Glad you enjoyed it!

Thanks Lorenzo, so glad you enjoyed, wish I could take some of the credit

Well I guess you should indeed. Russell might be doing a lot of the heavy lifting, but you're steering the discussion wheel impeccably, with not a bit of fuzzy digression

I presume the Real Vision guests come on for free. Surely their book on the bookshelf and one or two snippets on it is a fair return for them? Note that the Real Vision Pro membership of about $900 pa is about what it costs to speak to one of these guys per hour... All in all, I think it's pretty good value, and petty to be slagging them off for having their book on the shelf

@Patrick B Well, 1 copy, yeh might have let that pass. 2 positioned completely differently to all others - lame. Just tell me if you got a book to sell and tell me about it. 'want to watch a video that will change your life?' 'Want some RV merchandise for free?' First 2 things i was faced with on logging in ... bucket shop stuff ... always sell, sell, sell. If it's so good it wouldn't need the pushing ;) You *presume* the guests/interviewers come on for free, but if their real motive is to push an unspecified product/agenda, it ain't really free is it? Just another venue to promote views to a paying audience who could get most of it for free elsewhere. Would be very wary about trusting that ... As I said, didnt expect this to be a popular post, just disappointed with the way RV turned out, had high hopes a few years ago :/ So, a bit deeper stuff than just 'petty' going on here, but your obviously free to view it that way ;)

Nic T Your comment is so ridiculous and childish (on multiple levels), it is nearly beyond. belief. You Bruce Wayne level detective you! Wow, you are so clever, you "thought it was odd, so [you] checked it out"!? What an impressive high level smarty pants you are. Your wondering monkey mind couldn't stay focused on what was being discussed and you put in squint eyed effort to look through the sub par visual quality of Stephen's feed and type in what appears to be the title in the background behind him and then you found out the evil scheme-gasp!- that it was Stephen Clapham's own book! Da-Da-Daaa!!! So goddamn what?! Stephen Clapham is a goddamn Warrior. He had to reinvent himself in the market place after he had seemingly reached the end of employability. And he took his skills and his energy and went into business for himself and became successfully self employed. I remember this (hopefully mostly accurately) from his first RV interview. It isn't "product placement". It's his OWN book, in his own house, in his own room where he does his computer calls from. If we were watching a Grant Cardone interview, Grant would have mentioned or displayed one of his books a dozen times during the interview, absolutely nothing wrong with it. Is it "product placement" if Robert Greene has The 48 Laws of Power behind him in his OWN home as he does a zoom interview? These people are in their own space showing product of their own making pertaining to the very business that they are in and known for and being interviewed for. Get your head out of your backside man! Actual product placement is cutting a deal with Pepsi to show the "heart throb" actor of the moment gratuitously drinking it. Dude, this isn't a cheap movie, this is real life. Russel Napier has written books. Stephen Clapham has written a book(s). Many in the RV audience are lacking in finance education (myself included). Clapham has his books behind him? I never would have known if not for your stupid comment. Did you notice how the interview went in to stock picking? That is what Clapham's book is about, it would probably benefit me to read it. Nic, are you an expert stock picker? Are you super skilled at doing that? Are you beyond any need to read something like Clapham's book? I'm not. I'm in need of learning when it comes to stock picking. Hey Nic, business men promote there own product. Were you born yesterday and didn't know that. Business' promote their own product. Were you born yesterday and didn't know that? Potential customers have needs to fulfill and can't do that if they don't know that the product that fits with them exists. They only know that the product exists if the business promotes it. Were you born yesterday and didn't know that? By the way Nic, due to your dumb comment, I did some google searching of my own and I now know that Stephen Clapham also has a course on Udemy. I just might take the course. Thank you for bringing him another customer! You, of course won't need to take it though, either because you're excellent at stock selection or you're excellent at finding what is in Clapham's course elsewhere, "on various sites free online". *Vomit* The one thing I agree with you on is that I get pissed when I see an RV video go up to their free YT channel. But, again this simply speaks to the promotion that a business MUST do to increase it's customer base and increase revenue. We live in the REAL WORLD, not the private fantasy utopia that each of us carries around in our own personal wishful mind. Would I prefer that RV go out of business, because they didn't promote on YT and elsewhere? Of course not. Anyway, Nic T., you're a man of your word aren't you? When does your sub run out that you say you will not renew? I want to know from what point forward I can look forward to not seeing your comments. Thanks!

@Andre You put so much effort into that, I had to give you an upvote Have a nice day, and thank you you for starting my day with a good laugh :)

Quality chat Andre F! Steve Clapham is an absolute legend

Actually, there are 3 books on my bookshelf - depends on how I am sitting. But you will be pleased to know that I have turned my desk round. I think you realise that neither Russell nor I received any payment. Russell is now making his newsletter available to private investors and I sell online courses (and a book). If you don't like that, by all means go on YouTube. You get what you pay for.

I just read some of the replies - thanks for the kind words. Really appreciate your support.

Hey Nic, a wise man once said: "Its better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open your mouth and remove all doubt". To Russell and Stephen great interview I will be watching this one more than once!

thanks Antonio - we are good friends so we don't indulge in pleasantries.

thanks Benji

thanks Jesse

cheers John, easy when you are talking to someone with Russell's intellect tbh

thanks Diana. glad you enjoyed

That's my fault - I avoid crypto just like Tesla, opens a can of worms and a never-ending chain of abuse from both sides

It isn't for entertainment my friend. It sounds like a very serious warning.

thanks Ian, appreciate it but it was really all Russell

Yeah, seriously. He seems to have a lot of faith in his own speculation that this is a continuing framework. I'm not sure he understands the culture of american commercial banks. The idea that the Fed is going to tell them where to lend or that the government is going to guarantee all green energy loans is fairly absurd. The government already does that with the agencies and all they did was crowd out banks. Furthermore he completely ignores how our overindebtedness renders fiscal policy impotent. Once again no one actually addresses Lacy Hunt's fundamental thesis.

I think if you look at the BIS data it's very clear

My guess is that there is simply too much to cover in 60 mins. Given the time they had, I am glad they stuck to economics and finance.

thanks Paolo - we could have gone on but these interviews are quite intense and I felt we had covered enough ground - perhaps we should do a return match

Cheers Tim

Hey Marc, thanks for those kind words. Russell is indeed an amazing thinker.

You’ll be missed! I’ve often found value in reading your comments!

Derrick R. - Thanks. DLS

Hope there's a lady in the picture who is part of those focused attentions. Be well.

Andre F. - There is always a lady. DLS

You will be missed David. You and I have been in this thing almost since inception and I’ve always found your comments to have been engaging and meaningful. All the best David.

Thanks to all. Keep up the good work. DLS

David thanks for the kind words and hope you get equal satisfaction from those other directions.

Russell has thought this through deeply. Thanks for your kind words.

Interesting - certainly a lot of truth in what you say. Who knows how it resolves itself. In your scenario, the stockmarket keeps going up which is fine but who buys the bonds?

The schemes are huge - I don't know the size of the programme and we won't know the exact size until the UK Government has to honour the guarantees but it will not be small, for sure - not my area of expertise but sure you can find out more.

I would like Real Vision to film Russell having a pint and me having a large glass of red in my local. Even more fun!

pleased you enjoyed it, thanks for the kind words

This is why capital controls won't be needed. There has been a paradigm shift in the way governments fund their operations. In the post-war period, capital controls became de facto because taxes are needed to balance budget deficits. Moving capital overseas means the capital can't be taxed, which results in higher government deficits. Deficits were seen as bad in the post-war years just because it was the paradigm. But now, government budget deficits just get moved to central bank balance sheets. Japan started the trend and now that the US has done it, the rest of the world will follow. Big central bank balance sheets will become the norm. Some countries may even experiment with reducing or indeed eliminating income taxes given that deficits can just be moved to central bank balance sheets. In this paradigm, the government won't care if you move your money to the Carribean or Russia or Indonesian or Indian stock markets. The government has all the money it needs thanks to the central bank printing press. In effect, what could result is the Weimarisation by all central banks/nations. In this environment, inflation could indeed manifest and gold and any commodity and hard asset will be bid.

Nic, You had a great big "LMFAO" (with two exclamation marks just to let everyone know what an uproarious time you're having) right at the start of your first comment. And my comment gave you another great belly laugh. That's great Nic, It's nice that you're so happy you can't stop laughing. :) Thank you for your generosity with the upvote on my effortful scribble. Right back at ya, I gave you one too. Take care.

not with this level of detail from a finance view. But they are similar themes, taxes, inflations, rates will all increase as we move into the future

No. No Steven Van Metre explanation. Simply a part 2 with Russel and Stephen.

interesting. so what to own then?

Good points Martin. On real estate thought, what about getting it at a 30 year fixed rate?

MartinS. If you as the owner of the real estate have locked in the interest rate, then yes you do want to own real estate. If (a big "if") you can own real estate without debt, then again you do want to own real estate. My worry with real estate isn't interest rates (due to what i said above). My worry with real estate would be whether your tenants are going to go bust, if they do go bust can you get new and richer tenants into your building. Lastly, the general neighborhood of my real estate would also be my concern.

Also, any ways to access Aussie residential? Thanks

Have you looked into mulitfamily syndications?

Into vaults

Effectively, it goes back to a place that is hard for it to be surfaced again, e.g., vaulting by "strong hands."

Thanks

Inherit money and get an RV subscription.

I loved that quote, and am glad you did too!

Attributed to Jean baptiste Colbert, finance misiter of Louis XIV in the 17th century. On the subject of taxation France has always been a leader.

Agreed! Btw you posted this twice

Apologies for the double post. Typos in the original. Too bad you can't delete bad posts.

Thanks for a very interesting contrary perspective! What asset classess will win using your thesis?

Riki S.: Allocation for a disinflation/deflation scenario depends on the time period. But let's say the following "deflationary" scenario takes hold: 1. U.S.: 2-3% average annualized nominal growth over the next five years, half real GDP/half inflation, coupled with the emergence of Zombie banks. 2. Governments would have to continue to foster massive credit creation, just to keep the system afloat, by directly funding the bond markets, government spending, and would likely have to start buying equities in the open market. 3. CPI inflation remains low in this scenario, business profits get hit from sluggish demand, bond yields go negative. 4. That suggests a rough position, over roughly five years of: underweight equities, overweight long bonds, underweight real estate, market weight gold, and heavy overweight bitcoin (because bitcoin would be very sensitive to credit expansion). This of course is theoretical. Not investment advice. Position would have to be monitored closely as assumptions and timings change.

You print and give enough money away, you will get GDP inflation DLS

Agreed, and I don't see loan growth apart from the first spike where (mostly large) companies drew on their credit lines. Looks like it is coming down fast now https://twitter.com/SantiagoAuFund/status/1359757497028866056

How High Inflation Swindles the Equity Investor Warren Buffet, Fortune Magazine, 1976. Pages 2-15. http://csinvesting.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Buffett-inflation-file.pdf

A lot more folks will agree when back rents are not paid. DLS

Absolutely!

Well if you're lazy as I am, you can just buy a well managed residential REIT. This way you also get better geographical diversification to minimize the vagaries of rent controls. Note that even if you are local and able to fix things, you probably still want to pay yourself something for being your own handyman. So from an accounting perspective, the profit is roughly the same and you still don't make a dime.

To some extent but political and economic forces will lead to development of alternative sources for these resources so over the longer term these countries will end up in the same situation as other developed nations - I note both have now joined the QE/MMT club and government debts are spiralling - their private sectors are already highly indebted.

Its an article from Barron's - it's in the library on my website https://www.behindthebalancesheet.com/ you just have to sign up. Well worth reading.

Great summary. I would like to add most governments will be broke from COVID Times. Many new and creative tax regulations will be promulgated. DLS

Great post. That Hackett interview was outstanding mainly because it sets straight the hoax of global warming which was always political and fear mongering, not reality based (proved by changing language to climate change, an indisputable reality of life). But we are indeed living in a clown world of (political) energy stories, another one being the dirty, carbon based "investment" required to get "green technology" which is anything but when you consider it as an entire process, not 1st order leftist thinking. It would be refreshing for more people to call this out and say, "Yes, that is correct, but political realities force us to adapt our investment strategy". Movements of the left (likely because of the predisposition towards population growth and thus collectivism when competition is even fiercer) are those that "make the same mistake". That's my only issue with your post. The proof is that we have not seen governments or politicians move right, they (even if supposedly Republicans like Nixon, ha, or whatever you want to call them) always move with the collective to greater and greater size governments. This happens to be anti-American and against its foundations and Constitution, which is why after a small period of pay me now, the whole system is a chaotic mess of payback later (coming soon to a theater near you). The right wing movements have produced greater efficiency and saved countries, Pinochet proved this in a sea of marxism in South America, as the only viable recuperation of a people and its economy, only to be labeled a murderer by leftist propaganda news sources - while Fidel and Che are praised, Hugo and Nicolas murder even more and starve their whole population, etc. But yes, it is commodity time. Let's hope it's not war time soon with the incompetent US traitors/"leaders" we have currently.

LOL David S, stop selling the lies. They were broke pre-COVID and then made things more chaotic as a plan to get bailed out, which might work ... for a year. Thankfully we have bitcoin while the planned "solution" will also fail after the planned non-pandemic.

No need to sign up to Stephen's site if you don't want to. Here's a direct link: https://www.hollandadvisors.co.uk/cms/resources/how-inflation-swindles-the-equity-investor.pdf

Lemony S. It is getting warmer! I recall sailing off of Molokai. The relief captain knew everything about sailing with a shore map in hand. I said it is getting shallower. He said look at the map. Look at the shore for landmarks. I said it is getting shallower. Impossible he said. You are not a sailor. We ran into the reef full speed. Boat completely disabled. You do not need to know everything to be right about one thing. DLS

Exactly, to do YCC, Jay will have to sacrifice the USD and cause a cycle of inflation->currency devaluation->more inflation. Not to mention, he will have to buy all corporate bonds, not just UST's since inflation expectations will just start to price into the credit spreads.

It depends on how many countries do yield curve control. FX is a relative game. DLS

Japan has falling birth rate coupled with rising elder population. With internet efficiencies many western economies will have problems keeping citizens employed. We just have to wait to see how it plays out in each country. DLS

Let's see - Russell in my experience is often way ahead of the curve

Mr. Napier also gave you sign post to watch. Dr. Hunt is excellent also, except he places too much value that banks will make reasonable loans. I am referring to all the hedge fund loans banks made to leverage the stock markets. Of course if you are an investment bank, it may all be done in house. DLS

I'll take Lacy Hunt's 40 year record of being correct on the bond market over Napier everyday of the week.

ryan m. - Dr. Hunt is excellent and a gentleman. The bond market has been a one-way street for many years. It cannot continue down the same road. The ground is shifting under our feet. I need to add different thinking to my outlook. Mr. Napier explores a new dimention for me. IMO it is time for multiple views in the short, medium and long term while watching the market like a hawk. I am glad I am only betting my money. DLS

it means the working age population is declining, and therefore real economic growth will turn negative, and to stop things becoming nasty, central banks force people to take on risk assets / a risk profile they'd rather not, but have to in order to avoid guaranteed negative real rates of return

Yield curve control (bonds mispriced below market), capital controls (no access to foreign assets / foreign borrowing) ... my guess.

Russell believes that in order to keep interest rates down when inflation rises, governments will resort to macroprudential regulation in order to ensure an adequate supply of forced buyers for their debt.

Thanks for the replies. What does macroprudential mean?

The government will require banks, insurance companies, pension funds and the like to hold more safe assets such as USTs or UK gilts under the pretence it makes the system safer. That in essence is what macroprudential regulation means. What it does is to create a ready market of buyers for government debt, which no sane person would want to own them. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macroprudential_regulation

I didn't go back for another listen, but I honestly thought he was referencing something different: forced purchases of Treasuries, presumably having negative real, and perhaps negative nominal, yields. In other settings where this issue has been raised, it is assumed the tactics will be regulatory and institutional: pensions, certain 401K/IRA structures, etc. would be required to purchase.

Umm... I guess I hadn't refreshed... my remark above was meant to be in response to William D.; i see its been covered already by others.

For details on that rabbit hole go to Grant Williams' Interview with Russell Napier on The End Game Series (Episode 5 on August 2, 2020) or to Macrovoices #256 (Jan 28, 2021); both are available for free via Apple Podcasts.

That's a good idea, Marc...

Pounding the upvote button

Can you suggest a public company that is in that business?

Michael B.-there are your agriculture related companies-DE, IPI, etc., but the inflation hedge is to directly own farmland. Farmland partners is a farmland RIET but they trade at a discount to book value-there is a reason for that. I own and manage myself through an LLC.

He sounds Irish to me, maybe a nice, smooth, triple distilled Irish whisky?

As is Clapham!

so true and thanks Robert K!

I wish I had his recollection and ability to express complex ideas with such simplicity - he is super smart

https://russellnapier.co.uk/ I am doing this because I know Russell won't!