Comments
Transcript
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MYI can't remember how many times I watched this interview. Great views.
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JNExcellent , sensible , pragmatic insight, thanks Dan , love the fireside format chat with Raoul , you’ve nailed it again RV !
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JGIt's not bitcoin. It's the blockchain techology. Bitcoin is incredibly flawed, but there are other associated technologies that will succeed and displace Bitcoin.
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HHLove that no one ever talks about money laundering with bitcoin or crypto and how bad actors use it to get their money out of countries. Really odd
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MKI was a nocoiner until recently when a friend simply exchanged $10 for BTC for me and helped me set up a new Green wallet. Insanely easy. And it had nothing to do with SWIFT or Mnuchin or visa or MasterCard. It broke my crypto cherry. This stuff is for real. Don’t claim to be anti bitcoin until you’ve at least transacted in it.
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RH1. Buy bitcoin. 2. Hide key. 3 Get hit by bus. 4. Bye bitcoin.
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AEman all these comments are surprisingly negative on here - thought it was a great interview!
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MERaoul, Thanks for bringing the old RV back. Excellent.
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TSVery interesting interview, however still I can not be persuaded that Dan Tapiero really understands the difference between investments and technology. Specifically the difference between value investing and technology. No offence but the main point in enterprenership and Capitalism societies is trust and investing in corporate that have tangible, real assets. However there is no doubt that the next 15 years digitialization of currency will happen but that doesn't mean FIAT currency will die. A good alternative but not an investment bet in my opinion.
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LBWho is Satoshi Nakamoto anyway? Great interview and great prognostications about the future of bitcoin, but... personally, as much as I agree this could be life changing in due course like the internet has been: how can we blindly follow the bitcoin road when we know NOTHING about its creator(s)! When will the true/real Satoshi reveal him/her/itself? Until then, call me skeptical, I think this is nothing more than the latest extraordinary popular delusion of humanity - even if I do own some, just in case!
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JNA secure, independent transaction ledger technology is obviously an important invention. But why does Bitcoin represent the value of this architecture? If Bitcoin disappears, the ledger technology would still exist and could be applied to other things (as it already is). Bitcoin appears to be just one (clever) use for the architecture.
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CBToo many people are confusing the value blockchain technology itself with the "value" of bitcoin. Too many question marks with Bitcoin. Mystery character invents it, then puts 10% in his own wallet and no one knows who it is and no one seems bothered that this one person/group can crash the market at any time? Massive waste of power, Hashgraph is much more efficient, faster and gets the same job done. Then to top it all off the claim is that it is decentralized. Yet 81% of the mining hashpower is located in China? 50% attack anyone? https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/mining/pools/ Bitcoin trading is bigger fool theory at the highest level.
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KEI'm not a crypto person, but I watched every crypto video on RV with the intention of getting convinced on why I should buy BTC other than to speculate, I still don't get it. Dan says it is a great invention and because of that it can be worth much more, but why? I get the truth concept, but that is the blockchain, not Bitcoin. For example, if tomorrow someone solves a great problem using this concept (blockchain), why should bitcoin go higher? During crypto week everyone had different opinions on why to buy bitcoin, but everything seems fake/wish except for a digital speculating asset. My guess is that the hype and increase in price in the last two years is not people running away from fiat, but a signal of excess liquidity in markets trying to search for yield/appreciation. What I mean is that whether you are a PM or a trader who due to the changes in markets is struggling to make good return in the market, then you shift to what is appreciating and now predicate for others to buy because it can be valued to a million, but not sure why. That is what I heard on this interview
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MTExecutive Summary: I don't understand Bitcoin. Thousands and thousands of smart people put work into it, that's why it has value. If you're under 30 you need to buy then you will understand it. I'ts gonna be amazing but I don't understand it. Exponential. I don't understand it but Bitcoin needs more sales people to push more people in. I can't even form one congruent argument but you need to be in it. Bitcoin is a "truth machine! trust it. Bitcoin is invincible and the most secure thing ever- until the first quantum computer hacks the blockchain? It's bigger than anything anyone has ever seen. The internet was invented so bitcoin can exist. I wouldn't buy a snickers bar from this guy...
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PJSo is Bitcoin the next Netscape or Google or neither?
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NIIf bitcoin owners can generate enough hype to garner new buyers, the price will certainly go up. I totally concede that. If you're nimble enough, you might get out before the last buyer is in and make gains. My problem with bitcoin is that, unlike gold, silver, platinum, ..., you can't do anything useful with it. Metals are not only a good medium of exchange, they are a store of value because they have industrial uses (jewelry, dentistry, electronics, defense, ...) Perhaps people will exchange bitcoins at weddings someday, but I think gold bands will keep their place in that forum. That doesn't mean that someone won't invent a useful application that uniquely runs on top of bitcoin, but that also seems unlikely as newer, better, comes to market in the crypto world. In the end, bitcoin is a very expensive to maintain solution to a math problem. So far no bitcoin advocates have been able to cite any value in that. Perhaps bitcoin can be like jewelry where people just covet holding their expensive math solution like they covet a gold chain around their neck (both are irrational) but call me skeptical about people coveting bitcoin writ large until it can demonstrate a useful application.
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BGI am sorry, but he doesn't make a cogent argument to purchase bitcoin other than its this great new technology that he doesn't really understand,(his words) but we all got to own it. I have owned a couple coins for a long time, don't plan to buy any more. Will definitely sell, if it ever reaches $250,000 :)
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TWDan & Raoul - thanks for your thoughts on Bitcoin & cryptocurrencies. All well and good. My thoughts: we don't need a mathematical solution for trust. We simply have to execute the sons-of-bitches that are responsible for theft and/or (to be most charitable) failure to fulfill fiduciary responsibilities. Slowly, for example by public stoning, beating, ants, televised live burial, or some version of sharia law. Because that is what is going to happen. Not by clueless mobs, but by thoughtful people like me, who have actually contributed something to society. It is that simple. The thieves don't realize it but they are fucked, and they will pay the price. Also, what makes you think Satoshi is a person, as opposed to the Fed, Treasury, CIA, or mathematicians at the Naval Research Laboratories? It is pretty obvious to me Bitcoin and other shitcoins are empirical trial balloons to see how real human beings react to digital currencies, which are of course inevitable as the best-of-all-taxable worlds. When in doubt, read Voltaire.
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SHLove Dan’s perspective, but feel he’s betting on the wrong horse. The mining of bitcoin is idiotic, wasting energy and time. In my view Hashgraph, or something similar to it, will win the race. 😐
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yza bunch of loaded questions: so bitcoins will be fully mined in another 100+ years time. If this statement is correct/true, what happens once all the bitcoins are mined? (or should i say when will people start pre-empting this issue?) will miners just stop mining? what's their reward to continue mining if no more bitcoins are issued? how much computer power will we need to continue to verify the bitcoin transactions every one for the next 100+ yrs? will we even produce sufficient electricity to keep up with the mining requirement? is the govt going to regulate electricity use for bitcoin (and therefore limits its growth)? will green tech/solar power breakthroughs etc help (will we at the same time solve the global warming issues due to bitcoin electricity use (kill 2 birds with one stone...what a wonderful outcome). Quantum computing or leaps in computing may solve this electricity use?
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AII get the BTC value, but will there be an alternative blockchain to solve all the bitcoin weaknesses (e.g speed of transaction)
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SSCrypto transaction fees are very high and not I'm sure what Bitcoin buys me? It seems like the comments by Dan "just buy some" come with the concern he said, we can't really explain why you should, but you should. Then late in the interview Dan indicated that Bitcoin may NOT be the mechanism in the crypto space, as so many people working on developing new ideas and framework. If that is true or possible, Bitcoin could get slaughtered once everyone figures it out it's not bitcoin. The big boys like Dan, will be long gone before any of us know it. I really like Dan and his presentation, just not sure if that is best reason to buy?
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SVThere is something bigger, more valuable and more beautiful that has not been discussed but has been enabled by the technology underpinning Bitcoin, and that's the Internet of Value. The paradigm hurdle of Bitcoin is really threefold: (1) decentralized incentive structures, (2) elimination of counterparty risk (Byzantine's General problem), (3) Value expression by ecosystems that are not nations (non-geographical). These three concepts together enable the possibility of an Internet of Value in which disruption, competition, and value can be manifested without enablers, value can be transferred (expressed) as easily, globally, as email is today. interoperability between ledgers, liquidity pools, tokenized digital assets, is the real gem that will emerge from the Bitcoin seed, not Bitcoin. Not to say that Bitcoin will go the way of the dodo, simply saying that consensus value determination and exchange will dictate relative value. Imagine every human on Earth being able to issue a digital security in themselves, increase it's value to others, receive and leverage that value in exchange for goods and services, all on top of platforms that support this most fundamental forms of human expression. The Internet of Value will be transformative from a socioeconomic perspective because it breaks down barriers preventing people from interacting globally without using centralized (risk laden) 3rd parties from introducing cost and friction into the transaction. Please educate yourself on the Interledger Protocol and how that's only the beginning in connecting ecosystems. Bitcoin will have to continually prove itself to support it's consensus value, as will all value ecosystems.
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VUBTC is simply a store of value against geopolitical risk that's more liquid that Gold (trust shares/physical/miners etc.) as it provides censorship resistance against high geopolitical risk. If you're a macro investor geopolitical risk is important to consider and BTC (rather than Au) can help you achieve it efficiently. Other crypto assets are different, they are not like BTC but are highly (positively) correlated to it because their protocol frameworks are derivatives of the bitcoin network.
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PGThe supply side in Bitcoin is fixed. Every 10 minutes there are 12.5 new bitcoins minted (+transaction fees) which are distributed to the miners according to their respective market share (if you have 10% of the total hashrate you get 10% of the reward). Bitcoin mining will over time move to places with extremely cheap electricity. Big upward price moves in BTC will temporarily let high cost miners participate at a profit, but the price rise will attract more and more miners as long as the margins are big enough. After some point, enough miners have joined for the margins to have been squeezed so much that the high opex miners are forced out of business again. More users and more transactions mean more transaction fees. This is a positive thing for the miners. However, when the margins are small the miners are forced to sell a larger part of their rewarded coins to cover their expenses which therefore puts a bigger selling pressure on the market. That's the only relation I can see between the mining business and the market value.
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TDHow should an investor consider the costs associated with mining i.e. capital, equipment, energy, labor, etc.? Do these costs have a significant impact the mining process, the large number of transactions to maintain viability of this decentralized system and the bitcoin value currently and in the future? Will having the supply and the increasing number of users and more and more transactions diminish bitcoin value?
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RMIf I were to spend 500 hours over the next few months like Dan did on this topic, where should I start? Anyone ever listen to Hidden Forces? I feel like Demitri has done some good podcast on this possibly? Who else? What should I read, listen to, watch?
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THDan is right about the value of bitcoin *as an invention*. It is hard to find a bigger disruptor than bitcoin and the idea of full decentralization, that it proved to be possible. To me, it is clear, that within the next 10 years, the vast majority of the services, that deal with value transfer, will be re-implemented in a completely decentralized manner. New business models will be invented to support the decentralized model. Rewrite of massive systems accompanied by new business models... if that's not a big deal, then I don't know what is! Whether bitcoin-the-currency is eventually a big deal, remains to be seen. If it proves to be a big deal, it will probably survive as "digital gold", not as a payment means. The transaction management model of the bitcoin network makes it unsuitable for immediately final transactions, which payment transactions necessarily need to be. Lightning network (which is apparently not taking off too impressively...) and other "layer 2" solutions do not solve this problem. There's also a problem with bitcoin as digital gold. It is scarce only within the bitcoin network community. Nothing prevents other such competing communities from emerging. Numerous alt-coin communities exist already. When the asset creation stops at bitcoin network and there is a continuing need for such assets, why not set up a new network, maybe for some specific purpose? Bitcoin's problem thus is, that there may be 100 near-similar networks some day. With "analog gold", the "problem" is the opposite: for each truly scarce physical ounce of gold, there are maybe 100 contracts promising to deliver the ounce. When the music stops and true value is sought, 99% of the gold assets, i.e. the synthetic ones, vanish and the remaining real asset becomes very much sought after. In the end, it is the true scarcity, that separates the real stores of value from wannabes.
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SSA trust-less decentralized system is only good if it offers true anonymity from those who wish to impose control. (who'd he work under again?) Counter party risks like- ISP's, Fiat bank accts, CX's run by the CB rats or other clowns who have ALL user data, plus metadata crumbs.....this new white horse technology holds either great promise or great sorrow for whatever liberty we have remaining....so new investors -be careful what you wish for. True change can only come from the hearts of the masses - maybe Bitcoin is akin to that long-lived bird that cyclically regenerates or is born again from the flames.... Wonder what Saul Alinsky's take would be on this discussion? I am more of a 'middle way' kind of guy, the path of least harm may not be fully visible while the kindling is still building in this epic global CB led mess. If we are at the end of Globalization -then multi-polar societies and/or communities of people will collectively and democratically decide on their own unique methods of exchange with no official legislation, ivory tower mandates or otherwise. True Bayesian theorem. I just wish there was a equity preserver that would act as a bridge to whatever 'is' universally 'next'....ha...(what's up Grant!)
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BNGreat interview Raoul & RV! Like Dan’s honest, thought provoking, humble direct openness to accept complexities of the crypto market ecosystem and its rapid rate of change. Great interview Raoul, Dan &RV!
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APAnybody have a link for the gold/silver/btc valuation from Plan B(?) on twitter Raoul mentions?
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HKEven as a bitcoin and gold investor, I feel uncomfortable with bitcoin promoters that show a messianic conviction without adequately addressing very real existential problems. One shouldn’t tout bitcoin for an hour without discussing problems of energy consumption and the halvening. IMHO halvening may have a negative impact on some miners ability to continue if bitcoin’s price does not appreciate significantly. The newest Bitmain 7nm ASIC(custom board for mining) is only a 28.6% improvement in power efficiency. Possibly EUV lithography which is only coming on line now will provide faster less energy consumptive chips to keep the show going, but these chips will be an expensive capital outlay for the miners.
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DJ1. Security truth machine = precisely why governments will oppose this invention if it gets in the way of their ability to control the masses. Governments have armies with advanced weapons, how can the bitcoin system defend itself from that? So multi trillion valuation is never reached. However, there’s $ to be made until the tipping point is reached. 2. No one talks about how the miners stay incentivized to maintain the network once the last bitcoin is created. I suppose this is because it’s such a long way off (2140) however still a big problem for de centralization. Debasement in some form logically takes place at said point thus making the security truth machine not so perfect.
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NHHilarious reading all the comments. Amazed by how many are so short sighted or short term but trying to learn about macro investing. Bitcoin is polarized - you either get it or dont. But for people who dont, please dont throw out idiot comments when all you did is probably read a few hours or watch the cnbc news. You absolutely know nothing about Bitcoin. Dan spent more than 500hrs and still know little about Bitcoin, and yet he is still humble and acknowled that. Be humble, keep an open mind if you want to succeed in macro.investing. P.s. quiz, do you even know what is the difference between Bitcoin v.s. bitcoin 😛
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ETEnjoyable interview to listen to but short on concrete thoughts. To sum up Dan Tapiero's train of thought: "Bitcoin is an entirely new technological paradigm that has no parallels. It will open up many economic avenues so everyone should own some percentage as part of their overall portfolio." One thing I don't get and I don't believe he adequately addresses is how the development of altcoins will impact Bitcoin liquidity in his view? He also says, "It [BTC] can't go to zero. And he [WSJ author] probably would say that now, too" But it's been noted countless times that Bitcoin protocol is very energy inefficient in scaling. Who is to say in 5 years or a decade that a more efficient protocol with smart contract capabilities won't become more popular and liquidity will shift. No doubt that today Bitcoin has the liquidity advantage compared to other coins, but I don't see why that has to hold indefinitely other than simply the "track record" as Dan T. put it.
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GRHere's a thought.......Fed prints money to buy all the bitcoin available and acts as global overseer for the blockchain. They have now bought their way into analysing every transaction via the blockchain's audit trail. Big brother here we come.
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DSIs Bitcoin or blockchain the real invention? DLS
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NvMisleading headline as this has little to do with macro. Great Bitcoin chat
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AMDan is the man!
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SSWhat about Government Intervention? If I have this right, France has just passed 3% tax on internet sales, which is going to slow down growth and capitalism, as governments are starved for more tax revenue to cover their irresponsible asses, Many US States now charging sales tax, etc, etc. Bitcoin, et al., certainly appears to be the new future, but how the hell can we count/bet on this, knowing the government is going to find a way to screw it up? The blockchain can and will be tracked, not so much for crimes (that will be the news narrative) but to tax the hell out of everything. Not sure any guest on RV can really and truly discuss this. The government will be reactionary only after it all gets going like crazy. Excellent interview by the way!
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MHRaoul the jacket, pants, and sneakers are brilliant! love the discussion
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AHone of my fav interviews on RV.. and thats saying a LOT.. bravo
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ABI agree 100% Ash C, Dan's background speaks for itself, as Raoul mentioned he worked for Stan Druckenmiller, the best Macro Investor ever, Dan's is on the money big time here........look forward to discussing post the May 22 halving.......
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ACI think Dan's Bitcoin description is brilliant, his valuation metric is outstanding [I.E. if the Bitcoin network was to be set-up by a corporation today, it would cost way more than it's current mkt cap] and coining the innovation as the "Truth Machine" is so on the money. People need to respect Dan's view he has had 30 years of macro & value investing......
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RSIMHO this guy hasn’t got a clue what Bitcoin really is.
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PNDan's insistence that he doesn't understand all of bitcoin is a good sign of humility, the willingness to learn, and the fact that he probably gets it better than most people. Yet a lot of you people are hammering him for it...
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RPIt's very interesting here to see the comments section - nothing splits peoples opinions more than bitcoin but art Real Vision we dont shy from giving alternative ideas. Even our first piece of content included a discussion about the merits of bitcoin. It is part of our DNA because it represents an alternative future of finance, in as much as gold does too. We support debate about both. They are not mutually exclusive. What I found fascinating about Dan is he has 30 years experience in macro investing and worked for Julian Robertson, Stan Druckenmiller, Stevie Cohen, Graham Capital, Mike Steinhardt and like so many well known and highly regarded macro investors has gravitated towards bitcoin and the digitisation space, where they perceive the risk/reward to be the most favourable in the world. So far, that has proven right but as we all know, past performance is no indicator of future performance. What is important to note is Dan's reluctance to suggest he understands the space in its fullness. The level of complexity from the deep cryptography, technology, mathematics, engineering and maybe even more so the philosophical forecasting and analysis make this extreme challenging for anyone. The macro world is similar - the levels of complexity are frankly absurd, but the job of a great macro thinker is to make a simple framework against which any hypothesis can be tested. I think a few of the comments misunderstood what Dan was aiming for in his admission of not knowing... anyone who claims they do is frankly misrepresenting themselves. You have to simplify to understand deeply. Love it or hate, this alternative finance space is not going away. It may morph. There will be bubbles, busts, scams and incredible business models. How it plays out, no one knows and that is fine. Also, something many of you missed, is that Dan is a founder and major shareholder of one of the largest gold custody businesses in the world. He is a gold guy too. He see that macro picture as well. Gold and bitcoin can coexist. Its not Godzilla vs King Kong! ;-)
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DFNot much hard substance discussed here...He sounds like every moonboi from 2017--relax, Bitcoin is just the first internet meme exchangeable with USD. Solving the byzantine general problem with PoW is cool, but solving it with programmable PoS is 100 times more useful.
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WMIts seems simple to me, Bitcoin is a great speculation until governments wrest control under the auspices of criminality, or it is recognized that is primarily a Chinese "artifact". No doubt to could double triple or quintuple a bet with bit coin, yet be prepared to lose most of that downpayment. Bitcoin requires confidence to survive. Gold is a STORE of wealth, backed by 3,000 years of value, which if kept outside the banking system, with a prudent storage facility and preferably not in your own country of tax domicile, has no counterpart (or hacker) risk. Gold is the ultimate bedrock of confidence in the financial system, past and future. As quoted "Gold IS money, everything else is credit" (or fiat).
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PVTruly awesome... exemplify why RV stands out.... Clearly Gold & BTC are not a zero sum game....yet BTC holds the promise of being more than just an "hedge"....
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BSPart of the 15% who quit after 15 mins
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BSA philosophy session...
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DHThe label is Recession Watch, but the interview is crypto hype. RealVision, I am losing trust in you. You are becoming click bait for millennials, and the interviewee says only under 30 get it, over 50 too jaded. This is sick. Not one new reason for crypto other than shouting THIS IS BIG. To me, it is a liquidity play and when QE4ever starts, Bitcoin will take off, but that does not assure succcess. It has a lot of hurdles to get over with authorities.
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ASTo all the haters: this is what RV should be: bringing new ideas and giving you something to think about. You may not like crypto, you may think it’s bullshit, there’s no there there, etc., but this gave me a little bit to think about. It IS the network, the security, the software. Hell, Microsoft built an empire on this. This is just another step toward an actual information economy.
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rkJ
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tkThat was an amazing interview. This is exactly why I subscribe. Great interview. Dan was really interesting. I appreciated his humility. Bitcoin is an exhaustive topic. It appears as though Bitcoin has staked a claim as being the “native money for the internet”. When it comes to money, the hardest money wins over time. It sure seems like bitcoin would be useful in the non G7 countries where most of the currencies are run by despotic leaders. The central bankers in the G7 are experimenting with the goal of debasing, so, it may be useful here as well. If I were the internet, I would want My own currency, one that is effectively global and exists on its territory instead of through the territories of the various nation states that we have today, one that is non political. It appears as though the bitcoin protocol by solving the Byzantine Generals Dilemma through proof of work and incorporating a public block chain on a true peer to peer network while incorporating a scarcity factor has possibly become just that. If that is even possibly true, then an investor can’t afford NOT to do the work. The risk of missing bitcoin is unlike missing a stock. It will impact all investments. Most investments offer the luxury of “taking the pitch”. Just put it in the “too tough pile”. When it comes to currency, the hardest currency will devour the weakest and so one must take the time and do the work on this new protocol. Thanks for getting things started with Tuur Demeester, Dan Moorehead and Wences Casares. Keep it coming would be my suggestion.
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MCFantastic interview. Please keep crypto content coming!
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MSHow many times does he acknowledge he doesn't understand it? And yet he's pounding the table that it's a good investment...
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DCRacoon anyone?
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JOVague. Enthusiasm without support. Unconvincing. The problem is not our lack of imagination. The problem is the lack of coherent positive arguments or rebuttals of legitimate counterpoints from the interviewee here (no matter the ethos of his resume). Sounds like a "you either 'get it (meaning the narrative)' or you don't" pitch. Lots of narrative peddling without substantiation. Please simply admit this is a gut bet behind trends your framework likes (e.g. decentralized systems) that offers what you deem to be an attractive risk/reward skew with a convex right tail. Then I actually like that proposition.
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mFPeople will watch this interview in few years and be like ''that guy was right'', but this guy has no diea what BTC is today and why it will increase in value over time. I actually think Raoul understand BTC better than him.
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SAWhatever this guy buys is going to make money because everybody else in Manhattan will want to be doing what he is doing. It doesn't matter what he is doing. This guy is one of those "everybody wants to be him" type of people and the things these type of people touch are a success just by virtue of their personalities. He reminds me of the Victor Ziegler character in Eyes Wide Shut (the host of the first party played by Sydney Pollack).
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MTFinally!!!! Lightbulb moment.
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BTSorry for the gibberish below, keyboard issue and RV has no way to edit or delete your post provided. Re. goverments banning BTC. It should be remembered that Bitcoin was designed in a decentralized manner specifically to prevent such a shutdown of the network. It's a software network that runs on computers spread around the globe, so any efforts to close it down would resemble a game of wack-a-mole. However a more compelling possible reason for the unlikely ban is that Bitcoin is also free speech. it can't be made illegal in the U.S. thanks to the First Amendment. That's because bitcoin is just code, and code is just speech, which is based on legal precedent established during the so-called crypto wars of the early 90s. In 1993, Phil Zimmerman faced possible criminal charges for writing the encryption software PGP. The government said that it was as dangerous as guns and bombs. To make the point that PGP's source code is protected speech, MIT Press printed it in a book, sold it abroad, and Zimmerman was never indicted. Then in 1995, with help from the Electronic Frontier Foundation, mathematician Daniel Bernstein sued the U.S. government on First Amendment grounds for blocking publication of his encryption program. "Computer language is just that, language," wrote Judge Marilyn Hall Patel. Ultimately, the Ninth Circuit Court affirmed Patel's ruling that code has the free speech constitutional protections. If the world transitions from a dollar standard to a cryptocurrency standard, by then, software will have made it easier for users to maintain and trade their own cryptocurrency without involving a regulated company.
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HAI genuinely hope someone will answer this question: Why won’t a better, faster, blockchain/crypto supplant bitcoin?
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FCLooking at the comments below and the number of thumbs down, it appears that Dan has something very useful to say! Was looking forward to hearing from him again for a while! Thanks RVTV.
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BTOitfffffffddddd dkaldkfkjdOI
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ADBring Nouriel Roubini to have a more complete explanation, this interview was a bit biased.
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hrliar, liar, pants on fire. There are a lot of financial professionals that cannot really think by the comments below. Bitcoin is going to eliminate most of your useless jobs. A mathematical solution to trust and elimination of middlemen. Yes, it is much more than that.
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RSIt’s not clear what makes bitcoin so interesting? Store of value Decentralised authentication Currency for digital assets A case can be made for each of these....but maybe the real one is fear of missing out....100 trillion to start! Markets form opinions.
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RHLet's be fair. Nobody on earth "understands" tulips, yet, time seems to have brought some way to reconcile supply and demand. Bitcoin is much harder to propagate than tulips, so supply is pretty easy to understand. That leaves demand as the big issue. Personally, I have no need for a secretive number with no intrinsic value which is difficult to trade, can be irretrievably stolen and which depends entirely on a functioning and accessible internet.
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DWTo me all those "big" (or not so big) thinkers are overcomplicating bitcoin. I stay with Mayer Amschel Rothschild: "Permit me to issue and control the money of a nation, and I care not who makes its laws!". This alone makes me confident that bitcoin will never play a role of importance. In case it ever gets close it will simply be banned. Purely a matter of speculation (happy to use it for that purpose) but never a store of value.
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MSHard to listen to. All hyperbole. Crytpo has never demonstrated itself to be anything more than a speculative mania and means of transacting illicitly. It's not a safehaven. It's not a stable store of value. It's not an efficient means of transacting.
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IFDamn fine head of hair.
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Svthis all smells like tulips!
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Svsound and fury signifying …..?
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FGIm always dubious when someone is almost evangelical about something who readily admits in the conversation that they understand less than half of what the product actually is, and repeating quotes about what the Winklevoss think something is worth doesn’t bode well. Freely admit I really don’t understand bitcoin but from the outside looking in it seems to me the bitcoin is essentially just a protocol that some people for now have put faith in, but I don’t really see clear reasons why another protocol could not be invented (or thousands of other protocols for that matter) and we all give up on this one. A well informed friend has advised me that the maximum transaction processing rate for the Bitcoin ecosystem is about 5 transactions per second which doesn’t really sound like its ready for world domination - I think my local supermarket probably handles a similar amount of transactions and I believe the combined credit card issuers process about 4000/second. Other anecdotes say that the ecosystem only exists for now because there is money in mining and once that disappears a lot of people won’t keep the infrastructure as it will be hard to monetize. The mysterious founder of bitcoin apparently still holds 10% of the currency, i don’t think (if true) its appropriate for one individual to hold potentially 10% of world money supply should all this pan out as the Bitcoin buffs hope... Distributed ledger makes sense for a lot of applications but I think if there is going to be a crypto currency it will likely be formed and controlled by a coordinated government effort like it or not - ultimately they control the electricity supply and ability to control large parts of the telecommunication networks and for anyone who has tried to use Facebook in China or Skype in the UAE you will soon realise if they want to stamp on something they will find a way to do so. In summary I will take Gold and its 1000+++ year history vs Bitcoin’s 10 years but I wait with interest and my popcorn on the sidelines to see how the story unfolds. I am ready to be wrong and admit I don’t understand enough to put any of my money or gold into it.
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GFRaoul, Please continue this exploration of block chain. If you were to bring on Charles Hoskinson again and give him time he needs to discuss this, I think it would help your listeners understand a bit more. There is so much here. I've been reading and learning and investing since late 2017. I'm still in the game and wiser now. It is worth the journey. Gaye VF
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AHAs stores of wealth, the similarities between bitcoin and gold take very different value paths when viewed through a lense of their respective dependence on technology. In parking funds in one or the other, I'm basically choosing a spot outside the system that is going to become more in demand as the system turns to poo. It's essentially a slightly paranoid hedge against a range of worst case scenarios. Bitcoin is now said to be an acceptable alternative in this space. However, what I rarely hear discussed in relation to bitcoin, is that the amalgam of software and hardware it exists on is totally vulnerable - particularly so in the very situations it could be used as a kind of digital ersatz gold. So with a bit of a trade war going on etc, there are various extrapolations that are inflating these assets right now. However, we should also extrapolate the trade war a bit: Without going to extremes, I can foresee a next logical escalation of an unresolved and bitter trade war as a war of cyber sabitage that could impact hugely on every level of access and movement of digital currency. At very least, we need functional hardware and software to be in crypto. As I see it, the entire crypto space is in the epicentre of the very trouble it is expected to hedge against. Perhaps simplistic, but as a doom, gloom and calamity store of wealth, I can't see crypto as a good alternative. In my firm we recently had an ordinary power failure. It was hugely expensive. And that's just one complex system. As I see it, Crypto is dependent on far too many complex systems to be a good friend in foul weather. The wisdom of Marshal McLuhan's message of interconnectedness in technology should be heeded in relation to bitcoin in this context. Its systems base is too complex to weather the kind of breakdown that sends markets looking for the simplicity of gold.
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JBWhenever I see these nontechnical espousers, I immediately think charlatan.
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CHThese are the key points from this interview... 1. "I'm not the right guy to talk to about this." 2. "I don't understand half of the white paper." 3. "I don't know how to value it." 4. "I'm not the guy to talk about its applications." Just seems like a lot of claims being made with anything to back up the claims. Has this guy been sent out to pump bitcoin so someone else can unload their position?
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ICThe more I have heard about Bitcoin, the less attractive it has become as an investment. Why? Please read what ROBERT H. and Fred G. wrote about it below. I want to really see the people at the moment when they understand that the King is really naked!
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SGenjoyed the interview... yes he does seem crazy when he says Bitcoin is the biggest investment opportunity but who's to say he is wrong. 7:42 remaining on the tape Dan says something very interesting "there is so much intervention now in traditional markets". Why is that interesting? Because when people say look how volatile Bitcoin is, they fail to realize there is no Crypto central bank stepping in every time Bitcoin has a bad day, like there is with traditional markets. Raoul... please get Plan B on, would be an interesting conversation for sure!
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PGGreat to hear Dan's thoughts on this! Seems like he gets it. The only thing I would point out is that there is no "they" or elected leadership that controlls or leads the Bitcoin community. That's why it's so hard to find a coherent marketing pitch. People are free to use, define and describe this system as they see fit which obviously makes it very hard to grasp .This also makes it easy to get sidetracked by scams claiming that their coins are much better than Bitcoin etc (avoid Bitcoin.com for instance, use Bitcoin.org instead). My two cents to anyone reading: Read the Bitcoin whitepaper. It's short and not very hard to understand (at least not on a higher level). Then I would start listening to some podcasts or youtube videos. Start with the "What Bitcoin Did Podcast" (great for newcomers) and some youtube videos by Andreas Antonopoulos. That said, it's great to see RV sticking to the Bitcoin theme as it becomes clearer by the day that it's here to stay. Thanks
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JSGreat discussion
DAN TAPIERO: Bitcoin was down 85% from the high and as an old time macro guy, you're looking to buy things that have gone down 85%, 90% after a blow-off. That's what it is. I think it's a security truth machine. Okay, well, Amazon, that's worth a trillion dollars itself stuff on the internet. But is that as valuable as a new invention for humanity?
RAOUL PAL: One of my key ideas is that within this recession scenario that I think is building, that gold and Bitcoin are going to be two of the assets that perform extremely well because they've become options on a more extreme monetary policy. So, I wanted to speak to one person who brings both of those themes together. He happens to be one of the most experienced macro people in the entire world. He's touched and worked with a lot of the greats of the industry, and he has a unique perspective. And he's been hassling me and hounding me for about six months now that I need to get back involved in Bitcoin.
And when Dan, who's not a Bitcoin guy originally, starts doing that to me, he's got a reason because he's a pure macro player. So, I really want to hear what he's thinking here and how this fits into my broader narrative.
Dan, finally, we get you back. Your previous videos were cult watching for a lot of people because you're one of the pure macro guys. And I was doing this whole thought process about recession and bits and pieces. I've been thinking the Bitcoin was part of what I'm looking at within that framework. And you and I separately, have been talking about it and you'd been hounding me from about February onwards, saying, come on, Raoul, you got to get back into this.
Before we get into your thought process and how you've applied your own macro framework into building your Bitcoin thesis, it's just people should- because many people wouldn't have seen you from the earlier interviews, just to go back over some of your background. And the reason