On the Ground in a Crisis

Published on
March 14th, 2020
Duration
49 minutes


On the Ground in a Crisis

The Interview ·
Featuring Giovanni Pozzi

Published on: March 14th, 2020 • Duration: 49 minutes

What’s the impact on the ground from coronavirus in Italy right now? Giovanni Pozzi, managing director at a family office in Italy, joins Real Vision’s Raoul Pal to discuss his first-hand experience during the national shutdown in Italy. Pozzi details the effect he’s witnessed on the health system, the economy, and people’s behavior during the ongoing crisis. Pozzi and Pal break down the knock-on effects that coronavirus and the government’s response will have on the economy, fiscal and monetary policy, and financial markets. Filmed on March 13, 2020 via Skype in the Cayman Islands and Italy.

Comments

Transcript

  • ST
    Simon T.
    24 March 2020 @ 03:05
    Thank you Mr Pozzi and Raoul, great interview, I disagree on gold but agree pretty much with everything that you mentionned
  • MS
    Michael S.
    17 March 2020 @ 04:21
    I guess this is better than a CNN/Fox News interview, just trying to fill 24 hours.
    • ST
      Simon T.
      23 March 2020 @ 12:19
      CNN / CNBC / NBC / CBS / REUTERS / BLOOMBERG is all and the same source more or less - one should listen also to DW, France 24, RT, Al Jazeera and of course alternative media’s over the internet including Real Vision of course
  • WM
    Will M.
    16 March 2020 @ 21:07
    Good discussion. On the US, I think Trump's press conference today finally began to start telling the truth and messaging the facts without panicking. this was the first US administration press conference I have seen that had me not glaring at the screen. I think the US is now out of first gear at last.
    • DZ
      Dongbin Z.
      16 March 2020 @ 21:59
      Now I am curious. I always find Trump credible when I watch him -- including his TV address last week. Yet when I dig deeper to what he says, something essential is always opposite to the truth -- including his TV address last week. I haven't seen his Mar 16 news conference. But his Mar 13 news conference included a propaganda element as he always does. And with PBS for example, with people normally quite neutral and with medical experts, they jump on to question him right away as if Trump does not deserve any trust. (And perhaps he doesn't. He is not my president. I don't follow it enough.) Do you still believe him?
    • DR
      David R.
      22 March 2020 @ 18:25
      The explanation is that Mr Trump is a master liar and I'm not being facetious. Mr Trump is a diagnosed sociopath. And sociopaths are masterful at lying to your face.
  • BP
    Barry P.
    19 March 2020 @ 03:17
    Awesome, thanks
  • SF
    Scott F.
    19 March 2020 @ 01:27
    Another great video! Thanks Raoul!
  • TA
    Tobias A.
    15 March 2020 @ 11:14
    Hate to spoil the summer narrative, its spreading pretty wildly here in Australia now
    • CS
      Christian S.
      15 March 2020 @ 15:03
      Really? Damn. I just wanted to extend my vacation in the south for two months before returning to Europe. Sounded too good to be true anyway
    • JL
      James L.
      18 March 2020 @ 11:14
      calm down chicken little
    • JL
      James L.
      18 March 2020 @ 11:15
      major over exaggeration
  • CS
    Christian S.
    15 March 2020 @ 14:53
    As a European I am more concerned about the U.S. than about our countries. With no preparation even until today, a highly incompetent government in charge, people who can't afford a hospital, no trust in government mixed with millions of guns this can become REALLY ugly
    • DS
      David S.
      15 March 2020 @ 16:54
      The Coronavirus may help to pull us together. The US was pulled apart by polarizing rhetoric without substance. The challenge of the Coronavirus is real. Like Lincoln let's move forward working and hoping for the best. DLS
    • NR
      Nathan R.
      15 March 2020 @ 20:37
      One of the reasons, among others, that we possess those guns is how European governments treated their “subjects” over centuries. That history of dismissal, arrogance and subjugation was quite the impetus for our Founders to put a little fear in any government that became....hubristic. Despite what many Europeans think, we are not hayseed, gun-toting psychopaths flinging our 10-ton SUVs to and from Wal-Mart blazing away at any who look sideways at us. We’ll be fine. We have Medicare and Medicaid....despite media heavy breathing, most people can get care if necessary. The real problem is that we’re all a bit light on hospital bed capacity across the Western world. It will be ugly regardless, but it will get solved.
    • JA
      Jesse A.
      16 March 2020 @ 00:16
      Yeah it's weird to sit here in Seattle and wait to see what happens, seems like not a whole lot yet, but schools are shut down and everyone in tech is working from home and we're all stocked up on toilet paper and bleach hah! The reported cases seem to be rising very slowly (currently at something like 500) but of course the exponential is not intuitive. Guess the real test will come in a week or two.
    • JL
      James L.
      18 March 2020 @ 11:13
      like your euro govt is competent. lol. sounds like youre just wanting to say, my place is better than your place. right? i wouldn't agree, and i'm not even American.
  • TZ
    Tibor Z.
    15 March 2020 @ 01:47
    OFF : Where is Grant Willams?
    • PG
      Pinchas G.
      15 March 2020 @ 03:36
      We need at least a hello. PLEASE!!!
    • MC
      Minum C.
      15 March 2020 @ 14:20
      This is one of those that makes me go Hmmm.
    • MS
      Michael S.
      17 March 2020 @ 04:18
      Raoul did his Godfather power play and had him whacked.
  • ig
    ian g.
    17 March 2020 @ 03:46
    https://dailyhodl.com/2020/03/16/us-treasury-secretary-steven-mnuchin-appoints-coinbase-chief-legal-officer-to-oversee-banking-system/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
  • JG
    Johan G.
    14 March 2020 @ 22:42
    Thanks to Raoul and Giovanni! Sobering and straight to the point. I watched this very interesting analysis of how the Covid-19 epidemic develops in a population. Look it up at: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca One of the main takeaways is that the mortality rate greatly depends on how early authorities start the quarantine/social distancing policy, and how efficient it is. Early start and efficient implementation caps mortality at 0,5-1%, but late start and/or inefficient implementation gives a mortality rate of 3-5%! The main factor in this difference seems to be the capacity of the health care system compared to the total number of people needing hospital/intensive care. When capacity is exceeded, mortality rate shoots up! I doubt that demographics will help the US measurably. Good luck to all, I am quarantined but still in good health, and our country(Norway) is going into lock down this weekend. I hope we did in time....
    • DS
      David S.
      15 March 2020 @ 03:57
      The best of luck to you and all your friends an family. This will pass, but people who cared about each other will remember. DLS
    • DZ
      Dongbin Z.
      16 March 2020 @ 22:31
      Beware that mortality rate is dependent on the denominator -- ie. no. confirmed cases -- which is in turn dependent on testing regime. South Korea having 0.6% mortality rate doesn't mean South Korean authorities did a good job in enough of itself. 0.6%, however, is as close to a "natural" death rate as we are going to get for COVID-19. Since 1) South Korea seems to have used their medical and other resources as well as they can; 2) they test as widely as they can. @Johan: Hope you recover soon!
  • WM
    W M.
    14 March 2020 @ 13:39
    Raoul, in the video you mention the need for people to get infected, but slowly, to establish herd immunity. That's an interesting assumption. I don't know much about this, but from what I've been reading, there are documented cases of re-infection, and there is no acquired immunity for some other, similar corona viruses. That there would be herd immunity with this virus seems to be an open question that is yet to be answered. Can anyone point to data on this question?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      14 March 2020 @ 13:50
      Agreed. It is not easy... but allowing for vaccines plus better treatments and then we can allow for better herd immunity over time but we are a long way from all of that.
    • SS
      Steven S.
      15 March 2020 @ 01:58
      I'm not a virologist nor an immunologist, but my understanding is that healthy adaptive immune systems in humans make memory CD8+ T-cells to at least some, if not all, coronaviruses. I would be concerned that "re-infection" is a bacterial secondary infection or someone with a compromised immune system who has difficulty clearing the virus. Perhaps if there's a virologist or immunologist here, they can verify.
    • DZ
      Dongbin Z.
      16 March 2020 @ 22:19
      Indeed COVID-19 kills indirectly through acute respiratory distress syndrome. As with any virus, us as a community would be surprised to find re-infection due to the way our immune system works. There has been very few cases of re-infection and there is always complicated nuances that can produce a seemingly contradictory one-off example without really invalidating the whole theory. I recommend YT channel MedCram if you want opinion from experts who's been giving daily update on COVID-19. You can use the references listed there to read more.
  • SS
    Steven S.
    15 March 2020 @ 03:47
    We don't *need* herd immunity from actual SARS-CoV-2 infection (although it appears as though this will occur). We simply need an effective vaccine. We don't currently have herd immunity from tetanus infection, we have widespread immunity due to vaccination. I don't think there's any evidence of fluctuations in transmission rates with weather. There's one paper that I'm aware of that calculates a maximum transmission rate at roughly 9 C. But, we have no idea how the summer will impact the situation.
    • SS
      Steven S.
      15 March 2020 @ 06:05
      Just to clarify, my first point is that the preferred mechanism for herd immunity is through vaccination, not getting the populace sick with SARS-CoV-2 en masse. Both will generate herd immunity, one will do so without casualties.
    • DZ
      Dongbin Z.
      16 March 2020 @ 22:09
      No. There is no indication weather will help. COVID-19 virus does not stay viable in the environments to begin with and it manages to be as contagious as it is despite of. Steve S.'s comment does not deserve ANY downvote. People, please: Be clear with what you don't know within yourself. For those wishing for real information, I suggest start with this WHO report: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf
  • BM
    Beth M.
    14 March 2020 @ 18:20
    I completely disagree with the comments that America has responded too slowly to the coronavirus for the following reasons...America is the financial engine that drives the world. America has been that engine for many decades...that's the fact, not wishful thinking. The thought that we (Americans) just stop and quarantine our nation is a huge siren going off...and I would say met with disbelief initially. At first when you hear the siren you don't give it the urgency that it may require. Remember that we are hearing that the virus primarily impacts the elderly and those with immune deficiencies. So there is a lag in most people's thinking...the thinking is that we are going to move forward and get through this. Then it comes to the door step and reality sets in. Our response was virtually no different from any other nation. The school systems have shut down across America now. Proper action is being taken. Remember non of this comes easy as decisions go. Be careful who you blame. My question is China...why do these diseases continue to come from communist China. Why do the Chinese officials act like thugs towards their people...over and over and over again?! What were the Chinese up to in Wuhan in this bio-chemical lab...the only one in their nation? And our Italian friend's view on gold is much more a Millennial thinking...us Baby Boomers know gold will be that last currency standing.
    • AP
      Adam P.
      14 March 2020 @ 22:25
      This comment is extremely closed minded. Hopefully one day you have a reality check that doesn’t cost you in a drastic way.
    • CB
      Clifford B.
      14 March 2020 @ 23:31
      Wow. America is the engine that drives the world? America quietly and covertly takes what it wants to support Merica.
    • SS
      Steven S.
      15 March 2020 @ 02:04
      Just to clarify: this virus did not originate within a "bio-chemical lab." SARS-CoV-2 has very high sequence identity to one of the bat coronavirus strains. There is absolutely no evidence that this was created in a lab and plenty of evidence that it was a zoonotic event. Open markets in Wuhan sell bats and many other "bush meat" animals for human consumption. And, by the way, this has been a massive US public health failure on numerous levels.
    • PC
      Peter C.
      15 March 2020 @ 06:50
      Beth, your hubris & hypocrisy amaze eg. "Be careful who you blame. My question is China...why do these diseases continue to come from communist China. Why do the Chinese officials act like thugs towards their people...over and over and over again?! What were the Chinese up to in Wuhan in this bio-chemical lab...the only one in their nation?" We should all learn from our predecessors and role models in this Pandemic like South Korea, Singapore,... We should help our fellow man when possible like China has done for 3 countries, latest being Italy - yesterday, a Chinese Red Cross plane filled with 30 tons of medical equipment and nine medical staff with experience battling the disease arrived in Italy
    • BM
      Beth M.
      15 March 2020 @ 16:10
      Adam P. keep your ears closed and don't listen to the truth...that will cause your reality check or you can just keep drinking the "cool aid". And Peter C. why do the Chinese act like thugs towards their own people = communism. And why did they shut out teams of international scientists trying to help? Oh yeah, it all came from a bat in the open market...that's been proven wrong six ways to Sunday. Interesting that their only bio-chemical lab is Wuhan. Time to get to the truth...instead of listening to snow flakes. Kyle Bass knows the truth and has been on RV many times. Take his lead and don't bury your head in the sand. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/jan/24/virus-hit-wuhan-has-two-laboratories-linked-chines/
    • WM
      Will M.
      16 March 2020 @ 21:02
      Sorry Beth, I will have to disagree from Texas. I was reading crisp clear input from Dr John Campbell in the UK and Chris Martenson of Peak Prosperity. Both were way ahead of authorities is warning this was clearly a pandemic to be worried about. As a result of listening to their council I was fully prepared 2 weeks ago. They have both given ample example of how the US (and others) dropped this ball. The US failed miserably on the issue of testing (primarily a CDC issue) and we are just about to see the results. As is clear from Trumps speech tonight (March 16th) the truth is only now starting to materialize. Wherever you are Beth stay safe....and wear an N95 mask.
    • DZ
      Dongbin Z.
      16 March 2020 @ 22:02
      Well, thank you for sharing your real thoughts.
  • WC
    Wilson C.
    16 March 2020 @ 11:11
    RV, thanks for the interview, I enjoy hearing 1st hand experience from people on the ground. I think it would have been as insightful if you have done similar with on ground interviews from China (Shanghai or Beijing, even from ground zero in Wuhan) or Hong Kong (GaveKal?). I echo Petros C comment below re: China, I think most people don't understand how this crisis has brought the country together, and the selfless actions that's going on (understandable given the mainstream anti-China mentality exemplified by Beth M's comment below). What China has mobilized in the fight against coronavirus is impressive and innovative, Dr. Bruce Aylward (WHO team leader to visit China in Feb) article in the NY Times is a good read https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/health/coronavirus-china-aylward.html In particular, thousands of volunteers (serious, not forced) going into Wuhan to help, The community spirit is strong, here's one video showing people's supporting each other (they are saying "add oil" which is a chinese expression of keep going, don't give up... https://youtu.be/t_PSSTP8ROg like this video of Italians singing together, https://youtu.be/nNxhSe4TiOQ or nurses cutting their long hair (personal sacrifices), https://youtu.be/Lzk7-Kw-K4w or how quick China is using technology, like temperature scanning police helmets, https://youtu.be/WXULTL91Qwg all videos from SCMP (HK) website news. Here in Hong Kong, we've managed to avoid an outbreak (Singapore has more cases than HK :-) probably because we went through SARS years ago, and activated all those protocols (like where we live, plastic films over the elevator buttons, wipe downs of doors, lifts every hour or even more frequent). Besides the toilet paper and rice runs (btw, all back in stock 7 days after the craziness), all good. Unfortunately, this time we were not as helpful to our fellow people in China as they helped us during SARS, although there were a few HK'ers who went to Wuhan to help.
    • PC
      Petros C.
      16 March 2020 @ 16:37
      Wilson, thanks for the vote of confidence. I can’t wait to visit HK as soon as travel restrictions are lifted. I read stories about Chinese getting attacked verbally or physically all around the world these days, but in the mainland foreigners (laowai) are being treated as equal during times of extreme hardship and strained resources. I had to visit a local hospital for an overdue blood test & prescription refill. It was obvious that the hospital was understaffed as most experienced doctors were sent in the front lines. Nevertheless, nurses were considerate and I believe that I received the same attention as Chinese citizens. What amazes me is automation in mainland hospitals. Waiting times are minimal. There were no food or paper shortages in Hainan. The only item I am still waiting to receive from Shenzhen is a 4K action camera with stabilization :-) Finally, I heard that several new policies are planned for Hainan. It may emerge as a new regional financial center (offshore?) .
  • SG
    Sashi G.
    16 March 2020 @ 16:03
    I would agree that not just the US and UK but many countries took this too lightly and lost the early window to get ahead of the pandemic. When China locked down entire cities/provinces, that should have been the warning that something different is going on this time and efforts should have been made by other countries to work with the Chinese to gain their knowledge and experience. Instead it seemed to be treated as a Chinese problem, then perhaps as Asia problem. Then when the disease hit South Korea, Iran and Italy - that was the second warning but even then precious weeks were lost. The US detected the first case over 7 weeks ago. I cannot understand how they could have been complacent after that. No country is isolated for long any more.
  • JH
    Jason H.
    14 March 2020 @ 22:28
    Obesity is a critical factor in mortality. The USA is younger but? They have a BIG problem.
    • AS
      Ahmed S.
      16 March 2020 @ 06:36
      Yup, lots of high blood pressure and diabetes issues here in the US. I’d expect the mortality rate to be higher because of that compared to South Korea or Italy.
  • gk
    garrison k.
    15 March 2020 @ 02:37
    A Home Run ... Keep comin' up to bat with folks like Giovanni ... and bring him back regularly for updates ... Journey On ... Raoul & Company ... Journey On ... regards, gk
    • AC
      Andrew C.
      16 March 2020 @ 04:57
      Did someone say ‘bat’? Too soon!
  • CT
    Crispim T.
    16 March 2020 @ 00:46
    Give it time. Bitcoin (BTC) will rise once all this trash is burned. At least toilet paper is no longer needed after the latest Fed announcement.
  • ra
    rehan a.
    15 March 2020 @ 12:05
    What is up with Raouls background??
  • XP
    X P.
    15 March 2020 @ 11:24
    Hi Raoul. Please do Spain next! Government refusing to lock Madrid down even after emergency declaration. They’d rather have the whole country go under before locking Madrid. Utter irresponsibility! Catalonia and other regions / municipalities self confining. Massive percentage of gdp related to tourism just gone in a flash and they’ve just banned short selling. A real shitshow...
  • JO
    Johnny O.
    14 March 2020 @ 11:38
    Best call was Raoul for the continuation and indeed parabolic spike of the Bonds. ZROZ, TLT calls, /GE calls. Is that over now, following its parabolic blow-off? Gold was doing ok, in the early part of this chaos, although there was some warning when silver totally failed to join the party. But when equities started liquidating bigtime, rather than just "correcting", gold went south. The Robert Prechter view has always been that gold is just another asset that will lose value in the deflationary phase when people are selling everything. In that second accclerating leg of equities down, we saw gold went south while USD beat all other currencies. Under this framework, gold will have its day when all currencies fail and it's hyper-inflation time. On the other hand, I'm getting emails from BullionStar telling me that physical metal supply is strained and the physical and paper prices may come unstuck.
    • DS
      David S.
      14 March 2020 @ 19:00
      In addition to the general market selloff, I think gold went down to generate cash on margin calls. It did not go down as fast as the stock market, so a source of cash. Concerning your emails, all good marketing emails should generate a sense of urgency to act. DLS
    • JO
      Johnny O.
      15 March 2020 @ 09:23
      Biggest disappointment (no doubt cheered by many RV commenters) was bitcoin. This 50% collapse was not the Halving we were looking for! Totally failed, spectacularly failed, as a non-correlated financial system hedge. Let's be honest and admit that enthusiasm for it over the years has been roughly correlated with major S&P 500 waves. I'm as anti-debt-based-fiat, end-the Fed as anyone, and I think you must own a piece of the only speculative asset that can run from $3k to $13k in a few weeks. But the "digital gold", "red pill", "buck the system", "new money" themes have taken a beating. After its Thursday performance, Scott Adams tweeted that bitcoin will never be viewed the same.
  • ag
    amin g.
    14 March 2020 @ 08:14
    On the subject of temperature, keep an eye on my country ..India. We get 35C in most of the country by next week and I'm crossing my fingers that the temperature wish comes true. Most of the people in mumbai including members of my family are not self isolating and i can't begin to explain the cultural behaviour that comes into play. If the oldest member of the family ( the most vunerable) pushes back, its like banging your head on the wall to try to explain the severity of this virus and the importance of the fact that being "paranoid " can actually help. Stay safe everyone and open your hearts and mind. Thanks Raoul to you and all your guest speakers.
    • DS
      David S.
      15 March 2020 @ 07:47
      Thank you for you help in furthering the conversation. DLS
  • ag
    amin g.
    14 March 2020 @ 08:18
    Reduce the size of your positions cause the price movements are large enough to make money . Thats a great point . And reminds of of the earlier guests on RV that mention position size as such an important factor to making sure that if your trading/investment thesis is wrong, you still stay solvent and don't get wiped out in times like this
    • DS
      David S.
      15 March 2020 @ 07:45
      Sizing is what separated many investors from the professionalls. DLS
  • HS
    Hernádi S.
    14 March 2020 @ 13:07
    Well, Australia is blowing up, and seems to be community spread. I guess that really does not validate the virus going away in warm weather (Egypt also is not in the "yellow" belt).
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      14 March 2020 @ 13:51
      Agreed. There are a lot o assumptions in the seasonality argument.
    • HH
      Henry H.
      14 March 2020 @ 21:01
      All the more important for people to study how Hong Kong (community effort), Taiwan (leverage its excellent healthcare infrastructure and use data analytics) and Singapore (strict quarantine) combat COVID-19.
    • AP
      Adam P.
      14 March 2020 @ 22:29
      I reside in Australia. It’s exceeding in growth due to the inaction of government. They announced a ban on large group gatherings on Friday but doesn’t go into effect on Monday so the PM can go to his sports and church events. Selfishness will be the downfall of Australian’s way of life.
    • DS
      David S.
      15 March 2020 @ 07:38
      Australians are fantastic, but leaders are still human DLS
  • NL
    Nicholas L.
    15 March 2020 @ 07:34
    Thank you for this true insight.. It will be interesting to see how each country copes.
  • PC
    Petros C.
    14 March 2020 @ 18:58
    Mr. Giovanni Pozzi, I wish Italian people a swift recovery from the pandemic. I pray for a miracle, as several of my friends and family members live in Europe and may face hard times ahead. To be honest, I have been watching in disbelief how European & north America governments handled the pandemic crisis during the last 6 weeks compared to the isolation measures taken by the Chinese government, which so far have been proven to be highly effective! For those who haven’t visited Asia before, please note that infrared cameras measuring body temperature are permanent fixtures at Hong Kong & Shanghai Pudong airport arrivals. In early January, I landed in Sanya, a sun-kissed city in the tropical island of Hainan (P.R.China), which is touted as the oriental Hawaii. After the quarantine was announced, I was obliged to live in lock-down inside a 40-acre gated development. My second option would have been to contact a European Consular and request evacuation to my domicile country. Under the latter scenario, I would had to spend 2 weeks in isolation inside a hospital ward with negative pressure. I am not a big fan of public hospital food, so I opted to ride the storm, like Raoul does, under palm trees while dining in tropical fish & fruits. I can talk about my experience for hours & days, if that may help my fellow Europeans learn something from the Chinese experiment. Here are some brief notes: [1] I had to wear a mask outside my flat. During the early days of the quarantine (when masks were out of stock and more precious than bitcoins), Chinese police came to our development and provided one free mask per person. I declined the offer, as I always carry a box of 3M FFP3 respirators during my trips to Hong Kong & mainland China. [2] Exit from the development was strongly not recommended, but it was allowed once per 2 days. Streets that were supposed to have bumper to bumper traffic during the Chinese New Year were deserted like a scene from a Steven King movie. [3] I had to comply with contactless body temperature measurement while entering our development, during package collection and while entering shops e.g. supermarkets, pharmacies. [4] I went for food shopping only once in late January. After that, fresh vegetables, fruits, fish and various other supermarket items were delivered to the development entrance. We did not have contact with the delivery personnel. At the peak of the epidemic, when little was known about virus’ transmissibility, cartoon boxes were sprayed with disinfectant before collection. [5] These strict measures were gradually relaxed after a week without new cases in Hainan island. Don’t hold your breath about the effectiveness of heat & humidity: just a handful of elderly tourists traced directly to Wuhan brought the virus in tropical Hainan (80-90% humidity) and it spread like a wildfire, before the quarantine. The pandemic has brought a major disruption to the tourist industry. All hotels, including the stunning Sanya Atlantis, are closed pending further notice. The 2020 Sanya E-Prix has been postponed etc Food for thought: A brand new isolation hospital is being built in Sanya (population 700K) and I guess every other metropolitan city in China will get at least one. Are Chinese bracing for a prolonged fight with the virus? I think today was the first day that there were more new cases from abroad than domestic. I am not a day trader and in any case I cannot trade intra-day from Asia due to latency issues and platform disruptions during periods of extreme volatility. My personal view is that there would be NO V-shape recovery, so I recommend extreme caution for anyone buying and holding the dips. I have placed small bets on the doom-loop scenario Raoul has been advocating for months, I hold some physical gold and lots of cash in EUR & USD. I am entirely lost when it comes to predicting USD vs major currencies, so any future help from RV will be appreciated. Stay healthy! Anything else comes second.
    • DS
      David S.
      15 March 2020 @ 04:15
      Thank you for an important on the spot recount of your experience. Many who have absolutely no experience tell everyone what is going on. Thanks again. DLS
  • PV
    Peter V.
    14 March 2020 @ 22:14
    Great to hear from Italy. But as an investor he seems quite naive..
    • DS
      David S.
      15 March 2020 @ 04:06
      Who is naive? He is just following Lincoln's good advice of be positive and move forward. DLS
  • LK
    Lauri K.
    14 March 2020 @ 22:32
    I think one of the biggest mistakes has been to not inform people earlier of the actions. The better way to deal with this would have been to declare & announce the measures way beforehand. For example: If cases reach a certain threshold, all events over 500 people will be cancelled. Now, this very late reaction and sudden drastic measures has let the virus spread and caused unnecessary panic.
    • DS
      David S.
      15 March 2020 @ 04:02
      Unfortunately it is not a thing until it is. Doctors reacted quickly, but others were just worried about their own self interest. Mr. Pal was early and helped all of us understand the gravity of the situation DLS
  • GS
    Gurpreet S.
    15 March 2020 @ 02:37
    Can't cast to my Chromecast anymore :(
  • SS
    Steven S.
    15 March 2020 @ 01:51
    Current thinking in the medical community (note that there are many uncertainties and these points may change): 1) perhaps 20-60% will be infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the US, 2) disease activity until at least May in the US, 3) US mortality rate estimated to be between 1-3%, and 4) healthcare infrastructure poorly prepared from testing all the way to ventilation/ICU care.
  • JS
    Jan S.
    15 March 2020 @ 01:43
    homeboy on the intro needs to turn it down a notch lol
  • AK
    Alexander K.
    14 March 2020 @ 23:07
    Really well balanced interview - thank you Raoul, In fact, i will sleep better tonight having listened to Giovanni. Well done Real Vision.
  • JD
    John D.
    14 March 2020 @ 22:39
    RP looks like he's Matthew Mcconaughey behind the bookshelf in Interstellar.
  • jr
    john r.
    14 March 2020 @ 22:37
    Bravo Givoanni, thanks for putting this in perspective that it's NOT war, its great to see that you are handling it the way everyone should, great update. Thank you
  • F
    Floyd .
    14 March 2020 @ 22:23
    Outstanding....a pragmatic and realistic view on a variety of subjects. This was a bit of a contrast to many less optimistic views including Raoul's. This interview gave us a further sense of what to watch for and a few possible ways to position ourselves both personally and financially . Well done.
  • sw
    stefan w.
    14 March 2020 @ 15:06
    Giovanni stay safe and best wishes to you and your loved ones. Thank you. I must say however that I think you're being incredibly conciliatory and forgiving to your political leaders. Wouldn't pandemic risk be a top 3 or 4 risk that your Minister of Health should be prepared for? This person was presumably appointed by your Prime Minister? Where was the health minister for the last 3 months? I don't mean to be picking specifically on Italy here... other than Taiwan and Singapore I can't of any politicians that are showing leadership and preparedeness for this. But astonishing how the specific leaders that should have had this on this radar seem to have been absent-mindedly staring into the sky in December, January and February.
    • DS
      David S.
      14 March 2020 @ 18:41
      Doctors all over the world were out front on this. It was the politicians who completely dropped the ball. DLS
  • SW
    Suzanne W.
    14 March 2020 @ 18:01
    Timely and vital information. Thank you RV! I would like to see more interviews like this.
  • CP
    Cameron P.
    14 March 2020 @ 17:35
    I couldn't think of a better guest to have on just now. And the Skype-styling made is seem like a sincere chat with a friend. So valuable for the Real Vision members. Thanks Raoul & team.
    • CP
      Cameron P.
      14 March 2020 @ 17:35
      And thanks Giovanni!
  • ML
    Mike L.
    14 March 2020 @ 16:12
    The US population is at more risk than people realize due to the general health of the population rather than age. Example: 30 million Americans are diabetic. A further 120 million are prediabetic. That's just one segment of the population at risk. Add to that, that there are only about 1 million hospital beds in the USA, and even less ICU beds. Hopefully I'm wrong but it looks like a dire situation.
  • NN
    Nathan N.
    14 March 2020 @ 10:51
    Great content and guest. One suggestion on the videos (I’m sure it’s been mentioned) - allowing a feature to speed them up by 1.25x, 1.5x or so. It would be helpful for slower pace speakers such as Giovanni.
    • sw
      stefan w.
      14 March 2020 @ 15:08
      I'm able to do this already both on my laptop and on the ios app.
    • NN
      Nathan N.
      14 March 2020 @ 16:11
      Thanks. Didn’t realize there was an app.
  • JO
    Johnny O.
    14 March 2020 @ 09:44
    Is the assertion true that there is an army of Chinese workers in northern Italy producing Made In Italy garments and accessories, some of whom would have visited China at Chinese New Year? Mortality percentage in Italy somewhat explained by aged population but trying to understand the magnitude of initial infection compared to other European countries.
    • JO
      Johnny O.
      14 March 2020 @ 16:05
      OK I just read somewhere that it's 100,000 Chinese workers in Italian factories. Fatality rate in Italy is 6.6%, which reflects the fact that 19% of cases are aged over 80. However, it's also a percentage that can be misleading and dangerous to extrapolate globally. The numerator, deaths, is fairly indisputable (excluding Chinese govt stats), but the denominator of tested cases may vary. Italy has been testing only people with symptoms. Plenty of other people, probably younger, may have carried the virus with no or mild symptoms. Korea, on the other hand, has been testing everyone. There the fatality rate is more like 1%.
  • KA
    Kelly A.
    14 March 2020 @ 16:03
    Thanks for putting the content indicators in the progress bar...really a great time saver.
  • RY
    Roy Y.
    14 March 2020 @ 14:34
    Thank you ... We're rooting for you, Giovanni ... Wishing you a speedy return to 'normality'... All the best ... Viva Italia!
  • HC
    Harley C.
    14 March 2020 @ 06:38
    Thoughtful and informative. Great work, RV! This should be released publicly. Giovanni's experience from within a crisis area may be of use to those in areas where cases are now starting to climb quickly.
    • ER
      Eric R.
      14 March 2020 @ 14:15
      Agree, to this point if you sent me a link I would certainly forward widely even if it required a $1 commitment to view.
  • HS
    Hernádi S.
    14 March 2020 @ 14:08
    Why would money go back to the stock market with earnins obviously falling? Why would America be better off with opiate addicts and obese population? Where is the evidence of warm weather even slowing this thing down, let alone stop it? Australia being in deep shit, much of the conclusions here are on shaky grounds...
  • NR
    Nathan R.
    14 March 2020 @ 12:57
    Thoroughly engrossing. Thanks to both of you for taking time to address the granular experience and then rolling the piece out in a timely and professional manner. RV is so very unique and valuable and a this segment is the proof.
  • PZ
    Petr Z.
    14 March 2020 @ 10:41
    One of the least intererting video in a long time....
  • BD
    Ben D.
    14 March 2020 @ 10:15
    Great to see that RV is able to prioritize the quality of the information and the timely delivery of that information over having a formal structured interview when needed. (I'm sorry Raul, I laughed a bit when I first saw you in this interview). Having these interviews along with the whole REPO series of interviews about a month ago is in my opinion just as good as a regular interview when done correctly. An important takeaway from the virus is just how badly people understand statistics and events (large and deceivingly small) as a .2% fatality rate will not randomly kill 2 people out of 1000 but will leave the 2 weakest immune systems/health systems out of the 1000 at the highest risk at a disproportionate rate. Human physiology just isnt a good quantifier of risk and probabilities. If Real Vision or others sees this, I would be interested to know what the thoughts are on a deflationary impact overall. Especially to the highly indebted.
  • MA
    Martin A.
    14 March 2020 @ 09:02
    Thank you.