This is ridiculous, "they've co-opted or even coerced people like MSCI in the FTSE to include Chinese equities in global indices at much higher levels than China represents in global GDP" Doesn't he know the MSCI indices are market cap based instead of GDP based? https://www.msci.com/market-cap-weighted-indexes Good luck, Mr. Bass

Does anyone know how to best bet in the same direction as Kyle Bass on the HK dollar (that it will break the peg?). I don't have 100K to invest in his Hayman Hong Kong Opportunities Fund....

guy is an idiot nationalist

What does Kyle mean when he says "almost 900% of assets to GDP in your banks" ? Is that national debt he's referring to? Thanks :)

Seems like Kyle just made a 180 degree change in his position on the Hong Kong Dollar? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-09/kyle-bass-eyes-200-to-1-leverage-for-new-bet-on-hong-kong-crash

Great interview. Agree with most of what Kyle said. However, If Trump could elucidate the timeline of the virus outbreak better, he could convince the country he was lied to? Oh please Kyle. The point he made about Chinese not paying any tax on the investments made in the US is a little misleading. This policy is not just for Chinese investors, it is for all foreign investors.

Kyle Bass, “The single best currency opportunity in the world today is Hong Kong.” How does one put this position on?

Kyle hasn't been out with regular people in years. Restaurants, who deal with ordinary people, can't thrive with 20+ unemployment.

Well Kyle, World is bigger than Asia, Europe, South America and USA. WE have South Africa, Canada, Australia, UK, Middle East, India. Some of these markets are doing great, as their Fiscal and Monetary policies are well balanced and targeted with a plan to wind it all back! Just because you have blinders on, doesn't mean there are other places which are worth investing at.

This guy seems so mad that China exists. It's eating him alive to see that another possible system exists. Most of this video is China bashing. Can't he just get to the point of his trade and the thesis...

Thankyou Raoul & Kyle For the fantastic insights . That is one of the best interviews I have seen on Real Vision .

Thank you for this interview. Love to hear Kyle’s perspective!

Personally, this was a tough conversation to listen to. As a scholar of International Relations and macro econ it was almost refreshing to see the blend of both on RV. Yet, the conversation became a lecture. Would like to have seen Raoul push back or challenge, even if jut for debates sake. At least biases were clearly visible, however, good academia requires balance and this interview lacked it.

"Wuhan, Corona, Chinese virus"??? You've got to be kidding me. Maybe Mr. Bass can explain such a xenophobic comment in the context of the United States, under the direction of Dr. Fauci and the NIAID, funding the Wuhan lab to research "gain of use" (i.e. enhancement) of bat corona viruses (apart from the publicly reported reason that it was deemed too dangerous to do so in the US). What other toxic biases are in his analysis? Don't know, so will ignore.

Great discussion. Question: With all the interest in tax policy, if the tax decreases under Bush 2 and Trump were marched back, what would be the tax structure and rates for wealthy Americans (e.g., net worth over 5 million)?

People like Kyle bass would rather go to a hot war to hurt everyone one than work with each other and enjoy the mutual benefit and live peacefully. Dangerous!!! There is a reason why you failed doing business in China. Don't be a bully if plan to make money off of people.

All the Panda huggers are out here, why dont you migrate to china if its such a great place? HK was such a cool place and the communist tentacles are turning it into a shithole

Why does this guy spend every chance to bash China and politics why China should fail. He talks about the history of Hong Kong... Listen we want to know what will happen in economy. Not get lectured about human rights and how America and the west is the right system...

Kile: The US taxpayer re-capiltalized the private US banks, via the Fed paying high interest on reserves. This reduced revenue to the US treasury from the Fed. The banks messed up and taxpayers (future debtors) paid via calculated deception. "Capitalize the banks" means something people don't know.

you really got to lol when he said China's economy is based on a Marxist-Leninist model. Last I checked its 2020 not 1960 and Mao has been dead for decades. When DXP moved to open up the economy and sought a model to emulate he went a tiny island to meet with a man named LKY. This guy has more influence on China's economic development than Marx or Lenin.

Largest interaction I've seen since subscribing to Real Vision so love him or hate him Kyle is good box office . I think it's brilliant we have such diverse guests . Greatest thing I've learnt in 30 years of trading is to have an open mind and Real Vision is a great conduit for different opinions . Don't start slagging each other off folks , this is a brilliant platform. Different David R to the fella below .

I am not a fan of the Chinese regime and I know there is a lot of fishy stuff over there (like the case every where in the world including the USA!) but Mr. Kyle’s views seem to reveal his personal bias and hostility toward China. He has been betting against China for while and he seems to be getting frustrated that his bets have failed (so far at least). I used to have great respect to him but I think he has lost creditability and objectivity. He would make a great Propaganda Chief for Trump!.

Kyle is great, reason I joined real vision. if people don't like politics why do they comment about politics on this comment section, if its finance they want to talk about. lol

If US companies and investments moves out of China as the Kyle predicts, which other country will benefit the most? India?

I value RV's lineup, but this one not my cup of tea.

I think Kyle pointed out very interesting facts to reflect on, but overall he is a very controversial person which speaks out of his own interest. "Morally with democrats but they are wrong about their ideas how to implement economic policies". When your pocket is more important than people interests. Don't tell me that Trump Corporate Tax made normal people better off, stock markets are not a reflection of the real economy.

Kyle deliberately using sensitive racist comments like the Wuhan virus is such a-shame & distraction. Most here are educated and progressive. Today we no longer accept comments especially from leaders that incite racial violence against Chinese / Asians, Jews, African Americans...

As always interesting to hear thoughts, input and ideas from both Kyle and Raoul. Raoul, try and nail Kyle down on a trade structure (or two?) next time. He's excellent at walking through his trades - and has the humility to admit when they did not go exactly to plan, this would add alot of value - even ex post facto - just to see more about thought process, risk management, sizing and approach.

pretty crazy to see how polarizing KB is now, just by reading the comments here. 1st part of the interview was fairly tame and on point, 2nd part he talks up his narrative/trade (nothing that he's not said already re: HKD, China etc) and ends with his bet on HKD (I'm with Raoul on Euro or even other commodities currencies ie South America, AUD, CAD but hey it's his money). personally not offended by his use of words, seems to be his talking style (he was able to string "wuhan corona chinese flu virus" in one sentence!, called the UK a banana republic when talking about the HKD re-peg, ha ha). I believe there are inconsistencies in his HKD/China narrative, so provide info below (since some points don't align with what I've seen in HK): - HKD was peg to USD in 1972, not in 1980's as he said. it was floated between 1974-83, then with the crisis, was re-peg to USD at 7.8 and have been since. This doesn't align with KB's narrative of HKD was peg in mid-80's, it was peg earlier, tried to float, failed, and re-peg to USD, not forced to de-peg from sterling (banana republic) in the 80's. ref: wikipedia HKD. - i agree that the HKD will/should be re-peg, as USD is less relevant to HK than the RMB. my bet would be China will be forced to / or at their planned time will re-peg HKD, who knows when. - 1997'ish. Mr. Soros tried to break the HKD (KB's new playbook?). couple with the HKMA response, property prices went into a freefall. Banks never failed (HK people typically don't walk away, ie bankruptcy - we grind through the pain). China open up the gates to chinese money/immigration/visitors and absolutely saved HK (look at HK GDP growth 1990's to 2020). in hindsight, probably too much as we got overwhelm with chinese $$/people (the only ones who love it are the HK tycoons, made out like bandits) and now huge animosity towards mainlanders. I don't get his fear narrative, in fact I came back in the late 90's and HK was a helluva place to make $$ and party, that animal spirit seems to have departed to Shanghai now. Seems KB wants to try Soros HKD gambit again, there's a good read on quora here www.quora.com/Why-does-George-Soros-criticize-the-Chinese-government-so-vehemently/answer/Che-Tianyi - The narrative with Soros/other traders back in the 90's was to attack the HKD, knowing it will be defended, but then bet against the HK stock market (puts). so the HKD peg doesn't break, but the stock market tanks under the HKMA actions, and you make out like bandits... what a diversion. maybe this is KB's play (he only talks about the HKD, is there another side of the bet on the stock market?) - The recent round up of some of the pan-dems, ie Martin Lee, Jimmy Lai, etc was definitely a signal. KB portrays it as a "freedom" crackdown, we see it more of "don't spew crap" warning shot to all these idiotic politicians and people "watch what you say", there's been too much stupid "news" in HK like protesters died in Prince Edward MTR (subway) propagated to support a narrative. Jimmy Lai / Apple Daily has been known forever to be anti-China, but everyone still reads Apple Daily (we like to gossip, and AD is our National Enquirer). - OBOR is funded mainly by chinese money lend through the SOE's, NSRF, AIIB is lead by China, not sure why he thinks western countries are contributing to OBOR much. - Raoul's question of "why capital is not fleeing HK" is spot on. From what I see here, this "HK will collapse" is just a story line, people are not liquidating / businesses are not moving to SG... property prices barely budged. no panic, no fear. some money moving offshore for diversification, but alot still in HK. The COVID situation may change things, lots of small businesses going under. - accounting standards are relatively similar in China and GAAP. Fraud exists even in US, re: Grant Williams interviews with Marc Cohodes. but the better insight (IMHO) is that wall street/US exchanges wanted the chinese listings (it's all about the $$$), and were more "flexible" with the rules than even HK stock exchange. www.amcham-shanghai.org/en/article/chinas-accounting-standards-chinese-gaap-vs-us-gaap-and-ifrs#! - definitely has an anti-china view, not in a polite way, the words he uses "thief, spy, lie, cheat, steal, bribe", wow. think if any country accuses same of Washington/lobbyists/politicians, they're be nuked :-) It's odd this "china tricked us" mentality, i don't know of any chinese brands that americans buy? it's all made in china by american brands... cheap labour exploited by US companies for profit margins, so don't understand the hatred (not like luckin cofee will impact american lives like starbucks would). if not made in china, will be made in vietnam, bangaladesh, other countries, local brands still don't make it in USA. hopefully with automation, manufacturing moves closer to the consumers (whether USA or Europe, etc) but it won't bring back many jobs. at least still have cheap goods I guess. interesting comment on FINK, orgs "pro-china" or paid for influence... uhmm, aren't washington lobbyists the american ingenuity to get around FCPA? The more things change, the more they stay the same. China / chinese making money in stock gains and not paying taxes? OK, that was a bit weird... overall, typical KB.... am curious when/once he gets over the HKD trade, what's next... south african rand or maybe the ruble?

Anyone would be kind enough to educate me as to which "bond spreads" Kyle is referring to at 18:45 please? If it helps, Raoul refers to these spreads in the transcript with his follow-up question: "[...] one of the things I'm looking at is the euro, [...] the bond spreads aren't moving, or do you think the bond spreads might move, and it's just investor behaviour right now that's ignoring that trade?"

RV is a financial community not politics. We are all here to learn about financial news & how to profit from it. Your tube is best place to express your political views. Leave the politics for politicians.

Enjoyed thoroughly the interview and Mr B’s insight Politics is part of economics and much more so with this incandescent geopolitical struggle

Astonishing that the US of A has allowed China to do all this for so long, with no correction... we risk 1000 yrs of obscurity if the rest of the world adopts this enslavement-like governance... and we have come to an impasse in history, revealed by the MOST unlikely individual... DJ Trump Unbelievable that was this character, the disruptor in chief, that finally made us stumble into a better path

First Hugh Hendry and now Kyle Bass. Everybody around the world talks and writes about the Corona crisis. Some refer to covid19 yet Kyle Bass, a public critic of China, persist in calling it the Wuhan virus. This is petty and biased. The whole explanation of the fall of the HKD in 1981-1983, the start of the Asian crisis after the Hong Kong hand over in 1997 and it's connection with interference from China is incoherent and lacks causality. Mr Bass refers to China as a Marxist state or similar wording, this is far from the truth nowadays and one wonders why Mr Bass does not see that his own obvious bias. China has many faults but what that country has achieved since the 1970's is nothing short of an economic- and social miracle. The USA, which flag Mr Bass wears proudly on his lapel, is not as different from China as Mr Bass may want people to believe. The USA has very powerful interest groups mainly centered around big business, these groups have huge influence on politics and on how the country is run. China has one extremely powerful interest group namely the Communist Party. For the rest both countries have powerful defense forces, elite universities, many hard working and successful businessmen and both have a great focus on economic development. The Chinese dream for the average Chinese does not differ that much from the American dream. For many Chinese the PRC is their motherland yet the USA is the country they admire. I am not sure how often Mr Bass visits China, or Hong Kong for that matter, but I am confident that when he does there will be many people who will welcome him with open arms and who are very interested to hear his views. Mr Bass is putting increasingly these open minded people in an awkward position.

I think Kyle is a smart guy but the conversation need to be kept in the economic/financial realm. There are many details to be said for both China and USA in terms of human rights violations, bullying other nations, etc. I subscribed to learning markets.

Is Kyle a shareholder in Real Vision, by the way? Disclosure would be nice. Disclosure from me: I'm a HK permanent resident, though I spend most of my time elsewhere. Hope Hong Kong pulls through. Agree CCP actions in HK are unacceptable. But Kyle seems to be cheering HK's collapse because that's where his (fund's) money is...

First cases of AIDS reported out of San Francisco... Why not call it US Aids or San Francisco Aids?

There a small number of interview guests (not necessarily on RV but in the media-sphere in general) who who suck life energy out of this listener. This is one such guest. I will be moving on with my day and healing after this one. Gross.

Sounds like Kyle has a bit of an axe to grind against China.

Good entertainment I guess for the redneck racist hicks and any Joseph Goebbel wannabes in the deplorable Dotard admin.

I just wish Kyle would have also discussed all the tyrannical things happening in the US like "contact tracing" and one day where they will make it mandatory to take vaccines which WILL NOT be safe and cause more sickness. They will claim we have more C19 and it's worse than they thought so we all need to get inoculated in order to travel, shop, got to work, etc. It's called the mark of the beast.. We DO NOT need garbage vaccines. We need truth, freedom and health as Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai likes to say. We just need to work on keeping our own immune systems strong. By the way we already have a therapy a rather proven inexpensive one and it works most of the time if administered early enough. It's called Hdroxychloroquine. It stops viral entry, stops RNA replication, stops viral particle assembly and stops probably the most important thing called the cytokine storm. Only thing it does not stop is it does not killing the virus by viral membrane disruption. On the other hand Remdesivir only stops viral RNA replication and that's it. And if the virus mutates Remdesivir is useless. Also of those five things listed Vitamin C and Vitamin D kill virus membrane disruption and stop the cytokine storm. FRAUDci already knows this about Chloroquine as I believe it was his people that published a study in Virology Journal. Get this it was published Aug 22, 2005. However, they all hate it because it only costs $20 to treat instead of the thousands that they can all profit off of with something different plus the profits from a garbage vaccine too. Title.... Chloroquine is a potent inhibitor of SARS coronavirus infection and spread Authors...... Martin J Vincent1, Eric Bergeron2, Suzanne Benjannet2, Bobbie R Erickson1, Pierre E Rollin1, Thomas G Ksiazek1, Nabil G Seidah2 and Stuart T Nichol*1 Abstract..... Background: Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is caused by a newly discovered coronavirus (SARS-CoV). No effective prophylactic or post-exposure therapy is currently available. Results: We report, however, that chloroquine has strong antiviral effects on SARS-CoV infection of primate cells. These inhibitory effects are observed when the cells are treated with the drug either before or after exposure to the virus, suggesting both prophylactic and therapeutic advantage. In addition to the well-known functions of chloroquine such as elevations of endosomal pH, the drug appears to interfere with terminal glycosylation of the cellular receptor, angiotensinconverting enzyme 2. This may negatively influence the virus-receptor binding and abrogate the infection, with further ramifications by the elevation of vesicular pH, resulting in the inhibition of infection and spread of SARS CoV at clinically admissible concentrations. Conclusion: Chloroquine is effective in preventing the spread of SARS CoV in cell culture. Favorable inhibition of virus spread was observed when the cells were either treated with chloroquine prior to or after SARS CoV infection. In addition, the indirect immunofluorescence assay described herein represents a simple and rapid method for screening SARS-CoV antiviral compounds.

Like a kindergartener insists on calling it Wuhan virus. Haha what a trainreck this guy.

I see RV have deleted a bunch of comments that were not pro China. Dirty

Why don't the Chinese pay tax when they sell stocks? Is it because of a trade agreement? I'm from Singapore and we clearly have to pay 30% capital gains tax when we sell US stocks.

Could Kyle tell us what the size of the banking system is in New York vs the economy in New York? Because, to me, Hong Kong is to China as New York is to the USA. The relevant metric is not HK banking sector size vs. Hong Kong GDP. It's HK banking sector vs. Chinese GDP. Just saying...

Lots of slow adjusters in the comments, can't handle the dissonance between the new narrative and the old narrative regarding China. The mask has slipped. The CCP wont outlive this era. Globalism over, China taken down an an arms length relationship and their strength found to be weakness. If you've been reading about how powerful and integrated they are for years on end, this must be v hard to assimilate.

Always good to hear from Mr. Bass.

I am glad Kyle call it for what it is the Chinese/Wuhan Virus.

kyle bass is so overrated, take a look at his performance

Can't rewatch - great interview but like drinking from a firehose!!! But.... undefined Error Code: APPEND_BUFFER_ERR Technical details : The quota has been exceeded. Session ID: 2020-05-14:6808945e15999c37617c05f Player Element ID: _5ebd4a2452902

I am astounded at the amount of ignorance in the comments section. "It's not the 1960's, and Mao has been dead for decades?" You people really think their capitalist's over there, huh? I mean...Jesus. I can't help, but laugh at these remarks. Incredible, simply incredible...

Raoul, why would you allow B-ass such a lengthy time to spread his politically charged anti-China propaganda when you asked a simple question about how can Hongkong dollar manage to maintain its peg to the US dollar? I thought this platform is about investment, not personal political agenda, especially such an extreme personal view which is perfectly more suitable for Fox.

I'm a Cantonese Chinese person who's roots come from the Hong Kong and the Guangzhou region. What Kyle describes about Chinese geopolitical bribery, cheating, manipulation, and self victimisation is completely correct in my micro day to day experiences. The Chinese have a culture of cheating, exploitng, and doing whatever it takes to get ahead with no regards for their environment or others around. When they cheat and lie to their fellow man, be he Chinese or otherwise, it's seen as a reason for smug celebration. They'll take and take as much as they can with no regards for anyone but their own immediate group. This isn't meant to be racist, and I understand it comes off completely as such, but it is just what I've seen and experienced with my own eyes. From my early childhood years I've learned to avoid these mainland types. That's not to say all mainlanders are bad people, and far from it, but my bad interactions have led me to completely avoid this group. Personally I believe this generation's Chinese leaders, the best and brightest and most virtuous mainland Chinese were culled and slaughtered or otherwise forever silenced during the Tiananmen events that transpired across China. Remember tank man, who stood up against a whole army, grocery bags in hand, daring the tanks to crush his flesh, knowing that his spirit would forever live. This is the Chinese spirit that has been loss. I pray that it's not been lost forever. God bless China.

interesting interview, sadly kyle felt like you were using political or "investment position" political views way too strongly ... "China - evil" - "Wuhan virus" - "PPP". i have always respect your opinions, but was real alice in world land stuff. raoul you manage the interview well

Very well put. Why would anyone defend China is beyond me.

I'm US with HK roots and would defend the West at all cost. Very important to first acknowledge that people have potential to be both the best and the worst you've ever seen. The West is far from perfect but it should not be blamed for the flaws of humans. It's ignorant, in the charitable sense, to discuss the problems of China without distinguishing between the CCP and the Chinese people. OTOH, if you know better and avoid concluding that China is a totalitarian system where one exploits the other, why is that? US/China? Maybe the best I've seen is South Park "Band in China".

As always I enjoyed the conversation, loads of timely thoughtful analysis. With that said, I hope calling it the "Wuhan virus" doesn't become normalized on RV, it takes away from the legitimate criticisms the analyst made. Thoughtful people can be critical of China without the pathos farming of the style reminiscent of Fox News. As a side note, Mr. Bass's worldview seems to ignore the multitude of western decisions from 1839 to 1972 that helped shape current Chinese regime, which at times makes it difficult to listen to. Also, his strategy of confronting China with the "rule of law" is cringe inducing, that ship has unfortunately sailed in America.

Raoul asked us to remain respectful so, in line with that, all I will say is that this is the first video from Real Vision I've ever shut off early. Got through 16 minutes. In my opinion the guest's constant political tint is what made the video unwatchable.

It's actually a little unnerving to hear Kyle being so positive. haha

Raoul is really onto something with the liquidity adjustment for QE. That seems to me the heart of the matter to answer the most important message at this moment. Deflation or Inflation? In the US alone how much market capitalization has been destroyed? I heard someone say 20 trillion. QE and fiscal stimulus has been what, 5 trillion? That's an enormous bucket to fill and then if you consider that all the eurodollar markets outside the US need to also be capitalized too the ramifications are huge. Then take all the other deflationary effects like demographics, technology, debt... and its deflation all the way down because politicians and central bankers don't understand the hole we are in.

Kyle should be running for Congress or something. This sounded more like a political interview than investing macro view. He, pretty much, regurgitated his talking points from past several years. Not much of an insight, except for HK, imo.

What is the Hong Kong currency position?

Kyle's attention to the numbers/history is always excellent. That was great. But his describing Trump/Biden as just two "old guys" is so disturbing. The differences are so extreme and the stakes so high. Democrats want to rip up the Constitution and implement "Socialism" which actually seems more like a Chinese Totalitarian state. Trump is high energy and as sharp as they come. He's a billionaire businessman/outsider/anti-swamp with an amazing track record of defeating political opponents. Biden has been a lifelong politician, seems to be slow, have mental issues, and has accomplished almost nothing in 40 years in politics. "Three degrees and top half of class" turned out to be one degree and bottom of class so he also lies by a country mile. And I am Canadian so I don't have a party bias. I understand Kyle has to be careful what he says. So this may not be the best forum for real political discussions.

Bass might be right about a V shaped recovery (in the equity markets) given the Fed operations and capital inflow that is likely to continue. The first 15 minutes or so was good to see. The devolution to another Bass diatribe on HK and China (which he is right on) is essentially a waste of time at this point. He has been saying it forever, nothing has happened, and none of us listeners can trade it anyway, which is the icing on the cake. So we don't really care apart from a dedicated discussion that we sought out ourselves. Regarding the political discussion at the end, I don't think Bass understands what really is going on, and it's surprising given his realization of just how corrupt the CCP is and the news media of the US that supports it, by and large. Trump will win going away, and talking about "old guys" and putting Biden (the most incapacitated man physically and mentally to ever run as candidate for US president) in the same category is breathtakingly devoid of analysis. So he gets things right, but not with great conviction or analysis. Trump will win in large part because the news media is based on lies and in large part because he is the incumbent as well. But to a greater degree he has a corpse as a challenger. Vaccine, Kyle? Worst prediction ever. You don't even need one. It's just not that problematic or lethal of a virus, which is already obvious and will be more obvious. We didn't need a vaccine for SARS, MERS, or H1N1 for similar reasons. We didn't quarantine or lockdown people for those. What happened to them? We didn't talk about them, because the reaction to the whole story here is essentially a non-story, historically. Largely, the whole thing is a central planning and power move by corrupt leaders, with propaganda and really contradictory, weird and disgusting anti-liberty measures taken for no good reason (except power and control for the elites = please bail us out).

I'm a former mutual fund analyst and I'd suggest that RV put up a profile for each interviewee. There were several manager on RV who's opinions are very interesting but there performance not so much. I think for transparency reasons the listeners should have access to that. It would also be good to state (in this profile) what his/her investment time horizon is. We know from the discussions between Raoul and Julian how important that knowledge is.

Whats with Kyle's fake books? We've seen a lot of libraries over the recent weeks - a fake one is new!

Yes, China will take back Hong Kong, by diplomacy or force, and agreed, that the HK property bubble is as big as it was in Japan in the 80s, the only problem here is that HK has been used as a safety deposit by mainlanders to store their wealth, also the backdoor around the capital control when it comes to FX transfer offshore, don't see much has changed as mainland China is goes thru much worse crack down when it comes to basic human rights and property rights than HK, except everyone is used to it, so no one is talking about it. It's in China's interest to maintain the peg until all the wealth preservation and money laundering is complete from mainland to offshore. Soros bet against HK peg before and lost, because it wasn't just HK monetary authority he's betting against, but the whole FX reserve of PBoC, will Bass win this time around?

this was great. i love all the different viewpoints

Interesting interview and viewpoint. Mr. Bass seems to be leaning more to the "V" or maybe even "✓" shaped recovery models. He's maybe not wrong about a certain demographics of people wanting OUT of lockdown and going places to spend money. However looking at the older population average age demographic which seems to be more affected by the virus, and disposable income disparity, it still seems an "L", or best case "U" model look most likely. Then add a possible second wave of infections coming before a vaccine seems more likely than a lightly tested rushed vaccine.

many good points in the interview and a really dumb one... how much tax is Hayman Cap paying in Germany when making a 10% gain on a SAP or Adidas trade?

I found Kyle comments about Chinese not paying capital gain taxes in the US very surprising. That’s the rule worldwide I.e. if you are a USC investing in Europe for example, you pay CG taxes in the US not in Europe. The rule per OECD on global taxation is that one pays taxes in its country of residence when it comes to financial investments ( real estate is a different matter). It is very complicated to change these international taxation agreements ( nothing is impossible). If the rule is changed, it will have to change for all overseas investors ( unless it is specifically targeted for China with all discriminatory aspects to it). If that’s the case, that might have a huge impact on capital flows to the US and create issues with double taxation and US investors would be liable for capital gain taxes in other countries for their overseas investments. What would be the impact on US markets? I am not defending the Chinese here just scratching my head how would that work ( if possible ) and what would the implications be? I am happy to hear any opinions?

I don't have any strong views one way or another regarding Kyle. I just didn't think this interview brought much new to the discussion about "What's Next." That being said I do appreciate his point of view on China. I can say having served and worked all over the Middle East, unless one has spent serious time on the ground it is very difficult to gain a true grasp of the facts. I have seen things first hand that regardless of your news source no one is educating us about, and for that while this interview didn't do much for me, I appreciate the different perspectives.

One of the better Bass interviews I've seen in recent years, since he's become uber-political and a Trump apologist. Just wish Raoul would have reigned him in more in the second half of the interview and kept a sharper focus on investments. That said, it was an interview well worth watching.

Don't forget the second wave this winter.

I found Kyle incoherent. The biggest question (and the question we are trying to answer in this series) is whether we are going to make it through this crisis in one piece, or spiral out of control as Raoul posits. I could not for the life of me figure out where Kyle comes down on this fundamental question.

So this interview is a glaring example of a disconnect from the majority and the minority. Kyle has no clue on what the majority is suffering or how it will affect the future. He says people are making 20% more being off work but fails to realize that a large group has yet to even receive a unemployment check. I know of people who had already been receiving unemployment and then stopped receiving checks when this happened. I would also like to point out that the majority of the economy was consumption based and the biggest consumers are the poor. They consumed most of the time on credit, what happens when they loose credit lines? I know for the wealthy their credit lines got even looser but not for the poor. So if the poor can charge their way through life what happens to the economy. This interview was a disappointment.

Good interview but it is very difficult to listen to K. Bass bash China from the Pro USA high horse. The US has just as many, if not more skeletons hiding in the closet. How many nations have been either covertly or directly brow beaten into submission by the US for their own gains.

Why is gold supposed to do well in a deflationary environment?

All, I don't know why everyone feels like this is a forum to express your views on China policy in terms of accusing people of being CCP trolls or being racists. Please leave that for youtube. It is not acceptable, whatever your view point. Also the ad hominem attacks of the comment you Kyle are NOT to be tolerated. I do understand that Kyles views are controversial, but you didn't see me attacking him because it doesn't agree with my view. It is not the forum for that. NO ONE cares about YOUR politics , except yourself, so keep them to yourself and discuss the content and what you learned or agreed/disagreed in a measured, respectful thoughtful manner. Don't ruin this precious community. Thank you. Raoul