I am an Australian and actually worked at the RBA (unlike the interviewee). There are hundreds of people that fit that profile. Lots of them would understand they can agree to buy a bond at 0% for a long maturity. Other people are idiots.

I wish you guys would have a glossary of some of these abbreviations you use under here so we can follow the discussion. What is TGA?

Can someone explain to me why a reserve currency central bank's solvency matters? This is a major assumption in Ben's logic and I find it to be strange. 1.) the fed rebates interest income back to the treasury 2) PV effects of raising rates on their holdings has no effect because there are no capital requirements on the fed. Like OK the dollar should lose a bit of value relative to the other reserve currencies relative to how much they ease.... but that has little to do with "solvency."

Question why does moving from dominant global supply chain to local supply chain necessitate inflation? Yes moving to a global supply chain has brought prices down over the years but one could argue that with the advent of autonomous/advanced manufacturing are we really going to see prices go up again?

RV please bring Ben back as a 2021 start, would be great to have his view post election and with current COVID outcome

Again, why gold performs well under strong deflation? I have read that in multiple sources but dont get why exactly. Is it because all other assets fall and people run to safety and that leave only gold when treasuries are not an option?

As this was recorded July 1st, it is notable Melkman was pound-the-table bearish on the U.S. dollar, and bullish on the euro, for logical reasons (for ex. see transcript excerpt below). He was exactly right, and all of the plumbing-focused, fiscal-blind dollar bull types (including Raoul to some extent) were dead wrong. That dollar-bearish, euro-bullish perspective was a very big call -- and STILL has major implications moving forward, so it is worthwhile to point out. For those who still insist, against the charts, on being USD bullish, note that: 1) It is all about the fiscal: Stimulus creates dollars, and the US has not been shy in creating dollars, even as the Fed bought $2.4TR in treasuries in 2020, which means they swapped them for dollars) 2) It is all about increasing velocity via post-vaccine recovery igniting stagnant reserves: As M&A picks up in 2021 and the top third of the US economy goes into optimistic post-vaccine mood, banks will lubricate deals powered by strong balance sheets and even more dollars will flow 3) it is all about rebalancing: The world's reserve managers, e.g. central banks and institutions, are historically overweight US dollars, and it will take a long time, and a lot of selling, to get them to a more normal weighting 4) It is all about the charts: Look at a long-term dollar index chart. If you don't see the monster bearish implications there, you can't consider yourself a legitimate user of price-based inputs. Dollar. Bulls. Are. WRONG. Relevant Melkman excerpt (again, he got it right -- in July!): "The world is much too long dollars and overweight dollars at a time when the US is way more isolationist... The world's changing in a way that would argue that those holders should find alternative ways of transacting and alternative ways of investing and so that trade of diversifying away from dollars is something that I think-- certainly to any of your listeners, from a personal trainer, necessarily on a leverage mark to market basis, that, I can absolutely be wrong on the next month, two months, three months, but on any relevant horizon, I think the dollar is in big, big trouble here."

Disappointed this was recorded back in July. I wasnt a member back then and would not know if it's a re-release. Didnt see where it was. Still great thoughts and perspectives. Ben Melkman. This is two interviews that I've seen with him now. Pretty damn hard to get any more brilliant. But, for as brilliant as he is, we all still have our own crosses to bear. I just cant look at this guy and not see Ron Jeremy on some kind of super duper intelligence pill. Sorry Ben.

Is Singapore in the same group as Norway, given how it has funded its covid response with its reserves? Why or why not?

Would be keen to see a follow up interview in Q1 21 with the election and senate finalised and the new year under way.

For those who want more Melkman, he did an excellent 30 minute interview with Ben Schatzker of Bloomberg in mid-August 2020 -- and once again his views were on point. Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxOiYouewXs Descrip: "Ben Melkman, founder of Light Sky Macro, expects the Covid-19 pandemic will usher in a world of permanently low interest rates, huge deficits, sluggish growth, resurgent inflation, and declining U.S. power and influence. He also foresees "glory days" ahead for macro traders."

Please put original recording date up on the top corner of the screen and make it clear if it’s a re-release. It was an interesting video but I agree with others that it is of limited value at this point.

Great interview. Started off slowly (and a bit wishy-washy I thought), which may explain some of the negative comments here, but worthy seeing it through... the insights on NOK, USD outlook and euro end game were outstanding. Additionally it was great to see an interview where RP and BM had a proper debate on a number of topics and I thought BM really held his own.

just a bit disappointing that this is 6m out - the election is a moot point now

Time for more Ben Melkman! He is truly an intellectual artist. I wonder about those souls who didn't think this was an outstanding conversation.

Old news...

Treasury general account: what is the balance of this account now? Still around 1.4T? or did the Mnuch dump the funds into the market?

Lot of hot air from this guy. Nothing of deep substance. Sad wasted time. RV can do much better