The State of Global Macro through Coronavirus Chaos

Published on
May 12th, 2020
Duration
70 minutes


The State of Global Macro through Coronavirus Chaos

The Interview ·
Featuring Kyle Bass and Raoul Pal

Published on: May 12th, 2020 • Duration: 70 minutes

Kyle Bass, founder and CIO of Hayman Capital, joins Real Vision’s Raoul Pal to break down the state of global macro. Bass talks about the bifurcation between capital markets and the real economy due to unprecedented monetary policy response. Bass and Pal discuss both temporary and permanent behavioral changes in response to coronavirus shutdowns and the potential for the global economy to stave off an insolvency crisis. Finally, Bass shares his perspective on U.S. – China tensions and provides viewers with a few ideas for investments that can help portfolios navigate today’s uncertain markets. Filmed on May 7, 2020.

Comments

Transcript

  • FL
    Flavia L.
    3 June 2020 @ 02:11
    Great interview. Agree with most of what Kyle said. However, If Trump could elucidate the timeline of the virus outbreak better, he could convince the country he was lied to? Oh please Kyle. The point he made about Chinese not paying any tax on the investments made in the US is a little misleading. This policy is not just for Chinese investors, it is for all foreign investors.
  • Hv
    Hannah v.
    13 May 2020 @ 20:34
    Kyle Bass, “The single best currency opportunity in the world today is Hong Kong.” How does one put this position on?
    • SC
      Sean C.
      13 May 2020 @ 21:51
      Was wondering the same. CME don't have HKD futures. ICE do but they don't trade. bid/ask on forex broker swap rate/roll rate will make holding the trade expensive.
    • BP
      Benjamin P.
      14 May 2020 @ 01:59
      Forex seems to be the only option for retail. I checked FX futures and Options in the US and found nothing available. If anyone can come up with a leveraged play I would love to hear it.
    • JB
      James B.
      14 May 2020 @ 06:41
      Puts of $EWH?? Not the best expression of the trade.
    • PO
      Phillip O.
      17 May 2020 @ 03:10
      Short HSBC. Hong Kong listed shares not the British.
    • RM
      Robert M.
      1 June 2020 @ 10:45
      Go long on the USDHKD pairing. Easy.
  • JG
    James G.
    17 May 2020 @ 20:14
    Kyle hasn't been out with regular people in years. Restaurants, who deal with ordinary people, can't thrive with 20+ unemployment.
    • WM
      Will M.
      31 May 2020 @ 21:07
      This is a very good point James. We are already seeing a few restaurants starting to go bust in the larger Houston metro area. Its the smaller places and perhaps some chains that will go bust first if they can't get to 50% occupancy very quickly.
  • KK
    Kail K.
    13 May 2020 @ 10:36
    Well Kyle, World is bigger than Asia, Europe, South America and USA. WE have South Africa, Canada, Australia, UK, Middle East, India. Some of these markets are doing great, as their Fiscal and Monetary policies are well balanced and targeted with a plan to wind it all back! Just because you have blinders on, doesn't mean there are other places which are worth investing at.
    • DT
      David T.
      13 May 2020 @ 10:53
      Which markets are balanced and worth investing?
    • AP
      ANTHONY P.
      13 May 2020 @ 14:50
      Yeah Kail, let's hear it!
    • WM
      Will M.
      31 May 2020 @ 21:02
      Kail, I think you blurted out a statement with little back up. What markets are doing great?
  • LX
    Liezhao X.
    24 May 2020 @ 02:03
    This guy seems so mad that China exists. It's eating him alive to see that another possible system exists. Most of this video is China bashing. Can't he just get to the point of his trade and the thesis...
    • js
      jeffrey s.
      27 May 2020 @ 05:25
      You made your point the first time. Use brain then you won't have to coat-tail his trades.
  • JW
    James W.
    26 May 2020 @ 05:19
    Thankyou Raoul & Kyle For the fantastic insights . That is one of the best interviews I have seen on Real Vision .
  • AC
    Alyson C.
    25 May 2020 @ 23:33
    Thank you for this interview. Love to hear Kyle’s perspective!
  • sm
    stuart m.
    25 May 2020 @ 08:59
    Personally, this was a tough conversation to listen to. As a scholar of International Relations and macro econ it was almost refreshing to see the blend of both on RV. Yet, the conversation became a lecture. Would like to have seen Raoul push back or challenge, even if jut for debates sake. At least biases were clearly visible, however, good academia requires balance and this interview lacked it.
  • ME
    Mark E.
    20 May 2020 @ 14:22
    "Wuhan, Corona, Chinese virus"??? You've got to be kidding me. Maybe Mr. Bass can explain such a xenophobic comment in the context of the United States, under the direction of Dr. Fauci and the NIAID, funding the Wuhan lab to research "gain of use" (i.e. enhancement) of bat corona viruses (apart from the publicly reported reason that it was deemed too dangerous to do so in the US). What other toxic biases are in his analysis? Don't know, so will ignore.
    • DR
      David R.
      21 May 2020 @ 03:13
      Really? Did you even watch the presentation or are you simply reacting with little to no insight? Mr. Bass sums up the horrible predicament western democracy and rule of law finds itself in and you parrot a communist talking point? If you bothered to catch his discussion regarding the CCP threatening to withhold pharmaceuticals if we discussed the origination of the virus openly, you would understand his conviction in labeling it the wuhan flu.
    • CW
      CC W.
      22 May 2020 @ 05:10
      Viewers on RV get trigger easily.
    • AP
      Anne-Marie P.
      23 May 2020 @ 02:31
      Well, it did come from China. That's fact. I wouldn't personally call it "China virus". But people are so easy to offend nowadays for anything. They say things like "you can't say this and that". Don't forget that controlling someone often starts with controlling their language. So, call it whatever you want and if you get some haters for that. That's life.
    • BM
      BRENDAN M.
      24 May 2020 @ 22:44
      Get over yourself pussy... no believes that Xenophobic angle... Just like Spanish flu isn't anti-Spanish...
  • CG
    Christine G.
    24 May 2020 @ 20:47
    Great discussion. Question: With all the interest in tax policy, if the tax decreases under Bush 2 and Trump were marched back, what would be the tax structure and rates for wealthy Americans (e.g., net worth over 5 million)?
  • CX
    Cindy X.
    24 May 2020 @ 15:43
    People like Kyle bass would rather go to a hot war to hurt everyone one than work with each other and enjoy the mutual benefit and live peacefully. Dangerous!!! There is a reason why you failed doing business in China. Don't be a bully if plan to make money off of people.
  • GS
    Gary S.
    24 May 2020 @ 08:34
    All the Panda huggers are out here, why dont you migrate to china if its such a great place? HK was such a cool place and the communist tentacles are turning it into a shithole
  • LX
    Liezhao X.
    24 May 2020 @ 01:57
    Why does this guy spend every chance to bash China and politics why China should fail. He talks about the history of Hong Kong... Listen we want to know what will happen in economy. Not get lectured about human rights and how America and the west is the right system...
  • GR
    Grant R.
    13 May 2020 @ 17:47
    Kile: The US taxpayer re-capiltalized the private US banks, via the Fed paying high interest on reserves. This reduced revenue to the US treasury from the Fed. The banks messed up and taxpayers (future debtors) paid via calculated deception. "Capitalize the banks" means something people don't know.
    • RM
      Robert M.
      20 May 2020 @ 20:16
      And what did the banks do with funds the received from the 2008 mess - besides buy back more of their stock so top management could get a largr payday from the ISO's?
  • tj
    tan j.
    14 May 2020 @ 16:56
    you really got to lol when he said China's economy is based on a Marxist-Leninist model. Last I checked its 2020 not 1960 and Mao has been dead for decades. When DXP moved to open up the economy and sought a model to emulate he went a tiny island to meet with a man named LKY. This guy has more influence on China's economic development than Marx or Lenin.
    • SP
      Steve P.
      15 May 2020 @ 03:08
      Tan, their Constitution literally says it’s based on Marxist-Leninism. This is a philosophy of top down control based on rigging outcomes to cause emotional suffering. Real practitioners know, it’s about maximum productive output and maximum emotional suffering. It’s a philosophy of predatory control and power. Think, Economic BDSM. Read the CCP constitution. Philosophies are timeless. Tyranny will always exist as a natural human element.
    • WC
      Wilson C.
      15 May 2020 @ 14:04
      folks are too focused on CCP, theory models, go to china, do some business, talk to your multi-nationals who have americans, europeans, asians working in china for Nike, Starbucks, read some american's viewpoints on quora... deal with mainland chinese and americans, there are more similarities than differences (in business, not culture).
    • RM
      Robert M.
      20 May 2020 @ 19:40
      Tan, I am a firm believe in watching what be do, rather than what they say. Mr Bass's statements have been very accurate, as far as I can see.
  • DR
    David R.
    14 May 2020 @ 18:14
    Largest interaction I've seen since subscribing to Real Vision so love him or hate him Kyle is good box office . I think it's brilliant we have such diverse guests . Greatest thing I've learnt in 30 years of trading is to have an open mind and Real Vision is a great conduit for different opinions . Don't start slagging each other off folks , this is a brilliant platform. Different David R to the fella below .
    • RM
      Robert M.
      20 May 2020 @ 19:38
      I agree David. Some only seem to want to have their own beliefs reaffirmed.
  • AA
    Ali A.
    17 May 2020 @ 13:56
    I am not a fan of the Chinese regime and I know there is a lot of fishy stuff over there (like the case every where in the world including the USA!) but Mr. Kyle’s views seem to reveal his personal bias and hostility toward China. He has been betting against China for while and he seems to be getting frustrated that his bets have failed (so far at least). I used to have great respect to him but I think he has lost creditability and objectivity. He would make a great Propaganda Chief for Trump!.
    • OS
      Owen S.
      17 May 2020 @ 15:06
      totally agree with you
    • GL
      Gustavo L.
      17 May 2020 @ 15:42
      Go ahead... bet on China... he might not like them, but he’s not wrong
    • RM
      Robert M.
      20 May 2020 @ 19:24
      Anything you can point out specifically - backed up with how/why he is wrong?
  • RG
    Robert G.
    18 May 2020 @ 04:51
    Kyle is great, reason I joined real vision. if people don't like politics why do they comment about politics on this comment section, if its finance they want to talk about. lol
    • RM
      Robert M.
      20 May 2020 @ 19:21
      I agree ;. I'd add that when it comes to the CCP, pointing out all of the things they've done 'to take advance of the 'goodness' of the US crosses the political divide into finance - at a very large cost of capital (both financial and intellectual). But, I think it is important to make sure we separate the CCP from the great people of China .
  • TJ
    TP J.
    12 May 2020 @ 09:37
    If US companies and investments moves out of China as the Kyle predicts, which other country will benefit the most? India?
    • DB
      Daniel B.
      12 May 2020 @ 10:14
      That would be an interesting point to hear discussed.
    • MS
      Michael S.
      12 May 2020 @ 14:14
      Predicts? Companies were already moving out of China before Trump and Bass, because the China has become the victim of its own success. Wages there are now too high, so now there's Vietnam or just coming back to the U.S., where it's easier to oversee the production and shipping costs and other considerations make it competitive to manufacture closer to the end consumer, even if it's at a slightly higher price.
    • AG
      ALEJANDRO G.
      20 May 2020 @ 05:02
      Mexico
  • DB
    David B.
    20 May 2020 @ 01:50
    I value RV's lineup, but this one not my cup of tea.
  • MC
    Mattia C.
    18 May 2020 @ 22:08
    I think Kyle pointed out very interesting facts to reflect on, but overall he is a very controversial person which speaks out of his own interest. "Morally with democrats but they are wrong about their ideas how to implement economic policies". When your pocket is more important than people interests. Don't tell me that Trump Corporate Tax made normal people better off, stock markets are not a reflection of the real economy.
  • PC
    Peter C.
    15 May 2020 @ 06:39
    Kyle deliberately using sensitive racist comments like the Wuhan virus is such a-shame & distraction. Most here are educated and progressive. Today we no longer accept comments especially from leaders that incite racial violence against Chinese / Asians, Jews, African Americans...
    • AL
      Antony L.
      15 May 2020 @ 11:46
      He is not racist against the Chinese. He is however completely against the CCP Goverment. Also viruses are named after their origin location many times in the past. He is trying to get people to realise the CCP are the culprits for this virus getting out.
    • JM
      Jeremy M.
      16 May 2020 @ 02:07
      totally agree, other examples of massive racist virus nameing spanish flu, west nile, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MIRS), German measles, danga fever, african river blindness. , I have always felt that the infectious disease specialty has always been racist !!!
    • SD
      Sharam D.
      16 May 2020 @ 04:37
      Racist or not, he is conveying negative emotions and subjectivity in what is supposed to be an objective economic analysis. That reduces his credibility in my opinion.
    • PO
      Phillip O.
      17 May 2020 @ 02:59
      Maybe you should go cry in your safe space.
    • RD
      Rick D.
      17 May 2020 @ 18:35
      Lyme Disease is named after Lyme, CT, because that's where it was first discovered. Ebola is named after the Ebola river in Africa, where one of the first people to get diagnosed with it had recently returned from. While I agree that it's a distraction in the context of this video (this is not a scientist talking about new disease, it is a economic discussion) and doesn't add anything to the conversation, new bacteria/viruses/diseases are commonly named after the areas of the world where they originated or were discovered. With that being said, I think it's fair to say that many of the people politicizing the "Chinese/Wuhan Virus" aren't aware of this and instead use it as a distraction to point the finger and blame another country for their own troubles.
    • JC
      John C.
      18 May 2020 @ 18:16
      Terrible take. The virus began in Wuhan and China allowed it to spread globally. Full stop. Not unfair to call it what it is. Your comment reeks of what the CCP might say.
    • FR
      Frank R.
      18 May 2020 @ 20:36
      Virus's are named for the place of origin... CCP propaganda is where you are getting your "racist" ideas from... Bass's thinly disguised anger is "moral outrage" at concentration camps, live organ harvesting and an endless list of atrocities committed by the CCP...
  • SH
    Stephen H.
    18 May 2020 @ 13:36
    As always interesting to hear thoughts, input and ideas from both Kyle and Raoul. Raoul, try and nail Kyle down on a trade structure (or two?) next time. He's excellent at walking through his trades - and has the humility to admit when they did not go exactly to plan, this would add alot of value - even ex post facto - just to see more about thought process, risk management, sizing and approach.
  • WC
    Wilson C.
    14 May 2020 @ 10:08
    pretty crazy to see how polarizing KB is now, just by reading the comments here. 1st part of the interview was fairly tame and on point, 2nd part he talks up his narrative/trade (nothing that he's not said already re: HKD, China etc) and ends with his bet on HKD (I'm with Raoul on Euro or even other commodities currencies ie South America, AUD, CAD but hey it's his money). personally not offended by his use of words, seems to be his talking style (he was able to string "wuhan corona chinese flu virus" in one sentence!, called the UK a banana republic when talking about the HKD re-peg, ha ha). I believe there are inconsistencies in his HKD/China narrative, so provide info below (since some points don't align with what I've seen in HK): - HKD was peg to USD in 1972, not in 1980's as he said. it was floated between 1974-83, then with the crisis, was re-peg to USD at 7.8 and have been since. This doesn't align with KB's narrative of HKD was peg in mid-80's, it was peg earlier, tried to float, failed, and re-peg to USD, not forced to de-peg from sterling (banana republic) in the 80's. ref: wikipedia HKD. - i agree that the HKD will/should be re-peg, as USD is less relevant to HK than the RMB. my bet would be China will be forced to / or at their planned time will re-peg HKD, who knows when. - 1997'ish. Mr. Soros tried to break the HKD (KB's new playbook?). couple with the HKMA response, property prices went into a freefall. Banks never failed (HK people typically don't walk away, ie bankruptcy - we grind through the pain). China open up the gates to chinese money/immigration/visitors and absolutely saved HK (look at HK GDP growth 1990's to 2020). in hindsight, probably too much as we got overwhelm with chinese $$/people (the only ones who love it are the HK tycoons, made out like bandits) and now huge animosity towards mainlanders. I don't get his fear narrative, in fact I came back in the late 90's and HK was a helluva place to make $$ and party, that animal spirit seems to have departed to Shanghai now. Seems KB wants to try Soros HKD gambit again, there's a good read on quora here www.quora.com/Why-does-George-Soros-criticize-the-Chinese-government-so-vehemently/answer/Che-Tianyi - The narrative with Soros/other traders back in the 90's was to attack the HKD, knowing it will be defended, but then bet against the HK stock market (puts). so the HKD peg doesn't break, but the stock market tanks under the HKMA actions, and you make out like bandits... what a diversion. maybe this is KB's play (he only talks about the HKD, is there another side of the bet on the stock market?) - The recent round up of some of the pan-dems, ie Martin Lee, Jimmy Lai, etc was definitely a signal. KB portrays it as a "freedom" crackdown, we see it more of "don't spew crap" warning shot to all these idiotic politicians and people "watch what you say", there's been too much stupid "news" in HK like protesters died in Prince Edward MTR (subway) propagated to support a narrative. Jimmy Lai / Apple Daily has been known forever to be anti-China, but everyone still reads Apple Daily (we like to gossip, and AD is our National Enquirer). - OBOR is funded mainly by chinese money lend through the SOE's, NSRF, AIIB is lead by China, not sure why he thinks western countries are contributing to OBOR much. - Raoul's question of "why capital is not fleeing HK" is spot on. From what I see here, this "HK will collapse" is just a story line, people are not liquidating / businesses are not moving to SG... property prices barely budged. no panic, no fear. some money moving offshore for diversification, but alot still in HK. The COVID situation may change things, lots of small businesses going under. - accounting standards are relatively similar in China and GAAP. Fraud exists even in US, re: Grant Williams interviews with Marc Cohodes. but the better insight (IMHO) is that wall street/US exchanges wanted the chinese listings (it's all about the $$$), and were more "flexible" with the rules than even HK stock exchange. www.amcham-shanghai.org/en/article/chinas-accounting-standards-chinese-gaap-vs-us-gaap-and-ifrs#! - definitely has an anti-china view, not in a polite way, the words he uses "thief, spy, lie, cheat, steal, bribe", wow. think if any country accuses same of Washington/lobbyists/politicians, they're be nuked :-) It's odd this "china tricked us" mentality, i don't know of any chinese brands that americans buy? it's all made in china by american brands... cheap labour exploited by US companies for profit margins, so don't understand the hatred (not like luckin cofee will impact american lives like starbucks would). if not made in china, will be made in vietnam, bangaladesh, other countries, local brands still don't make it in USA. hopefully with automation, manufacturing moves closer to the consumers (whether USA or Europe, etc) but it won't bring back many jobs. at least still have cheap goods I guess. interesting comment on FINK, orgs "pro-china" or paid for influence... uhmm, aren't washington lobbyists the american ingenuity to get around FCPA? The more things change, the more they stay the same. China / chinese making money in stock gains and not paying taxes? OK, that was a bit weird... overall, typical KB.... am curious when/once he gets over the HKD trade, what's next... south african rand or maybe the ruble?
    • EB
      Eric B.
      14 May 2020 @ 15:59
      "thief, spy, lie, cheat, steal, bribe" - KB is a person, not a government or country. "think if any country accuses same of Washington/lobbyists/politicians, they're be nuked :-) " - China has said the same about the US and other countries. No one has nuked anyone.
    • AG
      Alberto G.
      18 May 2020 @ 08:41
      Thanks for your comments, great to hear your IMO balanced/honest view.
  • jc
    jonathan c.
    12 May 2020 @ 12:44
    Anyone would be kind enough to educate me as to which "bond spreads" Kyle is referring to at 18:45 please? If it helps, Raoul refers to these spreads in the transcript with his follow-up question: "[...] one of the things I'm looking at is the euro, [...] the bond spreads aren't moving, or do you think the bond spreads might move, and it's just investor behaviour right now that's ignoring that trade?"
    • AP
      Andrew P.
      13 May 2020 @ 03:59
      Think he's talking about the Govt. bond spreads of Portugal, Italy, Spain, Greece etc and how they blew out during the Eurozone debt crisis in 2011.
    • jc
      jonathan c.
      18 May 2020 @ 08:01
      Found the answer in another video. I believe the bond spreads compare Germany with other Southern EU countries.
  • ME
    Michael E.
    17 May 2020 @ 17:49
    RV is a financial community not politics. We are all here to learn about financial news & how to profit from it. Your tube is best place to express your political views. Leave the politics for politicians.
  • GL
    Gustavo L.
    17 May 2020 @ 15:46
    Enjoyed thoroughly the interview and Mr B’s insight Politics is part of economics and much more so with this incandescent geopolitical struggle
  • GL
    Gustavo L.
    17 May 2020 @ 15:38
    Astonishing that the US of A has allowed China to do all this for so long, with no correction... we risk 1000 yrs of obscurity if the rest of the world adopts this enslavement-like governance... and we have come to an impasse in history, revealed by the MOST unlikely individual... DJ Trump Unbelievable that was this character, the disruptor in chief, that finally made us stumble into a better path
    • GL
      Gustavo L.
      17 May 2020 @ 15:40
      Chance Gardiner
  • MS
    Michiel S.
    14 May 2020 @ 15:07
    First Hugh Hendry and now Kyle Bass. Everybody around the world talks and writes about the Corona crisis. Some refer to covid19 yet Kyle Bass, a public critic of China, persist in calling it the Wuhan virus. This is petty and biased. The whole explanation of the fall of the HKD in 1981-1983, the start of the Asian crisis after the Hong Kong hand over in 1997 and it's connection with interference from China is incoherent and lacks causality. Mr Bass refers to China as a Marxist state or similar wording, this is far from the truth nowadays and one wonders why Mr Bass does not see that his own obvious bias. China has many faults but what that country has achieved since the 1970's is nothing short of an economic- and social miracle. The USA, which flag Mr Bass wears proudly on his lapel, is not as different from China as Mr Bass may want people to believe. The USA has very powerful interest groups mainly centered around big business, these groups have huge influence on politics and on how the country is run. China has one extremely powerful interest group namely the Communist Party. For the rest both countries have powerful defense forces, elite universities, many hard working and successful businessmen and both have a great focus on economic development. The Chinese dream for the average Chinese does not differ that much from the American dream. For many Chinese the PRC is their motherland yet the USA is the country they admire. I am not sure how often Mr Bass visits China, or Hong Kong for that matter, but I am confident that when he does there will be many people who will welcome him with open arms and who are very interested to hear his views. Mr Bass is putting increasingly these open minded people in an awkward position.
    • WC
      Wilson C.
      14 May 2020 @ 16:47
      He’s talking his book. Mixing facts and stretching to fiction somewhat to fit the narrative. Dig a bit deeper and it starts to unravel. Unfortunately probably something to do with any news these days also, very few unbiased reporting now. Jared Dillian mention every journalist thinks it’s his/her duty to convince you to their side/opinion.
    • AR
      Anthony R.
      15 May 2020 @ 05:20
      'Wuhan Virus' happens to be accurate.
    • JM
      Joshua M.
      15 May 2020 @ 23:40
      It's not biased and I'm from Hong Kong. Also 1981-1983 and the start of the Asian crisis explanation was pretty accurate. Your own ideology will obviously play a factor into how much you agree with that.
    • GM
      Gavin M.
      17 May 2020 @ 11:50
      He is 100% accurate. You should consider becoming open minded yourself.
  • ZV
    Zornitza V.
    17 May 2020 @ 11:45
    I think Kyle is a smart guy but the conversation need to be kept in the economic/financial realm. There are many details to be said for both China and USA in terms of human rights violations, bullying other nations, etc. I subscribed to learning markets.
  • TE
    Tim E.
    16 May 2020 @ 13:20
    Is Kyle a shareholder in Real Vision, by the way? Disclosure would be nice. Disclosure from me: I'm a HK permanent resident, though I spend most of my time elsewhere. Hope Hong Kong pulls through. Agree CCP actions in HK are unacceptable. But Kyle seems to be cheering HK's collapse because that's where his (fund's) money is...
    • II
      IDA I.
      17 May 2020 @ 06:45
      Take a look at Napier's latest article on https://www.eri-c.com/, he is very negative on the situation and has no conflict of interest here. He sadly believes that China will de-peg the HKD from the USD and peg it to the CNY.
  • AP
    Antonio P.
    12 May 2020 @ 15:24
    First cases of AIDS reported out of San Francisco... Why not call it US Aids or San Francisco Aids?
    • jR
      james R.
      12 May 2020 @ 15:33
      Go ahead, see if I care. There's way too much hypersensitivity in these type of forums these days.
    • DT
      David T.
      12 May 2020 @ 15:41
      It came from Africa.
    • DT
      David T.
      12 May 2020 @ 16:36
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV/AIDS#Origins
    • PO
      Phillip O.
      17 May 2020 @ 03:52
      Antonio is an idiot.
  • PB
    Phillip B.
    12 May 2020 @ 18:49
    There a small number of interview guests (not necessarily on RV but in the media-sphere in general) who who suck life energy out of this listener. This is one such guest. I will be moving on with my day and healing after this one. Gross.
    • MJ
      Marc J.
      12 May 2020 @ 20:54
      I'm slightly more pessimistic than Kyle and didn't agree with a lot of the interview but I may be wrong. It was very interesting to hear his perspective. What sucked out your energy?
    • PO
      Phillip O.
      17 May 2020 @ 03:46
      He has to go cry in his safe space.
  • TL
    Tom L.
    12 May 2020 @ 20:36
    Sounds like Kyle has a bit of an axe to grind against China.
    • NI
      Nate I.
      12 May 2020 @ 21:32
      By their own count, Mao Zedong killed 100 million. It was probably more. They're still at it today with live organ harvesting. People talk at length about the holocaust (which was horrible and we should talk about it) but it paled in comparison, yet few are willing to call out China. Kudos to Kyle for calling out their brutality and human rights abuses. The west tried extending the hand of friendship and it failed. Time for a cold war stance before we enable them any further.
    • DR
      David R.
      12 May 2020 @ 23:50
      Probably because Kyle keeps losing in Asia and is 100% wrong about it in every way. He is on the opposite side of the likes of successful winners like Ray Dalio and Louis Gave, both of whom lived years in China and have made fortunes in Asia. Sadly these winners won't come on RV and instead this worthless clown keeps returning. Don't listen to Kyle except to do the opposite, as Bass's record has been wrong, wrong, wrong. Like with his last surefire trade here that flamed out. The result couldn't have been more opposite of how Bass bet: https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/3082148/hong-kong-intervened-six-times-past-week-rein-dollar
    • PO
      Phillip O.
      17 May 2020 @ 03:43
      Yo David. Most members of the Nazi party were “successful” too and made a lot of money as they murdered millions of Jews.
  • DR
    David R.
    12 May 2020 @ 23:58
    Good entertainment I guess for the redneck racist hicks and any Joseph Goebbel wannabes in the deplorable Dotard admin.
    • DS
      David S.
      13 May 2020 @ 04:41
      A little harsh my friend. DLS
    • DR
      David R.
      15 May 2020 @ 14:18
      Yep, admittedly over-the-top. As sadly that's the American way nowadays to get attention. Blame the Dotard. for starting it.
    • PO
      Phillip O.
      17 May 2020 @ 03:37
      The irony of calling the US administration officials Goebbels is incredible. What country is murdering and harvesting the organs of millions of people in concentration camps?
  • BP
    Bryce P.
    13 May 2020 @ 03:43
    I just wish Kyle would have also discussed all the tyrannical things happening in the US like "contact tracing" and one day where they will make it mandatory to take vaccines which WILL NOT be safe and cause more sickness. They will claim we have more C19 and it's worse than they thought so we all need to get inoculated in order to travel, shop, got to work, etc. It's called the mark of the beast.. We DO NOT need garbage vaccines. We need truth, freedom and health as Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai likes to say. We just need to work on keeping our own immune systems strong. By the way we already have a therapy a rather proven inexpensive one and it works most of the time if administered early enough. It's called Hdroxychloroquine. It stops viral entry, stops RNA replication, stops viral particle assembly and stops probably the most important thing called the cytokine storm. Only thing it does not stop is it does not killing the virus by viral membrane disruption. On the other hand Remdesivir only stops viral RNA replication and that's it. And if the virus mutates Remdesivir is useless. Also of those five things listed Vitamin C and Vitamin D kill virus membrane disruption and stop the cytokine storm. FRAUDci already knows this about Chloroquine as I believe it was his people that published a study in Virology Journal. Get this it was published Aug 22, 2005. However, they all hate it because it only costs $20 to treat instead of the thousands that they can all profit off of with something different plus the profits from a garbage vaccine too. Title.... Chloroquine is a potent inhibitor of SARS coronavirus infection and spread Authors...... Martin J Vincent1, Eric Bergeron2, Suzanne Benjannet2, Bobbie R Erickson1, Pierre E Rollin1, Thomas G Ksiazek1, Nabil G Seidah2 and Stuart T Nichol*1 Abstract..... Background: Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is caused by a newly discovered coronavirus (SARS-CoV). No effective prophylactic or post-exposure therapy is currently available. Results: We report, however, that chloroquine has strong antiviral effects on SARS-CoV infection of primate cells. These inhibitory effects are observed when the cells are treated with the drug either before or after exposure to the virus, suggesting both prophylactic and therapeutic advantage. In addition to the well-known functions of chloroquine such as elevations of endosomal pH, the drug appears to interfere with terminal glycosylation of the cellular receptor, angiotensinconverting enzyme 2. This may negatively influence the virus-receptor binding and abrogate the infection, with further ramifications by the elevation of vesicular pH, resulting in the inhibition of infection and spread of SARS CoV at clinically admissible concentrations. Conclusion: Chloroquine is effective in preventing the spread of SARS CoV in cell culture. Favorable inhibition of virus spread was observed when the cells were either treated with chloroquine prior to or after SARS CoV infection. In addition, the indirect immunofluorescence assay described herein represents a simple and rapid method for screening SARS-CoV antiviral compounds.
    • Ar
      Ajay r.
      13 May 2020 @ 04:12
      This comment should be removed. Nonsense
    • GD
      Gerrit D.
      13 May 2020 @ 09:43
      This utter nonsense and contrary to recent findings in actual trials with actual COVID19 patients.
    • MK
      Monty K.
      13 May 2020 @ 10:08
      OMG! What is it with anti vaccination types? Totally off in cookoo land. You need to catch Polio and then go on your rant.
    • JF
      Jordan F.
      13 May 2020 @ 15:22
      Thank you Bryce. Big Pharma and therefore the NIH have a lot to gain from the vaccine push, at the potential cost of our health, My friend has never been the same after he got the H1N1 swine flu vaccine as a precaution and suffers from headaches almost every day all day he claims. Robert Kennedy Jr has also been protecting children and exposing the link between vaccines and autism (think mercury poisoning). There is also a good book by Neil Miller with hundreds of papers about harm from vaccines.
    • PF
      Patrick F.
      13 May 2020 @ 23:54
      Totally true information. Speaking from actual experience.
    • PO
      Phillip O.
      17 May 2020 @ 03:29
      You are a FUCKING MORON, Bryce. Mark of the beast? Anti-vaccine? What the actual fuck? Get some help dude.
  • NA
    N A.
    13 May 2020 @ 10:49
    Like a kindergartener insists on calling it Wuhan virus. Haha what a trainreck this guy.
    • DT
      David T.
      13 May 2020 @ 10:52
      It is Chinese virus that escaped from Wuhan Lab. He doesn't have to be politically correct as you would wish.
    • NA
      N A.
      13 May 2020 @ 11:04
      That’s the beauty of it, he’s wrong and doesn’t even understand why. had to turn it off when he started talking about the superior US capitalist system, I’m not sure if he’s heard but the Fed just sent everybody a check in the mail, the good old capitalist system is dead. I don’t think China is better but ironically China is more capitalist than the US today. Let that sink in. Enjoy your Wuhan virus.
    • AP
      ANTHONY P.
      13 May 2020 @ 14:48
      The FED didn't send "everybody a check". That was fiscal not monetary stimulus. Congress and the Pres sent those checks and they will issue bonds to pay for them. When those bonds get repaid it will be with your taxes, your children's taxes, and their children's taxes. In fact the FED had no say in the matter whatsoever.
    • NP
      Naimesh P.
      13 May 2020 @ 15:08
      checkout kyle's tweets from December and you will figure out how correct he is and u also find local Chinese news reports regarding recruitments of bat scientists and researchers. by now we all know it's man-made that's why it's called a Wuhan virus.
    • WG
      Wade G.
      14 May 2020 @ 03:24
      A.P., yes, the checks were fiscal, but acknowledge the broader reality: the Fed enables all fiscal profligacy, because it's there to buy Treasuries when needed. This is understood always, so the gov't never is required to manage its affairs prudently "just in case". More obviously, what do u think all the QE programs were, except the Fed funding the gov't directly. Moreover, every time they risk losses on other purchases, such as MBS's or currently, corp bonds, they have initiated a fiscal role for themselves. This is true regardless of the fig leaf of the Treasury standing to take the first loss on such purchases.
    • PO
      Phillip O.
      17 May 2020 @ 03:18
      What kindergartener defends a modern day Hitler and supports a country with millions of religious prisoners in concentration camps? Grow up.
  • LL
    Lukee L.
    13 May 2020 @ 22:16
    I see RV have deleted a bunch of comments that were not pro China. Dirty
    • RE
      Raymond E.
      14 May 2020 @ 02:48
      Given the nature of some of the comments that I read here a couple of days ago, I am pleased that the Real Vision staff removed them. This site has a purpose other than venting one's political views.
    • PO
      Phillip O.
      17 May 2020 @ 03:08
      Maybe RV shouldn’t suppress free speech. That’s how a few million people end up in slaughtered in concentration camps without anyone noticing.
  • MN
    MYLENE N.
    15 May 2020 @ 15:30
    Why don't the Chinese pay tax when they sell stocks? Is it because of a trade agreement? I'm from Singapore and we clearly have to pay 30% capital gains tax when we sell US stocks.
    • PO
      Phillip O.
      17 May 2020 @ 02:53
      I’m very curious about this as well. Anyone have an answer here?
  • TE
    Tim E.
    16 May 2020 @ 13:14
    Could Kyle tell us what the size of the banking system is in New York vs the economy in New York? Because, to me, Hong Kong is to China as New York is to the USA. The relevant metric is not HK banking sector size vs. Hong Kong GDP. It's HK banking sector vs. Chinese GDP. Just saying...
    • PO
      Phillip O.
      17 May 2020 @ 02:52
      Except NY isn’t meant to be an autonomous/ separate system from the US like HK vs China. And even if you want to say state vs federal, the FED already proved in ‘08 that the US government will intervene to save those banks.
  • BC
    Benjamin C.
    13 May 2020 @ 15:51
    Lots of slow adjusters in the comments, can't handle the dissonance between the new narrative and the old narrative regarding China. The mask has slipped. The CCP wont outlive this era. Globalism over, China taken down an an arms length relationship and their strength found to be weakness. If you've been reading about how powerful and integrated they are for years on end, this must be v hard to assimilate.
    • KE
      Kai E.
      17 May 2020 @ 00:41
      It’s good to see this after scrolling the comments for 10 min. Ben gets it. To anyone who hasn’t caught up yet... time to pick up a copy of Disunited Nations.
  • VS
    Vasil S.
    16 May 2020 @ 08:35
    Always good to hear from Mr. Bass.
  • HF
    Hassan F.
    16 May 2020 @ 08:24
    I am glad Kyle call it for what it is the Chinese/Wuhan Virus.
  • dd
    david d.
    12 May 2020 @ 05:35
    kyle bass is so overrated, take a look at his performance
    • PB
      Pieter B.
      12 May 2020 @ 07:38
      I always love to watch Kyle Bass! He is highly intelligent and not afraid to come with original and strong views. You can size your own bets to follow his ideas or just enjoy them without taking any position yourself. I think the RV community should applaud people like Kyle Bass.
    • CM
      C M.
      12 May 2020 @ 13:21
      David D, But just wait for the big year just around the next corner... :-) I agree with your observation, and I also believe that everyone is super triggered on this comment board. Everyone should take a deep breath. David, your criticism is the only rational one on this comment board: well done; give that man a cigar...
    • EO
      Elena O.
      12 May 2020 @ 13:29
      maybe that's because of his high conviction on HKD peg break trade?
    • TP
      Timothy P.
      12 May 2020 @ 16:57
      How many millions do you have in AUM for your fund, David d.? Its a fair question since you question Kyle's effectiveness.
    • LG
      Lance G.
      15 May 2020 @ 21:57
      Timothy P. - not to be snarky but how many millions in AUM do you have. Since you asked the question, its a question that perhaps you should answer as well. Just a thought.
  • BB
    Bob B.
    14 May 2020 @ 13:44
    Can't rewatch - great interview but like drinking from a firehose!!! But.... undefined Error Code: APPEND_BUFFER_ERR Technical details : The quota has been exceeded. Session ID: 2020-05-14:6808945e15999c37617c05f Player Element ID: _5ebd4a2452902
    • BB
      Brent B.
      15 May 2020 @ 19:56
      If you refresh the page you should be able to reload it and watch again.
  • SC
    Shane C.
    15 May 2020 @ 01:23
    I am astounded at the amount of ignorance in the comments section. "It's not the 1960's, and Mao has been dead for decades?" You people really think their capitalist's over there, huh? I mean...Jesus. I can't help, but laugh at these remarks. Incredible, simply incredible...
    • WC
      Wilson C.
      15 May 2020 @ 14:01
      it's true, and I base my perception on having the opportunity to be in china fairly frequently due to proximity to HK. What's the basis for your "ignorance", Fox News?
  • SG
    Shu G.
    13 May 2020 @ 00:02
    Raoul, why would you allow B-ass such a lengthy time to spread his politically charged anti-China propaganda when you asked a simple question about how can Hongkong dollar manage to maintain its peg to the US dollar? I thought this platform is about investment, not personal political agenda, especially such an extreme personal view which is perfectly more suitable for Fox.
    • MP
      Michael P.
      13 May 2020 @ 01:43
      The CCP is a criminal enterprise. Not the Chinese people. Deal with it.
    • RG
      Ryan G.
      13 May 2020 @ 03:27
      You support the clear agendas of the CCP? Healthy discussion on a topic even when involving a government is allowed in a democratic nations. If you don't like that then I suggest moving to China.
    • SG
      Shu G.
      15 May 2020 @ 03:03
      Talking CCP is just plain stupid.
  • CT
    Cherry T.
    13 May 2020 @ 03:58
    I'm a Cantonese Chinese person who's roots come from the Hong Kong and the Guangzhou region. What Kyle describes about Chinese geopolitical bribery, cheating, manipulation, and self victimisation is completely correct in my micro day to day experiences. The Chinese have a culture of cheating, exploitng, and doing whatever it takes to get ahead with no regards for their environment or others around. When they cheat and lie to their fellow man, be he Chinese or otherwise, it's seen as a reason for smug celebration. They'll take and take as much as they can with no regards for anyone but their own immediate group. This isn't meant to be racist, and I understand it comes off completely as such, but it is just what I've seen and experienced with my own eyes. From my early childhood years I've learned to avoid these mainland types. That's not to say all mainlanders are bad people, and far from it, but my bad interactions have led me to completely avoid this group. Personally I believe this generation's Chinese leaders, the best and brightest and most virtuous mainland Chinese were culled and slaughtered or otherwise forever silenced during the Tiananmen events that transpired across China. Remember tank man, who stood up against a whole army, grocery bags in hand, daring the tanks to crush his flesh, knowing that his spirit would forever live. This is the Chinese spirit that has been loss. I pray that it's not been lost forever. God bless China.
    • WC
      Wilson C.
      13 May 2020 @ 12:03
      I'll give you a counter-perspective, alot of HK'ers left china during the Mao revolution. Bad memories. most lost everything. the ones with the most anger and memories are the ones who lost the most (rich, well placed officials), some I know personally (all highly educated, overseas passports). Then there are the ones (mostly born around the handover) who feel we can't compete against the mainland chinese, they're too aggressive, cuts corners, smart risk takers. and as chinese companies expand, they relocate to HK. Glass ceiling for locals. I was in China in early 90's, it was a sh*thole and everything was done based on personal trust. our JV's got ripped off because the personal trust / relationship "guangxi" was not cultivated, let's do business with a contract, LOL. It's a different, better china now, my wife/I were just there before COVID19 and CNY in the greater bay area (GBA) as finally we think it may be wise to buy property in china (vs other friends who've bought since the 2000's) and wow, impressive (around Zhuhai/Macau/Dongguan). Still the skirting of rules, ex. "there's an extra room but it's not on the floorplan, wink wink, so you get x% more sq metres". you say you don't mean to be racist, but you come across as someone who has a chip on your shoulder. The chinese spirit hasn't been lost, if you watch local chinese media recently (esp what isn't available in western media) on how the people has come together to fight COVID19. including some kind-hearted HK'ers who flew into the wuhan epicenter to help. pretty inspiring. understand this may not be a popular comment here... ready for the down votes :-(
    • CT
      Cherry T.
      14 May 2020 @ 00:01
      Wilson's perspective is completely legitimate and it's very important that we understand the GuanXi style of business too when analyzing Chinese business interactions. He's right that I came off as very chip on the shouldery and in a passionate rage. My reason for this is that I'm completely Fed up with the lopsided bend over backwards way that westerners approach relationships with foreign countries, especially that of my homeland. I'm sick of America's perpetual fear of being perceived as racist should they ever call anything Chinese out. This is the exact kind of modesty that's abused by the government. They see you're willing to give so as to not appear hateful so they take as much ground as they can, metaphorically, and the moment you push back the racist card is pulled out. The west have been set so far back due to their willing blindness to this. Wall Street scammed again and again the latest being with Luckin Coffee. Pensions robbed, retirements, gone. Silicon valley, robbed of their ideas. Not to mention the persecution of those who are not Chinese in China. Foreigners have been treated worse and worse in the past years, and racist and evil propoganda that has begun to spread. Very recently, the Africans of Guangzhou have been unjustly persecuted and accused of spreading the Coronavirus in their communities, evicted from their homes, forced to take tests, arrested and set on the streets. Only when African politicians began to push back using their leverage over Chinese infrastructure built on their continent did China relent. When they cheat, we must call them on it. When they do good, we ought to celebrate with them for it. I don't ask for anything but America and the west to grow a backbone and treat China and the Chinese FAIRLY and as a fellow man.
    • SG
      Shu G.
      15 May 2020 @ 03:00
      You must have done very badly in both Hongkong and Guangzhou and now watching your fellow friends with jealous eyes. Feel sorry for you.
  • MG
    Malcolm G.
    14 May 2020 @ 20:34
    interesting interview, sadly kyle felt like you were using political or "investment position" political views way too strongly ... "China - evil" - "Wuhan virus" - "PPP". i have always respect your opinions, but was real alice in world land stuff. raoul you manage the interview well
  • CY
    Chang Y.
    13 May 2020 @ 04:47
    Very well put. Why would anyone defend China is beyond me.
    • RT
      Rex T.
      14 May 2020 @ 15:53
      Anyone with a Chinese surname and not defending China is beyond me. Don't mix up China with the CCP.
  • RY
    Raymond Y.
    14 May 2020 @ 15:20
    I'm US with HK roots and would defend the West at all cost. Very important to first acknowledge that people have potential to be both the best and the worst you've ever seen. The West is far from perfect but it should not be blamed for the flaws of humans. It's ignorant, in the charitable sense, to discuss the problems of China without distinguishing between the CCP and the Chinese people. OTOH, if you know better and avoid concluding that China is a totalitarian system where one exploits the other, why is that? US/China? Maybe the best I've seen is South Park "Band in China".
  • JD
    Jonathan D.
    12 May 2020 @ 06:25
    As always I enjoyed the conversation, loads of timely thoughtful analysis. With that said, I hope calling it the "Wuhan virus" doesn't become normalized on RV, it takes away from the legitimate criticisms the analyst made. Thoughtful people can be critical of China without the pathos farming of the style reminiscent of Fox News. As a side note, Mr. Bass's worldview seems to ignore the multitude of western decisions from 1839 to 1972 that helped shape current Chinese regime, which at times makes it difficult to listen to. Also, his strategy of confronting China with the "rule of law" is cringe inducing, that ship has unfortunately sailed in America.
    • CM
      C M.
      12 May 2020 @ 13:17
      Paul S. Definitely CCP propaganda...or someone who listened to leftist media when even they followed the 100+ year naming convention and called it the Wuhan virus...before they decided that its was somehow "improper" to do so. Sakes alive; I have never seen so many people triggered by a name--get over it, people.
    • MP
      Margaryta P.
      12 May 2020 @ 14:40
      There is Russian Flu, Spanish Flu, Marburg Virus. It is not uncommon to call diseases after places they origin. What's the problem with Wuhan Virus?
    • TP
      Timothy P.
      12 May 2020 @ 16:51
      I think its valid to recognize where a virus originated. Ebola, West Nile, there are plenty of examples where this is standard nomenclature. If you think Wuhan Virus is wrong, could you please clarify where you think it originated? All my sources say Wuhan, China.
    • DR
      David R.
      12 May 2020 @ 22:45
      The so-called Spanish Flu in fact originated in Kansas. It should be called American Flu, the worst in history. US was also fully responsible for spreading H1N1 to the rest of the world from one person in mexico. H1N1 killed at least five times as many as Covid19. Blame your problems on your corrupt, incompetent Dotard Admin, who did nothing for 3 months but deny and deflect. Well the dotard is still deflecting as the buck always stops elsewhere, never with him.
    • JD
      Jonathan D.
      14 May 2020 @ 09:13
      I'm not going to get in a tit for tat out of respect to the forum. I came to RV by way of the FT and The Economist, and remain comfortable with my sources of news. Lastly, I clearly wasn't "triggered" by what he calls Covid-19 and fail to see how that was implied by my comment.
  • IP
    Ivo P.
    13 May 2020 @ 04:40
    Raoul asked us to remain respectful so, in line with that, all I will say is that this is the first video from Real Vision I've ever shut off early. Got through 16 minutes. In my opinion the guest's constant political tint is what made the video unwatchable.
    • MF
      Maryam F.
      14 May 2020 @ 08:34
      It was tempting in the first 15 minutes but that is when it got interesting. You cannot analyse the global economy without getting into the politics, that’s missing the guts of it. Problem is the more politics you dig in to the more it affects your perspective (unless you are a psychopath). Before long, your humanity is tested and you are compelled to either speak up or join the dark side..
  • BB
    Blake B.
    14 May 2020 @ 05:52
    It's actually a little unnerving to hear Kyle being so positive. haha
  • RS
    Ryan S.
    14 May 2020 @ 05:34
    Raoul is really onto something with the liquidity adjustment for QE. That seems to me the heart of the matter to answer the most important message at this moment. Deflation or Inflation? In the US alone how much market capitalization has been destroyed? I heard someone say 20 trillion. QE and fiscal stimulus has been what, 5 trillion? That's an enormous bucket to fill and then if you consider that all the eurodollar markets outside the US need to also be capitalized too the ramifications are huge. Then take all the other deflationary effects like demographics, technology, debt... and its deflation all the way down because politicians and central bankers don't understand the hole we are in.
  • nk
    nevena k.
    14 May 2020 @ 03:44
    Kyle should be running for Congress or something. This sounded more like a political interview than investing macro view. He, pretty much, regurgitated his talking points from past several years. Not much of an insight, except for HK, imo.
  • KB
    Keith B.
    12 May 2020 @ 11:10
    What is the Hong Kong currency position?
    • BN
      Benjamin N.
      12 May 2020 @ 20:41
      Same Q
    • MA
      M A.
      14 May 2020 @ 03:41
      Same Q here as well
  • PF
    Patrick F.
    13 May 2020 @ 23:41
    Kyle's attention to the numbers/history is always excellent. That was great. But his describing Trump/Biden as just two "old guys" is so disturbing. The differences are so extreme and the stakes so high. Democrats want to rip up the Constitution and implement "Socialism" which actually seems more like a Chinese Totalitarian state. Trump is high energy and as sharp as they come. He's a billionaire businessman/outsider/anti-swamp with an amazing track record of defeating political opponents. Biden has been a lifelong politician, seems to be slow, have mental issues, and has accomplished almost nothing in 40 years in politics. "Three degrees and top half of class" turned out to be one degree and bottom of class so he also lies by a country mile. And I am Canadian so I don't have a party bias. I understand Kyle has to be careful what he says. So this may not be the best forum for real political discussions.
    • DC
      Douglas C.
      14 May 2020 @ 00:50
      OMG, Trump has no moral compass, is numb to humanity, understands nothing in the world but how it affects his enormously flawed ego and has no idea what empathy is. This attitude is the reason we're in such dire circumstances, You want to talk lying, Trump sets the bar higher than anyone else in human form, he's a psychopath for crying out loud, take another look dude, think about it a bit!
    • BP
      Benjamin P.
      14 May 2020 @ 02:01
      I would agree this is not the right forum and will degrade any intelligent conversion in this chat.
  • LS
    Lemony S.
    12 May 2020 @ 20:39
    Bass might be right about a V shaped recovery (in the equity markets) given the Fed operations and capital inflow that is likely to continue. The first 15 minutes or so was good to see. The devolution to another Bass diatribe on HK and China (which he is right on) is essentially a waste of time at this point. He has been saying it forever, nothing has happened, and none of us listeners can trade it anyway, which is the icing on the cake. So we don't really care apart from a dedicated discussion that we sought out ourselves. Regarding the political discussion at the end, I don't think Bass understands what really is going on, and it's surprising given his realization of just how corrupt the CCP is and the news media of the US that supports it, by and large. Trump will win going away, and talking about "old guys" and putting Biden (the most incapacitated man physically and mentally to ever run as candidate for US president) in the same category is breathtakingly devoid of analysis. So he gets things right, but not with great conviction or analysis. Trump will win in large part because the news media is based on lies and in large part because he is the incumbent as well. But to a greater degree he has a corpse as a challenger. Vaccine, Kyle? Worst prediction ever. You don't even need one. It's just not that problematic or lethal of a virus, which is already obvious and will be more obvious. We didn't need a vaccine for SARS, MERS, or H1N1 for similar reasons. We didn't quarantine or lockdown people for those. What happened to them? We didn't talk about them, because the reaction to the whole story here is essentially a non-story, historically. Largely, the whole thing is a central planning and power move by corrupt leaders, with propaganda and really contradictory, weird and disgusting anti-liberty measures taken for no good reason (except power and control for the elites = please bail us out).
    • PF
      Patrick F.
      14 May 2020 @ 00:06
      Kyle's Vaccine comment was too casual. If you study the issue for 30 minutes you know it's a #BigPharma scam . And worse.
  • MB
    Martin B.
    12 May 2020 @ 08:26
    I'm a former mutual fund analyst and I'd suggest that RV put up a profile for each interviewee. There were several manager on RV who's opinions are very interesting but there performance not so much. I think for transparency reasons the listeners should have access to that. It would also be good to state (in this profile) what his/her investment time horizon is. We know from the discussions between Raoul and Julian how important that knowledge is.
    • MC
      Mario C.
      12 May 2020 @ 11:26
      Very good point: Passport Capital HF manager: excellent vids on RV, HF closed due to redemptions? (poor perf?) Eclectica HF manager: same as above Praetorian Capital (Kuppy): great interview/video, his HF seems to be -42% in Q1 2020 (from https://valuewalkpremium.com/ ... ). They are all very intelligent, interviews very interesting. But having a consistant good track record is very hard, even for these bright people. To keep in mind when you listen to them.
    • TY
      Tony Y.
      12 May 2020 @ 13:07
      Many of these managers close due to redemptions in bull markets. It’s why the Baupists and Oaktree lock up capital for years. Eclectica would probably have beaten the market with the latest bear market. Those managers that are uncorrelated usually have redemptions. Look at Calpers firing Spitznagel. He made 6000% this year covering tail risk.
    • MS
      Michael S.
      12 May 2020 @ 14:00
      That's the thing: when you get into "macro", it's so much BS. A favorite line seems to be "What really interests me is...." WTF is that supposed to mean? A person believes Kyle's narrative and either invests with him or doesn't, but even with a few years a massive out performance, that they tout when they have it, net for costs, I'm sure they don't beat a diversified value portfolio of Vanguard mutual funds, long term. You'd know about it if they did.
    • DS
      Dan S.
      13 May 2020 @ 23:58
      I'm not aware of a way a hedge fund (that requires accredited investors) can post or discuss their results without being out of compliance with securities' law, unfortunately.
  • RG
    Robert G.
    13 May 2020 @ 08:09
    Whats with Kyle's fake books? We've seen a lot of libraries over the recent weeks - a fake one is new!
    • PF
      Patrick F.
      13 May 2020 @ 23:48
      Unless he's read them, he should get rid of them. And I don't think he's read them. Always a "tell" with every guru.
  • PL
    Paul L.
    13 May 2020 @ 20:24
    Yes, China will take back Hong Kong, by diplomacy or force, and agreed, that the HK property bubble is as big as it was in Japan in the 80s, the only problem here is that HK has been used as a safety deposit by mainlanders to store their wealth, also the backdoor around the capital control when it comes to FX transfer offshore, don't see much has changed as mainland China is goes thru much worse crack down when it comes to basic human rights and property rights than HK, except everyone is used to it, so no one is talking about it. It's in China's interest to maintain the peg until all the wealth preservation and money laundering is complete from mainland to offshore. Soros bet against HK peg before and lost, because it wasn't just HK monetary authority he's betting against, but the whole FX reserve of PBoC, will Bass win this time around?
  • pd
    peter d.
    13 May 2020 @ 20:10
    this was great. i love all the different viewpoints
  • MB
    Mickel B.
    13 May 2020 @ 19:45
    Interesting interview and viewpoint. Mr. Bass seems to be leaning more to the "V" or maybe even "✓" shaped recovery models. He's maybe not wrong about a certain demographics of people wanting OUT of lockdown and going places to spend money. However looking at the older population average age demographic which seems to be more affected by the virus, and disposable income disparity, it still seems an "L", or best case "U" model look most likely. Then add a possible second wave of infections coming before a vaccine seems more likely than a lightly tested rushed vaccine.
  • RL
    Radu L.
    13 May 2020 @ 19:23
    many good points in the interview and a really dumb one... how much tax is Hayman Cap paying in Germany when making a 10% gain on a SAP or Adidas trade?
  • AE
    Abou E.
    13 May 2020 @ 18:51
    I found Kyle comments about Chinese not paying capital gain taxes in the US very surprising. That’s the rule worldwide I.e. if you are a USC investing in Europe for example, you pay CG taxes in the US not in Europe. The rule per OECD on global taxation is that one pays taxes in its country of residence when it comes to financial investments ( real estate is a different matter). It is very complicated to change these international taxation agreements ( nothing is impossible). If the rule is changed, it will have to change for all overseas investors ( unless it is specifically targeted for China with all discriminatory aspects to it). If that’s the case, that might have a huge impact on capital flows to the US and create issues with double taxation and US investors would be liable for capital gain taxes in other countries for their overseas investments. What would be the impact on US markets? I am not defending the Chinese here just scratching my head how would that work ( if possible ) and what would the implications be? I am happy to hear any opinions?
  • WW
    Will W.
    13 May 2020 @ 18:49
    I don't have any strong views one way or another regarding Kyle. I just didn't think this interview brought much new to the discussion about "What's Next." That being said I do appreciate his point of view on China. I can say having served and worked all over the Middle East, unless one has spent serious time on the ground it is very difficult to gain a true grasp of the facts. I have seen things first hand that regardless of your news source no one is educating us about, and for that while this interview didn't do much for me, I appreciate the different perspectives.
  • GC
    George C.
    13 May 2020 @ 12:28
    One of the better Bass interviews I've seen in recent years, since he's become uber-political and a Trump apologist. Just wish Raoul would have reigned him in more in the second half of the interview and kept a sharper focus on investments. That said, it was an interview well worth watching.
    • WW
      Will W.
      13 May 2020 @ 18:42
      Don't understand the down votes on this. Kyle's views on China are very well documented and I would have liked to have seen Raoul push on him a bit for something new, different, and actionable ideas whether you agree or disagree with Kyle's position. The thesis for this series of interviews is "What's Next", and I thought this was more of a rehash of Kyle's well know positions.
  • MS
    Mark S.
    13 May 2020 @ 17:19
    Don't forget the second wave this winter.
  • PS
    Paul S.
    13 May 2020 @ 12:22
    I found Kyle incoherent. The biggest question (and the question we are trying to answer in this series) is whether we are going to make it through this crisis in one piece, or spiral out of control as Raoul posits. I could not for the life of me figure out where Kyle comes down on this fundamental question.
    • AP
      ANTHONY P.
      13 May 2020 @ 14:42
      He said he thinks we'll get a vaccine soon and that he's long theme parks that will surely die if we don't. He also said that he thinks the major indices go on to all time highs and that he doesn't subscribe to Raoul's dollar trade. That's pretty clear to me.
    • CM
      Chris M.
      13 May 2020 @ 15:54
      Contrary to some, I respect Bill Gates knowledge in the vaccine area but can't substantiate Bass' comment that Gates now sees a vaccine being ready in the fall. I know Fauci is still saying a year or two. The key is when does everyone have a vaccine injected in their body. Not going to hit the bars just because one is invented. So manufacturing of a safe vaccine is critical. Google Gerald Ford's effort to rush out a vaccine, one that did not insure he was re-elected. There is an underlying earnings power for companies like Disney when things normalize. And people are buying up cruises for next year at 25% of normal rates. So some will chase a deal, though not that helpful to a company that needs to cut prices 75% to generate demand. Still in Raoul's camp and not sure I want to be buying Six Flags right now, but then Kyle is talking his book. As far as China, Bass makes good points, but because of his bets against China, he is strongly biased in his opinions so I tend to discount that part of the conversation. Kyle is a smart guy, so enjoyed parts of the interview. Important to hear different views.
  • SL
    Stephen L.
    13 May 2020 @ 02:08
    So this interview is a glaring example of a disconnect from the majority and the minority. Kyle has no clue on what the majority is suffering or how it will affect the future. He says people are making 20% more being off work but fails to realize that a large group has yet to even receive a unemployment check. I know of people who had already been receiving unemployment and then stopped receiving checks when this happened. I would also like to point out that the majority of the economy was consumption based and the biggest consumers are the poor. They consumed most of the time on credit, what happens when they loose credit lines? I know for the wealthy their credit lines got even looser but not for the poor. So if the poor can charge their way through life what happens to the economy. This interview was a disappointment.
    • RP
      Ronald P.
      13 May 2020 @ 02:44
      Imagine believing that Kyle doesn't get that, or deriving that from this interview. Madness
    • RG
      Ryan G.
      13 May 2020 @ 03:12
      You might be right with some of the points you made. I don't agree with everything Kyle stated with restaurants and economy going to open up faster than what people think etc. But its great to get another opinion even if you don't agree with it all. I find it hard to see why it was disappointment. Just because you don't agree with everything he said?
    • CM
      Chris M.
      13 May 2020 @ 15:36
      The other issue on getting paid more on being laid off is that it ends in July and Republicans are talking like they will not renew at same levels. So the lower half will see a second hit this summer.
  • CB
    Clifford B.
    12 May 2020 @ 08:02
    Good interview but it is very difficult to listen to K. Bass bash China from the Pro USA high horse. The US has just as many, if not more skeletons hiding in the closet. How many nations have been either covertly or directly brow beaten into submission by the US for their own gains.
    • PS
      Paul S.
      12 May 2020 @ 08:12
      The idea that there is moral equivalence between the Chinese communist party and American democracy, for all its faults, is a travesty. You only know about American faults because there is a free press and a justice system to back it up and a political system to support both.
    • KB
      Keith B.
      12 May 2020 @ 10:51
      Thank you, Paul, for that comment.
    • CB
      Clifford B.
      12 May 2020 @ 11:03
      @Pauls Take the moral travesty to the many countries the US has invaded to acquire their natural resources or to support the US economic/dollar agenda.
    • CM
      C M.
      12 May 2020 @ 13:11
      Clifford B, What resources has the US "acquired" after "invading" a country? The last time I checked we do not have any colonies. Do come back to reality...
    • CB
      Clifford B.
      12 May 2020 @ 14:03
      @CM Still waiting for those Iraqi WMD's to be located. Halliburton much? Funny how Venezuela seems to be following a similar pattern. https://www.icij.org/investigations/windfalls-war/us-contractors-reap-windfalls-post-war-reconstruction-0/ https://www.nrc.gov/docs/ML0428/ML042800056.pdf
    • DW
      Daniel W.
      12 May 2020 @ 14:35
      The US military killed roughly 20.000.000 to 30.000.000 people between 1945 and now. Nothing to see here C.M., right?
    • TP
      Timothy P.
      12 May 2020 @ 16:49
      Please elaborate Clifford on which specific statements Kyle discussed that you think are inaccurate. He's in the business of making money, which requires objectivity. If he wasn't, he wouldn't be operating with substantial funds under management to begin with. Its easy to ring the bell and say someone is wrong -- its far harder to put facts behind an argument when it is groundless.
    • WC
      Wilson C.
      13 May 2020 @ 10:56
      it's hard to keep an open mind when you have pride (of your nationality, country, you name it) but IMHO it's not about China is USA, or Russia etc but more that govts play games while people are (generally) ignorant. USA (govt) has been playing the game longer and better (in recent history) than anyone else, even in south america (the Tom Cruise movie, American Made was quite eye opening).
    • JF
      Jordan F.
      13 May 2020 @ 15:30
      Clifford, Kyle isn't focusing on USA in this interview. Also, it is probably cheaper for him to discuss China than to discuss USA.
  • BT
    Billy T.
    12 May 2020 @ 16:14
    Why is gold supposed to do well in a deflationary environment?
    • PG
      Parminder G.
      12 May 2020 @ 16:31
      Because people anticipate lower interest rates, bond yields and currency devaluations and gold has held its value for millenia
    • CH
      Charlie H.
      12 May 2020 @ 16:32
      The money printer goes Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
    • AW
      Angela W.
      12 May 2020 @ 20:02
      Billy, I would like to understand this more also please. According to Hugh Hendry and Jeff Snider, Fed printing does not cause inflation. (Other than asset prices) The money gets stuck in bank reserves. Inflation occurs when commercial banks loan to the real economy. And right now credit is contracting not expanding. Raoul’s latest video indicates Real Rates May turn positive. If we end up with Deep Deflation, such as 1) Rising Real Rates, 2)Low oil prices 3) Strong dollar, isn’t that a headwind for gold?
    • WM
      Will M.
      13 May 2020 @ 14:25
      My personal view is that what is coming our way is not "just" a deflation, its a "debt" deflation in the extreme. Weak debt will evaporate into thin air and moderate debt will burn up in value dramatically. Currency will be debauched and therefore "money" i.e. gold and probably silver (poor persons gold) and probably platinum will become sought after for financial protection of wealth. Humans have not changed "mentally" in thousands of years according to the history I have read. Therefore gold and quite likely mining stocks will be in huge demand. However, I am prepared for a temporary precious metal liquidation in price although even if paper gold is $1000 an ounce, you may not actually be able to buy it for less than $1500 or $2000 or at all. If I am wrong........ I am screwed and history does indeed NOT rhyme. So be it.
  • RP
    Raoul P. | Founder
    12 May 2020 @ 15:17
    All, I don't know why everyone feels like this is a forum to express your views on China policy in terms of accusing people of being CCP trolls or being racists. Please leave that for youtube. It is not acceptable, whatever your view point. Also the ad hominem attacks of the comment you Kyle are NOT to be tolerated. I do understand that Kyles views are controversial, but you didn't see me attacking him because it doesn't agree with my view. It is not the forum for that. NO ONE cares about YOUR politics , except yourself, so keep them to yourself and discuss the content and what you learned or agreed/disagreed in a measured, respectful thoughtful manner. Don't ruin this precious community. Thank you. Raoul
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      12 May 2020 @ 15:19
      *commenters or Kyle
    • MC
      Michael C.
      12 May 2020 @ 16:02
      Thanks Raoul, I can't believe some of the comments that this great interview has brought up. If you don't agree with Kyle's views then have a civilized discussion.
    • BS
      Boris S.
      12 May 2020 @ 16:32
      Yeah, it really got to the point of me taking my "youtube trashtalk popcorn" in this comment section :D
    • BS
      Bevyn S.
      12 May 2020 @ 17:32
      Incredibly tired of everyone hijacking threads to post irrelevant information and using the comment section as a soap box for their dogmas and diatribes. Thanks for recognizing this. To help, perhaps RV can allow down votes to nullify up votes, to allow the community to decide net rating as 'top rated'.
    • PG
      Parminder G.
      12 May 2020 @ 17:32
      Please dont let those comments negatively influence your excellent commentary and efforts.
    • PG
      Petter G.
      12 May 2020 @ 18:31
      YouTube style comment sections is a side-effect of making RV so ridiculously cheap ;)
    • rc
      ritesh c.
      12 May 2020 @ 19:12
      The beauty of RV platform vs. other news/social media is its focus on financial/investment/economic point of views from practitioners of this science+art for a long time. These POVs are based on their own real-world experience and outcomes. Immaterial of their views' divergence or contrary nature to our own; we must respect their time and generosity of spirit to come on this platform and share them. We don't have to agree with these views, in fact I personally appreciate the contrary or differing view. Having said that, I request all of us, RV subscribers, to keep this forum clean, intellectually curious, and information. We all talk about our biases and pride in overcoming these biases to select great trades/investments. Lets not cheapen our own intellect by being victims of these same biases - and that too in such a public forum. We all are way better than that!
    • CM
      Cory M.
      12 May 2020 @ 19:13
      The challenge with this incredible Real Vision growth is that policing seems to be increasingly necessary. Thank you for your words Raoul. I wish there was a way to 'pin' this comment to the top of the comments thread so that all community members can be properly informed about Real Visions expectations regarding engagement!
    • MK
      Mike K.
      12 May 2020 @ 21:55