The Third Act

Published on
May 1st, 2020
Duration
78 minutes


The Third Act

The Interview ·
Featuring Hugh Hendry

Published on: May 1st, 2020 • Duration: 78 minutes

Hugh Hendry, founder and former CIO of Eclectica Asset Management, joins Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal to analyze the state of markets at this unprecedented juncture of uncertainty and to reflect on a lifetime of macro investing. Raoul and Hugh explore how gold could perform in a debt deflation and whether central bank largesse is sufficient to help risk assets weather the storm. After a thorough investigation into the interplay between volatility and price, they contemplate the prospect of a "gilded depression" – one in which cataclysmic economic disaster is kept solvent by never-ending fiscal stimulus and where asset prices are continually re-inflated by incessant injections of central bank liquidity. Hugh can be found on Twitter at @hendry_hugh and on Instagram at hughhendryofficial. Filmed on April 29, 2020, over Skype.

Comments

Transcript

  • MG
    Matthew G.
    3 May 2020 @ 13:07
    What do they mean when they say there is a carry cost on gold? “We need another trade to pay the carry on gold”
    • MZ
      Mark Z.
      25 May 2020 @ 18:13
      someone is holding the physical gold for you, or maintaining the linkage of synthetic product to gold price?
  • IP
    Ivo P.
    3 May 2020 @ 05:52
    Hi Raoul, What can I say other than THANK YOU for yet another stimulating interview/discussion and extremely high-quality piece of content. I am such a happy subscriber. My question is merely from the point of 16:12 remaining - after you ask him "What about your old trade?" Didn't quite understand how your proposition is a response to Paul's concern about the moments where gold acts like a FAANG stock. How does your hypothetical portfolio with long gold/short Russell 2000 with the two "wing" trades address this? A gold long and Russell short both take a hit in the moments where gold acts like a FAANG and corrects. The wings were what, extremely-out-of-the-money S&P puts and a US government debt butterfly? Yah the two wings would do better but neither could outdo the hit that your core would take. Just seems like a highly costly hedge to me that would be a weight around your neck during the core position's rise and too weak to save you when the core position falters. Also I am a relative novice so please don't think I'm speaking from any level of authority. Would love a response but understand if you're busy or inundated with other comments; maybe a fellow subscriber could help me understand. Thanks again for the great content!!
    • IP
      Ivo P.
      3 May 2020 @ 06:07
      Not Paul, meant to say Hugh, apologies.
    • GD
      Gaurang D.
      3 May 2020 @ 13:13
      He closed the fund in 2017 due to consistently poor annual performances since 2009.
    • WM
      Wolfgang M.
      3 May 2020 @ 17:48
      Hugh corrected himself on Twitter: he didnt mean FAANG, he meant to say TIPS.
    • IJ
      Ian J.
      22 May 2020 @ 02:37
      TIPS??
  • MD
    Matt D.
    18 May 2020 @ 03:53
    Thank you RV - brilliant lads. I found it interesting that Raoul's instincts kicked in mid discussion when rather than commenting on the "morality" or "correctness" or the MMT response, he rather saw an opportunity for a trade. For me, seeing these instincts and skills from "traders" in the video-interviews is invaluable. Another example - Hugh wanting to be "pushed over the edge" (of the deflation cliff). Thanks again.
  • JC
    Jonas C.
    14 May 2020 @ 12:42
    Pretty enjoyable out of the box thinking. One thing took my notice. Hugh referred to the Weimar Republic Niall Ferguson warning analogy from previous recession. Now related to the recent Kyle Bass interview and the dollar strenghting hypothesis, I really start wondering if there could be no probability of a current upside-down analogy. Germany debtor as being China Creditor, EU Allies creditor as being US debtor as the third party US lender of last resort as being the 3rd world debtor of last resort. Untill 1929 came along, respective to the US dollar prop up now during Corona and no money printing possibilities in the already distressed countries. Perhaps this hypothesis could be studied along with it's outcome probability.
  • SY
    Sandeep Y.
    5 May 2020 @ 06:59
    Can someone summarize the trade here? Step1: Long gold Step2: Short Russel? if so what time frame? (I am assuming atleast 12 months out? if so whats the guarantee that that time frame will work?) Step 3 : Long on SPY for 4000/5000? if so, what the time frame? Anything else?
    • TY
      Tony Y.
      9 May 2020 @ 23:32
      It’s different trades. Long gold. Sell an out of the money put and buy out of the money calls. With the option premium being skewed towards puts right now, you can buy calls cheaper. If volatility goes up while stocks go up then the premium structure may change causing the out of the money calls to be repriced higher and the puts to get cheaper. More than likely you would use leap calls and shorter term puts if there was premium to gain. Reduces time risk. Risk is naked put. So you need to buy a put to lessen downside risk.
    • TY
      Tony Y.
      9 May 2020 @ 23:42
      Raoul mentioned Russell to fund it. Russell should have higher put premium since it tends to be more volatile. Use russell for put. SPY for call. May offer a lower out of pocket trade. The risk is still naked put. An easier way may be to buy leap then sell calls against it to pay for trade. Less downside risk. I think they were just trying to figure out how to get the least costly almost riskless trade.
    • TY
      Tony Y.
      10 May 2020 @ 02:35
      I see now after watching again. In the trade they are long gold. short russell. Long call on stocks. You have reduced risk of short going against you by using a call for a cheap way to hedge short risk. If market crashes it should offset some of the loss on gold if it goes down at the same time. It reduces downside risk of being long gold in a crash where stocks and gold moves down together which is the risk Hugh expressed.
    • TY
      Tony Y.
      10 May 2020 @ 02:39
      The out of money call is a separate trade. It’s cheap. Look at ETFs for different US indices to find one that cost and timing works. May only get Jan 22 call on one etf but October on another. Another way is out of money put on and inverse etf. Same concept but not as clean of a play as regular direction etf. They were brainstorming how to fund it but the risk of a naked put is not worth it
  • TY
    Tony Y.
    10 May 2020 @ 00:36
    Brilliant. Hugh’s track record may not be the Best but that does not mean he is wrong. Early is hard. Being non correlated is a tough way to manage. You are paid to bring buoyancy in bad markets. Usually you underperform during good markets. Spitznagel is another example. Buying insurance for tail risk. Costly until you need it. . The US stock market has averaged about 4.5% over the last 20 years. Very few have impressive track record. Sometimes in the market you can be smart and can see the future. You don’t know when though. It’s about betting correctly. Size it wrong and you are hurt.
  • VD
    Violeta D.
    8 May 2020 @ 22:27
    This was a great discussion. I appreciate Real Vison bringing it to me. I have been thinking about a "safe way" that will allow me to to finance my bets on gold, the dollar and even the S&P. What do you think about using possibly the most predictable player's actions to carry the costs? I think that there is a very high probability that the Fed will support investment grade bonds (LQD for example). Those bonds should also be the safe yeild for pension funds, that will really need it in an environment where 10 year treasuries yeild 0.6%. How about selling a put spread on LQD or an iron condor skewed to the upside to finance those trades? I am a complete newbie in the field with absolutely no financial background, but I am fascinated by it and I'd appreciate anyone's feedback.
    • TY
      Tony Y.
      9 May 2020 @ 18:53
      If a newbie don’t get into complex options strategies. You can buy an at the money LEAP on GLD for 10-12%. If you go out of the money you can get it cheaper. Current ATM I could put 100k into trade with 400-500k upside if gold hits $3k. . Max downside is 100k. You can adjust amount up and down based on your portfolio size.
    • TY
      Tony Y.
      9 May 2020 @ 18:56
      Another note, when you deal with bonds in any wrapper, the moves have convexity. Both up and down.
    • TY
      Tony Y.
      9 May 2020 @ 23:52
      You can use LEAPS on UUP to play dollar trade. You can sell calls against your leap to repay yourself. Of out of pocket costs. It takes work if the position starts to move in your direction though. You have to roll the calls you are selling to pay for trade
    • TY
      Tony Y.
      10 May 2020 @ 00:04
      The risk with LQD is that liquidity issues can arise and prices move more than you think. Fallen angels could effect price also as we go into default cycle. US treasury market may be better choice. Not sure if premiums though. The further out you go the more risk you have with duration volatility. If I was new in the market I think the buying of a longer term call/ leap and then selling next few month calls makes more sense.
  • SP
    Steve P.
    9 May 2020 @ 22:38
    I used to think the “voices” were Schiz. Nope. Just neurodiversity. I have adhd - happens 24/7, constant thinking when not driving, listening to music or watching TV. Deep consciousness - that’s all. A feature of a creative and hyper intuitive mind.
  • MH
    Mark H.
    5 May 2020 @ 02:48
    It is worrying when non monetary plumbing experts comment on monetary plumbing. For example M2 is an obsolete money measure yet used in the analysis. In fact the whole equation of exchange MV = PT which became the basis for the quantity theory of money is no longer relevant. Believing it is is why so money confuse QE with money printing. Should get Jeff Snider, Perry Mehrling and Nathan Tankus on. People who really understand money and it’s plumbing. Nevertheless - love RealVision
    • NA
      Naiem A.
      5 May 2020 @ 09:45
      and Steve Keen
    • MH
      Mark H.
      5 May 2020 @ 09:52
      Shame on me for forgetting Professor Keen.
    • SS
      Steven S.
      8 May 2020 @ 04:10
      Keen is brilliant. Would love to see him comment.
  • AH
    Andrew H.
    7 May 2020 @ 23:38
    Can't wait for Hugh to fall down the bitcoin rabbit hole. He's going to make R. Pal and Dan look like bears one day.
  • TR
    Thomas R.
    7 May 2020 @ 19:53
    seen the princes of the yen on youtube. It's brilliant
  • MP
    Michael P.
    7 May 2020 @ 01:03
    Not aware of Hugh's performance numbers but really enjoyed the back and forth between the two. Loved the look on Raul's face when his thesis was challenged. Really good stuff gentlemen.
  • NA
    Naiem A.
    3 May 2020 @ 15:26
    I am a little surprised (and disappointed) that Raul and Hugh have only recently heard of Richard Werner. He known for having coined the term Quantitative Easing...
    • DH
      Dominic H.
      6 May 2020 @ 23:09
      Yep, I was working with him at the time!
  • WM
    Will M.
    5 May 2020 @ 19:05
    I am sorry, and I see all the positive comments here, but I have never taken to Hugh Hendry and considering his fund failed I just can't see the attraction. There is no doubt this was a very real "to and fro" discussion but it was so disjointed and Hugh Henry seems to just love his own voice. Someone below contrasted this discussion with the one undertaken by Grant Williams with Tony Deden and I couldn't agree more. I suspect a real winner like Tony Deden would avoid Hugh Hendry at all costs.
    • PS
      Paul S.
      6 May 2020 @ 20:06
      Exactly my impression. Not a guy to take seriously.
  • CG
    Chris G.
    6 May 2020 @ 16:25
    Looked at his 2003-2009 performance was fabulous. Got the gains in 2003, hit the shorts in 2008. Then messed up after 2009 and the new super easy money era as were many smart people (and regular people:). He admits to his personal angle on the bailouts after 2008 that cost him. No hubris just raw honesty imo.
  • RS
    Richard S.
    6 May 2020 @ 13:23
    I get it. Risk adjusted returns are what everyone is trying to achieve with minimum risk attached. How you get there in my opinion doesn't matter. The end result does. Whilst Hugh has charisma and I really like to listen to him there seems to be an unfortunate amount of hubris which is not warranted or reflected by his fund performance. But, he is sitting in St Bart's, filthy rich for knowing not performing...
  • BJ
    Bryan J.
    6 May 2020 @ 12:01
    This will be a classic, lots of information, interesting but also just fun
  • IP
    Ivo P.
    6 May 2020 @ 06:45
    I've started to understand the trade better. Correct me if I'm wrong/share your input/ignore me if you think I'm not worth your time. Here goes. Core position: 1) long gold 2) short US equities (Raoul suggests short S&P or Russell, more on this later) Wing bets: 1) deeply out-of-money US equity calls - extremely cheap (gotta remember to roll them over when they expire) - protects you from big losses in your equities short in core position 2) US treasury debt derivative butterfly - I have no clue how to construct it - both of them say it's also super cheap - protects you from sharp nasty corrections in gold position when interest rates go negative - WHY? Why would an derivative butterfly becomes profitable by rates going negative at the same time when gold drops? What is the linkage here? From above re: short US equities. If this part of your core position is to profit from falling US equities, why short the S&P or the Russell? Why not short the absolute most overvalued? The concentration in the top 5 S&P holdings is like never before, why not short those? Or the FAANGs, alternatively? (specifically the NYFANG index)
    • IP
      Ivo P.
      6 May 2020 @ 06:46
      (excuse bad grammar explaining #2 wing bet...)
  • MS
    Michiel S.
    2 May 2020 @ 10:44
    This interview is devaluing the real vision brand. Hugh Hendry is hardly credible with his trackrecord post 2008. This ultimately led to him leaving the business. Having grand macro ideas is easy. Having grand macro ideas that turn out to be right must be extremely difficult. Hugh Hendry’s background and his performance in this interview lead me to believe that at some point, when he was a young, fresh and quirky man his talents for self promotion helped him a great deal, markets and Crispin Odey did the rest. He is scruffy and no longer fresh. Markets have been hostile towards his ideas for the best of the last ten years and Odey is no longer there to guide him. He lost tens of millions of $ of his clients’ money and left the business because it was no longer fun. Just the smugness of it. He is now dabbling in property in St Barths. Nuf said.
    • MS
      Michael S.
      2 May 2020 @ 14:55
      My fave compare/contrast on RV is the surfer boy interview that GRANT WILLIAMS did with Hendry with the snowy mountain interview GRANT did with Anthony Deden. Their investment ideas and their personalities couldn't be more different, and guess who's still in the business. Right, the old guy who's like another version of Warren Buffett, buying and holding cheap, closely held, and growing investments with moats. It's easy to have one idea in macro, but having a string of even two or three of them that you actually execute? The Deden interview almost made me quit RV, because it helped me realize that so many of the people on here have no idea what they are talking about, and Hendry pretty much exemplifies that personage. The money's not that much to me, so I'm staying, but on principle, I felt like if I was polluting my mind with market/financial pornography, I might be worse off.
    • WM
      Will M.
      5 May 2020 @ 18:48
      Absolutely guys, I think your comments are soooooo on point.
  • CW
    Christian W.
    5 May 2020 @ 16:44
    Signed up for RV for this "amazing" discussion. Couldn't be more underwhelmed... guy is focussed on talking his book of speculative real estate and can't answer or confront any question/topic affecting those of us in the Lumpenproletariat. High absence of self awareness by Mr. Hendry but "great trade bro" so all good.
  • cs
    connor s.
    5 May 2020 @ 15:24
    great minds, exactly why RV is RV
  • JT
    Joseph T.
    5 May 2020 @ 14:37
    Fantastic Thank you
  • ID
    Ian D.
    5 May 2020 @ 13:27
    Hugh's recommendation of "The Princes of the Yen" is vital. This is the first piece of content I have found which gives anyone with a macro view an explanation of what may actually be taking place in the US. The "why" seems to be much more elusive than the "what" and the "how" at this point. The author of the original book, Richard Werner is on twitter here: https://twitter.com/scientificecon I also highly recommend recommend reading the CARES Act https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/748/text#toc-H25CA409D9D2844399CF965A38F83F6C6 Keep up the good work RV!
  • it
    ian t.
    4 May 2020 @ 15:32
    Mr Pal you fucking genius I think I have finally worked out why you are so positive on bitcoin!
    • IF
      Ian F.
      4 May 2020 @ 15:51
      Go on @ian t...
    • it
      ian t.
      5 May 2020 @ 10:40
      Hi Ian F. I don't really want to give it away. But I'll give you a couple of hints. If I'm right (and I've been wrong often in my life) it has to do with some or all of the following concepts: - the total value of wealth in the world stays constant more or less (except over very long periods of time) - the great rotation - pets.com (possibly but not necessarily)
  • NN
    Noel N.
    5 May 2020 @ 09:35
    Incredible interview, real value adding perspectives. Thank you RV for doing what you do. Also found Hugh's recommendation over here. Simply eye opening. Princes of the Yen: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5Ac7ap_MAY
  • KC
    Kaiwen C.
    5 May 2020 @ 06:38
    Not sure if others are experiencing this. But for me using AirPods, anytime I increase video speed above 1x, the audio cuts out after a while and I have to pause and start to get it back. Please look into this tech fix, cheers!
  • BC
    Burton C.
    3 May 2020 @ 19:22
    Thank You so much Hugh for mentioning the youtube Documentary "Princes of the Yen" . I watched it and OMG, blown away. A great follow on after one reads the book "creature"
    • JB
      James B.
      5 May 2020 @ 05:22
      Prof. Richard Werner wrote the book
  • SR
    Suds R.
    3 May 2020 @ 08:22
    I am a complete newbie here and recently signed up to RV to hopefully learn something. This conversation was way above my head, so could someone explain to me why someone who could probably afford to probably buy a 5M home in cash would still borrow the money if the interest rates are so low.
    • JC
      Jerry C.
      3 May 2020 @ 08:50
      Could be many reasons, but you partly answered your own question there. Why not if the interest rate is so low? Cheap to service that debt and you can reallocate your capital elsewhere
    • BC
      Burton C.
      3 May 2020 @ 19:29
      Of course pretty simple really. Hold a fixed rate loan which allows one to capture the debasement of a currency vs a real asset (property) This assumes the property market does not deflate as a result of similar assets being backed by mortgages which collapse. Judging from his comments that this is a rich elite hang out, they may remain above the fray.
    • TY
      Tony Y.
      5 May 2020 @ 01:54
      It also transfers risk back to the bank. You take out the loan and pull the money from the entity to personal or another entity. Very common strategy in real estate.
  • aD
    amol D.
    3 May 2020 @ 23:03
    Outstanding! Such different vibes during the interviwe between Raoul and Grant..very complementary.
    • SB
      Stephen B.
      5 May 2020 @ 01:14
      I agree, as my much as I admire and respect Grant, it took Raoul to get the best out of Hugh.
  • db
    david b.
    5 May 2020 @ 00:05
    Rubbish.... Hugh has a TERRIBLE LT track record (even a broken clock is right twice a day) and if you think that owning a "Gold Box"in the islands is the key to financial well being??...than this is clearly the opinion of someone who has lived and died by investing OPM for a long time....total respect to Raoul....clearly articulated framework and quite frankly put (supposedly) his personal asset allocation out there (1/4 USD,1/4 BTC, 1/4 Gold, 1/4 trading)....would like to see all of the guests come on and post their positions clearly with no financial psycho babel obfuscation....just, "this is how I'm positioned and I'll let you know when/why I changed"....I've been an advisor (in the US) for 33 years and have practiced a sustainable global asset allocation discipline with retail products that the PEOPLE can utilize to capture real returns....I'm sick of hearing this shit passed off as investment insight....plenty of great stuff on RV...this isn't it.
  • Sv
    Sid v.
    4 May 2020 @ 23:45
    Thank you RV. Surprisingly educational. refreshing.
  • DL
    Dmitry L.
    4 May 2020 @ 16:46
    As good as it can gets!
  • JK
    Jonas K.
    4 May 2020 @ 12:45
    To summarise, their idea was to a) of course long gold, and b) simultaneously short and long S&P? So buy puts + buy crazy calls at 5,000 S&P? One of the best interviews I've ever seen. I'm in the middle of exams but still spend most of my time on this haha
  • SR
    Suds R.
    3 May 2020 @ 08:22
    I am a complete newbie here and recently signed up to RV to hopefully learn something. This conversation was way above my head, so could someone explain to me why someone who could probably afford to probably buy a 5M home in cash would still borrow the money if the interest rates are so low.
    • HM
      Hugh M.
      3 May 2020 @ 14:39
      That's a very good question and I was wondering myself. You also have to ask why he's suddenly resurfaced in the financial arena now that the tourist trade (even if his potential clients are at the uber-high end) is not looking so good.
    • SG
      Scott G.
      3 May 2020 @ 17:03
      Because cash is king. If he can ensure he adequately covers his liabilities against his chosen risk profile, then using the remaining cash to invest will provide a better return than the capital appreciation of his home. In a recession, or even a potential depression, sitting in cash to avoid losses AND wait for the opportunities is the key play
    • TH
      Truman H.
      3 May 2020 @ 21:22
      "Because cash is king." Unless the purchasing power of your currency were to be compromised by runaway fiscal and monetary policies. At which point cash could start to resemble a serf...
    • SR
      Suds R.
      4 May 2020 @ 10:18
      ah right. thanks guys for the answers. There you go I have learned something. Hopefully more time spent here will help me identify those "opportunities". He does seem like a pretty cool dude though! :)
  • GO
    Glenn O.
    4 May 2020 @ 06:36
    Excellent discussion, felt like I was behind a two way mirror, or a fly on the wall. Thanks Glenn O
  • JY
    Jayson Y.
    2 May 2020 @ 03:20
    Is the driver of his SPY call position purely inflation based? or is there something else underlying the these for a higher equity market a year + from now?
    • JW
      Jim W.
      4 May 2020 @ 04:42
      The fed. It's something I've struggled with. This amount of fed buying is unheard of..
  • NM
    Niall M.
    3 May 2020 @ 22:22
    Anybody know a broker that offers USD/SAR or USD/AED ? Preferably with Margin
    • IA
      Ibrahim A.
      4 May 2020 @ 04:20
      Saudi Interbank 3M rates are below 3M LIBOR presently, hard to get a USD/SAR but if you can get a bank to lend to you in SAR and then park that money elsewhere that should do the trick.
  • CP
    Curt P.
    1 May 2020 @ 23:03
    Biggest risk to the deflation/insolvency trade idea is that the gvmt can change the rules of the game. Take the restaurant example, instead of merchant insolvent, reduce rents until merchant is solvent. Property owner if leveraged will default, debts gone, restart. For long time the gvmt has been active in backstopping the rentier class, providing ever more debt to keep the whole thing afloat. Deleveraging this whole thing just means that the rentier class takes a huge haircut. Big worry of a deleveraging event is that foreigners will purchase the defaulted assets - just forbid them. Same for all the offshore money - just forbid from repatriation. This upcoming insolvency event will have little impact on the working class, but it will give a massive haircut to the rentiers. That's a positive. Rentiers are an economic parasite which detracts from productivity, so removing them is necessary if you want to be globally competitive. And being globally competitive is pretty darn important when you are competing with China or Japan. It's not an option. If instead the gvmt inflates the debts, it doesn't solve the rentier problem (in fact it rewards the rentier), all it does is crush the bonds in the pension funds, and that's not enough. A society which rewards rentiers, is a society in which the best minds will gravitate towards being a rentier instead of being productive - that is a massive misallocation which has devastating long term consequences. Regarding the high unemployment checks, that essentially is a minimum wage increase b/c it creates a labor shortage, something again that ultimately must be dealt with by reducing the rent paid by the merchant in order to be FCF positive. Hugh has actually built himself not a golden box, but instead a highly negative convex trade that is about to be wiped out by the very real destruction of the rentier classes. He might as well have been a contemporary art dealer, because they are going to be wiped out also for the same reason.
    • BS
      Bevyn S.
      1 May 2020 @ 23:45
      Lol. You've got it all figured out huh Curt
    • MK
      Michael K.
      2 May 2020 @ 03:09
      Disagree sir
    • IZ
      Ileana Z.
      2 May 2020 @ 03:43
      They will indeed wipe out some of the rentier class ...just the middle class millionaires. The St Barts class always gets away with the loot!
    • GB
      Gold B.
      2 May 2020 @ 04:13
      omg I love this stuff. How can I subscribe to your bear newsletter, sir?
    • JP
      Jan P.
      2 May 2020 @ 04:59
      And, the realignment of power from rentiers to mom n' pops has been a long time coming. It might not be so clean cut, as the govt may both bail the restaurant by cutting rent, while simultaneously bailing the capitalist on the other side too. Productivity increases, however, will rely on the availability of opportunities for smallish enterprises, and that is going to be inhibited by bailing capitalists.
    • RW
      Richard W.
      2 May 2020 @ 17:25
      Totally outside the thinking of self satisfied finance classes who earn multiple 000’s x more than doctors etc. For shuffling bits of money around the world. It’s going to hit them between the eyes at some point.
    • TW
      Thomas W.
      2 May 2020 @ 18:36
      Art dealers make more money than anyone except possibly gold vault owners during periods like this.
    • SD
      S D.
      2 May 2020 @ 23:41
      Rentiers, foreigners, and offshore capital control the political process.
    • SD
      S D.
      2 May 2020 @ 23:42
      So far.
    • MC
      Michael C.
      3 May 2020 @ 09:18
      I can hear "Hong Kong" (among other places) echoing in my mind for some reason when I read this post.
    • DO
      David O.
      3 May 2020 @ 12:52
      Curt, wouldn't the exact form of intervention be the key? each country choosing different industries to back and different incentives (more entrepreneurial vs more idealistic) should really change the relative currency values. the politicians who happen to be in power will make all the difference in each country future
    • HM
      Hugh M.
      3 May 2020 @ 14:28
      Hugh has actually built himself not a golden box .... that is about to be wiped out by the very real destruction of the rentier classes. Agreed, and with the virus situation he likely realises it himself which is why he's now resurfaced in the financial arena.
    • WG
      Wade G.
      3 May 2020 @ 14:57
      @ Curt, please respond to S.D.'s assertion... why lay out your observations and leave unaddressed how/why a political process w/ profound inertia reverses... addressing that is probably more important than quibbling about your initial observations. Thx in advance.
    • CP
      Curt P.
      3 May 2020 @ 18:29
      Wade /SD, Yes it is true that the political process in the USA/UK is controlled by wealthy elites. But when their actions result in undermining national security in very significant way, then new elites from the national security apparatus take over. That is what happened in Russia when Putin took over. In a Great Power state like the US, which is not only losing its value-chain dominance (to China) and losing its Eurasian economic empire, but most importantly losing its Eurasian security position, then NatSec will not stand idly by. NatSec did not come by that security position by accident - millions of people were sacrificed for it. The idea that it would be voluntarily relinquished so that US wealthy elites can continue to profit from China is absurd. This elite civil war is being waged in the US right now. Geopolitics drives all, especially internal configurations. Capitalist states are long term inherently unsustainable b/c the wealthy elites prioritize profits over civilizational fitness. The Japanese/German/Korean/Chinese model of economics is superior.
    • WG
      Wade G.
      3 May 2020 @ 18:51
      Thanks for your reply Curt. Can u suggest an author, a source, a portal, anything that u find instructive on the views you've expressed here? Thank you.
    • CP
      Curt P.
      3 May 2020 @ 19:24
      Wade, you might enjoy reading Bruno Macaes' second book about the value-chain dominance issues. There are various lectures from CSIS about US security position in Eurasia. Also look at US Naval War College. Intra-elite battles, try James Burnham 'The Machiavellians'. The National Interest has many articles of interest about security positions. my twitter @curtpeterswg02 - has a link to a Mac Owens paper
    • JF
      John F.
      3 May 2020 @ 19:40
      @Curt P @Wade G try Michael Hudson’s Killing the Host and Super Imperialism.
    • WG
      Wade G.
      4 May 2020 @ 04:03
      Thanks much Curt and John, W
  • JA
    John A.
    2 May 2020 @ 13:53
    Love how Hugh thinks you can give dishwashers double universal credit/unemployment in a world where Rand Paul and Mitch McConnell are in government. In America, we only give free money to corporations with lobbyists. Anything given to working people is abhorrent and needs to be vilified. I have to listen to CNBC talk daily about how the extra $600 dollars going to these folks a month is going to end capitalism. We won't give people the money to shelter in place because they simply don't want to. We would rather open things up again and risk their lives to ensure that asset values don't fall. It is these actions that have me convinced that Raoul is right. We could avoid a coming collapse by doing something sensible, but we will force the issue by pretending that nothing is wrong as they try to reinflate the bubble of a market being carried by FAANG and a bunch of zombie companies.
    • DB
      David B.
      2 May 2020 @ 14:23
      You got the facts wrong. The UE support is $600 per WEEK, on top of what each state provides. In California you can get up to 450 + 600 = 1050 per week. That's an annual rate of $54,600, and you can get it for 4 months.
    • JA
      Jonathan A.
      4 May 2020 @ 03:54
      Yeah but it can’t reinflate this time because if they can’t get millennials employed, who will pay for social security for boomers?
  • JC
    Joseph C.
    3 May 2020 @ 04:32
    I came away from this with the idea that it is neither gold nor bitcoin which awaits its day in the sun. If you have access to 0.25% money from Central Banks, you leverage your cash to buy assets from poor middle class workers and small business owners. Lesson of the GFC, Wall Street bought up single family homes and are now the biggest landlords in America. This will just be another asset grab. You puke up your St Barths villa with a 5% mortgage and Hugh grabs it at next to zero carrying cost. Explain to me again why you want to leverage your capital buying a rock or a digital entry on a computer.
    • JA
      Jonathan A.
      4 May 2020 @ 03:46
      You’re ignoring the political risk. The govt forced business to close for the virus. Jobs were lost so payments can’t be made on mortgages for now. To then foreclose on people, what’s happening in Michigan with armed protestors at the statehouse will be every state & city in America with 2-3x the crowds. The financial risk becomes real world risk, the risk of serious violence. Maybe some politicians are willing to role the dice but most of them don’t have a backbone to withstand that kind of obvious pressure & will prevent foreclosures at all costs.
    • JA
      Jonathan A.
      4 May 2020 @ 03:49
      Additionally, renting an apt in a deflationary environment is a huge gamble for an investor. You may have to mark down significantly your rents, & if this can’t cover mortgage on the purchasing price, you’re not generating any cash flow. You’d need the property sector to really bottom out to 2008 levels for it to be worth the investment. We’ll absolutely see declining rental prices for years to come in many markets (not all), as the wages just won’t be there for millions of people. Plus, Tucker even began profiling vulture PE firms & how the negatively impact American workers. The younger GOP senators are using formerly left-wing critiques of the financial sector (like Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley, Marco Rubio). They are the future leaders of the GOP & of America (since the DNC has zero ideas these days at how to reform anything). When the GOP are the ones criticizing the financial system, that’s when history doesn’t repeat itself. They generally get what they want.
  • BP
    Barry P.
    4 May 2020 @ 03:12
    Awesome Hugh/Raoul....thx
  • PP
    Patrick P.
    4 May 2020 @ 02:28
    Here's all you need to know .. not a really impressive record..... average at best. https://www.valuewalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/TEF1602.pdf
  • BS
    Benjamin S.
    4 May 2020 @ 00:47
    The Eddie Irvine of Finance
  • SV
    Satish V.
    3 May 2020 @ 02:35
    owning a property in an island is long volatility? how? Thanks for the explanation.
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      4 May 2020 @ 00:38
      Literally a safe haven??
  • TD
    T D.
    3 May 2020 @ 23:01
    Has Raoul elaborated in another videos/mediums that butterfly trade he talked about during this interview?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      4 May 2020 @ 00:19
      Yes, in Real Vision Pro.
  • MP
    Michael P.
    3 May 2020 @ 23:16
    "Experts are always wrong" Beautiful!
  • SS
    Stan S.
    3 May 2020 @ 23:16
    This was one of the best pieces I have ever seen on this service. I second the comments below on the "unscripted" nature, the free flow, the routine collapse from idea back to underlying principal. I would subscribe to Hugh reviewing his monthly letter on what he thought, what happened and what he learned. Just tell me where to click! And just tell me that Hugh Hendry will be presenting and hanging out at the next Black List summit.
  • MO
    Michael O.
    3 May 2020 @ 23:10
    Hugh operates on a different wavelength. You could almost see his brain processing Raoul's comments - yes, yes, no, maybe, You had to work to get the meat out of this one. Well worth it. Most enjoyable interview in a long time, and that's saying something. MO
  • CS
    Charles S.
    3 May 2020 @ 22:45
    Hedge Fund Auteur
  • DD
    Daniel D.
    1 May 2020 @ 20:07
    I believe gold does well regardless. If all goes well, the S&P puts go up in value while deflation becomes obvious to the masses and the market falls. Then, when that has become obvious, I plan on flipping it and buying deeply out of the money calls on the S&P 500 expecting inflation.
    • MK
      Michael K.
      2 May 2020 @ 03:14
      Wasn’t end of Feb and 3/23 the time to open close and reopen that sequence already, in very short order?
    • DD
      Daniel D.
      2 May 2020 @ 17:32
      For short term gains for sure but, I'm playing a very long game here.
    • DR
      Derrick R.
      3 May 2020 @ 19:47
      Daniel, I was thinking along the same lines but.. what expiry would you go for on the calls? Do you have an idea now or waiting to look at the charts when the time comes?
  • CT
    Crispim T.
    1 May 2020 @ 22:16
    Had to downvote. Have a hard time taking advice from investors who dismiss BTC these days. Always feels too lazy, lacking DYOR and the corresponding open mind and analytic approach to the past 11 years of hard Bitcoin data. And too much unfocused shilling of StBarts. RV needs to focus harder in the future and less on the present. BTC is both.
    • NA
      Nicholas A.
      2 May 2020 @ 06:05
      Listen I own and love bitcoin and although the risk reward is definitely there by a mile, I recognize the possibility that my investment can go to zero. Yea maybe he hasn't looked into the it fully but there are other assets and trade ideas out there and dismissing them is shortsighted.
    • MC
      Melvin C.
      2 May 2020 @ 09:06
      RV is full of bitcoin bulls... give it a rest Crispim, we need *more* guests to dismiss it...
    • WG
      Wade G.
      3 May 2020 @ 15:03
      like clock work, Crispin's assertions/observations about bitcoin... This one I don't even understand, as we all know Raoul is uber bullish and has a 25% allocation to it... 25%! Are u kidding me?! I've learned a few things from Bitcoin believers in the comment sections on RV, and more from RV content. I've gotten nothing from your assertions yet. I don't mean to be rude, but honestly, I think your posts discourage open-minded consideration of bitcoin.
    • DR
      Derrick R.
      3 May 2020 @ 19:42
      Don't you BTC maxis have enough echo chambers? JFC. And I say this as a BTC holder!
  • IM
    Ilias M.
    3 May 2020 @ 19:22
    Interesting views, thx
  • MJ
    Marc J.
    3 May 2020 @ 16:21
    Most interesting interview I've seen yet :)
  • AC
    Andrew C.
    3 May 2020 @ 15:48
    I loved this... Best interview in a long time... Thank you both
  • ML
    Magnus L.
    3 May 2020 @ 15:34
    I believe the book that Hugh was referring to is 'Thinking in Bets'
  • IG
    Ivanaila G.
    1 May 2020 @ 10:21
    Two questions: 1) What do you mean when you talk about gold convexity? 2) TIPS and gold look highly correlated recently. If we have a strong deflationary environment, real rates will go higher, and TIPS will fall. Isn't it likely that gold will fall together with TIPS after it had a year or so of bull market? Thanks for the great interview!
    • js
      john s.
      1 May 2020 @ 14:42
      Gold doesn't pay a coupon like a bond - hense more convexity, like a zero coupon bond (EDV vs. TLT)
    • RG
      Roberto G.
      3 May 2020 @ 12:45
      I had exactly the same question: how can he expect real yields to go higher and be bullish gold at the same time? Doesn't make any sense to me, am I missing something?
    • WG
      Wade G.
      3 May 2020 @ 15:27
      Absolutely critical question and I hope Raoul will chime in himself. My take: I think Raoul said Fed "will absolutely shit themselves" when they see that unfolding, and so what's implied to me, is that Raoul believes the Fed's response (possibly fiscal as well) to that possibility will be supportive of gold. I'd like to start with a direct question to Raoul: do you project that kind of drop in inflation/increase in real rates, or simply state that that's what a stake without further crazy policy? Incidentally, I believe Lacy Hunt on Macrovoices this week projects inflation going to -2%. A lot to account for in your thinking, but not as extreme as what Raoul has suggested.
  • Rg
    Ruben g.
    1 May 2020 @ 21:33
    Roaul epic mate! please look into getting Peter Schiff on
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      2 May 2020 @ 01:11
      If you want to navigate what's coming, Peter Schiff is probably not the bloke to be listening to - even if he is eventually right (again, after a hiatus lasting a decade so far).
    • MK
      Michael K.
      2 May 2020 @ 03:12
      Peter schiff has lost the narrative trust and authority. I love bears, Austrians, libertarians, and hard money advocates, and he lost the story a long time ago.
    • GB
      Gold B.
      2 May 2020 @ 04:15
      Please DO NOT get Peter Schiff on. We're all bears and goldbugs here, but Schiff is not the man to represent that view best. Small beer. Don't do it RV.
    • CS
      Charles S.
      2 May 2020 @ 22:26
      Small beer, the Great Gold Bore
    • WG
      Wade G.
      3 May 2020 @ 15:09
      Schiff's single minded, persistently wrong view on the dollar, along with his self-serving, selective representation of his very mixed track record, renders him unqualified for RV. Some of his closely held beliefs are sophomoric. My opinion and advice: run from him.
  • RP
    Ryan P.
    3 May 2020 @ 14:07
    Crazy how shutting off the machines and noise and sitting in your own thoughts for a few years can bring immense clarity, peace, and confidence. We all watch with amazement how Hugh and RP digress...but the real takeaway from this is the delivery and clarity Hugh brings. Last time I saw him publicly speak he seemed to be defeated. Hugh thanks for putting yourself out there. Macro investing is an art and you are a fantastic artist.
  • AH
    Attila H.
    3 May 2020 @ 12:40
    This is a great piece, thanks RV! Would be also great to invite prof. Richard Werner for an interview in RV
  • DM
    Declan M.
    3 May 2020 @ 12:28
    Brilliant, loved the informal, unscripted chat bouncing ideas off each other.
  • NL
    Nicholas L.
    3 May 2020 @ 10:21
    Followed on Insta. Best Interview so far!
  • EC
    Edward C.
    3 May 2020 @ 08:13
    Honest conversation... glad to be a fly on the wall for this one.
  • MG
    Matthew G.
    3 May 2020 @ 02:45
    Princes of the yen is absolutely an incredible book (and YouTube video)
  • PB
    Paul B.
    3 May 2020 @ 01:56
    Debt to GDP is going to be well over 200% in the USA....No-one is looking at the GDP and how destructive that lack of Government Income jacks up the Debt/GDP % massively....How can you control the USD under this scenario. You can't. 120% today is not realistic....No Tax revenue!...its drops to dam near fucking Zero. This narrative around MMT assumes everyone and I mean everyone feels comfortable with Debt that will never get paid down....The Bankster's can do it but everyone else can't...PERSONAL DEBT is the Elephant in the room and it's not in the FED's Models....Given that 65% of the real GDP is from Consumers, the Bankster's are wrong! They ignore the role of personal credit and that right there is the BIGGEST problem, and the % ROC is also ignored, and to top it off the ROC of velocity of Money rolls back to no Government Income.
  • NJ
    Naveen J.
    2 May 2020 @ 22:48
    Fantastic video, really enjoyed it. Just watched Princes of the Yen...wow amazing stuff. Real Vision please interview Prof. Richard Werner, would love to see a discussion with him and Raoul. Tks.
    • TW
      Thomas W.
      2 May 2020 @ 23:41
      That would be excellent!
    • RD
      RP D.
      3 May 2020 @ 01:26
      Watching it now. Amazing. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5Ac7ap_MAY
  • RD
    RP D.
    2 May 2020 @ 23:37
    Ooof! This was outstanding. Thank you Hugh, thank you Raoul.
    • RD
      RP D.
      3 May 2020 @ 01:25
      The Princes of the Yen - This is a link to the Documtntary Hugh mentioned. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5Ac7ap_MAY
  • CB
    C B.
    2 May 2020 @ 10:54
    I can't make up my mind whether this short Euro long luxury Caribbean real estate trade pair is genius or folly.
    • SB
      Stephen B.
      3 May 2020 @ 00:57
      I lean towards it being brilliant.
  • TD
    Tim D.
    3 May 2020 @ 00:19
    Stuff like this always makes me wonder about the “quants”. Quants I guess are mostly either high frequency or month to month time horizon. These guys talk about 5 year time horizons so I guess it’s either that Macro is like that or those at the professional end, of still basically human traders, have found they need to be way out past where the machines are playing and out past where their brokers can be bothered hedging their positions. Make any sense?
  • rs
    ross s.
    2 May 2020 @ 23:47
    Can someone help me figure how to construct the Butterfly 5yr trade?
  • GO
    Gordon O.
    2 May 2020 @ 23:01
    Raoul, I am not knowledgable about much of anything, but I thought it was a very different Hugh at the end of the discussion than at the beginning. Wonderful job at bringing him out from his past introspections.
  • PJ
    Peter J.
    2 May 2020 @ 22:47
    loved it
  • mB
    marc B.
    2 May 2020 @ 22:31
    What a great conversation. Very different than what I’ve heard. More comparisons on Japan’s bubble is interesting to learn more about. Great entertaining character.
  • TS
    Thomas S.
    2 May 2020 @ 22:26
    This is golden. Very very valuble to watch pro's working through the macro puzzle for those just starting out. Thank you.
  • DK
    Daniel K.
    2 May 2020 @ 22:14
    The Princes of the Yen documentary can be viewed here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5Ac7ap_MAY&feature=youtu.be
  • KB
    Kevin B.
    2 May 2020 @ 22:08
    Fantastic discussion and exactly the sort of stimulating macro thought that I was seeking from RV.
  • JF
    John F.
    2 May 2020 @ 21:20
    The Mad Hatter of RealVision. Through the Watching Glass.
  • TW
    Thomas W.
    1 May 2020 @ 15:04
    Fantastic interview! I believe this is the Princes of the Yen video referred to: https://youtu.be/p5Ac7ap_MAY This document on 8 centuries of real interest rates is quite enlightening too: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2020/eight-centuries-of-global-real-interest-rates-r-g-and-the-suprasecular-decline-1311-2018.pdf?la=en&hash=5197703E8834998B56DD8121C0B64BFB09FF4881
    • lb
      l b.
      2 May 2020 @ 13:31
      Agree that the BOE paper on the secular decline of real rates is v interesting. So is the interview with the author: https://macromusings.libsyn.com/paul-schmelzing-on-the-suprasecular-decline-of-global-real-interest-rates
    • TW
      Thomas W.
      2 May 2020 @ 18:39
      Thanks I will listen to the podcast.
  • CC
    Crawley C.
    1 May 2020 @ 09:15
    he left the industry because it was a joyless activity... didn't he leave because his clients pulled their money?
    • JM
      Jim M.
      2 May 2020 @ 01:24
      Don't hate on Crawley because he tells the truth. We can like and admire Hugh and still acknowledge it didn't work out for him.
    • FG
      Flavio G.
      2 May 2020 @ 17:56
      He has been honest about it, in writing, a few times. Does he need to repeat it? Could it be that both apply? Clients pulling $ AND joyless? His honesty contrasts the character of many muppets in the industry. Guys losing client's money without a glimpse of remorse, public, or in pectoris.
  • BM
    Beth M.
    2 May 2020 @ 17:50
    IMO...this is the best exchange I've heard in the few years I've been an RV subscriber. Encouraging investors to push the boundaries of their thought process, projections and financial acumen is the best favor an experienced macro investor can provide another investor. This conversation was gritty and real. It took me to a better place...and a primary example was the gold trade..."hey, this has a 70% chance of going to X marks the spot, but it has a 30% of imploding!" That's brilliant...with macro we can get too focused on the long term outcome without actively reassessing along the way. And I'm still long gold in this ongoing currency regime change! Great job boys...AND keep Hugh coming back to add more!
  • ZH
    Zack H.
    2 May 2020 @ 17:32
    Loved this discussion, thanks 😊
  • RM
    Ryan M.
    2 May 2020 @ 16:46
    Ok shit! This was actually A LOT better than I expected! The good stuff really comes in from about 35-40min left in the interview. When Raoul & Hugh start going back and forth and start fleshing out a trade construct in real time. Amazing! I love Hugh but sometimes he tends to babble off script. If you find that off-putting just try to soldier through the earlier bits. It's bloody worth it!
  • AG
    Anthony G.
    2 May 2020 @ 16:17
    T try r TG re t TG r TG try Iiuiiuuuuiii ciu
  • CP
    Curt P.
    2 May 2020 @ 15:45
    If you read or watch The Princes of the Yen, you will learn far more about macro than listening to Hendry in this RV interview. Ironic that Hendry is such a fan of it, wish he would talk through the ideas more rather than 'GOLD!'. Richard Werner (author of PotY) makes it very clear that the way forward is: CB's take bad assets from banks, then banks are restricted to loans for productive purposes, and consumption/speculative lending done only from the non-bank sector. He calls this Credit Guidance, which was/is the system used by Germany, Japan, RoK, China which created their incredible growth. Essentially the CB/MoF determine which productive sectors will get credit and banks act as the loan officers for those sectors. Credit Guidance is non-inflationary, however it will be asset price deflationary from the current Anglo-American system. Finance folks who are not deeply schooled in geopolitics fail to understand that the Anglo-American system is only possible b/c it sits at the pinnacle of an Empire. That Empire is being unraveled, and so the system it maintains is unsustainable. TLDR: there is no place to hide asset-wise. GOLD will not save you. All that will happen is a mad scramble of bubbles in different 'assets' as speculators jump from one failing asset to another. The first in will win, everyone else will lose. The only winners will be the productive assets - the technical ability in your head/hands to produce something of use to others. Look around, how many productive assets does your country have which can head to head compete with Japan, Germany, China, RoK?
  • PT
    Peter T.
    2 May 2020 @ 15:42
    Everyone is on the same side with gold consensus up for everyone . is there a gut check or are you saying there is no more downside liquidity risk or gut check with gold ?
  • tv
    tomaz v.
    2 May 2020 @ 15:40
    Enjoyed every minute of conversation. Fantastic!
  • MP
    Mark P.
    2 May 2020 @ 15:10
    Fantastic interview. I am having trouble wrapping my head around gold being a short vol trade, though. While gold’s inverse correlation with equity markets is spotty at best, I would have associated it with long vol as it typically does well in turbulent times ( understanding it’s tightest correlation is movement of real interest rates). Can anyone help me see what I am missing? Thanks in advance.
  • EK
    Edward K.
    2 May 2020 @ 15:09
    No wonder Hugh has been off the grid. Pretty genius to get funding at these low rates to build a getaway for the rich on an island and carve out a piece for yourself. Such low visibility cocoons may be highly prized in this "gilded depression".
  • gc
    guillaume c.
    2 May 2020 @ 15:04
    You are both going to be right. There is going to be a deflationary crash (stocks down with GDP), then even more desperate measures taken by the fed who is going to generate the inflation hoped for 20 years. But the inflation is imo even less controllable than growth. So there is going to be a lot of inflation who is going to profit from stocks. Like always, the timing is uncertain, depending on political development, covid development and the rate of panic of the fed.
  • RE
    Renato E.
    2 May 2020 @ 08:11
    If we get deflation first, does that mean the markets will correct another 20-30% or even more? If that is the assumption, everything will be sold - including gold, silver and the miners. Some say Gold will hit 800-900 Dollars. I don't care about that, I still own physical Gold and I'm not selling even at that price. With the miners, however, isn't it to early to jump into it? Any thoughts?
    • DB
      David B.
      2 May 2020 @ 14:26
      You mean Henrik Zeberg for gold 800-900? A bunch of people, including Raoul, asked him on Twitter for his rationale. He ignores the question every time. Don't know much about him but I think it's just Elliott Wave, which is always blind to the unique reality of the times.
    • RE
      Renato E.
      2 May 2020 @ 14:55
      Yes, he is one of them. I'm not worried about the EW theories or what their price target they have for Gold itself (some EW evangelists see a bullish pattern. Maybe it is like astrology, be as vague a possible and if you are wrong, just begin a new count of the ABC waves or whatever). I'm more worried about a possible sell off in the market that hits the miners hard as well. Therefore I'm reluctant to buy right now.
  • BS
    Bill S.
    2 May 2020 @ 14:51
    Great interview back and forth - would love to see more exchanges like this. Well done.
  • ME
    Michael E.
    2 May 2020 @ 14:47
    This gentleman has no respect to Raul, real vision viewers. Take shower & straighten up for an interview. He is looking for $50M to do Real estate business in Cayman. If he was so smart, why don’t he do it??????
  • VL
    Vid L.
    1 May 2020 @ 19:33
    "Princes of the Yen: Japan''s Central Bankers and the Transformation of the Economy" is a book by Richard Werner. There is also a 2014 documentary titled "Princes of the Yen: Central Bank Truth Documentary", which you can find freely available on Youtube.
    • CP
      Curt P.
      2 May 2020 @ 13:35
      The book in english is out of print. You an order digital version from publisher though. https://quantumpublishers.com/quantum_publishers_book_shop.html
  • GG
    Guillermo G.
    1 May 2020 @ 20:12
    Raoul, it would be interesting to see you run your thesis with Lacy Hunt. See what are the matches and discrepancies, if any. Cheers!
    • PD
      Paul D.
      2 May 2020 @ 02:56
      That would be fantastic. Lacy is one of the most talented minds I have read, blessed with the superpower of explaining complex issues in a clear and concise manner — that mere mortals such as myself understand.
    • MK
      Michael K.
      2 May 2020 @ 03:13
      I think Hugh discussed the decreasing productivity of additional debt (including in his tweet storm tonight)
    • SJ
      Simon J.
      2 May 2020 @ 11:48
      He is very good! Guessing you just listened to MacroVoices
  • GP
    Geoff P.
    2 May 2020 @ 11:48
    Love these trade construction conversations between pros.
  • JD
    John D.
    2 May 2020 @ 11:19
    Thoroughly enjoyable !!! Thanks Guys...
  • TB
    Thibault B.
    2 May 2020 @ 11:09
    Fantastic insight into portfolio construction... one of the best pieces for this.
  • CM
    C M.
    2 May 2020 @ 05:06
    Interesting chap and his appearance on Newsnight with Jeffrey Sachs is perhaps one of my all-time favorite skewering of a pompous ding-dong from the Ivory Tower, but, with respect, and if I may say this gently, his returns aside from 2003 and 2008 were decidedly mediocre. Don't get me wrong, I like his spirit and life story, but the returns simply are not there. Not going to invest 78 minutes on this one.
    • JO
      Johnny O.
      2 May 2020 @ 11:05
      1.5x
  • JE
    Jon E.
    2 May 2020 @ 11:04
    Loved it, thank you guys
  • MS
    Matthew S.
    2 May 2020 @ 06:26
    With gold as the base of the macro bet, isn’t an easy option just playing the gold miners (eg GDX / GDXJ with currency spread in the bet) for the big run potential (ie open ended call option on the price of gold going up). Love the macro chat, gets the brain wizzing. Keep it up RV.
    • MC
      Melvin C.
      2 May 2020 @ 08:58
      Gold is the "safest" asset. Gold miners face other risks.. e.g. look up Marin Katusa's suggestion that non-swap line nations could be getting their own back by increasing taxation/ higher royalties / nationalising foreign-held gold mines. @RV it would be interesting to have an expert discuss this and suggest trade ideas?
  • SZ
    SALEH Z.
    2 May 2020 @ 08:38
    Not Hughs best. Couldn’t understand much of what he was trying to say.
  • EV
    Erik V.
    2 May 2020 @ 06:25
    Incoherent mumbling, can’t complete a coherent thought
  • JC
    James C.
    1 May 2020 @ 20:04
    Just fucking brilliant! Except trying to get the thought of Hugh in a bikini out of my mind.
    • PW
      Phil W.
      1 May 2020 @ 21:30
      Second that! Just Fucking Brilliant!!!!!!!!
    • AK
      Andreas K.
      2 May 2020 @ 06:02
      He said mankini in the end...
  • AP
    Adam P.
    2 May 2020 @ 05:49
    Amazing discussion. Wow.
  • JM
    Jim M.
    2 May 2020 @ 01:21
    I love Hugh but don't you need to reign him in? Keep him on point?
    • JS
      John S.
      2 May 2020 @ 05:42
      The whole point of listening to Hugh is that he can't be reigned in. Allow his genius to wander near and far and we learn
  • GB
    Gold B.
    2 May 2020 @ 05:31
    wonderful interview, TV. Thank you.
    • GB
      Gold B.
      2 May 2020 @ 05:31
      RV*
  • DC
    David C.
    2 May 2020 @ 05:25
    I've thoroughly enjoyed this conversation. Great vibes.
  • SS
    Steven S.
    2 May 2020 @ 04:54
    I never knew Mark Lanegan had so much insight into finance. Kidding aside, this is great and extraordinarily helpful. I have considerable respect for the views of both Hugh and Raoul.
  • AB
    Andrew B.
    2 May 2020 @ 03:58
    Awesome. Taking us through the rough sketch of the next big trade.
  • JT
    Jay T.
    2 May 2020 @ 03:23
    Apparently Hugh and I have the same barber during the media-induced panic.
  • TS
    Thomas S.
    2 May 2020 @ 03:22
    Instant classic!
  • CT
    Chris T.
    1 May 2020 @ 15:25
    Great piece, thank you RV. Love Hugh and how his mind works. I'll happily swap some insight on FinTech/Crypto (non-BTC) in exchange for some carry trade advice ;)
    • MK
      Michael K.
      2 May 2020 @ 03:17
      The best insight on non bitcoin “crypto” is don’t bother and just buy bitcoin?
  • BK
    Bruce K.
    1 May 2020 @ 22:36
    Charter subscriber: I've watched countless awesome interviews. THIS one makes the Top Three of all time. Insanely informative and entertaining as hell. BRAVO!
    • JM
      Jacob M.
      2 May 2020 @ 03:15
      If I may, what others are your favorites? Recommendations always appreciated!
  • SZ
    Sarjan Z.
    2 May 2020 @ 03:07
    This is my first comment on RV. Rapidly, the video was great to watch because this is the first time that I’ve heard an opposing view on the market in one of your videos. I follow the “unfolding” hypothesis but it is great to hear an opposite perspective. It would be great if you had additional interviews with others who disagree with your hypothesis. Hope you can make it happen. Again great video due to the diversity of the macro view.
  • AE
    Andy E.
    2 May 2020 @ 02:40
    Great conversation- one of the best videos you’ve had in a long time - love the back and forth and also the gold discussion!
  • AP
    ANTHONY P.
    2 May 2020 @ 02:30