The Charts of Truth

Published on
April 17th, 2020
Duration
42 minutes


The Charts of Truth

The Interview ·
Featuring Peter Brandt and Raoul Pal

Published on: April 17th, 2020 • Duration: 42 minutes

Peter Brandt, Founder of Factor LLC, speaks to Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, about the dramatic price action he’s witnessing in equities, commodities, currencies, gold, and bitcoin. A veteran technical analyst, Brandt tells Pal about the charts on his radar and how they are informing his investing perspective. Raoul discusses how he interprets these chart patterns through the lens of dominant market narratives and shares how they are informing his macro framework. Filmed on April 15, 2020.

Comments

Transcript

  • JL
    James L.
    10 September 2020 @ 06:51
    Need to interview Peter again now that equities are back to new all-time highs.
  • cs
    connor s.
    8 May 2020 @ 15:02
    What a cool guy. Charts guy + Macro guy is always fun and makes for *Real (vision)* value
  • BC
    Brian C.
    30 April 2020 @ 20:53
    I will take the other side, I don't see S&P going below 2000. If I'm wrong (and have been many times), only an even better buying opportunity
  • CG
    Chris G.
    26 April 2020 @ 03:40
    My guess is commercials were short gold last year because producers could be profitable above 1300 so they were locking in some sell prices. And I don't blame them if that theory is true, because it is mungo expensive to shut down and restart a mine. Much better to hedge some production. Just a thought...anyone in the industry have feedback on this?
  • IA
    Ibrahim A.
    20 April 2020 @ 04:59
    Robert Prechter, THE authority on EW, called for gold to drop by 40% in January 2010 it was around $1100/ounce then.
    • SD
      Sebastien D.
      20 April 2020 @ 23:07
      Prechter bankrupted his follower a few times (literally not figuratively), he called to leverage short the S&P at the bottom in 2009. Probably one of the worst call in history. That day I understood why people with such great talent (ironic here) have to sale books and subscriptions rather than live off their trading skills. They are just fools throwing opinions, Prechter is definitely the hall of fame! BTW I studied EW and regularly use it as a tool. But aside identifying a trend vs a correction and a few key levels it's very unreliable. You can almost always make it fit your narrative by playing with the time-frames and various patterns.
    • AS
      Ameet S.
      23 April 2020 @ 03:47
      Robert Prechter called the bottom in 2009. He directed subscribers to short s&p 500 futures when it moved from 666 to 1200. That's when he was wrong. He got his subscribers to short s&p 500 from the 1550 top in 2007 and covered around 700. He did well for his subscribers. Another market he was wrong in was in the treasury markets. He keeps telling subscribers to short us treasury bonds, which is a bad trade. Other wise, EWI does provide good technical analysis to clients.
  • Av
    Andre v.
    20 April 2020 @ 08:32
    Great conversation on so many levels! Thanks Peter and Raoul. One of the best ever for me on RV. Peter '...about Bitcoin, I think there's a 50% chance it goes to 100,000 but I think there's a 50% chance it goes to zero' - WOW The same can't be said about gold. Gold is an asset of every central bank, they will defend the foundation when comes push to shove. A few white pieces of legislative paper and Bitcoin could be a financial outlaw. That being said Gold has been an outlaw at the civil ownership level before when gold had to be turned into the state. But you got the 'deposit' back at least....That being said I hold 3% of the portfolio in the top ten Crypto's as a hedge. I am not a day trader. Also I think a lot of the civil day traders- the mom and pop team type speculators of Bitcoin are either unemployed or they need the cash to survive. As peter said Bitcoin should be going gang busters now, but its not. In fact Raoul gave a very technical answer to a macro statement/conviction/meaning response by Peter. That was very interesting to see the mental models appearing in the conversation... I think the idea/blockchain tech of Bitcoin will long outlive Bitcoin itself. But one can't bet 100% against it in the near term that would be playing god. My 2c :-)
    • PV
      Per-Olof V.
      21 April 2020 @ 11:12
      I don't think you understand "blockchain tech". https://twitter.com/ajgarnerin/status/1251475335641812992
  • RT
    Rahber T.
    19 April 2020 @ 06:28
    Hi Raoul (and others on these threads) - 1) Any concern that the Fed is trailing down purchases of bonds? It's now down to $15B/day from $75B/day earlier. 2) Also any idea on what the time frame looks like? I'm not a chart expert but based on what I'm seeing it looks like June '20 is about right....any thoughts? Thanks!
    • CN
      Charles N.
      21 April 2020 @ 04:08
      Don't worry about week to week QE numbers. If you believe the Fed balance sheet is going to $10T+, that's all you need to know. With interest rate at the zero bound, QE is one of the biggest tools in the kit. Best of luck
  • GP
    George P.
    19 April 2020 @ 10:47
    In this interview with Peter, Raoul mentioned that Elliot Wave chartists/theorists think there’s a down wave coming for gold. Can someone explain what the EW thinking on Gold is? It would be helpful if you could point me in the direction of a chart or another RV video where this is actually discussed. Thanks
    • GG
      Gary G.
      19 April 2020 @ 17:22
      George, in a nutshell, from the $1943 (?) 2011 high, EWI sees a very large 3-wave correction with Wave A ending when gold dropped below $1100. The rise since then, in their view, is Wave B and is near the end after which gold will drop into high three digits.
    • SD
      Sebastien D.
      20 April 2020 @ 23:23
      Correct, the move up from 1100$ is very hard to see as an impulse (because of the slowness and many overlaps) which means in EW that it's still counter trend, then next is to go down. That only works with USD though. If you look at it in euro, yen etc. you're at all time highs so it must be an impulse and it's bullish long term.
  • SP
    Steve P.
    20 April 2020 @ 18:43
    I respect this man because he’s happy about making a living for his family off of trading. It’s in his first documentary, toward the end when he says “trading gave me all this” , and it’s a humble ranch style house. Respect his story too
  • DC
    D C.
    20 April 2020 @ 18:31
    It's deflation before hyperinflation, right? Or look at Japan, LT yields sub 1% for 8 yrs already. Things that make you go hmmm.
  • TS
    Tamim S.
    17 April 2020 @ 17:02
    Always great to see Peter around these parts. I wonder why he thinks Bitcoin has a 50% chance of going to zero, I believe it to be a much smaller percentage then that.
    • CT
      Crispim T.
      17 April 2020 @ 17:28
      Bitcoin (BTC) is binary at this stage. It either succeeds (keeps succeeding) and goes to millions per BTC or only some black swan will make it fail, probably erasing all value. Quite a few people are thinking that way. I think the potential to succeed is extraordinary, at the level of the early internet, but affecting many more people given that everyone needs to protect savings and store/move value across time and space.
    • SM
      Sergio M.
      17 April 2020 @ 19:52
      I dont think he actually believes that. He probably actually thinks it has a 50% chance up or down in that triangle ... lol :D
    • MH
      M.F. H.
      20 April 2020 @ 17:57
      I think you say 50/50 if you know it is binary, but you don't really know how to assign probabilities with any greater precision. Toss of a coin kind of thing.
  • JM
    Jim M.
    19 April 2020 @ 16:56
    50 year chart of the 21 year old EURO??
    • TR
      Travis R.
      19 April 2020 @ 17:23
      Probably using Deutche Mark for historical reference.
    • JD
      Jarod D.
      20 April 2020 @ 16:44
      It's explained in the video. Brandt uses a trade-weighted composite of the pre-euro currencies.
  • TK
    THOMAS K.
    20 April 2020 @ 12:44
    Quite a lot of shade thrown at Peter Brandt on social media but he was brilliant here, regardless of whether he ends up being right or wrong
  • gg
    gurdeep g.
    20 April 2020 @ 12:39
    Been following Peter since RV started. Im very surprised he's bearish equities, as normally he's a little contrarian. Bit of a wake up call for myself
  • PK
    Prafulla K.
    18 April 2020 @ 14:07
    Hey guys, currency noob here...can someone explain the bullish USD meaning against other currencies? Ex in the EURUSD chart peter mentioned that if EURUSD goes from 1.05 to 0.80, it means dollar bull, cause you need more dollars for 1 EUR?
    • IP
      IDA P.
      18 April 2020 @ 14:59
      for euros yes, not for most currencies: most currencies are expressed as USD/other; the euro is expressed as Eur/Usd ... look at the charts while you follow the video
    • Nm
      Nino m.
      18 April 2020 @ 15:09
      less dollars. they're worth more
    • lm
      luke m.
      18 April 2020 @ 21:40
      Essentially the US dollar bull case is apparent because foriegn countries have taken out 14-15 trillion of US dollar debt since the 2008 global financial crisis in anticipation that the US dollar would become weaker and their debt would be easier to pay back. The opposite has happened with the US dollar getting stronger and now every country is struggling to get US dollars to pay down the debt, so all the currencies are having to weaken themselves in comparison to the US dollar in order to pay back their debts. The deglobalisation that the coronavirus has also exacerbated this process. Go and youtube ''the dollar milkshake'' by brent johnson or search for his videos here on real vision.
    • PK
      Prafulla K.
      20 April 2020 @ 04:52
      Thank you all, appreciate the response.
  • CK
    Cristina K.
    19 April 2020 @ 18:39
    That bar and lounge look so good.
  • JM
    Jim M.
    19 April 2020 @ 17:25
    Gotta say this. It's obvious to me. In every video Raoul has done for the last month or so he looks like the cat that ate the canary. Having bought bonds and worn diamonds will do that, I guess.
  • LS
    Lemony S.
    19 April 2020 @ 15:44
    Very enjoyable back and forth here, good stuff. As usual, the gold and bitcoin portion is the prime time segment. BTC moving much higher towards 2021.
  • JD
    John D.
    18 April 2020 @ 21:37
    My concern with BTC is the amount of the market I understand to be controlled by " Whales". without Gov't .oversight they can collude to control the market. Beginner Boomer BTC owner.
    • CH
      Charlie H.
      19 April 2020 @ 13:47
      How’s that different than the equities market?
  • DY
    Donald Y.
    19 April 2020 @ 03:41
    Raoul. In the recently released video on youtube with Dan, you asked about the merit of a stable coin. Just wanted to add to that. If people look past all the excitement of cryptos that can go to the moon and ground themselves on crypto as a currency they can use, wouldn't they want to use a currency that is relatively stable? I mean, I would never want to spend a currency that has a chance of skyrocketing 100x, wouldn't you? But more relevant to trading, I just opened an account recently that allows me to trade cryptos on leverage. They don't accept fiat currency and give the option of depositing stable coin to act as collateral for trading crypto long or short. That was an ah-ha moment for me. Some crypto exchanges restrict you to holding BTC as collateral for BTC futures trades. It's great when it rises, but if it drops, then you are holding a collateral that is losing value, so you better be trading at a good amount of leverage to offset that loss. I don't know about you, but if I'm shorting BTC, I don't want my collateral to be offsetting my short gains on the futures contract. THAT, to me, and to many short term traders of crypto futures, is the ultimate value of a stable coin at the moment.
  • PP
    Patrick P.
    19 April 2020 @ 01:46
    I'm sure Peter is a great guy ... but he would have more cred with me if he had a CMT designation. Just my opinion.
    • CM
      C M.
      19 April 2020 @ 01:51
      "Traded markets since 1974..." skin in the game is worth more the BS credentials
    • JL
      James L.
      19 April 2020 @ 02:45
      LOL
  • EH
    Edward H. | Real Vision
    17 April 2020 @ 12:34
    Ed Harrison here. For the last two interviews, we’ve noticed that no one has commented on the ‘filmed on’ date question. We don’t read that as you all giving us a free pass on this question though. We still recognize the overwhelming response from RV members was that they appreciate a film date. So we discussed this internally and decided to keep the ‘filmed on’ dates and location info. I believe you should start seeing them back starting Monday. I wrote you all in the comments a few days back, saying that we had removed the ‘filmed on’ date because our content release is now more timely, in response to the volatility associated with the pandemic. In the past, RV has prided itself on interviews that don’t have time stamps, so to speak. We still do. But, in this market environment, we felt a need to speed up processes to release content sooner. And so the ‘filmed on’ date went away because of that. But viewers have spoken!! Your response was not necessarily what we wanted to hear. But it is 100% appreciated. So, we listened. Thank you for the feedback, and thank you, as always, for being Real Vision subscribers.
    • BW
      Brett W.
      17 April 2020 @ 12:56
      I didn't think I needed too ;)
    • SS
      S S.
      17 April 2020 @ 13:08
      Thank you for listening.
    • RM
      Richard M.
      17 April 2020 @ 14:00
      Ed/RV, thank you so much for listening AND acting. Your posse spoke and after it echoing in the canyons for some time you finally came thru for us. Many thanks. Although, I will have to admit I would really like to hear RV's explanation for their determined stance on refusing this much sought after request. Regardless, I (and others) really appreciate the fact that we can communicate to you directly and you do respond. Have a super weekend, you've earned it! :-)
    • SJ
      Sean J.
      17 April 2020 @ 14:24
      Yes, appreciate it. Seems that in fast-moving markets, the time-stamp is even MORE relevant (not less).
    • HM
      Harold M.
      17 April 2020 @ 14:54
      Ed, I would definitely like to see the filmed-on date stated on the intro page.
    • gk
      garrison k.
      18 April 2020 @ 00:49
      Ed, thanks for keeping the filmed-on date ... Keep up the terrific content ...
    • WM
      Will M.
      18 April 2020 @ 14:21
      Superb decision RV. Didn't bother me too much personally, but clearly this wasn't an issue worth alienating key followers for. GREAT work.
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      19 April 2020 @ 00:06
      This is a very smart move on your part on several levels. Well done.
  • DB
    David B.
    17 April 2020 @ 15:01
    Peter Brandt is now arguing on Twitter that public health officials misled us, not by understating the COVID problem, but by OVERstating it. That COVID is a nothing and the shutdowns are a sham. He actually made the idiotic argument comparing COVID deaths to car accidents like Dr. Phil did, as if car accidents are contagious. (He has since deleted that tweet and several others.) Inviting him onto your show degrades your show.
    • BD
      Bruce D.
      17 April 2020 @ 15:14
      That’s a ridiculous statement.....and you need to do some more homework, if you want to really understand what’s going on. Time to open your eyes, and wake up to the propaganda machine.
    • CJ
      Craig J.
      17 April 2020 @ 15:52
      He's a trader with an excellent track record, so listen to his opinions on markets. Not viruses.
    • DB
      David B.
      17 April 2020 @ 16:03
      Yes Bruce, comparing car accidents to a highly contagious virus is a ridiculous statement.
    • TP
      Timothy P.
      17 April 2020 @ 17:01
      The analogy was made to emphasize the tradeoffs we make in daily life. The emotional argument is that we stop the economy until no one can possibly contract the virus and die from it. The rational argument is that killing the economy will create more despair and fallout (bankruptcies, suicides, ruined careers, jobs lost forever) than the virus will. The balanced view would be - emphasize testing, quarantine high-risk people, but at the same time allow others who have recovered and those who are immune to participate in a functioning economy so they don't get thrown out into the street. Quite simply, if this goes on too long you're going to see civil unrest, death and disruption like you've never seen before in your lifetime. Would it be worth it? I don't think so, which is why restarting is becoming a high priority.
    • LK
      Lauri K.
      17 April 2020 @ 17:36
      This displays what to me is most wrong in today's world. Canceling and deligitimizing one's life's work due to once misplaced words. It is just so narrow-minded and one essence dumb way of thinking out sometimes physically hurts.
    • KT
      Kai T.
      17 April 2020 @ 17:48
      You have degraded this comment section. People are allowed to have wrong opinions on subjects. In an open society, you want people to be free to express their opinions because you never know when they might be right. Lastly, someone can be an expert and have opinions outside his area of expertise. What? You are right about everything, and hold no false views? Get over yourself.
    • WM
      Will M.
      18 April 2020 @ 14:24
      David get a bloody grip. Your dragging in a contentious issue that the vast majority on RVT don't want or need to get into.
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      19 April 2020 @ 00:05
      Beyond that, Peter is right and David is wrong. The Stanford antibody testing is yet another batch of evidence supporting what the skeptics have all maintained: the overreaction was immense, and the narrative is ... a fraud. Now, social distancing, never proven in any setting --- especially with a respiratory illness --- will cause more damage, including a second wave, which will be the central authorities self fulfilling prophecy, a cherry on top of their utter propaganda and mismanagement.
  • RA
    Robert A.
    18 April 2020 @ 23:52
    I have always enjoyed Peter’s work even though my investment methodology (maybe because I don’t ‘trade’) doesn’t really allow me to properly use his best ideas. Raoul brings the best out of Peter and you can just see and feel the mutual respect these two have for each other along with Peter’s enthusiasm and comfort level when interfacing with Raoul. A really excellent chat Gentlemen and I appreciate having a seat at the table.
  • MS
    Malcolm S.
    18 April 2020 @ 20:00
    A reason for food commodities to continue to decrease in price is the price pressure likely to be seen from EMs. They'll be undercutting everyone just so their economies can survive / recover from covid.
  • ER
    Ernesto R.
    18 April 2020 @ 18:57
    Thanks for the info very valuable
  • FK
    Firoze K.
    18 April 2020 @ 18:40
    I've been a Factor member for a few years now and I've found Peter to be absolutely fantastic. I've learnt so much from him and continue to strive to be as diligent as he is. A wonderful guest and a real treat for me to listen to both Raoul and Peter.
  • PK
    Philipp K.
    18 April 2020 @ 18:20
    Video and aurdio quality was really bad. Somebody please buy Rahul a headset
  • CV
    Collin V.
    17 April 2020 @ 08:18
    Fantastic conversation. I was just about to take a bedtime shot ( it's a quarantine thing) and go to bed , but then saw this video get added. Needless to say I'm a few margaritas in, and am glad I stayed up to watch it. It was extremely insightful to watch two legends discuss the current landscape, because f***, its crazy out there. I want to start out by saying, I'm a huge Bitcoin/crypto fan. Very invested. Backdrop, 34yr old millennial, next to no debt, got in the electrical union at 20, annuity benefitted greatly during this bull run especially in a high risk allocation portfolio, because of my age. Sitting very comfortable, but now very concerned. I've been involved in two big recessions, I'm watching friends of mine going through another housing scare. Yes, I have friends that lost their homes in 08 and now bought new houses only to lose their jobs 10 months later because of Covid. The majority of them own their own businesses too, so its a double whammy. I want to deploy my capital, because Ray Dalio told me cash is trash (kidding, not really), but it seems like we are running out of options. I say that because I hear it all the time from my friends my age, " where do I put my money, its so confusing out there?" Enter Bitcoin. Along with many of my peers, I grew up playing video games. Late 90's and until now, online video games exposed players to virtual economies. In fact, in 1999 I was buying Everquest (video game) platinum for real USD. Because to me, my time carried the real value. I could spend 20 hours playing a video game to get a sword that would make me the most bad ass troll warrior in the game, or I could work 1 hour, and buy that sword from an online exchange and spend 20 hours hacking up enemies! Digital value is something that's very familiar to us. Hell, you could buy college format essays off the internet if you were a student pressed for time. I guess the whole point of my rambling ( sorry ), was because I hear all the discussions on Bitcoin, its going to 100k/going to 0; but rarely do people talk about the generational change Bitcoin brings to participants of said markets. Yes, Gold makes sense. It's historic, the first transaction was 700 BC, but f***, that's history. I can't ever see myself walking into a store with a bag of gold coins paying for a redbull. That's going backwards in time, not forward. Human tech moves forward! Bitcoin changes the way we look at money and value. And it's happening to a generation that grew up with the internet. We are very tech savvy. Not all of us. But most of us. How many Wall Streeters can say they had keyboarding in 4th grade? I did. I don't mean to offend anyone, and I'm sure I'll catch a ton of heat for my staunch Bitcoin beliefs and my lack of understanding on legacy markets. I get it. This is entirely my opinion. Nothing more. But what Bitcoin brings, isn't just another form of money, but an entire ecosystem. It even gets sexier when you start looking at projects like Cardano, Eth, Chainlink, BATs, etc. We are just scratching the surface...Love you all, thank you so much Real Vision for the incredible content. You guys make Finance fun! Cheers!
    • RE
      Renato E.
      17 April 2020 @ 08:58
      Ever heard of the term "Don't Fall in Love with an Investment"? I own BTC too and I see its potential, but I also see the risk of a massive and coordinated intervention by Governments as well. BTC hasn't itself established as the way- to-go solution yet. "Gold makes sense. It's historic, the first transaction was 700 BC, but f***, that's history." Pretty cocky, we will soon find out what people are going to choose as "money".
    • CV
      Collin V.
      17 April 2020 @ 09:06
      Very in love Renato. Bitcoin taught me how to respect money. I always worked hard and did well, but never respected money until BTC. I do own gold as well. I did not mean to come off as cocky. It would take a world wide gov't attack on BTC to shut it down. We can't even agree to wear masks during a virus breakout. I would short a 51% attack if someone could create the proposition. But you are right, it has not established itself as the to-go solution. Good point.
    • CB
      Clifford B.
      17 April 2020 @ 12:20
      That't the thing Collin, Government's do not need to attack it or shut down the network. All US would have to do is shut off access to swift/US banking system and volume would vaporize. Price would plummet. No 51%, no attack, just one simple action. They would not even have to make it illegal.
    • WG
      Wade G.
      17 April 2020 @ 12:21
      Hey Collin, I appreciate your post. It gives me a little window into one perspective; maybe you're representative of countless folks, maybe less so, but it helps me understand where younger folks might be coming from. I didn't think u were too cocky, just honest. I support Renato's concern... "don't fall in love"... good advice for all investments. On the podcast, Peter said, hold strong convictions loosely. Wisdom. I'm an older guy, 58, and finally took small steps to begin to establish a modest position in BTC. It's tough for old-timers. I've been aware of BTC for years. Read papers supportive of its monetary features and understood those concepts cold. But, especially early on, and continuing today, I knew I would never understand the technology. I mean, AT ALL. I was gearing up for a what the heck, stick your toes in the water move, and the Mt. Gox hack happened. What?!? At the same time, i got real busy at work. That was it... I never even took the time to understand what that event meant and never returned to a willingness to genuinely consider BTC until recently. I find so many issues trippy. I think its profoundly generational. I barely get by using the apps on my computer and phone for work. Deciding how/where to buy and store was a genuine barrier to me. I hate the tech parts of it--its defining characteristics--the whole damn point, really. I have to listen to young people on podcasts talk about this and that choice. Then they cover some monetary history and butcher it. I mean really butcher it. And I think, wow... I'm trusting these guys and using them for 'tech' advice. How much effort will it take me to ramp up?! I'm heavy into gold/miners, have followed those markets for years and think I know something. I found some room for some BTC and feel like I know nothing. I fear I'm in love with gold. It worries me some. My very modest foray into BTC was financed from my over-sized gold allocation. I don't know what any of it means. I'm not certain that my BTC are really in my possession. Can I add any other discomfort to the conversation? Ha.
    • WW
      Will W.
      17 April 2020 @ 12:46
      I'm sliding more and more into the Peter camp. I have been a bitcoin holder for many years, but have recently been scaling back my position, but I do plan on keeping smaller buy and hold position to see how this all plays out. I think I have developed bitcoin fatigue. I guess my rallying cry is wake me up when bitcoin has a trillion dollar market cap, when serious capital is allocated, and bitcoin can take its place as a more "real" macro asset.
    • RM
      Ron M.
      17 April 2020 @ 15:15
      As the Fed's balance sheet heads to $10T and our national debt approaches $30T, BTC is a no brainer as a speculative bet. At $125B market cap for BTC, it's tiny in comparison to gold's $10T market value. Gold may go up 3-5x and BTC has a probability to go up 10-50x as institutions and retail look to escape fiat currency inflation. That said, BTC could ultimately be banned by governments over time as they force their own GovernmentCoins on people. BTC vs. gold is all about relative risk/reward.
    • TW
      Thomas W.
      17 April 2020 @ 15:30
      I am a millennial too, though I am yet to buy an bitcoin yet. History is important to investing because you can understand how that asset behaves based on similar circumstances in the past. In this video most of those graphs date back decades and you will find similar such graphs from centuries ago. That information puts you in a position of strength. Human behaviour never really changes. Technology might influence our hopes and fears but fundamentally they have been and always will be the same. By no means am I saying don't invest in bitcoin because it is new - being ahead of the curve is an opportunity - but when people are scared they run to gold because it has stood the test of time. If you keep a diverse portfolio and recognise the strengths and weaknesses of each asset/class, then if you get caught wrong footed you will still be in a position of strength. Old and new can coexist perfectly.
    • TP
      Timothy P.
      17 April 2020 @ 16:51
      I'm with you on the Bitcoin front. One thing that I don't understand when people start talking about "what if govts ban it" and the like is how no one talks about Gold being completely ring-fenced. Gold is supposed to be this wonderous hedge, but under massive macro stress it hardly has moved. How many QE-Infinities do we need for a modest rally/breakout? My other argument against gold is government involvement. If its such a backstop against unsound money, why are govts issuing Gold coins from their treasuries? Wouldn't they love to not have Gold in the equation at all so they can abuse their printing press? Its that point that leads me to believe that Gold is completely ring-fenced by a small number of primary dealers and govt intervention. There is no fiat-busting mega rally in Gold, because its been defanged and put in its place. I know I'll get a lot of heat about this, but frankly when you have an asset that can be rehypothecated (warehouse storage receipts) without verification you're essentially recreating fiat currencies on a smaller scale. Much like the cladded tungsten bars found in the Jewelry district in New York City, you're going to have an event where a true assay of stored Gold will reveal a surprising number of faked bars -- and if that isn't enough, you'll have overstated reserves that don't exist in reality. Its hard to "stick it to the man" using Gold if "the man" has already made that avenue fruitless.
    • HC
      Hahns C.
      17 April 2020 @ 17:57
      The U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) is considering subpoenaing major tech companies like Apple, Google and Microsoft in search of taxpayers’ unreported cryptocurrency holdings. That’s according to a slide deck presentation from an IRS cyber training session, which details a number of ways the agency’s criminal investigators might find potential crypto tax cheats. “Issuance of a Grand Jury Subpoena should be considered for Apple, Google, and Microsoft for the Subject’s complete application download history,” says the slide deck prepared by James Daniels, the program manager for cyber crimes at the IRS’ criminal investigation unit. The IRS is coming for their pound of flesh that is accurately recorded on every transaction. Whether you are US Citizen or a TCN you will owe taxes and Uncle Same will not let up on getting what they think is their money. This includes all settled transactions. https://www.coindesk.com/irs-confirms-it-trained-staff-on-finding-crypto-wallets
    • SB
      Stephen B.
      17 April 2020 @ 19:24
      Also, don't dismiss real estate. At your age it can make a lot of sense. Sure, we will go through a brief period of devaluation and mortgages may be more difficult to obtain for a period but CB's are ultimately going to create an inflationary environment. If you can find the right property at the right price with the right financing, you are almost guaranteed to make high teen returns over the longer term. Nothing against gold and Bitcoin but its good to diversify one's portfolio.
    • WM
      Will M.
      18 April 2020 @ 14:16
      Collin, I did think your comment about "but f***, that's history" was a little off since I believe history is always a key top the future where gold is concerned, but you admitted to alcohol intake and I know how that works! I own an outsize chunk of metal and mining stock in gold (and silver) and yes I am some old guy too. HOWEVER, I am not a luddite when it comes to a speculative investment opportunity, and if Raoul Pal is sold on Bitcoin, then I am going to listen because I am the amateur and he is the professional. (I also like David Oliver of MSA views on Bitcoin from a momentum perspective). My concern here is why Bitcoin has not yet performed in this current chaos. I am with Peter Brandt and many others here, in this environment Bitcoin should have taken off and it hasn't. Lets see what happens in the next market leg down (if reality ever bites that is). Feels like Bitcoin needs to exceed 10k to re-demonstrate its potential. However after one more plunge below 4k it may indeed be at a value where it is one of the best speculations ever and I will partake for certain at that point. Finally, I draw attention to Hahn's comment below. The IRS are VERY aware that folks have been trading bitcoin and not reporting profits or disclosing ownership and they will intercede, especially if it soars again. I noticed the tax form question this year about cryptocurrency. I know someone who made a bunch on the coin a few years back and I am pretty certain they did not disclose the profits. As those who were holding unreported Swiss accounts found out just a few years back, the IRS will go to where the money is being made to seek their pound of flesh. They will make the penalties draconian if you didn't report. So be careful out there.
    • BE
      B E.
      18 April 2020 @ 17:39
      I'd rather just buy silver or copper futures at the deflationary bottom, same type potential move higher, without the BTC risk...
  • PC
    Paul C.
    18 April 2020 @ 17:37
    Old school wisdom... beautiful in it's simplicity! Really enjoyed the interview & sets us up well to monitor price action next week. Thanks Peter, Raoul & RV.
  • BE
    B E.
    18 April 2020 @ 17:25
    SOOOO GOOD!
  • OO
    Oliver O.
    17 April 2020 @ 20:01
    As mentioned in all the posts below, gold has historically been a store of value in turbulent times. Bitcoin can also fill this void as well as serve as a means of trade as we continue to move towards a digital economy. Why is it that silver, the other traditional store of value, continues to be neglected in this conversation? It seems to me that silver can serve the same purposes as the above, and something that is accessible to the masses (developing countries/EMs who will almost certainly face severe monetary problems in the upcoming global recession). As silver continues to float near its lows, doesn't this represent a good buying opportunity?
    • DS
      David S.
      17 April 2020 @ 20:52
      Wait for the move first. You do not need to buy at the bottom. dls
    • DW
      Dean W.
      17 April 2020 @ 23:40
      Silver doesn’t behave in the same manner as gold, IMO, because it’s stock is much greater than gold. There’s simply a lot more of it available. Note that you don’t hear about central banks buying large amounts of silver in the way that they do gold. It seems unlikely that there will ever be a currency based on it. It could certainly go up from here and I own a decent amount of it physically as well as in SLV. But I don’t expect it to perform in exactly the way I hope gold will in the event that there’s high inflation.
    • CS
      Christopher S.
      18 April 2020 @ 08:39
      The silver bugs will point out that historically silver has been used as money more than gold has
    • WM
      Will M.
      18 April 2020 @ 14:32
      I bought a big chunk at $16 fully aware it could go down to less than 12. But eventually its going to soar into the 20s let along above that. If it drops below $10 I will have got in way too early, my error, no regrets.
  • JV
    Jan V.
    17 April 2020 @ 18:25
    BTC didn't catch a safe haven bid yet. That doesn't surprise me. Many people don't trust it (yet). The next catalyst should be the halving in 3 weeks time. It doesn't seem priced in. But it should have a profound impact. Miners have high fixed costs. They sell most of the BTC reward to cover these costs. The number of BTC up for selling by miners will be cut in half. I tend to focus on supply right now in stead of (safe haven) demand.
    • AB
      Andrew B.
      17 April 2020 @ 21:27
      Theres an awesome podcast from Pomp on this. The halving should put inefficient miners out of business and theres gonna be a lot of sell pressure from them through the summer until they finally throw in the towel. Look for a nice price move after that.
    • JV
      Jan V.
      18 April 2020 @ 07:36
      @Andrew: interesting! Do you have a link to this podcast? Would like to check it out.
    • WM
      Will M.
      18 April 2020 @ 14:29
      Andrew B that one of the best arguments I have heard for a boost later on. I still just need to understand why bitcoin hasn't performed in the recent crash while gold effectively held....
  • CT
    Crispim T.
    17 April 2020 @ 10:44
    Gold is fine, but Bitcoin is better. This is such a huge change that most people haven't even started to adapt to it, less alone have the ability to imagine a future with BTC being the standard - or in worst case cenario - a very strong store of value. It's been 11.5 years and BTC naysayers are still thinking "this time it will be different". They'll probably be saying the same in 10 years. Be smart and DYOR and you'll get it.
    • WM
      Will M.
      18 April 2020 @ 14:17
      Bitcoin has not yet performed in this crisis Crispim WHY?
    • WM
      Will M.
      18 April 2020 @ 14:19
      Again I am not anti bitcoin as a speculative investment, I just need to see the delivery post the initial mania phase to show it was not just a one off mania.
  • OS
    Oliver S.
    18 April 2020 @ 12:20
    Great stuff. Good to see Peter again.
  • NP
    Nick P.
    18 April 2020 @ 10:38
    Awesome chat guys! Get Peter back again, please.
  • AS
    Ash S.
    18 April 2020 @ 10:19
    What a great interview and what a great person Peter seems to be. For Christmas can we have a tour of Raoul's house please?
  • Sv
    Sid v.
    17 April 2020 @ 17:35
    Peter, are you quarantined to a closet?
    • KB
      Kirk B.
      17 April 2020 @ 19:02
      Peter seems to be in a bunker with "No Trespassing" signs to his left and right (plus an "Area 51" warning sign behind him). Hmm. Perhaps, this underscores his decision to get completely out of equities for now.
    • DK
      D K.
      18 April 2020 @ 03:13
      The backgrounds of peoples places on these videos is always fascinating.
    • DB
      Doug B.
      18 April 2020 @ 10:00
      Makes you wonder if he has been long corn ...
  • ar
    andrew r.
    17 April 2020 @ 22:17
    If the best way to own gold -- in store of value terms -- is physical gold, what is the analogous way to own Bitcoin? Do you have to keep it on a physical hard drive somewhere? What is the safest way to do that? Sorry for the basic questions.
    • MM
      Michael M.
      17 April 2020 @ 23:18
      Indeed, self custody is always the way to go. They make these custom made flash drives to securely store your Bitcoin 'keys' offline. Have a look at a product called Ledger Nano as a starting point.
    • BP
      Bruno P.
      17 April 2020 @ 23:58
      You buy it on an exchange (coinbase, gemini, binance, kraken, etc) and then have two options: 1) less secure: leave it on the exchange. But have in mind that you will not hold the private key so technically you are trusting the exchange to keep your money safe 2) more secure: buy an hardware wallet (ledger, trezor), move btc out of exchange to wallet. Probably more technically challenging, but no one can separate you from your money.
    • RE
      Renato E.
      18 April 2020 @ 06:31
      Never leave your Bitcoins on the exchange - never! If the exchange gets hacked, its gone. As soon as you buy them, transfer the coins to your wallet. A hardware wallet would be pretty safe, but if you buy bitcoin for the first time, buy just for a handful of dollars and transfer the coins to a software wallet on your mobile/PC/macOS/whatever. Learn how to use the exchange interface, how to protect your account on the exchange (i recommend kraken, they allow you to verify every single configuration change with an OTP (one-time password). Buying, selling, changing security settings - all need an OTP for confirmation (2 factor authentication). You would install an app on your mobile that generates an OTP automatically for the exchange logins. I also recommend to install the software wallet on a PC/macOS and the OTP app on the mobile. In that way, an attacker would have to compromise both devices at the same time - very unlikely. If you need more tips on how to secure your pc/mac, let me know. If you are a beginner: start with small amounts and learn the basics. If you get the hang of it, buy more and transfer your coins to a hardware wallet (ledger, trezor).
  • MC
    Melson C.
    18 April 2020 @ 05:57
    He looks a little like Bill Gates haha
  • jl
    john l.
    18 April 2020 @ 05:33
    Great interview. Entertained by the dig out of nowhere on the EW peeps. Chartists going after each other! (sounded like in a friendly way but would love to see the WWE match : ). I wonder if his thinking on gold helped lean Raoul one way. I know I have been in the same spot Raoul mentions as to how much to make a commitment now or possibly wait as some EWers saying drop ahead before later take off. Peter may have pushed me to not waiting so much for another substantial drop. Will think on it.
  • js
    j s.
    17 April 2020 @ 17:18
    Does this fool not realize the fed will just buy stocks?
    • HC
      Hahns C.
      17 April 2020 @ 17:24
      I'm sorry - he is not a fool!!
    • DT
      Delvix T.
      17 April 2020 @ 20:27
      You do not do what he has done for around 35 years successfully if you are a fool...
    • jl
      john l.
      18 April 2020 @ 05:18
      Japanese central bank been buying on the Nikkei for a while now.
  • BP
    Bryce P.
    18 April 2020 @ 04:58
    Peter is always great. Please do this more with him.
  • JA
    Jordan A.
    18 April 2020 @ 02:09
    I'm pretty sure Raul is right about dollar yen.
  • MW
    Max W.
    18 April 2020 @ 01:46
    Great interview. I especially appreciate the insight with trading bitcoin with moving averages. Very interesting
  • JF
    Javier F.
    18 April 2020 @ 01:28
    Very much enjoyed the conversation! Peter is amazing!
  • PL
    Patrick L.
    17 April 2020 @ 23:57
    Why treasury futures - can you not go long the 5yr treasury on spot for the same effect? Noob question, of course... thanks!
    • CH
      Charlie H.
      18 April 2020 @ 01:21
      Leverage
  • gk
    garrison k.
    18 April 2020 @ 00:58
    Terrific interview ... Thanks for bringing PB on board ...
  • SN
    Shmuel N.
    18 April 2020 @ 00:55
    It wasn't an awesome idea selling everything last Friday....
  • EL
    Eric L.
    18 April 2020 @ 00:51
    Bitcoin turned me on to Peter who turned me on to RealVision and Raoul turned Peter on to bitcoin so I guess I'm in the right place.
  • RC
    Rex C.
    18 April 2020 @ 00:11
    "long time listener, first time caller" watched on ton of videos here and this is one of my favorites
  • DW
    Dean W.
    17 April 2020 @ 23:59
    I love the title of this video - The Charts of Truth! And Peter did deliver Charts of Truth. As an amateur chartist, it’s great to see Pros at work, learned a few things. Very enjoyable interview.
  • DS
    David S.
    17 April 2020 @ 20:59
    If miners were not paid in Bitcoins, how much would a transaction cost in $US? Thanks. DLS
    • JP
      John P.
      17 April 2020 @ 22:22
      This is a somewhat complex question. Transactions can be priced manually and vary based on the size of BTC moved and the desire of processing time for the sender. Miners confirm transactions roughly every 10 minutes. However, you can submit a transaction and have it stay in a que for hours if you're seeking a lower fee. While you can regularly find people saying it costs $25 to move their BTC, you can also find transactions where 50+ million was moved for under $1. It's simply a matter of how long you prefer to wait. Presently this makes BTC less usable for small transactions. There are many current projects working to expand payment channels built on top of bitcoin to make transactions cheap and scalable. Also of note, most projections have miners still being paid in BTC out through 2,100.
    • DS
      David S.
      17 April 2020 @ 23:53
      John P. - Thank you so much for your comment. It is what I wanted to know. Paying for mining in BTCs is also a cost in the dilution of BTC value. It seems as if it will not be too prohibitive in my lifetime. Thanks again. Be safe. DLS
  • TS
    Theodoros S.
    17 April 2020 @ 19:55
    Just a thought. What if after June people go back to their consumption habits and with a higher frequency, companies consolidate and more monopolies get in play and the economy of USA returns back and a vaccine in November comes around. Do you still think the bear market cant be surpassed and replaced with a small bull which with inflation will eventually become a great bull and then we get to the bubble.
    • mw
      michael w.
      17 April 2020 @ 20:36
      Will people continue to spend like they use to? Most of the population is nearly tapped out. Consumer debt was at ATH even before Coronavirus.
    • AB
      Andrew B.
      17 April 2020 @ 21:25
      How would this happen at 15%ish unemployment? People cant pay rent, how are they supposed to spend even close to what they did in Jan 2020. No dice
  • YB
    Yair B.
    17 April 2020 @ 16:47
    Anyone else curious about Raoul's bar in the background?
    • MH
      M.F. H.
      17 April 2020 @ 16:59
      I have been wondering about that.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      17 April 2020 @ 17:13
      Its my house!
    • YB
      Yair B.
      17 April 2020 @ 17:42
      Buy bonds, wear diamonds, have a bar in your house! :)
    • JD
      John D.
      17 April 2020 @ 19:10
      Raoul's crib looks 100. Can't say I can make the same statement about Pete's place. ;)
    • DS
      David S.
      17 April 2020 @ 21:12
      Mr. Pal needs to have a space to entertain as part of his business. Extraordinarily well designed. I was at Mr. Mondavi home in Napa many years ago. It was also set up on a business entertainment scale. Since there are many hotels in the area, he only had one bedroom. I hope Little Cayman has a good hotel for Mr. Pal's sake. DLS
    • DS
      David S.
      17 April 2020 @ 21:21
      I googled Little Cayman. Beautiful spot. Plenty of hotels for regular times. Well done. DLS
  • JR
    Joe R.
    17 April 2020 @ 21:19
    More Peter!
  • KG
    Kos G.
    17 April 2020 @ 19:35
    I've recently revisited interview with Milton Berg! Could you please interview him once again about the current situation!!! Thank you in advance!
  • KT
    Kai T.
    17 April 2020 @ 18:50
    This was a fantastic interview. I particularly liked the charts put on screen. Please get Stuart and other high-quality chartists on Real Vision on a weekly basis.
  • ND
    Noel D.
    17 April 2020 @ 13:58
    Don't know about other subscribers, but I, for one, miss the cue ball on Raoul's pool table. Where did it go? What did it (and its disappearance) symbolize? Over the past week, the drama, tension and anticipation has been building... will we ever see the cue ball again? 🤨
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      17 April 2020 @ 17:15
      haha...I'll brining back but he had to go into quarantine as he looked a bit pale... ;-)
    • SS
      S S.
      17 April 2020 @ 17:32
      In John Virgo's voice for all you Snooker fans...WHERE IS THE CUEBALL GOING?
  • JP
    John P.
    17 April 2020 @ 17:24
    Good stuff. Keep him coming back.
  • MH
    M.F. H.
    17 April 2020 @ 16:59
    Great stuff. Particularly to hear you talk about your respective processes. Would be interested if you could do some videos exclusively about process.
  • TP
    Timothy P.
    17 April 2020 @ 16:42
    Always enjoy hearing from Peter Brandt, such a classic technician -- good stuff! My personal take on Bitcoin, if anyone wants another theory -- After the mid-March liquidity run, (by the way, proving that BTC is reflecting its role as a store-of-value just like Gold, which declined also), we've gone Bullish on the prop indicator sets I use. (Since March 27th, 2020) This to me implies sideways-wind-up, where my upper target is above 7200. As I've said before, providing more detail means someone is paying me, so I'll leave it at that. I think on the macro side we're going to see deflation followed by an inflationary impulse. A stronger dollar seems to hamper progress in Bitcoin, but that is a looser correlation that could uncouple in the future. One thing to remember is that Bitcoin has a history of not violating the prior mega-rally tops as it ascends the log chart. This is a useful measure to understand where deep pockets of bids are resting as we grind upwards. Good interview, I enjoyed it immensely.
  • PT
    Peter T.
    17 April 2020 @ 16:38
    if you really want to chart the price of BTC you have to understand the evolution of the technological advancements in he mining equipment. 2 ways to get BTC 1) Buy it 2) Mine it. The cost per terahash and cost of energy to run your equipment has fallen dramatically . All the while the hash rate has risen dramatically ................
  • HC
    Hahns C.
    17 April 2020 @ 16:10
    Great interview you are both so smart - I love the wisdom of you gentlemen, especially the knowledge of having traded through other convulsions in the market. The FED has seemingly has stabilized the market for the time being. Do you see the chart patterns - head and shoulders and wedges playing out sooner rather than later? If later, there must be another "crisis" contributing event in our "Macro" future that has not yet started. This unforeseen macro crisis event could be the World Bank voting to ditch the USD as the global reserve currency and convert all currencies to SDRs thus devaluing the USD. It could be a kinetic war between super powers. OR, perhaps a genetic modification of the current pandemic that sickens the world all over again same as the 1918 Spanish Flu came in waves. If sooner is the reality is it because the economic fundamentals are so structurally dysfunctional the impending convulsions are eminent - yes? Your opinions matter a lot to us all. Blessings.
  • jk
    john k.
    17 April 2020 @ 15:12
    Great conversation. Interesting to see Peter compare corn, oil at generational lows while at same time s&p forming that head and shoulders top that looks ready to fall off a cliff. Would be interested to hear whether we are looking at the beginning stages of stagflation because of the expansion of the money supply and what could cause a hyperinflationary environment like Zimbabwe in 2004. If a real possibility, perhaps buying commodities today makes sense? Long bitcoin too ...
  • SU
    SADIK U.
    17 April 2020 @ 15:04
    Great interview, thanks a lot. Raoul what is your thought about USDTRY? I am watching all of the videos that you guys make but no one is talking about it.
  • TR
    Travis R.
    17 April 2020 @ 14:59
    Excellent interview. Interesting thoughts on Gold COTs.
  • JA
    Johnny A.
    17 April 2020 @ 14:26
    Hey! I tweet you that head shoulder inside a rising wedge weeks ago, Raoul!! lol :) Here's the link if you're curious xoxox https://twitter.com/EntropicBanana/status/1249873651069071360
  • JK
    James K.
    17 April 2020 @ 13:50
    Great interview
  • BW
    Brett W.
    17 April 2020 @ 13:38
    Great interview
  • SS
    S S.
    17 April 2020 @ 13:14
    @Peter Brandt. When you traded the equity market in 1929 as a young trader who would have thought you would see a similar market setup in 2020. Amazing times 🤣🤣
  • SB
    Stephane B.
    17 April 2020 @ 12:46
    Can the SP go down knowing that the Fed will do everything to support it ? Is this even technically feasible ?
  • PB
    Paul B.
    17 April 2020 @ 05:33
    The way I see it the Markets are hedging their bets on MMT
    • CB
      Clifford B.
      17 April 2020 @ 12:21
      Money printer go BRRRRRRRRRRRR
  • IP
    IDA P.
    17 April 2020 @ 11:52
    Raoul, I see the negative interest rates, but I ask you if you think they will have to abolish cash from the system? o impose capital controls? money will leave the banks for physical goods if rates go negative
    • MK
      Michael K.
      17 April 2020 @ 12:09
      I bet they will not leave. There will be a lot of marketing and segmentation to produce expiring consumption tokens.
  • NL
    Nicholas L.
    17 April 2020 @ 11:51
    Love the info and the friendly banter between Peter and Raoul!
  • RM
    Robert M.
    17 April 2020 @ 11:42
    Is Raoul at his home? Looks decent.
  • SS
    S S.
    17 April 2020 @ 11:40
    Peter Brandt is a real legend and one of the few people of his age that I know that is changing with the times. Just check out his airpods and ability to embrace Cryptos like Bitcoin and trade them. He has no bias. He just trades the chart. Amazing. @Peter Brandt - Do you even lift bro? (For those of you who don't know, Peter has been trolling others on Twitter with this comment and it is hilarious).
  • JY
    Jon Y.
    17 April 2020 @ 11:31
    I wonder whats the probability of Bitcoin making a large move down or up in the next 2 months...
  • GL
    G L.
    17 April 2020 @ 10:32
    Loved the interview - thank you!
  • yc
    yu c.
    17 April 2020 @ 10:24
    Great interview. Look forward to more of Peter👍
  • AM
    Alastair M.
    17 April 2020 @ 09:39
    Wonderful perspective from Peter articulated in such a refreshing manner
  • BF
    Bret F.
    17 April 2020 @ 07:17
    Have to wonder. USA talking about opening back up. What if Virus escalates 10fold. Asia command and control. Maybe EEM actually gets washed out with a foreseeable future... EEM monthly chart could be triangle. Definitely not been consences for years
  • DS
    David S.
    17 April 2020 @ 06:59
    Thanks, Always a pleasure to listen to Mr. Brandt. DLS