Comments
Transcript
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SMAwesome interview - absolutely loved it. In case any one's interested, here's the link to the "Boundaries of Technical Analysis" paper that Milton referred to - https://www.academia.edu/18668085/Boundaries_of_Technical_Analysis
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JPDid anyone realize that he said the yearly gain for his buy signal in 2019 was 35.42%?
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DHProbably the best interview I’ve seen. Maybe I’m quirky, because I totally relate to Milton Berg’s way of thinking. I wish I had the skill set as well. Maybe it’s because I’m a psychologist and love observing, and attempting to understand, human behaviour. We are all so interesting.
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mwvery insightful interview. One thing he mentions is 5 day volume. Milton, are you standardizing volume data to take into account volume spikes around options expiry etc? If not, hard to get the 5 day volume at the highest level in 250 days as suggested in his paper.
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JTFantastic interview. I hope no one believes it though :-)
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VHLearnt a new word -- Quintilian. Thank you!
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PTThis is by far one of the best interviews I have ever come across from an expert. I have been trying to come up with a model that can predict market turns; I can clearly see what path Milton B has taken to get there.
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CMWow, that was great! Maybe the best! Thank you RV and Milton!
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LVThanks for sharing Milton! When talking about modeling all 7%+ moves, what's the maximum timeframe for these moves?
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CBOne of the greatest interviews I've seen. Up there with Kiril Sokoloff. Main point is that there are many other factors outside of technicals.
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JCThe Winston Wolf of Real Vision...
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CGWhat’s the inflation adjusted value of 118 year old Dollar? I’d say if you invested $1 in 1900 the rate of inflation would have killed all your 648% gain.
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FCSuper awesome! However, is he short the stocks since July 2? All his data he presented made me think he is long but then he said he is short. Can someone please clarify? Thanks
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JVThis guy called the bottom Nov 26, 2018 as well. Broken clock will be right twice per day.
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YBFascinating! Would love to hear how your Talmudic background helps you analyze the market, if at all.
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mwGreat interview. Milton, what is your typical time frame for calling tops and bottoms? The process seem very nimble switching from long to short etc. Also it would have been helpful in the interview to understand more what he had learned from the greats of Soros and Druckenmiller cheers
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JGAll the respect to Milton and his process but you are all too gullable , no one can do it always. For example: Next Move in Stocks Will Be Considerably Higher, Milton Berg Says Bloomberg Markets: The Close November 26th, 2018, 8:43 PM GMT+0100 Milton Berg, chief executive officer of Milton Berg Advisors, discusses his bullish call on U.S. equities with Bloomberg's Scarlet Fu and Caroline Hyde on "Bloomberg Markets: The Close." (Source: Bloomberg) Market went down one more month...
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MBDumb money index screams "sell now!" https://www.ccn.com/news/stock-market-dumb-money-index-screams-sell-now/2019/07/19/?amp
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SSSelling dreams always will work.
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BDSuper interview, a great perspective on markets and how to trade.
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VSMilton I’ve made a living for over 50 years doing exactly what your doing.... i also worked for Soros successfully. The one factor I would add to your list is the “integration” of fundamentals to the technicals as an another indicator. One of the best interviews from Real Vision in terms of making money. 5*’s thank you.
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RYBrilliant interview.
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ERI had the privilege of working as an analyst for Milton for four years. I can attest that his process is disciplined and data driven, and that his insights are sought after by some of the top names on the street. His proclivity for out-of-the-box thinking distinguishes the research, in my opinion.
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GOFascinating. He is absolutely correct about a good number of successful investors have a different perspective, because they think differently, because they are different. I have seen it first hand. Well done Real Vision. Glenn
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RWI'm glad I'm not the only one using 30,000 indicators.
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JAwhoever knew Grant was a closet Technician!
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RMI want to say something to those rookies that want to learn, and to those mockers who think this guy doesn’t know what he is talking about. I’m not famous; I work alone; and I don’t have the computer power he’s got. But I do sort of basically what he does with off the shelf common indicators. I’m sure he does it better than I do. My point is it can be done. I was in cash before the late last year sell off and went 50% long a day early - the day before christmas eve, and the rest long on christmas eve, to the exact day. How did I do it? I will tell you how. I sell the right top by selling 12 of the right 2 tops a year. And I keep my losses small. That’s it. That’s all there is. When you are in cash with the market down big in unusual volume like around christmas, you can have the balls to step in even if you end up being a week early. That’s it. I watch regular big name stocks and have experience with seeing something unfamiliar with what I watch regularly. I’m just using regular hard price short term momentum indicators like stochastic, and macd histogram, watching the short term momentum and watching for unusual volume and change of cadence in rsi. I make my money at turns. I under perform in the stretch. If you think this guy has nothing to teach, he is pearls before swine. Just saying open your mind to start watching what turns look like. Getting some of it right some of the time can pay if you don’t over stretch. And over time, if you don’t bust, you learn to do it better. But if you don’t try, you can’t learn this, and you are wasting time.
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THIt clears the mind to realize once again that those of us who trade our own accounts are competing with folks like Milton Berg. I so admire his humility in the face of his many achievements.
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PAVERY powerful approach! The fundamental fact mentioned as the tripwire that could snap up and make a mess out of the long side? Debt. That stated the weight of this factor and all other factors he observes as impacting the market direction is where I would think Mr. Berg's system likely shines. His work in available to institutional clientele - Has he ever thought about establishing a retail offering? Perhaps a closed-end fund?
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KDThank you Milton & Grant. Got heaps out of this!
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THMainstream: "Market timing can't be done" Milton: "Hold my beer!" Brilliant!
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SPWe feel lighter and happier on full moon days or days the moons closest to earth. Gravity literally pulls or pushes water. Water is two sets of very light atoms - hydrogen is lighter than helium and oxygen is heavier than both.
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SPStudy the macd , rsi , standard deviation , bollinger uppers , money flow and study those down to the average weighting methods - even deeper , candle patterns approaching the middle bollonger. It is possible you can call swings very early. Earned very good returns in terms of % , working on turning these dollars but it doesn’t take time . It’s possible , and can be machine learned .
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JEThis is legend! Another homerun for Grant and Realvision.
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EFI thought there would be a little more skepticism here. There were certainly some interesting insights but I do think the initial example of a dollar invested across every boom / bust being worth trillions is just ridiculous, and somewhat undermines the argument for. I also thought Milton hedged his bets by making the case for both an upturn or downturn from here. Only a sideways market leaves him wrong. I’m not won over and am highly sceptical. You could lose the shirt off your back attempting this and I’m a little disappointed Grant didn’t push back a little more. I only listened to the audio but do not feel this is something he buys into personally.
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JHSorry but couldn’t get into this one at all. Grant is fantastic as usual, but steamrolled a bit by this guy who doesn’t stop talking and frankly sounds a bit like a broken record. I’m afraid I couldn’t last more than about 1/2 way through the interview. Disappointing. Well done Grant and RV. Not all interviews can be excellent and up to your v. high standard. Cheers.
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PPThank you Milton Berg for sharing your wisdom & Grant/RV for the interview. One of the best hours of the past year on RV. Loved Mr. Berg’s passion after so many years, and that he remains always on edge/vigilant. 175% long or 175% short will focus the mind.
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RMCan't tell if cuckoo or brilliant
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MChttps://www.morningstar.com/news/market-watch/TDJNMW_20190713198/update-investor-who-nailed-the-1987-crash-ditches-stocks-and-bonds-and-heres-why.html
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vmThis interview was mind blowing!!!! Thank you realvision!!!
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PBIs there perhaps a retail investor version of Milton’s research?;)
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DSWhat a humble man and a great process. One of the finest interviews yet Grant.
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PKExcellent interview and insights. The explanation of data driven representation of psychology by Mr. Berg was superb.
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GRQuite an intriguing interview providing a glimpse into the mind of a very talented individual with some unique insights! Also....Milton and Robert De Niro could be doppelgangers for one another! I know when they make a movie of Milton's role in finance...De Niro will be the guy...
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MBThis interview from legendary analyst Milton Berg is the best I’ve ever seen in all my years of market research. Milton is definitely the one to follow. Those with him are the ones making the real money today.
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CZHands down top 5 RV interviews of all time. Does anyone know what his track record is?
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pwMany many thanks, epitomizing why I pay for this. Gutsy and good!!
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AVa great interview and appreciate the data driven nature of the analysis. Interestingly, even when his computer model generates a buy signal based in rare signals, he still makes a human based decision to act on the signal, so he is technically following a discretionary model.
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RZMilton is one of the brightest investors I have ever seen. Clearly the best of the best. Hope to see him on Real Vision all the time.
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SWOne of the best interviews on Real Vision! Thank you!!!
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RMGod I love these old school dudes!!
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SBI've done some analysis on lunar effects and surprisingly there is a weak relationship. I expect it is less about gravity on our body but instead how well we sleep (or not) with full moons. Greatest impact seems to be on volatility markets. May also be some cause from Asian calendars. Great interview.
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HvWOW! Just loved this interview! Milton is fascinating and delivers a lot of meat. And as always Grant’s easy fluid style just draws out the best content. Grant is the BEST listener; he coaxes, milks, draws & elicits technicolor 3-dimensional nuggets from his guests. A suggestion and a question... SUGGESTION: if the guest has taken over 60 orbits around the sun, can the set-staff please provide COMFORTABLE CHAIRS for those guests? Like a lazy-boy armchair? Milton starts squirming 5 minutes in. I work in cancer care and can spot physical discomfort by the amount a person shifts their weight. He keeps on shifting throughout the interview. Pain reduces mental acuity and focus, and is exhausting. If guests aren’t tired out, they’ll have a better chance of returning as they’ll subconsciously remember their interview as being enjoyably pain-free. And how about a side-table behind the chairs for their materials? Turn off the sound and the fellow looked like a newbie on a job interview at times. He looked uncomfortable. Maybe this is why some of the greats put off attending; they don’t want to sit for an hour.. because it just plain hurts. QUESTIONS: Milton says “short bonds”. Raoul says “buy bonds”. What am I missing? Are they both coming at the same problem from different angles respective to their positions? Or do they mean different bond instruments? Is it normal to have two top leaders in the industry quanting polar opinions? Anyone? Thanks! Hannah
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DSAgreed. Great insights. Since market purchases are about 60% ETFs and 20% algos, there is a lot less purchasing on price discovery. Instead it is on the psychology behind money flows. As baby boomers are trying to top off their retirement accounts and corporations are buying back their stock, markets are climbing despite corporate profit warnings. As discussed in many RVTV interviews, this will reverse someday. When that happens, I will bet Mr. Berg will be in cash and ready to buy low. I hope we can join him as cash will not have the problem of counterparty risk. DLS
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ADYou only need to broadcast a few interviews like this one a year to justify your full annual fee! Data driven decisions guided by the insight/intuition of broad experience... how else could one go short on July 2nd. I'll never say never.. but it will be a long time coming for the algo's to program a black box to do what he does. Thank you RV.
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APMilton, is your research available/affordable for retail investors? Anyone has any idea of how much the services costs?
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AOOne of, if not the best interview I have seen on here! So many nuggets to go and backtest. Superb work!!
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TRGood guest but the interviewing was not rigorous enough, Someone like Mike Green would have extracted a lot more from Milton about the methodology.
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PBTruly extraordinary! I loved it!
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KGBrilliant interview and framework. Try get Chris Carolan in to run through moon cycles....
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YUThis is why I pay for Real Vision.
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BAGotta love a person who asks 'why not?'; and then gives the near impossible a red-hot go.
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MKBest interview yet on RV!
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DHI will watch this again and again
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JWAh major turns. Google Trends/The Economist Cover, Weekly MACD, Buying/Selling Climaxes (Spreads and volume), pin bars, good reward risk, and casuals messaging you to chase the trend. One time i even caught myself asserting -- in casual conversation - that a trend was for sure going to continue. That literally pinned the top to within two days! Try looking up Oil Plunge, Bear Market, and Euro Parity on Google Trends (increase sample size to 2004-Present). There are your major turns :)
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AJI love love love that we got straight into it. Wonderful as ever, Grant.
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MIDoes Milton have a Twitter feed?
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JF"The speculator’s primary interest lies in anticipating and profiting from market fluctuations. The investor’s primary interest lies in acquiring and holding suitable securities at suitable prices." Ben Graham, The Intelligent Investor
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JMWhat a fantastic interview, thank you. As someone who is a tiny retail investor also trying to educate himself on the markets, it was fascinating to hear Milton talk. I’m sure that replicating Milton’s strategy in a personal (and very small) account is a challenge, but I feel a responsibility to try. Time to lock myself away in a room to figure some things out! Thanks again, informative, enlightening and above all very enjoyable to watch.
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BFTotally fascinating. I will show my age by saying he reminded me of Georgie Jessel with his speaking.
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CMNice interview. Really gets going at the 12 minute remaining mark. If you are short on time, at least watch the last 12 minutes for Milton's insights on today's market.
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PMMilton is really Robert De Niro! I would have like to hear Milton's thoughts on Elliot Wave.
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dwThis interview was amazing!
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ABEclipses?!
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NRFantastic. Put a camera crew together and have them live stream Milton through the day. Bringing him back for another interview is not enough.
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DRIn general, it seems that the technicians and quant masters are increasingly outperforming the fundies guys. Though it's good to have the complete package.
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JKI mean this as a complete complement (not a political or personal character association), but I could not help but thinking that I was the recipient of Robert De Niro providing me personal investment advice during the interview. The voice, look, and mannerism alignment between Mr. Berg and De Niro is uncanny, but in a good way. Leave it to Grant, Raoul, and Team to figure out how to take financial education to a whole new entertain/engagement level! :-) Keep up the good work, and please have Mr. Berg back, Grant. Thank you.
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SSGreat to have Grant back on RV! This is the kind of mind blowing discussion, that changes the false perceptions drilled into my brain over the last 30 years, regarding supposed market facts. I'm only halfway through this presentation and its put a huge smile on my face! Brilliant honest analysis the confirms our instincts and psychology are critical to success. Having the courage to sell when the market is rising and buy when fallen. Smart Trading does matter. What does it take to get subscription to Mr. Berg's work??? Is there a blog, newsletter, or the like available? Top Notch!
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MRWow...5 stars for Milton Berg. I hate to say this but he stole about half of what I was going to say in my next RV interview on the market in a couple of weeks. RTM Capital is happy to sponsor him to come back as I've never heard of him but can say that is one of the best videos I've seen on market timing EVER!! The confluence of evidence is to stay long for now. well said Mark Ritchie II
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OTCan you post the documents he is holding in his hand :) maybe add a sample to think tank?
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HHIs there a place we can find his research?
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MAAmazing discussion. Building the discipline to actually act on these signals only at the turning points and not over trading is very difficult and I think most people end up losing by going for the false positives at the turning points.
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fcOk, Im sold, how can I invest with him?
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KLGreat interview! Thank you for highlighting how Graham's approach to investing changed at the end of his career and how pyschology affects the markets. Think this is the best interview so far showing how psychology can affect markets.
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CBMovement creates profits and losses. Supply & Demand create movement. Interpreting supply and demand properly is the key to the kingdom. Bravo Milton! and thank you Grant for a wonderful interview!!
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JSGreat interview. Really appreciate the Mr. Berg's work and willingness to share his process. Great stuff. Wondering what determines a "top" for getting stopped out on the July 2 short. It appears we are already at new highs. Does that mean he has been stopped out?
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AHI always like listening to Milton. Love the shorter term focus, and appears a good way to trade the current environment so that you do not need to try to rationalize the current monetary madness.
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OCReal Vision's interviews are awesome and this one in particular, in my opinion, is one of the best because it actually gives specific tools and strategy that we can apply. Keep up the great work!!!
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MIThis is a great interview. Please bring him often.
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JGI am so glad Milton is on RV............I came across him in 2014 and was blown away since by his high quality yet simple analysis which has helped me in my career when I started back in 2014......I check all the time for him on Bloomberg..........He's an excellent trader and good at calling turning points..............Thank you Milton for sharing your knowledge over the years!!!...........The crazy part about it is that he has maybe roughly an hour or so footage between bloomberg and a recent CNBC appearance & from all of them put together I've learnt more that reading many other sources..........this guy is the real deal
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smIMO this interview absolutely sucked and I want my time back. If you haven't watched I wouldn't. He might kill it but it is hard to extract anything when you are polishing a turd. ~!22:45 to go] "We spent 30 years creating this model" [look out for the body language Grant] "we have a yuuuuugge computer database and our computer combines the model. We combine it based on rarity." He goes on to say if 6 rare things happen they check if those 6 rare things have happend and affect the market ... Ok... I was sick in my mouth at this point and turned off RV to watch Gold Hunters on Pay TV.
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PVGrant. This was an excellent interview. The context of what Milton is putting out there is so important and very timely. I'll need to listen to this again (and perhaps again) over the next week. Thanks, Paul
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SGwhat a DUDE!! I hope he comes back once per week!
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GWOutstanding interview.
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DWGreat interview!
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MCMore please!
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DLAdmittedly some of it sounds a little weird, but if the track record and the data support the actions it would seem prudent to take the ideas seriously. Fascinating interview, thanks.
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MSBrilliant interview!
MILTON BERG: On a daily basis and a weekly basis, the movements of the market are random. However, there are particular times when the market movement is very far from random. When the market generates data that tells you the market's close to a top or has topped, or the market is close to a bottom and has bottomed.
In their mind, this is a cuckoo. This is nuts. This is impossible. We were taught this can't be done. So you need to have a discipline, you need to have a view, and you need to rely on your data. If you don't rely on your data, you're just lost.
GRANT WILLIAMS: I'm about to sit down for a conversation with a man who is a very quiet Wall Street legend. He's worked for some of the titans of the industry. He's worked for Michael Steinhardt. He's worked with Stan Druckenmiller, with George Soros.
And the work he does is absolutely fascinating. This is going to captivate and entertain a lot of people. There's going to be some questions afterwards. So join me now. We're going to sit down and talk with Milton Berg.
Well, Milton, welcome. Thank you so much for doing this. I have been looking forward to it for a very, very long time.
MILTON BERG: Well, thanks for inviting me. And I'm going to learn more about Real Vision. I skimmed some of the videos this morning, and I feel bad I wasn't on earlier.
GRANT WILLIAMS: Well, I'm glad you finally got this to happen. So just before we get into what you do, which is so fascinating, I just want to give people a quick sense of your background. Because you've been in the markets a long, long time. So if you can just give us a quick potted history, that'd be fantastic.
MILTON BERG: OK. Well, my background was never in finance. I got degrees in Talmudic law in the 1970s. But I didn't feel I'd make a living out of that, make a profession out of it. So I started studying markets on my own. I was exposed to markets as a child. My uncles used to trade in the '60s and somewhat in the '70s.
And then I decided to study the markets. I received a CFA, one of the earliest ones, number 6881. Now there are hundreds and hundreds of thousands, so one of the earliest CFAs. So I studied pure Graham and Dodd fundamental analysis. I thought that's what you have to know to do well in the business. I studied accounting and financial statement analysis, and Graham and Dodd.
But as soon as I got my first job, I realized two things. First I realized that I'm competing with all these other fundamentalists. I have no edge. There are thousands of analysts who follow Graham and Dodd. So that's one thing I realized. Secondly I realized that, on average, the typical analyst just has average performance. And a lot of the analysis doesn't really contribute to their earning money in the market.
So I was exposed initially to Ned Davis. Was then working at JC Bradford, so first technical analyst I was actually exposed to. And I was fascinated because I saw there was more to the market than what I perceived Graham and Dodd was teaching me. And from then on, what I did was really is I spent more than 30 years analyzing markets, until I learned to focus on market tops and market bottoms.
So my background was I started at Talmudic law. I started as an analyst for low grade credits for a mutual fund organization. Then I started managing money for a mutual funds organization. I worked at Oppenheimer Money Management, managing three mutual funds in the 1980s. Actually in '87, I managed the three top funds in the country. At that time already, I already had the discipline of trying to call tops and bottoms. We got to 80% cash before the crash in October, raised the cash in September.
Then I worked as a partner at Steinhardt. I took off for a few years, moved to Israel with my family. I then went to work for George Soros with Stanley Druckenmiller. I worked with Stanley at Duquesne, always did research. In the last six years, I've been doing the same research I've done all the years for other firms, doing it for myself and marketing new research, selling the research to clients.
So currently, my clients really are the titans of the hedge fund industry. The type of work I do is very atypical. People look at it, and they don't understand it. They don't necessarily accept it. But the clients who've been-- people dealing with it for years understand that it's much value added.
GRANT WILLIAMS: Well, let's get into that because it is different. It is something that people won't be familiar with. So just talk about how you built this framework and how you began to kind of assemble the pieces of the jigsaw.
MILTON BERG: OK. Well, one thing I realized in studying Graham and Dodd-- Benjamin Graham was actually a technical analyst.
GRANT WILLIAMS: Right. See, already people are going to be going--
MILTON BERG: Well, people who know Graham know the end of his-- yeah, he said we give up all research. And the rest can look at the numbers. People who know Graham and Warren Buffett will tell you, in the last five years of Benjamin Graham's career, he would no longer do rigorous analysis of balance sheets. He'd just look at numbers, P/E ratios, price to book value, what the price of the stock is relative to its last five-year high, which is really technical analysis.