banks’ balance sheets. It is clear that the main driver for the recent explosive 25% monetary growth has been bank lending to industrial and commercial companies, which despite only comprising a quarter of total bank lending has contributed some 70% of the total rise in lending over the past year, surging 30% yoy. One thing we now know for sure after Japan’s lost decade: keeping zombie companies alive with “extend and pretend” bank loans creates deflation, not higher inflation."
    • GS
      Greg S.
      17 November 2020 @ 00:16
      His key point was that it was not banks lending, but the guaranteeing by the federal gov't of things like PPP loans (i.e. grants). Which is arguably illegal without exigent circumstances of the federal reserve (their liabilities are not allowed to be legal tender). And his assumption was that the federal government will continue to do this, but this first dose got money aggregates up 17%.
  • jc
    jonathan c.
    16 November 2020 @ 13:08
    Not going to lie, a lot of the content here flew way above my head! I probably understood about a quarter of what was said.. More than happy to watch this one again as there's a lot to unpack and a lot to learn. I echo comments below on the quality of this interview. Outstanding.
    • RC
      Renzo C.
      16 November 2020 @ 22:52
      print the transcript...
  • RC
    Renzo C.
    16 November 2020 @ 22:52
    great interview . Russell is 10/10
  • CE
    Christoph E.
    16 November 2020 @ 19:59
    your SO RIGHT about ther Euro!
  • MS
    Mio S.
    16 November 2020 @ 19:58
    “To be ignorant of what occurred before you were born, is to remain always a child...” (Cicero) which is why RN is always an adult and marshals his formidable historical knowledge to explain clearly and concisely what is most important for investors. Like Brent, I’m also an RN fan and always pay attention and respect to what he has to say! Thank you both for sharing.
  • CE
    Christoph E.
    16 November 2020 @ 19:55
    could you please stop calling china a emerging market? its far ahead of amerika so its the other way around, amerika is the emerging market
  • BM
    Bruce M.
    16 November 2020 @ 10:52
    What an excellent conversation; so well laid out. I grab the chance to Russell whenever possible, but that was the best interview that he has given IMO. The credit for that goes to a large degree to Brent, who guided the interview with some really great questions.
  • DT
    Daniel T.
    16 November 2020 @ 09:22
    Question to Brent: If your general milkshake theory points towards dollar strengthening relative to other currencies, what can cause a more sustained dollar weakness in your framework?
  • MS
    Milkey S.
    14 November 2020 @ 13:27
    The last 9 minutes was most insightful for me, as Russell eluded to, the efficacy of USD is highly dependent on if people elect to trust it, if most people lose faith in the USD system, then they'll choose something else as a SOV. This is highly not priced in but the most likely path IMO, it's time has come to pass-like everything on a long enough time cycle, evolution is coming to rear its head on this antiquated system.
    • LS
      L S.
      14 November 2020 @ 14:41
      That's fine, you'll be right one day, but that doesn't mean any time soon, necessarily. So tell us, MIke, what replaces the USD or dollar system? That's the real issue - there are no good options, currently. And you said "replaces". I know others want to get away from it, and I don't blame them for various reasons, but not everyone is honest about the history of the US being the most benevolent superpower of all time. And it's not even close. Surfer boy Hendry pointed this out and it was a great point.
    • LS
      L S.
      14 November 2020 @ 16:48
      I just listened to the last part ... I didn't hear them really say anything. Can you clue me in? Capital controls?
    • PS
      Peter S.
      16 November 2020 @ 06:08
      Great point py L.S. re the surfer boy pointing out the us has been a benevolent superpower. It is obviously wrong (ie Western 'elites' sold us to china for cheap is really what happened) but it is designed to get people to think from another angle. That is Hendry's great strength. Regarding the US dollar losing reserve status. That's fine, but I think Brent's main point is what happens to the enormous amount of debt in this currency. That has to be sorted out first before ditching the dollar. That is what he is saying will cause the spike.
  • MW
    Matthew W.
    16 November 2020 @ 06:01
    Classic repression. Superbly articulated
  • JK
    Juan K.
    16 November 2020 @ 04:28
    If we anticipate cap day in any given jurisdiction, should we not first see policy indications of a crack down on cryptocurrency? It seems like the best modern tool to execute capital flight and the supporting infrastructure is increasingly prevalent.
    • PS
      Peter S.
      16 November 2020 @ 05:52
      True, but I would point to what Raul says all the time. Market cap is way to small right now for them to care. Even if Bitcoin went up 10x from here it would not be overwhelming but would probably just enter their radar to start dong something about it.
  • RH
    Ron H.
    14 November 2020 @ 08:17
    This is a very thought provoking conversation; thank you very much. To highlight one assumption behind the thesis, it all turns on and is dependent on politics. Obviously the Covid response by governments was a new phenomenon of fiscal-monetary cooperation, but will it persist to create a new paradigm? I remain skeptical of making that conceptual leap. Crisis management that fills a one-time gaping economic chasm is a different thing from sustained, predictable, several trillion-sized fiscal policies, whether forced through the banking system by governments or managed directly. Is the European Union really united enough politically to pull such a thing off together? From here in the US, I can say much more confidently that I think this thesis significantly under-appreciates the degree of domestic political dysfunction here. Perhaps it also under-appreciates that the FED seems to have become Pavlov in a general sense--they have trained Congress along with investors. We are already well into a perverse world in which the political donor class actually benefits from a perpetually stagnant economy of low growth, low inflation, low interest rates, and high asset prices. Political obstructionism can be seen as financially prudent in this sense. Economically destructive obstructionism can also, perversely, be seen as a prudent Machiavellian strategy to gain power. Why would any of this wealth and power be relinquished voluntarily? If Congress wanted to, it could have done as much anytime over the past 12 years, during which it was very much needed economically. I appreciate RV's arms-length relationship to politics, and am not trying to open a can of worms here. But nevertheless, the fact remains that this thesis is properly a question of 'political economy', so the politics part is unavoidable. In the same vein, we cannot easily estimate how money supply growth and velocity is transmitted into the real economy without scrutinizing its composition; how the money is actually distributed amongst the population. From the look of things outside the window, far, far too many people are sinking, not rising. And those sinking are the ones with the highest propensity to consume. I would go so far as to say that, by the time Congress eventually realizes how much damage is actually happening and how little ongoing confidence the public may have in them, we may already have reached the point where it would be prudent for 'consumers' to maintain a structurally higher rate of savings. When enough consumers realize this and act on it, unfortunately the whole economic house of cards collapses.
    • DS
      David S.
      14 November 2020 @ 16:00
      Ron H. Thanks for your comment. Well said. DLS
    • AI
      Andras I.
      16 November 2020 @ 02:43
      Europe pulling out a concentrated/coordinated effort in any policy: not until things like a tiny country like Hungary trolling (veto) the $2TR+ EU budget negotiations are possible.
  • ET
    E T.
    16 November 2020 @ 00:34
    An exceptional conversation gentlemen, really good, thank you. Knitting the story is indeed what it is all about. needed.
  • DO
    DIOGO O.
    15 November 2020 @ 12:43
    I urge Real Vision to bring back Russell to talk about 2 subjects: 1) his perspectives of future FINANCIAL REPRESSION MECHANISMS... that may soon be upon us 2) his ideias about investing in this period. Based on his previous interviews and papers, Gold and Value stocks are the preferred alocations... meanwhile bonds are TOXIC WAST MATERIAL....LOL Cheers guys! AWESOME (Watching for the third time on a Sunday Mornig kinda awesome!) LOL A W E S O M E
    • MB
      Michael B.
      15 November 2020 @ 15:05
      I had a hard time drawing any conclusions from what was said other than the dollar may remain stronger than most people think and that we will be robbed at some point. You say he likes value stocks and gold from previous interviews? Thanks
    • LS
      L S.
      15 November 2020 @ 18:28
      That's what I'm saying. They talked about a whole bunch of things without coming to any real conclusion, save for Napier 4% inflation next year. That's informative, though. I didn't understand the last section at all regarding anything meaningful for us. I'm open to anyone explaining it, please, if I'm missing something.
  • KR
    Kelly R.
    13 November 2020 @ 11:43
    ....'Canada has some of the worst metrics in the world.' #Wow Any opinions on the best way to play this? Great interview BTW
    • KR
      Kelly R.
      15 November 2020 @ 16:22
      Brent's belly laugh after Russell mentions how Bad Canada's Debt metrics are....is priceless. #Horrible
  • JE
    John E.
    14 November 2020 @ 23:24
    Swiss Bank, crazy like a fox.
    • LS
      L S.
      15 November 2020 @ 01:57
      Can anyone explain the point of that? Many said that the last 9 minutes was "great" and I got zero out of it.
    • DS
      David S.
      15 November 2020 @ 06:46
      L S. - The Swiss National is owned by individuals, Cantons -Swiss "states", and some Swiss Banks. Shares are traded in Switzerland for about $US 5,000. They had to lower the value of the Swiss Franc vis-a-vis the Euro to keep exports competitive. They manage their FX value by spending Francs outside of Switzerland to balance FX. Mr. Napier said there were other ways they could accomplish this. That is what I understood. DLS
    • WG
      Wade G.
      15 November 2020 @ 15:16
      I think the overriding point was the Swiss Nat'l Bank prints its own money for nothing, uses it to buy $s, and uses them to buy stunning amounts of the best companies in the world, all the while managing their own currency down to something that can compete w/ the lowly Euro (which has enjoyed some relative strength lately vs. the $). If anyone struggles to see clearly the ludicrously criminal nature of fiat monies and the theft they permit among the monied classes, that simple story ought to help. Think about why there is not yet market pressures on the CHF to bring an end to their program of printing CHF for US FANGs; imagine being a buyer of these and caring little whether they were trading at bubble valuations.... because they were essentially free to you. About $120B worth and counting.
  • AV
    Animesh V.
    15 November 2020 @ 14:21
    Test
  • JF
    John F.
    15 November 2020 @ 10:05
    With an increasing proportion of business & property construction lending sitting outside the regulated banks and provided through private credit funds, how does this alter the picture I wonder. Regulation such as Basel 1-3 has effectively forced commercial banks to reduce their lending to business over the last decade. Commercial banks in the US, Europe and some parts of Asia-Pac are therefore ill-equipped from a skill perspective to suddenly ramp-up their lending to business as the most skilled credit analysts are now in private credit funds.
  • PU
    Peter U.
    13 November 2020 @ 16:38
    Russell is one of the best! Brent did a very very good job. I would like to see Napier V Lacy Hunt V Paul McCulley
    • AT
      ALAN T.
      13 November 2020 @ 22:28
      Absolutely!
    • MP
      Matthew P.
      13 November 2020 @ 23:12
      Was thinking exactly the same thing! RV can we please ask Santa for this interview ; )
    • EM
      Eivind M.
      15 November 2020 @ 09:05
      Agreed! Throw in Jeff Snider too to complete the lineup :D
  • MH
    Michael H.
    13 November 2020 @ 19:03
    Mr Napier is one of the smartest, thoughtful guests you have had. I would like to see more quality interviews like this as opposed to more overall content. Frankly some of the guests lately have been very subpar. It is great to have many points of view expressed but some of the guests have no real logic to their positions and amount to much talk and very little substance.
    • DS
      David S.
      15 November 2020 @ 06:58
      I am not sure that there are a lot of people of this caliber out there. DLS
  • nn
    null n.
    14 November 2020 @ 22:05
    Would love to have Steve Van Metre demonstrate some of the facts that Napier mentions. Excellent interview.
    • SV
      Steven V. | Contributor
      14 November 2020 @ 22:12
      And you shall have it! Today I've been working on outlining an explainer video.
    • DS
      David S.
      15 November 2020 @ 06:49
      Listen to the original several times first. It is worth the time. DLS
  • JC
    Jason C.
    15 November 2020 @ 04:27
    I always love Brent's interviews because I gain a better understanding of how the financial system works
  • MD
    M D.
    15 November 2020 @ 03:20
    I wonder what Russell Napier makes of central bank digital currencies and bitcoin. ANy views?
  • MR
    Michael R.
    15 November 2020 @ 01:34
    It is interesting that Russell has the expectation that the velocity of money will explode by next summer. I am skeptical. Some spending, yes. A blowout? No. Manage expectations.
  • MR
    Michael R.
    15 November 2020 @ 01:34
    It is interesting that Russell has the expectation that the velocity of money will explode by next summer. I am skeptical. Some spending, yes. A blowout? No. Manage expectations.
  • TN
    Tim N.
    14 November 2020 @ 10:02
    The fundamental question on whether this will all work out is - does the free market allocate capital better or worse than government/central banks. I thought the collapse of the soviet union had answered that question. We need a Gorbachev equivalent in the Fed or Whitehouse.
    • LS
      L S.
      14 November 2020 @ 14:43
      That's why they dislike some of my comments around here, since I think provocation is deserved for "market" or "macro" or investor types who don't call leftism for what it is. Some even promote it on here! And then get mad when we talk about how awful and murderous it is. You know, the Manhattan do-gooder types who are just adding to the chaos. Pathetic. These guys though (Brent and Russell) are great.
    • DS
      David S.
      14 November 2020 @ 15:41
      TIM N. - The fundamental question is how will individuals and families earn enough money to grow and/or prosper in the new normal? This was answered after WWII for several generations in the US and Europe. I do not know that it can be done again in the new normal after COVID Times. DLS
    • TN
      Tim N.
      15 November 2020 @ 01:21
      Agree David. After the WW2 households carried little debt, there was massive industrialisation and build out of infrastructure, and the demographics were favourable. None of there favourable conditions apply today. Ultimately if our democracy is to survive a debt jubilee/wealth transfer will need to occur.
  • MR
    Michael R.
    15 November 2020 @ 01:11
    Pronounce it Zite-GYST Brent. ;)
  • OA
    Olivier A.
    14 November 2020 @ 22:16
    Fanstastic interview. In the top 5-10 this year on RV, I would say.
  • LC
    Laurent C.
    14 November 2020 @ 13:07
    A masterpiece interview.
    • RA
      Robert A.
      14 November 2020 @ 21:47
      Laurent, 100%.
  • MD
    Matt D.
    13 November 2020 @ 23:53
    Great interview - thanks Brent and Mr Napier. There have been detailed RV interviews in the past discussing inflation, but this one was clear, simple to understand, and made sense. A bit of a worry - Macro Prud. Regulation. Excellent. Enjoyed the Irish accent too. Funny how the Scots take offense. Speaking of Scotsmen, it would be interesting to consider this interview and the interesting ideas of HH recently. Thanks again. Enjoyed this.
    • CJ
      Christopher J.
      14 November 2020 @ 18:49
      northern irish accent but probabaly should be more specific!
  • DB
    David B.
    14 November 2020 @ 18:46
    Brent, excellent interviewing skill on display here. Having read and watched many of Russell's interviews, I think you brought him to greater clarity on his point of view and reasoning. This is one of the most valuable interviews on RV in recent weeks and that is saying a lot given how much outstanding content is coming on RV now.
  • LS
    L S.
    14 November 2020 @ 16:44
    I've said a lot here and love these guys, but it's funny that Russell talks about slowly transferring wealth ("stealing wealth from old people"). It's an odd thing to say without talking about the generational advantages the "old" people had where they stacked the deck in their favor and shut out the young blood. This is, mind you, in a system where old people have been kept alive for a long time and drained wealth from the young and productive, since they are a big voting block. The system is messed up, it's not the fault of boomers per se, they have just been manipulated and can't see past their own interests - to the ruin of the society. That's what big government always brings, and they supported it and the disunity of the USA by electing politicians who abuse them while they suggest they'll keep the promise of "taking care of them" or getting something for nothing as they turn into old children with diapers.
  • MS
    Mark S.
    14 November 2020 @ 16:07
    Good work
  • MC
    Mike C.
    14 November 2020 @ 06:55
    Brent your challenge now is to get Dr Lacy Hunt on asap. Can you do it?
    • LS
      L S.
      14 November 2020 @ 14:44
      I would like a push back too. Lacey is great but like Van Metre, the funny thing is that they are technically right, but my suspicion is that there are very few traders alive that will be able to meaningfully take advantage, protect, or predict how quickly deflation goes to inflation. That's why the only thing that matters is the inflation play (long term, macro boys, right?).
    • DS
      David S.
      14 November 2020 @ 16:07
      L.S. - I agree that the apparent play is from deflation to inflation. Individual trades and timing are everything here. How are you looking at it. Thanks. DLS
  • DS
    David S.
    14 November 2020 @ 00:57
    I certainly agree with all the comments about a great interview. Thanks. The deflation is the result of banks not being able to find creditable loans in the real economy - great early insite. IMO, however, the big banks did contribute to the inflation in the US stock market. When the S&P's P/E comes near to doubling ceteris paribus, that is inflation. It takes double the money to buy the same index. There are other contributors like 401/IRA gaming, thinking down 50% and increasing 15% the quarter after is great, etc. Inflation follows the flow of money. Inflation everywhere is a monetary phenomenon a la the Tulip bubble. I do not think the price of bread keep up with the price of tulips. DLS.
    • LS
      L S.
      14 November 2020 @ 14:47
      Everything is a generational war - it really boils down to this. Once we admit that the western advanced economies were going to have XYZ productivity that dwarfs all others and for history, it really becomes about the boomer consolidation of political power and now the unwillingness to let go of life so that new blood can be productive. The government crowding people out is basically the boomer generation crowding everyone out at all costs. Technology and medical sciences just added to this generational war.
  • MS
    Milkey S.
    14 November 2020 @ 12:53
    Hmmmm....yeah, BUY BITCOIN/BTC & SOME GOLD!!!
  • CW
    Claude W.
    14 November 2020 @ 12:19
    Fantastic video, both Russell and Brent are outstanding. Congrats, need to have these two back in due course.
  • MR
    Marco R.
    14 November 2020 @ 08:13
    Brent and Mike the two new super interviews on RV. Fantastic interview
  • AW
    Andrew W.
    13 November 2020 @ 07:42
    Why would gov't force savers or banks to buy the negative-real-yielding bonds when they can just change the rules allowing the Fed to buy them directly? Or the Fed just keeps doing QE Infinity and gov't forces the bank reserves to be used for targeted lending instead of asset purchases? Or QE scales up and really just becomes debt monetization and the B/S a meaningless number (MMT)? Or the TGA is used as the equivalent of a nationalized bank for social justice lending or student loan refinancing etc? The only certainty is that it ends with the bond fire (and universal fiat deval).
    • LM
      Luke M.
      13 November 2020 @ 08:21
      My interpretation is that this is done, despite it being quite ridiculous, because if it’s the Fed doing it then the market 100% ceases to exist. If you’re mandating local funds do it, at least you can make a weak argument that there’s still a market.
    • AM
      Alonso M.
      13 November 2020 @ 19:32
      Because if you place a frog into a pot of boiling water, it will jump out immediately. But if you place a frog in a pot of warm water and turn the heat up, it will boil to death. We old farts with the fixed incomes are the frogs, and the Government wants to place us all in a giant pot of warm water. They plan to turn up the heat because they think we're too stupid to know what they're doing. What could possibly go wrong?
    • LS
      L S.
      14 November 2020 @ 06:15
      You are too stupid. Actually, you're in on it with them. That's the problem we have in the younger generations, Alonso.
  • LB
    Lars B.
    13 November 2020 @ 10:04
    This will seem offensive, I have nothing against Brent Johnson, but why is the interview not Napier and Hendry ?
    • DO
      DIOGO O.
      13 November 2020 @ 13:17
      I particularly don't like Hugh Hendry as the interviwer...he talks too much his own ideias... Hugh Hendry is best for the ''Expert View'' scene... them only him can talk...LOL
    • PU
      Peter U.
      13 November 2020 @ 16:36
      Napier V Lacy Hunt is the title match!
    • LS
      L S.
      14 November 2020 @ 06:14
      Do you like sweaty tank top interviews all disheveled with top quality guests? I'm surprised he doesn't fart in the interviews at this point.
  • DO
    DIOGO O.
    13 November 2020 @ 11:22
    Superb! I was wating for Napier to come to Real Vision FOR MONTHS !"!! FINALLY!!
    • LS
      L S.
      14 November 2020 @ 06:13
      Werner is the one they really need to get back ... and without that strung out hoodlum interviewing him (though he did do a fine job last time).
  • MB
    Markus B.
    13 November 2020 @ 14:38
    Thought provoking and brilliant. One of the most important interviews this year when it comes to longer term asset allocation. Inflation vs deflation: i would love to see a debate between Russell and Raoul. Can we have an "encore"?
    • LS
      L S.
      14 November 2020 @ 06:12
      I love these guys! Keep ptosis out of it.
  • GA
    Gerald A.
    14 November 2020 @ 03:47
    I cannot remember the last time I learned more in 77 minutes.
  • DT
    David T.
    13 November 2020 @ 22:18
    This interview is in the top 10 of RV interviews, no doubt.
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    13 November 2020 @ 21:20
    Fantastic. Thanks guys.
  • TN
    Tim N.
    13 November 2020 @ 21:20
    Good interview. I think if Governments push the banks to make these loans it will cause temporary inflation but at the cost of a massive misallocation of capital - a significant proportion of the bounce back loans went to fraudsters in the UK. I agree with Raoul's thesis that demographics and technology are very deflationary. Once the inevitable defaults on this misallocated capital start rolling in we will snap back into an even more severe deflationary bust and government debts will be an order of magnitude larger. The system will have to reset preferably in a ordered manner.
  • RC
    Rafael C.
    13 November 2020 @ 20:29
    Congrats! Great interviewer and interviewee.
  • JS
    James S.
    13 November 2020 @ 20:07
    There times where I don't feel like I get much from incrementally listening to real vision videos because either (1) nothing material has dramatically changed in the economy or (2) you are listening to the same people update you on their old thesis. This video was absolutely awesome because (1) I had never listened to Russell Napier before so I was unfamiliar with his perspective and (2) he made an extremely rational, compelling argument for am inflationary outcome. It's the videos like this that you can come back to again and again that make your service worthwhile. Thanks for the hard work guys!
  • JM
    John M.
    13 November 2020 @ 18:26
    I am wondering what information sources Brent has looked at that lead him to conclude Canada has a severe debt service problem?
    • JS
      James S.
      13 November 2020 @ 19:59
      Https://stats.bis.org/srs/table/g3 Debt service ratios of non-financial corporations by country (see Canada).
  • EM
    Emma M.
    13 November 2020 @ 19:36
    My two favorite people :))))
  • RN
    Richard N.
    13 November 2020 @ 16:33
    Great interview, Gents!
  • RN
    Richard N.
    13 November 2020 @ 16:33
    Great interview, Gents!
  • LS
    L S.
    13 November 2020 @ 16:32
    See my post over at Debt Liquidity spiral. I love these guys but I summed up this whole thing there. Thanks to all of them for allowing me to clearly see what's happening, with a guess good enough to do the right thing investment wise.
  • jG
    james G.
    13 November 2020 @ 15:12
    great interview
  • TS
    Theodoros S.
    13 November 2020 @ 14:30
    Such a sharp and intelligent mind.
  • PJ
    Peter J.
    13 November 2020 @ 14:06
    Great interview, up there with my all time favourites. Will be reading the transcript as there was too much detail to take in at one time. Apart from the Irish / Scottish gaff, I thought Brent did an excellent job.
  • TM
    Tommy M.
    13 November 2020 @ 13:57
    Can we get the transcript, please?
  • DO
    DIOGO O.
    13 November 2020 @ 13:18
    I think this is the best interview I ever saw on Real Vision... Russell should come frequently... he has surpassed Lacy Hund...BY FAR
  • MD
    Mark D.
    13 November 2020 @ 12:48
    What was the name of the book (or at least author )briefly discussed coming next year? Thank you!
  • Nv
    Nick v.
    13 November 2020 @ 12:31
    Great interview Just one correction...people are not positioned bearish the Dollar Offshore investors are LONG US ASSETS (Bonds + equities) to the tune of 22 trillion This, far exceeds the tiny, tiny $35bn Dollar futures short and even the massive 13 trillion "the world is short Dollars" number
  • DO
    DIOGO O.
    13 November 2020 @ 12:20
    Brent, regarding E.M. currencies, I think that the ''trasnmission mechanism'' for them is the following: 1) EUA inflacion rises... more dollars ''leak'' to the global economy 2) plus... developed economies restart... 3) the hole of the COMMODITIES complex start to rise in prices... thus increasing the FLUX of dollars to those economies Shouldn't that make a difference in the exchange rates??
  • AW
    Abigail W.
    13 November 2020 @ 12:12
    A great thinker, a really high quality interview!
  • BK
    Bogdan K.
    13 November 2020 @ 11:09
    why does the interviewer talk so much? he takes about a minute to get to the question!
  • PB
    Patrick B.
    13 November 2020 @ 09:41
    Scotsman... What an embarrassment
  • GD
    Gareth D.
    13 November 2020 @ 09:35
    Really good interview! Thank you both
  • EL
    Erik L.
    13 November 2020 @ 08:32
    The best interviews are when the person being interviewed is allowed to speak as much as possible. I’ll leave it at that..
  • MD
    Michael D.
    13 November 2020 @ 07:40
    Can I nominate this man for Fed Chair?
  • PB
    PHILLIP B.
    13 November 2020 @ 07:33
    Wow this is good.