It is interesting to rewatch some of these videos after some time has passed. In the case of shorting the US dollar and buying EM, from July 2017 to today, that trade is flat but you could have made money if you sold at the beginning of 2018.

Fog sweeps over the snow caps of Everest...

American depository receipt

Thanks Jim L.

I would not bet against Mr. Clark. DLS

The point was about the amounts won, not the number of hands won. Obviously, you would win more hands with AA. But his point was that flush draws attract bettors that would put a lot in the pot, whereas AA doesn't draw as many because you bet hard up front.

I think that Mr. Clark was saying that just trying to play for high hand with A and/or King is one strategy. Another strategy is to play for a flush. It opens up a second dimension in the game. Mr. Clark likes to understand a market and play them in multiple ways like Raoul's knock-on effects. DLS

If Mr. Clark wants to win at poker against the best he ought to approach it in the same dry manner that he approaches investing. From what he says in this interview I want him at my table all day long as it appears to me he has succumbed to selection bias while ignoring simple statistics. When AA is cracked it hurts and when flush draws come in it's very sweet. But statistics like Pokertracker and Holdem Manager tell a very clear story over time: AA performance is awesome and flush draws less so. I've been a poker pro since 2005 so the dry bottom line numbers are what interest me more than anything else.

Jacob L. Would you play for a possible flush given that you did not have an AA or AK, or fold. Thx. DLS

When Clark is talking about his flush draws he's not talking about getting it in pre-flop with AK or AA but rather on the flop and thereafter. I understand his point as AA is rarely a favorite on straightening and flushing boards and you're usually either winning a small pot or losing a big one. You usually win the big pots with big hands and once the flop hits the odds are totally different that pre (obviously)

I have made all I own from over 10 years and >5M hands of online NLHE, much of it at high stakes. Even many pros wouldn't believe that roughly 75% of my winnings have come from AA alone, which you are dealt under 0.5% of the time. His frustration with overpairs most likely comes from overplaying them on flush and straight boards in pots that are too small to be committing large sums with one pair.

fail - I just ditched my iPhone for a Huawei, why? Because it does exactly the same, some things even better, has a better camera, has a HEADPHONE JACK (!) and costs a third of what the iPhone does. Time to wake the FU, Apple.......

oh! and it has expandable third party memory too.

I just switched to a Xiaomi and it's functionality is pretty much on par with the iPhone for $200. Probably will never go back unless Apple dramatically lowers their price. The mobile phone growth in EM at least is in the mid-range which are affordable. Apple as a status symbo is sort of a fallacy I think. IT-wise it's easier to work with android phones and microsoft laptops as well as the interface is now on par with Apple and you can do so much more with MS.

I recently talked to a few CFO's for some heavily debt burdened upstream companies. They told me $60 US oil price and their problems are solved.

US is the home of creative destruction still, even with the corporate takeover of Congress and all the shale BS. China the home of 9 little weird guys desperately trying to stay in power by goosing RE construction and heavy industry and causing massive capital mis allocation. Just when is Xi going to give wealth back to the people per Pettis so that a consumer led economy can develop and allow better capital allocation? Isn't, they are headed for a massive credit crisis and extended slow growth because of too much continued investment in unproductive RE & infrastructure and excess heavy industry (which I am not convinced has erased all its capacity, as he asserts of steel). Now is not the time to invest in China.

Stephen Roach was on Bloomberg in the past week or so, and said China is already making the shift towards a more service-based economy and domestic consumption, and at an unprecedented rate (and he gave some numbers). I'm sure they have a long way to go, and I have no idea regarding timing for that, or when China may be a good investment. Can probably still pull the interview up on Bloomberg for now.

Most of their service industry depends on the RE development and price bubble.

Unlike the US, Chinese leaders, in their own interest, seem to be trying to improve the lives of the Chinese people; net, net let us rule and we will make your economic lives better. It is a race between Chinese style communism and the new American representative oligarchy. Of course, representative oligarchies are very inefficient. The oligarchs have to convince the citizens to vote for their representatives while paying for the representative also. Maybe some of our representatives in Congress need to register as paid lobbyist. Look at the health care bill and the income tax proposals in the US Congress. DLS

You've just described the Hegelian dialectic used to drive the world toward the globalist end game. Western style oligarchy vs. Chinese style communism - thesis vs antithesis, resulting in the synthesis of a neofeudal globalist totalitarian technotronic hell. I realize we're all here to navigate uncharted waters in the pursuit of preserving and growing capital, but to ignore and not speak out against the obvious end game is beyond disappointing. We used to have real money and real capital markets where capital formation and price discovery were competitive and reality based. What do we have now? A top down centrally planned quasi-communist, quasi-fascist, liberty crushing two-tiered system of haves and have nots. A brutish and ugly world for all but the utltra "elite." It would be heartening to hear some of the leading lights of the investment world speak out against this. After all, it is not that different from Russell's description of the shale industry pursuing a business model that can only lead to self destruction. Because that is inherently what the financial profession is doing today by merely focusing on how to make a buck under the circumstances provided rather than using its influence and capital to end the insanity.

But otherwise, good interview.

The US has capitalist oligarchs and China has communist oligarchs. They are both oligarchs. No Hegelian dialectic here. Must admit I do not ascribe to Hegel's dialectic anyway, as I do not believe the world is determined, just crazy human reflexivity - see George Soros.

Raoul gets an A for always trying to see the other side of the equation. This is positive feedback. It works when both parties respect each other. DLS

Thanks guys. My job is to act as the conversation facilitator, so I try really hard not to impose my views but to gently encourage a fleshing out of contrary ideas from which we can all learn and adapt.

You do not impose your views, but you do an excellent job of fleshing out pertinent views. DLS

it's too much fo me, even at discount - also, I have no guarantee I would even be able to understand it.

R.P. Eddy - ha! That is exactly who came to my mind too! "America should be the policeman of the world" err... no Mr. Eddy - you are completely out of touch with reality. "For the winds they are a changin'..........."

and the video games! ;)

+1

We've got lots of great Bitcoin content coming soon!

peso is likely to get murdered in next few months. look at their inflation rate.

I will take the opposite view. Raoul right now. Russell right later.

Agree, Raoul thesis first then Russell Clarks longer term.

Actually I think the Euro could first appreciate to 1.17-1.18. Then the USD could go higher for a while. Followed by USD weakness based on Russell Clarks arguments and decreased in demand for petrodollars. I read that payments of Oil will also be denominated in Euro and Yuan. (Can someone confirm this?) Oil, probably lower first, based on Raoul's arguments (around 40 maybe) and in 6 months to 1-2 years substantially higher prices due to stable/increasing demand, lower investments, and shale oil decrease/bust. In the 4-7 year timeframe (permanently) lower prices again due to increases in alternative energy and electric vehicles?

In the long run you are probably correct, but it takes a long time to change a paradigm. Scale into it and push only when it is working. DLS

It can go down w/o taking everything else down with it. The markets are complicated. Good luck. DLS

In the interview Mr. Clark did not seem bearish or bullish. I will remember your comment as I watch the second time. Thanks, DLS

He is not a bear nor a bull, but a pro, exploiting the groupthinking amateurs the best he can.

Not sure about his Shale conclusion. If he was right, oil would be North of $60 today.