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MC@sashi g. @Jack Farley Sashi maybe we can put in a request for Real Vision to add a slower speed option to the Real Vision Media app. The app already has an option to play at a faster speed. Let me know if you think this will help.
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SG@Jack Farley, could speak a bit slower.
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SGLot of information but I found the interview itself all over the place. In the sense that we had the investment case stated and with caveats at the same time and spoke across the dollar, commodities, EM, rates, liquidity ... so it kind of went blurring by for me. Glad others found it very useful and came out with some takeaways
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SGWatching this a month from the filming, Ted expected a rally but it did exactly the opposite, coming to 6 year lows. He gave himself a safe backstop by saying if it breaks the lows, then his thesis is wrong. No doubt investment thesis can always go wrong, but he gave an elaborate construct and immediately said this could go wrong if this happens. Just makes me remember that everyone has an opinion in the markets, but you really need to have your own.
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TZHigher real rates mean commodities lower. Interesting. Yet he is long commodities like oil, gold, silver. Maybe I misunderstood something?
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JJI’d drop quite a bit of cash if I could somehow get Dr Lacey Hunt & Teddy out to dinner together and just be a fly on the wall nearby. 2 incredible minds.
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JJTeddy is 1 of my favorite follows on FinTwit & his interviews are always packed w/ raw knowledge & info.
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RHBeware of basing views of inflation (and real rates) purely around the TIPS market. There would seem to be "a lot" of noise in that signal. Danielle DiMartino Booth put out a chart a couple months back that showed the FED increasing its ownership of the TIPS market from, I think, 8% to nearly 20% this year.
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PGFantastic - Teddy V. always delivers coherent commentary and analysis!
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GSHighest conviction trade is real rates. It would have been nice to spend more time (i.e. some time) on the other half of that equation. Inflation "Expectations". Why won't break evens explode higher if people have seen the late 60's/early 70's inflation b/c of dual deficits?
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VPThis video deserves more positive comments!
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TRGreat work, Teddy. Very valuable. And you have been right on the money previously. So I will certainly add your outlook to my own arsenal af scenarios. I am already overweight energy, materials and some in Latin American, but will increase the latter. And a really good interview, once again, Jack. I really appreciate that you don't have to showcase your ego by letting the interview become a too esoteric conversation between two peers..... and that you on the contrary repeatedly stop to ask your guest to define and explain concepts and terms. I am geeting more out of this. The bit with the real rates could call for an entire programme though to really hit the points home. Otherwise, great job! Cheers, Thomas
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DDI have now seen it mentioned multiple times that the present value of an annuity goes to infinity as rates approach zero, but that is simply not the case, unless we are talking about a perpetuity. As rates go to zero, present value of future cashflows is simply equal to their sum (without any discounting) so for the valuation to be infinite, future cashflows must be infinite (not sure if this is a particularly prudent assumption to make). What does breakdown is the terminal value component, but surely those running the valuation models are smart enough to see it and make adjustments.
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DAThis interview deserves a wider audience. Increasingly I am finding the interviews with lesser known figures (particularly those who actually manage money) to be best content on Real Vision. Some of the big names attract lots of views but are full of dogmatic certainty and hubris, presumably because once they were once correct (Nouriel Roubini, Hugh Hendry and, dare I say it, Kiril Sokolov).
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MDGreat interview Jack. I always learn something from your interviews. Thanks Teddy - super clear and bringing it back to time-frames is excellent. Cheers.
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VBGood interview, but not onboard with the conclusions from the QE - Treasury vs. DXY chart. When the treasury issues a bond, you are right, the dealers are obliged to bid for it, but we are ignoring the most important factor here: the price! If they didn't want them, primary dealers wouldn't bid such high prices for them. More treasuries = more collateral = more credit/money = lower dollar. Dealers have been outbidding one another and hoarding treasuries, knowing that they will get better and better offers for them in the secondary market. It follows that opposed to conventional wisdom, the Fed buys treasuries through the QE program, lowering the yield and making it more profitable to stick the capital into excess reserves instead, and collect IOER, effectively taking liquidity out of the system, as capital held in the Fed reserve accounts is not used to by the banks to provide liquidity to the market. QE hasn't worked in 2 decades in Japan, nor in over 1 decade in the US (no inflation, lower yields). That's because printing money is not actually "printing money", but more complex than that, and most likely not with the desired effects on the dollar; it has been too strong = (treasury) collateral shortage.
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OAI'm going to need Jack and Nick to explain the 'real rates going up thesis' like I'm a 3rd grader.
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RBRaoul thesis is (correct me if he has changed his mind) is demographics and super debt cycle , excess capacity in most industrial goods are grossly deflationary. Fed is trapped it cant afford to allow real rates to rise given debt levels, asset price elevations, pension liabilities, insolvency wave etc etc..thus YCC is inevitable. Albeit he thinks usd strengthens, which seems counter intuitive
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SAthankful for this macro surgery
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TEReal macro
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JFWhen was this filmed? Because when Teddy talks about the need to revaluate his dollar thesis if the recent lows break, I guess he is referring to the 92 level in the DXY which broke just last week
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MGLove when Teddy's on real vision. His views are always clear and concise. Most importantly hes really good at delivering the complex in a simple manner.
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MAIs it just me or are others not seeing comments on the app for the past few weeks?
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SSJack Thanks for being responsive to comments. Love your enthusiasm and this is a good interview and content.
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WMExcellent interview guys! Jack you're already a pro at this, bravo!
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NFNice interview by both.
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CYHow are foreign purchases of treasuries factored into Teddy's model of treasury issuance less QE? I agree that if foreign investors are not buying the surplus then that would be dollar bullish as we saw from 2015-2019, but if foreigners are buying the surplus then I imagine this would impact the accuracy of such a model when viewed in isolation?
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SSJack Thanks for being responsive to comments. Love your enthusiasm and this is a good interview and content.
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SWas long as the dollar holds recent lows otherwise we're wrong = it hasn't, they're wrong?
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SSEffing fantastic. Teddy is brilliant and Jack was spectacular! Best interview I’ve seen in a while.
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mwDXY needs to hold 91
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LLJack, I loved this interview! Every time I had a question, you asked it, and the skillful methods you used to tease out clarifications of concepts was fantastic. Just an outstanding macro outlook from Teddy. Great interview!
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SHAm I missing anything here thinking there's something wrong/flipped with the QE - Treasury Issuance vs DXY showing on the chart? Teddy mentioned it's supposed to be Treasury Issuance - QE being a leading indicator of the DXY direction. Can anyone help clarify this please?
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JFHi all, if you want to see all the charts from this interview, I posted them in the Real Vision Exchange: https://exchange.realvision.com/post/entire-chart-deck-from-my-interview-with-teddy-vallee-hi-all-here-are-all-t--5fc690c1b71ebd62be5c90a6
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SBGreat interview. I did write a lot more but the page reloaded automatically to the next video so I lost all of my text. It is a very poorly thought out feature.
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GGAwesome!
