Comments
Transcript
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SPIn relation to coin, bitcoins value will be equal to the status quo financial instrument it seeks to replace / enhance / supplicate. What % of all outstanding cash in the capital markets is in the riskiest assets? Of that $ value, what percentage due to slippage realizes loss through transaction fee's, time value and economic opportunity cost? Should BTC replace the value of high risk junk bonds, for example, in the short term its value will equal the dollars saved in economic time and transaction costs. For example, take the value of pension funds, multiply it by 2% (I cant find good info on trading transaction costs), that's 840B, in fee's using my rudimentary model. / that by 21000,000 coins you get $40,000 / coin. That's 120 years. Assuming 9k is the new support, that's $333.33 price increase YoY, after adjusting for swings. I just made this model up, in a few seconds. That being said, the recent low to the recent high 3k to 9k means it moved 18 years ahead in value. How many years until financial institutions spend as much on alternative investments, on BTC? idk.
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MSBTC is an even bigger bubble than the stock market
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ENBitcoin bulls seem to always strengthen my belief in gold.
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DCA great illustration here of the quality of intellect of this 'thought leader' https://twitter.com/barrysilbert/status/1144572144090845187
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CTI guess what BTC has shown for 10 years now is undeniable. This is the next Gold. And the upcoming decade will prove it. I'm moving 50% minimum of my Gold holdings to BTC during the next two quarters. Actually, almost there.
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DGWait, did he say DCG made a significant investment in imaginary real-estate in a virtual place called Decentraland? WTF?
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TBAs gold bug.....🤬 But that was a great video. Thanks. I got my toe in the water with a Bitcoin tracker (in Swedish Kroner) when Bitcoin was $4k at Christmas. Don't have the patience, ability or desire to go down the ever changing rabbit hole of cryptos, but I agree a bit as a hedge is worthwhile. Let's see what happens...
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LBIgnorance is bliss, they say, and Barry Silbert is the living proof of that delusion. He clearly knows little if anything about what money is. Therefore he likes the idea of something that will increase in value simply because there is a lot of speculation feeding it. Really? Sounds like a Ponzi scheme to me! Bitcoin displacing gold? Imposible, as a numeraire. But as a speculation? Sure. And just like all those ignorant participants in the gold market that do not have physical gold or allocated storage (i.e. they don't own any gold),he'll find out how virtual this speculation really is in due course...eventually and inevitably.
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TJExcellent discussion and well overdue on the crypto asset class. Barry offers some very interesting insights and it will be interesting to see how some of his predictions play out. I was especially intrigued by Barry’s thoughts on crypto versus gold, and he may well be proven right in his belief that over several decades crypto-currencies replace gold as the ultimate store of value, partly because crypto savvy millennials, X-Gen’s etc. inherit the gold now largely owned by boomers (and central banks). That however is almost certainly a long way into the future if indeed it ever happens and in the interim why would you not as Raoul wisely suggested own both. Both gold and cryptos have advantages and disadvantages relative to each other, as both potential stores of value and speculative asset classes. The one major problem for crypto is of course security, not just from the potential hackers, but from potentially losing your private key. It is well documented that almost a fifth of all bitcoins ever mined, have been lost, presumably through owners losing their private keys! While bullion, if you are fortunate enough to own enough of it is cumbersome to store and / or hide, you are unlikely to forget where you put it. Despite this significant drawback, I totally agree with Barry and Raoul that bitcoin and crypto are here to stay and likely to dramatically grow in value over time.
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DSReally good discussion on crypto. Thanks. IMO the biggest hurdle that cryptocurrency will face is government controls and competition with government cryptocurrencies - Bityuan, Bitdollar, Bityen. The second biggest hurdle will be crypto hacking. The fluctuation of the value of Bitcoin on a day to day basis is too great also. This is the reason RVTV could not offer membership payments in Bitcoin. I am sure that the world currencies will be digitized. I am not sure that it will be an independent digital currency. There will always be demand for Bitcoins, but at what price? Time will tell. DLS
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THInteresting discussion, that even had some substance in it :-) A couple of remarks: 1) Bitcoin is a great invention, that has produced some very significant follow-on inventions, such as self-sovereign digital identity networks and decentralized transaction management networks. Apart from speculation and the ability to take your wealth out of China, Bitcoin itself does not have a proper business case. You may argue, that it replaces gold, but why exactly Bitcoin should do it? Why not Litecoin, Ethereum or Dogecoin? The inconvenient truth is, that in Bitcoin, you pay for the brand, not for some superior technical implementation. 2) The real use case for the technology is the "Decentraland", but not as a virtual reality platform. "Decentraland" exists today around us as a non-digital version! The real world is a decentralized place. It's the digitalization of the real world, that is the big thing. To do that, you need to digitalize two things: the business processes and the parties of those processes. Once you have given every entity of the real world, i.e. all individuals, organizations and things, a self-sovereign digital identity, you can start digitalizing and decentralizing the value creation and transfer processes, i.e transactions, between these digital identities. That work is already ongoing, and it is truly fascinating. The only aspect of the Satoshi's Bitcoin invention that's not needed in that world is the Bitcoin itself. That was just the first demo of what's possible.
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BTPeter Brandt's charting update would have been useful during Crypto Week.
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JOZEC (ZCash) doing great, ZEN (Horizon, formerly known as ZenCash) not so much. Did he say MONA (i.e. Monacoin)? No way. Still glad I sold that. Tether looked fishy from the start, as will anything issued by Facebook. Need an expert update on leaders Ethereum, Monero, Factom and Ripple. Is XRP even a currency? And whether the most touted bright ideas are going anywhere: Stellar, Steem, EOS, IOTA, Cardano. There's a lot to be said for coins that are actually in use and growing, like Binance BNB, versus vague promises. Let's have Tuur Demeester back on. He was sceptical ETH and the tokens hanging off it even had a future.
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TSJust an observation: Why is it that when Raoul is talking then there is an eyecontact, but as soon as Barry starts he breaks eyecontact within 5 seconds and looks to the side? I'm sure it's not Raul being too scarry :) His body language lacks the exact same thing that all cryptos do: Trust. Selfconfessed "goldbug" commenting here :) and still liked seeing the argument for crypto.
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BElol Barry trying to discredit Gold by mentioning its use in electronics dropping...that pretty much discredited him from the start. CB covet Gold for a reason...
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MB#BuyBitcoin
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CRI'm a millennial, I'm a gamer. This was unbearable.
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DJOnce the last bitcoin is created, what will be the incentive to mine (process the blockchain). I suppose create more bitcoin.
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SCInteresting, yet not so fruitful interview.
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ROI'm sure that gold-bitcoin commercial will get a lot more play now that gold broke above $1400. It's like the "Death of Inflation" magazine cover.
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SFDoesn't gold have more utility now that a country can buy oil in gold through China's futures (oil priced in yuan and gold priced in yuan with physical settlement)? Why would a central bank sell its gold before it sells its US Treasuries (which will surely go up in supply as unfunded liabilities come due)?
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MCGold vs. Crypto is a rather apples to oranges comparison I think. Whereas gold is hoarded, crypto is treated like a hot potato. People and institutions that hoard gold aren't doing it because they want to double their money. To them, gold IS money. The USD price of gold doesn't enter into their thinking and regular purchases of gold are used as a form of saving money. The numerator and denominator is flipped around in the thinking. There just isn't enough there to believe crypto will be hoarded like gold. This makes crypto a risk on financial asset which means they will continue to get treated like a hot potato. You should be comparing crypto to junior mining shares.
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CMIs anyone noting governments' reaction to Facebook's Libra? Interesting that most governments discounted bitcoin's impact but believe FaceBook is a real player. But more importantly, they are already communicating that Libra may face regulatory requirements in order to be legal in their countries. Point- governments will not allow national currencies that they control to be replaced by a one world currency.
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bhOne constructive exercise would be for Mr Silbert in a next episode to address quantum computing and theft. Both have multiplier effects or steep discount rates. I do not know enough about quantum computing to negate Bitcoin thesis provided, but every technologist if he takes his technology acumen seriously needs to address this. Also quantifying theft starting with cut off point for general public awareness being Mt. Gox and today and how much has been documented stolen, and how much high probabilistically gone forever due to key or hardware loss based on some proper annecdotal study. As an independent thinker, hearing this episode, I would think one would want propert explanations on these 2 issues from individuals or organizations that can provide good pro con arguments. Bjørn
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SSPaint me green and call me Gumby. Pokey and I will walk the streets of Decentraland looking for a friend. Then we'll setup our digital real estate projects. Governments will tax us for the highest and best use, as the air overhead could become a digital high rise, but we haven't built it yet. Soon, digital regulators will become the digital sheriff, collecting our private wealth money as a tax penalty. After we take off our VR goggles, the door bell will ring and a guy serving us a summons from the IRS, to appear in regards to tax audit. They will claim we're laundering money in our digital cash producing laundry mat. It will be located in the basement of our future high rise building. A tax judge will sentence us life in prison, just to make an example out of us as VR pirates.. No, not a digital jail in Decentraland, but a real one. Not to worry, the Toy Story Gang will bust us out. Got to go, my real life boss is coming and I have to get back to the real world. All seriousness aside, Raoul was all for BTC in the beginning, suggested it could go to a million or maybe $100,000 to be more realistic. At a point in the future, he told everyone he sold out in the $2,000-$3,000 range. Price went to $19,000. Just to be fair, I did make a profit on BTC following Raoul thoughts. BTC price rise catalyst was Chinese money leaving mainland China. Not sure how one platform such as BTC or ETH cross-connects to other platforms for an increase in the price. Speculating on BTC because Decentraland starts booming---how and why? The cost to transact in BTC or other similar digital assets, is very expensive. Same as trading gold and diamonds. Fortunes being made on the spreads, premiums and discounts. This real world stuff is difficult, so maybe living in Decentraland is better? The movie Brainstorm was ahead of it's time. What will the porn community do with blockchain and digital?
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KDHad a good laugh, particularly at the end. Despite being a millennial and respecting Bitcoin supporters like Raoul and Keith, I remain convinced Bitcoin is going to come crashing down to zero. There is still no use case for Bitcoin and yet somehow it's going to replace a tangible asset like gold? It's like saying decentraland is going to replace real estate. Frankly I just feel sorry for the bitcoin crowd because they are going to look back on these times with embarrassment.
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ZYlove the commercial at the beginning...
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SLDownload transcript. ctrl + f "tether" No results found. I can just assume this unbalanced drivel.
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PCAt present, governments are tolerating cryptocurrencies because they are still relatively small and insignificant. If the 'free market' cryptos like Bitcoin ever become large enough to threaten the hegemony of central bank control of currency, governments will ban them, or subject them to so much regulation that they become unusable. Advocates may argue that you cannot stop the use of crypto because of its distributed nature, just like you cannot stop the use of BitTorrent, but I feel sure most people would not use cryptos if their use was illegal and detectable. Currency transactions are easier to track than illegal file downloads. The pretext for banning cryptos will be the same specious arguments that are currently being trotted out to abolish cash. It is used for money-laundering, funding terrorism, tax evasion, purchasing illegal drugs and weapons, etc. Also, central banks are working to develop their own cryptos, because they can see the value of a digital currency over which they have complete control. Governments will argue that their own digital currencies are better then the free market ones because they are centrally controlled, and the supply can be managed to suit monetary policy, and illegal transactions can be reversed. I fear that the result will be a dystopian nightmare in which all currencies are digital and under the direct control of central banks, where there is no privacy, and where governments have the ability to switch off access to money for anybody considered to be an undesirable.
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BBGreat interview, but I have a major concern in the space. Raoul: Where do you stand on Tether and Bitfinex? Barry......no answer. Tether is being sued by the NY Attorney General...... no mention of that. https://iapps.courts.state.ny.us/fbem/DocumentDisplayServlet?documentId=vIexA1b0spKOnK_PLUS_ZUGTJ3A==&system=prod Tether is a substantial portion of the trading volume for all crypto. My view is to wait until the Tether issue is solved. There will likely be a lower entry point after they are shut down, fully audited or both.
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JSI have been a big follow of the crypto currency boom, I was an early adopter and got out right before the collapse. If crypto currency lived up to the claims people make, it would be hands down better than gold or silver. The problem is that it doesnt. The coins are not decentralized. There are big problems with the underlying protocols POW and POS. Basically bit coin is not decentralized it is owned by Chinese mining companies if they were decided to give themselves unlimited coins they could with a 51 percent attack. The bitcoin network is owned be whoever has the biggest computer. It is not decentralized and it never can be with the current underlying algorithms. It may not be possible to create a decentralized network on centralized hardware.
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JLAt 31:25 “The central banks will sell their gold before they sell their ports and airports” ?
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DCThe millennium generation have been endowed with an educational system that dictates the pursuit of a university degree requires becoming encumbered with a huge debt load; they are faced with a housing market at high levels of unaffordability compared to average salaries; a jobs market where boomers are retiring later due to their debt issues thus reducing vacancy rates. And to top it off they are now being targeted by elements of the crypto industry to ditch any interest they may have in precious metals and fully pursue the narrative of cryptocurrencies (#Dropgold). I literally could weep.
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PNGoldbugs: Look at its history. Bitcoiners: Look at its future.
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CMIn watching the commercial, three benefits to digital currancy - it is secure, it is borderless, and it has utility. I agree on borderless. The past has shown that digital coins are not secure with a number of cases of stolen crypto currency (one source says $356 million in first quarter of 2019) . And still don't understand the utility unless I am a trader profiting on the currency's volatility, my business deals in the black market, or I am trying to get assets out of countries like Venezuala or China. Still not seeing it as long-term asset, governments will not allow a shadow financial system to operate over their national currency where they are not the gatekeeper.
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PVPerhaps Realvision can bring on Roy Sebag for some informed, and necessary, editorial balance?
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PVI wonder what Charles Ponzi would say about building a speculative frenzy? I guess he would agree with Silbert's strategy. No doubting blockchain. It's brilliant. For some balance on the gold argument. The following link is worth reading. https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/drop-gold-and-the-myths-we-re-told
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RNFinally! Crypto was the sole reason I subscribed to real vision. The early content on crypto with Tuur, and Trace, and Dan, and other OG’s was high quality. Then, I noticed the same old videos were being clipped and re-posted with new date stamps... and the crypto content simply evaporated. For some real feedback: 1) PLEASE implement sort by date on videos It is absurd hunting for the most recent crypto video among just a handful of re-posted old content, and EVEN worse when video date stamps are organized at random. It’s a joke. 2) PLEASE stop repurposing old clips of the same videos inside the members area. It is a waste of members time to have to click in a video with a new title, watch the first minute, only to realize it had already been watched (but posted under a different title and a different date) I’m looking forward to crypto week. Hoping it lives up to the true Real Vision standards! But quite frankly, I’m a little discouraged.
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dwThe whole reason why you own gold bullion is it's the only money that has stood the test of time thats not anyone else's liability. A bank can have a Cyprus event, A crypto exchange can get hacked, forked, /sounds like dilution to me, where as gold's historical production the amount that can be dug out of the ground per yr./ Can only be increased by 2-3% in line w/historical inflation averages. The other shit he's slinging just sounds like a more luxe version of Sims, if peeps can make a buck of course they're gonna be stoked and Elon storytell the shit out of this, and more power to this man! He's a hustler. I believe in crypto and block chain but bitcoin like the man says, is speculation and when it gets big enough the gov. And the banks will step in with there own versions. Not saying you can't dbl or triple ur money from here. But a storer of value it ain't. Lastly, the reason why c.banks own gold is they are chips at the global monetary poker table. When the debt / currency crisis happens they'll all gather around the table to discuss the next evolution of the monetary system. The ones that hold the most gold have the important seats at the table and will dictate to everyone else. They won't be asking Germany or Russia how much ethereum do you own? End of story.
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DSIs Bitcoin an asset? It is 1 and 0's, creation burns material energy, buying it triggers an opportunity cost of investment in productive capital. I do like gold-backed Block Chain Coin. Gold has many useful properties on the nano scale, and it will always be used for jewelry due to its esthetic properties.
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GHVery informative and thought provoking. The future is bright for the space but weeding through the opportunities are very difficult.
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SPA very informative discussion. I work in Tech and have never heard of Decentraland, Mona or many other things he mentioned. I’m loving Cryptoweek already!
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KAEnjoyed the interview. Lot of comparisons to gold. I don’t own gold and most of my friends do not either. I am in my mid-40s and remain extremely skeptical of crypto. The utility of comparing crypto to gold is limited since I do not see the point of owning gold. I have owned (physical) gold once in my life and I made money on it, but I consider it luck as I was scared out of my wits heading into the GFC. I agree with the other subscriber comments about government intervention. Hats off to people who are speculating and making money despite my skepticism. I will not be one of them. I just can’t get my head around the thing.
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KLI think Raoul's point on owning Gold and Bitcoin is the right investment approach and there's lots of arguments for and against Bitcoin being a store of value. But take a look at startups like Blockfi and the Celsius who are giving crypto holders interest and even loans on their holdings. The infrastructure around digital currency is certainly growing.
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MMWonder how easy it will be to convince India to switch 24 karat gold jewelry for plastic bitcoin keychains as a savings mechanism?
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SSRV is perfectly positioned to become the go to place for serious, high quality crypto research. You guys could have a Thinktank style area for crypto.
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MZI did very well speculating on the first crypto bubble (100x) and currently have a 10% allocation to ETH, so I'm hardly a crypto hater, but I'm sorry: the Drop Gold campaign is complete BS. It's a slick, simplistic, spurious piece of pure propaganda, obviously designed not to persuade "gold bugs" to change their mind but rather to convince younger investors* to buy crypto instead of following older generations* into gold. Every single claim the ad makes about gold has been totally refuted by Roy Sebag, Peter Schiff, and many others. But all you really need to do is ask yourself two questions: 1. What is it about gold that makes it such an attractive target, as opposed to stocks, bonds, fiat, etc.? and 2. Why do few gold advocates badmouth crypto but so many crypto advocates disparage gold? (I don't see any DropCrypto ads out there, do you?) *I avoid using the terms "millennial" and "baby boomer" because they are the same kind of propaganda as the DropGold ad - a term invented by marketers to sell you something you don't need.
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JNNo thoughts on DigixDao or Digix? Every DGX token represents 1 gram of gold held in a vault. Seems that gold can evolve with Crypto and grow with the market.
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SRMy take so far (after having been following this space from the early years): 1. After over a decade, "The number 1 use case is speculation" - that's all you need to know! 2. Is Bitcoin just a solution looking for a problem, when 'the problem' doesn't really exist? 3. Real world use cases - almost zero! And that's after billions have been poured (wasted?) into the space. 4. Bitcoin - just about turning fake money into real money? 5. Decentraland - anyone remember that Bruce Willis movie 'Surrogates'? Anyone really want to end up living like that? No, me neither! 6. Spend all your life in Decentraland = Massive social problems ahead? 7. Barry didn't have any answers about how to handle 'bad actors' - its still the wild west. 8. Gold to replace bitcoin - says a millennial - really? Good luck with that. 9. The killer question that no one answers - do you really think Governments around the world are going to allow uncontrolled crypto-currencies to flourish? 10. No one ever discusses the environmental impact from all the mining activity.
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FKSo basically Tron becomes reality! I hope I'm still around to see all of this come to fruition.
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JCgreat insight and knowledge here > thanks RV again for putting this type of content out... but, and its a big BUT, i don't see how you can have this conversation without raising the issue of govt regulation. The whole crypto market - and in particular Bitcoin - has a red flag under it where at any point, any govt could just come out and declare it illegal... then what? yes i know the whole point is its undetectable etc etc but a rightly pointed out below, many people would steer well clear if it was outlawed... can we address this point? Barry?
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RNUpdate: After completing the video, I would have to say that I am happy Raoul is still a crypto bull and that there is still hope that Real Vision will continue to provide timely and well researched coverage of the crypto space moving forward. This video did not disappoint. Thank you for bringing Barry back. For all the bears, it would be great if you could also bring on articulate/honest/intellectual experts from the opposing camp also to balance out our views! For all the bulls, please consider bringing back on Trace, Dan, Tuur, and any other OG's in the crypto space.
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LJi honestly don't get why he is still so attached to ethereum classic. Ethereum is so much further and bigger at this point.
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VSBarry Silbert(BS) is the male version of Alexandria O. Cortez(AOC) and they would make a great team. Both have imbecile views of the world. To say that BS is talking his book is an insult to sales -it pure hype! The line that “gold has had its day” compares to AOC ‘s “Green New Deal”‼️ BS gold has only been accepted for 5000 years. AND like AOC saying -“the world only has 12 years left” because of global warming” . The ridiculous commentary adds to the fact that he could not give one reason except “the charts for why bitcoin is up. BS let me help did you notice Hong Kong had 2 million protestors ? This is all about china and its citizens getting their money out of china.
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MMBarry is ahead of his time. From creating SecondMarket to catalyzing the digital asset trend. Boomers in particular seem to think this space is like some fictitious joke, whereas Millennials know this will be the defining tend of their generation.
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JFHas RealVision had Peter Schiff on at some point? If so, recently?
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PGLove the little 2-minute summaries and key points discussed at the end of these interviews, particularly for niche topics like crypto
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RSWhen price of money is zero, so many things and arguments can be constructed and justified.....
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SAYeah, I mean the "Death of Gold" thesis is a good marketing campaign for crypto but the guy will die in a 100 years with his thesis never having played out. First of all, gold is a Tier 1 asset on Central Bank's balance sheets which as an important anchor used in calculating how much other Tier 1 assets a bank can purchase (such as gov bonds). This is a historical international agreement, you are not going to get 200 countries to nix all the bureaucracy already created in support of this. Second, the millenials in the US may be total idiots (not a surprise there), but the millennials abroad are even bigger idiots and they will like the gold they inherit from their parents, thank you very much. If you ever lived in a printing press country like India or Italy or Eastern Europe back in the day or Venezuela today, and you don't have money to pay for electricity, you'll appreciate gold. This guy makes it sound as if Venezuela is teeming with bitcoin terminals. All it takes is a baseball bat to take care of some of that thesis. Other than that, the interview was good for the first 20 minutes. Yes crypto's only use case and there need not be another one, is to be store-of-value/payment network that is on the scale of gold. I don't think gold is going anywhere but major crypto currencies like bitcoin and ripple definitely have the potential to surpass gold as an asset class diversifier and eventually (mark my words) a Tier 1 asset for Central Banks. While legacy finance will still have a gold component, new finance will utilize crypto. So if crypto goes as big as gold, we go from $150 billion to $8 trillion which is 50x upside. That's pretty good prospects right there. You don't need to do "decentraland" or whatever other 19 years jerkoffs without kids are doing. I spent all day and night playing Warcraft in high school/college and I haven't touched that stuff in decades. Decentraland just like 2nd life will not catch on in the real world. However, a store-of-value payment network with an established financial infrastructure (futures and options markets) and regulatory acceptance is good enough for me. You have gold, the US dollar in 1940 and now crypto. These type of payment platforms don't get created all that often. Everything else that crypto manages to accomplish beyond that is total gravy and I could care less if it is not good for anything else.
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lcThis is great, thanks for sharing.
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SSThis was a great interview. Also got a few good laughs from the interview as follows: - That Gold advert - I could imagine Grant Williams and Simon Mihailovic's blood boiling at that point, that made me laugh. - Raoul's face when Barry suggested Decentraland could be worth more than Google. You could tell he wanted to burst out laughing. You never know though, when Google first started, I'm sure people would have laughed then if you would have said it would be worth $750+Billion now. On a serious note, I think Raoul got it bang on, its not a case of Gold or Bitcoin in the portfolio, but a bet on both, just allocate according to your risk tolerance. As a millenial the potential return for Bitcoin over a 30 year time horizon seems to be far superior than Gold. If I were of retirement age, a bet on Bitcoin probably wouldn't be ideal having spent my entire lifetime saving. Demographics is huge in this, Bitcoin will surely take a larger slice over time.
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WMOh dear, Mr. Silbert and Mr. Pal all I can say is ...... "You may all go to hell and I will go to Texas" .........(Precious Metals Depository)
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JHThis was excellent - many thanks, Raoul and team. Some very thought-provoking discussion. Think his take on gold is totally naive, but good to be challenged in my thinking and try to understand how he sees things. The biggest thing to me that gold has going for it is (1) it is a tangible, hard asset (Crypto, by definition, will never be this); and (2) it has a 5,000+ year history / track record of preserving purchasing power. I agree with Raoul - own both and keep an open mind.
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CBToward the latter half of the piece a thought went through my mind - If a new Atlas Shrugged is written in the near future, would John Galt say, “I will stop the data of the world”?
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mhWhat an excellent, thought provoking interview and glimpse into the future. Looking forward to the rest of Crypto Week! Thanks guys.
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JMGreat to see some crypto content here.
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TRBasic Attention Token (BAT) is good to look into as an investment in the future of privacy. Brave browser is outstanding.
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JMI think 'OneGold' responds to every limitation that Barry's advertisement mentions. What am I missing? https://www.onegold.com/howitworks
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MMMaybe the fate of bitcoin depends on when a crisis comes, short term or longer term. I dont the market is ready enough to playout as THE safe haven yet. Once shit hits the fan on short term i dont bitcoin is the nr 1 asset you think of to find cover. So it could end in a bad timing thing imo.
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MSIf crypto is a safe haven, why did it implode during both bouts of volatility we have seen in the past 18 months (1Q’18 and 4Q’18)? When financial markets are in liquidation mode, no way these things are going anywhere but down. Even if blockchain technology is ubiquitous years from now, there is no reason why crypto needs to exist as a "currency". Its only real utility is moving money illegally.
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ddduring the important FOMC week RV is focused on crypto BS
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wooh dear.....dark age we are coming at you, kindly facilitated by technological advancement. Looking forward to spending my retirement years in decentraland. cyall there
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DSIf Facebook is broken up, will it be worth more? DLS
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DSVirtual reality equipment sends structured sense data to the brain and you are reacting to those sense data. Virtual reality to me is like a chosen dream. If you are walking near a cliff, the virtual data will not save you from falling. The real world is still there. I enjoyed a virtual reality experience at the Dali Museum in Saint Petersburg, Florida. It was wonderful to look around from inside a Dali painting. The main similarity of cryptocurrency and virtual reality is they are both virtual. DLS
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IOMy thought for a long time - Ultimate case for crypto is fiat deval.
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JLCentral Banks likely know what is ahead for the globe and for their countries and they are buying not to sell it in desperation at some point. That is in my view where the guest is entirely wrong about gold - v DC
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MCPlease keep more of these crypto-related interviews coming! Fantastic
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ABGreat interview. It is always healthy in having such debate between gold and bitcoin. But this argument that bitcoin will replace gold is hard to sell. Gold has been around for 4,000 years and it has been the only money that has survived. It has chemical proprieties that makes it indestructible. So, it makes sense to speculate that gold will be around for another 4,000 years (assuming our planet still exists). Bitcoin, on the other hand, has mathematical properties that may or may not change in the future. How can we know for sure that in 100 or 500 years the blockchain will still be intact, protected by cryptography (quantum computing or other technology may break the crypto hash in seconds)? What about electromagnetic pulse weapons? It is not going to destroy the whole blockchain system but at some locations we may need another form of medium of exchange (gold/silver maybe?). For bitcoin replace gold, we need proof that bitcoin will survive for another 4,000 years which is impossible to predict! My point is this kind of discussion that bitcoin will replace gold or gold will win at the end is irrelevant. No one knows. Both can co-exist perfectly. At one point, bitcoin may be better. In my view, right know bitcoin and gold must be part of any portfolio. 10 years from now, I will re-valuate. The only big disadvantage I see in bitcoin right now is history. 4,000 years against 11 years. No one owns the truth. We can only speculate.
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DSWeaponizing the US dollar is probably the reason that some central banks are buying gold - China, Russia, Turkey, Qatar and Columbia central banks came up in a quick search of CBs buying gold. This is a great discussion on crypto currencies, but the references to central banks buying gold is a red herring. DLS
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DBA sincere "thanks" to our friends at RV for providing us with these kinds of unique insights. It was RV interviews like this with Dan Morehead and others several years ago that opened my mind to the possibilities of bitcoin and crypto. in general. I cut my teeth following investment strategies of Ben Graham and Warren Buffett, so you can see that in order to get someone like me to even consider this space, the content would have to be compelling. I am grateful for the unparalleled transfer of knowledge that RV's rich content yields. Listening to these brilliant people has not only brought new information into my realm, but has taught to think in a bigger, more open way. Raoul's interview with Barry, is another outstanding example of this opportunity to to tap into the minds of people I may never have come into contact with pre-RV. Thank you!
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DLA lot to wrap ones head around, which is the best kind of interview. Thanks!
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LSPrice and markets of the mentioned decentralland mana token: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/decentraland/
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PBThis was great. Thanks a lot for the high quality discussion! I think crypto is fiat on steroids, hence having a brilliant potential for upside...and downside ;) therefore crypto clearly is better for speculation than gold, particularly “as a medium of exchange in a virtual world” haha, is does not get anymore fiat than that...at least you can touch printed dollars or wipe your ass with them when you run out of toilet paper;) yet this indeed provides the interesting option play that crypto is! Would the western governments shut down bitcoin if it becomes too big? Would that chance become smaller the moment the bigger (pension) funds become invested in crypto? And might we get hedge funds that solely speculate in digital assets in the virtual world like decentraland? Will we get investment cases where real estate in the real world goes down, but goes through the roof in the virtual world? Imagine Druckenmiller mentioning that his currency and bonds bets in 2025 mostly lost money yet that he was bailed out by his highly profitable virtual bets resulting in another profitable 30% year? ;) Finally, crypto is just another religion right? As long as enough people believe in its value as a speculation it will have a bid.... As a speculation gold is not sexy, yet hopefully gold mining stocks might still provide some exciting returns in the months/years ahead.
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JSgood stuff guys
BARRY SILBERT: Younger generation investors do not view gold the same way that my parents or grandparents did.
There are still very few break out examples of how blockchain can or will be used for non-speculative, non-financial use cases.
The thoroughness that you see in other asset class research does not yet exist.
If history repeats, which doesn't always- but if it does, you would expect that the all-time high of 20,000 will be taken out in this next run.
RAOUL PAL: At the very beginning of Real Vision, we cared about cryptocurrency. We thought there's a future in it that was going to be an important future of the financial system. And we've gone through some booms and busts. But that whole narrative is still very important to me personally, and I think to Real Vision, and to many of you in the financial world. We know it's not going away. And one of the first guests we ever had on that brought us into this crypto world was Barry Silbert.
Barry's an old friend, and he's a great thinker in this space. He understands the juxtaposition between financial markets and the digitization of assets and cryptocurrencies and blockchain and all of these things. He's been a pioneer in the field. And it's super nice to get him back on so we can just kick around the tires of this space, and really see what's going on. It build on from the Mike Novogratz interview that we did back in October, where it starts to build on the story of where this is really going now.
And as we know, this is not a very straightforward journey. It's a very complex world we're developing here, but an exciting one. But one of the key things is Barry started an advertising campaign that to many of you is going to be the worst thing ever. It's questioning the value of gold and raising the value of cryptocurrency versus gold. And I think just to start off, I want to show you that commercial, because it's going to get some of your blood boiling and others thinking, yeah, this is dead right.
SPEAKER: Why did you invest in gold? Are you living in the past? In a digital world, gold shouldn't weigh down your portfolio. You see where things are going. Digital currencies like Bitcoin are the future. They're secure, borderless, and unlike gold, they actually have utility. Leave the pack behind. It's time to drop gold. Go digital. Go Grayscale.
RAOUL PAL: Barry, good to get you back. We figured out just now that it was what? December-
BARRY SILBERT: 2014. December 11 of December '14.
RAOUL PAL: Wow. So, it's a long time ago. Because we've been massively big supporter of crypto, blockchain, the whole thing. And you were really almost our entry into that world.
BARRY SILBERT: Right? You guys have figured it just launched, right?
RAOUL PAL: Exactly, three months prior. And so, where was Bitcoin then?
BARRY SILBERT: 350 or so.
RAOUL PAL: And where's it today?
BARRY SILBERT: About 8000. So, I got to re-watch the interview. And I guess we'll do a victory lap right now and say I was probably pretty, right.
RAOUL PAL: Yeah, I think you can say that. And that's with a huge spike up and a huge drop as well. And it's still being very right. Once to get you back, just to pick your brains to find out where we are. We're on this journey and it's a long journey. We think we know where we're going. But we don't really know. So, let's start with where you think the journey is going. And then we'll back up to where we are now. And the stuff that you're looking at.
BARRY SILBERT: Right. Well, so I think let's go back to the for the past, I guess, four and a half years. So, in 2014, I would imagine the asset class was probably only worth a couple of billion dollars. Today, Bitcoin is worth about 125 billion. I would imagine that there were only a handful of exchanges-
RAOUL PAL: In fact, your investment trust is worth- now?
BARRY SILBERT: 2 billion.
RAOUL PAL: The same size, different times.
BARRY SILBERT: Indeed. Yeah, that's true. And, yeah, good to be a first mover, I guess. Yeah, so there were probably only a handful of exchanges that you could trade off of, there was no institutional involvement in this space. When Bitcoin was discussed on popular media, it was always described as tulip bubble Ponzi scheme. So, still quite a bit of that, I guess. And then, yeah, you fast forward-
RAOUL PAL: And it was also the criminal element, it was always going to say, it's the currency of criminals.
BARRY SILBERT: Silk Road, probably, yeah, Silk Road probably existed at that point. And there was this perception that Bitcoin was only used by criminals. And so, fast forward to today, it's different. I think the asset class, look, the asset class is here to stay. The asset class, as defined as digital assets, which would include both digital currencies and these token investments. So, the asset class is here to stay.
I think it's now being looked at as potentially an