“Pricking” Potential Bubbles in Stocks and Bonds

The Interview ·
Featuring John Hussman and Milton Berg

Published on: February 23rd, 2021 • Duration: 90 minutes

Are stocks in a bubble? How about bonds? Perhaps Bitcoin, too? Milton Berg, founder and CIO of Milton Berg Advisory, welcomes John Hussman, president of Hussman Strategic Advisors, for a conversation on these important questions. Hussman uses his custom equity risk-premium model to explain why, over the next twelve years, he expects the S&P 500 to return an average of negative 4%. Hussman compares the current moment to various historical periods where the S&P 500 underperformed Treasurys. Berg contends that peak-to-trough declines in equities will always result in long periods during which equities underperform Treasurys, and he notes that even buying high-quality stocks at peaks will turn a healthy profit if an investor have a sufficiently long time-horizon. Berg expounds on a bevy of highly favorable market technicals that indicate this rally could continue for some time. Filmed on February 19, 2021.

Key learnings:
Hussman argues that the S&P 500 will have a negative return for the next 12 years, whereas Berg maintains that, “bubble” or not, this rally will likely continue, both because the Federal Reserve is not worried about inflation as well several key market technical indicators. Hussman and Berg agree that speculative fervor is very notable in Bitcoin, but note that this does not mean it will go down soon.