The Biggest Geopolitical Fat Tail Risks for 2020

Published on
January 28th, 2020
56 minutes

The Biggest Geopolitical Fat Tail Risks for 2020

The Interview ·
Featuring Maziar Minovi

Published on: January 28th, 2020 • Duration: 56 minutes

Maziar Minovi, CEO of Eurasia Group, joins Real Vision to discuss the biggest geopolitical threats to global stability that he sees on the horizon. He analyzes the ongoing decoupling of the US-China trade relationship and argues that the severing of technological protocols could inflict the most lasting damage. Minovi explains why he believes the rising cynicism of the American voter to be the greatest risk to global stability. Filmed on January 22, 2020, in New York.



  • CV
    Collin V.
    23 February 2020 @ 18:26
    Fantastic talk guys.
  • NL
    Nikola L.
    3 February 2020 @ 22:32
    when I started to believe I am the sharpest knife in the geopolitical kitchen Ed introduces me to Maziar.
  • KV
    Keld V.
    2 February 2020 @ 12:54
    He is presenting himself and his firm as being objective politically, but everything he says is from the left perspective, just like hearing normal mainstream left media.
  • HC
    Hahns C.
    30 January 2020 @ 16:55
    Listening to Maziar it calls to mine the intricacies in the book "Destined for War" by Graham Allison concerning the "Thucydide's Trap". The subordinate interconnected relationships surrounding both the rising superpowers of China and the established powers of the US and EU create huge risks for war. The fragile and fragmented competing interests to thrive versus survive causes nations to ignore the plight of others over their own successes. The risks associated with allied players surrounding the financial superpowers presents geopolitical risks that will likely generate unforeseen externalities resulting in further destabilizing relations globally. To avoid such catastrophic issues the leadership of the superpowers MUST become congruent in goals and aspire for win-win solutions. While big data seems to be the one key common element - the 4 basic human freedoms are a better start - 1)freedom of speech and expression, 2)freedom of worship, 3)freedom from fear, and 4)freedom from want. The West created this notion and has it straight - all of the Middle East (ex Israel) and Asia needs to get on board. Otherwise, we are going to kill each other in the end.
    • IO
      Indi O.
      31 January 2020 @ 18:45
      Unfortunately even in the West it's starting to fragment. Increasingly majorities want these net goods only for those they consider to be like themselves, to the extent that they will support policies that damage them personally rather than being included in benefit that must also be extended to "others."
    • JE
      J E.
      2 February 2020 @ 06:48
      the 4 basic human freedoms are a better start - 1)freedom of speech and expression, 2)freedom of worship, 3)freedom from fear, and 4)freedom from want . I think you need to realize that 40% of the world is under a mix or full authoritarian government. Those 4 basic values are not shared in many parts of the world. To united you to need to focus on things people can agree on. Such as the environments, threats of aliens, threats from technological job displacement and figure out how to form a new technological bretton woods
  • DS
    David S.
    28 January 2020 @ 06:35
    Excellent interview. Too many moving parts for me. Europe is happy to export to both the US and China. It will be an interesting balancing act to keep the EEC afloat as the global markets are bifurcated by China and the US. Old investors like gold, while younger investors may go for gold and/or Bitcoin. Good luck. DLS
    • IO
      Indi O.
      31 January 2020 @ 18:46
      Definitely gold and bitcoin. And arable land.
  • RT
    Rex T.
    30 January 2020 @ 01:54
    Wow! Finally a guy that knows what he’s talking about.
  • FB
    Floyd B.
    29 January 2020 @ 21:48
    Extremely well done,covered a great deal of information in a concise ,informative and candid way. Please invite Mr. Minovi to update us on these risks!
  • JW
    J W.
    29 January 2020 @ 19:43
    This was quite an extraordinary ‘tour d’horizon’ around the various economic hotspots and geo political issues we are seeing in the world. Fascinating points of view. Would definitely like to see him back at some point.
  • JC
    Jan C.
    29 January 2020 @ 19:41
    The Hidden Forces Podcast recently had Michael Lind on. He adds additional insight to the populism/division phenomenon though the 20th century. Great information and a great future interview in this series.
  • PG
    Philippe G.
    29 January 2020 @ 16:44
    Excellent. Plenty to think about and digest!
  • SM
    Stephan M.
    29 January 2020 @ 16:44
    Very good overview - as a European I can confirm his outlook on turkey and topics like tariffs or carbon tax as well as the risk for corporations which are globalized.
  • WS
    William S.
    29 January 2020 @ 01:45
    Bring him back periodically...great information and interview.
  • LH
    Louis-Philippe H.
    29 January 2020 @ 01:04
    Sharp guy, hope we get to hear him again
  • AT
    Andrea T.
    28 January 2020 @ 20:36
    Polarization in US politics is not a risk, it's just circus. When it comes down to expand the budget and spend money, there are always bipartisan agreements. Reps and dems just need to pretend to care of different things to differentiate themselves. But they advocate for the same policies at the fundamental level.
    • DS
      David S.
      28 January 2020 @ 22:09
      Not the same policies, but the same excess spending. Both will print money to get re-elected. DLS
  • KE
    Kathryn E.
    28 January 2020 @ 20:30
    Amazing interview, extremely engaging and full of useful information. Thanks RV
  • PJ
    Peter J.
    28 January 2020 @ 14:59
    Excellent interview, brings variety and breadth to RVTV coverage. Would be great to get Maziar back once a year for an update and overview of his current top ten