The Ultimate Macro Phase Change

Published on
May 29th, 2020
74 minutes

DoubleLine’s Global Bond Strategy: A Global Rates and FX Masterclass

The Ultimate Macro Phase Change

The Interview ·
Featuring Russell Clark

Published on: May 29th, 2020 • Duration: 74 minutes

Russell Clark, CIO of Horseman Capital Management, sits down with Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, to discuss the new risk-reward paradigm he sees on the horizon. Clark explains why he believes that the past decade – characterized by low growth, falling commodity prices, and a strong dollar – is coming to an end. Clark and Pal look at ratios such as gold/oil and growth/value to interest rates, and Clark suggests that a prolonged wave of commodity price appreciation could become the new normal once aggregate demand returns to pre-crisis levels. Clark also discusses China and its Belt and Road Initiative in great detail. Clark and Pal consider the potential returns of assets within emerging markets, as well as commodities such as gold and oil. Filmed on May 26, 2020.



  • MC
    Mark C.
    29 July 2020 @ 23:03
    Realvision giving us more than the echo chamber. Thanks. Great interview.
  • MM
    Mark M.
    1 June 2020 @ 00:45
    This is a really first class discussion. Thank you. I would love to hear more about Chinese expansion into Asia, maybe from Taiwanese, Japanese and Singaporean economists/academics (ie people who understand it, but see both the positives and negatives for regional geopolitics). Thanks again
    • CW
      CC W.
      1 June 2020 @ 05:59
      I second this. We need more economists/managers who lives in those areas and provide on the ground info. I hate to say this but Clark was wrong for many years.
    • AC
      Andrew C.
      12 July 2020 @ 08:45
      Thailand wasn’t mentioned, but it appears the Chinese are gaining huge influence here, tying up many industries, in particular logistics (big items [manufacturing] as well as online shopping)
  • IZ
    Ignacio Z.
    7 July 2020 @ 19:32
    Long #China Short #CCP
  • DM
    David M.
    9 June 2020 @ 14:32
    Y'all gotta leave your political biases behind when you're commenting here. Russell sees opportunities in the Asian countries and China and sees EM doing well, and people get in an uproar bc they are "America first." He's not supporting socialism or communism.
    • JG
      John G.
      10 June 2020 @ 22:16
      Bias, he is a pro-china Australian... not to mention he has been hosed by the run in the US per Bloomberg - "Clark’s bold, contrarian move, which has made him one of the most watched hedge fund managers in the world, backfired as the S&P 500 index surged 31.5% last year."
    • WB
      William B.
      1 July 2020 @ 15:21
      I agree all the hate is political bias.
  • IF
    Ian F.
    29 June 2020 @ 19:47
    The CCP would call this guy a "running dog".
  • TG
    Terry G.
    17 June 2020 @ 12:42
    Why is a drunkard on RV? He looks like he's high
    • MS
      Michael S.
      19 June 2020 @ 22:32
      What's your point?
    • SW
      Sze W.
      29 June 2020 @ 03:35
      my point is it's all about trashing trump and praising China... a view that's shared among many business people to squeeze every last dime than concerning about national security
  • RC
    Radigan C.
    28 June 2020 @ 19:48
    I really got a lot out of this interview, the point of more trade growth being possible in countries being connected under the One Belt, One Road than in trade with US is plausible to me having seen some of the infrastructure first hand as far away as Africa and how hard people are working to improve their lives. Also recommend the book they mention, The Silk Roads: A New History of the World by Peter Frankopan. I'm a few hours into the audiobook, narrator is excellent, and finding it very fascinating if you like history. For instance, Rome had such a trade imbalance with China in the first century AD nearly half the coins minted were flowing outside the Empire along the silk roads to China. I didn't know trade imbalances with China went back that far. Lol
  • SB
    Sean B.
    25 June 2020 @ 01:01
    Really great interview.
  • SW
    Sze W.
    24 June 2020 @ 11:32
    Such a terrible view, he completely let’s his liberal view clouded his investment mind. Or whatever he was taking before that interview.
  • SS
    Stephen S.
    17 June 2020 @ 00:19
    Perhaps I’m weird but this is my favorite interview of the last couple months. I’m basically just doing what this guy talked about from here going forward. Perhaps it’s early.
    • ar
      andrew r.
      19 June 2020 @ 19:32
      I know. Well thought out, but so different! Really challenges my thinking.
  • RH
    Rizwan H.
    2 June 2020 @ 09:29
    A couple of comments here: 1) Look at what China is doing on the Indian border. Why would India want to trade with a country that threatens its borders? Serious question. While India has imported a lot from China previously, I would like to hear his take on how India imports huge amounts from a country that they might fight a war with or will fight a war with. To anyone who thinks this border row is recent, please check online. There was 1 war and have been multiple incidents along the border. There is a lot of talk in India about boycotting China since the most recent border standoff started. Furthermore, some of the other OBOR countries have maritime border disputes with China due to South China Sea claims. Malaysia has backtracked on a few of these projects. How does he make this work if countries that are the "trading partners" have border disputes? I ask this because of how China is behaving in a post COVID world. 2) Bangladesh and Pakistan being touted as major importers... This is questionable in my view. Pakistan has gone from one failed government/country to another. Bangladesh imported 3.89 MT of LNG in 2019. Does China make LNG? Last time I checked, not for exports. Furthermore, other importers of LNG will fulfill their requirements by major exporters. His view on commodities is interesting, don't get me wrong, but I struggle to see it. The only way these countries have a substantial increase in demand for commodities if their economies start booming AND they can channel capital flows correctly. The fact of the matter is that this might not happen even with good demographics. 3) The impact of the coronavirus is also not being considered in my view. Countries are moving their production out of China prior to the virus and have accelerated the process after. Japan is paying companies to leave according to the news sources. South Korea's Lotte Group was basically forced to leave due to geopolitical reasons. It would be interesting to hear his take on ASEAN importing a lot from China if a lot of manufacturing capacity is relocating to ASEAN itself. I respect his view and thesis, but I feel it was not communicated in the best way and lacks some of the fundamental understanding of what goes on in some of those countries he is banking on. I also find his view to be, well, very skewed. He has not addressed China's demographic issues, huge debt burden, cold war 2.0, and how countries will see China going forward and how China sees itself going forward.
    • RH
      Rizwan H.
      18 June 2020 @ 09:40
      In light of recent events (see point 1), I'd like to know if his thesis has changed?
  • NA
    N A.
    9 June 2020 @ 15:05
    Amazing, thank you RV
  • PR
    Paulo R.
    6 June 2020 @ 15:57
    Clark’s Hedge Fund Plunges by Record 35% as Short Bets Backfire. A spokeswoman for Horseman Capital Management confirmed the numbers. “This year has not worked out as planned,” Clark wrote to clients last month, signaling that he was sticking with his bearish wagers. “I increasingly hear talk that central bank and government activism has ended recessions and possibly bear markets. Maybe this is true, but it seems to me that we are at a turning point.” With his assets rapidly diminishing, Clark is facing a race against time to save his fund. He is one of the last short sellers left who’s willing to make such directional bets amid a rising market. Horseman Global Fund managed $241 million at the end of November, down from $1.7 billion at the end of 2015. source Bloomberg.
    • AF
      Andre F.
      9 June 2020 @ 10:58
      You missed putting a dateline on that article. A dateline on an article is basic and critical. That article is from January 2020. The S&P 500 topped on Feb. 19, 2020, bottomed on March 23, 2020 and lost ~1000 pts in its decline. The firm is probably just fine.
  • jR
    james R.
    29 May 2020 @ 14:25
    I keep hearing US ‘bungled’ Covid response. Can someone explain? The survival rate for people aged 60 and below is north of 99.9% in US. The overall monthly US death rates are statistically no different in the same months of 2019 and 2018. Sounds like Joe Biden’s speech writer talking.
    • MP
      Mentor P.
      29 May 2020 @ 15:07
      Here you go:
    • jR
      james R.
      29 May 2020 @ 15:20
      I assume your not going to answer my question. Let me be more specific. What actions did the Governors of the most affected states not take that they should have?
    • RF
      Rick F.
      29 May 2020 @ 18:06
      The U.S. people (health care provides and people that masked up/social distanced) should be commended for their efforts in keeping the numbers down, but yes Trump did blunder the response - it is well documented in his early characterization of the pandemic (that's right it was a hoax projected by the media). Hope all are being safe, the content on this platform is terrific - thank you.
    • jR
      james R.
      29 May 2020 @ 18:49
      Mentor: so I went to your chart for fun and I learned UK, Belgium, France, Netherlands, and Ireland all faring worse than the US. Perhaps, next time, NY Governor should consult with Gambia and Zimbabwe seeing as they fared the best according to your chart.
    • DS
      David S.
      31 May 2020 @ 01:31
      james R. - It is the nature of a politician to try look good. If the numbers do not look good, make them look good. This happened in Wuhan and everywhere else. Your 99.9% statistic will easily be proven false, maybe by other false numbers. It seems like we have had COVID-19 forever, but it is just a few months. We need to focus on social distancing until herd immunity is obtained with the vaccine or billions of people all over the world having had the virus. Everyone is working on better treatments and a vaccine. Until then, not getting COVID-19 is the best strategy. Next is testing, tracking and tracing. Whatever the difference is. I live on an island known for tourism. On the island we have a low outbreak and good recovery. The problem for opening to tourist in my mind is we have under 400 ICU beds. It seems to me to be difficult to invite a lot of tourist in. If they get COVID-19 we cannot put them on a plane to go home. This pandemic is going to last a long time as herd immunity will take time. Forget the statistics to be used as a tactic or strategy. I do not trust the number in Wuhan or Florida. Let's just try to do our best and leave the statistics to the historians. DLS
    • jR
      james R.
      31 May 2020 @ 04:18
      David S: then prove it and quit your blathering. Let me help, US pop - 328m. US deaths as of last week 100k. Answer: .0003. Statistically indistinguishable from last major Flu season in 2017.
    • DS
      David S.
      1 June 2020 @ 00:47
      james R. – With the flu in 2017 we did not have social distancing. The flu was not contagious for days before symptoms. (Here I go blathering again.) If you believe your argument and are not just blathering, you may enjoy high risk activities. Please choose a venue with good hospital care available. I would prefer you were safe, as we will be able to read your comments for a long time. DLS
    • jR
      james R.
      8 June 2020 @ 13:24
      David - As I expected, no data, just blathering.
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    8 June 2020 @ 02:43
    Great to hear another point of view! He’s always fascinating to listen to.
  • LP
    Lauri P.
    6 June 2020 @ 21:12
    Somewhat a contrarian piece, still won't be putting money into China and support the authoritarian regime. EM markets which would eventually benefit regardless of China seem the better idea, yet probably still too early.
  • JH
    Joel H.
    6 June 2020 @ 03:57
    Yup, this is great, thx guys!
  • SD
    Sanket D.
    6 June 2020 @ 01:31
    Thank you Russell and RV.
  • IV
    Ivan V.
    5 June 2020 @ 15:52
    In the last 13F filing for Horseman Capital, you can see their 3rd largest position ($4M at the time) is Luckin Coffee (LK). Avg. estimated price/share was 30$. Keep that in mind, when listening to their CIO.
  • KZ
    Keyvan Z.
    31 May 2020 @ 02:01
    There is a part that I did not understand and would appreciate some clarification. How is strong dollar and low commodity prices a natural depressant on China’s export numbers as Russell Clark mentioned (around 25 min remaining in the conversation)?
    • KD
      Karl D.
      1 June 2020 @ 05:57
      I'll have a go. As the global trade of goods and services is mostly priced in USD, when the USD rises it reduces the consumption of non-USD countries (basically global activity). China as a larger exporter will therefore see less demand of its exports in a high USD environment. Low commodity prices are more a consequence/symptom of the higher USD. Russell's point is that given China can still generate record high exports in a high USD environment, if there is a shift to global growth and a lower USD, China's growth could explode again.
    • KZ
      Keyvan Z.
      5 June 2020 @ 04:02
      Thanks Karl, I see your analogy and it makes sense from that angle of it, the other angle is if a countries currency is devalued against dollar, they get to export more volume at a lower price, so the export volume goes up, but the total dollars they collect for those exports are lower overall.
  • JG
    James G.
    4 June 2020 @ 17:09
    Was this cat on drugs? His slurring and eyes... Hmmm someone I want to take advice from.
  • PM
    Paul M.
    4 June 2020 @ 15:48
    Russell Clark is one of the smartest brains in macro. Ignore him at your own peril.
  • KS
    Karl S.
    4 June 2020 @ 03:07
    The criticism of this interview seems to indicate the real vision base has now transitioned to CNBC viewers trying to find the next day trade. For you critics, good luck with your wealth. Investing is not about politics, it’s about abandoning biases and thinking about the future. Russell does that and raoul serves as a great interviewer. If you disagree, certainly downvote me or save your time and do whatever the dudes with ponytails do at noon on CNBC.
  • JR
    Jason R.
    3 June 2020 @ 22:10
    Russell has always been a contrarian and describes his view pretty well. He backs up his position with data and anecdotes. The only concern that I had is he seems to trust the data and information coming from the CCP. I can see the growth in China --- just not sure that I would put a lot of stock in the government data from there. Still great interview -- this is exactly what I except from Real Vision -- talented individual with a unique view point of the future (even if it is not what most Americans want to hear)! Thanks Raoul and Russell!
  • CB
    C B.
    3 June 2020 @ 21:09
    I disagree with his "buy China" conclusion, but agree with the idea that a new trade axis is being built around the ASEAN nations. A better way to play this might be to take another look at Raoul's Monsoon theory and buy frontier markets that have the demographic tailwind and are the next geographies to see outsourced manufacturing and capital creation.
  • NR
    Nicolas R.
    3 June 2020 @ 14:36
    For what it's worth I lived and worked in China for 13 years (Beijing & Shanghai) and won't invest a single $/RMB there anymore. Repatriated everything. Now investing in US. Jobs, manufacturing and innovation are all coming back.
  • ea
    edwin a.
    3 June 2020 @ 13:47
    I've traveled and worked in southeast asia off and on for years, and I can say there is plenty of anecdotal, "on-the-ground" evidence supporting what Clark says about China's penetration into nearby markets, many with young and growing populations and already upward trends. It's always difficult to predict timing, but it is hard to dismiss that enormous growth is coming to this area soon. It's good to see RV making a real effort to consider merging and frontier markets. To many Americans (and most ETFs) "emerging" means a lot of China and a little of India, and not much else. But Indonesia has nearly 250 million people. Southeast Asia has over 650 million. Include other parts of the Pacific and South Asia, and there are literally billions of people *outside* of China and India in this region, including markets like Myanmar that sit near huge neighbors and are looking at rapid growth after decades of isolation. I also like Ed Harrison's description (another video) of this region as a "BATNA" for China which the US is under-estimating. Without turning this into politics, I think from a bi-partisan perspective that the US pull-out from the Trans-Pacific Partnership may look very unwise in just a few short years ...
  • CG
    Christian G.
    3 June 2020 @ 13:29
    FglaffphwnnSnnnjbbnnwe ugly nnjjjkkomjhk
  • PJ
    Peter J.
    3 June 2020 @ 09:56
    Another great interview, great perspectives!!!
  • YW
    Yowshi W.
    3 June 2020 @ 01:21
    Im impressed..thank you for fixing your buffering. It helps like where I am where internet is slow and bandwidth is limited...thank you RV!!
  • PG
    Philippe G.
    2 June 2020 @ 13:14
    Interesting conversation....plenty to discuss and debate.
  • RK
    Robert K.
    2 June 2020 @ 09:24
    Being pro-china is in no way contrarian. All major investment houses peddling investments with the China A shares storytelling luring in institutional investors. To be contrarian is to say "no" to facilitating flows of hard $ into CCP supported companies (like e.g. Huawei). To those glorifying technological advances of the basically national-socialistic regime of China I'd recommend reflecting on nazi Germany of the 1930s building state of the art infrastructure and technology of the time. Grow a f*cking spine.
  • CH
    Connor H.
    30 May 2020 @ 20:07
    Mr. Clark is no doubt a big thinker and very intelligent however he does have a way of not answering a question directly, which is irritating. It would be interesting to have Kyle Bass on to debate him on his bullish views of China. Finally, there is little actionable here for the personal investor.
    • SK
      Shammi K.
      30 May 2020 @ 22:17
      Bingo to debating Bass for a shake out.
    • AB
      Andrew B.
      1 June 2020 @ 02:19
      All I want is for this debate to happen. Raoul please! A 2hr special if need be. We would all pay to see this main event. $39.99 - pay per view
    • RK
      Roderick K.
      1 June 2020 @ 06:53
      If we're making this a 39.99 pay per view event, I would like to have Bruce Buffer do the introductions.
    • ST
      Simon T.
      2 June 2020 @ 05:39
      Would be good to see that debate but Kyle is short on China since a long time and he lost big time there
    • ST
      Simon T.
      2 June 2020 @ 05:40
      His analysis on HK banks balance sheet compared to GDP is a joke - it’s no different than those of NYC or London
  • SP
    Scott P.
    2 June 2020 @ 01:37
    1. Does the CCP have money in his fund? Serious question. 2. If the West lets China take over after everything that has happened we deserve that future. 3. I would love to see Kyle and Russell square off in a debate. 4. In the last few weeks, China has threatened Canada, England, Australia, India and the USA. The CCP is acting like a mob boss on the world stage. In what world does the West trust them? Or other countries in Asia for that matter. They invade Taiwan and what's to stop them from going after the Philippines? 5. In a world filled with robots and are China's 1.4 billion people an advantage? They are liabilities to me.
    • ST
      Simon T.
      2 June 2020 @ 05:31
      Sorry Scott - the US has been bullying pretty much every country in this world - even it’s so called European friends - there is a new cooperation forming, Eurasian basically as a result of it and frankly speaking Europe, Australia, NZ do not have a trade deficit with China but the only thing US is good at are marketing including wars, more wars and dividing nations including their own - the US tech mania is just in its final bubble as they are getting taxed by every country in a fair way
  • JO
    J O.
    2 June 2020 @ 02:38
    Not a fan of this one. He sounds like he works for the CCP. Maybe I’ve got home country bias, but overtly betting against the USA innovative machine is usually a mistake. As another post mentions, perhaps that’s why he was down 35% last year (may not be true...jus repeating what another posted.)
  • SJ
    Sean J.
    1 June 2020 @ 21:59
    This Globalist and his way of thinking is core to the problems the American people face in the USA. Thankfully, that time is coming to an end.
  • EF
    Ed F.
    1 June 2020 @ 19:42
    A Disclaimer to Viewers should be given - His hedge fund lost 19% last year and has shrunk from $1.5bn down to sub $250m. This does not negate his bullish views on China but adds some perspective. No choice but to be contrarian to grow AUM on the back of that past performance....
    • NC
      N C.
      1 June 2020 @ 21:09
      Incorrect, Horseman's Global Fund lost 34.91% in 2019. Also, as of today, the firm has been renamed to Russell Clark Investment Management.
  • RB
    Robert B.
    1 June 2020 @ 12:54
    Point re trade with belt and road countries being larger now than US, highly possible this is China trying to undercut local competitors in those areas, in which case their profit margins will be significantly smaller... Unfortunately I don't know how to test this hypothesis!
  • JL
    James L.
    1 June 2020 @ 12:19
    I have many connections in China and what Clark said is very true. I need to know how can we capitalise on this?
  • EJ
    Elías J.
    1 June 2020 @ 11:48
    Hello to all, Do you guys have any idea of how to play an oil recovery? Any good oil companies with low cost production to look at? And with good balance sheets to avoid insolvency while that happens?
  • WW
    Woody W.
    1 June 2020 @ 10:55
    P.S I am very dissapointed about this episode. Russell Clark seems like a Chinese shill.
  • WW
    Woody W.
    1 June 2020 @ 10:52
    I have to disagree with Raol and Russell. The U.S is Not against China. It is ONLY against the Communist regime. The Trump administration has addressed this very clearly. In fact, the U.S has been building Communist China for many decades. An Asian country and USA can be both economically powerful and coexist in harmony. We can find the examples in Taiwan, Japan and Korea.
  • NC
    N C.
    1 June 2020 @ 06:29
    I admire Russell Clark so much and in so many ways. As a fellow money manager, I was empathetic when hearing how his AUM had taken such a big hit. Many of us who survive have experienced this, though many more who have are no longer in the game. Moreover, I love his intellectualism, sincerity, and contrarianism. I am looking forward to the day his performance again reflects his superior level of thinking. Horseman was over +40% YTD at the March bottom but is now only +11% YTD with the rebound so I don't think we are yet at that point.
  • IP
    IDA P.
    1 June 2020 @ 05:52
    a real contrarian!
  • LC
    Liliana C.
    1 June 2020 @ 05:48
    Love the way Russell develops his theses. Helps me to consider a different viewpoint and for that I’m most grateful. 👍🙏
  • JC
    John C.
    30 May 2020 @ 14:50
    By the way re Xiaomi, I have owned two of their phones and both eventually broke down. Not exactly a mark of quality. Not sure why at this point anyone would buy Chinese phones although I do get the joke that Apple and Samsung have become exorbitantly expensive and the Chinese phones are cheap.
    • wk
      wai k.
      30 May 2020 @ 15:09
      Xiaomi is generally low end product, from his proudly speakof Xiaomi can reveal his understanding of it, is little.
    • MZ
      Mark Z.
      1 June 2020 @ 05:01
      Xiaomi phones were the first of the Chinese phones that weren't 10 years back in design.... And they are extremely inexpensive, which is the big win in India.
  • MZ
    Mark Z.
    1 June 2020 @ 04:57
    This was refreshing... And walked us through his reasoning and logic.
  • DP
    D P.
    29 May 2020 @ 06:43
    3 out of 4 comments so far negative. The man must be onto something.
    • SM
      Shantanu M.
      29 May 2020 @ 15:02
      Exactly, i loved the video. The man always talks about the future, the way he had nailed the dynamics of March crash way back in his 18/19 videos with his predictions about oil, yuan, auto-callables and futures being limit down is just mind-blowing to me.
    • TP
      Timothy P.
      29 May 2020 @ 21:17
      The 85% of his capital that fled his fund would disagree with you, especially after posting his worst numbers ever.
    • sw
      stefan w.
      1 June 2020 @ 04:45
      It's great to have someone on with a deeply contrarian view to those prevalent on RV. Unfortunately many of the convictions in this interview did not seem to be well substantiated with data. Observational anecdotes seem to justify trade ideas more than deep-dive analysis. I was eager to hear some real insights demonstrating value-creation leading to GDP contribution in belt & road projects, for example, but didn't hear it. There is so much to be said about great value in EM (though its been a terrible trade recently and not one I'd be pivoting into any time soon), but I thought Russell Clark didn't really address this very compellingly nor discuss how he would think about structuring trades for this asset class, when (as he believes will happen) the USD weakens.
  • LL
    Lukee L.
    1 June 2020 @ 04:11
    Is this guy a Chinese Shill? As an Australian I absolutely do not support CCP belt and road investment here
  • SG
    Shu G.
    31 May 2020 @ 17:49
    It's very refreshing and different from those who only spread gloom and doom against China and Belt +Road. It's clear to me that China is playing a very long game with sound strategy vs "no adults in the room" US. In light of this HK sanction war, EU led by Merkel is taking a very opportunistic stand with China. US and UK might find shorting their own feet soon and so goes USD hegemony.
    • AB
      Andrew B.
      1 June 2020 @ 03:22
      If china was playing the long game they wouldn't arrest their own doctors
  • EH
    Edward H.
    30 May 2020 @ 21:26
    Great points about the dangers of the US weponizing the dollar. US only sees their power, not the risks of what happens to their global influence with countries left out (most of the world). I agree that ASEAN sees to be a place both China and the US are looking to invest in. I'm not sure how China's imperliaism in the South China Sea fits with this move. I do also share some of the concerns voiced over his views on China. Hard to separate China from the CCP. No arguments that they've created an economic powerhouse and they are playing chess while the ROW plays chequers. But the CCP is a brutal regime at heart, so I find it hard to listen to what came across as a vindicaiton of their policies. I say this as a global citizen who lived in HK from 2008-2018.
    • SK
      Shammi K.
      30 May 2020 @ 22:15
      Well said.
    • SG
      Shu G.
      31 May 2020 @ 17:57
      Lots of people have these innate negative views against CCP but CCP is not what you think it is. If you only allow yourself to ask the question if CCP is as evil as you think why it enjoys majority Chinese support? How does the western neo democratic parties rob their people bare? Are they better than CCP when it comes to server their people?
    • MM
      Mark M.
      1 June 2020 @ 01:02
      Hi Edward H. As a fellow Aussie, I think Russell's understanding of China is typical of those of us in Australia who have a view to the world of geopolitics. This is because Australia has long tried to straddle the fence between our traditional ally the US, and our biggest economic market, China. And Trump has not treated the US's traditional allies at all well since he became President. I think that most of us wish the US had someone at the helm who understood that diplomacy is both a noun and an adjective - or even has a place in the political world. China will play the long game, as always, even as Donald Trump swipes the pieces from the board and storms off in a rage of tweets. From a distance, the only strategy in play from the US perspective seems to be hastening the decline of America on the world stage.
    • jg
      john g.
      1 June 2020 @ 01:19
      To Suh G - economic improvement in China have delighted the populace. But remember the starting point.
  • mr
    martyn r.
    1 June 2020 @ 01:14
    would love to see more discussion on passive investment and it's relation to 'safe stocks' which make up the majority of ETFs
  • TB
    Tobin B.
    1 June 2020 @ 00:32
    I was drinking while watching this too ;)
  • ME
    Michael E.
    30 May 2020 @ 18:40
    You must realize these investment advisors what they say publicly , they do the opposite with their own $$$$$$. You must do your own research and look at their action not their words.
    • DP
      David P.
      31 May 2020 @ 01:41
      How is this any more than a poisoning the well fallacy? You don’t argue against his thesis at all. A majority of Real Vision interviews are with advisors; why subscribe at all?
    • DS
      David S.
      1 June 2020 @ 00:26
      If the trades are in their own accounts, how do you tell what their personal trades are? DLS
  • at
    arthur t.
    31 May 2020 @ 22:29
    China vs US while the Captain of one of them clasps a boat wheel disconnected from the ship.
  • SZ
    Szar Z.
    31 May 2020 @ 21:04
    This guy will make a lot of money, and then the Communists will confiscate all his wealth using all the money he invested in the Communists
  • DS
    David S.
    29 May 2020 @ 20:43
    Years ago, the Chinese Empire tried isolationism and it did not work. It is interesting that the driving force of America today is isolationism. This plays into the hands of Russia and China who are rushing into the political vacuums as the US exits - Asia, the Middle East, Europe and Latin America. All this isolation to protect manufacturing corporations with robots within the US. Instead of so many negative knee-jerk reactions to Mr. Clark's macro view, we should be analyzing where he is correct and what can be done about it. The US isolationism is a recent phenomenon as is the attempts to bully our allies to join us in sanctions. Is it really in our long-term best interest? Think about it. Do not just hide in the past. DLS
    • AD
      Antonio D.
      29 May 2020 @ 22:51
      It's incredible what one individual will do and say to stoke their own ego and self-interest, to the detriment of a country's long-term interest. The current administration will ruin the U.S. and USD to a point that it cannot bounce back, but leave the broken pieces for a next generation to deal with. This is why the EM play and other hard currency narratives are also compelling in my view.
    • BS
      Brian S.
      31 May 2020 @ 19:54
      The US is changing its policies to suite a new threat and is putting its dollars to better use. It has learned you can’t win wars with soldiers in foreign countries. This is not a new policy and supported by both parties. It is not isolationism. It is time RV produces a Geopolitical series to educate its subscribers. It would Help to understand the changes we are seeing and why they are occurring.
  • TP
    Timothy P.
    29 May 2020 @ 16:29
    Mr Clark was so pro-China in this interview a jokingly expected him to break into Mandarin halfway through. Then I wondered what his investment book was, and turned up these bits: "The Horseman Global Fund, run by the career contrarian Russell Clark, lost 35% in 2019, its worst year ever." Ref - "Horseman Capital suffers big losses as stocks rally." Ref - Horseman Capital’s Russell Clark has been bearish for more than seven years. And if he’s wrong? “This could be my farewell interview,” he says. Ref - And finally, from the Market Insider piece -- "Now Clark is in a race against time to save the fund, which had about $241 million in assets at the end of November, down from the $1.7 billion it held in 2015, Bloomberg reported." I think I'll be passing on his "excellent" advice. If he's willing to suffer a drawdown of 85% in assets, I don't think he has a clear view of anything -- Especially China. Also Raoul, I don't understand how you can say "The world seems to change every 10 years" and then say "everyone seems to be getting pulled into this narrative (about China)" as if it isn't the very change that you are describing. Puzzling indeed.
    • cc
      christopher c.
      29 May 2020 @ 16:34
      Some investors are tactical and therefore forego returns until the thesis turns positive... this can take years and take the most discipline and indirectness... unlike immediacy which is craved by the market mob these days...
    • TP
      Timothy P.
      29 May 2020 @ 20:22
      @Christopher C In my book "Tactical Investing" doesn't include taking positions that lose me money over seven years. So much so, that 85% of my investors flee for the hills.
    • CT
      Cherry T.
      31 May 2020 @ 18:30
      I don't think he's wrong, just extremely early. Of course that's just a different kind of wrong but the distinction is important. Russel very well may have the last laugh. Regardless looking from a civilian point of view it does appear that the west has begun a kind of decline as political infighting, corruption, corporate socialism, and degradation of the communal and familial values have been on the rise. The very essence that made America and the West so strong is slowly being lost from both the bottom up and as well from top to bottom. It's not wise to bet against America but this isn't the same America I believed in from decades past. We're continuing down a road that's quite obviously in the wrong direction, and something has to give. Hopefully as a generation of millennials enter government and positions of power change will come, but to be very frank the pessimism and beat down gloom of this generation is disheartening to see and leaves little hope.
  • FS
    Faheem S.
    31 May 2020 @ 16:38
    I am of the opinion that the chinese had done all the ground work in changing the future of global trade on the basis of a weak US under Donald Trump. The HK move signals the beginning of their plans
  • RA
    Rob A.
    30 May 2020 @ 05:20
    Like nearly all the find managers RV interview, he ducked the question as to how he would go about trading his thesis spectacularly! He spoke continuously for 5 mins and weirdly drifted on off topic to talk about gilts!? What annoys me is that Raoul accepted that superfluous answer and moved on to the next question. The RV audience should stand united on this. We pay a subscription fee to listen to these guys who are clearly affiliated sponsors. How about you set some ground rules and insist in advance that they give some value away in the form of tradable ideas. It’s not like we are asking for a portfolio snapshot.
    • RA
      Rob A.
      30 May 2020 @ 05:20
      ^fund managers. Apologies for there typo, I’m using an iPhone.
    • KT
      K T.
      30 May 2020 @ 13:24
      Some retail options of his thought thesis were deliberately exposed by Raoul. He is not going to give away his book as he has his own investors interests in mind.
    • CT
      Crispim T.
      30 May 2020 @ 15:54
      Agree, time is money. Brevity and clarity is worth a lot and that's why we need it.
    • JB
      James B.
      31 May 2020 @ 07:19
      Get a grip of yourself mate. RV isn't about spoon-feeding you the exact names and times to buy them. It's about giving insight on the broader macro themes and insights from industry insiders that you would never normally get (as retail) and it does an amazing job at that. I think Russel gave a great interview and a lot of great investment ideas to look into further. He also specifically said the names he is looking at are very illiquid so he probably hasn't finished building his position.
    • JP
      Jan P.
      31 May 2020 @ 14:20
      Get out of duration, look for copper to bottom, look for top of SaaS, get into SEA..... There is a lot there, if you listen for it
  • SG
    Sashi G.
    31 May 2020 @ 09:57
    Refreshing to hear someone finally point out that the US losing its way and pulling away from world leadership. Not something that happened overnight. It has been maybe 15 years or so in the making and maybe accelerated in the past 5 years or so. Nothing political here - I do not live in the US - just a fact.
  • SG
    Sashi G.
    31 May 2020 @ 09:53
    Enjoy Russell Clark always - his style and logic behind his thesis. Whether we agree or not is a separate issue. I do think commodity inflation is the next event that the market at large has ignored and will be its next "surprise". He hinted at his change of view but the reason for it was not got into. Nor did Raoul pick up on that although his deflation view/weak commodity prices is well known. Does not detract from the quality but I agree with other viewers comments that the dialogue/responsiveness between Raoul and Russell was missing here. It was as if a prepared script was followed; not so much an interview/discussion.
  • DB
    Daniel B.
    31 May 2020 @ 09:21
    Russell is one of the most interesting and insightful commentators on Real Vision. Only natural that he's an Aussie really..
  • AS
    Ash S.
    30 May 2020 @ 05:03
    Great interview. I think if was a very fair point the speed at which China whisked people away from their family's who tested positive, undertook temperature testing checkpoints everywhere and built hospitals in record time. Hope to see you back.
    • AB
      Andrew B.
      30 May 2020 @ 12:15
      How about the physicians that they arrested and potentially murdered? The muslims they are murdering? The people in HK? The Chinese have zero social capital. I would never in my life invest with them.
    • JC
      John C.
      30 May 2020 @ 14:34
      Those weren't 'hospitals' the were effectively internment/isolation facilities to isolate the infected without adequate medical care. They also locked up infected people in their homes and jailed the doctors who sounded the early alarm. China's incredible and reckless ineptitude in this crisis knows no bounds and the CCP has a lot to answer for.
    • JB
      James B.
      31 May 2020 @ 07:23
      What about the speed at which they arrested/disappeared the doctors who were initially blowing the whistle?? and also the speed with which they pressured the WHO to downplay the effects of the virus and not label it a pandemic? Oh, maybe you mean the speed with which they locked down their own country but still let people spread it internationally by leaving Wuhan on international flights? China did nothing right in this. They contained it quickly with Draconian enforcement such as welding people into their apartments and hiding the real numbers from the world.
  • DM
    Dominic M.
    31 May 2020 @ 02:06
    Referring to the US's financial/economic elite by saying "there are no adults there" = spot on.
  • MH
    Mark H.
    29 May 2020 @ 10:39
    Interesting take on India in all of this. The next investment cycle could be something quite significant going forward.
    • DS
      David S.
      31 May 2020 @ 01:43
      The current and next investment cycle is hold on to your money. DLS
  • DF
    Dominic F.
    29 May 2020 @ 08:40
    In my opinion we should have nothing to do with the CCP
    • DS
      David S.
      31 May 2020 @ 01:36
      It the President gets his way, you may be happy. DLS
  • PB
    Paul B.
    31 May 2020 @ 01:29
    Kyle Bass is wrong on China..This Guy is spot on IMO, it will cause a War on Tech, Currency's, Trade, Embargo Etc. This has been building for 2 years now and it's going to get much much worse
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    30 May 2020 @ 08:56
    Unlike many of those commenting here, I found this a fascinating, original and very thought-provoking conversation. Russell is brilliant and a deep thinker - that much is clear, and always has been from watching him over the years. But he didn’t really address the most important question here - not just the broader trends and dynamics he sees emerging, but more specifically how one would set themselves up to trade and invest around that core thesis. This is my only constructive criticism of the interview— other than that, a wide-ranging and contrarian take.
    • WS
      Will S.
      30 May 2020 @ 17:32
      Agree’ what is the trade?
    • MV
      Matthew V.
      31 May 2020 @ 01:21
      He did mention copper several times
  • AW
    Abigail W.
    29 May 2020 @ 15:24
    Many thanks for the great interview, really appreciate view of Russell on China. I sailed to several islands in the Caribbean and the South Pacific Ocean and talked to the locals: The infrastructures like road, bridge and marina are all financed and built by the Chinese, for sure they don't do it for free, but at least on a fair basis. China will experience a difficult period coping with US, but I have more faith in a country that is able to follow through on its strategic visions. Just my two cents, and being half Chinese I am biased to a certain degree.
    • DS
      David S.
      31 May 2020 @ 01:13
      I wonder if China would like to invest in Puerto Rico's infrastructure. It seems the US does not. DLS
  • JA
    Jonathan A.
    29 May 2020 @ 16:41
    I found Russell Clark's theses thought provoking in some ways. But... 1. Referring to Huawei simply as a good product ignores obvious deeper implications of Chinese efforts to restructure internet standards into the ultimate surveillance tool for totalitarian society. 2. Praising Chinese handling of Covid is bizarre. (ie. silencing of Taiwan through the WHO, official stats, attempts to suppress doctors breaking news etc) 3. TikTok, another significant theme of the discussion, has major surveillance and censorship issues. If no one cares whether we head into a full-on dystopian society, I guess it doesn't matter.
    • HR
      Humberto R.
      29 May 2020 @ 17:00
      I agree. Chinese trust has dropped from 20% to -20% post covid. Trust is huge when trading and negotiating with countries. China is supposedly moving up the value chain and expecting to export to developing nations instead of developed nations that can afford those higher value exports. Something doesn't add up.
    • JW
      Joseph W.
      30 May 2020 @ 02:35
      Agree, the treating of China as a reliable reporting partner is inexcusable.
    • DS
      David S.
      31 May 2020 @ 01:03
      The US may not be a full-on dystopian society, but we have many problems right here a home. These problems are not being addressed politically, so they are being addressed in the streets. I am old enough to have gone to a white segregated high school in the North Carolina. When I graduated high school, I hope that within my lifetime we could at least have racial equality under law. I still have a way to go, I hope. We also have a long way to go just to get racial equality under law. DLS
  • MT
    Mark T.
    29 May 2020 @ 18:21
    Don't know if he is right or wrong, but he sure seems to put a lot of trust in what China says it does/is doing. I just don't think China is trustworthy.
    • DS
      David S.
      29 May 2020 @ 19:12
      I know that China is trying to make China great again. China will do what it believes is in its long-term interest - right or wrong. Mr. Clark may not agree with the methods, he is just trying to figure out how to invest. DLS
    • TP
      Timothy P.
      29 May 2020 @ 21:21
      @Mart T -- I found it especially ironic since his homeland depends on China much more than the USA does. Its well known that China goal-seeks their GDP numbers, amongst others. Anyone who trusts their data deserves to lose their money -- which Mr Clark has, to the tune of 85% of his investors running for the hills. Sometimes when you're a contrarian, you aren't clever, you're just plain wrong. Mr Clark is finding this out in a very public and embarrassing way.
    • DS
      David S.
      29 May 2020 @ 22:39
      Timothy P. - It is public but certainly not embarrassing. Mr. Clark plays on long-term themes. How many patient investors do you think are running around? The patient money will be well rewarded with Mr. Clark. You might think that it is clever to have an ad hominem attack, but a discussion of differences in your opinions would be more productive. DLS
    • JW
      Joseph W.
      30 May 2020 @ 02:13
      Interesting interview, but it was a lot of Chinese propaganda ignoring demographics and household debt growth. He’s comparing the US and China as if they were both export driven which he knows is not the case. China ultimately can’t live at current employment without the US market and they know it. They will either need to acquiesce to US demands or go to war and kill a bunch of their people. I don’t know which one they will do.
    • TP
      Timothy P.
      30 May 2020 @ 04:52
      @David S - - surely you're joking. If I had funds with someone that lost 30+%, I wouldn't consider their strategies or outlook to be superior. Unless you are in the camp of rolling losses for tax purposes.
    • DS
      David S.
      31 May 2020 @ 00:47
      Timothy P. - What if you made tons of money on his other calls. Mr. Pal says he is trying to be more than 50% correct. That is why there is sizing of positions. It is hard to look at returns in a vacuum. I would agree that if I lost 30% on a position, I would be upset. DLS
  • JT
    Jayne T.
    30 May 2020 @ 22:55
    China uses MMT to its total advantage. It will dominate Asia and Africa over the next 5 years and beyond.
  • jg
    john g.
    30 May 2020 @ 22:13
    There was something Russell Clark mentioned I totally did not understand. While he was a bit opaque on strategies, he mentioned what I call "shorting the box". I've always thought of this as a tax strategy (to convert a short term gain into a long term gain), but otherwise why do it? Aren't there also margin requirements EVEN if you own the security - which is an opportunity cost. PLEASE HELP!
  • ND
    Nitul D.
    30 May 2020 @ 21:38
    A contrarian perspective, insights there!
  • DJ
    D J.
    30 May 2020 @ 20:18
    Good job of RV to provide an unbiast view. Personally there is some merit to the idea.
  • TC
    Tom C.
    30 May 2020 @ 20:06
    Raoul - watch this as a great crisp way to analyse future from macro . (ignore crypto aspect to just see overview). great first 15 mins
  • SG
    Satvinder G.
    30 May 2020 @ 18:56
    I could not follow this guy. Silk Roads did not put me to sleep but he did!
  • JE
    J E.
    30 May 2020 @ 18:33
    I feel like I say this every time, but one of the best interviews.. if you understand the history of China and layer the belt and road, it seems unstoppable in many ways, although everyone seems to know China is in danger of imminent collapse. What I love about Clark’s more nuanced view is that it’s from a very practical/value based assessment of productive capital outlay, something that is conspicuously missing in the west, despite the financial acrobatics. I love this thesis..
  • DW
    Daniel W.
    30 May 2020 @ 17:32
    Another great interview! One of the most interesting. Up there with Howard Marks and Kyle about a debate with Russell and Kyle?
  • WM
    William M.
    30 May 2020 @ 17:24
    Outstanding! Great that RV has both this and the great Kyle Bass video.... And as Louis Rukeyser used to say, "and one of them might even be right someday...."
  • VB
    Vikram B.
    30 May 2020 @ 16:33
    Excellent and thought provoking. This is what I was waiting for - something to properly challenge the default (including my own) convictions. I will reflect on this.
  • NF
    Neal F.
    29 May 2020 @ 11:20
    Not sure I understand Raoul interviewing a guy running a $130 MM fund but letting the most junior staff member interview Ross Beatty. There was more to be learned from Mr. Beatty.
    • OA
      Oliver A.
      29 May 2020 @ 14:00
      Haha, when that kid to a drink out of giant blue plastic cup and said "awesome" I turned it off. What a shame.
    • PP
      Patrick P.
      30 May 2020 @ 15:40
      Neal ... you hit the nail on the head with a sledge hammer... Such disrespect for a Titan.
  • ME
    Michael E.
    30 May 2020 @ 14:48
    Mr. Clark is a legend in investment business. I just have small issue on his position, how can you have a creative minds under communist system. Would Mr. Clark go & be a Chinese citizens for all the potential growth that he sees. Amazing over 80% Chinese youth want to migrate to USA?????
    • JC
      John C.
      30 May 2020 @ 14:59
      Honestly I am getting tired of fund managers and corporate executives openly supporting China and the CCP. It's probably the worst example of 'doing it for the money' and chasing filthy lucre. One could make a very good case the CCP are arguably as bad as the Nazis at this point yet we all just sit around and passively act like they are just going through 'growing pains' and will eventually reform. Whereas the opposite is true and they have gotten progressively worse and more aggressive over the years. We're talking about a very evil regime that Western corporations and governments have placated and kowtowed to for decades now. A communist one that jails & kills internal opposition, harvest internal organs, steals everything it can get it hands on, encroaches on all it's neighbors constantly, etc. Sort of sad and pathetic really. Particularly when we as investors let it happen just because it enabled all of us to make more money (myself included). Really wonder if the US will be able to go it alone versus China (with India as an ally?) because the EU clearly won't be breaking ties with the CCP anytime soon (Volkswagen just signed a $2b deal with China over the weekend in the wake of the Hong Kong effective takeover). Whatever happens, Mr. Clark's scenario China growth scenario is a very, very scary one and one that we should all not want to come to pass. Not something that we should all be celebrating or trying to expedite and follow as some sort of perverted 'investment thesis.' At some point you can't separate the politics from your investment views......
  • KL
    Kyle L.
    30 May 2020 @ 14:50
    Wow that was so good I hated every minute of it! The most contrarian view on RV so far.
  • SU
    Shakeel U.
    29 May 2020 @ 22:21
    A nice refreshing change from Kyle Bass racist propaganda 😀
    • AD
      Antonio D.
      29 May 2020 @ 22:56
      I did not finish the Kyle Bass interview for the same reason. But, as far as I got, it is interesting to have the perspective as backdrop to the China/HK events. I'll still be interested to see what aspects of the KB interview play out.
    • AN
      Andrew N.
      29 May 2020 @ 23:41
      I don't agree with everything that Kyle Bass says, but he is always careful to distinguish between people of Han Chinese background and the CCP. And at least he has some principles that he holds higher than money, which is more than I can say for this guy.
    • JK
      John K.
      30 May 2020 @ 02:14
      Kyle Bass loves to spread his internal Sinophobia thats woven in his rhetoric but NOT clearly distinguishing between Chinese Citizens and the CCP
    • SC
      Scott C.
      30 May 2020 @ 04:33
      Please point out the inaccuracies in Kyle’s position on the CCP. If you are unable to refute his arguments but only imply he is racist for having them, then it is you who is peddling CCP propaganda.
    • DH
      David H.
      30 May 2020 @ 04:50
      Stop attacking Kyle. His observations are right on and important to hear. Thanks RV
    • TP
      Timothy P.
      30 May 2020 @ 04:57
      When someone classifies Kyle Bass as "racist" -- I hear "I can't tolerate criticism against China". It isn't racist to tell the world what China's CCP is up to. The old "hundred names" are honorable, but not the criminals that run the CCP. If you are suggesting a govt that harvests prisoner's organs, sequesters people based on religious beliefs and viciously stomps down democratic protests in Hong Kong as a proper way to do things -- well, I'm sorry, but you are on the wrong side of history. The only proof I need is how China penalizes their citizens for speaking out. The price of truth in China is to forfeit your life or those of your family. That is despicable and morally bereft to me.
    • FN
      Frans N.
      30 May 2020 @ 12:16
      Your conjecture on Kyle's racial inclinations perhaps testifies to your poor understanding of global politics and incapability to discern between a racist and an activist. Kyle Bass did a RV interview with a Chinese billionaire last year, where the mutual rhetoric was consistently non-racial and focused on the inhumanity deployed by the CCP. More forthcoming is that perhaps you are the racist, since you label the CCP and the collective Chinese people as being the same thing. Finally, by your prognosis, Chinese people in Hong Kong are racist because they speak out against the CCP.
    • KT
      K T.
      30 May 2020 @ 13:38
      What's tube comments? I have lived in/out of Asia for 30 years, unfortunately what KB says rings very true, particularly, but not solely from a western standpoint. "Lightbulb".....hence the world we see today.
    • JC
      John C.
      30 May 2020 @ 14:39
      If that is what you got out of the Kyle Bass interview you're sadly misinformed and didn't understand any of his rationale. Name-calling is not allowed on RV from what I understand. And we get enough of this type of silly globalist PC-style 'arguments' from the corrupt liberal mainstream media.
  • BH
    Bin H.
    30 May 2020 @ 02:54
    Thanks for the show, picked up some nice points. It would be great if Russell talks about his massive short early last year. Very interested to learn what he thinks now
    • JC
      John C.
      30 May 2020 @ 14:37
      I'd also like to know more about how Horeseman had to close down a fund and lost billions in the last couple of years particulary when they were down 35% early in 2020. Did they stay short and score big in March when markets finally capitulated?
  • RI
    R I.
    30 May 2020 @ 03:15
    Unfortunately (if you’re a US citizen like me) he’s likely correct in his prognostications.
    • JC
      John C.
      30 May 2020 @ 14:35
      So move abroad and live somewhere else -- nothing is stopping you. Very few western countries will be great places to live in the coming decades for a multitude of reasons. I moved away and never looked back.
  • CX
    Cindy X.
    30 May 2020 @ 05:20
    Great interview. The main stream media never give both sides of the story. It is refreshing to hear the other side. The U.S. has used the reserve currency to alienate itself from every one, now a lonely and hollow helium balloon that will pop. Sad! Let's have a peaceful handover.
    • JC
      John C.
      30 May 2020 @ 14:32
      uh I hope you're not talking about a "peaceful handover" to China who just effectively took over Hong Kong and threw the rule book out the window, while threatening to invade Taiwan and massing troops on the border of India. CCP are criminal communist thugs who will lie, cheat, steal and destroy anything that gets in their way. Its incumbent on what few principled men & women in the West left confront this challenge right now.
  • LC
    Lee C.
    30 May 2020 @ 08:58
    Guy is spinning a narrative. He lost me at the idea China did a good job of managing Corona. Any idiot that looks at the log graph can see China "decided" the virus was over on FEB 12 2020. Dude is just talking his book
    • KT
      K T.
      30 May 2020 @ 13:17
      I don't think he means China did a "good" job managing the virus, everyone knows they lied, and are lying. China did a good job domestically "managing" the virus and the narrative. Hence they will probably do the same with a second wave.
    • JC
      John C.
      30 May 2020 @ 14:29
      China literally jailed first responder doctors who sounded the alarm, lied the whole way through re the danger, then locked up its citizens at home to die when they couldn't effectively manage the situation. Then they closed down Wuhan internally yet at the same time let overseas Chinese come back and forth to spread the disease globally. They are almost entirely to blame for this pandemic and yet we still have Westerners defending them. Strange times. But I guess if you have entire universities and faculties essentially on the CCP payroll it's not unexpected.
  • AB
    Andrew B.
    30 May 2020 @ 12:22
    I'd absolutely love to see Kyle Bass interview him. I'd pay for another tier infact!
    • JC
      John C.
      30 May 2020 @ 14:26
      That would be epic.
  • KG
    Kurt G.
    30 May 2020 @ 14:12
    I always enjoy Clark's independent views. They never come with the "company guy" bullshit you typically get. I did find his view on the US v. Huawai odd. If i understood correctly, he believes that US policy vis-a-vis Huawei is confused. I would argue that is precisely backwards. The US policy was confused until 2016 or so, but has since been rationalized. No rational country would allow an increasingly hostile country to build out and maintain its critical infrastructure. Building out a significant communications backbone? Nope. This view seems to be along the line of the naive dogmatic free trade view, which I used to hold. Essentially it holds that the ultimate goal of a country is to maximize wealth in the short run through comparative advantage and trade. The problem is this overlooks a country is more than an economy, and if you outsource your industrial capabilities to make medical supplies or microprocessors or avionics, you might find you don't have a country left after the next pandemic or war. Reversing 40 years of increasingly globalized supply chains is unlikely to happen quickly as they have been built out with significant capital investment, and it of course may not happen. The interesting thing to me though is that it would still lend itself to Clark's investment view, which is generally long EM/commodities/value over the next full cycle.
  • GO
    George O.
    29 May 2020 @ 16:37
    The fundamental error that Russel Clark is making is a complete and total divorce of fundamental economic factors with the moral and spiritual fabric that underpin those economic factors. China's primary engine of innovation the last 10-12 years has been stealing foreign technology and then improving it. The reason they have to steal? Their own citizens are terrified of having any new ideas of their own - they know that if they have a new idea and it fails, they will go to jail or be killed. Increased trade with people in other authoritarian nations where that dynamic exists just the same will not stimulate innovation leading to growth. This is a historical principle that has proven itself true time and time again. China may look like it is leading the world in initiatives right now, and it may last for several years longer, but it will not last for a long time unless they change their fundamental governmental structure away from the totalitarian model they follow. They are unwilling to do that, because for them the control of the Chinese Communist Party is far more important than the long term benefit of the people of China.
    • cc
      christopher c.
      29 May 2020 @ 16:42
      All new powers play dirty.... And communists will be communists....
    • RB
      Robert B.
      29 May 2020 @ 17:48
      The stealing of IP is interesting, although it is clearly a strategy that has been consciously employed by the CCP, it is also a deep part of their culture to find the best example in a field, and then copy it. To the point of high school students all copying and handing in the same lecture. They do not have a culture of innovation, which you could say it more tied to an individualistic mindset than the eastern, more collectivist, approach. Anyway, I wish he has said that China handled the crisis better than US/UK sooner in the interview, then I could have stopped listening earlier. When people make statements like that, and reference official numbers (even with a caveat), it is hard to take them seriously.
    • JW
      Joseph W.
      30 May 2020 @ 02:36
      Yup, they are doomed and they know it. My worry is this makes them more dangerous.
    • MS
      Martin S.
      30 May 2020 @ 08:26
      What I find fascinating is that we Americans consistently make a case that we have a lock on both innovation and freedoms. That will be our downfall. Surveillance in the US is prevalent as well, it is just somehow accepted as it is built into the economic and political status quo. Our infrastructure, or lack thereof, is turning into a drag on growth. Our underinvestment in education and hence inefficient use of human resources ditto. Our ignorance of the importance of demographics and immigration ditto. Our bullying the world with trade as well as using the dollar as a weapon ditto. Our dysfunctional political system is as much a hindrance on prosperity as the Chinese one, just in a different way. The Chinese steal IP, we rigged the world financial system to our advantage.
    • EJ
      Edward J.
      30 May 2020 @ 13:44
      Bravo Martin S. Spot on.
  • EH
    Edwin H.
    29 May 2020 @ 17:54
    Can we please get Russell Clark and Kyle Bass to debate.... PLEASE = )
    • CP
      Curt P.
      29 May 2020 @ 20:21
      That would be completely foolish.
    • MP
      Mentor P.
      30 May 2020 @ 11:12
      @Curt, it's only foolish if you find discourse between opposing views foolish. I don't think so.
  • SS
    S S.
    29 May 2020 @ 17:13
    The Thucydides Trap suggests The Number 1 most powerful nation but in decline (USA) usually gets into conflict with the Number 2 rising power (China) through a 3rd party. Taiwan is that 3rd party, It is inevitable. It is going to happen. The only reason China hasn't invaded is because of US support who is still the superior naval power. China will only invade if they can guarantee victory. Taiwan can defend itself and cause severe losses to the Chinese even though it is small. Think of how Vietnam and Afghanistan in the past have been unconquerable by far superior and powerful nations than itself i.e. USA, Russia, China. China invading Taiwan has a probability of ending CCP rule.
    • PU
      Peter U.
      29 May 2020 @ 17:21
    • CP
      Curt P.
      29 May 2020 @ 17:42
      PRC is NOT going to invade RoC. Instead PRC is (has) creating a fait accompli where RoC is undefendable and inaccessible by the USA. RoC is already completely economically intertwined with PRC, and soon it will voluntarily accept PRC security guarantee.
    • SS
      S S.
      29 May 2020 @ 17:45
      @Curt. Taiwan will not voluntarily accept PRC rule. That's why they have the leader they have right now. They have seen what has happened in Hong Kong and thought, thanks but no thanks.
    • CP
      Curt P.
      29 May 2020 @ 17:54
      @Steve. The elite of HK have long ago accepted PRC rule. As have the elite of RoC. Just as Canada long ago accepted US rule. It is only the US who is trying to retain RoC as security position in the 1st island chain. Too bad for USA, China A2AD has engulfed RoC for more than 7 years now. It's gone. Just like the SCS is gone.
    • SS
      S S.
      29 May 2020 @ 18:06
      @Curt. Taiwan has not accepted PRC rule. It has its own democratic elected leader, its own currency, its own army etc. Something Hong Kong never had. Until PRC has its flags all over Taiwan, I consider Taiwan outside of PRC rule. Taiwan will not go back to China without a fight.
    • DS
      David S.
      29 May 2020 @ 19:20
      Hong Kong is a short-term Chinese objective. - it is part of China. RoC is a long-term goal. I do not believe anything will happen in my lifetime. DLS
    • JW
      Joseph W.
      30 May 2020 @ 02:07
      I’d say a possibility, not a probability. It’s not difficult to envision US Navy parking 3 carrier groups on the outside of the island chain and running 24/7 sorties to repel Chinese invasion forces. The US knows how to fight wars. It’s what we do. China is not completely incompetent, but their experience is academic, not practice.
    • Cd
      Christiano d.
      30 May 2020 @ 10:18
      @Joseph W. US doesn't know how to prevent the spread of a virus. I wonder how these leaders would do in front of a conflict.
  • wk
    wai k.
    30 May 2020 @ 06:53
    look smart but stupid type of thing, right on deatils but wrong on substance
  • MC
    Michael C.
    30 May 2020 @ 06:33
    The guts of his thesis about middle earth makes sense. Comments about iron ore and china exporting steel were insightful. But like all the recent videos it comes back to timing the transition from deflation to inflation. Nobody knows.
  • TS
    Thierry S.
    29 May 2020 @ 07:59
    Finally a perspective not anchored in american nombrilisme.
    • PU
      Peter U.
      29 May 2020 @ 09:42
      wow a cultural ad hominem. That isn't very nice.
    • TP
      Timothy P.
      30 May 2020 @ 05:30
      You won't be so cocky once the European Union experiment implodes. Don't worry, the US will still accept your application for immigration even if we don't accept your Euros, which will be worthless.
  • DR
    Danilo R.
    29 May 2020 @ 07:59
    Ok, China fan boy. China has locked capital flows, no one wants it’s currency, it holds countries like Germany and Ecuador hostage, and has an aging demographic. No sure how it will get foreign investments as it is pummeling its PR and financial arm of HK. It is harder to get your consumer to spend than export cheap goods around the world.
    • NA
      N A.
      29 May 2020 @ 11:51
      Agreed, look at history India and china not the greatest bed fellows,If anyone has been watching lately there is a build of troops on either side china/india border, oops suddenly silk road not looking to silky
    • TP
      Timothy P.
      30 May 2020 @ 04:59
      That was the funnier parts of this interview. He thought that he could compare a nation that has a closed capital account with those that trade freely. No wonder he's getting slaughtered in the markets, he doesn't understand the basics of sovereign finance.
  • DH
    David H.
    30 May 2020 @ 04:43
    Fantastic counterpoint to the RV dominant debt deflation outlook. I think they can live together comfortably in my mind, though the effect of a rising versus falling dollar poses some short term friction. At this point, for us feeling driven to deploy our capital at least in part in productive business with a value and fundamentals matter approach, foreign and emerging markets seem like the only outlet. This leaves me with a 25% bonds, 25% gold, 25% cash, and 25% foreign value equities allocation. This interview was among the best along with Raul’s Unfolding and Lacy Hunt. Awesome job again.
  • HR
    Humberto R.
    29 May 2020 @ 19:29
    Chinese have done a better job at managing debt?
    • RM
      Robert M.
      29 May 2020 @ 23:48
      Debt to GDP: China = 48%, USA = 110%
    • BM
      Brook M.
      30 May 2020 @ 03:02
      Don’t underestimate the job they have done in stealing western technology.
  • HR
    Humberto R.
    29 May 2020 @ 17:34